Land Transition Research Articles

Sosio-legal analysis of forest cleaning process onMarind travel district Merauke

The socio-legal analysis the process of transferring customary forest into plantation land on the marind tribe. This study aims to (1) analyze indigenous and plantation forests in the literature of legislation - (2) to describe the conservation of land function (3) to describe the Marind / Malind indigenous peoples (4) to analyze the process of natural transition (land/forest) marind. The research method used is the method of socio-legal research, which is a method of research approaching a problem through a merger between normative analysis with non-legal science approach given the law. That is by conducting studies and analysis related to forest clearance. Data collection is done by collecting primary legal materials in the form of laws and regulations and constitutional court decisions and also collecting secondary legal materials in the form of legal opinions, doctrines or theories derived from legal literature, research results, scientific articles, and related websites with research, and interviews that are then used to provide an explanation of the primary legal material. The conclusion of this research is (1) that the definition of forest in Law No. 18 of 2013 about prevention and Restriction of Forest Destruction according to the forest in the perspective of the Marind because it describes the forest as a unity of ecosystem that formed naturally and not formed because set by the government. (2) Land transition process by Marind has to go through several customary ritual processes conducted by the Marind tribe then bring up to some statement from the indigenous peoples which are called by “Letter of Release of Adat.” That letter of release than becoming evidence of land transfers from indigenous peoples to another tribe legal entity for then made for one of the requirement to manage and manufacture the Land Certificate. (3) the process of disposal of land using customary rituals and get approval from various parties Masyarakat we can conclude that the step is a step of responsibility towards future generations, so then there will be no problems and disputes in the future either to investors/buyers of land.

Smallholder land clearing and the Forest Code in the Brazilian Amazon

AbstractSmall landholders’ contribution to Amazon deforestation in Brazil has been persistent even after government actions have allowed a steep reduction in the overall annual deforestation area since 2004. We investigate land clearing and the incentives to comply versus not to comply with environmental legislation, allowing for selection into compliance or noncompliance due to unobserved perceptions of Forest Code enforcement. Our dynamic land clearing model is empirically tested through an endogenous switching regression method applied to data collected from households in the Transamazon-BR163 region between 2003 and 2014, when Forest Code enforcement supposedly increased. We show that smallholder compliance and noncompliance preferences lead to a selection problem that must be addressed in any land clearing behavior examination. We find that greater marginalization, longer land tenure and transitions to cattle grazing, but not agricultural rents, are major contributors to forest clearance and incentives not to comply with the Forest Code.

Understanding rural land use transition and regional consolidation implications in China

The changes in cultivated land and rural residential land and their interrelation are the most direct manifestation of land use transition in rural areas, which is an important basis to carry out rural land consolidation scientifically. This study constructs a conceptual model of rural land use transition and analyses the process characteristics and coupling relationship of land use transition between cultivated land and rural residential land in China in four periods from 1996 to 2016. Then, it puts forward response strategies for regional rural land consolidation. As the results show, an inverse trend between cultivated land and rural residential land, together with a certain degree of volatility demonstrated an inadequate transition in rural land use system. The types of cultivated land and rural residential land transition changed from single dominant to multiple equilibrium, but the main type of rural land use system in different stages was synchronous R negative linking. The spatial pattern of cultivated land and rural residential land transition is obviously unbalanced. The transition of rural land use system in the southeastern part of Hu Huanyong Line is active, where no transition model and process transition model play a dominant role. This area can be considered as priority for rural land consolidation in the future. Rural land consolidation should conform to the rules of land use transition, establish a multi-objective oriented regional differentiation strategy system, and promote the coordinated evolution of rural land use system.

GIS Analysis of Land-Use Change in Threatened Landscapes by Xylella fastidiosa

Land-use/land-cover analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS) application can describe and quantify the transformation of the landscape, evaluating the effectiveness of municipal planning in driving urban expansion. This approach was applied in the municipality of Spongano (Salento, South Italy) in order to evaluate the spatial heterogeneity and the transformations of the land use/land cover from 1988 to 2016. This approach was also used to examine the spread of Xylella fastidiosa, which is a plant pathogen of global importance that is reshaping the Salento landscape. The land-use maps are based on the CORINE Land Cover project classification, while the topological consistency was verified through field surveys. A change detection analysis was carried out using the land-use maps of 1988 and 2016. The most extensive land-use class is olive groves (34–36%), followed by non-irrigated arable lands and shrub and/or herbaceous vegetation associations. The main transition of land involved non-irrigated arable lands, which lost 76 ha and 23 ha to shrub and olive areas, respectively. Meanwhile, the artificial surfaces class doubled its extension, which involved mainly the transition from shrub and heterogeneous agricultural areas. However, the olive groves class is threatened by the dramatic phytosanitary condition of the area, indicating a compromised agroecosystem, which is causing a de facto transition into unproductive areas. The results highlight the inconsistency between what was planned by the urban plan in the past and how the landscape of Spongano has been changed over time. This evidence suggests that it is necessary to develop a plan based on learning by doing, in order to shape and adapt the processes of territorial transformation to the unpredictability of the ecologic, social, and economic systems, as well as ensure that these processes are always focused on environmental issues.

Disaster Governance and Community Resilience: The Law and the Role of SDMAs

Disasters have become more profound in intensity and frequent in occurrence due to climate change. The unpredictable and devastating consequences of rising global temperature has raised the alarm bells for ‘rapid and far-reaching’ transitions in land, energy and urban governance. The recent devastation due to floods in Kerala in August 2018, has brought disaster governance to the mainstream in government accountability. Despite high performance on Human Development Indicators and social infrastructure, the failure of the state government in ensuring adequate preparedness and mitigation through capacity building has pushed back the development of the state by decades. Trust deficit in the face of administrative negligence and executive callousness hindered the translation of scientific information into understandable warnings for first line responders. The havoc was significantly man made as the local administration failed to regulate blatant violations of Coastal Zone regulations even after repeated warnings from Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel report. The focus of state policy on human development has ignored the crucial aspect of ensuring active citizen participation in the development process. This has resulted in citizens becoming passive recipients of state entitlements, rather than active agents in a democracy. This paper is a critical view on disaster policies in India, which continue to ignore the decentralized institutions as crucial institutions in disaster management. The laudable role of fishermen in rescue and relief in the aftermath of Kerala floods clearly emphasizes that communities can no longer be ignored in the framework of disaster cycle. In a country which witnesses ubiquitous ‘regime of noncompliance’ to building bye laws, coastal zone regulations, land use plans and other safety laws, decentralized disaster management can help in building community resilience and ensuring accountability and transparency of government institutions. The argument gets underscored in a scenario where institutions of Disaster Management continue to focus on post disaster relief and rehabilitation, due to lack of enforcement powers of disaster management institutions

Land use and land cover change processes in China's eastern Loess Plateau

Using Landsat remote sensing images, we analyzed changes in each land use type and transitions among different land use types during land use and land cover change(LUCC) in Ningwu County, located in the eastern Loess Plateau of China, from 1990 to 2010. We found that grassland, woodland, and farmland were the main land use types in the study area, and the area of each type changed slightly from 1990 to 2010, whereas the area of water, construction land, and unused land increased greatly. For the whole area, the net change and total change were insignificant due to weak human activity intensity in most of the study area, and the LUCC was dominated by quasi-balanced two-way transitions from 1990 to 2010. The insignificant overall amount of LUCC appears to have resulted from offsetting of rapid increases in population, economic growth, and the implementation of a program to return farmland to woodland and grassland in 2000. This program converted more farmland into woodland and grassland from 2000 to 2010 than from 1990 to 2000, but reclamation of woodland and grassland for use as farmland continued from 2000 to 2010, and is a cause for concern to the local government.

The Simulation of the Whole-Body Vibration Experienced During Military Land Transit

The simulation of field-based exposures, such as the random whole-body vibration (WBV) experienced during periods of military land transit, in a laboratory setting, allows for greater control over potentially confounding factors. This paper describes a method used to simulate the WBV experienced during military land transit. Acceleration data were collected during military transit. These data were used as the command signal to control a 6 degree-of-freedom Stewart platform. The accelerations of the Stewart platform were then compared to the measured military transit accelerations to validate the approach. Our analysis identified moderate accuracy in the 0–3 Hz frequency range for both simulations. The sealed road simulation demonstrated 17, 25, and 8% error and the cross-country simulation, 4, 7, and 4% error in the x, y, and z-axes, respectively. Outside of this frequency range, the error was ≤ 2%. The accurate simulation of the mechanical WBV experienced during periods of motorised military land transit will allow future laboratory-based studies to explore the impact of these forces on Australian Defence Force personnel.

Land-Use/Land-Cover Changes and Their Influence on the Ecosystem in Chengdu City, China during the Period of 1992–2018

Due to urban expansion, economic development, and rapid population growth, land use/land cover (LULC) is changing in major cities around the globe. Quantitative analysis of LULC change is important for studying the corresponding impact on the ecosystem service value (ESV) that helps in decision-making and ecosystem conservation. Based on LULC data retrieved from remote-sensing interpretation, we computed the changes of ESV associated with the LULC dynamics using the benefits transfer method and geographic information system (GIS) technologies during the period of 1992–2018 following self-modified coefficients which were corrected by net primary productivity (NPP). This improved approach aimed to establish a regional value coefficients table for facilitating the reliable evaluation of ESV. The main objective of this research was to clarify the trend and spatial patterns of LULC changes and their influence on ecosystem service values and functions. Our results show a continuous reduction in total ESV from United States (US) $1476.25 million in 1992, to US $1410.17, $1335.10, and $1190.56 million in 2001, 2009, and 2018, respectively; such changes are attributed to a notable loss of farmland and forest land from 1992–2018. The elasticity of ESV in response to changes in LULC shows that 1% of land transition may have caused average changes of 0.28%, 0.34%, and 0.50% during the periods of 1992–2001, 2001–2009, and 2009–2018, respectively. This study provides important information useful for land resource management and for developing strategies to address the reduction of ESV.

Assessments of spatial land cover dynamic hotspots employing MODIS time-series datasets in the Ken River Basin of Central India

Nowadays, advancements in remote sensing and geographical information system (GIS) are progressively employed to combat sustainable land management issues. In the present study, advanced MODIS (MCD12Q1) time-series datasets have been utilized to identify the spatial land cover dynamic hotspots in the Ken River Basin (KRB) of Central India during the years 2001 to 2013. Annual MODIS land cover datasets were analyzed in the ArcGIS 10.2.2 environment. The “Combine” tool of the spatial analyst toolbox was employed to assign a unique combination of land cover dynamics. The result shows that the major land degradation was pronounced for natural vegetation (14.38%), and major land greening was observed for crop land (9.68%) and woody savannas (6.94%). The spatial analysis indicates that the upper KRB area has experienced the land degradation of natural vegetation class into crop land (3418.87 km2) and woody savannas (1242.23 km2) areas. The deciduous broadleaf forest of about 1043.6 km2 area was changed into woody savannas. This might be the major transition to pronounce land greening in the study area. Moreover, major inter-transitions between crop land (669.31 km2) and woody savannas (874.09 km2) were observed during the years 2001–2013. The study reveals that the major part of natural vegetation (NV) has changed into woody savannas (WS) and crop land (CL). Furthermore, the spatial analysis shows that hotspots of land cover dynamics have been observed mostly in the upper part of KRB. Overall, land transition information of the present study can be used as an early-warning land cover dynamic system for sustainable management and development of land resources.

Applying a support vector model to assess land cover changes in the Uvs Lake Basin ecoregion in Mongolia

The Uvs Lake Basin in western Mongolia is a natural world heritage site and is known for its diversity in landscape and wildlife. Recently, investigative research has shown that the protected pristine ecotone is suffering land degradation due to global warming. In order to obtain evidence of the changes over a long-term time scale, serial multi-temporal Landsat images obtained between 1995 and 2015 were used to classify land cover and land cover changes over the Basin ecoregion using a machine learning classification technique, support vector machine. Results showed that the forest land area in 1995 was 1888.48 km2 which was equivalent to 7.48% of the total area of the study site. The forest area showed considerable decrease by 301.36 km2 during the first decade (1995–2004) and 155.81 km2 during second decade (2004–2015). A total of 457.17 km2 or 24.21% of the forest land has been developed, most being changed into grassland. The major driver of such changes was illegal logging, forest fire, and pest damage. However grassland was changed primarily into bare land during the two decades. The area of glacier was decreased and primarily changed into water body. In contrast, the area of sand in the Basin ecoregion increased dramatically from 65.20 km2 in 1995 to 318.33 km2 in 2015 the increase being mostly from the transition of bare land. In summary, the drivers of the significant decrease of greenness coverage and increase of sand/bare land areas were the interaction of complicated disturbances in both anthropogenic and natural factors, in which logging, grazing, wind erosion, and global warming were the key causes.

Land Transition and Intensity Analysis of Cropland Expansion in Northern Ghana.

Cropland expansion to meet the growing demand for food and fuel is a driving factor in forest degradation. Over the next few decades, increases in the area of agricultural land are expected to be concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, which still has large tracts of unexploited land suitable for agricultural production. We analyzed land-cover change in northern Ghana between 1984 and 2015 and compared it with background social factors associated with land change. Maps from three points in time were analyzed to identify the impact of cropland expansion on the distribution of natural vegetation. Three-level intensity analysis revealed that the overall rate of change for the 31-year period was less than that of the first time interval (1984-1999); however, the overall impact on natural vegetation was substantial, and grassland in particular was reduced to a very small proportion of the area over the period. Cropland replaced only grassland during the first time interval, but also began to replace open woodland during the second interval (1999-2015). The in-depth assessment revealed that cropland expansion continued at a steady rate, but the impact on natural vegetation was not uniform across vegetation types; grassland was more vulnerable than woodland, and woodland became increasingly targeted with continual expansion of the agricultural frontier as population increased. Further validation of the socio-cultural factors associated with the observed transitions will help to identify the explicit implications and assist in developing strategies to minimize the impacts of land-use change on regional livelihoods.

Evolving Soft Locomotion in Aquatic and Terrestrial Environments: Effects of Material Properties and Environmental Transitions

Designing soft robots poses considerable challenges; automated design approaches may be particularly appealing in this field, as they promise to optimize complex multimaterial machines with very little or no human intervention. Evolutionary soft robotics is concerned with the application of optimization algorithms inspired by natural evolution to let soft robots (both their morphologies and controllers) spontaneously evolve within physically realistic simulated environments, figuring out how to satisfy a set of objectives defined by human designers. In this article, a powerful evolutionary system is put in place to perform a broad investigation on the free-form evolution of simulated walking and swimming soft robots in different environments. Three sets of experiments are reported, tackling different aspects of the evolution of soft locomotion. The first two explore the effects of different material properties on the evolution of terrestrial and aquatic soft locomotion: particularly, we show how different materials lead to the evolution of different morphologies, behaviors, and energy-performance trade-offs. It is found that within our simplified physics world, stiffer robots evolve more sophisticated and effective gaits and morphologies on land, while softer ones tend to perform better in water. The third set of experiments starts investigating the effect and potential benefits of major environmental transitions (land↔water) during evolution. Results provide interesting morphological exaptation phenomena and point out a potential asymmetry between land→water and water→land transitions: while the first type of transition appears to be detrimental, the second one seems to have some beneficial effects.

Spatial Differentiation Characteristics and Driving Forces of Forest Transition: A Case Study of Zunyi City, Guizhou

Spatial differentiation in forest transition was measured in terms of space transition and function transition using the exploratory spatial data analysis method (ESDA) and data from 2004—2014 for Zunyi city, Guizhou province, China. The validity of factors affecting forest transition was analyzed by constructing radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN) based on the data processing system (DPS). Our results will provide references for scientific understanding of the potential mechanism underlying forest transition in mountainous areas. We found that Global Moran's / of space transition and function transition of forest land was 0.0336 and 0.2323, respectively. This suggests a significant positive correlation in spatial distribution of space transition and function transition of forest land, and significant spatial aggregation. The Global Moran's / of function transition was higher than that of space transition, and the spatial aggregation characteristics of function transition were more significant than for space transition. The Global Moran's / at each time period tended to increase, and the spatial aggregation degree of the function transition and space transition was further enhanced. Hot and cold spots of space transition of forest land stably evolved, suggesting a minor spatial difference in forest land among different administrative units at the county level. The number of hot spots at the county level in function transition increased. Hot spots were intensively distributed at the western edge and continuously distributed in the northeast. The space transition and function transition of forest land were both greatly influenced by urbanization rate and second and third industries. The development of urbanization and industrialization was the main factor driving forest transition, suggesting a positive role of economic growth on forest transition in mountainous areas. The development of urbanization and industrialization is an effective approach to forest transition in mountainous areas.

Forest governance and economic values of forest ecosystem services in Vietnam

Forest ecosystems deliver valuable services to humanity. However, many forests are being degraded and their services have been undervalued. The main problem lies in the inadequate institutional arrangements for forest governance. This paper aims to assess the effects of alternative forest governance arrangements on the provision and economic values of forest ecosystem services (FES) in Vietnam. The study presents a framework for mapping land use and land cover (LULC) change stemming from actual and hypothetical changes in forest governance regimes, quantifies the resulting changes in the provision of FES, and estimates the associated economic values. In the context of the study site in the North Western uplands of Vietnam, we test three alternative forest governance scenarios: business as usual, with a dominant government role; a community-based governance regime; and a private, individual-based forestry governance regime. Scenarios are based quite closely on the way these regimes are (or might be expected to be) implemented in Vietnam. For each forest governance scenario, we map LULC changes based on land suitability analysis and transition likelihood for the period 2010 − 2020. The resulting maps are used as inputs into the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs) model, which is used to estimate the quantity of three specific FES: carbon storage/sequestration, sediment yield, and water yield. We apply economic valuation methods to value these services: the social cost of carbon is used to estimate the economic values of carbon storage/sequestration; the cost of removing sediment deposited in reservoirs is applied for valuing the reduction of sediment yield, and the residual value of water supply for hydropower generation is used for valuing water yield. The results show that forest governance regimes have a significant effect not only on forest LULC, but also on the quantity and values of FES derived from forests. The FES are differentially affected by alternative forest governance regimes: some FES increase in quantity and value under some governance regimes and decrease under others. Of the three forest governance regimes examined, there is no one regime that will always be ‘better’ than the others in terms of provisioning all considered FES. For the specific context of Vietnam, we find that the private forest governance scenario is inferior to the community-based governance scenario, as an alternative to the current state-based governance. Because our results pertain to the scenarios as constructed, rather than generally to broad categories of governance regimes, there remains the possibility that regimes can be constructed that outperform all of those examined here.

Anthropic Processes and Land-Use Change During 33 Years in Roraima, Northern Amazonia

The Amazon region has experienced a rapid rate of deforestation and land use change as a result of establishment of agricultural settlements, resulting from public policies designed to promote rural development. We analyzed land use patterns and changes in the central region of Roraima, northern Brazil, testing the hypothesis that the anthropic pressure based on the conversion of natural vegetation (forest ecotone zone and open areas of savanna and campinaranas) on agriculture and pasture, has led to the decline of forest resilience, and has not promoted development in lands converted in agricultural colonization projects, a process exacerbated by practices of burning. Satellite images from between 1984 to 2017, with field-collected data and geoprocessing techniques, allowed interpretation and analysis of seven land-use classes. Agriculturally-based human impacts were greatest in forest areas, with forest loss rates being 6.4 times greater than regeneration rates. The 39.3% reduction in natural non-forest vegetation types exceeded that of forest loss (23.8%). Repeated fires resulted in a 627.1% increase in forest fragmentation in areas heavily impacted by fire. Our study revealed that, over 33 years, deforestation and transitions of land to non-conservation uses did not lead to a system with highly productive agricultural practices, but to extensive impoverished, and degraded subsistence. The main reason was the basic unsuitability of the region´s extremely acidic/dystrophic soils on which settlements have been founded, and the predominance of low-tech, family-based, agriculture and the absence of the required technology for attaining better results.

Legal protection for the Holder of Strata-Title Certificate on Shared-Land from the Perspective of Legal Certainty

This study uses the normative juridical method with secondary data as the main source which is supported by primary data. Primary data is data obtained directly from resource persons who are considered to know all the necessary information in research. Interview method is used in collecting primary data by interviewing some respondents about the facts that exist and opinions of respondents. Sources of data are grouped into three materials include primary legal materials, secondary legal materials, tertiary legal materials. The data collection techniques are completed through library research (books and information) that discuss the issues being studied and some court decisions. The results of this study indicate that Law no. 20 of 2011 concerning apartment has not set firmly and detailed, regarding the subject of the transfer of shared-land titles. Thus, in this study, it can be concluded that the transfer of the shared-land titles does not have legal certainty to whom to switch, whether on behalf of the Association of apartment resident, or under the name of developer. The suggestion is that an amendment to Law no. 20 of 2011 should be carried on as a form of explicit regulation for the shared-land title transfer procedure to create legal certainty for SHMRS holders regarding the land transition process. Keywords: legal protection, strata-title holder, shared-land certificate, apartment, legal certainty

Time series analysis of satellite data to characterize multiple land use transitions: a case study of urban growth and agricultural land loss in India

ABSTRACTUrban land use change is one of the most impactful land transitions on the biosphere, resulting in land conversion, habitat loss, and changes in biogeochemical cycling, climate, and hydrology. Thus, understanding it is essential for global change research. Most land change detection algorithms assume linear changes. However, urban land-use changes are often nonlinear, i.e., follow multiple transitions over time. We propose a new methodology to identify multiple transitions due to urbanization with high frequency remote sensing time series. We design, implement, and evaluate a time series approach to detect the timing of urban conversion of agricultural land in India. Results show an overall accuracy of 82.11% in detecting change timing when the algorithm is applied to MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series. The proposed algorithm yields better results with raw time series than filtered time series. We discuss the usefulness of our algorithm to understand nonlinear land transitions.

Land readjustment for minimizing public expenditures on school lands: a case study of Turkey

Education infrastructure issues have been one of the most important topics in developing countries that have difficulty reserving money for education infrastructure needs, especially Turkey. Development plans have a crucial role in meeting school infrastructure needs in Turkey. Generally, the expropriation method has been used for land transitions from private to public ownership. However, scarcity of monetary resources for such land transitions and legal/technical deficiencies delays the process. The main objectives of this paper are to respond to the need of the education sector by using land management tools and to identify the most suitable land management tool for allocating basic and primary school lands free of charge. Current trends, education indicators, management responsibility and financial resources, statistical and economical information, education infrastructure needs, and qualitative-quantitative characteristics of the pupils in the Turkish education system are analyzed based on national and international reports. Then, the property right problems experienced in the process of allocating school lands are defined. Methods of transferring school lands to public ownership are examined, and the benefit-cost relationships are revealed. Land readjustment (LR) would make an important contribution to planning decisions and the implementation stage in the sustainable management of school lands.

Achieving rural spatial restructuring in China: A suitable framework to understand how structural transitions in rural residential land differ across peri-urban interface?

Since the late twentieth century, rural areas in China have experienced a rapid and far-reaching transformation of social and economic structures. Residential land in rural areas, as a type of land where rural residents live and engage in producing, is under significant pressure and face significant change as a consequence. How has rural residential land changed over time, and why it differs across peri-urban interface? This paper presents a methodology for confronting this issue. By applying an integrated framework, we explored the rural residential land transition patterns from the internal structure, i.e., rural residential land-use structural transition (RLST) and identified the driving forces from the perspective of urbanization and industrialization. Our findings show that there are three RLST patterns in China, i.e., non-agriculture, rurality and decay. During the period, the peri-urban area – Pinggu has shown the coexistence of non-agriculture and decay patterns. In particular, RLST patterns varied at different levels. Spatially, along with getting closer to urban areas came increasing complexity of RLST patterns, which formed the structure of circle layer. The various RLST patterns are closely linked to interaction and reorganization between external and internal factors, including basic condition, industrialization, urbanization and policies. Among of them, urbanization changed the internal structure of rural residential land through the population flow; while industrialization influenced the RLST through shaping the industrial structure and level of economic development. Other outstanding issues discussed in this paper relate to the implication for rural spatial restructuring and benign rural residential land transition, which can be achieved through industrial structure reshaping, population relocation and cultural regression. The findings of this study can help us better understand the process of rural residential land transition and thus have significance for the land use multifunctionality and restructuring policies in rural China.

Global change effects on land management in the Mediterranean region

Abstract The Mediterranean region faces significant challenges to supply its growing population with food and living space. The region’s potential to do so in the future is even more uncertain in the light of global change effects. Climate change will impact water availability in the region, which is already limited and often used at unsustainable rates. To investigate the effects of global change and explore alternative development pathways of Mediterranean land use, we simulated two future scenarios with different land, water and biodiversity management transitions. We adopted a land systems approach, where land use and land cover are combined with data on land management, irrigation and livestock density, taking into account the characteristics of Mediterranean multifunctional landscapes, specific agricultural products, such as permanent crops, and irrigation water demands. Future land system changes were explored using the CLUMondo model for different development pathways of the region. We constrained the withdrawal of irrigation water based on existing freshwater resources. In a ‘growth’ scenario, we simulated a hypothetical future without consideration of environmental constraints and where food production and urban expansion are main priorities. The ‘sustainability’ scenario represents a future where limited water resources are extracted in a sustainable way and where areas of high biodiversity value are protected. The growth scenario projected significant intensification of land management, and loss of agro-silvo-pastoral mosaic systems. To achieve this, we calculate that the region would need to increase water withdrawal for irrigation significantly, resulting in increased pressure on freshwater resources. The sustainability scenario presents a way of increasing food production and at the same time improving the state of water resources, wetlands and traditional landscapes. Achieving this future would require improvements of yields of rain-fed systems and efficiencies of irrigated systems. The results indicate that coordinated environmental policy together with appropriate market access are needed to steer the regions land management towards a more sustainable future while ensuring food production.