Likelihood Of Transition Research Articles

More than travel time: New accessibility index capturing the connectivity of transit services

Various qualities of transit services, including travel time, frequency, and the presence of alternative paths, affect accessibility—how easily passengers can reach their destinations by transit. Traditional accessibility metrics, such as gravity-type and cumulative-opportunity indices, rely exclusively on travel time as a proxy for travel impedance, failing to consider other qualities of transit services. This study develops a comprehensive transit-based job accessibility index that accounts for the number of feasible alternative routes and their frequency in addition to in-vehicle and out-of-vehicle travel times. It uses the General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) data and Dijkstra's shortest path algorithm to compute these components of tract-to-tract transit trips in the Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). We demonstrate that conventional accessibility indices considering only gross travel time overestimate job accessibility in the job rich downtown area and suburban train hubs, while they tend to underestimate job accessibility in places mainly served by a suburban bus system. Logistic regression analysis shows that our refined job accessibility measure explains the likelihood of transit commute considerably better than conventional measures.

Transition management in individual organizational career planning

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to introduce the subjective perspective via the transition approach to organizational career planning so that employees’ individual transition phases can be evaluated, planned and guided.Design/methodology/approachA theoretical–conceptual analysis is conducted in this paper.FindingsThe individual perspective can be included in career planning via the transition approach. By dividing the transition into individual phases, the different requirements of employees over the course of time can be analysed individually and corresponding measures (for example coaching) can be derived.Originality/valueThe added value of this paper is that organizational career planning can individually analyse employees’ transitions, using a transition approach, increasing the likelihood of a successful transition.

Error bounds for the perturbation solution of the transition density under a multi-factor CIR term structure model with weak mean-reversion effect

We consider a multi-factor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model of the term structure of interest rates with weak mean-reversion effect. We use perturbation theory to analyze its conditional characteristic function illustrated by a system of Riccati equations and derive the error bounds for the perturbation approximations. Using the Fourier inversion theorem, we clarify that the perturbation approximation of the conditional characteristic function can be applied to estimate the transition density and likelihood function. We provide their error bounds and accuracy orders. Finally, we discuss the performance of the perturbation approximation in estimating the transition density via simulation.

The effects of functional diversity on biomass production, variability, and resilience of ecosystem functions in a tritrophic system

Diverse communities can adjust their trait composition to altered environmental conditions, which may strongly influence their dynamics. Previous studies of trait-based models mainly considered only one or two trophic levels, whereas most natural system are at least tritrophic. Therefore, we investigated how the addition of trait variation to each trophic level influences population and community dynamics in a tritrophic model. Examining the phase relationships between species of adjacent trophic levels informs about the strength of top-down or bottom-up control in non-steady-state situations. Phase relationships within a trophic level highlight compensatory dynamical patterns between functionally different species, which are responsible for dampening the community temporal variability. Furthermore, even without trait variation, our tritrophic model always exhibits regions with two alternative states with either weak or strong nutrient exploitation, and correspondingly low or high biomass production at the top level. However, adding trait variation increased the basin of attraction of the high-production state, and decreased the likelihood of a critical transition from the high- to the low-production state with no apparent early warning signals. Hence, our study shows that trait variation enhances resource use efficiency, production, stability, and resilience of entire food webs.

Understanding tissue-engineered endochondral ossification; towards improved bone formation.

Endochondral ossification (EO) is the process by which the long bones of the body form and has proven to be a promising method in tissue engineering for achieving cell-mediated bone formation. The present review centred on state-of-the-art research pertaining to mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs)-mediated endochondral bone formation, focusing on the role of donor cells, extracellular matrix and host immune cells during tissue-engineered bone formation. Possible research avenues to improve graft outcome and bone output were highlighted, as well as emerging research that, when applied to tissue-engineered bone grafts, offers new promise for improving the likelihood of such grafts transition from bench to bedside.

Profiles of SAVRY risk and protective factors within male and female juvenile offenders: A latent class and latent transition analysis

This longitudinal study explored the existence of, and the transition between, latent classes based on risk/need domains of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY). The study included 4,267 male and 661 female justice-involved juveniles who had at least one SAVRY assessment completed between 2006 and 2011. A three-step approach was used for the latent class analyses (LCA): (1) A standard LCA estimated the classes; (2) the class-membership was determined; and (3) latent transition analyses estimated the likelihood of transition between the subgroups. For male adolescents, five latent classes were identified: (a) low risk/needs (36%); (b) low-moderate risk/needs (26%); (c) moderate risk/needs (11%); (d) moderate-high risk/needs (19%); and (e) high risk/needs (8%). For female adolescents, three subgroups were identified: (a) low risk/needs (30%); (b) moderate risk/needs (51%); and (c) high risk/needs (19%). Recidivism rates differentiated the subgroups, and the likelihood of transition within a 12-months timeframe was low.

Histories of Couple Formation and Migration: The Case of Foreigners in Lombardy, Italy

Migrant families have become relevant in Italy during the past decade and Lombardy is one of the Italian regions with the largest foreign presence. The aim of the article is to contribute to the international debate on the relationship between couple formation and migration event. Using data from the 2010 ORIM ( Osservatorio Regionale sull’Immigrazione e la Multietnicità) sample survey and event history techniques, we look at the main determinants of the transition to couple formation. The results show both the presence of significant time-related interrelations between the two events and the importance of the gender role in migration. Migrant men have a low propensity of couple formation in the period around the migration event. Their length of stay at destination is positively related to such propensity. Women have the highest likelihood of transition to couple formation in proximity to the migration event. However, interesting differences in the timing of union formation persist by origin backgrounds.

Corticosteroids for Preventing Postherpetic Neuralgia After Herpes Zoster Infection.

Postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) is a painful condition of persistent chronic pain following acute reactivation of varicella zoster virus. The review defines PHN as persisting or recurring pain at the site of shingles at least 1 month after the onset of the acute rash. The incidence of shingles increases with age, almost doubling in each decade after 50 years of age. Of these cases, roughly 20% go on to develop PHN, with age again being the strongest risk factor.1 The pain of PHN is frequently debilitating and can significantly affect quality of life. It is thought that the anti-inflammatory effects of corticosteroids might decrease nerve damage and prevent PHN. This Cochrane review is an update of a previous Cochrane review first published in 2008 and updated in 2010. This update concludes based on moderate-quality evidence that steroids do not provide benefit in the prevention of PHN, whereas prior reviews indicated insufficient evidence to draw a conclusion. More up-to-date data analysis methods were used in this review to provide conclusions It included all randomized controlled trials in which corticosteroids were given by oral, intramuscular, or intravenous routes within 7 days after onset of rash and in which steroids were compared to either no treatment or to placebo. Five trials with a total of 787 patients were included. The meta-analysis provides moderate-quality evidence that corticosteroids are not effective in preventing PHN 6 months after onset of acute herpetic rash (relative risk = 0.95, 95% confidence interval = 0.45 to 1.99). The review found no statistically significant difference in the secondary outcome of pain severity at 3, 6, or 12 months. Nonserious adverse events were recorded in all of the trials, and there were no statistically significant differences between steroid and placebo. Serious events, including pneumonia, myocardial infarction, cardiac insufficiency, and death, for example, were reported in three of the trials, but there were no statistically significant differences between steroid and placebo (6/376 [1.6%] and 3/379 [0.8%], respectively). Two of the trials made note of the absence of serious adverse events in the steroid groups. The Cochrane authors suggest that future trials should include measurements of function and quality of life and, furthermore, that there should be longer-term follow-up to determine an effect of steroids on the likelihood of transition from acute pain to PHN. Of the five trials included in the study, the authors of the Cochrane review were able to perform meta-analysis on only two (amounting to only 114 participants) to examine the incidence of the primary outcome. Of these two trials, one was rated as having a high risk of bias because of incomplete outcome data; the other was rated as having a low risk of bias overall. The three remaining trials were not included in the meta-analysis because outcomes were reported only at less than 1 month because of inadequate data. Two of the trials were performed at single centers, and the others, at multiple centers. Data regarding pain measurement were also lacking. The best validated pain scales, the visual analog scale or numerical descriptive scale, were not used in any of the trials. Four of the trials reported on changing pain intensity but used different methods of pain evaluation and could not be combined into the meta-analysis. Although it was not the focus of the review, two of the trials suggested that steroids might have a significant effect on reducing acute pain and in accelerating healing of acute herpes zoster in the first month. The authors suggested that further studies to assess the effect of steroids on short-term pain and PHN should be performed. Because of limited data and high risk of bias, it is difficult to draw any meaningful conclusion about the use of corticosteroids in reducing PHN after shingles. However, the existing limited evidence does not support the use of this treatment. Therefore, we assign a color rating of red (no benefit) to this treatment. Editor's Note: Brass Tacks are concise reviews of published evidence. This series is a result of collaboration between Academic Emergency Medicine and the evidence-based medicine website, www.TheNNT.com. For inquiries please contact the section editor, Shahriar Zehtabchi, MD (Shahriar.zehtabchi@downstate.edu).

Institutional Constraints and the Forest Transition in Tropical Developing Countries

The forest transition describes a reversal or turnaround in long-run land-use trends for a country or region from a period of net forest area loss to net gain. Following North, this paper constructs a model to show that effective institutions may impose additional costs on a representative economic agent converting forests to agriculture in a tropical developing country. The main outcome to emerge from the model is that an improvement in institutions accelerates the onset of a forest transition. This hypothesis is tested by examining the probability of a forest transition occurring for 101 tropical developing countries over 1990 to 2015. The empirical results suggest that the hypothesis cannot be fully rejected. However, not all the institutional indicators analyzed affect the likelihood of the forest transition, and one economy-wide indicator appears to delay the transition. Nevertheless, the results illustrate the importance of understanding how institutional indicators affect the decisions of economic agents concerning land clearing as well as forest management practices and policies.

Do Tangible User Interfaces promote social behaviour during free play? A comparison of autistic and typically-developing children playing with passive and digital construction toys

BackgroundLittle is known about the extent to which embodied digital mediation may support social engagement between children with or without autism (ASD) in free play settings. This study draws on Affordance theory and Constructionism to investigate social play behaviours associated with use of a Tangible User Interface (TUI) during free play. MethodThe study used a detailed observational and descriptive design. Two groups of children with ASD and two groups of typically developing (TD) children were filmed during a 20-minute play session with either a passive toy, or a digital toy with a TUI. Behaviours were coded according to a scheme based on Parten’s Play States. Data were described in terms of duration, frequency and the likelihood of transition to another state, given the current state. ResultsFor TD children, Parallel and Associative were the most frequently observed Play States across both conditions. For those with ASD, Parallel Play and Non-Play-Related Conversation were the most frequent states in the passive condition, while Parallel and Associative Play were the most common in the TUI condition. This group demonstrated a longer duration of co-operative play with the TUI toy compared to TD children. Both groups showed higher frequencies of social play in the TUI condition. ConclusionsSocial play states can be effectively mediated by TUIs for both TD and ASD groups. For the ASD group, repetitive behaviour with a TUI may not be inhibitory to social engagement. Practitioners may consider making TUI enabled toys available during free play opportunities.

Analysis of Impact of New Technologies in Metallurgy on the Industry Production Function and Total Factor Productivity

Identification of positive conditions for structural transformation of industries in the Russian economy and also formation of a scientific base for development of practical recommendations for industrial policy are extremely important for the fulfillment of national goals set forth in the Presidential Decree No. 204 dated May 7, 2018. From the early 2000s up till now, development of the Russian metal industry has been characterized by gradual abandonment of the traditional method of steelmaking in open-hearth furnaces as well as transition to a more progressive electric melting technology. The article assesses the impact of this technology change on total factor productivity (TFP) of metallurgical enterprises and on the functional form of the production function in the industry for the period 2008–2017, as well as the factors of transition to the new technology for metallurgical companies. The results show that the transition to the new technology was accompanied by a 24–28% increase in TFP as well as changes in the parameters of the production function, in particular, a decrease in labor and material intensity of production. An analysis of the factors influencing the likelihood of transition to the new technology has confirmed our hypotheses: the process of assets consolidation in the metallurgical industry under the control of several holdings in the 2000s was accompanied by technological re-equipment of production and construction of new facilities. Enterprises that are part of a single financial and industrial group with higher productivity and access to the world market are characterized by a higher probability of transition to the new technology. In addition, estimates of the likelihood of transition to the new technology are higher for enterprises with higher levels of productivity.

High-Growth Companies in Russia: The Influence of Affiliation on Growth Factors

High-growth companies, also known as gazelles, are an important source of economic growth. The development conditions of such companies differ by country. In case of Russia, it is enhanced by a special population structure: about 80% of Russian gazelles are affiliated with business groups. The authors set themselves the task of understanding how dependence or independence of gazelles is related to their chances of becoming fast-growing. The study shows that in Russia the standard factors that determine the likelihood of transition of independent firms to the rapid growth are statistically insignificant for affiliated firms, and even approximately do not explain the process of their transformation into high-growth companies. The authors offer a hypothesis that the most important factors of the transformation of affiliated firms into gazelles should be sought on the demand side (the possibility of growth on intracorporate orders; access to government orders; the availability of technologies that open the ways to unsaturated markets, etc.).

Economic Convergence, Capital Accumulation, and Income Traps: Empirical Evidence

This paper examines the factors that increase the likelihood of economic transition to higher income status, thereby attempting to answer the question of why some economies move to a higher income country group while others do not. Using a quintile income distribution approach, we identify 62 economies that moved to a higher quintile income group in each decade from 1960s to the 2010s out of a sample of 182 economies. Our findings show that higher physical and human capital growth and oil revenues are significantly associated with a greater probability of transitioning to higher quintile income group, although their effects vary not only across income groups within a sample period but also across different periods. Our results indicate that economies that have attained substantial capital accumulation (either physical or human, or combination thereof) and/or are blessed with natural resources have avoided income traps and demonstrated a successful and often steady transition to higher income groups.

Prevalence, transitions and factors predicting transition between frailty states among rural community-dwelling older adults in Malaysia.

ObjectivesThis study aims to describe the prevalence and transitions of frailty among rural-community dwelling older adults in Malaysia and to analyse factors associated with different states of frailty transition. Frailty was conceptualized using modified Fried phenotype from the Cardiovascular Health Study.DesignThis is a prospective longitudinal study with 12-months follow up among older adults in Malaysia.SettingKuala Pilah, a district in Negeri Sembilan, which is one of the fourteen states in Malaysia.Participants2,324 community-dwelling older Malaysians aged 60 years and older.ResultsThe overall prevalence of frailty in this study was 9.4% (95% CI 7.8–11.2). The prevalence increased at least three-fold with every 10 years of age. This increase was seen higher in women compared to men. Being frail was significantly associated with older age, women, and respondents with a higher number of chronic diseases, poor cognitive function and low socioeconomic status (p<0.05). During the 12-months follow-up, our study showed that the transition towards greater frailty states were more likely (22.9%) than transition toward lesser frailty states (19.9%) while majority (57.2%) remained unchanged. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that presence of low physical activity increased the likelihood of worsening transition towards greater frailty states by three times (OR 2.9, 95% CI 2.2–3.7) and lowered the likelihood of transition towards lesser frailty states (OR 0.3, 95% CI 0.2–0.4).ConclusionFrailty is reported among one in every eleven older adults in this study. The prevalence increased across age groups and was higher among women than men. Frailty possesses a dynamic status due to its potential reversibility. This reversibility makes it a cornerstone to delay frailty progression. Our study noted that physical activity conferred the greatest benefit as a modifiable factor in frailty prevention.

Conditional probabilities of substance use disorders and associated risk factors: Progression from first use to use disorder on alcohol, cannabis, stimulants, sedatives and opioids

BackgroundRelatively little is known about factors that may lead to the development of a substance use disorder (SUD), across a range of drug classes. This study aimed to identify factors that predict the likelihood of transition from use to SUD and the speed with which this may occur at the population level, with a focus on the impact of pre-existing mental disorders. MethodsData were collected as part of the 2007 Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing, a nationally representative survey of 8841 Australian adults. A series of discrete time survival analyses were undertaken on data pertaining to the age of onset of use and symptoms of use disorder, for alcohol, cannabis, sedatives, stimulants, and opioids, as well as the impact of pre-existing mood and anxiety disorders on the likelihood of developing a SUD. ResultsLifetime cumulative probability estimates indicated that 50.4% of stimulant, 46.6% of opioid, 39% of sedative, 37.5% of alcohol, and 34.1% of cannabis users would develop a SUD on those substances, within an estimated 14, 12, 8, 30, and 23 years after onset respectively. Pre-existing mental disorders were significantly associated with increased risk of developing a SUD for alcohol, cannabis and stimulant use disorder. ConclusionThe relative speed associated with the transition from use to SUD emphasizes the narrow window of time available to intervene, underscoring the urgency of early identification of mental health conditions and the timely provision of appropriate evidence-based interventions, which could potentially prevent the development of secondary SUDs.

The Social Brain Automatically Predicts Others' Future Mental States.

Social life requires people to predict the future: people must anticipate others' thoughts, feelings, and actions to interact with them successfully. The theory of predictive coding suggests that the social brain may meet this need by automatically predicting others' social futures. If so, when representing others' current mental state, the brain should already start representing their future states. To test this hypothesis, we used fMRI to measure female and male human participants' neural representations of mental states. Representational similarity analysis revealed that neural patterns associated with mental states currently under consideration resembled patterns of likely future states more so than patterns of unlikely future states. This effect manifested in activity across the social brain network and in medial prefrontal cortex in particular. Repetition suppression analysis also supported the social predictive coding hypothesis: considering mental states presented in predictable sequences reduced activity in the precuneus relative to unpredictable sequences. In addition to demonstrating that the brain makes automatic predictions of others' social futures, the results also demonstrate that the brain leverages a 3D representational space to make these predictions. Proximity between mental states on the psychological dimensions of rationality, social impact, and valence explained much of the association between state-specific neural pattern similarity and state transition likelihood. Together, these findings suggest that the way the brain represents the social present gives people an automatic glimpse of the social future.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT When you see a ball in flight, your brain calculates, not just its static visual features such as size and shape, but also predicts its future trajectory. Here, we investigated whether the same might hold true in the social world: when we see someone flying into a rage, does our brain automatically predict their social trajectory? In this study, we scanned participants' brain activity while they judged others' mental states. We found that neural activity associated with a given state resembled activity associated with likely future states. Additionally, unpredictable sequences of states evoked more brain activity than predictable sequences, consistent with monitoring for, and updating from, prediction errors. These results suggest that the social brain automatically predicts others' future mental states.

Building matrix population models when individuals are non-identifiable

Matrix Population Models (MPM) are among the most widely used tools in ecology and evolution. These models consider the life cycle of an individual as composed by states to construct a matrix containing the likelihood of transitions between these states as well as sexual and/or asexual per-capita offspring contributions. When individuals are identifiable one can parametrize an MPM based on survival and fertility data and average development times for every state, but some of this information is absent or incomplete for non-cohort data, or for cohort data when individuals are not identifiable. Here we introduce a simple procedure for the parameterization of an MPM that can be used with cohort data when individuals are non-identifiable; among other aspects our procedure is a novelty in that it does not require information on stage development (or stage residence) times, which current procedures require to be estimated externally, and it is a frequent source of error. We exemplify the procedure with a laboratory cohort dataset from Eratyrus mucronatus (Reduviidae, Triatominae). We also show that even if individuals are identifiable and the duration of each stage is externally estimated with no error, our procedure is simpler to use and yields the same MPM parameter estimates.

Forest management for novelty, persistence, and restoration influenced by policy and society

The ecological literature offers many conflicting recommendations for how managers should respond to ecosystem change and novelty. We propose a framework in which forest managers may achieve desired forest characteristics by combining strategies for (1) restoring historical conditions, (2) maintaining current conditions, and (3) transitioning toward novel conditions. Drawing on policy studies and the ecological and social sciences, we synthesize research on factors that shape forest management responses to ecosystem novelty and change. Although the ecological literature often suggests the likelihood of transitions to novelty, we found that a management focus on restoration and persistence strategies was supported by landowners, private and public lands policy, and forest manager capacity and culture. In this era of unprecedented change, managers and policy makers must address ecosystem novelty to achieve desired forest futures without eroding support for forest conservation and management.

The Effect of Mars‐Relevant Soil Analogs on the Water Uptake of Magnesium Perchlorate and Implications for the Near‐Surface of Mars

AbstractThe water uptake and release by perchlorate salts have been well studied since the first in situ identification of such salts in the Martian soil by the Phoenix mission in 2008. However, there have been few studies on the effect of the insoluble regolith minerals on the interaction of perchlorate with water vapor. In this work, we investigate the impact of a Mars‐relevant mineral, montmorillonite, and a Mars soil analog, Mojave Mars Simulant (MMS), on the deliquescence (transition from dry crystalline to aqueous via water vapor absorption), ice formation, and efflorescence (transition from aqueous to dry crystalline via loss of water) of pure magnesium perchlorate. We studied mixtures of magnesium perchlorate hexahydrate with either montmorillonite or MMS. Although montmorillonite and MMS are materials that may serve as nuclei for either ice nucleation or salt efflorescence, we find that these soil analogs did not affect the phase transitions of magnesium perchlorate. The salt‐mineral mixture behaved similarly, within estimated uncertainties, to pure magnesium perchlorate in all cases. Experiments were performed in both N2 and CO2 atmospheres, with no detectable difference. We use data from the Mars Science Laboratory Rover Environmental Monitoring Station instrument and the Phoenix Thermal and Electrical Conductivity Probe, as well as modeling of the shallow subsurface, to determine the likelihood of these perchlorate phase transitions occurring at Gale Crater and the northern arctic plains (Vastitas Borealis). We find that aqueous solutions are predicted in the shallow subsurface of the Phoenix landing site, but not predicted at Gale Crater.

Tropical Forests, Tipping Points, and the Social Cost of Deforestation

Recent work has suggested that tropical forest and savanna represent alternative stable states, which are subject to drastic switches at tipping points, in response to changes in rainfall patterns and other drivers. Deforestation cost studies have ignored the likelihood and possible economic impact of a forest-savanna critical transition, therefore underestimating the true social cost of deforestation. We explore the implications of a forest-savanna critical transition and propose an alternative framework for calculating the economic value of a standing tropical forest. Our framework is based on an average cost method, as opposed to currently used marginal cost methods, for the design of optimal land-use policy or payments for ecosystem services. We apply this framework to the calculation of the social cost of deforestation of the Amazon rainforest.