Transient Climate Model Simulations Research Articles

Coupled atmosphere-ocean response of the southwest Pacific to deglacial changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

The last glacial termination was characterised by millennial-scale episodes of warming and cooling that appear offset between the hemispheres. It has been proposed that this bi-polar seesaw is the result of climate system feedbacks. A key debate, which remains unresolved, concerns the relative roles of the atmosphere and oceans in transmitting these climate responses between the hemispheres. In this study we present quantitative climate proxy data to show that air temperatures in New Zealand, as recorded by mountain glaciers, tracked millennial-scale warming and cooling of local surface temperatures of the adjacent Tasman Sea throughout the last glacial termination. Both realms were dominated by warming between 18 ka and 12 ka, interrupted by a multi-centennial to millennial-scale cooling event centred on 14 ka, coincident with the Antarctic Cold Reversal. Reconciling our climate proxy evidence with a transient climate model simulation of the glacial termination, we find that the timing and amplitude of temperature changes are consistent with changing Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The southwest Pacific region displays a particularly sensitive response to AMOC intensity changes, despite its far-field situation from the North Atlantic. This sensitivity represents the combined impact of fast-acting oceanic teleconnections and regional atmosphere-ocean response associated with changes to the southern westerly winds. Our findings highlight that recent hypotheses promoting the role of southern westerlies as a critical component of deglaciation may be complementary to, rather than competitive with, the bipolar seesaw paradigm.

Sea-ice variations and trends during the Common Era in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean

Abstract. Sea ice is crucial in regulating the heat balance between the ocean and atmosphere and quintessential for supporting the prevailing Arctic food web. Due to limited and often local data availability back in time, the sensitivity of sea-ice proxies to long-term climate changes is not well constrained, which renders any comparison with palaeoclimate model simulations difficult. Here we compiled a set of marine sea-ice proxy records with a relatively high temporal resolution of at least 100 years, covering the Common Era (past 2k years) in the Greenland–North Atlantic sector of the Arctic to explore the presence of coherent long-term trends and common low-frequency variability, and we compared those data with transient climate model simulations. We used cluster analysis and empirical orthogonal functions to extract leading modes of sea-ice variability, which efficiently filtered out local variations and improved comparison between proxy records and model simulations. We find that a compilation of multiple proxy-based sea-ice reconstructions accurately reflects general long-term changes in sea-ice history, consistent with simulations from two transient climate models. Although sea-ice proxies have varying mechanistic relationships to sea-ice cover, typically differing in habitat or seasonal representation, the long-term trend recorded by proxy-based reconstructions showed a good agreement with summer minimum sea-ice area from the model simulations. The short-term variability was not as coherent between proxy-based reconstructions and model simulations. The leading mode of simulated sea ice associated with the multidecadal to centennial timescale presented a relatively low explained variance and might be explained by changes in solar radiation and/or inflow of warm Atlantic waters to the Arctic Ocean. Short variations in proxy-based reconstructions, however, are mainly associated with local factors and the ecological nature of the proxies. Therefore, a regional or large-scale view of sea-ice trends necessitates multiple spatially spread sea-ice proxy-based reconstructions, avoiding confusion between long-term regional trends and short-term local variability. Local-scale sea-ice studies, in turn, benefit from reconstructions from well-understood individual research sites.

Pollen-based reconstructions of Holocene climate trends in the eastern Mediterranean region

Abstract. There has been considerable debate about the degree to which climate has driven societal changes in the eastern Mediterranean region, partly through reliance on a limited number of qualitative records of climate changes and partly reflecting the need to disentangle the joint impact of changes in different aspects of climate. Here, we use tolerance-weighted, weighted-averaging partial least squares to derive reconstructions of the mean temperature of the coldest month (MTCO), mean temperature of the warmest month (MTWA), growing degree days above a threshold of 0 ∘C (GDD0), and plant-available moisture, which is represented by the ratio of modelled actual to equilibrium evapotranspiration (α) and corrected for past CO2 changes. This is done for 71 individual pollen records from the eastern Mediterranean region covering part or all of the interval from 12.3 ka to the present. We use these reconstructions to create regional composites that illustrate the long-term trends in each variable. We compare these composites with transient climate model simulations to explore potential causes of the observed trends. We show that the glacial–Holocene transition and the early part of the Holocene was characterised by conditions colder than the present. Rapid increases in temperature occurred between ca. 10.3 and 9.3 ka, considerably after the end of the Younger Dryas. Although the time series are characterised by centennial to millennial oscillations, the MTCO showed a gradual increase from 9 ka to the present, consistent with the expectation that winter temperatures were forced by orbitally induced increases in insolation during the Holocene. The MTWA also showed an increasing trend from 9 ka and reached a maximum of ca. 1.5 ∘C greater than the present at ca. 4.5 and 5 ka, followed by a gradual decline towards present-day conditions. A delayed response to summer insolation changes is likely a reflection of the persistence of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets; subsequent summer cooling is consistent with the expected response to insolation changes. Plant-available moisture increased rapidly after 11 ka, and conditions were wetter than today between 10 and 6 ka, but thereafter, α declined gradually. These trends likely reflect changes in atmospheric circulation and moisture advection into the region and were probably too small to influence summer temperature through land–surface feedbacks. Differences in the simulated trajectory of α in different models highlight the difficulties in reproducing circulation-driven moisture advection into the eastern Mediterranean.

Relative importance of forcings and feedbacks in the Holocene temperature conundrum

The pre-industrial Holocene provides the backdrop for the emergence of civilisations and the starting point of anthropogenic climate change. Several reconstructions show an early Holocene warming that was followed by cooling for several thousand years before Industrialisation. In contrast climate simulations show warming throughout the Holocene. Whilst reconstructed trends over ocean can be reconciled with warming through either seasonality or uncertainties, a consistent explanation for cooling trends over some land areas is missing. We present a suite of transient Holocene climate model simulations with a coupled general circulation model and show that a widespread mid- to late-Holocene cooling emerges over some regions of the northern hemisphere with the inclusion of anthropogenic land-use. This is mostly because in regions of prescribed late Holocene deforestation, the simulated early to mid-Holocene is characterised by a lower albedo than the late Holocene. Whilst this cooling through time can quantitatively explain some regional aspects of the reconstructions, the model-data agreement remains imperfect, and differences between reconstructions also hinders the evaluation. Moreover, model-dependency in the response of several feedbacks, particularly sea-ice, but potentially also clouds, means that it is difficult to uniquely attribute Holocene temperature evolution to specific factors. Future work should aim to derive a consensus-signal including uncertainties from the available proxy data which could be used to fingerprint simulations covering a range of plausible feedback strengths.

Arctic Sea Ice Loss Weakens Northern Hemisphere Summertime Storminess but Not Until the Late 21st Century

AbstractObservations show Arctic sea ice has declined and midlatitude storminess has weakened during Northern Hemisphere (NH) summertime. It is currently unclear whether Arctic sea ice loss impacts summertime storminess because most previous work focuses on other seasons. Here we quantify the impact of Arctic sea ice loss on NH summertime storminess using equilibrium and transient climate model simulations. The equilibrium simulations show mid‐to‐late 21st century Arctic sea ice loss weakens summertime storminess, but only in the presence of ocean coupling. With ocean coupling, the equator‐to‐pole temperature and atmospheric energy gradients significantly weaken due to increased surface turbulent flux in the polar region following Arctic sea ice loss. The transient simulations show Arctic sea ice loss does not significantly weaken summertime storminess until the late 21st century. Furthermore, Arctic Amplification, which is dominated by Arctic sea ice loss in the present day, does not significantly impact the present‐day weakening of summertime storminess.

The pseudo-global-warming (PGW) approach: methodology, software package PGW4ERA5 v1.1, validation, and sensitivity analyses

Abstract. The term “pseudo-global warming” (PGW) refers to a simulation strategy in regional climate modeling. The strategy consists of directly imposing large-scale changes in the climate system on a control regional climate simulation (usually representing current conditions) by modifying the boundary conditions. This differs from the traditional dynamic downscaling technique where output from a global climate model (GCM) is used to drive regional climate models (RCMs). The PGW climate changes are usually derived from a transient global climate model (GCM) simulation. The PGW approach offers several benefits, such as lowering computational requirements, flexibility in the simulation design, and avoiding biases from global climate models. However, implementing a PGW simulation is non-trivial, and care must be taken not to deteriorate the physics of the regional climate model when modifying the boundary conditions. To simplify the preparation of PGW simulations, we present a detailed description of the methodology and provide the companion software PGW4ERA5 facilitating the preparation of PGW simulations. In describing the methodology, particular attention is devoted to the adjustment of the pressure and geopotential fields. Such an adjustment is required when ensuring consistency between thermodynamical (temperature and humidity) changes on the one hand and dynamical changes on the other hand. It is demonstrated that this adjustment is important in the extratropics and highly essential in tropical and subtropical regions. We show that climate projections of PGW simulations prepared using the presented methodology are closely comparable to traditional dynamic downscaling for most climatological variables.

Reconstructing Holocene temperatures in time and space using paleoclimate data assimilation

Abstract. Paleoclimatic records provide valuable information about Holocene climate, revealing aspects of climate variability for a multitude of sites around the world. However, such data also possess limitations. Proxy networks are spatially uneven, seasonally biased, uncertain in time, and present a variety of challenges when used in concert to illustrate the complex variations of past climate. Paleoclimatic data assimilation provides one approach to reconstructing past climate that can account for the diverse nature of proxy records while maintaining the physics-based covariance structures simulated by climate models. Here, we use paleoclimate data assimilation to create a spatially complete reconstruction of temperature over the past 12 000 years using proxy data from the Temperature 12k database and output from transient climate model simulations. Following the last glacial period, the reconstruction shows Holocene temperatures warming to a peak near 6400 years ago followed by a slow cooling toward the present day, supporting a mid-Holocene which is at least as warm as the preindustrial. Sensitivity tests show that if proxies have an overlooked summer bias, some apparent mid-Holocene warmth could actually represent summer trends rather than annual mean trends. Regardless, the potential effects of proxy seasonal biases are insufficient to align the reconstructed global mean temperature with the warming trends seen in transient model simulations.

Green Sahara tipping points in transient climate model simulations of the Holocene

The ‘Greening’ and subsequent desertification of the Sahara during the early to mid-Holocene is a dramatic example of natural climate change. We analyse a suite of simulations with a newly palaeo-conditioned configuration of the HadCM3 coupled model that is able to capture an abrupt desertification of North Africa during this time. We find that this model crosses a threshold of moisture availability for vegetation at around 6000 years before present. The resultant rapid reduction in vegetation cover acts to reduce precipitation through moisture recycling and surface albedo feedbacks. Precursor drying events which are not directly forced also indicate that the model is close to a critical moisture level. Similar precursor-like events appear in a Holocene record from the East of the continent, hinting that the natural system may resemble some of the properties of this model simulation. The overall response is not fundamentally altered by the inclusion of solar irradiance variations or volcanic eruptions. The simulated timing of the abrupt transition is mostly controlled by orbital forcing and local positive feedbacks, but it is also modulated to some extent by the state of the atmosphere and ocean. Comparisons with proxy records across North Africa show good agreement with the model simulations, although the simulations remain overly dry in the East. Overall, a threshold response may present a useful model of the real transition, but more high-resolution palaeoclimate records would help to discriminate among the predictions of climate models.

A data-model perspective on the Brazilian margin surface warming from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene

The western South Atlantic along the Brazilian margin is an important region for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) because surface currents in this area transfer warm and salty waters from the Southern Hemisphere to the North Atlantic. Although the number of sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions has grown in this region, it has been challenging to explain changes in different and sometimes proximal cores. To understand the SST evolution of the Brazilian margin from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the late Holocene, we present the first SST stack (BRSST stack) for this region. We compare the BRSST stack with the outputs of the transient climate model simulation TraCE-21ka. The BRSST stack shows an LGM cooling of 1.43 °C (from −1.31 to −1.55 °C, 2σ) relative to the late Holocene, followed by deglacial warming starting at ∼ 18.8 ka. TraCE-21ka simulates this early onset of the last deglaciation. Sensitivity experiments suggest that the input of meltwater from retreating ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere triggered the post-LGM warming, which was subsequently sustained by increasing atmospheric CO2. Deglacial millennial-scale events of AMOC slowdown produced large-scale warming of the Brazilian margin not clearly distinguished by some previous studies. Analyzing our stack in its segregated components, i.e., the North Brazil Current (NBCSST stack) and Brazil Current (BCSST stack) – we noted in-phase warming at the onset of the last deglaciation, which is not found in TraCE-21ka simulations. We attributed this to underestimating the meltwater influence over the tropical Brazilian margin by the model. BRSST stack also presents episodes of abrupt cooling near periods of fast sea-level rise during the last deglaciation, which may be due to rapid AMOC reinvigoration or freshening of the Southern Ocean. Holocene climate resembles that recorded by other compilations, with no clear Holocene thermal maximum but presenting a cooling trend during the late Holocene possibly related to intensified volcanic activity. Our study indicates that the future human-induced SST change expected for the end of the 21st-century will overcome the background of natural climate variability of the last 22,000 years for the Brazilian margin.

Local summer insolation and greenhouse gas forcing drove warming and glacier retreat in New Zealand during the Holocene

Geological climate archives from the Holocene Epoch provide baseline information concerning natural climate variability. Temperate mountain glacier extent is sensitive to summer air temperature, thus geological records of past glacier length changes are a useful proxy for this climatic variable. Here we present a new cosmogenic 10Be chronology of glacier length changes at Dart Glacier in the Southern Alps, New Zealand. Prominent moraines deposited 321 ± 44 yr ago (n = 11) and 7.8 ± 0.3 ka (n = 5) show glaciers during the Little Ice Age were less extensive than during the early Holocene. This pattern of net Holocene glacier retreat is consistent with emerging data from other catchments in New Zealand and across the southern mid-latitudes. Using the physical framework of a transient global climate model simulation, we suggest that cool summers in the early Holocene were promoted by the local summer insolation minimum, together with low atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, causing an early Holocene austral glacial maximum. An insolation-driven reduction in seasonality at southern mid-latitudes may reconcile differences between early Holocene temperature reconstructions where climate proxies have different seasonal sensitivities. We suggest that rising greenhouse gas concentrations after 7 ka caused regional-scale glacier retreat and appear to be the dominant driver of multi-millennial summer temperature trends in the southern mid-latitudes during the present interglacial.

Data‐Model Comparisons of Tropical Hydroclimate Changes Over the Common Era

AbstractWe examine the evidence for large‐scale tropical hydroclimate changes over the Common Era based on a compilation of 67 tropical hydroclimate records from 55 sites and assess the consistency between the reconstructed hydroclimate changes and those simulated by transient model simulations of the last millennium. Our synthesis of the proxy records reveals several regionally coherent patterns on centennial time scales. From 800 to 1000 CE, records from the eastern Pacific and parts of Mesoamerica indicate a pronounced drying event relative to background conditions of the Common Era. In addition, 1400–1700 CE is marked by pronounced hydroclimate changes across the tropics, including dry and/or isotopically enriched conditions in South and East Asia, wet and/or isotopically depleted conditions in the central Andes and southern Amazon in South America, and fresher and/or isotopically depleted conditions in the Maritime Continent. We find notable dissimilarities between the regional hydroclimate changes and global‐scale and hemispheric‐scale temperature reconstructions, indicating that more work needs to be done to understand the mechanisms of the widespread tropical hydroclimate changes during the LIA. Apropos to previous interpretations of large‐scale reorganization of tropical Pacific climate during the LIA, we do not find support for a large‐scale southward shift of the Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone, while evidence for a strengthened Pacific Walker Circulation and/or an equatorward contraction of the monsoonal Asian‐Australian rain belt exists from limited geographic regions but require additional paleoclimate constraints. Transient climate model simulations exhibit weak forced long‐term tropical rainfall changes over the last millennium but provide several important insights to the proxy reconstructions.

The Driving Mechanisms on Southern Ocean Upwelling Change during the Last Deglaciation

We explore the change in Southern Ocean upwelling during the last deglaciation, based on proxy records and a transient climate model simulation. Our analyses suggest that, beyond a conventional mechanism of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies shift, Southern Ocean upwelling is strongly influenced by surface buoyancy forcing and the local topography. Over the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region, the zonal mean and local upwelled flows exhibited distinct evolution patterns during the last deglaciation, since they are driven by different mechanisms. The zonal mean upwelling is primarily driven by surface wind stress via zonal mean Ekman pumping, whereas local upwelling is driven by both wind and buoyancy forcing, and is tightly coupled to local topography. During the early stage of the last deglaciation, the vertical extension of the upwelled flows increased downstream of submarine ridges but decreased upstream, which led to enhanced and diminished local upwelling, downstream and upstream of the submarine ridges, respectively.

Millennial-scale interaction between the East Asian winter monsoon and El Niño-related tropical Pacific precipitation in the Holocene

Both the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and El Niño (EN) activities are vital climate modes that regulate the Pacific hydrologic cycle. However, the Holocene interactions among the EAWM, EN activities, and tropical Pacific precipitation remain unclear due to the lack of appropriate EAWM proxies. Here, we present high-resolution grain size records from the East China Sea shelf along with a transient climate model simulation to study the Holocene EAWM evolution and compare the findings with paleo-EN precipitation-related proxies records. The millennial-scale oscillations of grain size records, which are indicative of the intensity of the EAWM-driven coastal current, reveal an anti-phase coupling between the EAWM and EN-related tropical Pacific precipitation on a millennial timescale since 5.8 ka. These results, which are consistent with simulation results, indicate that the intensified EAWM could not only reduce equatorial western Pacific precipitation by reducing the sea surface temperature but also likely change boundary conditions in the tropical Pacific (i.e., the east-west Pacific temperature gradient and westerly anomaly) to favor the formation of subsequent intensive EN activities. The enhanced EN activities, inferred by the positive tropical eastern Pacific precipitation anomalies, could subsequently suppress the EAWM through anomalous low-level anticyclones and associated southerly anomalies, thereby generating intensified tropical western Pacific (mainly tropical monsoon areas) precipitation. Our study highlights these intrinsic interactions during the mid- to late Holocene and has useful implications for understanding this millennial-scale climate oscillation, which may represent periodic atmospheric exchange between high- and low-latitude climate systems by mediating the EAWM.

Global temperature modes shed light on the Holocene temperature conundrum

Reconstructions of the global mean annual temperature evolution during the Holocene yield conflicting results. One temperature reconstruction shows global cooling during the late Holocene. The other reconstruction reveals global warming. Here we show that both a global warming mode and a cooling mode emerge when performing a spatio-temporal analysis of annual temperature variability during the Holocene using data from a transient climate model simulation. The warming mode is most pronounced in the tropics. The simulated cooling mode is determined by changes in the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea-ice that are forced by orbital variations and volcanic eruptions. The warming mode dominates in the mid-Holocene, whereas the cooling mode takes over in the late Holocene. The weighted sum of the two modes yields the simulated global temperature trend evolution. Our findings have strong implications for the interpretation of proxy data and the selection of proxy locations to compute global mean temperatures.

Overestimated acceleration of the advective Brewer–Dobson circulation due to stratospheric cooling

AbstractTropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling influence the vertical structure of the atmosphere. Numerous studies have analysed the thermal expansion of the troposphere, however, stratospheric cooling reverses the sign of this shift in the middle stratosphere, causing a downward shift in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. This is a robust feature in transient climate model simulations, but its impact is commonly unappreciated. Here, we quantify the trend difference of the residual mean vertical velocity (), a proxy for diagnosing the advective Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) strength, which arises from implicit neglect of the shrinking distance between stratospheric pressure levels in the CCMI‐1 (Chemistry‐Climate Model Initiative part 1) data request. There, a log‐pressure formula with constant scale height is recommended to compute . However, stratospheric cooling in transient climate simulations causes a reduction of the geometrical distance between pressure levels and thereby also the scale height significantly decreases over time. Using the general scale height definition for the transformation, the trends are therefore smaller. In both cases, the units are m·s−1, but in the latter case it is the constant measure of length geopotential metres and not log‐pressure metres. We quantify that, due to the temperature dependence of log‐pressure metres, past studies that based trend analyses on log‐pressure overestimated the advective BDC acceleration by ∼ 20%. This result is consistent among the CCMI‐1 projections over the 1960–2100 period. We highlight that other diagnostics can also be affected by the neglect of the declining stratospheric pressure level distance. A detailed description of the diagnostics is necessary for consistent assessments of trends. Data processing tools should generally not include the constant scale height assumption if the data are used for trend analyses.

Response of heterogeneous rainfall variability in East Asia to Hadley circulation reorganization during the late Quaternary

The Quaternary East Asian summer rainfall evolution reconstructed with the Chinese speleothem δ18O records shows the consistency throughout the region of East Asia, and has long been considered equivalent to the monsoon intensity. Its variation and teleconnection with global climate were usually interpreted by the meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). However, many other proxy records, climate simulations and meteorological observations suggest the inconsistent rainfall patterns in the different regions of East Asia on multi-timescales. Such spatial heterogeneity in Quaternary East Asian summer rainfall indicates that the hydroclimate in this region is not fully paced by the migration of the ITCZ. Here, we report a sediment record of rainfall evolution during the last 400 ka in the northern East China Sea, and this record, in combination with a transient climate model simulation, indicates an out-of-phase relationship between rainfall over middle-southeastern East Asia and northern and southwestern East Asia on the precession band, with high boreal summer insolation corresponding to the increased rainfall intensity in the northern and southwestern East Asia, however, decreased rainfall intensity in the middle East Asia. We attribute this regional heterogeneity in East Asian rainfall to the reorganization of the Hadley circulation, including shifts in the ascending branch (ITCZ) and descending branch (subtropical westerly jet), in response to changes in the hemispheric meridional temperature gradient. Our results highlight the crucial role of the Hadley circulation in the East Asian hydroclimate and have important implications for future climate projections.

Rapid neoglaciation on Ellesmere Island promoted by enhanced summer snowfall in a transient climate model simulation of the middle-late-Holocene

Arctic neoglaciation following the Holocene Thermal Maximum is an important feature of late-Holocene climate. We investigated this phenomenon using a transient 6000-year simulation with the CESM-CAM5 climate model driven by orbital forcing, greenhouse gas concentrations, and a land use reconstruction. During the first three millennia analyzed here (6–3 ka), mean Arctic snow depth increases, despite enhanced greenhouse forcing. Superimposed on this secular trend is a very abrupt increase in snow depth between 5 and 4.9 ka on Ellesmere Island and the Greenland coasts, in rough agreement with the timing of observed neoglaciation in the region. This transition is especially extreme on Ellesmere Island, where end-of-summer snow coverage jumps from nearly 0 to virtually 100% in 1 year, and snow depth increases to the model’s imposed maximum within 15 years. This climatic shift involves more than the Milankovitch-based expectation of cooler summers causing less snow melt. Coincident with the onset of the cold regime are two consecutive summers with heavy snowfall on Ellesmere Island that help to short-circuit the normal seasonal melt cycle. These heavy snow seasons are caused by synoptic-scale, cyclonic circulation anomalies over the Arctic Ocean and Canadian Archipelago, including an extremely positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Our study reveals that a climate model can produce sudden climatic transitions in this region prone to glacial inception and exceptional variability, due to a dynamic mechanism (more summer snowfall induced by an extreme circulation anomaly) that augments the traditional Milankovitch thermodynamic explanation of orbitally induced glacier development.

Empirical estimate of the signal content of Holocene temperature proxy records

Abstract. Proxy records from climate archives provide evidence about past climate changes, but the recorded signal is affected by non-climate-related effects as well as time uncertainty. As proxy-based climate reconstructions are frequently used to test climate models and to quantitatively infer past climate, we need to improve our understanding of the proxy record signal content as well as the uncertainties involved. In this study, we empirically estimate signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) of temperature proxy records used in global compilations of the middle to late Holocene (last 6000 years). This is achieved through a comparison of the correlation of proxy time series from nearby sites of three compilations and model time series extracted at the proxy sites from two transient climate model simulations: a Holocene simulation of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model and the Holocene part of the TraCE-21ka simulation. In all comparisons, we found the mean correlations of the proxy time series on centennial to millennial timescales to be low (R<0.2), even for nearby sites, which resulted in low SNR estimates. The estimated SNRs depend on the assumed time uncertainty of the proxy records, the timescale analysed, and the model simulation used. Using the spatial correlation structure of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM simulation, the estimated SNRs on centennial timescales ranged from 0.05 – assuming no time uncertainty – to 0.5 for a time uncertainty of 400 years. On millennial timescales, the estimated SNRs were generally higher. Use of the TraCE-21ka correlation structure generally resulted in lower SNR estimates than for ECHAM5/MPI-OM. As the number of available high-resolution proxy records continues to grow, a more detailed analysis of the signal content of specific proxy types should become feasible in the near future. The estimated low signal content of Holocene temperature compilations should caution against over-interpretation of these multi-proxy and multisite syntheses until further studies are able to facilitate a better characterisation of the signal content in paleoclimate records.

Orbital precession modulates interannual rainfall variability, as recorded in an Early Pleistocene speleothem

Abstract Interannual variability of African rainfall impacts local and global communities, but its past behavior and response in future climate projections are poorly understood. This is primarily due to short instrumental records and a lack of long high-resolution palaeoclimate proxy records. Here we present an annually resolved 91,000 year Early Pleistocene record of hydroclimate from the early hominin-bearing Makapansgat Valley, South Africa. Changes in speleothem annual band thickness are dominated by precession over four consecutive orbital cycles with strong millennial-scale periodicity. The frequency of interannual variability (2.0–6.5 yr oscillations) does not change systematically, yet its amplitude is modulated by the orbital forcing. These long-term characteristics of interannual variability are reproduced with transient climate model simulations of water balance for South Africa from the Late Pleistocene to Recent. Based on these results, we suggest that the frequency of interannual variations in southern African rainfall is likely to be stable under anthropogenic warming, but that the size of year-to-year variations may increase. We see an orbitally forced increase in the amplitude of interannual climate variability between 1.8 Ma and 1.7 Ma coincident with the first evidence for the Acheulean stone tool technology.

Climate and marine biogeochemistry during the Holocene from transient model simulations

Abstract. Climate and marine biogeochemistry changes over the Holocene are investigated based on transient global climate and biogeochemistry model simulations over the last 9500 years. The simulations are forced by accelerated and non-accelerated orbital parameters, respectively, and atmospheric pCO2, CH4, and N2O. The analysis focusses on key climatic parameters of relevance to the marine biogeochemistry, and on the physical and biogeochemical processes that drive atmosphere–ocean carbon fluxes and changes in the oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). The simulated global mean ocean temperature is characterized by a mid-Holocene cooling and a late Holocene warming, a common feature among Holocene climate simulations which, however, contradicts a proxy-derived mid-Holocene climate optimum. As the most significant result, and only in the non-accelerated simulation, we find a substantial increase in volume of the OMZ in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) continuing into the late Holocene. The concurrent increase in apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) and age of the water mass within the EEP OMZ can be attributed to a weakening of the deep northward inflow into the Pacific. This results in a large-scale mid-to-late Holocene increase in AOU in most of the Pacific and hence the source regions of the EEP OMZ waters. The simulated expansion of the EEP OMZ raises the question of whether the deoxygenation that has been observed over the last 5 decades could be a – perhaps accelerated – continuation of an orbitally driven decline in oxygen. Changes in global mean biological production and export of detritus remain of the order of 10 %, with generally lower values in the mid-Holocene. The simulated atmosphere–ocean CO2 flux would result in atmospheric pCO2 changes of similar magnitudes to those observed for the Holocene, but with different timing. More technically, as the increase in EEP OMZ volume can only be simulated with the non-accelerated model simulation, non-accelerated model simulations are required for an analysis of the marine biogeochemistry in the Holocene. Notably, the long control experiment also displays similar magnitude variability to the transient experiment for some parameters. This indicates that also long control runs are required when investigating Holocene climate and marine biogeochemistry, and that some of the Holocene variations could be attributed to internal variability of the atmosphere–ocean system.