Transboundary Water Conflicts Research Articles

Maintaining status quo or realizing transformation in transboundary water conflicts? The power–interests–identity nexus in the Helmand river basin

ABSTRACT This paper contributes to the critical hydropolitics literature by introducing the power–interests–identity nexus framework and addresses how it shapes decisions and (re)actions to transform or maintain water conflicts. The framework is investigated using the Helmand/Hirmand river basin, shared by Afghanistan and Iran. It elucidates which factors led to the transformation of Iran–Afghanistan water conflicts and the signing of the 1973 Treaty, as well as the influential factors that have contributed to its maintenance in the 2020s. The results demonstrate using the framework provides comprehensive insight by identifying the influential latent factors of transboundary water arrangements.

Improving efficiency and sustainability of water-agriculture-energy nexus in a transboundary river basin under climate change: A double-sided stochastic factional optimization method

In this study, a double-sided stochastic fractional programming (DSFP) method is developed for identifying optimal water-allocation schemes of water-agriculture-energy nexus (WAEN) system under considering climate change impact. The advantages of DSFP are (i) handling complex uncertainty of double-sided randomness, (ii) addressing conflicting objectives with optimal system efficiency, and (iii) achieving trade-off between marginal benefit and system risk. Then, a DSFP-based water-agriculture-energy nexus (DSFP-WAEN) model is formulated for water resources allocation in a transboundary river basin of Central Asia, where 48 scenarios are designed to examine the impacts of climate change, irrigation efficiency, and system risk over a long-term planning horizon (2026–2050). Results reveal that: (i) among all agricultural activities, cash crop cultivation shows the greatest change in adaption to climate change, with the share of cash crop cultivation increasing to 70.7% by 2050 under RCP4.5; (ii) Kazakhstan, which has the largest irrigation needs and is the county most sensitive to water supply risk, should be the first to be constrained in the case of severe water shortages and poor delivery levels; (iii) the improvement of irrigation efficiency can increase the inflow to the Aral Sea by 2.7%, and reduce water loss of infield irrigation by 11.3% even under severe water shortage (i.e. p = 0.01). Compared with the models based on the traditional stochastic programming and single-objective methods, DSFP-WAEN has advantages in optimizing water-use efficiency and reflecting system complexity with flexible solutions. To coordinate transboundary water conflicts, strategies from both demand and supply sides related to quota management and water-saving techniques are suggested for the Syr Darya River basin, such as clean energy transition, drip irrigation promotion and canal system improvement. From a long-term planning perspective, WAEN schemes should be adapted to risk attitude and climate change, which can help address water scarcity and achieve future sustainability.

An approach to complex transboundary water management in Central Asia: Evolutionary cooperation in transboundary basins under the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus

Water-related issues in transboundary basins are generally complicated by the challenges of climate change, the historical evolution of the basin characteristics, and the different interests of the riparian countries. Therefore, dealing with water-sharing and water cooperation problems among basin countries needs to be based on multi-factor system analysis in the context of regional water, energy, food (land) resources, and ecosystems. In the present study, the Aral Sea basin in Central Asia, where transboundary water problems are extremely prominent and complex, was selected as the research area. Firstly, the characteristics of the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus of the Aral Sea basin are analyzed. Then, based on the game theory, a multi-objective game model is constructed, and the multi-objective evolutionary game process and evolutionary stable strategies (ESSs) of both the upstream and downstream countries are explored. Finally, the evolutionary stable strategy under the intervention of the basin commission is simulated. The results show that there are obvious reciprocal feedbacks among water, land, energy, and ecosystem in the Aral Sea basin, and the uneven distribution of natural resources, fragile ecosystems, and conflicting demands of multiple actors lead to the unstable evolution of the nexus. Driven by the maximization of upstream and downstream countries’ respective interests, the optimal stabilization strategy of the system cannot be realized. Whereas, the introduction of the basin commission intervention and its restraint mechanism is conducive to promoting cooperation and maximizing the overall benefits of the basin. The incentives and penalties of the basin commission have significant effects on whether the system can reach Pareto optimality, and higher incentive coefficient and penalty coefficient help the system converge to the ideal state more quickly. The evolution of the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus based on the perspective of the whole basin can provide theoretical support for dealing with the transboundary water conflicts, and the cooperation strategy aiming at maximizing the overall benefits of the basin can provide decision-making basis for promoting transboundary water cooperation and synergistic development of the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus.

An Ecosystem Valuation for Enhanced Transboundary Water Cooperation in the Kabul River Basin

An Ecosystem Valuation for Enhanced Transboundary Water Cooperation in the Kabul River Basin

Resolving Trans-Boundary Water Conflicts: Third-Party Mediation Using an Inverse Approach of GMCR Under Incomplete Preference Environments

Resolving Trans-Boundary Water Conflicts: Third-Party Mediation Using an Inverse Approach of GMCR Under Incomplete Preference Environments

Water resources management scenarios and transboundary hydro-political concerns in Iran’s eastern border areas

Motives: Since the main sources of some rivers are located in neighbouring countries, hydrological issues in the eastern part of Iran are critical. The water dispute between Iran and the neighbouring Afghanistan is related to environmental issues and human health.Aim: The aim of this study was to demonstrate how transboundary water conflicts increase human vulnerability through economic issues such as reduced productivity in the agricultural sector.Results: The study’s originality lies in the application of the positive mathematical programming approach to the agricultural sector, specifically in evaluating the impact of water pricing policies on crop selection and irrigation water use. A quadratic cost function was calibrated to develop three scenarios of water resources consumption (30%, 40%, and 70% reduction for farmers in group 1, and 10%, 25%, and 75% reduction for farmers in group 2) and price increase (70%, 80%, and 100% increase). The calibration of the quadratic cost function revealed an increase in irrigation efficiency (water resources consumption) as well as an increase in the region’s irrigated area.

Regional Mediation in African Transboundary Rivers Conflicts: Assessing the African Union’s Role in the Renaissance Dam Negotiations

Abstract In April 2021, Egypt and Sudan announced the failure of the African Union (au)-led negotiations over the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (gerd). Why did the au fail to achieve progress on the contested issues in spite of the parties’ rhetorical commitment to settle these issues, the mediation capacity that the au developed over the last decade, and its comparative advantage as a regional organization close to the dispute? This article addresses this question. It integrates regional conflict resolution literature and water diplomacy approaches to identify the conditions of successful mediation in transboundary water conflicts, a task which contributes to ongoing au efforts to learn from past mediation experiences.

Colorado River Basin: conflict management under hydrologic stress and institutional gridlock

ABSTRACT In the Colorado River, hydrologic and legal conditions create difficulty in sharing water effectively and equitably during a deep 22-year drought. Demand outstrips supply, water entitlements are over-appropriated, and institutional arrangements are nearly gridlocked. The crisis poses challenges not experienced before, and these may worsen with climate change and warming. It threatens the water supplies of major cities like Los Angeles and Las Vegas, as well as critical agricultural regions in the U.S. The background began to unfold more than 100 years ago, prior to signing of the Colorado River Compact in 1922. The decade prior to 1922 was relatively wet, and the Compact made water allocations that are not sustainable. Institutional challenges are caused by the rigidity of the rules governing river operations and the complex array of stakeholder organizations and management authorities. Although a wet 2022-3 winter provided temporary and only incremental relief, without a hydrologic reversal and/or effective regulatory controls, water levels in Lakes Powell and Mead will decline further and no storage water will be available to satisfy downstream interests. To avoid that scenario, it is likely that drastic curtailments will occur but forecasting them involves uncertainties and speculation. Achieving effective river basin management during the drought will likely require involuntary cuts, voluntary cuts, and possibly litigation, which will be expensive and long-lasting. Federal funding may help on a temporary basis. Involuntary cuts will require a forceful mechanism to push ahead with solutions despite lack of consensus. Lessons include the challenges in creating equity and sustainable conditions in the dry regions with water right systems based on prior appropriation and how to manage transboundary water conflicts within a federal system of government.

How to Incorporate System Archetypes into Water Conflicts Analysis: Application in Euphrates, Nile, Zambezi, and Lake Kivu Transboundary Basins

This paper introduces and fleshes out a systemic method designed to develop a holistic understanding of states’ behavior in transboundary water conflict and cooperation. Such an approach leverages causality analysis to capture the deep structural characteristics that shape the hydropolitics dynamics and may lead to the evolution of destructive behaviors with severe consequences. The paper does so by using the concepts of the system archetype. The system archetype analysis offers insight into the underlying structures from which the dynamics of hydropolitics emerge over time—cycles of conflict and cooperation. The approach provides riparian states with a diagnostic tool to recognize patterns of destructive behaviors in the management of shared water resources and warning signs that are usually too long overlooked. Using four case studies from different continents, this paper shows how a systems archetype approach is useful for developing a big-picture understanding of the hydropolitical problem, its dynamics, and potential resolution pathways. The systemic lessons learned from these case studies can be used in other contexts, helping policymakers anticipate the destructive and constructive dynamics leading to conflict and cooperation.

Data sharing in transboundary water management

Half the world's population resides within 310 transboundary lake and river basins shared among 151 riparian nations. Approximately 60% of these basins lack cooperative frameworks to share water. The complexities of sharing water necessitate identifying approaches for managing transboundary international freshwater resources. While much has been written about the histories, theory, and mechanisms of transboundary water management, conflict, and cooperation among riparian nations, we draw attention to scholarship written about what we believe is the central tool for cooperation: data and data sharing. The 1997 United Nations' Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses (UN Watercourse Convention) recognizes sharing water resources data is vital to river basin cooperation. Data sharing builds trust between riparian states, aids in mitigating conflict, and improves environmental, economic, and social outcomes. Despite calls to increase data sharing in transboundary basins to support cooperative management, few papers review the role of data sharing in transboundary water management, including how often and what types of water resources data and information are shared. We synthesize the role of data in conflict and collaboration from peer-reviewed papers on transboundary water management from the year the UN Watercourse Convention went into force, 2014 to May 2022. We outline what scholars argue are the types of water-related data to be shared, the frequency of data sharing, and the mechanisms for sharing data for facilitating cooperation in transboundary waters.

Desalination and Transboundary Water Conflict and Cooperation: A Mixed-Method Empirical Approach

The impact of the adoption of desalination on relations between parties in transboundary settings is unclear. The previous literature has indicated that the effect of desalination on conflict and cooperation is an empirical matter. By reducing scarcity and variability, the adoption of desalination is likely to reduce the potential for conflict, though it may also create new conflicts, for instance, over water of marginal quality or over issues of equity. Its effect on cooperation is even more ambiguous, as it both offers parties more flexibility, which is likely to increase cooperation, but can be implemented unilaterally, which may reduce the need for cooperation. The little empirical work that has been published investigating these impacts has been largely based on anecdotal evidence or individual case studies. This paper presents a more systematic look at these impacts, using a mixed-method (quantitative and qualitative) analysis of interstate interactions before and after the adoption of large-scale seawater desalination. The results support the contention that while desalination has the potential to reduce conflict and increase cooperation, the impact of desalination on hydropolitics cannot be assumed a priori. Rather, it is largely context-dependent, and as such, it should not be viewed as a technological fix for transboundary water relations.

Mixing waters: stakeholder influence in transboundary water conflict and cooperation

ABSTRACT Understanding the factors that contribute to transboundary water conflict and cooperation is critical to improve governance and protect water resources. State interactions are shaped by multiple pressures and multi-scalar actors. This research assesses how local stakeholders influence the state through an analysis of power, water quality-related vulnerability and risk. Based on the findings, local stakeholders directly and indirectly support high-intensity cooperation over transboundary lakes and can foster low-intensity conflict to enable a greater representation of needs. Local actors also mutually influence state and international processes causing a multi-scalar impact and response to the states’ transboundary water quality interactions.

Transboundary water governance and water conflicts in the Lake Victoria Basin: an adaptive and integrative management approach

Lake Victoria Basin is a transboundary natural resource shared by five East African Community countries. The Basin experiences unsustainable water resource utilization and management which creates conflicts among the users. This objective of this study was to examine the contribution of transboundary water governance systems in managing the water conflicts in the Basin. Qualitative data were collected through interviews and focused group discussions where respondents were clustered and purposively selected while quantitative data were collected through questionnaires and analyzed using SPSS. Lake Victoria Basin Governance Performance Composite Index was also used to assess the effectiveness of governance systems in the Basin. The study findings revealed that: transboundary water governance systems with participation, integration, legal frameworks, collaboration, equity and adaptability, all with P < 0.05 negatively and significantly influence the causes of conflicts and water management challenges; integration (20%) and equity (19%) contribute highly to the model; and both adaptive and integrative water governance systems are less effective with a score of 34% and 35% respectively. The study concludes that the current management systems require an adaptive and integrative governance system. The study recommends harmonization of regional laws and policies governing the Basin and involvement of local communities in decision making.

Transboundary water cooperation and conflict resolution in the Southern African region: influence of the 1890 Anglo-Germany Treaty

The availability, distribution and control of freshwater resources have been at the centre of the human story since the start of the Neolithic revolution roughly 12,000 years ago. With the advent of the modern nation state and its attendant emphasis on sovereignty, self-sufficiency and rivalry, it comes as no surprise that interactions between states over shared watercourses have at times been tense and conflictual. This fact was elaborated by the Ex- UN Secretary General; Kofi Annan, Message during the World Water Day on 22nd March, 2002. He warned that… “Fierce national competition over water resources has prompted fears that water issues contain the seeds of violent conflict. By the year 2025 two thirds of the world’s population is likely to live in countries with moderate or severe water shortages as demand for water approaches the limit of the available supply”. Water as a fugitive resource, respects neither political boundaries nor commonly accepted notions of fairness or equity, hence posed the most complex management challenges to water managers of today. In the SADC region, shared waters cannot be viewed in a purely national context due to its fluidity and the mobility of its nature. It is factual that, over 70% of the water bodies in the region are transboundary in nature. In terms of state practice, the concept of community of interest is commonly traced back to a French decree of 1792 dealing with the opening of the Scheldt River to Navigation. The position expressed in this decree was quickly adopted in a number of instruments concerned primarily with rights of navigation in international rivers, but also in some early agreements not restricted to navigational uses. Therefore, the lakes, and watercourses which form the frontier between the two states or which are situated at the territory of both or which flow into the said lakes and watercourses shall continue to be considered as “common’. In this regard one may wish to refer to the recent global instruments namely; the UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational uses of International Water (1997) which came into force on 17th August 2014 and the Convention on the Protection and Uses of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (1992) which came into force on 6th October, 1996 and further in 2016 became an official global legal framework for transboundary water cooperation. These instruments are regarded as a vital step in building a strong foundation for global principles on water management and governance. Legal agreements between states during the colonial era as well as post-independence in the Southern Africa region, have formed the bedrock of cooperative water resources management regionally. The Anglo Germany Treaty of July, 1890 (The Helgoland Treaty), had established an agreement between the colonial powers of Great Britain, France, Portugal, Belgium and Germany and their respective spheres of influence over the African nations aimed to establish borders between the nations. Interesting to note in the presence of scarcity of geo-information over the areas in question; the water bodies (Rivers and Lakes) were used to mark the lines of influence hence boundaries of the sovereign states of today. This chapter therefore, will provide an account of the influence of the 1890 Anglo – Germany Treaty (Helgoland Treaty) and international customary law in regard to conflict resolution and transboundary water cooperation in the Southern Africa Region (SADC). It will also examine some of available information as well as the historical background of boundary treaties; legal frameworks for cooperation; importance of Africa Union(AU) resolutions on the same, such as Resolution AHG/Res16(1) of July 1964 as well as resolution CM/Res.1069(XLIV) of 1986 and finally a conclusion.

Building a methodological framework and toolkit for news media dataset tracking of conflict and cooperation dynamics on transboundary rivers

Abstract. The management of transboundary rivers will be one of the great political and environmental challenges of the 21st century if knowledge of conflict and cooperation is not fully developed. Transboundary river conflict and cooperation are critical for the sustainable development of river basins, regional security, and stability and have significant scientific and practical implications. The construction of a dataset of transboundary water events – individual conflictive or cooperative interaction between riparian regions – provides an important data support and a factual basis for the study of transboundary rivers. However, the most representative research, the Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database, is built by means of manual reading for information extraction, is, thus, difficult for fast updating, and also does not cover the global changes in the past decade. This research aims to build a methodological framework for news media datasets to track conflict and cooperation dynamics on transboundary rivers, provide a mass of relevant data for the research of transboundary rivers on the globe, prepare a potent research toolkit, lay a solid foundation for further data mining research, and better suit the big data age. In order to test the effectiveness of the methodological framework and toolkit for dataset construction, this research analyses the spatial coverage, both in terms of continental and national, temporal coverage from 1953 to 2019, and content coverage and conducts relevance screening of the articles in the four representative river basins in the datasets. The results show that the datasets built by this framework can capture comprehensive content of transboundary water conflict and cooperation in both spatial and temporal coverage with acceptable data quality.

WATER RESOURCES AS A GEO-ECONOMIC TOOL FOR STRENGTHENING THE ECONOMIC POWER OF STATES

Competition over the use of water resources is growing worldwide and causes a lot of conflict between countries or regions. But hydro political issues and their implications for trans boundary and regional conflicts, which affect water distribution, are undervalued. The main causes of conflicts in this direction are presented in the context of water scarcity. However, water scarcity does not necessarily lead to trans boundary water conflicts; Instead, the main reason may be a geo-economics factor such as power asymmetry. The article presents water resources as an element of geo-economics and a tool in the context of strengthening the power of countries and describes the nature of water conflict and cooperation. The article also discusses how “water conflicts” can be resolved and outlines future directions that can be taken to resolve trans boundary water conflicts.

The GERD dam in the water dispute between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. A scenario analysis in an ecosystem approach between physical and geopolitical geography

<abstract> <p>This paper examines the transboundary water resources conflict resolution mechanisms. Although different research perspectives, including social planner, water market, game theory, static and dynamic systems engineering model, have already provided conflict resolution mechanisms that could be used to analyze transboundary water conflicts, here an ecosystemic approach based on an analytical model, is proposed. For this aim the case of GERD "Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam" on Nile Azzurro, is analyzed. The scenario of the GERD dam, besides being current and interesting in the water dispute between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, is suitable for the application of the proposed analytical model. This model could permit researchers and practitioners to develop more comprehensive mechanisms, complementary to political strategies, with stronger analytical capacity to analyze the different elements of the process of transboundary water dispute resolution.</p> </abstract>

Transboundary Water Resources Conflict Analysis Using Graph Model for Conflict Resolution: A Case Study—Harirud River

One of the most important environmental issues today is the water crisis and the ensuing security challenges. Of these, transboundary waters pose the most significant security challenges. Resolving these conflicts and agreements over transboundary waters has always faced a variety of challenges, making it difficult to reach a mutually agreed solution. One of the transboundary water conflicts that have been exacerbating in recent years is the conflict between Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkmenistan over the use of the Harirud river water resources. The present paper aims to analyze, using the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR), a game theory model, the conflict between the three countries regarding the utilization of the water resources of the border river, Harirud. To this purpose, first, the current state of the conflict was investigated. Then, each of the three countries’ possible options and preferences was defined according to the past and present state of the conflict as well as the possible states. By defining the permissible movements and priorities of each decision maker, the equilibrium of the conflict was obtained. Next, four scenarios were defined, the equilibria were extracted in each scenario, and the results were interpreted. The implementation of the GMCR model algorithm regarding the Harirud water conflict between the three countries indicated that the current state is the most likely outcome of the conflict as none of the parties involved, given their preferences, and is motivated or able to change their strategy to help the conflict to a more favorable state.

Multi-objective game theory optimization for balancing economic, social and ecological benefits in the Three Gorges Reservoir operation

Reservoir operation is an important and effective measure for realizing optimal allocation of water resources. It can effectively alleviate regional scarcity of water resources, flood disasters and other social problems, and plays an important role in supporting sustainable strategic development of water resources. Coordinating the stakeholders is key to the smooth operation of a multifunctional reservoir. This research examines the competition among stakeholders of a multi-objective ecological reservoir operation aiming to provide for economic, social and ecological demands. A multi-objective game theory model (MOGM) specified 10-day water discharge to meet the triple water demands (power generation, socio-economic consumption and environment) for multi-purpose reservoir operation. The optimal operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), with the ecological objective of providing comprehensive ecological flow demanded for some key ecological problems that may occur in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, was chosen as a case study. Discharged water calculated by the MOGM and a conventional multi-objective evolutionary algorithm/decomposition with a differential evolution operator was then allocated to different demands. The results illustrate the applicability and efficiency of the MOGM in balancing transboundary water conflicts in multi-objective reservoir operation that can provide guidance for the operation of the TGR.

Resolving Transboundary Water Conflicts: Dynamic Evolutionary Analysis Using an Improved GMCR Model

Accurately simulating the dynamic evolution of the behaviors of different decision-makers (DMs) is essential for identifying solutions to transboundary water conflicts. The purpose of this study is to present a dynamic evolutionary analysis model for simulating the behavior of different water users and solving the problem of transboundary water conflicts. To accomplish this goal, a revenue function, which can objectively evaluate the relative preferences of different DMs in water conflicts, was constructed to improve the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) model. A demonstration area in the Yangtze River Delta on ecologically friendly development (DAYRD) in China is applied to demonstrate the applicability of the improved method. The results show that the improved GMCR model based on the revenue function can accurately simulate the dynamic evolution of transboundary water conflicts and avoid the influence of subjective factors of researchers or experts in the traditional method. Additionally, the results indicated that water conflicts in the DAYRD can be transformed from the status quo (conflict) to the target state (cooperation) by effectively controlling the intensity of third-party intervention. These findings provide useful insights for the resolution of transboundary water conflicts and enhance our understanding of the role of third parties in transforming conflict into cooperation.