Trans-Pacific Partnership Countries Research Articles

COVID-19 Disruption Strategy for Redesigning Global Supply Chain Network across TPP Countries

Background: COVID-19 has disrupted and adversely affected supply chains worldwide. A global supply chain network that considers disruptions is needed. This study strategically analyzes the economic and structural effects of disruption on a global supply chain network with customs duty and the trans-pacific partnership (TPP) agreement. Methods: We present a cost minimization model which helps in understanding the difficulty of supplying materials or products to factories or customers if the supplier’s cities are facing disruption. This enables us to model and evaluate simultaneous considerations of supplier disruption, customs duty, and TPP in redesigning a global supply chain network. This network is modeled and formulated using integer programming, disruption scenarios, and a sensitivity analysis for customs duty. Results: Regarding the impact of disruptions on suppliers, two patterns emerge in the reconfigured network: direct changes due to supplier disruptions and indirect changes due to factory relocation. The sensitivity analysis for customs duty shows that the TPP has a positive impact on cost maintained, even in the presence of disruptions. Conclusions: Suppliers should be switched depending on the scale of disruption; when many distant suppliers need to be switched, the factory should be relocated to the country where these suppliers are located.

Non-linear Effect of Debt on the Economic Performance of Trans-Pacific Partnership Countries

Objective - The formation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) without the United States has raised many concerns in terms of the possibility of its success. The economic growth of the remaining 11 partner countries is important for the success of the formation of the TPP. Although economic performance depends on certain crucial indicators including debt, the effect of debt on the economic performance among the TPP partner countries remains ambiguous. Methodology/Technique - As a result, this study investigates the nonlinear effect of debt on the economic performance of these partner countries (excluding Brunei and Vietnam) as a whole. In addition, the optimal level of debt is proposed as a means to control the level of debt for sustainable economic growth. Unbalanced panel data of the annual public debt-to-Gross Domestic Product ratio (measured as a percentage of GDP) and real GDP per capita from 1984 to 2015 was collected. Through panel analysis, this study reports an inverted U-shaped relationship between debt and economic performance. Findings - The threshold debt level was identified at 58.02% of GDP. This non-linear relationship means that increasing debt has a positive impact on economic performance before reaching 58.02% of GDP, and an inverse impact on economic performance occurs after this threshold debt level. However, the average debt reveals that the partnership as a whole experiences the reverse effect of debt on growth during this period. Novelty – This study highlights the need for prudent indebtedness policies to ensure continuing trade integration. Type of Paper - Empirical. Keywords: Debt; Growth; Nonlinear; Threshold; TPP Countries. JEL Classification: G10, G11, G19.

Capital Mobility in the World: TPP Experience

TPP without the U.S. has been ongoing. This paper examines the relationship between saving and investment in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) economies. Global saving in the world has been used for investment financing in other regions where domestic and regional finance markets are not well organized. TPP countries, in general, have well organized financial markets of their own, however, better opportunities would be provided for TPP economies if the stronger market integration is accomplished. The empirical results indicate that the role of reginal saving has been important in Asia, however, the U.S. saving-investment has been playing important role for TPP economies.

Transcontinental Partnerships at the Crossroads: Factors, Risks, Consequences

Transcontinental partnerships – Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TATIP) – have been analyzed in view of the new challenges in polycentric world, US foreign economic policy changes, risks for the national economies of the block’s participants, as well as for the other countries. The TPP and the TATIP are in focus as the new stage of the world integration process. The TATIP can deepen the already substantial economic ties between the US and the European Union. But what will be included in the chapters of the agreement on financial services, agricultural products, some other sectors is still subject to debate. Particular concerns arise about the role for the TATIP in harmonizing financial regulation. The practical implementation of president Donald Trump plans to «promote American industry, protect American workers» began with the US withdrawal from the TPP, with negotiating new bilateral trade deals in mind. Since that decision, the leaders of Japan, Singapore, Australia, and other TPP participants emphasized the strategic importance of this agreement for their countries and for US leadership in the region. Withdrawing from the TPP raises concerns among US trade partners and allies in the region and put many questions before them. Besides, US withdrawal from the TPP effectively gives green light to assert a more pronounced leadership role in the region for China, which is already a major trade and investment partner for TPP countries. Furthermore, Donald Trump turned attention to certain imports as a threat to national security and thus potentially subject to steep tariffs. The US steps in this way may undermine the rules-based trading system, and put many questions before TPP partners and other countries. Whether import restrictions for national security reasons be implemented, they may damage not only China as the main U.S. imports driver; but other countries as well, and lead to new barriers against US exports by trading partners. The Trump administration initiatives not only represents a challenge for countries that linked closely to the American economy due to the trade-economic agreements, but leads to new opportunities and choices in international economic relations.

Approaches to Set Rules for Trade in the Products of Agricultural Biotechnology. Is Harmonization under Trans-Pacific Partnership Possible?

Abstract Given the absence of progress toward a multilateral agreement on trade liberalization in the WTO’s Doha Round, countries are attempting to gain the perceived gains from trade through the negotiation of preferential trade agreements. One of the most ambitious attempts to negotiate a preferential agreement is the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) which encompasses 12 countries across the Pacific including both the US and Japan. The TPP members account for approximately 40 % of global GDP. One of the most difficult issues in current international trade policy is the regulation of trade in the products of modern agricultural biotechnology. This question was on the negotiating agenda of the TPP. The objective of this paper is to lay out the major issues in the trade of products of modern agricultural biotechnology and examines the regulatory regimes for biotechnology in the 12 TPP countries. It finds that there is a significant divergence in the approaches to regulating genetically modified organisms (GMOs) across the TPP countries. As a result, the development of a harmonized regulatory regime to govern trade in GMOs was impossible directly in the TPP. A forum where the development of a harmonized system could potentially be undertaken was, however, agreed in the TPP.

Liberalization of Russia’s trade with the European Union, BRICS, and Trans-Pacific Partnership countries

The general trade effects and changes in the commodity and geographical trade structures for Russia under the condition of integrating trade with countries of the European Union, BRICS and Trans-Pacific Partnership have been estimated in the article. It has been stated that it is preferable for the Russian economy to approach European Union countries in order to obtain the maximum values of the welfare effect and trade-creation effect, and to proportionally increase the export and import volumes with the BRICS countries. Based on the prolongation of the shortterm tendencies, the long-term challenges to the Russian economy and possibilities of liberalizing trade with the mentioned trade unions have been specified.

INDONESIA-CHILE TRADE COOPERATION: INDONESIA'S INITIAL STEPS TO ENTER THE TPP

T rans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a trade agreement between the twelve countries in Asia - Pacific region with the aim to encourage the liberalization of trade in member countries, especially in terms of tariffs, trade protection and economy equality. Indonesia indicated its intention to enter the TPP in order to expand the market share of Indonesian exports. Indonesia currently has trade agreements with almost all countries with TPP members, except with Chile, as one of them. The analysis was done by analize Indonesia-Chile's trade in 2011 to 2015; analize Chile's trade with Canada, Singapore and Vietnam and also based on the results of simulations by Petri (2016). The simulation results show that agreement can be beneficial TPP countries involved in it, seen with increasing GDP of member countries. In addition, TPP also increase the flow of inward investment more than outward investment, especially investment coming from countries with high economy. But the free trade agreement (FTA) Indonesia with major trading partners should also be considered before Indonesia joint TPP.

The Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement and access to HIV treatment in Vietnam

ABSTRACTIn the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement negotiations, the USA successfully pursued intellectual property (IP) provisions that will affect the affordability of medicines, including anti-retrovirals (ARV) for HIV. Vietnam has the lowest GDP per capita of the 12 TPP countries and in 2013 provided ARVs for only 68% of eligible people living with HIV. Using the current Vietnamese IP regime as our base case, we analysed the potential impact of a regime making full use of legal IP flexibilities, and one based on the IP provisions of the final, agreed TPP text. Results indicate that at current funding levels 82% of Vietnam’s eligible people living with HIV would receive ARVs if legal flexibilities were fully utilised, while as few as 30% may have access to ARVs under the TPP Agreement – more than halving the proportion currently treated.

Should TPP Be Formed? On the Potential Economic, Governance, and Conflict-Reducing Impacts of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement

(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)Comprehensive are the most distinctive aspect of the TPP. (Petri and Plummer (2016), p. 5)I. INTRODUCTIONThe proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a free trade agreement (FTA) among 12 Pacific Rim countries whose joint gross domestic products (GDPs) account for approximately 36 percent of world GDP and whose mutual trade accounts for approximately 24 percent of world trade. For the United States, the 11 potential TPP partners already account for 45 percent of U.S. exports.1 Moreover, the United States already has in place FTAs with 6 of these 11 countries.2 Other TPP countries also have FTAs in place with several countries. Hence, TPP is designed to expand trade-policy liberalization among a larger number of countries, to deepen the degree of trade-policy liberalization by lowering non-tariff trade barriers and other fixed trade costs (including liberalizing trade in services and lowering foreign direct investment (FDI) barriers), and to improve harmonization of trade and FDI policies. The likely most substantive contribution of the TPP is to reduce an overwhelming array offixed costs that firms face in exporting goods and services to foreign markets. The comprehensive rules noted above in Petri and Plummer (2016) should reduce such export fixed costs. In other words, in stark contrast to most previous FTAs, the TPP is unique and unprecedented in two dimensions. First, the TPP will improve the of international trade and FDI to allow all countries' firms to trade on a fairer and more transparent footing. Second, by lowering variable and fixed trade costs, the TPP will enable a greater number of firms to export to foreign markets.Prior to any new FTA formation, academic, business, and government economists typically conduct ex ante computable general equilibrium (CGE) analyses of the (expected) economic benefits and costs to nations' trade, employment, and real gross domestic products (GDPs) and national incomes. Such models provide quantitative predictions of the effects of an agreement, typically using multi-sector, multi-country frameworks with factors of production (such as labor) adjusting between industries (and some models even allow net employment increases or decreases). While several such CGE models have been implemented for TPP and their predictions summarized and contrasted,3 two prominent CGE analyses are those by Petri and Plummer (2016) and the U.S. International Trade Commission, ITC (2016). Petri and Plummer (2016) is an updated version of Petri, Plummer, and Zhai (2011) and suggests that annual exports of the United States would increase by about 9 percent from TPP (by year 2030, relative to the baseline), while annual U.S. real GDP would increase 0.5 percent (in their analysis, employment is unchanged, assuming full employment). In contrast, ITC (2016), a study mandated by the U.S. Trade Priorities Act following President Obama's notification, used a CGE model and found-under some different, and more traditional, assumptions-that annual U.S. exports to the world would grow only 1 percent (though by 5.6 percent with TPP members) and annual U.S. imports would grow similarly (relative to the baseline). ITC (2016) also predicted that U.S. real GDP would increase only 0.2 percent, which is 40 percent of the 0.5 percent impact in the Petri and Plummer (2016) study.4 While many observers claim that such impacts are small (cf., Wall Street Journal, May 16, 2016), in this era of annual real GDP growth rates among developed countries of 2 percent, additional annual growth of 0.2-0.5 percent is substantive and should not be discounted.5This paper-intended to complement these studies-examines the potential impacts of TPP beyond traditional CGE estimates, taking a broader economic, governance, and historical perspective. We do this by bringing to the fore five issues that traditional CGE models ignore; consequently, we will argue that traditional predicted CGE estimates of the trade and real income effects of TPP, such as those in ITC (2016), should be interpreted as a likely floor in terms of potential benefits. …

The Eagle Meets the Dragon—Two Superpowers, Two Mega RTAs, and So Many in Between: Reflections on TPP and RCEP

The proliferation of regional trade agreements (RTAs) in recent decades and the intensifying rivalry among major trading nations has led to the creation of two mega RTAs, namely the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) led by the United States of America and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) led by China. Due to the importance of market access to these two economic superpowers, seven out of twelve TPP countries are also participating in the negotiations for RCEP, comprising half of the sixteen participating countries. This article discusses the development of these two mega RTAs, introduces their key provisions and approaches, and examines the dynamics and implications for trade that these mega RTAs would create.

The Implications of the Trans-Pacific Partnership for SMEs: Opportunities and Challenges

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) will have profound implications for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) within and beyond the free trade area. SME issues get more attention in the TPP than previous FTAs. Since there is limited research on the impact of the FTAs on SMEs, it is of great significance to probe into the practical implications of the TPP for SMEs. The key question will be analyzed: what are the challenges and opportunities that the TPP hold for SMEs? It is argued that, first, the support to SMEs, tariff elimination or reduction, and the reduction of non-tariff barriers are major opportunities presented by the TPP. The key benefits to SMEs are enhanced market opening and increased predictability. However, such opportunities may have limited effects in improving market position for certain SMEs. Second, the TPP will pose major challenges such as insufficiency of the opportunities to SMEs, the complexity of rules, difficulties in rule interpretation and implementation, remained regulatory differences, disadvantaged positions of SMEs from developing TPP countries, and the impact on SMEs negatively affected by trade liberalization. There will be more challenges for SMEs from non-TPP parties. Third, if the TPP is properly managed, it should bring more opportunities than challenges to SMEs. The opportunities and challenges deriving from the TPP are intimately connected.

Vietnam's Agri-Food Sector and the Trans-Pacific Partnership

Japan’s agriculture has been inward oriented, protected by trade barriers from foreign competition. Even though the share of Japan’s food consumption provided by Japanese production has gradually fallen, Japan’s farm sector remains the second-largest among the countries negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Japan’s food industry is increasingly integrated with TPP economies, although the TPP share of Japan’s agricultural imports has fallen over time. The proposed TPP agreement would lead to more agricultural exports to Japan from TPP partners, likely dominating the total agricultural trade impact of such an agreement. Despite potentially large import increases, especially in the rice, beef, and dairy sectors, the proposed agreement would only marginally reduce Japan’s output. Intrinsic strengths of Japanese agricultural production and constraints to the growth of supply in the rest of the TPP countries may limit the impact of the agreement on Japan’s agriculture. Nevertheless, U.S. exports would be well positioned to meet Japan’s new import demand.

Japan's Agri-Food Sector and the Trans-Pacific Partnership

Japan’s agriculture has been inward oriented, protected by trade barriers from foreign competition. Even though the share of Japan’s food consumption provided by Japanese production has gradually fallen, Japan’s farm sector remains the second-largest among the countries negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Japan’s food industry is increasingly integrated with TPP economies, although the TPP share of Japan’s agricultural imports has fallen over time. The proposed TPP agreement would lead to more agricultural exports to Japan from TPP partners, likely dominating the total agricultural trade impact of such an agreement. Despite potentially large import increases, especially in the rice, beef, and dairy sectors, the proposed agreement would only marginally reduce Japan’s output. Intrinsic strengths of Japanese agricultural production and constraints to the growth of supply in the rest of the TPP countries may limit the impact of the agreement on Japan’s agriculture. Nevertheless, U.S. exports would be well positioned to meet Japan’s new import demand.

China and the Trans‐Pacific Partnership: A Numerical Simulation Assessment of the Effects Involved

AbstractThe Trans‐Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a new negotiation on cross‐border liberalisation of goods and service flows going beyond WTO disciplines and focused on issues such as regulation and border controls. This paper uses numerical simulation methods to assess the potential effects of a TPP agreement on China and also China's inclusion or exclusion on other countries. We use a numerical 11‐country global general equilibrium model with trade costs and inside money. Trade costs are calculated using a method based on gravity equations. TPP barriers potentially removable are trade costs less tariffs. Simulation results reveal that China will be slightly hurt by TPP initiatives in welfare when China is out, but the total production and export will be increased. Other non‐TPP countries will be mostly hurt in welfare, but member countries will mostly gain. If China takes part in TPP, she will significantly gain and increase other TPP countries' gain as well. The comparison of TPP effects and global free trade effects show that the positive effects of global free trade are stronger than TPP effects. Japan's joining TPP would be beneficial to both herself and most of other TPP countries, but which negative effects on China's welfare when out of TPP will increase further.