Transcontinental Partnerships at the Crossroads: Factors, Risks, Consequences

Abstract

Transcontinental partnerships – Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TATIP) – have been analyzed in view of the new challenges in polycentric world, US foreign economic policy changes, risks for the national economies of the block’s participants, as well as for the other countries. The TPP and the TATIP are in focus as the new stage of the world integration process. The TATIP can deepen the already substantial economic ties between the US and the European Union. But what will be included in the chapters of the agreement on financial services, agricultural products, some other sectors is still subject to debate. Particular concerns arise about the role for the TATIP in harmonizing financial regulation. The practical implementation of president Donald Trump plans to «promote American industry, protect American workers» began with the US withdrawal from the TPP, with negotiating new bilateral trade deals in mind. Since that decision, the leaders of Japan, Singapore, Australia, and other TPP participants emphasized the strategic importance of this agreement for their countries and for US leadership in the region. Withdrawing from the TPP raises concerns among US trade partners and allies in the region and put many questions before them. Besides, US withdrawal from the TPP effectively gives green light to assert a more pronounced leadership role in the region for China, which is already a major trade and investment partner for TPP countries. Furthermore, Donald Trump turned attention to certain imports as a threat to national security and thus potentially subject to steep tariffs. The US steps in this way may undermine the rules-based trading system, and put many questions before TPP partners and other countries. Whether import restrictions for national security reasons be implemented, they may damage not only China as the main U.S. imports driver; but other countries as well, and lead to new barriers against US exports by trading partners. The Trump administration initiatives not only represents a challenge for countries that linked closely to the American economy due to the trade-economic agreements, but leads to new opportunities and choices in international economic relations.