Trajectory Prediction Research Articles

Progression trajectories from prodromal to overt synucleinopathies: a longitudinal, multicentric brain [18F]FDG-PET study

The phenoconversion trajectory from idiopathic/isolated Rapid eye movement (REM) sleep behavior disorder (iRBD) towards either Parkinson’s Disease (PD) or Dementia with Lewy Bodies (DLB) is currently uncertain. We investigated the capability of baseline brain [18F]FDG-PET in differentiating between iRBD patients eventually phenoconverting to PD or DLB, by deriving the denovoPDRBD-related pattern (denovoPDRBD-RP) from 32 de novo PD patients; and the denovoDLBRBD-RP from 30 de novo DLB patients, both with evidence of RBD at diagnosis. To explore [18F]FDG-PET phenoconversion trajectories prediction power, we applied these two patterns on a group of 115 iRBD patients followed longitudinally. At follow-up (25.6 ± 17.2 months), 42 iRBD patients progressed through overt alpha-synucleinopathy (21 iRBD-PD and 21 iRBD-DLB converters), while 73 patients remained stable at the last follow-up visit (43.2 ± 27.6 months). At survival analysis, both patterns were significantly associated with the phenoconversion trajectories. Brain [18F]FDG-PET is a promising biomarker to study progression trajectories in the alpha-synucleinopathy continuum.

Advancing Vehicle Trajectory Prediction: A Probabilistic Approach Using Combined Sequential Models

Abstract This paper addresses the critical need to quantify vehicle trajectory uncertainty in autonomous driving under environmental variability. We focus on predicting the posterior distribution of vehicle trajectories over a fixed horizon, given an initial state and a sequence of actions. We propose and compare three approaches: a probabilistic seq2seq model based on stochastic variational Gaussian processes, sequential Monte Carlo simulation with a single-step Gaussian process model, and a hybrid model that leverages the strengths of both methods. Each approach incorporates a baseline vehicle kinematics model to enhance stability and convergence. We evaluate these methods using a dataset generated from the CARLA simulator, assessing both point error metrics and probabilistic prediction metrics. This research introduces novel approaches to quantifying vehicle trajectory uncertainty through various uncertainty quantification techniques, with the goal of improving the safety and reliability of autonomous vehicle control systems.

STIA-DJANet: Spatial–Temporal Intention-Aware vessel trajectory prediction based on Dual-Joint Attention Network for e-navigation

Harnessing high-precision vessel trajectory prediction holds great promise for enhancing autonomous and safe navigation towards e-navigation. However, many technical researchers and maritime managers realize that only accurate prediction of vessel trajectory is insufficient, extraction and recognition of navigation intentions from vessel around is still crucial issue and gap in current prediction models. In response to solve this shortcoming, we propose an intention-aware model for vessel trajectory prediction, which leverages both of spatial–temporal intentions and dual joint attentions network, namely STIA-DJANet. First, the double intentions of spatial–temporal aware is designed to extract the social relationships between the own vessel trajectory and neighboring trajectories at each timestamp, effectively capturing dynamic changes in their interactions. Second, feature fusion of dual joint attentions for double intentions is proposed to extract navigation features from the intention-aware module, which can be integrated into trajectory prediction. In experiments, numerical results and comparisons on three real-world datasets demonstrate that our framework outperforms state-of-the-art models in terms of the average displacement error (ADE) and final displacement error (FDE) metrics. The average improvements were 42.852% and 44.726%, respectively. Reliable prediction results can significantly advance the development of e-navigation systems development.

Impact of ageostrophic dynamics on the predictability of Lagrangian trajectories in surface-ocean turbulence

Turbulent flows at the surface of the ocean deviate from geostrophic equilibrium on scales smaller than about 10 km. These scales are associated with important vertical transport of active and passive tracers, and should play a prominent role in the heat transport at climate scales and for plankton dynamics. Measuring velocity fields on such small scales is notoriously difficult but new, high-resolution satellite altimetry is starting to reveal them. However, the satellite-derived velocities essentially represent the geostrophic flow component, and the impact of unresolved ageostrophic motions on particle dispersion needs to be understood to properly characterize transport properties. Here, we investigate ocean fine-scale turbulence using a model that represents some of the processes due to ageostrophic dynamics. We take a Lagrangian approach and focus on the predictability of the particle dynamics, comparing trajectories advected by either the full flow or by its geostrophic component only. Our results indicate that, over long times, relative dispersion is marginally affected after filtering out the ageostrophic component. Nevertheless, advection by the geostrophic-only flow leads to an overestimation of the typical pair-separation rate, and to a bias on trajectories (in terms of displacement from the actual ones), whose importance grows with the Rossby number. We further explore the intensity of the transient particle clustering induced by ageostrophic motions and find that it can be significant, even for small flow compressibility. Indeed, we show that clustering is here due to the interplay between compressibility and persistent flow structures that trap particles, enhancing their aggregation. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Graph-driven multi-vessel long-term trajectories prediction for route planning under complex waters

Current collision avoidance algorithms used in autonomous navigation vessels are hindered by limited long-term visibility of dynamic obstacles, resulting in overly cautious and frequent avoidance maneuvers that can actually increase the risk of collisions in complex waterways. Therefore, this paper proposed a novel graph-driven multi-vessel long-term trajectory prediction method (termed GMLTP), which extends the length of real-time and accurate prediction of other vessel trajectories. GMLTP can enhance collision avoidance algorithms by enabling more anticipatory trajectory prediction, ultimately supporting real-time route planning in creating safer, more efficient, and optimized routes. Specifically, GMLTP consists of a multi-graph spatial convolution (MGSC) layer and a probability sparse (ProbSparse) self-attention Transformer. MGSC is a finer spatial interactions extractor, which supports the modeling of spatial dependency evolution on longer sequences and thus improves the perception of long-term trends, while ProbSparse self-attention Transformer is used to reduce the computation of learning long-term global time dependencies and thus extending the predictable length. Extensive experimental results indicate that GMLTP exhibits better accuracy and generalization in prediction tasks beyond 48-timesteps (each time step is 10 s), which can provide better assistance to current real-time route planning tasks.

A Novel WTG Method for Predicting Ship Trajectories in the Fujian Inshore Area Based on AIS Data

The increasing congestion in major global maritime routes poses significant threats to international maritime safety, exacerbated by the proliferation of large, high-speed vessels. To improve the detection of abnormal ship behavior, this research employed automatic identification system (AIS) data for ship trajectory forecasting. Traditional methods primarily focus on spatial and temporal correlations but often lack accuracy and reliability. In this study, ship path predictions were enhanced using the WTG model, which combines wavelet transform, temporal convolutional networks (TCN), and gated recurrent units (GRU). Initially, wavelet decomposition was applied to deconstruct the input trajectory time series. The TCN and GRU modules then extracted features from both the time series and the decomposed data. The predicted elements were reassembled using a multi-head attention mechanism and a pooling layer to produce the final predictions. Comparative experiments demonstrated that the WTG model surpasses other models in the accuracy of ship trajectory prediction. The model proposed in this study proves to be reliable for forecasting ship paths, which is crucial for marine traffic management and ensuring safe navigation.

Development of a method for predicting hazardous ship trajectories under uncertainty of navigator actions

The object of the research is the automation processes in maritime navigation to ensure the safety of ship movement by predicting their trajectories in complex aquatic areas, such as narrow passages, straits, and ports. The research applied six key stages to create a comprehensive method for clustering and predicting ship trajectories based on ECDIS data. In the first stage, ship movement trajectories were constructed according to risk categories, using the LCSS and DTW algorithms to compare planned and actual trajectories. This allowed for the accurate identification of course deviations and the determination of potentially dangerous sections of the trajectory. The second stage implemented clustering using the DBSCAN and GMM algorithms. DBSCAN was used to identify the density of points in space, and GMM provided modeling of cluster probabilities, allowing for better risk zone determination. The third stage applied the Douglas-Peucker compression algorithm to reduce the number of points in the trajectories, which preserved key characteristics and optimized data processing. In the fourth stage, ship movement stability was assessed using the Fourier transform, which allowed the detection of high-frequency oscillations that may indicate movement instability caused by changes in course or speed. The fifth stage included fuzzy clustering of trajectories using the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), which allowed modeling the probabilities of dangerous trajectories, considering the uncertainty of navigational parameters. At the final stage, a multilayer neural network (MLP) was used to predict future points of ship trajectories. The model accurately predicted the ship's coordinates, enabling timely trajectory adjustments. Experimental results showed that the developed method increased the accuracy of ship trajectory prediction to 72–81 % and also significantly reduced the final error, ensuring effective risk management during complex navigation.

Semi-Active Suspension Design for Truck Using Pneumatic Spring Joining MR Fluid Damper Based on Neural Networks Controller

<div>In order to modify both stiffness and damping rates according to various road conditions, this research introduces a pneumatic spring in conjunction with a magnetorheological (MR) fluid damper as a single suspension unit for each wheel in the truck. Preventing weight transfer and improving riding comfort during braking, acceleration, and trajectory prediction are the main objectives. A two-axle truck has been used, consisting of three degrees of freedom for the sprung mass, including vertical, pitch, and roll motions, and four degrees of freedom for the unsprung masses, which have been redesigned according to the different types of springs and dampers. Pneumatic-controlled springs, often referred to as dynamic or classic models, replace laminated leaf springs commonly found in vehicles. Additionally, an MR damper replaces a hydraulic double-acting telescopic shock absorber. These models are studied to evaluate the effect of pneumatic spring parameters on truck dynamics. Pneumatic stiffness and the intended damping force are monitored by a recurrent neural network in conjunction with leveling control. This process provides the recommended voltage for the MR damper based on the Signum function damper controller. The performance of the suspension is assessed in the time and frequency domains for both step and random road excitations using vehicle dynamic parameters. Six suspension system configurations are compared with the air spring dynamic model integrated with the MR damper (Model 6), which is recommended as a suspension system for trucks. According to simulation data, when compared to alternative suspension systems, Model 6 significantly enhances both ride comfort and vehicle stability. Model 6 offers improvements in tire workload, truck path, tire–ground contact point during acceleration, braking efficiency, and stopping distance. Compared to previous controlled models, Model 6 also demonstrates zero steady-state offset and zero steady-state error.</div>

SISGAN: A Generative Adversarial Network Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction Model Combining Interaction Information and Scene Information

Accurate pedestrian trajectory prediction is crucial in many fields. This requires the full use and learning of pedestrians’ social interactions, movements, and environmental information. In view of the current research on pedestrian trajectory prediction, wherein most of the pedestrian interaction information is explored from the level of overall interaction, this paper proposes the SISGAN model, which designs a social interaction module from the perspective of the target pedestrian, and takes four kinds of interaction information as the influencing factors of pedestrian interaction, so as to describe the influence mechanism of pedestrian–pedestrian interaction. In addition, in terms of environmental information, the index density of pedestrian historical trajectory in space is taken into account in the extraction of environmental information, which increases the potential correlation between environmental information and pedestrians. Finally, we integrate social interaction information and environmental information and make the final trajectory prediction based on GAN. Experiments on ETH and UCY datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the SISGAN model proposed in this paper.

GRU-IKF scene taxiing trajectory prediction model based on attention mechanism

Aircraft taxi trajectory prediction helps solve operational problems such as airport taxiing conflicts and long waiting times, ensuring airport safety while improving service levels and increasing airport throughput. In view of the fact that the performance of machine learning models depends on good data sets, a method for predicting taxi trajectories of aircraft on the ground based on attention mechanism, fusion of gated recurrent unit (GRU) and improved Kalman filter algorithm (IKF) is proposed. Firstly, three independent gated recurrent unit networks are used to capture the motion state and temporal dependency of aircraft at future moments, and the attention mechanism is introduced to enhance the ability to extract data difference features and learn the mapping relationship from input to output; then, it is fused with the improved extended Kalman filter to integrate the output results of the neural network into the state prediction and update process to improve the accuracy of the predicted trajectory sequence. Finally, the effectiveness of the model was verified using the actual taxiing trajectory of aircraft at Lukou Airport. The simulation results show that the model can effectively and accurately predict the taxiing trajectory of aircraft on the surface, with an overall mean square error of about 0.00128. Compared with the single recurrent neural network (RNN), long short-term memory network (LSTM) and GRU model, the RMSE is reduced by 72.9%and respectively 39.9%, 54.7%and the prediction time is 40 ms. It can accurately and quickly predict the taxiing trajectory, which helps to reduce the operating load of the airport surface management system.

Attention-Linear Trajectory Prediction

Recently, a large number of Transformer-based solutions have emerged for the trajectory prediction task, but there are shortcomings in the effectiveness of Transformers in trajectory prediction. Specifically, while position encoding preserves some of the ordering information, the self-attention mechanism at the core of the Transformer has its alignment invariance that leads to the loss of temporal information, which is crucial for trajectory prediction. For this reason, we design a simple and efficient strategy for temporal information extraction and prediction of trajectory sequences using the self-attention mechanism and linear layers. The experimental results show that the strategy can improve the average accuracy by 15.31%, effectively combining the advantages of the linear layer and the self-attention mechanism, while compensating for the shortcomings of the Transformer. Additionally, we conducted an empirical study to explore the effectiveness of the linear layer and sparse self-attention mechanisms in trajectory prediction.

Modeling the Uncertainty in Pedestrians Trajectory Prediction

Modeling the Uncertainty in Pedestrians Trajectory Prediction

Optimal Prediction of Individual Vessel Trajectories Based on Sparse Gaussian Processes

Optimal Prediction of Individual Vessel Trajectories Based on Sparse Gaussian Processes

PTNS: patent citation trajectory prediction based on temporal network snapshots

With the rapid development of science and technology, the pace of development in the knowledge economy is accelerating. Intellectual property, especially patents, is a strategic resource for technological innovation and a crucial support for building an innovative country. Therefore, it is particularly important to predict patents with high value and strong impact from the numerous and uneven-quality patents. However, patent citation behavior involves many uncertainties, and it is difficult to capture its temporal variations effectively. Therefore, this paper proposes a patent citation trajectory prediction model (PTNS) based on temporal network snapshots. It adopts relational graph convolutional networks (R-GCN) to learn the complex relationships among multiple attributes of patents and utilizes bidirectional long short-term memory networks (BiLSTM) to aggregate the temporal evolution differences of patents. Subsequently, principal component analysis (PCA) is used to explore the evolution characteristics of patent citations in depth, thereby capturing the aging effect and the ‘sleeping beauty’ phenomenon. Compared with other baselines, the PTNS performs well. In predicting new, grown, and random patents, the RMSLE decreases by approximately 0.04, 0.14, and 0.18 respectively, while the MALE decreases by approximately 0.04, 0.12, and 0.16 respectively.

PillarVTP: vehicle trajectory prediction method based on local point cloud aggregation and receptive field expansion

PillarVTP: vehicle trajectory prediction method based on local point cloud aggregation and receptive field expansion

Implementing PSO-LSTM-GRU Hybrid Neural Networks for Enhanced Control and Energy Efficiency of Excavator Cylinder Displacement

In recent years, increasing attention has been given to reducing energy consumption in hydraulic excavators, resulting in extensive research in this field. One promising solution has been the integration of hydrostatic transmission (HST) and hydraulic pump/motor (HPM) configurations in parallel systems. However, these systems face challenges such as noise, throttling losses, and leakage, which can negatively impact both tracking accuracy and energy efficiency. To address these issues, this paper introduces an intelligent real-time prediction framework for system positioning, incorporating particle swarm optimization (PSO), long short-term memory (LSTM), a gated recurrent unit (GRU), and proportional–integral–derivative (PID) control. The process begins by analyzing real-time system data using Pearson correlation to identify hyperparameters with medium to strong correlations to the positioning parameters. These selected hyperparameters are then used as inputs for forecasting models. Independent LSTM and GRU models are subsequently developed to predict the system’s position, with PSO optimizing four key hyperparameters of these models. In the final stage, the PSO-optimized LSTM-GRU models are employed to perform real-time intelligent predictions of motion trajectories within the system. Simulation and experimental results show that the model achieves a prediction deviation of less than 3 mm, ensuring precise real-time predictions and providing reliable data for system operators. Compared to traditional PID and LSTM-GRU-PID controllers, the proposed controller demonstrated superior tracking accuracy while also reducing energy consumption, achieving energy savings of up to 10.89% and 2.82% in experimental tests, respectively.

Comprehensive Preview Decision Method for Direction and Speed of Intelligent Vehicle Based on Rules and Learning

Decision-making is a key part of autonomous driving systems. Human-like decision-making in complex scenarios is important for enhancing drivers’ trust in and acceptance of autonomous driving systems. In order to improve their human-like features and their adaptability to complex scenarios, this paper proposes a comprehensive preview decision method for direction and speed based on rules and learning. First, a decision-making structure including maneuvering ability judgment, motion trajectory prediction, safety judgment, legitimacy judgment, comprehensive performance evaluation, and parameters learning is presented. Second, a learning method for the longitudinal safety distance threshold based on a BP neural network is introduced. Third, inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) is used to learn the comprehensive performance evaluation weight coefficient for different driving styles. Finally, the DJI AD4CHE dataset is processed and used to train the parameters. Car-following and lane-changing scenarios are simulated to verify the effectiveness of decision-making. The simulation results show that the proposed method can reflect human-like decision-making in multiple scenarios.

Research on vehicle trajectory prediction methods in dense and heterogeneous urban traffic

ABSTRACT In autonomous driving, accurately predicting the trajectories of surrounding vehicles is essential, particularly in dense and heterogeneous urban traffic. We propose a graph-structured model with a category layer to efficiently forecast the target vehicle’s trajectory. The model enables flexible selection of interacting objects based on environmental interactions and extracts spatial-temporal features using a graph convolutional network. A categorical layer is introduced to account for the different influences of dynamic agents, while vehicle dynamics constraints ensure the feasibility of predicted trajectories. We developed a new heterogeneous and dense urban unsignalized intersection dataset (HID), capturing complex urban interactions, and conducted extensive experiments on HID, ApolloScape, and TRAF datasets. Results demonstrate that our model outperforms benchmark methods across diverse urban scenarios, and the integration of key modules significantly enhances prediction accuracy and performance.

Multimodal adversarial informer for highway vehicle lane-changing trajectory prediction

To enhance the perception of vehicle trajectory information and lane-changing decision-making capabilities in intelligent connected vehicles during multivehicle interaction scenarios, we propose a novel method based on a Multimodal Adversarial Informer (MAI) for highway multivehicle lane-changingrajectory prediction. This method achieves spatiotemporal features of target and surrounding vehicles through graph learning of temporal features and spatial adjacency matrices. Considering the heading angle and vehicle local X-axis displacement, the vehicle trajectory samples are categorized for training and validation of the multimodal Informer. A multi-criterion discriminator is utilized to judge whether the generated trajectory fits the requirements of accuracy and rationality. After adversarial learning, the optimal vehicle lane-changing trajectory prediction is obtained using the proposed MAI. Experiments conducted with the NGSIM dataset demonstrate the comparative performance of baseline models on three different noise-added testing datasets using MAE, RMSE, and R² metrics. The MAI model consistently outperforms the others, achieving the lowest MAE and RMSE and the highest R² values across all datasets, indicating superior predictive accuracy and fit. Furthermore, the results show that the proposed MAI framework maintains a relatively low prediction error over both short-term and long-term horizons compared to baseline models.

STAFGCN:A spatial-temporal attention-based fusion graph convolution network for pedestrian trajectory prediction

Pedestrian trajectory prediction provides crucial data support for the development of smart cities. Existing pedestrian trajectory prediction methods often overlook the different types of pedestrian interactions and the micro-level spatial-temporal relationships when handling the interaction information in spatial dimension and temporal dimension. The model employs a spatial-temporal attention-based fusion graph convolutional framework to predict future pedestrian trajectories. For the different types of local and global relationships between pedestrians, it first employs spatial-temporal attention mechanisms to capture dependencies in pedestrian sequence data, obtaining the social interactions of pedestrians in spatial contexts and the movement trends of pedestrians over time. Subsequently, a fusion graph convolutional module merges the temporal weight matrix and the spatial weight matrix into a spatial-temporal fusion feature map. Finally, a decoder section utilizes TimeStacked Convolutional Neural Networks to predict future trajectories. The final validation on the ETH and UCY datasets yielded experimental results with an Average Displacement Error(ADE) of 0.34 and an Final Displacement Error(FDE) of 0.55. The visualization results further demonstrated the rationality of the model.