Policy Trajectories Research Articles

Medicaid Waivers to Address Homelessness: Political Development and Policy Trajectories.

This article reviews the role of Medicaid Waivers in homeless policy, and their emerging role as a mechanism to address homelessness. We evaluate the political development of Waivers in housing and homeless policy over the past thirty years, and investigate the status of current and approved Waivers targeting homelessness. We then consider how Waivers may shape homeless policy governance going forward, including the success of existing systems, and ethical questions related to the role of healthcare payers in solutions to homelessness. We find that the scope of Medicaid Waivers to address homelessness has always been present, but significantly expanded post Affordable Care Act (ACA) and more notably following the COVID-19 pandemic. These expansions brought new opportunities for states to fund responses to homelessness through Medicaid social determinants of health (SDoH) provisions providing wrap-around medical services for populations at-risk of or experiencing homelessness, and now through time-limited direct housing costs paired with essential medical services. Over one third of states have an 1115 Waiver specifically targeting homelessness, with nearly one in five states including provisions that cover direct housing costs (e.g., rent). Going forward, Medicaid's involvement in homeless policy has the potential to reshape state and local responses to homelessness.

Patterns, clusters, and transitions in U.S. state ENDS policy implementation: 2010-2020.

Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), such as e-cigarettes, have become increasingly used across the world. To respond to global public health challenges associated with vaping, governments have implemented numerous ENDS policies. This research highlights the patterns, clustering, and transitions in U.S. state ENDS policy implementation from 2010 to 2020. Policy data for tobacco and ENDS policies primarily from the Americans for Nonsmokers' Rights Foundation (ANRF) were analyzed for the years 2010 to 2020 for all fifty states and Washington, D.C. Patterns and clusters of policies were assessed. Latent trajectories were modeled for ENDS policies across states over time. ENDS policies commonly have analogous tobacco control policies in place prior to their implementation. ENDS policies in states were commonly implemented in "bundles." The temporal trajectories of ENDS policy implementation occurred in 3 latent forms. A majority of states were "catch-up implementers," indicating their slow initial implementation but stronger position by the end of the period of observation in 2020. These trajectories of ENDS policies were not associated with any individual tobacco control policy in place at the start of the trajectory in 2010. The development of ENDS policies in U.S. states has been temporally and geographically uneven. Many states that had initially been slow to implement ENDS policies caught up by 2020. The implementation of policy "bundles" was common. The clustering of policies in bundles has important methodological implications for analyses, which should be considered in ENDS policy evaluations.

Contagion and control: the role of epidemic discourse in shaping domestic violence as a nascent policy issue

ABSTRACT Domestic violence is widely recognised as a global issue and a fundamental human rights violation. Internationally, it is often addressed through human rights frameworks that emphasise victim-centered interventions. In the United States, a distinct policy trajectory focused on criminalisation has developed. Drawing from untapped sources, including 1977–1978 congressional debates, this study reveals the emergence of an “epidemic discourse” on domestic violence. This discourse, guided by the epidemic metaphor, depicted domestic violence as a contagious social problem transmitted by children mimicking spousal violence. The metaphor gained traction in Congressional debates by aligning with statistics, magnifying the issue's scale. However, it inadvertently shifted attention from victim support to preventive and punitive strategies aimed at isolating perpetrators while maintaining, through the notion of risk factors, individual responsibility for a woman having become a victim. Notably, the U.S. has since exported many of its punitive policies globally, influencing other nations’ approaches to domestic violence. The findings underscore the subtle yet significant role metaphors can play in policymaking and in shaping public perceptions of emerging social problems. This analysis, with its focus on unsuccessful legislative bills and debates, enhances our understanding of discursive processes that shape social problem construction, leading to unforeseen dynamics within policymaking.

Spatiotemporal Change Analysis and Multi-Scenario Modeling of Ecosystem Service Values: A Case Study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, China

Ecosystem service value (ESV) assessment is a crucial indicator of regional ecological quality and ecological management effectiveness. Ecosystem services (ES) provide the environmental foundation for human existence and social advancement. However, the future course of land use change (LUC) in urban agglomerations and its implications for human society remains uncertain, which presents a challenge to maintaining a balance between ecological service functions and regional socioeconomic growth. This paper took the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration as an example and used the future land use simulation (FLUS) model to project the spatial distribution of land use under the natural development scenario (NDS), food security scenario (FSS), and ecological priority scenario (EPS) of BTH in 2030, 2040, and 2050. Next, the changes to ESV under various scenarios were investigated through the equivalent coefficient method. In order to make more targeted recommendations for regional development, the study also used hotspot analyses to explore the impacts of LUCs on ESV. The results showed that: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the LUC in the BTH was dramatic and mainly focused on the interconversions among the three land use categories of cropland, grassland, and built-up land. The total ESV demonstrated the tendency to decrease from CNY 386,859.89 × 106 in 2000 to CNY 371,968.78 × 106 in 2020. (2) Compared with 2020, the ESV in BTH in 2050 under the FSS loses 16,568.78 × 106 CNY, followed by the NDS (CNY 10,960.84 × 106), while the ESV under the EPS increases by CNY 9373.74 × 106. The results of the scenario simulation showed that there was significant variability in ESV under different political orientations. (3) Hotspot analysis indicated that the ESV changes were clustered in the northeastern part and the eastern coastal region of the BTH. On this basis, we identified Chengde, Beijing, Tianjin, and Zhangjiakou as the key cities to focus on and made meaningful suggestions for their future regional environmental protection and sustainable development. This research can serve as a guide in creating sustainable BTH development policies and offer fresh perspectives for investigating how land use patterns affect the ecological environment’s regional quality under various policy trajectories.

Indigenous Peoples and Social Protection: The Case of the Peruvian Amazon

The persistence of indigenous poverty and exclusion is one of the main challenges for social policy in Latin America. Social protection programmes, in particular conditional cash transfers, have been among the main instruments used by governments over the past two decades to respond to the high incidence of poverty in indigenous contexts. The inclusion of indigenous peoples as social protection beneficiaries remains a largely unexplored topic, despite its relevance to understand social policy trajectories in the global South. This article discusses the expansion of poverty alleviation social programmes in the Peruvian Amazon. Although the expansion of these programmes increased the state’s capacity to deliver welfare services in historically excluded areas, it also revealed the limitations of existing social protection instruments to effectively respond to indigenous poverty and vulnerability. Addressing this challenge constitutes a key opportunity to promote transformative approaches in social protection systems in Latin America.

History Politics in Kosovo: Elites’ Memory and Victims’ Counter-Memory in Public Spaces of the De Facto State (Contradictions of Collective Memory and Memorial Culture)

The article examines the development of collective historical memory in Kosovo, a region with contested international political status. The study aims to analyze the memorial policies pursued by Kosovo’s regional political elites, which contribute to the consolidation of the region’s political identity. Additionally, the role and significance of history and perceptions of the past in the discourse shaped by the elites of modern Pristina are explored. Methodologically, the article draws on the interdisciplinary contributions of historiography, particularly the memorial turn, as well as studies that analyze nationalism as a factor in the evolution and transformation of memorial cultures. The novelty of the study lies in its examination of the current stage of historical policy development in Kosovo, a region that is striving for institutionalization and recognition as a nationstate. The article demonstrates that: 1) Kosovo's political elites actively leverage both the real and symbolic potential of collective memory, 2) the region’s historical policy and memorial culture are marked by a high degree of ideologization, and 3) nationalism plays a pivotal role in shaping the main vectors and trajectories of historical policy and memorial culture. The study suggests that the memory policies enacted by the elites tend to blend ethnic and civic Albanian nationalism, characterized by a high level of politicization and ideologization of history. This active use and instrumentalization of historical narratives in public and social spaces transforms collective memory into a tool for memorial confrontation and memory wars.

Historical Foundations of Green Developmental Policies: Divergent Trajectories in United States and France

ABSTRACTIn recent years, many countries have adopted biodiversity offset policies to internalize the ecological impacts of land developments. Although national policies share the general principle of equalizing ecological harm with gain, there is substantial variation across programs regarding the institutional forms governing offsetting. In this paper, we compare biodiversity governance in the United States and France to reflect more broadly on the factors shaping divergent trajectories of green developmental policies. Both countries have some form of biodiversity offsetting in place, but the major fault line of difference is the more extensive use of market‐based instruments (MBI) in the United States. Using a historical lens, we argue that one important reason for this variation lies in the different legal‐institutional definitions of biodiversity. A narrower definition in the United States focused on individual species, versus a broader definition in France focused on ecosystems, has facilitated a more standardized biodiversity governance arrangement in the United States. Leveraging this standardization, biodiversity markets have expanded in the United States while similar efforts to institutionalize market mechanisms have struggled in France. The comparison allows us to draw insights into the challenges in greening economic development, particularly in showing how historical scientific, legal, and institutional structures condition policy outcomes.

Abe’s incrementalism: an institutionalist analysis of immigration policy reform during the second Abe administration

The late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s second stint in power 2012 to 2020 oversaw numerous ambitious reforms to Japan’s immigration regime whilst still maintaining the country’s status quo of ‘no immigration policy’. This status quo was established through the 1990 system and denies both the admittance of unskilled foreign labor and formal immigration policy, instead relying on ‘side-door’ policies to recruit most foreign workers. The goal of this article is to evaluate the policy outcomes of Abe’s reforms by taking a macro-level approach and using a historical institutionalist methodological framework. Through classifying Abe’s major policy initiatives utilizing the mechanisms of institutional change, I analyze whether despite Abe’s own insistence, he has changed the immigration status quo in a fundamental way. In the conclusion, I argue that in combination with recent reforms by his successors, the potential for a fundamental change in Japan’s immigration policy trajectory is present – even though this change has not taken place yet.

Assessing potential for policy feedback from renewable energy incentive programs

Climate advocates look optimistically to policy feedback as a mechanism for locking-in a decarbonization policy trajectory, but little research has examined whether and how climate legislation creates constituencies that could provide future political support. This article focuses on incentive programs supporting investment in solar PV and the potential for policy feedback through participating households. We first develop a framework of feedback potential that considers the volume and partisanship of incentive program beneficiaries and their distribution across electoral districts. We then apply the framework to New York State’s solar PV incentive program, which enabled over 140,000 households to install solar PV. We find that the number of solar PV incentive beneficiaries is positively associated with Republican vote share, suggesting potential for a strong pro-solar constituency in the pivotal, Republican-led districts. Within electoral districts, however, beneficiaries skew Democratic, raising questions about the direction of policy feedback. The results carry implications for the kind of politics that incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act may set in motion in the coming years.

Energy Politics and Warfare: How International Energy Interests Shape Alliances in the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict

Purpose: This study aims to critically examine the intricate interplay of energy politics and military strategy within the context of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict. It posits that energy resources - specifically oil and natural gas - serve as pivotal factors that shape strategic alliances, influence geopolitical manoeuvring, and dictate the foreign policy trajectories of international actors, including the United States, the European Union, and China. Materials and Methods: The research employs a qualitative methodology that is underpinned by a series of semi-structured interviews conducted with a diverse cohort of policymakers, energy analysts, and industry stakeholders. Through this empirical approach, the study explores the participants' perceptions regarding the nexus between energy dynamics and security policymaking. In addition to the qualitative interviews, the investigation analyses a range of qualitative materials, including public statements, policy documents, and corporate strategic outlines. Discourse analysis is utilized to further uncover the mechanisms through which energy companies exert influence on governmental policies and military postures. Findings: The anticipated findings are expected to provide a nuanced understanding of the centrality of energy resources in influencing military strategies and fostering international coalitions. This analysis will contribute to an enriched scholarly discourse that informs not only theoretical frameworks in international relations but also practical applications in global energy governance and security. Implications to Theory, Policy and Practice: The inquiry underscores the imperative for a multifaceted and informed policy approach that acknowledges the profound implications of energy resources on national interests and global stability. By integrating energy considerations into security policymaking, the study advocates for a reassessment of traditional strategic paradigms that often overlook the complexities arising from energy interdependence.

Widening access to higher education: a comparative historical review of first-generation students in England and the USA

ABSTRACT It is widely understood that access to a university education is a critical component in improving one’s position in life. Many countries have sought to widen access to higher education through policies and programmes. Still, first-generation students account for 22% of university graduates across the world (Bell and Santamaria [2018]. Understanding Experiences of First Generation University Students: Culturally Responsive and Sustaining Methodologies. London: Bloomsbury Academic). Both England and the USA have seen growing numbers of first-generation students enter their colleges and universities in recent years. Through a neoinstitutional lens, this article explores the educational policy trajectories of two countries, specifically England and the USA, to better understand the landscape of higher education for first-generation students.

Analysing Nigeria’s Trade Policies: Evolution, Achievements, and Challenges

This paper examines the trajectory of Nigeria's trade policies from the pre-independence era to the present day, highlighting their benefits and challenges. Indeed, successive Nigerian governments have implemented various policies to reduce dependence on oil and gas, seeking to diversify the economy base. While noticeable gains have been recorded in the agricultural sector and domestic manufacturing capabilities, the need for improvement is equally not doubtful. There is the strong imperative for improvements in the value-chain of agriculture, enhancement of manufacturing capabilities and efficiency, and capital investments to boost the solid minerals sector. All of these are initiatives that must be considered if the country must develop pragmatic trade policies. The globalisation of trade has clearly shown that Nigeria must move beyond implementing trade policies that are protective of its domestic industries, but to adopt those that balance its economic growth and development objectives.

Divergent Pathways in North–South Education Policy Development in Ireland in the 1920s: Exploring the Influence of the First Ministers for Education on Both Sides of the Border

ABSTRACT A long tradition of both State and religious interest and support characterised provision for education on the island of Ireland from the 1700s. Following the partition of Ireland in the 1920s, the newly created political entities of the Irish Free State and Northern Ireland forged separate and distinct education policy trajectories that largely reinforced and propagated the dominant identity in each jurisdiction. This article explores and assesses the contributions of the first Ministers for Education in the Irish Free State and in Northern Ireland in the 1920s, Eoin MacNeill and Lord Londonderry, respectively. A particular emphasis is placed on their influence, impact and legacy on primary education policy development and enactment. Ultimately it could be argued that both Ministers can be characterised to a certain extent as political failures in terms of introducing and embedding education policy that aligned with their personal or political ambition and ideology.

The long mid-transition: tracking decades of coastal oil well decommissioning in California

Abstract This article presents an account of four different experiences of oil well decommissioning and abandonment along the Santa Barbara coast in California, together forming an ongoing process that began over a century ago and which has, more recently, become a component of statewide transition plans. The cases include the re-abandonment of nineteenth century wells in Summerland; offshore oil platform removal in the 1990s; and two different areas of operational closures due to infrastructure failures and bankruptcies. Informed by this history, we suggest that decommissioning must be actively managed through coordinated, well-funded, multi-agency action, grounded in historical awareness of policy trajectories. Additionally, the scale of the need together with the economics and policies in place mean that oil well decommissioning will be happening for a very long time, even if no new wells are built.

Brazil’s Unified Health System: the fight for a universal right in an unequal country

This article analyzes Brazil's Unified Health System (SUS), established by the 1988 Constitution. The article initially presents the previous trajectory of national health policy and the context of democratization in the 1980s, which favored health reform and created a public, universal, and comprehensive health system. It then explores the advances and contradictions recorded in more than three decades of implementation of the SUS. The main advances observed were the creation of institutional mechanisms compatible with the federative arrangement and social participation, political and administrative decentralization, the national expansion of access to health, changes in the health care model, including strengthening primary care, and improvements in health indicators. On the other hand, the persistence of structural problems and disputes between different health agendas, with differences between governments, led to contradictions in financing and public-private relations in health. Despite the differences between countries, the analysis of the Brazilian case provides lessons on the challenges in building universal health systems in Latin America.

Contextualising Australia’s Role in UN Peacekeeping Operations: A Comprehensive Analysis from 1947 to Present

Purpose: This scholarly article rigorously analyses Australia’s engagement in United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations from 1947 to the present, focusing on the nation's substantial contributions, significant policy transitions, and the broader implications for international relations and global governance frameworks. Materials and Methods: Utilizing a qualitative methodological approach, this study systematically reviews over sixty peacekeeping missions involving Australia, drawing upon a diverse array of primary and secondary sources, including governmental reports, academic journals, and UN documentation. The timeframe spans critical historical moments, beginning with Australia’s initial involvement in international peacekeeping initiatives in the late 1940s and evolving through distinct geopolitical eras, including the Cold War, post-Cold War period, and contemporary conflicts (Baldwin et al., 2022; McDonald, 2023). The analysis is grounded in a constructivist framework intertwined with realism, allowing for a nuanced understanding of how Australia’s peacekeeping roles reflect and reinforce the interplay of national interests and international obligations. This theoretical lens facilitates an exploration of the changing nature of global conflicts, operational mandates, and evolving international norms (Kirton, 2023). Findings: The research reveals that Australia’s peacekeeping contributions have evolved significantly, marked by key policy shifts from unilateralism to multilateralism within the UN paradigm. The country’s notable involvements in critical missions, such as those in East Timor and the Solomon Islands, exemplify its commitment to regional stability while also reflecting strategic partnerships with key allies (Cousens & Kumar, 2022). Furthermore, these contributions highlight Australia’s capacity to respond to complex emergencies and humanitarian crises effectively, reinforcing its role as a key player in regional peace and security. Implications to Theory, Practice and Policy: This examination elucidates the implications of Australia’s peacekeeping operations for its foreign policy trajectory and international standing. As the nation grapples with contemporary security challenges - including humanitarian crises, intrastate conflict, and post-colonial nation-building - the analysis reveals that Australia’s peacekeeping engagements align with broader international relations trends. Notably, there is an increasing emphasis on multilateralism, the principle of state sovereignty, and collaborative security efforts among nations (Hawkins, 2023).

Disentangling the binomial change/inertia to the Chilean educational policy in the post-dictatorship era (1990–2022). A normative policy instrument perspective

ABSTRACT Chile is a paradigmatic case of market-oriented educational policies. This has led to a prolific research agenda aimed at understanding the trajectory and trends during the country’s dictatorial period and after the return to democracy. Generally, these studies have focused on comparing the main educational policies across different governments. In contrast, this article employs a normative policy instrument perspective to analyse the trajectory of Chilean educational policies from 1990 to 2022. The focus is on disentangling the inertia/change binomial in the implementation of educational policies, considering policy development within and between governments. Thus, the article seeks to understand when, how, and why subjects of educational policies, financial priorities, and ideological orientations change or persist over more than 30 years. The findings challenge the belief that educational policies are coherent and consistent within governments, identifying grey areas in each period. Additionally, the paper provides evidence of historical inertia in educational policies that transcends the ideologies of the governing parties. Finally, it is observed that changes in market-oriented educational policies have been more pronounced in the last decade, particularly during periods of political alternation between left- and right-wing governments.

The Impact of Different Basic Trust Types During Critical Situations: The Case of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait

The primary objective of this study is to elucidate the impact of ontological security on states’ foreign policy preferences. The study posits that foreign policy preferences are closely related with their basic trust, a product of the intricate interplay between actor’s agentic capacity and its internal and external environment. This theoretical proposition is subsequently subjected to comparative examination within the contexts of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The study contends that despite sharing similar concerns regarding physical and ontological security, these two actors have pursued distinct foreign policy trajectories regarding the Arab uprisings and normalization with Israel that owe to differing types of basic trust. In doing so, the study aims to contribute to the ontological security literature from two perspectives: 1) to refine and elucidate the scope of the basic trust concept by reinterpreting it and highlighting its central role in ontological security analysis, and 2) to contribute to the practical applications of the field by applying the concepts developed in the ontological security literature to case studies of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

E-Learning for the Public Good? The Policy Trajectory of Online Education in Ontario, Canada.

Our critical historiography of e-learning policy in Ontario, Canada, traces the policy's trajectory through three settlements (2006-2022) and shows how successive governments have mobilized neoliberal discourses of personalization, access, and choice to justify new arrangements with private actors, within a broader sociopolitical context that includes increased privatization and commodification of public institutions, cuts to public spending, and imagines individuals as rational subjects driven to maximize their economic potential. This context exacerbates challenges students marginalized by schooling already face. Findings from our critical discourse analyses of government documents and news media reports also demonstrate that online learning in Ontario is neither personalized nor customizable but instead is centralized, standardized and, by design, operates independent of rather than interdependent with community. Further, our findings highlight the interdependence of schools - online and in-person - with social processes that create and perpetuate inequality, including gendered and racialized poverty, locally and abroad.

Multiple Streams and Plausibility Cones: Using Concepts from Future Studies to Depict Policy Dynamics

ABSTRACT Anticipating the future is a highly uncertain but essential task in policy-making made complex by the existence of both linear and non-linear policy dynamics. One framework which is useful in anticipating both kinds of change is the Multiple Streams Framework (MSF) which has expanded from looking mainly at aspects of policy-making such as agenda-setting to depicting other complex activities related to policy implementation and administration among others. Precisely how longer-term policy dynamics can be viewed through the MSF framework, however, remains unclear. This article re-examines common depictions of policy trajectories and argues that using a concept borrowed from Future Studies - the “plausibility cone” – can fill this gap in MSF modelling and help both policy-makers and policy scholars better understand likely and unlikely possible policy futures.