Trajectory Of Climate Change Research Articles

A GIS-based screening method to identify climate change-related threats on road networks: A case study from Sweden

Extreme weather-related events are likely to increase in both frequency and intensity if current emission rates continue. Particularly vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change is the transportation sector, which fully relies on the uninterrupted accessibility of the road network. With the Swedish Government adopting a National Adaptation Strategy in 2018, creating a coordinated cross-disciplinary strategy underpinned by international frameworks, new ambition levels regarding climate change adaptation efforts have been established. Identifying particularly vulnerable parts of the road network is an essential step for National Road Authorities (NRAs) in early planning stages to prioritize adaptation efforts around high-risk areas to safeguard the road network. By utilizing both publicly and commercially available climate-related data, as well as applying and assessing new terrain analysis techniques, a large-scale vulnerability assessment is carried out for Halland County in southwestern Sweden by assessing three climate-adjusted extreme weather events (a 100-year pluvial flood event, a 100-year fluvial flood event, and an extreme coastal storm surge event) projected to exacerbate in the region. The study demonstrates how a GIS-based screening method, specifically adapted for NRAs or similar stakeholders, may provide quick overviews of potentially at-risk areas along road networks through a simple vulnerability index assigned to individual road segments. Further studies are recommended to compare modeled results to recorded flood events if available and incorporate updated climate change trajectories from upcoming IPCC reports.

Health system adaptation to climate change: a Peruvian case study.

Despite mitigation attempts, the trajectory of climate change remains on an accelerated path, with devastating health impacts. As a response to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change call for National Adaptation Plans, Peru has developed a national and decentralized regional adaptation plans. The purpose of this article is to understand the role and priority status of health within the adaptation planning and process. Peru was used as a case study to analyse the policy process in the creation of adaptation plans, encompassing the need to address climate change impacts on health with a particular focus on marginalized people. An actor, content and context policy analyses were conducted to analyse 17 out of 25 regional adaptation plans, which are available. The national adaptation plans (2002, 2015) do not include health as a priority or health adaptation strategies. In a decentralized health care system, regional plans demonstrate an increased improvement of complexity, systematization and structure over time (2009-17). In general, health has not been identified as a priority but as another area of impact. There is no cohesiveness between plans in format, content, planning and execution and only a limited consideration for marginalized populations. In conclusion, the regional departments of Peru stand on unequal footing regarding adapting the health sector to climate change. Findings in the strategies call into question how mitigation and adaption to climate change may be achieved. The lack of local research on health impacts due to climate change and a particular focus on marginalized people creates a policy vacuum. The Peruvian case study resembles global challenges to put health in the centre of national and regional adaptation plans. In-depth cross-country analysis is still missing but urgently needed to learn from other experiences.

Predicting the Current and Future Distribution of the Invasive Weed Ageratina adenophora in the Chitwan–Annapurna Landscape, Nepal

With increasing globalization, trade, and human movement, the rate of alien species introduction has increased all around the globe. In addition, climate change is thought to exacerbate the situation by allowing range expansion of invasive species into new areas. Predicting the distribution of invasive species under conditions of climate change is important for identifying susceptible areas of invasion and developing strategies for limiting their expansion. We used Maxent modeling to predict the distribution of one of the world's most aggressive invasive weeds, Ageratina adenophora (Sprengel) R. King and H. Robinson, in the Chitwan–Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) of Nepal under current conditions and 3 future climate change trajectories based on 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) in 2 different time periods (2050 and 2070) using species occurrence data, and bioclimatic and topographic variables. Minimum temperature in the coldest month was the most important variable affecting the distribution of A. adenophora. About 38% (12,215 km2) of the CHAL area is climatically suitable for A. adenophora, with the Middle Mountain physiographic region being the most suitable one. A predicted increase in current suitable areas ranges from 1 to 2% under future climate scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). All protected areas and 3 physiographic regions (Siwaliks, High Mountain, High Himalaya) are likely to gain climatically suitable areas in future climate scenarios. The upper elevational distribution limit of the weed is expected to expand by 31–48 m in future climate scenarios, suggesting that the weed will colonize additional areas at higher elevations in the future. In conclusion, our results showed that a vast area of CHAL is climatically suitable for A. adenophora. Expected further range expansion and upslope migration in the future make it essential to initiate effective management measures to prevent further negative impacts of this invasive plant.

Widespread dieback in a foundation species on a sub‐Antarctic World Heritage Island: Fine‐scale patterns and likely drivers

AbstractUnder anthropogenic climate change, emerging diseases and pathogens are increasingly prevalent in high latitude and altitude regions that were previously protected by cold winter temperatures. Ongoing island‐wide dieback of a foundation species, the cushion plant Azorella macquariensis, on World Heritage listed Macquarie Island provides the first sub‐Antarctic example. To better understand the island‐wide progression of cushion dieback and its drivers, we established and quantified plant condition classes and measured microclimate across 62 sites. We then tested whether the drivers of cushion dieback were associated with (i) water stress: represented by vapour pressure deficit, wind exposure and gravel content, (ii) pathogen virulence: using freezing days and extreme humidity as empirically supported surrogates, or (iii) both. There was a strong north‐south progression in cushion condition, with dieback most active in the centre of the island and advanced in the north. Dieback was most extensive at sites with fewer freezing days and high humidity. Natural southern refugia were explained by the significantly colder temperatures, associated with a north‐south temperature gradient. It is expected that under current climate change trajectories, where Macquarie is likely to continue to become warmer and wetter, cushion dieback will remain pervasive, expanding most slowly in the south and potentially outpacing recovery. We emphasise the need for increased awareness to prevent the establishment of pathogens into and across the landscapes of newly susceptible high latitude and altitude regions. Areas of high conservation significance need to be prioritised for management, to prevent further landscape‐scale change under current climate trajectories.

Assessment of water resources of the Ukrainian rivers according to the average statistical models of climate change trajectories RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over the period of 2021 to 2050

The relevance of the presented work is due to the necessity of assessment of a possible state of Ukrainian water resources in the 21st century according to climate change scenarios in order to justify the strategy of economic development.
 The research object is presented by water resources of the Ukrainian rivers.
 The research focuses on the effects of global warming on Ukrainian water resources in 2021-2050.
 The work aims at assessing a possible impact of climate change on Ukrainian water resources in the 21st century, using the data from the climate change trajectories RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over the period of 2021 to 2050.
 Calculations of water resources over the period of 2021 to 2050 are performed according to the average statistical model from the ensemble consisting of 14 climatic models of the CORDEX experiment for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 trajectories. Water resources are assessed based on the Climate-runoff model developed by OSENU. The result of such calculations is the evaluation of moisture and heat resources, as well as water resources in the natural conditions of their formation. Natural (undisturbed by water management) average long-term annual runoff determined by the meteorological data is usually called "a climatic runoff". The accuracy of climatic runoff calculations using the map of isolines is ±10%. The calculations are performed in the grid nodes. The geographical location of the selected nodes corresponds to the location of meteorological stations the total number of which is 115.
 Evaluation of heat, moisture and water resources changes was performed by comparing the calculated values and the basic ones. The climatic runoff for the period of observations before 1989 is thought to be basic.
 According to the average statistical model of the RCP4.5 trajectory over the period of 2021 to 2050, the expansion of the semi-arid zone and insufficient humidification zone to the north is to be expected (when compared to the basic period). The insufficient humidification zone will expand to the northwest displacing the sufficient humidification zone. The reduction of water resources will reach to minus 40-50% in the south of the country and to 0% - minus 10% in the north. The area of water resources growth will be preserved in the Ukrainian Carpathians.
 Comparing to the RCP4.5 the RCP8.5 trajectory is considered to be more “rigid” in relation to the state of Ukrainian water resources. The reduction of water resources will occur on the nearly entire territory, except Bukovyna, due to the increase of arid climate. Water resources will decrease to minus 50-60% in the south and to minus 30% in the north.
 Both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 trajectories offer a forecast of water resources that is unfavourable for the development of Ukrainian economy, as it will cause expansion of both semi-arid and insufficient humidification zones. This will increase the water resources shortage in Ukraine.

Primary Forests Are Undervalued in the Climate Emergency

Scientists are increasingly alarmed by the accelerating climate and biodiversity crises, as, for example, Ripple and colleagues (2020), recently published in BioScience and signed by three of us (DAD, BM, BR) during the initiating letter. However, decision-makers rarely recognize the inextricable link between biodiversity and climate change. We cannot solve one without the other. Earth's biosphere contains enormous carbon stocks that have the potential to fundamentally alter the trajectory of climate change. Biodiversity is crucial for stabilizing these carbon stocks and keeping them out of the atmosphere.

Improving Mountain Pine Beetle Survival Predictions Using Multi-Year Temperatures Across the Western USA

Global climate change has led to an increase in large-scale bark beetle outbreaks in forests around the world, resulting in significant impacts to forest ecosystems, timber economies, and forest-dependent communities. As such, prediction models that utilize temperature for estimating future bark beetle locations and consequential tree mortality are critical for informing forest management decision-making in an attempt to mitigate and adapt to pending and current outbreaks. This is especially true for physiological models that account for the effects of overwinter temperatures on bark beetle survival, as seasonal temperatures, specifically during winter months, exert the greatest impact on bark beetle mortality during various stages of life cycle development. Yet, how temperature observations are used to predict bark beetle survival can significantly under- or over-estimate the role that temperature variability plays in annual tree mortality, especially under current climate change trajectories. This study evaluates how representations of winter temperature influence bark beetle survival estimates. Using the recent outbreak of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) across the western USA as a case study, single-year to decade-long winter temperature averages were used as inputs into a physiological beetle survival prediction model, the results of which were compared against beetle-induced tree mortality observations using temporal autoregressive models. Results show that using longer-term survival averages of seven to ten years significantly increases the likelihood that temperature alone can predict general levels of beetle survival and hence beetle-induced mortality. These findings demonstrate the importance of considering the role of long-term temperature observations when forecasting bark beetle outbreaks, and that year-to-year temperature variability may be constrained in predicting beetle survival during outbreak periods.

Disarray in Global Governance and Climate Change Chaos

Scientists warn that human activity in the Anthropocene is causing the transgression of several planetary boundaries. The population/environment/development equation has become insoluble. This paper reviews the trajectory of climate change and discusses the shortcomings of ongoing efforts to address it. It analyzes the current crisis in global governance, fostered by widespread disenchantment with globalization, and reflects on the risks that the resulting political imbroglio presents for our environmental future. Global responses are ineffective due to crumbling multilaterism and the continuing promotion of unsustainable economic growth based on consumerism. Discontent with the consequences of globalization has destabilized national governance and, in the process, further corroded prospects for effective global governance in facing symbiotic social, political and environmental crises. Frustration with globalization is providing media populists a platform from which to attract voters with naive schemes that highlight climate change denial. Potential pathways and obstacles for multilateralism in efforts to resolve the current crisis are blurred. Blind faith in technology, negationism, and the pervasiveness of the consumer culture further hamper awareness raising. Unfortunately, voters, institutions and policies may only adjust when the intensification of climate disasters forces a sea change in outlook.

Time of Steady Climate Change.

Under an emission scenario where atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized, previous work suggests that on centennial time scales the rate of global temperature increases would steady at significantly lower rates than those of the 21st century. As climate change is not globally uniform, regional differences in achieving this steady rate of warming can be expected. Here, we define a “Time of Steady Change” (TSC) as the time of reaching this steady rate of warming, and we present a method for estimating TSC with the use of General Circulation Model experiments run under greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios. We find that TSC occurs latest in low latitudes and in the Arctic, despite these areas steadying at very different absolute warming rates. These broad patterns are robust across multiple General Circulation Model ensembles and alternative definitions of TSC. These results indicate large regional differences in the trajectory of climate change in coming centuries.

Large‐Scale Intrusion of Circumpolar Deep Water on Antarctic Margin Recorded by Stylasterid Corals

AbstractWe present centennial‐scale radiocarbon (14C) records archived by deep sea stylasterid corals from the outer shelf and upper slope of the Antarctic margin. These novel stylasterids (Errina spp.) were collected from the western Ross Sea shelf (500 m) and slope (1,700 m), as well as the eastern Wilkes Land shelf (670 m). We provide two corals from each region and document an abrupt reversal of 14C ages in the upper (younger) part of each coral. We test the statistical robustness of each record and demonstrate the significance of the age reversals, as well as the ability of these corals to record environmental change. We discuss a variety of possible drivers for this 14C reversal and conclude that it is most likely an encroachment of 14C‐depeleted Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW). This water mass has regionally intruded onto the Antarctic margin in recent decades, facilitating loss of grounded Antarctic ice; which has implications for global sea level, deep‐water formation, and carbon sequestration in the Southern Ocean. Thus, understanding the past variability of CDW on the margin is vital to better constrain climate change trajectories in the near future. We estimate large‐scale encroachment of CDW onto the shelf likely commencing after 1830 CE (±120 year). We present possible drivers for the intrusion, but highlight the need for additional chronologic constraint. This study not only demonstrates the utility of a novel coral taxon but also presents the paleoceanographic community with a testable hypothesis concerning a recent, widespread CDW intrusion.

The economic potential of residue management and fertilizer use to address climate change impacts on mixed smallholder farmers in Burkina Faso

There are large yield gaps in the mixed smallholder farming systems of Africa, with limited opportunities to sustainably increase productivity and adapt to climate change. In this study, the ex-ante potential of residue retention and fertilization measures to meet this challenge is assessed using a positive mathematical programming (PMP) model. This micro-economic model captures decision making at the farm level for a sample population in Northern Burkina Faso for the 2010 to 2045 simulation period. In contrast to previous studies of mixed farms in this area, we model each individual farm in the sample population, instead of one or a small number of representative farms. We are therefore able identify groups of farms for which each measure is profitable, applied either individually or as a combined package. This approach also enables simulation of the economic impacts from indiscriminate applications of the measures or “smart” applications which are restricted to the farms that profit from the measures. Our findings are aligned with other studies showing that residue retention causes trade-offs between crop and livestock production, while fertilization can synergistically raise returns to both production activities. The annual profit losses from the “middle of the road” RCP6 trajectory of climate change assumed in this study were estimated to reach 15% by 2045. The smart package of measures increased aggregate profit the most, although not by nearly enough to claw back the losses from climate change. The fertilizer measures were the next most profitable, with indiscriminately applied residue retention being the only measure to reduce aggregate profit relative to this climate change baseline. Importantly, the measures that are the most profitable at the aggregate level are not necessarily those that would be the most widely adopted. For example, residue retention is profitable for a larger share of the sample population than fertilization. The advantage of the population scale analysis used in this study is that it prevents measures such as residue retention, which can benefit a significant share of farms, from being disregarded by practitioners because they appear to be unprofitable at the aggregate level or when viewed through the lens of an average representative farm. Finally, amidst the growing emphasis of studies on the benefits of packages compared to individual measures, the findings from this study are more equivocal about this choice, suggesting that extension programs should have the flexibility to apply measures individually or as a package.

Predicting Climate-Driven Habitat Shifting of the near Threatened Satyr Tragopan (Tragopan Satyra; Galliformes) in the Himalayas

Current rates of climatic change will affect the structure and function of community assemblages on Earth. In recent decades, advances in modelling techniques have illuminated the potential effects of various climatic scenarios on biodiversity hotspots, including community assemblages in the Himalayas. These techniques have been used to test the effects of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) AR5-2050, based on future greenhouse gas emission trajectories of climate change scenario/year combinations, on pheasants. Current bioclimatic variables, Miroc-esm, Hadgem2-AO and Gfdl-cm3, in future climate change scenario models, were used to predict the future distribution and the gain/loss of future habitat area, within the Himalayas, of the pheasant, Satyr Tragopon (Tragopan satyra). The results indicate that future climatic conditions may significantly affect the future distribution of Satyr Tragopon and the effectiveness of protective areas (PAs). Using the python based GIS toolkit, SDM projection, regions of high risk under climate change scenarios were identified. To predict the present distribution of the species, environment parameters of bioclimatic variables, red reflectance, blue reflectance, solar azimuth angle, altitude, slope, aspect, NDVI, EVI, VI, and LCLU were used. The forest cover (NDVI) and the canopy cover (EVI), and variables affecting forest structure, namely altitude, slope, solar azimuth angle and Bio7, were the primary factors dictating the present distribution of T. satyra. The predicted trend of habitat shifting of T. satyra in the Himalayas to higher altitudes and latitudes will gradually become more prominent with climate warming.

Climate change increases ecogeographical isolation between closely related plants

Abstract Ecogeographical isolation is a fundamental prezygotic barrier to reproduction and a step towards diversification in flowering plants. However, whether ecogeographical isolation acts as a reproductive barrier between species and thus as a mechanism for species divergence is unclear and is expected to change as species distributions shift under climate change. Using a Maxent framework, we quantified the extent of ecogeographical isolation of nine closely related species of the European plant genus Pulmonaria, which lack premating barriers and often form hybrids. We investigated ecogeographical isolation under both current conditions and four climate change scenarios; two unrelated future climate models, each with two predictions of the potential trajectories of climate change. Compared with current climates, under these future climate scenarios, there will be an increase in mean annual temperature, but not in mean annual precipitation in the range of Pulmonaria throughout Europe. This will result in a range contraction in three of the nine Pulmonaria species, a range expansion in two species, and no clear effect of climate change on the ranges of four species. Climate change will result in an overall increase in ecogeographical isolation between these species in future. In particular, species that have low ecogeographical isolation under current conditions are predicted to increase the most in their ecogeographical isolation under climate change. Synthesis. These results highlight that climate change can strongly impact on a major premating barrier of closely related species, therefore potentially affect the evolutionary trajectory of plants in the future.

Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change

We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon-climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (1015-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon-climate feedback.

How vulnerable are ecosystems in the Limpopo province to climate change?

South Africa's biomes are characterized by their exceptional biodiversity and they provide important ecosystem services such as food, livestock production, medical plants or fuel wood to people. However, during recent decades, vegetation in South Africa experienced substantial changes and loss of biodiversity due to habitat loss, intensification of land use and climate change. The development of sustainable management policies requires an understanding of interactions between vegetation, climate change as well as land use and an identification of the areas most vulnerable to vegetation change. Here, we use the aDGVM, a dynamic vegetation model for tropical ecosystems, to investigate the risk of biome shifts in South Africa's Limpopo province under a set of IPCC climate change trajectories. The Limpopo province exemplifies an area highly susceptible to climate and land use change, where people in rural areas heavily rely on natural resources. We found a general trend towards more tree-dominated ecosystems and a particularly high risk of vegetation shift in more open grassland and savanna areas. The rate of biome shift is strongly linked to the IPCC scenario applied with the highest risk of biome shifts in the RCP 8.5 scenario. We conclude that, irrespective of future climate trajectories, management and conservation initiatives should particularly focus on these more open grassland and savanna ecosystems.

A new estimation of China’s net ecosystem productivity based on eddy covariance measurements and a model tree ensemble approach

Accurate assessment of the strength of China’s terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink is key to understanding its regional carbon budget. However, large uncertainties in current carbon sink estimations still exist, which hinder the prediction of future climate change trajectories. In this study, we generated a high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) dataset of China’s net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in the last decade via a model tree ensemble approach combined with data from 46 flux sites in China and neighboring regions. The upscaling also included detailed information on nitrogen (N) deposition and forest age that have often been neglected in previous studies. The performance of MTE algorithm in simulating NEP at the site level is relatively high for both training (R2 = 0.81, RMSE = 0.73 gC m−2 day−1) and validation datasets (R2 = 0.76, RMSE = 0.81 gC m−2 day−1). Our data-driven estimation showed that roughly 70% of the area is a carbon sink, and the largest carbon sinks are found in the southeast and southwest monsoon regions. The total annual NEP in China in the last decade was 1.18 ± 0.05 Pg C yr−1, which is similar to the results found by another foundational global-scale study. Yet, the two studies significantly differ in the spatial distribution of carbon sink density. The seasonality of China’s NEP is characterized by region-specific kurtosis and skewness in most areas. Furthermore, ecosystem carbon use efficiency (CUE), defined as the annual NEP/GPP ratio, also showed high spatial variation. For example, the Xiaoxing’anling and Changbai Mountains in northeastern China, the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, and bordering areas of the southeast and southwest monsoon regions have a larger CUE than the rest of China. On average, China’s terrestrial ecosystem CUE is approximately 0.17. Our data-driven NEP and CUE estimates provide a new tool for assessing China’s carbon dioxide flux. Our study also highlights the necessity to incorporate more environmental variables related to vegetation growth and more data derived from flux sites into NEP upscaling to reduce uncertainties in carbon budget estimations.

Reproductive gene expression in a coral reef fish exposed to increasing temperature across generations.

Reproduction in marine fish is generally tightly linked with water temperature. Consequently, when adults are exposed to projected future ocean temperatures, reproductive output of many species declines precipitously. Recent research has shown that in the common reef fish, Acanthochromis polyacanthus, step-wise exposure to higher temperatures over two generations (parents: +1.5°C, offspring: +3.0°C) can improve reproductive output in the F2 generation compared to F2 fish that have experienced the same high temperatures over two generations (F1 parents: +3.0°C, F2 offspring: +3.0°C). To investigate how a step-wise increase in temperature between generations improved reproductive capacity, we tested the expression of well-known teleost reproductive genes in the brain and gonads of F2 fish using quantitative reverse transcription PCR and compared it among control (+0.0°C for two generations), developmental (+3.0°C in second generation only), step (+1.5°C in first generation and +3.0°C in second generation), and transgenerational (+3.0°C for two generations) treatments. We found that levels of gonadotropin receptor gene expression (Fshr and Lhcgr) in the testes were reduced in developmental and transgenerational temperature treatments, but were similar to control levels in the step treatment. This suggests Fshr and Lhcgr may be involved in regulating male reproductive capacity in A. polyacanthus. In addition, lower Fshb expression in the brain of females in all temperature treatments compared to control, suggests that Fshb expression, which is involved in vitellogenesis, is sensitive to high temperatures. Our results help elucidate key genes that facilitate successful reproduction in reef fishes when they experience a gradual increase in temperature across generations consistent with the trajectory of climate change.

Novel climates: Trajectories of climate change beyond the boundaries of British Columbia’s forest management knowledge system

Abstract The non-stationary climates of the 21st century are compelling forest managers to seek non-local species, provenances, and silvicultural regimes that are better suited to the anticipated future climates of their operating areas. Ideally, forest managers can source this information from climate analogs within their jurisdictions, but the emergence of unfamiliar climates is a distinct possibility with particular challenges. Here, we present an assessment of the emergence of mid-21st-century climates with no analog in the 20th-century climates of British Columbia (BC), and the extent to which these novel climates are described by climate analogs elsewhere in North America. We use a recently developed linear method of novel climate detection in parallel with Random Forest classification to evaluate the robustness of novel climate inferences. Our results suggest that a majority of the province’s area will remain free of novel climates over this time period, and therefore that BC’s ecological knowledge system, the Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classification, can remain the dominant source of climate analogs for mid-21st-century forest management planning horizons. Nevertheless, we detected a robust pattern of climates that are novel to BC in mid-21st-century climate projections at low elevations in the coastal, southern interior, and northeastern regions of the province. There appears to be potential to inform forest management in some of these novel climates with analogs from adjacent states and provinces. We demonstrate that extrapolations into novel climates typically understate the magnitude of climate change and modeling uncertainty, creating a false impression of robust predictions in locations where model performance is poorest. By identifying portions of their landscapes that are prone to emergence of novel climates, forest managers can avoid management errors and prioritize the search for analogs beyond the boundaries of their knowledge systems.

Similarities and Differences in Barriers and Opportunities Affecting Climate Change Adaptation Action in Four North American Landscapes

Climate change presents a complex set of challenges for natural resource managers across North America. Despite recognition that climate change poses serious threats to species, ecosystems, and human communities, implementation of adaptation measures is not yet happening on a broad scale. Among different regions, a range of climate change trajectories, varying political contexts, and diverse social and ecological systems generate a myriad of factors that can affect progress on climate change adaptation implementation. In order to understand the general versus site-specific nature of barriers and opportunities influencing implementation, we surveyed and interviewed practitioners, decision-makers, and scientists involved in natural resource management in four different North American regions, northern Ontario (Canada), the Adirondack State Park (US), Arctic Alaska (US), and the Transboundary Rocky Mountains (US and Canada). Common barriers among regions related to a lack of political support and financial resources, as well as challenges related to translating complex and interacting effects of climate change into management actions. Opportunities shared among regions related to collaboration, funding, and the presence of strong leadership. These commonalities indicate the importance of cross-site learning about ways to leverage opportunities and address adaptation barriers; however, regional variations also suggest that adaptation efforts will need to be tailored to fit specific ecological, political, social and economic contexts. Comparative findings on the similarities and differences in barriers and opportunities, as well as rankings of barriers and opportunities by region, offers important contextual insights into how to further refine efforts to advance adaptation actions in those regions.

Bridging the gap between climate science and regional-scale biodiversity conservation in south-eastern Australia

Recognition of a trajectory of climate change has raised concerns over implications for the conservation of biodiversity. Quantifying the severity of the issue and informing adaptation measures presents a challenge to ecological modelling.We undertook a study of biodiversity impacts and adaptation using spatial modelling across south-eastern Australia. The study aimed to (1) forecast future impacts on biodiversity arising from 18 plausible climate futures, and (2) identify places where land management actions including revegetation will maximise expected improvements to projected biodiversity persistence. This work augments well-tested regional-scale biodiversity assessment by considering an uncertain future climate.Generalised Dissimilarity Models (GDMs) were developed at two baselines (1990 and 2000) to characterise the continuous nature of compositional turnover of vascular plants varying with climate, soils and landform across the region. The classified outputs of the GDM, representing a vegetation-based biodiversity surrogate, were projected using kernel regression to simulate changing distributions for the future epochs 2020, 2030, 2050 and 2070, referred to as Bio-climatic Classes (BCC). BCC distributions were combined with a model of current ecosystem condition and applied to a range of biodiversity assessment methodologies, including the Biodiversity Forecasting Tool, the Spatial Links Tool and a new coupled time-series metapopulation occupancy model.The BFT evaluation of the BCC distributions and their respective ecosystem conditions, forecasts a reduction in biodiversity persistence across the region of between 3 and 20 percent by 2070 (due to climate change only) adding to a past loss of 20 percent since European settlement (due to land use change only, not other factors such as weeds and pests). Maps of compositional dissimilarity change in vascular plants point to varying degrees of expected change in biodiversity across south-eastern Australia. Conservation benefit analysis indicates a general increase and re-distribution of the relative benefits of undertaking conservation to sustain or enhance biodiversity across the region. Results have been incorporated into novel visualisations, to assist environmental managers and others to interpret the complex concepts and issues associated with the work, and support regional adaptation planning.