Ecosystem Trajectories Research Articles

Twenty-five years on: Widespread kelp forest decline revealed in a potential climatic refugium.

Kelp forests are key temperate ecosystems that experience the combined effects of global and local stressors throughout their distribution range. Niche modelling projections identified NW Spain, a region influenced by an intense upwelling system, as one such potential refugium. However, the recent discovery that fish overgrazing has eradicated kelp forests from certain reefs calls into question the validity of these projections. To determine the actual persistence of kelp forests (Laminaria ochroleuca and Laminaria hyperborea) on a regional scale, we resurveyed 50 sites in 2023 where kelp forests had been recorded up to 25 years earlier. Kelp had either disappeared or been reduced to a few scattered individuals at two-thirds (58%) of the sites. Furthermore, where kelp forests persist, L. ochroleuca is now the dominant canopy-forming kelp, while L. hyperborea has only been recorded at two sites. Kelp forest persistence was negatively correlated with summer sea surface temperature and wave exposure. Altogether, our results indicate that kelp forest decline is widespread in NW Spain, challenging the view of this region as a climate refugium and underscoring the difficulty of accurately predicting the trajectory of such complex and fragile ecosystems. Furthermore, in line with the recommendations of the OSPAR Convention, this study lays the foundation for a long-term monitoring network along a region where kelp forests are undergoing rapid change.

Impacts of a short-interval severe fire on forest structure and regeneration in a temperate Andean Araucaria-Nothofagus forest

BackgroundWarmer climate conditions are altering fire regimes globally, eroding the capacity of forest ecosystems to resist and recover from natural disturbances like wildfire. Severe and rapidly repeated wildfires are promoting tree regeneration failure of obligate-seeders and/or fire-sensitive species in temperate forests of the Southern Hemisphere. We collected post-fire field data to evaluate whether forest structure and tree regeneration responses varied between two Andean forest study areas dominated by the threatened Gondwanan conifer Araucaria araucana and Nothofagus species (southern beeches) — one area burned once, the other reburned after 13 years.ResultsTree mortality was high across species after a single high severity and/or repeated wildfire, although some A. araucana trees were able to survive both events. Post-fire seedling regeneration of A. araucana and Nothofagus spp. was poor in areas affected by severe wildfires, and the latter was absent from reburned plots. A key driver of this regeneration failure was increasing distance to live seed source trees, which was negatively correlated with these species’ post-fire seedling abundances. In contrast, species with the capacity to regenerate via resprouting (A. araucana, N. alpina, N. obliqua) did so after a single high severity fire; however, only a single Nothofagus species (N. alpina) resprouted abundantly after a reburn.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that high severity and short-interval fires can drastically change the structure of and limit post-fire tree regeneration in Araucaria-Nothofagus forests, promoting alternative post-fire forest ecosystem trajectories. Resprouting species of the Nothofagus genus, especially N. alpina, exhibit the greatest resilience to these emerging fire patterns. These forests are currently facing an unprecedented climatic shift toward greater fire activity, where resprouting is the favored regeneration strategy. If the occurrence of severe and short-interval fires increases in the coming decades, as predicted, we expect Araucaria-Nothofagus forests to shift toward a drier, more flammable shrubland ecosystem state.

Moderating effects of past wildfire on reburn severity depend on climate and initial severity in Western US forests.

Rising global fire activity is increasing the prevalence of repeated short-interval burning (reburning) in forests worldwide. In forests that historically experienced frequent-fire regimes, high-severity fire exacerbates the severity of subsequent fires by increasing prevalence of shrubs and/or by creating drier understory conditions. Low- to moderate-severity fire, in contrast, can moderate future fire behavior by reducing fuel loads. The extent to which previous fires moderate future fire severity will powerfully affect fire-prone forest ecosystem trajectories over the next century. Further, knowing where and when a wildfire may act as a landscape-scale fuel treatment can help direct pre- and post-fire management efforts. We leverage satellite imagery and fire progression mapping to model reburn dynamics within forests that initially burned at low/moderate severity in 726 unique fire pair events over a 36-year period across four large fire-prone Western US ecoregions. We ask (1) how strong are the moderating effects of low- to moderate-severity fire on future fire severity, (2) how long do moderating effects last, and (3) how does the time between fires (a proxy for fuel accumulation) interact with initial fire severity, day-of-burning weather conditions, and climate to influence reburn severity. Short-interval reburns primarily occurred in dry- and moist-mixed conifer forests with historically frequent-fire regimes. Previous fire moderated reburn severity in all ecoregions with the strongest effects occurring in the California Coast and Western Mountains and the average duration of moderating effects ranging from 13 years in the Western Mountains to >36 years in the California Coast. The strength and duration of moderating effects depended on climate and initial fire severity in some regions, reflecting differences in post-fire fuel accumulation. In the California Coast, moderating effects lasted longer in cooler and wetter forests. In the Western Mountains, moderating effects were stronger and longer lasting in forests that initially burned at higher severity. Moderating effects were largely robust to fire weather, suggesting that previous fire can mediate future fire severity even under extreme conditions. Our findings demonstrate that low- to moderate-severity fire buffers future fire severity in historically frequent-fire forests, underlining the importance of wildfire as a restoration tool for adapting to global change.

Characterizing a regional fishery ecosystem trajectory: the Humpty Dumpty fish tale of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico from 1986 to 2013

Showcasing the fishery ecosystem trajectory framework, this study seeks to understand the complex interplay between environmental, socioeconomic, and management factors in a large marine ecosystem as they relate to the status, structure, and function of living marine resources over time. Utilizing this framework, a historical accounting of a fishery ecosystem’s shifting stable states can be developed to describe the evolution of resources and identify apparent temporal controls. To that end, approximately three decades of data, spanning 1986–2013, were drawn from the 2017 ecosystem status report for the United States’ Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and used here as a case study. Analyses revealed a capricious system with ten unique fishery regime states over the 28-year period. The fishery ecosystem trajectory was broadly characterized by gradual and persistent changes, likely fueled by exploitation trends. However, a mid-1990s paradigm shift in the dynamics controlling the system-wide organization of resources resulted in an apparent recovery trajectory before leading to continued differentiation relative to its 1986 baseline configuration. This “Humpty Dumpty” ecosystem trajectory signifies permanent alterations akin to the nursery rhyme protagonist’s unrecoverable fall. Anthropogenic factors identified as influential to resource organization included artificial reef prevalence and recreational fishing pressure, while regional effects of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation’s warm phase transition after 1995 and rising sea surface temperatures in the GoM were also deemed notable. Conspicuously, the paradigm shift timing was coincident with effective implementation of annual catch limits due to the 1996 Sustainable Fisheries Act, highlighting the importance of the robust regulatory environment in this region. While these results describe the GoM fishery ecosystem’s vulnerability to shifting environmental and socioeconomic conditions, they also underscore its resources’ resilience, likely rooted in their complexity and diversity, to the rapidly evolving pressures observed throughout the study period. This work emphasizes the necessity of cautious, adaptive management strategies for large marine ecosystems, particularly in the face of climate-related uncertainties and species’ differential responses. It provides insight into the GoM fishery ecosystem’s dynamics and illustrates a transferable approach for informing ecosystem-based management strategies, sustainable practices, and decision making focused on preserving ecologically, economically, and culturally vital marine resources.

Changes in above- versus belowground biomass distribution in permafrost regions in response to climate warming

Permafrost regions contain approximately half of the carbon stored in land ecosystems and have warmed at least twice as much as any other biome. This warming has influenced vegetation activity, leading to changes in plant composition, physiology, and biomass storage in aboveground and belowground components, ultimately impacting ecosystem carbon balance. Yet, little is known about the causes and magnitude of long-term changes in the above- to belowground biomass ratio of plants (η). Here, we analyzed η values using 3,013 plots and 26,337 species-specific measurements across eight sites on the Tibetan Plateau from 1995 to 2021. Our analysis revealed distinct temporal trends in η for three vegetation types: a 17% increase in alpine wetlands, and a decrease of 26% and 48% in alpine meadows and alpine steppes, respectively. These trends were primarily driven by temperature-induced growth preferences rather than shifts in plant species composition. Our findings indicate that in wetter ecosystems, climate warming promotes aboveground plant growth, while in drier ecosystems, such as alpine meadows and alpine steppes, plants allocate more biomass belowground. Furthermore, we observed a threefold strengthening of the warming effect on η over the past 27 y. Soil moisture was found to modulate the sensitivity of η to soil temperature in alpine meadows and alpine steppes, but not in alpine wetlands. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the processes driving the response of biomass distribution to climate warming, which is crucial for predicting the future carbon trajectory of permafrost ecosystems and climate feedback.

Soil warming effects on the transpiration of trees and shrubs in a subtropical secondary forest: A manipulative experiment

The climate warming can increase the productivity of some species while decrease that of others, therefore, knowledge of species-specific responses to warming is helpful to understand the possible trajectory of forest ecosystems. Despite the importance of the subtropical secondary broadleaf forests developed from afforestation in South China, our understanding of how the transpiration of trees and shrubs co-growing in these forests responds to soil warming is limited. To explore the effects of soil warming on transpiration and associated ecophysiological traits of trees and shrubs in wet and dry seasons, as well as to clarify respective contributions of trees and shrubs transpiration to the stand total, we conducted a manipulative experiment of soil warming (+2 ℃, WA) and control (CK) in a subtropical secondary broadleaf forest in South China, and continuously monitored the transpiration (based on sap flow) of trees, Schima superba and Acacia auriculiformis, and that (derived from leaf temperature and microclimate) of shrubs, Psychotria asiatica and Castanopsis chinensis, from 2021 to 2022. We also measured leaf water potentials, leaf nutrient status, and δ13C-derived intrinsic water use efficiency (WUEi). Soil warming did not significantly alter the transpiration of trees, with the exception of A. auriculiformis in 2022, whereas it notably increased transpiration of both shrubs. We attributed the stimulation of shrubs’ transpiration mainly to the more favorable leaf water potentials under warming condition. Due to the increased transpiration, the contribution of shrubs to stand transpiration was consequently increased, highlighting the potential role of shrubs in the hydrological dynamics of forest ecosystems. Additionally, the WUEi, soil main macro-nutrients, and leaf nutritional status of all species were not significantly affected by soil warming. These findings indicated that the carbon-water exchange and nutrient status of the studied plants can be maintained even when exposed to moderate increases in soil temperature and relatively drier condition, reflecting the resilience of the subtropical secondary broadleaf forest to possible climate warming. Further research on the interaction and competition of co-existing trees and shrubs under soil warming will improve the prediction of forest dynamics under future climate change, which benefits the efforts to conserve such forests in order to address the environmental pressure in the region.

The capacity of sentinel species to detect changes in environmental conditions and ecosystem structure

Abstract A major obstacle to preventing and reversing biodiversity loss in the Anthropocene lies in the scarcity of tools and data for monitoring the health and trajectory of ecosystems. Sentinel species can provide insight into unobserved ecosystem change, but it is unclear how effective sentinels are due to the local, context‐dependent nature of past research. Here, we present the first global evaluation on the effectiveness of sentinel species as indicators of ecosystem change. We conducted a meta‐analysis on 372 case studies to identify the ecological and methodological factors that correlate with the most effective sentinel species. Sentinel performance did not vary consistently across taxa or system; instead, sentinels that were more directly linked to ecosystem change due to their trophic role as predators were more effective. In addition, sentinel responses that were measured on a shorter timescale were more effective at indicating ecosystem change. Policy Implications. These results contribute to the longstanding debate on “what makes a good sentinel” and demonstrate the importance of both ecological and methodological factors when selecting sentinels to detect ecosystem change. For example, sentinel species which are trophically linked and measured on short timescales may be more effective for managers seeking to monitor ecosystem change than other species. By identifying effective traits for the use of sentinel species, scientists and policymakers will be able to develop rapid and adaptable management plans in response to global change.

Suspended particulate matter response to extreme forcings in the Bay of Seine

The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report of 2023 alerts about an increase in the occurrence and intensity of extreme hydro-meteorological events such as storms and extreme river flows, i.e. drought and floods. Investigating the occurrence of these extreme events in the past 15 years and their impacts on sediment dynamics will provide crucial knowledge for anticipating future trajectories of coastal ecosystems. Time series from in situ observations are analyzed to identify extreme events of river flows and waves and examine their impact on Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM) dynamics in a highly turbid coastal area equipped with a high frequency in situ monitoring station at the interface between the Seine Estuary and the Bay of Seine (northern coast of France). Extreme river flow and wave orbital velocity events are investigated because high river discharge contributes to deliver large amounts of SPM concentration to the bay and strong wave action within the bay can lead to erosion and resuspension of bottom sediments. An original detection method is proposed, based on high frequency in situ observations combined with satellite and model data from 2006 to 2022. Extreme forcings are examined through their specific characteristics (high intensity, long duration, season of occurrence, succession of events), their impact on SPM concentration in the coastal environment and the comparison to mean seasonal dynamics. A positive relationship exists between SPM concentration and high SPM spatial extent and forcing intensity. Extremes are more intense in winter for both forcings and generate larger SPM concentration anomalies. However, extreme events during late spring/summer, periods or mean low forcing intensity, are demonstrated to generate SPM concentration anomalies up to 4 times larger than the monthly mean value, hence possibly strongly impacting the system during these atypical periods. This is particularly important as analyzing the distribution of extreme river flow events over the last 60 years indicated an increase in their occurrence and more important the progressive occurrence of high intensity extreme events during spring/summer periods.

A digital twin of the infant microbiome to predict neurodevelopmental deficits.

Despite the recognized gut-brain axis link, natural variations in microbial profiles between patients hinder definition of normal abundance ranges, confounding the impact of dysbiosis on infant neurodevelopment. We infer a digital twin of the infant microbiome, forecasting ecosystem trajectories from a few initial observations. Using 16S ribosomal RNA profiles from 88 preterm infants (398 fecal samples and 32,942 abundance estimates for 91 microbial classes), the model (Q-net) predicts abundance dynamics with R2 = 0.69. Contrasting the fit to Q-nets of typical versus suboptimal development, we can reliably estimate individual deficit risk (Mδ) and identify infants achieving poor future head circumference growth with ≈76% area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, 95% ± 1.8% positive predictive value at 98% specificity at 30 weeks postmenstrual age. We find that early transplantation might mitigate risk for ≈45.2% of the cohort, with potentially negative effects from incorrect supplementation. Q-nets are generative artificial intelligence models for ecosystem dynamics, with broad potential applications.

Using ancient sedimentary DNA to forecast ecosystem trajectories under climate change.

Ecosystem response to climate change is complex. In order to forecast ecosystem dynamics, we need high-quality data on changes in past species abundance that can inform process-based models. Sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) has revolutionised our ability to document past ecosystems' dynamics. It provides time series of increased taxonomic resolution compared to microfossils (pollen, spores), and can often give species-level information, especially for past vascular plant and mammal abundances. Time series are much richer in information than contemporary spatial distribution information, which have been traditionally used to train models for predicting biodiversity and ecosystem responses to climate change. Here, we outline the potential contribution of sedaDNA to forecast ecosystem changes. We showcase how species-level time series may allow quantification of the effect of biotic interactions in ecosystem dynamics, and be used to estimate dispersal rates when a dense network of sites is available. By combining palaeo-time series, process-based models, and inverse modelling, we can recover the biotic and abiotic processes underlying ecosystem dynamics, which are traditionally very challenging to characterise. Dynamic models informed by sedaDNA can further be used to extrapolate beyond current dynamics and provide robust forecasts of ecosystem responses to future climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Identifying anthropogenic legacy in freshwater ecosystems

AbstractThe legacy of historic anthropogenic disturbance can significantly affect the structure and function of contemporary freshwater ecosystems. Environmental research and management that neglect anthropogenic legacy are likely to lead to a biased interpretation of present and future ecosystem dynamics. Yet, anthropogenic legacy remains poorly considered, mainly because of the challenges associated with its identification. Synthesizing past progress in legacy research, we present a conceptual framework for the systematic identification of anthropogenic legacy. We focus on the dynamic processes occurring during legacy formation (e.g., disturbance regime, ecosystem trajectories). Based on the review of relevant case studies, we discuss the historical and contemporary sources of information (e.g., communication, cartographic, paleoenvironmental sources) that can be employed for legacy identification. Finally, we provide practical examples of anthropogenic legacy identification in real‐world freshwater ecosystems. Produced in multidisciplinary collaboration, this review presents a comprehensive approach to anthropogenic legacy to foster its informed and systematic consideration in freshwater research and management.This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Water and Environmental Change Water and Life > Stresses and Pressures on Ecosystems

Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system

The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern1–3. For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system1. Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving different feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local efforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global efforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions.

Integrating cryptic diversity into coral evolution, symbiosis and conservation.

Understanding how diversity evolves and is maintained is critical to predicting the future trajectories of ecosystems under climate change; however, our understanding of these processes is limited in marine systems. Corals, which engineer reef ecosystems, are critically threatened by climate change, and global efforts are underway to conserve and restore populations as attempts to mitigate ocean warming continue. Recently, sequencing efforts have uncovered widespread undescribed coral diversity, including 'cryptic lineages'-genetically distinct but morphologically similar coral taxa. Such cryptic lineages have been identified in at least 24 coral genera spanning the anthozoan phylogeny and across ocean basins. These cryptic lineages co-occur in many reef systems, but their distributions often differ among habitats. Research suggests that cryptic lineages are ecologically specialized and several examples demonstrate differences in thermal tolerance, highlighting the critical implications of this diversity for predicting coral responses to future warming. Here, we draw attention to recent discoveries, discuss how cryptic diversity affects the study of coral adaptation and acclimation to future environments, explore how it shapes symbiotic partnerships, and highlight challenges and opportunities for conservation and restoration efforts.

A multiyear time series (2004-2012) of bacterial and archaeal community dynamics in a changing Arctic Ocean.

Climate change is profoundly impacting the Arctic, leading to a loss of multiyear sea ice and a warmer, fresher upper Arctic Ocean. The response of microbial communities to these climate-mediated changes is largely unknown. Here, we document the interannual variation in bacterial and archaeal communities across a 9-year time series of the Canada Basin that includes two historic sea ice minima (2007 and 2012). We report an overall loss of bacterial and archaeal community richness and significant shifts in community composition. The magnitude and period of most rapid change differed between the stratified water layers. The most pronounced changes in the upper water layers (surface mixed layer and upper Arctic water) occurred earlier in the time series, while changes in the lower layer (Pacific-origin water) occurred later. Shifts in taxonomic composition across time were subtle, but a decrease in Bacteroidota taxa and increase in Thaumarchaeota and Euryarchaeota taxa were the clearest signatures of change. This time series provides a rare glimpse into the potential influence of climate change on Arctic microbial communities; extension to the present day should contribute to deeper insights into the trajectory of Arctic marine ecosystems in response to warming and freshening.

Soil microbiome feedbacks during disturbance-driven forest ecosystem conversion.

Disturbances cause rapid changes to forests, with different disturbance types and severities creating unique ecosystem trajectories that can impact the underlying soil microbiome. Pile burning-the combustion of logging residue on the forest floor-is a common fuel reduction practice that can have impacts on forest soils analogous to those following high-severity wildfire. Further, pile burning following clear-cut harvesting can create persistent openings dominated by nonwoody plants surrounded by dense regenerating conifer forest. A paired 60-year chronosequence of burn scar openings and surrounding regenerating forest after clear-cut harvesting provides a unique opportunity to assess whether belowground microbial processes mirror aboveground vegetation during disturbance-induced ecosystem shifts. Soil ectomycorrhizal fungal diversity was reduced the first decade after pile burning, which could explain poor tree seedling establishment and subsequent persistence of herbaceous species within the openings. Fine-scale changes in the soil microbiome mirrored aboveground shifts in vegetation, with short-term changes to microbial carbon cycling functions resembling a postfire microbiome (e.g. enrichment of aromatic degradation genes) and respiration in burn scars decoupled from substrate quantity and quality. Broadly, however, soil microbiome composition and function within burn scar soils converged with that of the surrounding regenerating forest six decades after the disturbances, indicating potential microbial resilience that was disconnected from aboveground vegetation shifts. This work begins to unravel the belowground microbial processes that underlie disturbance-induced ecosystem changes, which are increasing in frequency tied to climate change.

An example of accelerated changes in current and future ecosystem trajectories: Unexpected rapid transitions in salt marsh vegetation forced by sea level rise

Accelerated sea level rise has forced greater changes in the vegetation of Great Sippewissett Marsh during the recent few years than were recorded in the previous half century. Even with conservative estimates of sea level rise, accretion in the salt marsh platform would be insufficient to match submergence, but in addition, a new set of cascading changes seem to be accelerating the transformation of the Great Sippewissett Marsh vegetation mosaic, including conversion of cover by short to taller Spartina alterniflora, leading to lowering below-ground biomass and weakening of sediment columns, while the greater above-ground biomass increases wrack that strands and smothers high marsh vegetation. In addition, a salt-tolerant variant of Phragmites australis has begun to aggressively invade upper elevations of Great Sippewissett Marsh, replacing high marsh species cover, as well as dominating adjoining low-lying areas that might have allowed salt marsh landward migration as sea level effects increase. In many parts of Great Sippewissett Marsh, area of high marsh is steadily diminishing, taller S. alterniflora has extended upwards in areas previously supporting high marsh species, but its landward progress is now impeded by competition and shading by the phalanx of P. australis that has extended down-slope. The vegetation gradient in Great Sippewissett Marsh—and other salt marshes—is in rapid transition, and its decadal future seems in doubt.

Insight on thermal stress response of demosponge Chondrosia reniformis (Nardo, 1847)

Global warming has led to an increase in extreme weather and climate phenomena, including floods and heatwaves. Marine heatwaves have frightening consequences for coastal benthic communities around the world. Each species exhibits a natural range of thermal tolerance and responds to temperature variations through behavioral, physiological, biochemical, and molecular adjustments. Physiological stress leading to disease and mass mortality appears when tolerance thresholds are exceeded. Sessile species are therefore particularly affected by these phenomena. Among these sessile species, marine sponges are important members of coral reef ecosystems. To better understand the sponge thermal stress response, we tested the response of demosponge Chondrosia reniformis (Nardo, 1847) to three different temperatures (8 °C, 24 °C and 30 °C) during two exposure periods of time (4 and 14 h). Histological studies of whole parts of the sponge, biochemical analyses (Defense enzymes) and gene expression levels of some target genes were undertaken in this study. The exposure to cold temperature (8 °C) resulted in inhibition of antioxidant enzymes and less modification in the gene expression level of the heat shock proteins (HSPs). These latter were strongly upregulated after exposure to a temperature of 24 °C for 4 h. However, exposure to 30 °C at both periods of time resulted in indication of HSP, antioxidant enzymes, the gene involved in the apoptosis process (Bcl-2: B-cell lymphoma 2), the gene involved in inflammation (TNF: Tumor Necrosis Factor), as well as the aquaporin gene, involved in H2O2 permeation. Moreover, the normal organization of the whole organism was disrupted by the extension and fusion of choanocyte chambers and alteration of the pinacoderm. Interestingly, exposure to sublethal temperatures may show that this sponge has an adaptation threshold temperature. These insights into the adaptation mechanisms of sponges contribute to better management and conservation of sponges and to the prediction of ecosystem trajectories with future climate change.

Inventory analysis of fire effects wrought by wind-driven megafires in relation to weather and pre-fire forest structure in the western Cascades

BackgroundSix synchronous, wind-driven, high severity megafires burned over 300,000 hectares of mesic temperate forest in the western Cascades of NW Oregon and SW Washington states in early September 2020. While remote sensing data has been utilized to estimate fire severity across the fires, assessments of fire impacts informed by field observations are missing. We compiled field measurement data, pre- and post-fire, from a statistically representative sample of existing forest inventory analysis (FIA) plots, to estimate stand-level fire effects indices that describe (1) tree survival and its implications for carbon emissions, (2) effects on tree crowns, and (3) effects on soils. Field observations were analyzed in relation to fire weather when plots burned and to evaluate accuracy of remotely sensed burn severity classifications.ResultsWind speed strongly interacted with tree size and stand age to influence tree survival. Under high fuel aridity but light winds, young stands composed of small trees, found primarily on private lands, exhibited a much lower survival rate than older stands composed of medium to large trees, found primarily on federal lands. Under moderate to high winds, poor tree survival was characteristic of all forest structures and ownerships. Fire impacts on tree crowns were strongly related to wind speed, while fire impacts on soils were not. These fires transferred nearly 70 MMT CO2e from wood in live and growing trees to a combination of immediate smoke and carbon emissions, plus delayed emissions from dead wood, that will release most of the embodied carbon over the next few decades. These emissions will exceed all 2020 anthropogenic emissions in Oregon (64 MMT CO2e). Substantial discrepancies were observed between two remotely sensed burn severity products, BAER-SBS and MTBS-TC, and field observed soil organic matter cover and tree mortality, respectively.ConclusionsPost-fire FIA plot remeasurements are valuable for understanding fire’s impact on forest ecosystems and as an empirical basis for model validation and hypothesis testing. This continuous forest inventory system will compound the value of these post-fire remeasurements, enabling analysis of post-fire forest ecosystem trajectories in relation to both immediate fire impacts and pre-fire conditions.

Mapping coral reef habitats of Apo Reef Natural Park, Sablayan, Occidental Mindoro, Philippines

Limited spatial information on Philippine oceanic coral reef resources poses a challenge to conservation and management. In the face of an increased occurrence of natural disturbances, repetitive, broad-scale spatial information is critical in determining large-scale patterns that help managers resolve the potential trajectory of the coral reef ecosystems, elucidating whether it will recover or continue to decline. In this study, we provide a decent habitat map of Apo Reef Natural Park using freely available Sentinel-2 data using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing platform. Through the use of training and validation data, we implemented supervised classification via the classification and regression trees (CART) algorithm. The results successfully delineated four major habitat classes across ARNP with an acceptable level of accuracy (58.8%). These habitat classes are: Mixed Live Coral and DCA habitat, DCA habitat, Mixed Rubble and DCA habitat, and Sand habitat. In total, we mapped over 6,000 hectares of shallow subtidal habitats across a 27,000-hectare protected area. Among the classes, sand-dominated habitats had the largest coverage in the shallow subtidal section of the reef complex. The total hard coralline substrate was estimated to cover over 3,800 hectares. The impact of consecutive, high-intensity disturbances that hit ARNP resulted in the predominance of algae-covered habitat types, which in turn resulted in relatively high classification errors of DCA habitats, and Mixed Live Coral and DCA habitats. It is expected that as the reef recovers, accuracy in discerning these habitat types will eventually increase. The study shows the utility of the GEE platform in conducting low-cost, broad-scale monitoring of oceanic reef complexes at a resolution that is acceptable for management purposes.

A diverse diapsid tooth assemblage from the Early Triassic (Driefontein locality, South Africa) records the recovery of diapsids following the end-Permian mass extinction.

Mass extinctions change the trajectory of evolution and restructure ecosystems. The largest mass extinction, the end-Permian, is a particularly interesting case due to the hypothesized delay in the recovery of global ecosystems, where total trophic level recovery is not thought to have occurred until 5-9 million years after the extinction event. Diapsids, especially archosauromorphs, play an important role in this recovery, filling niches left vacant by therapsids and anapsids. However, the nature of lineage and ecological diversification of diapsids is obscured by the limited number of continuous, well-dated stratigraphic sections at the Permian-Triassic boundary and continuing through the first half of the Triassic. The Karoo Basin of South Africa is one such record, and particularly the late Early Triassic (Olenekian) Driefontein locality fills this gap in the diapsid fossil record. We collected a total of 102 teeth of which 81 are identified as diapsids and the remaining 21 as identified as temnospondyls. From the sample, seven distinct tooth morphotypes of diapsids are recognized, six of which are new to the locality. We used a combination of linear measurements, 3D geomorphometrics, and nMDS ordination to compare these morphotypes and made inferences about their possible diets. Although the morphotypes are readily differentiated in nMDS, the overall morphological disparity is low, and we infer five morphotypes are faunivorous with the other two potentially omnivorous or piscivorous based on their morphological similarities with dentitions from extant diapsids, demonstrating an unsampled taxonomic and ecological diversity of diapsids in the Early Triassic based on teeth. Although ecological specialization at Driefontein may be low, it records a diversity of diapsid taxa, specifically of archosauromorph lineages.