Trajectories Of Crime Research Articles

Reading Wacquant as both ‘lumper’ and ‘splitter’

In this short response to Loïc Wacquant's ‘Marginality, Ethnicity and Penality in the Neo-liberal City’, I outline two intellectual conversations that emerge from the author's work. The first develops out of the connections that the author draws between systems of criminal justice and welfare. The second grows out of the disassociation he urges us to see between the logics and trajectories of crime, on the one hand, and criminal justice on the other. I then briefly describe how my own work has been influenced by and contributes to these two ongoing streams of research.

Christopher Salvatore: Arrested Adolescent Offenders: A Study of Delayed Transitions to Adulthood

Christopher Salvatore explores the effects of emerging adulthood on recent generations, arguing that it produces a new type of offender, the arrested adolescent. Salvatore believes that the emergence of this new stage may be having an adverse effect on juveniles by extending the period of adolescence. To do so, he describes different theories and research that focuses on adolescents, particularly adolescents with criminal offenses and the implications of life course theory. His study reveals not only the effects of the new period of the life course on juveniles but also the changes occurring in the criminal justice system and avenues of new research. This book does not look to exploit a theory. Rather, it seeks to better understand emerging adults who engage in criminal behavior in order to preserve their future generations instead of criminalizing them. This study provides insight into what may be causing youth to extend past the ‘‘typical age’’ of criminal behavior. In Chapter 1, Salvatore explores the meaning of emerging adulthood and the implications it has on adolescent crime patterns. In present society, the gap between adolescence and adulthood has lengthened due to postponed marriage and childbearing, extended education and self-exploration. Salvatore understands emerging adulthood as a contemporary term describing the period of time lasting from age 18 to 25, but also a period that may continue through the late twenties and thirties. This newly recognized stage of development has created a new offender type through low-level offenders who usually peak early on the ‘‘age crime curve’’ (Salvatore 2013, p. 1). ‘‘The age of crime curve refers to the age distribution of crime...the onset of criminality is typically around age 10, offending peaks between the ages of 15 and 19, and then gradually declines until about age 55 where the ageadjusted rate of criminality is close to zero’’ (Salvatore 2013, p. 1). The author relies on the conceptualization offered by T. E. Moffitt, who created a classification of different offender types. The first type are abstainers who commit no crime, create good social bonds, transition promptly during turning points, and have no neuropsychological deficiencies. The second type is the adolescent limited offender or AL whose level of crime is low during teenage years and decreases as they age out of adolescence and progress into traditional life course turning points. An example of this is committing shoplifting or public disorder crimes until reaching the end of adolescence and sustaining full-time employment as a turning point. This low-level crime is usually brought about by role confusion caused by the gap in biological maturity and cultural maturity. AL members who do not transition into culturally defined turning points, for example marriage, continue as low level arrested adolescents (AAO), which creates the third offender subgroup. These individuals have the same characteristics but AAO’s have failed to create adult social bonds which further extend their criminal behavior. The last offender subgroup consists of the ‘‘life course persistent’’ offenders or LCPs who commit serious, predatory crimes and have poor social bonds, absent turning points, and neuropsychological deficiencies. These different categories reveal the purpose of the study which is to identify whether this new stage of development is inducing ‘‘offending trajectories’’ by lengthening adolescent limited offenders’ active crime period. Chapter 1 also identifies the challenges that the lengthened trajectories of crime create for the Criminal Justice system. The first is a rise in courts’ and correctional D. Foster (&) Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, USA e-mail: darfoste@indiana.edu

The Trajectory of White-Collar Crime Following the Great Economic Meltdown

This article reviews issues in white-collar crime research related to both the causes and aftermath of the 2008 economic meltdown. The absence of major prosecutions, new legislation designed to prevent similar debacles, and post-meltdown case studies are discussed to illuminate the culture and business practices of major companies that were responsible for the unprecedented losses to the financial system and the resulting taxpayer bailout. We conclude that despite new legislation, regulatory gaps and continued lack of adequate oversight as a result of intense lobbying by the financial industry, as well as a non-understanding of the role of fraud in major financial debacles by policy makers, virtually guarantee that future financial crises will occur due to fraud, even in the most elite firms.

The Effects of Police Contact on Trajectories of Violence

This study uses a life course framework to investigate how police contacts may serve as a potential turning point in a violent crime trajectory. Drawing on the central ideas from deterrence and labeling theories, we determine whether individuals on different violent offending trajectories increase or decrease their offending following a police contact. Analyzing nine waves of data from the Rochester Youth Development Study, an integrated propensity score matching and latent class growth model was used. First, three violent trajectory groups emerged including high offenders, non-offenders, and low offenders. Second, after accounting for selection bias using propensity score matching procedures, experiencing a police contact increased the likelihood of future violent offending for the entire sample and for those who were on a low violent-offending trajectory specifically. These findings are interpreted as partial support for labeling theory. Limitations of the study and directions for future research are discussed.

Trajectories of Crime and Familial Characteristics

The present study primarily aims to empirically identify offender trajectory groups and their associated first-, second-, and third-degree familial characteristics. Data were extracted on all first and subsequent juvenile offenders ( n = 18,915) with criminal convictions ( n = 90,393) from 1996 to 2008 recorded in the National Crime Registry of the State of Israel. Semiparametric group-based modeling identified low-rate (76.88%), late-peak adolescence (3.85%), middle-peak adolescence (10.22%), early-peak adolescence (3.22%), and chronic (5.83%) offender trajectories. Compared with low-rate offenders, chronic offenders had significantly more nonviolent offenses and first-degree imprisoned relatives who were imprisoned during childhood and adolescence. In conclusion, parental imprisonment appears to act as a parent–child separation mechanism that modestly increases the likelihood of chronic offending.

Onset, Offending Trajectories, and Crime Specialization in Violence

Using data from the Montreal Longitudinal Study, the current study investigates whether age of onset is informative about the dynamic aspects of violent behaviors in males over time, in terms of violent offending frequency, crime trajectory, and, most importantly, crime specialization in violence. Self-reported data at three time points were used. Group-based modeling showed much heterogeneity in the shape of violent trajectories, which were associated with various crime specialization patterns over time. Most importantly, the number and shape of these trajectories were not accounted for by overall age of onset. Study findings show that while age of onset, especially the age of onset of violence, might be informative of the likelihood of committing a violent crime in middle adolescence, it is not informative about the dynamic process of violent offending. Of importance, violent adult offenders specializing in such crimes in adulthood were not necessarily early starters.

Modeling Criminal Careers as Departures From a Unimodal Population Age–Crime Curve: The Case of Marijuana Use

A major aim of longitudinal analyses of life-course data is to describe the within- and between-individual variability in a behavioral outcome, such as crime. Statistical analyses of such data typically draw on mixture and mixed-effects growth models. In this work, we present a functional analytic point of view and develop an alternative method that models individual crime trajectories as departures from a population age–crime curve. Drawing on empirical and theoretical claims in criminology, we assume a unimodal population age–crime curve and allow individual expected crime trajectories to differ by their levels of offending and patterns of temporal misalignment. We extend Bayesian hierarchical curve registration methods to accommodate count data and to incorporate influence of baseline covariates on individual behavioral trajectories. Analyzing self-reported counts of yearly marijuana use from the Denver Youth Survey, we examine the influence of race and gender categories on differences in levels and timing of marijuana smoking. We find that our approach offers a flexible model for longitudinal crime trajectories and allows for a rich array of inferences of interest to criminologists and drug abuse researchers. This article has supplementary materials online.

Reducing Crime by Shaping the Built Environment with Zoning: An Empirical Study of Los Angeles

The idea of using law to change the built environment in ways that reduce opportunities to commit crimes has a long history. Unfortunately, this idea has received relatively little attention in the legal academy and only limited rigorous empirical scrutiny. In this Article, we review the considerable literature on the relationship between zoning, the built environment, and crime. We then report the results of two empirical studies on these relationships. First, we conducted a study of the effect of zoning on crime using 205 blocks selected in eight different relatively high crime neighborhoods in Los Angeles that have similar demographic character- istics but different forms of zoned land use. We find that mixed commercial- and residential-zoned areas are associated with lower crime than are commercial-only zoned areas. Second, we matched neighborhoods undergoing zoning changes between 2006 and 2010 with neighborhoods that underwent no zoning changes during this period but had similar preexisting crime trajectories between 1994 and 2005. The primary zoning change in these neighborhoods was to convert parcels to residential uses. We find that neighborhoods in which there was a zoning change experienced a significant decline in crime. Our results suggest that mixing residential-only zoning into commercial blocks may be a promising means of reducing crime.

Changes in At-Risk American Men's Crime and Substance Use Trajectories Following Fatherhood.

Fatherhood can be a turning point in development and in men's crime and substance use trajectories. At-risk boys (N = 206) were assessed annually from ages 12 to 31 years. Crime, arrest, and tobacco, alcohol, and marijuana use trajectories were examined. Marriage was associated with lower levels of crime and less frequent substance use. Following the birth of a first biological child, men's crime trajectories showed slope decreases, and tobacco and alcohol use trajectories showed level decreases. The older men were when they became fathers, the greater the level decreases were in crime and alcohol use and the less the slope decreases were in tobacco and marijuana use. Patterns are consistent with theories of social control and social timetables.

Using the Group‐Based Trajectory Model to Study Crime Over the Life Course

Recognizing that social, behavioral, and biological processes evolve over time, criminologists have been interested in how the phenomenon of crime changes over time and thus have paid close attention to developmental trajectories of crime. Several research methodologies and statistical techniques have been developed to permit study of developmental trajectories. This paper provides a non‐technical overview of a method developed to examine behavioral changes over age or time—group‐based trajectory modeling (GBTM). Following background material, we provide an overview of the technique. This is followed by a discussion of the applicability of the method to a variety of criminological questions, a brief review of the existing applications of the method, including the software used, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of the trajectory approach for particular questions. The paper concludes with an outline of methodological and substantive “next‐steps” regarding GBTM and its application in criminology and criminal justice research.

Monetary Costs of Gender and Ethnicity Disaggregated Group-Based Offending

Research on criminal careers has examined distinct longitudinal patterns of offending across unique trajectories of offenders and a recent study has linked the costs of criminal offending imposed by these unique trajectories, with a specific focus on chronic offenders. In this study, we use longitudinal data from the Second Philadelphia Birth Cohort Study to examine the extent to which the monetary costs of crime across distinct trajectories of crime vary across both gender and ethnicity. Results indicate that male adolescent-peaked and low and high-rate chronic offending impose substantial costs, and the average costs imposed on society by one male high-rate chronic offender is greater than $1.5 million. Although female chronic offending is rarer, these female offenders still impose greater than $750,000 in costs on average. African-American chronic-offending costs the most of any racial/ethnic trajectory group at greater than $1.6 million on average for each chronic offender. Hispanic chronic offending on average costs slightly more than $200,000, and low-rate White offending costs greater than $100,000 on average. Costs also appear to peak at different ages for males and females and for African-Americans, Hispanics, and Whites. Policy implications and study limitations are also discussed.

Is it Important to Examine Crime Trends at a Local “Micro” Level?: A Longitudinal Analysis of Street to Street Variability in Crime Trajectories

Over the last 40 years, the question of how crime varies across places has gotten greater attention. At the same time, as data and computing power have increased, the definition of a ‘place’ has shifted farther down the geographic cone of resolution. This has led many researchers to consider places as small as single addresses, group of addresses, face blocks or street blocks. Both cross-sectional and longitudinal studies of the spatial distribution of crime have consistently found crime is strongly concentrated at a small group of ‘micro’ places. Recent longitudinal studies have also revealed crime concentration across micro places is relatively stable over time. A major question that has not been answered in prior research is the degree of block to block variability at this local ‘micro’ level for all crime. To answer this question, we examine both temporal and spatial variation in crime across street blocks in the city of Seattle Washington. This is accomplished by applying trajectory analysis to establish groups of places that follow similar crime trajectories over 16 years. Then, using quantitative spatial statistics, we establish whether streets having the same temporal trajectory are collocated spatially or whether there is street to street variation in the temporal patterns of crime. In a surprising number of cases we find that individual street segments have trajectories which are unrelated to their immediately adjacent streets. This finding of heterogeneity suggests it may be particularly important to examine crime trends at very local geographic levels. At a policy level, our research reinforces the importance of initiatives like ‘hot spots policing’ which address specific streets within relatively small areas.

A Life-Course Theory and Long-Term Project on Trajectories of Crime

A Life-Course Theory and Long-Term Project on Trajectories of Crime

Disadvantage, disorder and diversity

Disadvantage, disorder and diversity

Patterns of Crime and Drug Use Trajectories in Relation to Treatment Initiation and 5-Year Outcomes: An Application of Growth Mixture Modeling Across Three Datasets.

Drug abusers vary considerably in their drug use and criminal behavior over time, and these trajectories are likely to influence drug treatment participation and treatment outcomes. Drawing on longitudinal natural history data from three samples of adult male drug users, we identify four groups with distinctive drug use and crime trajectories over the 5 years prior to their first treatment episode. The groups' characteristics of initial treatment are compared. The trajectory groups are then included in Poisson growth curve models to predict drug use, incarceration, and employment over the 5 years following first treatment. Findings indicate that posttreatment drug use decreased and posttreatment employment increased. There was little change in posttreatment incarceration. Posttreatment trajectories for drug use, incarceration, and employment were significantly different across the four trajectory groups.

David P. Farrington and Brandon C. Welsh, Saving Children from a Life of Crime: Early Risk Factors and Effective Interventions

Older readers may remember a famous Quaker State Car Oil Advertisement that ended with the slogan ‘You can pay me now, or you can pay me later.’ There is perhaps no better phrase to summarize the topic under investigation by Farrington and Welsh—saving children from a life of crime. Investing in children now will pay dividends in the future. Fortunately for us, these two prominent criminologists have written a book on one of social science’s most important matters, and one that embodies the essence of good science: the development and articulation of good ideas, a solid discussion of theory and research, and appropriate policy proscriptions that are accessible and relevant to academics, policy-makers, and lay persons alike. Saving Children From a Life of Crime tackles one of criminology’s most important, yet controversial issues: how do we prevent crime early enough in life and how do we do so by minimizing and/or introducing any undue harm? By reviewing the knowledge base with respect to early risk factors for offending (which include impulsivity, criminal parents, low attainment, parental conflict, and residence in a high-crime neighborhood) as well as the evidence regarding the effectiveness of early crime prevention programs designed to thwart a trajectory of crime over the life course (which include preschool intellectual enrichment, child skills/parent management training, and home visitation programs), Farrington and Welsh lay the groundwork for a prevention strategy that can be used as a model to guide public policy efforts for early childhood crime prevention, one that is relevant, well-reasoned, and informed by objective and oftentimes experimental, evidence-based research. In any era where dealing with the crime problem follows a tough-on-crime approach, Farrington and Welsh remind readers that being smart about crime is more important and any decision about crime prevention should be made with the knowledge base of what works, and clearly several things do. The need for early prevention is clear, and the recognition that it is never too early to prevent crime could not be clearer, especially given the costs associated with early

Shared Beginnings, Divergent Lives: Delinquent Boys to Age 70

This text analyses newly collected data on crime and social development up to age 70 for 500 men who were remanded to reform school in the 1940s. Born in Boston in the late 1920s and early 1930s, these men were the subjects of the classic study "Unraveling Juvenile Delinquency" by Sheldon and Eleanor Glueck (1950). Updating their lives at the close of the twentieth century, and connecting their adult experience to childhood, this book is arguably the longest longitudinal study of age, crime and the life course to date. John Laub and Robert Sampson's long-term data, combined with in-depth interviews, defy the conventional wisdom that links individual traits such as poor verbal skills, limited self-control and difficult temperament to long-term trajectories of offending. The authors reject the idea of categorizing offenders to reveal etiologies of offending - rather, they connect variability in behaviour to social context. They find that men who desisted from crime were rooted in structural routines and had strong social ties to family and community. By uniting life-history narratives with rigorous data analysis, the authors shed new light on long-term trajectories of crime and current policies of crime control.

Continuity and Changes in the Developmental Trajectories of Criminal Career: Examining the Roles of Timing of First Arrest and High School Graduation

Early onset of criminal career is one of the most robust predictors of persistence in offending. However, many antisocial children do not become chronic adult offenders. Using longitudinal data of young male offenders in the California Youth Authority, we examined trajectories of criminal behavior from childhood to adulthood. We particularly focused on the main and interaction effects of age at their first arrest and completion of high school education. First, we found that, on average, cumulative crime trajectory was curvilinear, with a subtle increase in childhood followed by a rapid increase in late adolescence and a slow down in adulthood. Second, earlier starters had a steeper cumulative growth in criminal behavior over time. Third, finishing high school served as a potential turning point in offenders’ lives, particularly for later starters. The results highlight that continuity and desistance in crime can be partially understood by timing of significant events and heterogeneity in response to turning points.

A Life-Course View of the Development of Crime

In this article, the authors present a life-course perspective on crime and a critique of the developmental criminology paradigm. Their fundamental argument is that persistent offending and desistance—or trajectories of crime—can be meaningfully understood within the same theoretical framework, namely, a revised agegraded theory of informal social control. The authors examine three major issues. First, they analyze data that undermine the idea that developmentally distinct groups of offenders can be explained by unique causal processes. Second, they revisit the concept of turning points from a time-varying view of key life events. Third, they stress the overlooked importance of human agency in the development of crime. The authors' life-course theory envisions development as the constant interaction between individuals and their environment, coupled with random developmental noise and a purposeful human agency that they distinguish from rational choice. Contrary to influential developmental theories in criminology, the authors thus conceptualize crime as an emergent process reducible neither to the individual nor the environment.

TRAJECTORIES OF CRIME AT PLACES: A LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF STREET SEGMENTS IN THE CITY OF SEATTLE*

Studies of crime at micro places have generally relied on cross‐sectional data and reported the distributions of crime statistics over short periods of time. In this paper we use official crime data to examine the distribution of crime at street segments in Seattle, Washington, over a 14‐year period. We go beyond prior research in two ways. First, we view crime trends at places over a much longer period than other studies that have examined micro places. Second, we use group‐based trajectory analysis to uncover distinctive developmental trends in our data. Our findings support the view that micro places generally have stable concentrations of crime events over time. However, we also find that a relatively small proportion of places belong to groups with steeply rising or declining crime trajectories and that these places are primarily responsible for overall city trends in crime. These findings are particularly important given the more general decline in crime rates observed in Seattle and many other American cities in the 1990s. Our study suggests that the crime drop can be understood not as a general process that occurred across the city landscape but one that was generated in a relatively small group of micro places with strong declining crime trajectories over time.