In view of the following problems existed in the data-driven resistance spot welding (RSW) quality judgment methods: relying on expert experience, resulting in a high misjudgment rate; affected by the initial value, it is easy to fall into the local extreme point; multiple parameters needed to be modulated to increase the training time of the model. Therefore, this paper proposed a RSW quality judgment method based on revised quantum genetic algorithm (RQGA) and hidden markov model (HMM). Which used quantum rotation gate to replace the evolution process of genetic algorithm (GA), reducing the number of parameters that needed to be modulated in the model, and optimizing the initial model of HMM by RQGA to avoid falling into local extreme point. At the same time, combining expert experience with HMM to make quality judgment to ensure the accuracy of judgment.Firstly, by RSW test to obtain the main influencing factors of quality, and combining with expert experience to realize the preliminary judgment of it, on this basis, HMM was established. Next, to address the susceptibility of HMM to initial model, quantum genetic algorithm (QGA) was utilized to search for the optimal initial model. Moreover, in view of the limitations of QGA (“coding length disaster” and fixed rotation angle), a corresponding improvement was also presented. At last, the established model was applied to the RSW process of stainless steel sheets railway carriage roof. Compared with the other five models, it took the least time to complete parameter training of HMM in four quality states, less than 15s; when judging the quality, its log-likelihood probability value was −47.8418, which was close to the maximum value of this state; during the classification test, the average classification accuracy of the four quality states were 90.8 %, 92.2 %, 90.8 % and 92.0 %, respectively, which was higher than the other five models. Consequently, the model established in this paper was effective.