Traditional Threats Research Articles

The SSA-BP-based potential threat prediction for aerial target considering commander emotion

The target's threat prediction is an essential procedure for the situation analysis in an aerial defense system. However, the traditional threat prediction methods mostly ignore the effect of commander's emotion. They only predict a target's present threat from the target's features itself, which leads to their poor ability in a complex situation. To aerial targets, this paper proposes a method for its potential threat prediction considering commander emotion (PTP-CE) that uses the Bi-directional LSTM (BiLSTM) network and the backpropagation neural network (BP) optimized by the sparrow search algorithm (SSA). Furthermore, we use the BiLSTM to predict the target's future state from real-time series data, and then adopt the SSA-BP to combine the target's state with the commander's emotion to establish a threat prediction model. Therefore, the target's potential threat level can be obtained by this threat prediction model from the predicted future state and the recognized emotion. The experimental results show that the PTP-CE is efficient for aerial target's state prediction and threat prediction, regardless of commander's emotional effect.

How Emotional Shifts Effect Youth Perceptions of Opioid Risk and Efficacy: Testing a Know the Truth Campaign Narrative

ABSTRACT Integrating the extended parallel process model (EPPM) and the emotional flow hypothesis, we tested the persuasive effect of emotional shifts during exposure to a Know the Truth anti-opioid campaign narrative in a sample of middle-school students (n = 480). Testing two emotional flow sequences (threat to efficacy and efficacy to threat) of the Know the Truth narrative against a static (threat-only) emotional condition, we found that youth exposed to any emotional flow narrative reported higher levels of hope and lower levels of fear than those exposed to a threat-only narrative. We also found that a threat to efficacy narrative elicited higher levels of self-efficacy than an efficacy to threat emotional flow condition, suggesting that the emotional sequence influences self-efficacy, a well-established predictor of health behavior change. We conclude that the traditional threat to efficacy emotional flow may be superior to its inverse (efficacy to threat) when communicating with young people about opioid addiction. Implications for message design are discussed.

Ontological (In)visibility and Cyber Conflict: The Problem of Sight and Vision in Establishing Threat

This paper builds on the work of scholars working on ontological security, cyber security, and computer science to understand the problem of threat assessment and vision before, during, and after cyber-attacks. The previous use of ontological security theory (OST) has been limited because it has relied upon an overly simplistic vision of threat assessment at the international, state, and individual level. While previous scholars have examined the background, latent, or assumed visions of security threats as interpreted by agents and how their conditions do or do not effectively capture the anxieties of populations and practitioners this piece seeks to put these issues in conversation. In conceiving of ‘the state’ and ‘threat’ this piece examines the notion of vision, because as states conceive of threats in terms of terrorism (overt and theatrical) and cyber (covert and private) a mismatch of responses is noted. This piece reads the current cyber security landscape (2009-2019) in the United States through a lens of repeated and rambunctious cyber-threats and attacks and a largely passive response by the US citizenry through OST alongside: (1) the literature on computer science dealing with the concept of ontology, (2) the traditional threat framework found in the terrorism literature around response to threat with a comparison to the cyber-conflict literature, an (3) examination of the interplay between the public and government around the visibility and salience of cyberthreats.

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES AND THEIR EFFECTS IN 21st CENTURY A CASE STUDY OF USA

Global environmental challenges in 21st century are more threatening than traditional national security threats on the world because it has had effects globally and victims are completely in a state of natural disaster. The only things which can be secured from these threats are the precautionary measures before these threats occur. The excessive number of natural disaster particularly in past ten year horrified the world and transfers their attention more towards the environmental changes. The geographical location of American continent and growing military activities and WMDs testing of USA needed to focus on the rapid environmental changes around the world especially after the 20th century, because these changes affected the entire world in the shape of excessive rains, tornados and cyclones. The paper analyzes the various challenges of environment for North America particularly for United States by its own actions and in general to the world faces today, as well as measures that have been taken by entire world and United States and their future impact.

Intolerance of uncertainty, and not social anxiety, is associated with compromised extinction of social threat

Extinction-resistant threat is regarded as a central hallmark of pathological anxiety. However, it remains relatively under-studied in social anxiety. Here we sought to determine whether self-reported trait social anxiety is associated with compromised threat extinction learning and retention. We tested this hypothesis within two separate, socially relevant conditioning studies. In the first experiment, a Selective Extinction Through Cognitive Evaluation (SECE) paradigm was used, which included a cognitive component during the extinction phase, while experiment 2 used a traditional threat extinction paradigm. Skin conductance responses and subjective ratings of anxiety (experiment 1 and 2) and expectancy (experiment 2) were collected across both experiments. The findings of both studies demonstrated no effect of social anxiety on extinction learning or retention. Instead, results from experiment 1 indicated that individual differences in Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU) were associated with the ability to use contextual cues to decrease a conditioned response during SECE. However, during extinction retention, high IU predicted greater generalisation across context cues. Findings of experiment 2 revealed that higher IU was associated with impaired extinction learning and retention. The results from both studies suggest that compromised threat extinction is likely to be a characteristic of high levels of IU and not social anxiety.

Maritime strategy of Pakistan: Development and future prospects

The Indian Ocean accounts half of the world's container shipments, two-thirds of oil product shipments and a third of bulk cargo. Pakistan as a significant regional power laying claims to a higher role in regional trade. But it demands effective naval forces capable of resisting both traditional (possible blockade of Pakistan's seaports if an armed conflict with India takes place) and non-traditional threats (piracy in the Strait of Hormuz). The article examines the evolution of Pakistan's naval strategy from the moment of gaining independence to the present day. The article provides a brief historical overview of the development of the country's naval strategy, analyzes the place of the Pakistani Navy in the armed forces, their role in the implementation of the China-Pakistan economic corridor (CPEC), considers Pakistan's initiatives in the field of regional maritime security, as well as the processes of modernizing the fleet. The author believes that the role of the Navy in Pakistan's grand strategy will only increase due to both economic and regional security factors. The author claims that the role of the maritime strategy and the Pakistani Navy in the country's foreign policy will increase, which is explained by the need to ensure maritime security to implement the key economic project of the CPEC, as well to build a regional security system in the Indian Ocean resistant to all types of threats. The author invokes historical methods to analyze the evolution of Pakistani maritime strategy and hermeneutics to consider the current development of the strategy and its prospects.

Operational and Intelligence Activities of the Law Enforcement Agencies in the System of Ensuring National Security

The transition to the postmodern stage of development of Russian society, by the subsequent change of the system of civilizational values, required the scientific development of a new attitude to security as a basic human need with regard to changing the nature of traditional threats and interests and the emergence of completely new ones. The process of globalization being developed in the information age weakens traditional state institutions and requires a new look at national security not only as a category of foreign policy and military matters but also as an internal problem solved through operational and intelligence activities. The purpose of the study was to identify the current problems in the theory of national security by means of an analysis of scientific studies of the phenomenon of security in Russia; to consider security as a function and feature of the social system; to consider the Operational and intelligence activities of the law enforcement agencies as a mean for ensuring national security; to identify the conditions and factors of operational and intelligence activities that negatively affect the effectiveness of ensuring national security. In the course of the research, using computer indexing, about 1300 scientific, educational and methodological sources on national security and internal affairs issues have been processed and analyzed in the semantic, philosophical and legal aspects. The study examines modern theoretical and practical problems of ensuring national security as part of operational and intelligence activities of the law enforcement agencies. Operational and intelligence activities is considered in the national security system as a means of its information support, as well as as a tool for combating criminal, military and other threats. For the first time, considered are the conditions and factors of the operational and intelligence activities that negatively affect the effectiveness of ensuring national security.

Global child health

Disparities across the world are widening day by day. Children are the most vulnerable population impacted by the disparities. As governments and civil societies are successfully tackling traditional threats to children such as malnutrition, infectious diseases, and inadequate neonatal care, newer threats such as climate change, child trafficking, and childhood obesity are emerging. Threats like the COVID-19 pandemic, although not directly impacting children's health, have caused a significant effect on the delivery of child health services. The present article examines the current and future threats faced by children worldwide and offers solutions to mitigate those threats.

Revolution in Military Affairs: Strategi Menghadapi Strategic Disadvantage Singapura

The Singapore government since 2000 has stated their goals to have a strong and capable Singapore Armed Forces (SAF). The urgency of having a strong and capable SAF cannot be separated from the multidimensional threats that Singapore has to deal with. China's growing military capability coupled with increased aggressiveness in the South China Sea and relations with two conflicting neighbors are examples of traditional threats facing Singapore. Non-traditional threats, especially terrorism, also haunt Singapore. This article argues that the Revolution in Military Affairs implemented by Singapore is the mitigation of such strategic disadvantage. Through the implementation of the Revolution in Military Affairs which was marked by the acquisition of advanced weaponry technology and followed by changes in military doctrine and organizational adaptation, the SAF has already been transformed into a powerful military in the region.

Signifikansi Keamanan Maritim Di ASEAN

In order to securitizing maritime issues in the Southeast Asian region, ASEAN plays a significant role as a regional organization through three aspects as an instrument, arena and independent actors. Each aspect shows the seriousness of ASEAN in facing traditional and non-traditional maritime security threats. ASEAN created several mechanisms to maintain maritime security in the Southeast Asian region. However, the implementation of regional maritime law enforcement policies is an obstacle for ASEAN, including the differing views of some ASEAN member countries in addressing traditional and non-traditional maritime security threats. Moreover, with the principle of non-intervention of ASEAN on member countries, conditions have increasingly complex in ASEAN's efforts to strategically empowering maritime security of the Southeast Asian region.

Potential and Threat Analysis Towards Cybersecurity in South East Asia

<p><em>Cybersecurity is a very strategic issue in maintaining a state’s stability, particularly in this modern era. The threats that can attack a state can no longer be physical or traditional threats but also cyber threat. In dealing with cases occurring related to the issue, Singapore initiated the establishment of ASEAN-Singapore Cybersecurity Centre of Excellence (ASCCE) to ascertain cybersecurity stability in ASEAN region. However, it of course results in various speculations and potencies likely occurring when cybersecurity is concentrated and controlled on one country only. Therefore, this journal analyzed ASCCE-related potency and threat likely occurring in ASEAN using Speech Act, Securitization, Wideners, International Cooperation, and Information Technology Management theories. In addition, the author also discussed the effectiveness of ASCCE performance in coping with cybercrimes and cyberthreats in ASEAN and their effect on ASEAN states.</em></p>

The security perception and security policy of Austria, 1989–2017

ABSTRACT Austria's security architecture has changed significantly following the end of the Cold War. The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the country's accession to the EU in 1995, and the Yugoslav Wars in the 1990s led to a re-calibration of the Austrian understanding of foreign and security policy. As a result, Austria became more engaged in international peace-keeping operations and was interacting more with international organisations (EU, NATO-PfP). Austria became more and more engaged with EU CSDP, which de-facto undermined the country's neutrality, even if the neutrality issue keeps coming up at the level of political discourses. The public assessment of perceived threats is shifted from more traditional threat categories (e.g. crime) towards new security challenges (e.g. immigration), but in general, Austrians feel extraordinarily safe in comparison with other European nations.

Dimensiones tradicionales y emergentes de la seguridad fronteriza del extremo norte de Chile

Este artículo indaga en los supuestos por los cuales es construida la agenda de seguridad fronteriza en el extremo norte de Chile y en algunas de sus consecuencias previsibles. Estos supuestos se centran en la vigencia de amenazas tradicionales y en su superposición con elementos de seguridad renovada, catalogados como amenazas transnacionales. Con base a una serie de entrevistas y discusiones con académicos y tomadores de decisiones, junto al análisis de incidentes fronterizos entre Chile y Bolivia, se determina que prevalecen interpretaciones que consideran las relaciones fronterizas como un campo propio de la seguridad, aunque de manera incipiente se comienzan a considerar discursos referidos a dinámicas cooperativas transfronterizas.

Структура автоматизованої системи управління інформаційною стійкістю наземної оглядової радіолокаційної станції в умовах активних завад

Надано інформаційний опис структури системи управління для пошуку і реалізації на різних рівнях та етапах управління закону управління інформаційною стійкістю режимів зондування РЛС при загрозах і впливах активних завад прикриття і самоприкриття, який узагальнює результати комплексного аналізу впливу на її побудову ряду системо утворюючих чинників. При цьому реалізується повна функція ситуаційного управління із застосуванням різних форм управління для когнітивного пошуку обґрунтованого і оперативного управлінського рішення з урахуванням поставлених цілей і ресурсних обмежень. Вона передбачає цілеспрямоване проведення на вході і виході режимів зондування кожної проблемної області аналіз і прогноз розвитку станів і динамік складових і в цілому конфліктної ситуації, а також умов прийняття рішень. Розглянута багатоконтурна структура управління дозволяє раціонально використовувати ресурсні можливості РЛС щодо забезпечення завадозахищеності її режимів зондування проблемних областей зони огляду і компонент їх систем управління з урахуванням традиційних і нових інформаційних загроз стратегії РЕП.

Towards a networked strategy: framework for maritime South Asia

ABSTRACT This article revisits the widely cited SAGAR speech by the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, delivered on 12 March 2015, at Port Louis, Mauritius. It takes the speech as a foundation to revisit the meaning of maritime South Asia, bringing to fore a ‘networked identity’ of the Ocean. This approach, while incorporating a dimension of resilience, also offers a conceptual/policy window to deal with complex traditional and non-traditional threats emanating from maritime space. Concepts from network literature, such as connections, relationality and communication are employed to invoke networked imageries of the Ocean at a metaphorical, conceptual and praxeological level. In arguing for international/interregional maritime cooperation, SDG-14 is presented as an essential background condition for effective translation of SAGAR speech into this novel framework, which helps in raising critical questions related to maritime security and development.

Understanding and features of the essence of collective security in relation to modern threats of the 21st century

In the article the peculiarities of collective security in Europe at the present stage of international relations are presented. It is noted that collective security is to ensure security for all participants of international relations that have merged into a single system in order to face the challenges and threats. The author also reveals the relationship between the system of collective security and modern security threats and the influence of such threats on the formation of a system and its significant changes.
 The article noted that the modern threats to our collective security constitute a collective term that includes both traditional threats and new challenges, which arose under the influence of the development of science and technology, and globalization. Overall, the author concluded that the threat is a set of factors and conditions, which in future can potentially be a danger to the state.
 The article pointed out that the European security environment has changed significantly under the influence of time, because, despite the fact that today a large-scale aggression against any European state impossible, all the same the main source of danger for citizens is the threats and challenges of the new type.
 Described the special role of trust in the system of collective security and stated that, taking into account the features of international law and the lack of stringent mechanisms of control, that trust is an important basis of interaction between States in international relations, and the system of collective security.
 The author also emphasized the necessity of making significant changes in the modern collective security system to improve its effectiveness and increase resistance to threats. Noted the need to "depoliticize" the system of collective security, that is, when forming the strategy of the conduct of all parties should discard the political aspirations and other interests of a participant in favor of the interests of the region. Only in the complete absence based on collective security from political interests of each individual state that is included in this system, it is possible to speak about its effectiveness. The article also emphasizes the need to revise the cooperation of systems of collective security among themselves to enhance their effectiveness and to avoid duplication of authority.

On Security Mechanism in China and US: Comparison and Practices

It is understood to all national states that national security system serves as an essential role in security mechanism. Both United State and China have confronted security challenges from home and abroad. As for the US, since the founding of the country and especially after US has engaged in global affairs, with the shift of national security and security realities, the security constitutional system has undergone several major adjustments. The National Security Act, which was passed by congress in 1947, has created a new organ named National Security Council to integrate the Defense and Intelligence Agencies and build a new security constitution system. After the 9/11 incident, the US congress passed the PATRIOT Act, which has greatly expanded the security powers of the President. With regards to China, China has a long history of safeguarding its territorial integrity, so it is obvious that China focuses more on traditional threats since 1949. After its reform and opening-up policy, the international environment has become more complex and the protection of non-traditional security has become more prominent. Since China has entered a new era in 21st century, various laws and regulations targeting the traditional and non-traditional threat has been enacted. From a historic perspective and comparative approach, this paper finds that China is learning the practices and legislation experiences from countries like United states to actively build a legal system for national security and form a more efficient and integrated security mechanism. in addition, a security constitutional system with the core of overall national security concept is beginning to take shape. China is building a comprehensive security system to address both traditional and non-traditional national threats.

Speech over! Securitization in acts: National economic security

In order to ensure the practicalities of the securitization from its ‘speech to acts’ within new sectors and new security, the author feels motivated to pose the following question: how should national economic security respond to the imminent new national threat by considering the premise and the impact of national stability? The author holds the view that the origin of broadening the security derives its source form its continuous studies besides its awareness that a state's threat does not always come necessary from outside but is likely to happen within the state and cause damage on the same scale as traditional threats. Evidence is provided through various examples while the analysis is based on theories related to critical security studies and securitization as speech and even more in acts by widening and deepening security through economic security as a new threat in a new sector.

Traditional Ecological Knowledge of Shifting Agriculture of Bulang People in Yunnan, China

Land-use and land-cover changes directly impact biological diversity, and may cause land degradation by altering ecosystem services and livelihood support systems, thereby disrupting the socio-cultural practices and institutions associated with managing those biophysical systems. The most important is the gradual disappearance of human’s traditional ecological knowledge and cultural diversity. Xishuangbanna is one of regions that have the richest biodiversity and cultural diversity in the world. In recent years, academic scholars, government departments at different levels and media have increasingly paid close attention on the relationship between rubber cultivation and biodiversity in Xishuangbanna. However, such attention on the relationship between rubber plantation and cultural diversity is few. Conclusively, social and cultural practice on natural resource management carried out by local people and relevant institutions are greatly changing in the context of implementing rubber plantation. During this process, traditional ecological knowledge is also experiencing changes. The paper will elaborate impacts from the rubber plantation on Bulang society in Xishuangbanna, explore changes on local subsistence, social and cultural practice and relevant institutions, and further analyze relationships between the rubber plantation, cultural diversity and traditional ecological knowledge, and threats and challenges faced by Bulang people. Through the case study of Bulang people, we see that the traditional ecological knowledge not only includes natural resource management and genetic resource protection, but also recognition of ethnical identities and heritage of biological and cultural diversity.

Evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Forecasts for Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall of 2014 Using Ground Based Observations

The present study focuses on evaluating the ability of short-range rainfall forecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model against observed gridded rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) available over the Indian landmass during Indian summer monsoon (ISM) viz. June to September for the year 2014. The spatial distribution of the WRF predicted rainfall matches well with the IMD observed rainfall and indicates systematic rainfall biases over the Indian landmass. In general, precipitation is underestimated in dry, low elevation areas and overestimated in wet, high elevation areas by the WRF model. Based on rainfall verification scores, it was found that low and moderate rainfall was forecasted reasonably well by the WRF model compared to heavy rainfall. Moreover, extremal dependency score (EDS) has been used to verify heavy rainfall forecasts, as the traditional threat scores saturates towards high rainfall thresholds. Further, the separate analysis was carried out over five different homogeneous rainfall zones of India. Results show that the WRF model was able to predict rainfall reasonably well with higher correlation coefficient, lower bias and root mean square deviation in most of the zones. Moreover, the WRF rainfall forecasts at high spatial resolution (5 km) were also examined over Karnataka, India using dense rain gauge network.