Traditional Prediction Methods Research Articles

Study on the remaining useful life prediction method of hydraulic slide valve based on degradation-competition failure sharing random effect identification

Purpose Hydraulic slide valve failure often results from competing failure modes, termed competitive failure. To enhance prediction accuracy for hydraulic slide valve remaining useful life, the authors propose a method incorporating competitive failure and Monte Carlo simulation. This method allows for more accurate prediction of hydraulic slide valve remaining useful life. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, the competitive failure mode of the hydraulic slide valve is analyzed by studying the two failure modes of the hydraulic slide valve, and the prediction of the remaining useful life of the hydraulic slide valve is studied by using the sample set generated by Monte Carlo simulation and the competitive failure joint model. Findings The results show that the proposed prediction method based on competitive failure and Monte Carlo simulation is more accurate than the traditional Bayesian joint model prediction method when dealing with the failure mode competition phenomenon of hydraulic slide valve. Originality/value In this paper, the remaining useful life prediction of hydraulic slide valve with competitive failure characteristics is studied, which provides a new idea for the remaining useful life prediction method. Peer review The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/ILT-11-2023-0361/

Verification of Long‐Term Ensemble Evapotranspiration Hindcast Using a Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Parameter Perturbation Ensemble Prediction Method on the Tibetan Plateau

AbstractIn this research, a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to parameters (CNOP‐P) method is employed to propose an ensemble prediction method titled as the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to parameters ensemble prediction (CNOP‐PEP) method. Within the CNOP‐PEP method, all ensemble members are generated by the CNOP‐P method. To explore the operability and validity of the CNOP‐PEP method, long‐term evapotranspiration (ET) hindcast skill is evaluated at 13 sites on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the period of 2001–2018 with a land surface model. Two traditional ensemble prediction methods (the stochastically perturbed parameters (SPP) method and the one‐at‐a‐time (OAT) method) are also applied to assess the ET hindcast skills. The numerical results indicate that the CNOP‐PEP method shows the best hindcast skill for estimated ET at 13 stations on the TP among the three methods (CNOP‐PEP, OAT, and SPP methods) during the period of 2001–2018. This suggests that the CNOP‐PEP method is helpful and effective for long‐term and interannual hydrological predictions, such as long‐term and interannual ET predictions. The numerical results also indicate that ensemble members with certain special properties of fast‐growing types should be selected to implement ensemble prediction compared to these ordinary and traditional samples. The CNOP‐PEP method could supply special samples to improve the ensemble prediction and hindcast skill of hydrological cycle.

Machine learning for clinical outcome prediction in cerebrovascular and endovascular neurosurgery: systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundMachine learning (ML) may be superior to traditional methods for clinical outcome prediction. We sought to systematically review the literature on ML for clinical outcome prediction in cerebrovascular and endovascular...

Enhancing Soil Moisture Forecasting Accuracy with REDF-LSTM: Integrating Residual En-Decoding and Feature Attention Mechanisms

This study introduces an innovative deep learning model, Residual-EnDecode-Feedforward Attention Mechanism-Long Short-Term Memory (REDF-LSTM), designed to overcome the high uncertainty challenges faced by traditional soil moisture prediction methods. The REDF-LSTM model, by integrating a residual learning encoder–decoder LSTM layer, enhanced LSTM layers, and feedforward attention, not only captures the deep features of time series data but also optimizes the model’s ability to identify key influencing factors, including land surface features, atmospheric conditions, and other static environmental variables. Unlike existing methods, the innovation of this model lies in its first-time combination of the residual learning encoder–decoder and feedforward attention mechanisms in the soil moisture prediction field. It delves into the complex patterns of time series through the encoder–decoder structure and accurately locates key influencing factors through the feedforward attention mechanism, significantly improving predictive performance. The choice to combine the feedforward attention mechanism and encoder–decoder with the LSTM model is to fully leverage their advantages in processing complex data sequences and enhancing the model’s focus on important features, aiming for more accurate soil moisture prediction. After comparison with current advanced models such as EDLSTM, FAMLSTM, and GANBiLSTM, our REDF-LSTM demonstrated the best performance. Compared to traditional LSTM models, it achieved an average improvement of 13.07% in R2, 20.98% in RMSE, 24.86% in BIAS, and 11.1% in KGE key performance indicators, fully proving its superior predictive capability and potential application value in precision agriculture and ecosystem management.

Prediction Technology of a Reservoir Development Model While Drilling Based on Machine Learning and Its Application

In order to further understand the complex spatial distribution caused by the extremely strong heterogeneity of buried hill reservoirs, this paper proposes a new method for predicting the development pattern of buried hill reservoirs based on the traditional pre-drilling prediction and post-drilling evaluation methods that mainly rely on seismic, logging, and core data, which are difficult to meet the timeliness and accuracy of drilling operations. Firstly, the box method and normalization formula are used to process and normalize the abnormal data of element logging and engineering logging, and then the stepwise regression analysis method is used to optimize the sensitive parameters of element logging and engineering logging. The Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) algorithm, deep neural network (DNN), and support vector machine (SVM) are used to establish a new method for predicting the development pattern of buried hill reservoirs. Lastly, a comprehensive evaluation index F1 score for the model is established to evaluate the prediction model for the development pattern of buried hill reservoirs. The F1 score value obtained from this model’s comprehensive evaluation index indicates that the LightGBM model achieves the highest accuracy, with 96.7% accuracy in identifying weathered zones and 95.8% accuracy in identifying interior zones. The practical application demonstrates that this method can rapidly and accurately predict the development mode of buried hill reservoirs while providing a new approach for efficient on-site exploration and decision-making in oil and gas field developments. Consequently, it effectively promotes exploration activities as well as enhances the overall process of oil and gas reservoir exploration.

A Novel Improved Variational Mode Decomposition-Temporal Convolutional Network-Gated Recurrent Unit with Multi-Head Attention Mechanism for Enhanced Photovoltaic Power Forecasting

Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting plays a crucial role in optimizing renewable energy integration into the grid, necessitating accurate predictions to mitigate the inherent variability of solar energy generation. We propose a novel forecasting model that combines improved variational mode decomposition (IVMD) with the temporal convolutional network-gated recurrent unit (TCN-GRU) architecture, enriched with a multi-head attention mechanism. By focusing on four key environmental factors influencing PV output, the proposed IVMD-TCN-GRU framework targets a significant research gap in renewable energy forecasting methodologies. Initially, leveraging the sparrow search algorithm (SSA), we optimize the parameters of VMD, including the mode component K-value and penalty factor, based on the minimum envelope entropy principle. The optimized VMD then decomposes PV power, while the TCN-GRU model harnesses TCN’s proficiency in learning local temporal features and GRU’s capability in rapidly modeling sequence data, while leveraging multi-head attention to better utilize the global correlation information within sequence data. Through this design, the model adeptly captures the correlations within time series data, demonstrating superior performance in prediction tasks. Subsequently, the SSA is employed to optimize GRU parameters, and the decomposed PV power mode components and environmental feature attributes are inputted into the TCN-GRU neural network. This facilitates dynamic temporal modeling of multivariate feature sequences. Finally, the predicted values of each component are summed to realize PV power forecasting. Validation using real data from a PV station corroborates that the novel model demonstrates a substantial reduction in RMSE and MAE of up to 55.1% and 54.5%, respectively, particularly evident in instances of pronounced photovoltaic power fluctuations during inclement weather conditions. The proposed method exhibits marked improvements in accuracy compared to traditional PV power prediction methods, underscoring its significance in enhancing forecasting precision and ensuring the secure scheduling and stable operation of power systems.

A Modern Approach to HEAs: From Structure to Properties and Potential Applications

High-entropy alloys (HEAs) are advanced materials characterized by their unique and complex compositions. Characterized by a mixture of five or more elements in roughly equal atomic ratios, these alloys diverge from traditional alloy formulations that typically focus on one or two principal elements. This innovation has paved the way for subsequent studies that have expanded our understanding of HEAs, highlighting the role of high mixing entropy in stabilizing fewer phases than expected by traditional phase prediction methods like Gibbs’s rule. In this review article, we trace the evolution of HEAs, discussing their synthesis, stability, and the influence of crystallographic structures on their properties. Additionally, we highlight the strength–ductility trade-off in HEAs and explore strategies to overcome this challenge. Moreover, we examine the diverse applications of HEAs in extreme conditions and their promise for future advancements in materials science.

A milling tool wear predicting method with processing generalization capability

Tool Wear Prediction (TWP) is crucial to ensure machining quality. Compared to traditional prediction methods based on full-life or failure data, labelled data are limited or nonexistent when a new tool or similar tools have emerged. This makes it extremely challenging to predict wear using limited tracking data. This work aims to provide an innovative method for accurate long-term wear prediction of milling processes using limited monitoring data of individual tools. First, the Variational Modal Decomposition (VMD) and Pearson Correlation Threshold (PCT) are combined to adaptively filter the corresponding machining signals. Second, fitness analysis is performed by selecting features strongly related to tool degradation using feature monotonicity metrics, and sensitive information is fused based on Kernel Principal Components Analysis (KPCA). Third, a Stacked Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory with attention mechanism (AT-SBiLSTM) model is constructed to ascertain the connection between sensitive feature and the future wear state of the tool by multi-step advance rolling prediction. The results of the various milling experiment show that the proposed approach can provide accurate forecasts of tool wear using limited monitoring data.

Application of seismic attribute analysis techniques to multi-scale natural fractures description: a case study of the Longmaxi-Wufeng formation in H shale gas block, Yangtze plate, China

The H shale gas block in the Yangtze plate of China has undergone multistage tectonic evolution, which has resulted in the development of faults and natural fractures that are multistage, multi-scale, multi-type, and multi-strike in nature. To precisely characterize the natural fractures, this study used the seismic attribute analysis method to conduct a multi-scale prediction and natural fracture modelling. Initially, manual fault interpretation and the conventional seismic attributes including variance attribute, curvature and edge detection are used to interpret large-to medium-scale faults. Subsequently, the ant-tracking attribute based on the divided-frequency seismic cubes is used to predict and quantitatively interpret the mid- and small-scale fractures; The third step is to quantitatively divide the ant-tracking attribute value into multiple scales and convert them linearly into fracture intensity. The fourth step is to establish a multi-scale fracture model. This approach has established a comprehensive prediction workflow, progressing from large-scale to small-scale analysis, and shifting from qualitative to quantitative assessment. Compared with traditional fracture prediction and modeling methods, this method not only enhances the accuracy, but also satisfies the engineering requirements of multi-scale modeling. By applying the method in the H shale gas block, we gained a microscopic understanding of the fractures, which are predominantly NW, NE, and nearly NS trending, with a minimal occurrence of nearly EW trending faults/fractures. This method can be effectively applied to characterize multi-scale fractures in areas similar to the geological background of the H shale gas block.

Sparse graph cascade multi-kernel fusion contrastive learning for microbe–disease association prediction

Predicting microbe–disease associations (MDA) is crucial for proactively demystifying diseases causes and preventing them. Traditional prediction methods endure labor-intensive, time-consuming, and expensive. Therefore, this paper proposes CasMF-GCL, a novel Graph Contrastive Learning model based on sparse relation augmentation and a Cascaded Multi-kernel Fusion Network for MDA prediction. CasMF-GCL maximizes the use of sparse correlation information and eliminates data noise through an association augmentation technique based on low-rank sparse matrix completion. We employ diverse strategies to enhance the features of heterogeneous networks by exploring the similarity between microbes and diseases. Our model employs a new multi-layer graph convolutional network variant with a cascaded multi-kernel fusion mechanism, enabling weighted coding of local and global features for diseases and microbes. To further improve performance, we incorporate a self-supervised contrastive learning schema using multi-grain disease and microbe features and large-scale relation augmentations. Extensive experiments on two renowned datasets demonstrate that CasMF-GCL outperforms current state-of-the-art methods in seven indexes. The AUC values from 5-fold cross-validation are 0.997 and 0.989 for the two datasets, respectively. Ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of graph data augmentation, the power of the contrastive strategy, and the indispensability of the cascaded multi-kernel fusion network. Furthermore, case studies validate the prediction performance of CasMF-GCL.

Application of Grey Prediction Models for Efficient Traffic Flow Prediction

Traffic flow prediction is crucial in transportation management and optimizing control strategies and infrastructure planning. However, traditional prediction methods often need help handling traffic data's inherent uncertainty and complexity. This paper explores the application of Grey prediction models as a promising approach for efficient traffic flow prediction. Grey prediction models, rooted in Grey systems theory, offer a robust framework for modelling systems with incomplete and uncertain information. The paper provides a comprehensive overview of Grey prediction models, including the Grey Verhulst, Grey-Markov, and Grey differential equation models. It discusses the process of data collection, pre-processing, and model application in traffic flow prediction. Case studies and experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of Grey prediction models in accurately forecasting traffic flow patterns. Despite challenges such as data sparsity and model complexity, Grey prediction models offer significant advantages over traditional methods, including improved prediction accuracy and adaptability to dynamic traffic conditions. The paper concludes with recommendations for practitioners and researchers interested in leveraging Grey prediction models for efficient traffic management.

Enhancing pore pressure prediction accuracy: A knowledge-driven approach with temporal fusion transformer

Pore pressure plays a crucial role in various fields, including geology, petroleum engineering, hydrology, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). Traditional pore pressure prediction methods, which rely on physical models, often fail to meet the required accuracy standards due to their inflexibility and technical parameterization. Although machine learning methods have been increasingly used for pore pressure prediction, they struggle to integrate domain-specific knowledge and capture the inherent temporal dynamics of the data, resulting in suboptimal prediction accuracy. To address these limitations, this study introduces the Knowledge-Aware TFT model, which determines the key parameter attributes for pore pressure prediction by comprehensively analyzing well logging data, rock mechanics theory, and pore pressure evolution theory. Additionally, the model effectively captures the temporal dynamic characteristics of the data, thereby enhancing the accuracy of pore pressure prediction. To validate the model's accuracy, uncertainty theory is employed to evaluate the experimental results, providing a description of the uncertainty associated with pore pressure prediction and supporting credibility assessment. A case study involving three vertical wells in Block X, China, compares the Knowledge-Aware TFT model with SVM, XGBoost, MLP, and LSTM models, further confirming its superior prediction accuracy (R^2 = 0.997, RMSE = 0.135) and demonstrating its practicality in pore pressure prediction. In conclusion, the proposed pore pressure prediction model not only improves prediction accuracy but also achieves excellent results in practical applications, making it a viable alternative to traditional technologies.

A self-attention-LSTM method for dam deformation prediction based on CEEMDAN optimization

The structural deformation of a dam directly affects its lifespan and safety, making its accurate prediction crucial. Traditional prediction methods often overlook the nonlinearity and non-smoothness of deformation data. Moreover, the irregular intervals within the historical deformation data used for model training can reduce prediction accuracy. To address these issues, we propose a hybrid deep learning model that uses signal decomposition and reconstruction to enhance dam deformation prediction. This model employs a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network optimized using a complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN). The self-attention mechanism in the LSTM model effectively captures the temporal features of dam deformation, alleviating the difficulties generated by the irregular intervals within the historical data used in model training. Furthermore, considering the lag effect of influencing factors on dam deformation and the differences among various measurement points, we propose a CEEMDAN-based feature selection method. Using 13 years worth of data from the Shuibuya Dam, we evaluate the accuracy and effectiveness of the CEEMDAN-Self-attention-LSTM model using indicators, such as MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and R2, and compared it with existing models. The experimental results show that this model reduces prediction error by more than 53.62%.

Cloud computing-based framework for heart disease classification using quantum machine learning approach

Abstract Accurate early identification and treatment of cardiovascular diseases can prevent heart failure problems and reduce mortality rates. This study aims to use quantum learning to predict heart problems to increase the accuracy of traditional prediction and classification methods. Machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques need quantum learning to quickly and accurately analyze massive volumes of complex data. With quantum computing, the suggested DL and ML algorithms can change their predictions on the basis of changes in the dataset. This approach could help with the early and accurate detection of chronic diseases. The Cleveland heart disease dataset is undergoing preliminary processing to validate missing values to increase the precision rate and prevent incorrect forecasts. This study examined the feasibility of employing and deploying a quantum ML (QML) framework via cloud computing to categorize cardiac conditions. The research was divided into four sections. First, the principal component analysis was used to preprocess the Cleveland dataset, recursive feature elimination was used to select features, and min–max normalization was used to give the dataset a high-dimensional value. Second, we compared traditional classifiers, such as support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural network, with the quantum approach to verify the quantum approach’s efficiency. Third, we examined two unique QML classification methods: quantum neural networks (QNNs) and quantum SVM (QSVM). Fourth, bagging-QSVM was developed and deployed as an ensemble learning model. Experimental results using the QNN show an accuracy of 77%, a precision of 76%, a recall of 73%, and an F1 score of 75%. With an accuracy of 85%, a precision of 79%, a recall of 90%, and an F1-score of 84%, the QSVM method demonstrated a much better performance than the QNN. Particularly, the Bagging_QSVM model exhibited an outstanding performance, with a flawless score of 100% across all critical performance measures. The study shows that the bagging method for ensemble learning is a solid way of increasing the accuracy of quantum method predictions.

Machine Learning Techniques for Gender Recognition and Age Prediction Using Digital Images of Human Dentition

In today's digital age, the utilization of digital medical imagery is on the rise, since the increased computational power that enables the development of more advanced machine learning techniques. We have implemented a system capable of determining the gender and estimating the age of individuals based on digital images of their teeth. Teeth, being a robust and relatively unchanging part of the human body, serve as an ideal source for such analysis. By examining Orthopantomogram images, our system systematically extracts gender and age-related information. Developed using the Python programming language, our application is particularly valuable in forensic contexts, where traditional prediction methods can be time-consuming, often taking days. In contrast, our model delivers results in under a minute. We employed the Random Forest (RF) Classifier algorithm to deploy the prediction model, as it effectively addresses the overfitting issue associated with growing input sample sizes. With this approach, we have achieved an impressive accuracy rate of 94% in gender and age prediction.

Research on electric vehicle charging load prediction method based on spectral clustering and deep learning network

With the increasing prominence of environmental and energy issues, electric vehicles (EVs) as representatives of clean energy vehicles have experienced rapid development in recent years, and the charging load has also exhibited statistical characteristics. Accurate prediction of EV charging load is crucial to improve grid load dispatch and intelligent level. However, current research on EV charging load prediction still faces challenges such as data reliability, complexity and variability of charging behavior, uncertainty, and lack of standardization methods. Therefore, this paper proposes an electric vehicle charging load prediction method based on spectral clustering and deep learning network (SC-CNN-LSTM). Firstly, to address the insufficient amount of EV charging load data, this paper proposes to use Monte Carlo simulation to sample and simulate historical load data. Then, in order to identify the internal structure and patterns of charging load, the sampled and simulated dataset is clustered using spectral clustering, dividing the data into different clusters, where each cluster represents samples with similar charging load characteristics. Finally, based on the different sample features of each cluster, corresponding CNN-LSTM models are constructed and trained and predict using the respective data. By modifying the model parameters, the prediction accuracy of the model is improved. Through comparative experiments, the proposed method in this paper has significantly improved prediction accuracy compared to traditional prediction methods without clustering, thus validating the effectiveness and practicality of the method.

Evaluation of multimodal data-driven financial risk prediction methods for corporate green credit

With the rapid economic development and increasingly serious environmental problems, many regions have launched green credit policies. Green credit can reduce the loan interest rate of the environmental protection industry and lower the financing threshold. Traditional risk prediction methods cannot comprehensively evaluate the green credit risk of the enterprise based on the degree of green environmental protection and the industry environment in which the enterprise is located, resulting in the inconsistency between the credit financial risk prediction and the actual results, which increases the bank credit risk. In order to strengthen the management level of green credit and reduce the probability of non-performing loans, a scientific risk assessment method was constructed by using a combination of automatic encoding network and bidirectional long short-term memory neural network model to predict the financial risks of green credit, driven by multi-modal data. Through the study of multimodal data, this paper took green credit financial risk as the research object, aggregated the information of various enterprises to improve the bank’s capital utilization rate, and also promoted enterprises to take the initiative to transform into the direction of green environmental protection. Finally, the experiment proved that multimodal data fusion model was more superior than random forest in risk prediction, reducing the bank’s non-performing loan rate by 3.1% and improving the bank’s risk control level.

Self‐paced learning long short‐term memory based on intelligent optimization for robust wind power prediction

AbstractGiven the unpredictable and intermittent nature of wind energy, precise forecasting of wind power is crucial for ensuring the safe and stable operation of power systems. To reduce the influence of noise data on the robustness of wind power prediction, a wind power prediction method is proposed that leverages an enhanced multi‐objective sand cat swarm algorithm (MO‐SCSO) and a self‐paced long short‐term memory network (spLSTM). First, the actual wind power data is processed into time series as input and output. Then, the progressive advantage of self‐paced learning is used to effectively solve the instability caused by noisy data during long short‐term memory network (LSTM) training. Following this, the improved MO‐SCSO is employed to iteratively optimize the hyperparameters of spLSTM. Ultimately, a combined MO‐SCSO‐spLSTM model is constructed for wind power prediction. This model is validated with the data of onshore wind farms in Austria and offshore wind farms in Denmark. The experimental results show that compared with the traditional LSTM prediction method, the proposed method has better prediction accuracy and robustness. Specifically, in the onshore and offshore wind power prediction experiments, the proposed method reduces the minimum MAE by 5.44% and 4.96%, respectively, and reduces the MAE range by 4.45% and 17.21%, respectively, which could be conducive to the safe and stable operation of power system.

Training Demand Prediction Models by Decision Error for Two-Stage Lot-Sizing Problems

Demand prediction to support appropriate production decisions is being actively studied. Many prediction models are designed to minimize the prediction error, which is measured by determining the difference between the predicted and ground-truth demand. However, these models ignore the effect of the prediction error on downstream production decisions. This prompted our study, which focuses on demand prediction models for two-stage uncapacitated lot-sizing problems. In this paper, we present a prediction model that minimizes the decision error, which is measured by the optimization objective of lot-sizing problems. Our model mitigates the impact of prediction errors by leveraging the structure of the lot-sizing problems. To enhance the ability to accommodate imperfect data, such as data based on inaccurate information, we subsequently extend the prediction models to distributionally robust versions. We consider the worst-case formulation in the feature space to enhance the robustness of the model to data imperfection. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed prediction models are significantly superior to the traditional prediction methods when the model being trained is misspecified. In addition, the robust extension enables the models to train well on imperfect datasets while requiring less training data. <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">Note to Practitioners</i> —This study is motivated by the two-stage lot-sizing problem in manufacturing systems which involves the determination of the time at which (the setup decisions) to produce before the demand is revealed, and the production quantity decisions are adjusted during production processing. Predicting the demand properly while making the set-up decisions helps to decrease the production cost. This paper proposes a novel method that aims to minimize the total production cost to train demand prediction models. Practitioners can deploy the proposed method to train popular prediction models including linear prediction, decision tree, and neural network models. It is shown that the production cost associated with the decisions based on our models is lower than that associated with the traditional prediction models. Furthermore, our method enhances the ability of the model to handle model misspecification and imperfect data. Practitioners can apply our method to overcome the problems caused by imperfect data such as those containing contaminated and inaccurate measurements.

A multi-step attack path prediction method for oil & gas intelligence pipeline cyber physics system based on CPNE

Owing to the integration of the 5th Generation Mobile Communication Technology (5 G) and industrial internet construction, Oil & Gas intelligent pipeline network has witnessed accelerated construction and development. The Oil & Gas intelligent pipeline network proposed by China National Petroleum Corporation exhibits the advantages such as high integration, data unification, and intelligent decision-making, which helps to greatly reduce manual management costs, optimize risk decision-making by managers, and avoid risks such as human misuse. However, the highly integrated Cyber-physical system of the Internet and the Internet of Things faces various cyber security threats, and traditional intrusion detection systems exhibit drawbacks in the face of complex cyber-attack behaviors. In response to incomplete multi-step attack path prediction in traditional prediction methods, this paper proposes a multi-step attack path prediction method for Oil & Gas intelligence pipeline cyber physics system (CPS) based on Colored Petri nets and mixed strategy Nash equilibrium (CPNE). Taking into account the importance of assets and the dependency relationships between assets within the cyber-physical system of Oil & Gas intelligent pipeline network, CPNE constructs a node dependency model for the cyber-physical system of Oil & Gas intelligent pipeline network, simulates multi-step attack and defense games, calculates the probability of node failure triggering and transfer using mixed strategy Nash equilibrium, and extracts the risk of multi-step attack paths for different attack strategies. With the filtration and separation unit of a certain natural gas station as an example, this paper establishes a CPNE model to rank the risk of the first multi-step attack single attack source path and predict the risk of subsequent multi-step attack source paths, thus predicting multi-step attack paths. Taking three rounds of attacks as an example, compared to the paths predicted by traditional probability attack graph models, the proposed CPNE model is more advantageous in multi attack source path prediction, with a 2.33-fold increase in the relative coverage rate of path predictions.