Trading Plans Research Articles

Effluent trading planning and its application in water quality management: A factor-interaction perspective

In this study, a Bayesian risk-induced interval stochastic modeling framework (BRISF) is proposed for planning effluent trading program among point and nonpoint sources as well as identifying interactions of important trading factors under system risk. BRISF incorporates nutrient fate modeling with soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), Bayesian inference with random walk Metropolis algorithm (RWM), and constraint-violation risk-based two-stage stochastic programming (CRTSP) within a general framework. Bayesian inference is employed for uncertainty analysis of SWAT model parameters and uncertain prediction of nutrient loadings; this process provides the random inputs for optimization process. CRTSP is capable of dealing with multiple uncertainties in modeling effluent trading program as well as system risk of environmental allowance violation. BRISF is applied to a real case of Xiangxihe watershed in China for water quality management. Solutions for optimal trading scheme corresponding to different risk levels are generated. Thousands of scenarios are examined to analyze the individual and interactive effects of trading ratios and treatment rates on trading system. Comparison between cross-industry and intra-industry effluent trading scheme is also conducted. It is proved that cross-industry trading would bring about higher benefit with reduced pollution loading; cross-industry effluent trading scheme would be recommended to achieve optimal water quality management and system benefit.

A time sequential simulation method for monthly energy trade planning in the power system with multiple energy resources

The mathematical model of power scheduling in the power systems containing many kinds of energy resources is very complex, for it involves many variables, which result in long solving time and high computation requirement especially in the medium-long time scale planning. The existing monthly energy trade planning methods usually focus on single conventional power energy resource. Therefore, it is difficult to effectively deal with the problem of monthly trading plan with multiple energy sources. To solve the problem above, a new time sequential simulation method is proposed. The method presented in this paper takes into account the output characteristics of renewable energy, the output characteristics of conventional units, load characteristics, peak load regulation characteristics of units, and the operation mode. A novel monthly trading planning model which can satisfy the energy saving generation dispatch is presented and is solved using the presented time sequential simulation method by which the power operation is optimized time interval by time interval. The simulation results verify that the presented model and solving method is reasonable and effective. The comprehensive generation costs can be reduced and the social benefits can be improved by using the presented model and method in the process of monthly planning.

Comprehensive incentives for reducing Chinook salmon bycatch in the Bering Sea walleye Pollock fishery: Individual tradable encounter credits

After record salmon bycatch in 2007 by the Eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands fishery for walleye Pollock, the North Pacific Fishery Management Council (NPFMC) concluded that additional management strategies were necessary to further control salmon bycatch. The Preliminary Preferred Alternative (PPA) was selected in April 2009 and implemented in January 2011 as Amendment 91. In this paper, we present the original comprehensive bycatch credits allocation and trading plan as designed by the first author as commissioned by the Alaskan Pollock Fleet for Chinook salmon, the Comprehensive Incentive Plan (CIP). The CIP, which uses individual (vessel-level) tradable encounter credits (ITEC), included incentives that make up the backbone of Amendment 91/PPA. While salmon bycatch has been reduced since the implementation of the PPA, the current amendment does not have individual vessel incentives that vary with the vulnerability of salmon populations. The CIP approach presented here provides robust vessel-level incentives to reduce Chinook salmon bycatch under all levels of salmon abundance, but particularly when salmon populations are at their lowest levels and are most vulnerable. The specific financial incentive structure in the full plan, with trading of by-catch liabilities among vessels, can be applied well in other fisheries where bycatch threatens both sustainability and profitability.

Water Use of Fossil Energy Production and Supply in China

Fossil energy and water resources are both important for economic and social development in China, and they are tightly interlinked. Fossil energy production consumes large amounts of water, and it is essential to investigate the water footprint of fossil energy production (WFEP) in China. In addition, fossil energy is supplied to consumers in China by both domestic and foreign producers, and understanding the water footprint of fossil energy supply (WFES) is also highly significant for water and energy development programs in the long-term. The objectives of this paper were to provide an estimation of the blue component of WFEP and WFES in China for the period from 2001 to 2014, and to evaluate the impact on water resources from energy production, the contribution of internal and external WFES, and water-energy related issues of the international energy trade by applying water footprint analysis based on the bottom-up approach. The results indicate that generally, the WFEP and WFES in China both maintained steady growth before 2013, with the WFEP increasing from approximately 3900 million m3/year to 10,400 million m3/year, while the WFES grew from 3900 million m3/year to 11,600 million m3/year. The fossil energy production caps of the 13th Five Year Plan can bring the water consumed for fossil energy production back to a sustainable level. Over the long-term, China’s energy trade plan should also consider the water and energy resources of the countries from which fossil energy is imported.

Uncertainty analysis for effluent trading planning using a Bayesian estimation-based simulation-optimization modeling approach

In this study, a Bayesian estimation-based simulation-optimization modeling approach (BESMA) is developed for identifying effluent trading strategies. BESMA incorporates nutrient fate modeling with soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), Bayesian estimation, and probabilistic–possibilistic interval programming with fuzzy random coefficients (PPI-FRC) within a general framework. Based on the water quality protocols provided by SWAT, posterior distributions of parameters can be analyzed through Bayesian estimation; stochastic characteristic of nutrient loading can be investigated which provides the inputs for the decision making. PPI-FRC can address multiple uncertainties in the form of intervals with fuzzy random boundaries and the associated system risk through incorporating the concept of possibility and necessity measures. The possibility and necessity measures are suitable for optimistic and pessimistic decision making, respectively. BESMA is applied to a real case of effluent trading planning in the Xiangxihe watershed, China. A number of decision alternatives can be obtained under different trading ratios and treatment rates. The results can not only facilitate identification of optimal effluent-trading schemes, but also gain insight into the effects of trading ratio and treatment rate on decision making. The results also reveal that decision maker's preference towards risk would affect decision alternatives on trading scheme as well as system benefit. Compared with the conventional optimization methods, it is proved that BESMA is advantageous in (i) dealing with multiple uncertainties associated with randomness and fuzziness in effluent-trading planning within a multi-source, multi-reach and multi-period context; (ii) reflecting uncertainties existing in nutrient transport behaviors to improve the accuracy in water quality prediction; and (iii) supporting pessimistic and optimistic decision making for effluent trading as well as promoting diversity of decision alternatives.

Analyzing material flow in Alborz industrial estate, Ghazvin, Iran

Industrial ecology and models such as material flow analysis make operational approaches in order to reuse produced waste as primary resources in other industrial units. In this study, using these concepts and the material flow model, the waste flow network between some of the units in Ghazvin industrial estate have been analyzed. 38 industrial units from the total 220 active units in the estate were visited and quantitative and qualitative information regarding the production process of the plant, waste production, and primary resource consumption was collected. According to the flow model being considered at the estate, a trade plan for 6 types of waste in the estate was presented. In total, 341.6 tons which equals 38% of the produced waste in these industrial units is reusable in this complex. To follow economic analysis in the raw waste, economic value stage was carried out which lead to a 1.43 million US dollar annual income and 256 thousand dollar saving in the loading and transport area. Finally, topics such as database, clustering, and location of industry in this estate were analyzed and discussed based on industrial ecology concepts.

"Nonfarm Employment Report Tradingwith Binary Options & Temporal Functionalities "

The main target of this paper is to discuss a short-term strategy for trading the monthly USA Nonfarm Employment Reports (NFP; Non-Farm Payrolls), by incorporating binary options and temporal warning dynamics & triggering trading functionalities (TTF). The proposed trading strategy is not a fully documented trading system, because it is derived, as well as it has been back-tested on USA Markets sample data (2000-2016) with an initial formal definition and documentation. The nonfarm employment reports are well known to create market volatility fostering short-term trading. Hence, a strategy based on binary options and these TTF functionalities offer great profit opportunities. The current paper contributes to corporate finance literature by examining, analyzing and defining these TTF functionalities. For this purpose, four categories of shareholders are regarded: The long-term investors, the short-term swing traders, the short-term momentary speculators, and the intraday speculators. Paper concludes that, in daily and intraday NFP trading, the short-term swing traders -if they incorporate binary options and apply the proposed TTF in their trading plans and strategies- are benefit at the expense of momentary and intraday speculators, while the long-term investors are not actually affected by the NFP release reports trading.

Estimating Elasticity Function of Jordanian Aggregate Import Demand

This article estimates aggregate import demand function for Jordan using three fully co-integrating regressions over the (1980−2015) period. The bounds testing approach has been employed to test co-integration, while ARDL approach is used to analyze long-run elasticities. The results show a co-integration phenomenon among variables when import volume is dependent variable. In addition, the estimated long-run elasticities of import demand with respect to income and relative prices are 1.16 and -1.03, respectively. The understanding of import demand behavior is crucial for significant import forecasts, international trade planning, and exchange rate policy design.

SEC Rule 10b5-1 Plans and Strategic Trade around Earnings Announcements

We examine how corporate insiders profit from private information about future earnings performance through SEC Rule 10b5-1 trading plans. We first provide evidence consistent with insiders using 10b5-1 plans to sell stock in advance of disappointing earnings results. We then examine insiders who not only currently use 10b5-1 plans, but also actively traded their own company’s stock prior to the availability of such plans. We find that this group traded aggressively on earnings information prior to 10b5-1, but then shifted their aggressive trading into 10b5-1 plans after the availability of planned trading. We also document several questionable patterns associated with their trading behavior. Namely, their trades tend to be irregularly timed, close to the plan initiation date, infrequent in nature, and executed during traditional earnings blackout periods. In terms of firm characteristics, these insiders are more likely to be employed at firms with weaker firm governance and lower institutional ownership.

Anticipating a Sea Change for Insider Trading Law: From Trading Plan Crisis to Rational Reform

The Securities and Exchange Commission is poised to take action in the face of compelling evidence that corporate insiders are availing themselves of rule-sanctioned Trading Plans to beat the market. These Trading Plans allow insiders to trade while aware of material nonpublic information. Since the market advantage insiders have enjoyed from Plan trading can be traced to loopholes in the current regulatory scheme, increased enforcement of the existing rules cannot address the issue. But, simply tweaking the existing rule structure to close these loopholes would not work either. This is because the SEC adopted the current rule as a part of a delicate compromise with the courts in the “use versus possession” debate over the proper test of scienter for insider trading liability. The current rule reflects the SEC’s preferred test (mere “awareness”), but it provides for Trading Plans as an affirmative defense in order to pass judicial scrutiny. Thus, any attempt to simply close the loopholes in Trading Plans while maintaining the awareness test would upset this delicate compromise. Only a comprehensive change to the current insider trading enforcement regime can address the issue. The reform proposed here begins with the recognition that Plan trading is generally done with the firm’s awareness and consent. Such trading is therefore a form of issuer-licensed insider trading. Since there are strong arguments that there is no moral wrong or economic harm done by issuer-licensed insider trading, the regulatory regime should openly embrace it as a permissible form of compensation through firm-sanctioned Modified Trading Plans, so long as there is adequate disclosure. Though such liberalization would represent a radical departure from the current enforcement regime, it would be within the SEC’s rulemaking authority, and would be consistent with Supreme Court precedent. Most importantly, it would dramatically improve the current enforcement regime in terms of justice, clarity, efficiency, and coherence. It is sometimes said there is nothing like a good crisis for effecting much needed change. The current media attention and public scrutiny over corporate insiders’ exploitation of rule-sanctioned Trading Plans may be just the crisis to spur the SEC to adopt a more rational and just approach to insider trading enforcement. The outline for such reform is proposed here.

Variation in outcomes and leakage potential across Clean Power Plan compliance designs

This paper presents results from a “modeler's choice” suite of runs that model the US Environmental Protection Agency's proposed Clean Power Plan (CPP) regulating carbon dioxide emissions from existing power plants under Section 111d of the Clean Air Act more closely than does the core EMF 31 Technology Performance Standard (TPS) case. While the TPS case imposed a national emissions rate standard for the power sector, the CPP imposes its budgets at the state level and provides states a great deal of flexibility in designing their implementation approaches. States may convert their CPP rate targets to a mass basis, and they may join with other states in multi-state trading plans. Under the proposed rule, EPA also left open the question of how new gas units were to be treated under the CPP. This design flexibility leads to a range of possible outcomes when it comes to the impacts of the proposed CPP on emissions, policy costs, electricity generation patterns, and gas markets. We analyzed 40 CPP scenarios in the Framework for Analysis of Climate-Energy-Technology Systems (FACETS), permuting these three design dimensions along with energy efficiency and low shale resource scenarios.Many designs have significantly higher emissions than EPA's original June 2014 design, while others deliver greater emissions reductions. In particular, the EMF TPS is closest to one of the more stringent possible designs. We observed substantial potential for emissions leakage when generation is able to move from covered to uncovered sources or from lower to higher rate states. Movement of generation is stimulated by the very different incentives that are set up across states by the differences in state rates. We discuss the features in each design that drive emissions impacts along with measures that can be taken to mitigate leakage risks. Since the EMF 31 study was completed, EPA has released the final CPP rule, which differs from the proposed rule in many important respects. We discuss the impact of those changes on the leakage potential observed here.Policy impacts on the gas market are found to be highly sensitive to the levels of energy efficiency (EE) achieved. Without EE, the CPP boosts gas production and increases prices by stimulating a shift from coal to gas. However, when the EE levels projected by EPA are achieved as part of state compliance approaches, gas production and price fall below no-policy levels by the mid-2020s.

Insider Sales Based on Short-Term Earnings Information: The Use of Short-Term Rule 10b5-1 Plans

I find strong evidence of insiders selling shares prior to imminent bad earnings news through their Rule 10b5-1 trading plans. While Rule 10b5-1 trading plans may conjure images of regular selling over a sustained period of time, I find that insiders’ sales under these plans often consist of a small number of sales (the median plan consists of 4 sales) and commonly occur over a short period of time (the median plan lasts less than 150 days). Abnormal stock returns, earnings surprises, and abnormal earnings announcement returns are all significantly negative following plans that are short-term in nature, but not following plans that are long-term in nature. Although Rule 10b5-1 does not specify a minimum length for trading plans, finding that sales within short plans significantly outperform sales within longer plans suggests that restrictions on plan length would reduce the incidence and appearance of informed selling through Rule 10b5-1 plans.

Personalized Temporal Trading Functionalities Engaged in Calendar Market Anomalies: Empirical Evidences from the 2007 and 2009 Financial Crises

In volatile markets -like the calendar market anomalies- institutions, traders and speculators constantly search for predictable security’s price action patterns; and their trading plans disturb security prices when they attempt to exploit the uprising trading opportunities. Generic forecasting patterns once become known to public are, therefore, unlikely to win for long periods of time and they will self-destruct when discovered by a large number of traders and speculators. Therefore, this gives rise to non-stationarities in the time series of financial returns and complicates formal tests and evidences of market efficiency, market anomalies and the search for successful and profitable forecasting approaches. Obviously, the need for adapted (i.e. no generic) strategies in trading the calendar market anomalies is apparent. This personalization is complicated and is referred to particular calendar market anomaly (seasonality), to trading instrument characteristics (e.g. beta functionality), and to the traders’ profile (investors, swing traders, intraday speculators, etc.). Hence, in the calendar market anomalies domain, the personalized (adaptive) temporal dynamic approaches could improve trading returns by incorporating temporal trading functionalities. The main target of this paper is to investigate, analyze and document the personalized trading functionalities enclosed in calendar market anomalies. These functionalities are characterized as temporal because of the “time” function involved by default in calendar market anomalies. In particular this article is focused on the identification of monthly calendar anomalies on the Greek and Bulgarian stock markets. Empirical evidences, before and after the 2007 and 2009 financial crises, are presented in support of the hypothesis that small and less liquid markets tend to exhibit market anomalies. In the case of Greece these anomalies are so strong that they are not influenced by the recent crises. Empirical evidences also show that crises may change the long-run calendar anomalies trading functionalities and therefore lead to an improved Market efficiency as a short-run effect. Paper’s innovation is related to the introduction and discussion of the personalized (adapted) temporal trading functionalities encapsulated in markets inefficiency, as far as the calendar markets anomalies is concern. Actually, the presented analysis, in this article, enhances the existing portfolio of approaches and knowledge about the impact of financial crises on real firm behavior during the calendar market anomalies periods.

Economic and environmental evaluation of transporting imported pellet: A case study

This work compares the different methods of transport used to import pellets, through a case study of pellets imported into Italy. The objective was to evaluate the economic and environmental sustainability of the different transport methods, the former via a cost analysis, and the latter via an LCA analysis. In particular, the method of transport by sea from Virginia (USA) was compared to overland transport from some European locations. Industrial pellet markets strictly depend on the import of wood pellets from outside the EU-27. The analysis of transport phase is therefore crucial, for inspecting the consequences of transporting such a commodity along considerable distances and allowing decision makers to make strategic decisions about trade planning, optimize international routes, and choose the most sustainable transport methods. The economic analysis showed that road transport cost ranged from 18 to 112 € t−1, while sea cost from 68 to 82 € t−1. Concerning the environmental evaluation, the impact categories most involved were Fossil Fuels, Respiratory Inorganics and Land Use, showing that the critical points in the transport phase are the oil consumption per km and the production of high quantities of SO2 and NOx. Basically, transport by sea appeared to be better, from the economic viewpoint, and for what concerns one of the major environmental impacts involved (fossil fuels) and primary energy consumption, compared to road transport from some of the European locations normally supplying the Italian market. On the contrary, road transport was preferred if transporting pellets from locations nearest to Italy.

GenCo's Integrated Trading Decision Making to Manage Multimarket Uncertainties

Fossil fuel generation companies (GenCos) trade in multiple uncertain energy markets: fuel and carbon markets on upstream side while electricity market on downstream side. Global economic and environmental benefits lead these markets to pursue overlapping goals, making them highly interactive. GenCos may identify optimal trading strategies for upstream and downstream trading in an integrated framework, to manage an overall secure and profitable position. Further, severe unpredictability of energy market prices may necessitate a GenCo to make trading plans which perform better meeting its goals. Under severe uncertainty of involved markets, this paper proposes Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) based approach to select three interrelated trading portfolios, in an integrated framework. Results from a realistic case study provide a comprehensive decision insight to address risk-averse and risk-seeking behavior of GenCo, explicitly highlighting importance of co-variation in prices of interactive markets.

An inexact simulation-based stochastic optimization method for identifying effluent trading strategies of agricultural nonpoint sources

Agricultural nonpoint sources (NPS) pollution has long been regarded as the leading challenge in maintaining water quality of receiving water bodies. Effluent trading can serve as a cost-effective way to achieve optimal configuration of discharge permits in agricultural NPS pollution control. However, great difficulties exist in practical effluent trading planning, including uncertainties related to randomness and imprecision, system risk of nutrient loadings being unacceptably high, and factors with spatiotemporal heterogeneity within the watershed. In this study, an inexact simulation-based stochastic optimization method (ISSOM) is developed for identifying effluent trading strategies in response to the above challenges. With the aid of technique of interval analysis, uncertain parameters related to nutrient yields can be handled and dynamic variation of NPS contaminant loadings can be reasonably addressed. Besides, ISSOM can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy, stochastic and interval formats and capture the notion of risk under high-variability situation in NPS pollution control. The ISSOM is applied to a real case of agricultural NPS pollution mitigation through effluent trading in Xiangxihe Watershed. Results show that the uncertainties play a major role in successfully launching an effluent trading program, and trading scheme can mitigate agricultural NPS pollution with an increased system benefit. Results also reveal that the agricultural zones of Xiakou and Gufu are the major pollution sources and main purchasers in effluent trading, and Guizhou zone is the main vendor which contributes least to nutrient discharge. These findings can not only facilitate identification of the main pollution sources and optimal effluent trading schemes, but also gain insight into the tradeoff among the agricultural benefit, system risk, and satisfaction degree.

Insider sales based on short-term earnings information

I find strong evidence of insiders selling shares prior to imminent bad earnings news through their Rule 10b5-1 trading plans. While Rule 10b5-1 selling plans may conjure images of regular selling over a sustained period of time, I find that insiders’ sales under these plans often consist of a small number of sales (the median plan consists of four sales) and commonly occur over a short period of time (the median plan lasts less than 150 days). Abnormal stock returns, earnings surprises, and abnormal earnings announcement returns are all significantly negative following plans that are short-term in nature, but not following plans that are long-term in nature. Although Rule 10b5-1 does not specify a minimum length for selling plans, finding that sales within short plans significantly outperform sales within longer plans suggests that restrictions on plan length would reduce the incidence and appearance of informed selling through Rule 10b5-1 plans.

Wind offering strategy in the Australian National Electricity Market: A two-step plan considering demand response

This paper proposes an energy offering strategy for wind power producers. A new trading plan is presented through which a wind power producer can employ demand response (DR) to maximize its profit. To consider DR, a new DR scheme is developed here. The proposed plan includes two steps: The first step takes place on a day-ahead basis. The corresponding decisions involve an initial offering schedule and preliminary DR arrangements for the following day. The second step coincides with the day of the energy delivery. A consecutive approach is proposed in which the wind power producer determines its final energy offer during each trading interval. Simultaneously, the required DR agreements for that interval are also confirmed. This approach is repeated until all periods of the day are covered. The proposed plan is formulated as a stochastic programming approach, where its feasibility is evaluated on a case of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM).

The Big Data & Cloud Era effects of E-port

Big data and cloud computing is the development trend of the global information technology exciting and challenges every day now have a large amount of data and information generated, it provides an opportunity for big data analysis. Cloud computing is the essence of all computing social resources together, to realize automatic management, make all kinds of service providers and users don't need to worry about details, to focus more on their own business, it is conducive to innovation and lower costs. E-port will be all kinds of import and export business enterprise data are centralized to the public data center, If will be use of in cloud big data and computing function to analysis the information, not just stop at passive understanding of import and export trade, can also be planning, guiding, developing more efficient foreign trade and industry development planning. DOI : http://dx.doi.org/10.11591/telkomnika.v12i3.4427 Full Text: PDF

Anticipating a Sea Change for Insider Trading Law: From Trading Plan Crisis to Rational Reform

The SEC is poised to take action in the face of compelling evidence that corporate insiders are availing themselves of rule-sanctioned Trading Plans to beat the market. These Trading Plans allow insiders to trade while aware of material nonpublic information. Since the market advantage insiders have enjoyed from Plan trading can be traced to loopholes in the current regulatory scheme, increased enforcement of the existing rules cannot address the issue. But simply tweaking the existing rule structure to close these loopholes would not work either. This is because the SEC adopted the current rule as a part of a delicate compromise with the courts in the “use versus possession” debate over the proper test of scienter for insider trading liability. The current rule reflects the SEC’s preferred test (mere “awareness”), but it provides for Trading Plans as an affirmative defense in order to pass judicial scrutiny. Thus, any attempt to simply close the loopholes in Trading Plans while maintaining the awareness test would upset this delicate compromise. Only a comprehensive change to the current insider trading enforcement regime can address the issue.The reform proposed here begins with the recognition that Plan trading is generally done with the firm’s awareness and consent. Such trading is therefore a form of Non-Promissory Insider Trading. Since there are strong arguments that there is no moral wrong or economic harm done by Non-Promissory Insider Trading, the regulatory regime should openly embrace it as a permissible form of compensation through firm-sanctioned Modified Trading Plans, so long as there is adequate disclosure. Though such liberalization would represent a radical departure from the current enforcement regime, it would be within the SEC’s rulemaking authority and would be consistent with Supreme Court precedent. Most importantly, it would dramatically improve the current enforcement regime in terms of justice, clarity, efficiency and coherence.It is sometimes said there is nothing like a good crisis for effecting much needed change. The current media attention and public scrutiny over corporate insiders’ exploitation of rule-sanction Trading Plans may be just the crisis to spur the SEC to adopt a more rational and just approach to insider trading enforcement. The outline for such reform has been proposed here.