Trade Arrangements Research Articles

Impact of alternative regional trade arrangements on the Ethiopian economy

The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) is a Free Trade Area (FTA) regional trade agreement in Africa. Currently, Ethiopia is negotiating to join COMESA FTA. This study assesses the impact of three regional trade arrangements, COMESA FTA, customs unions, and the European Partnership Agreement (EPA) on the economy of Ethiopia. The analysis is based on a static Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, version 9 database. Unlike previous studies, the customs union scenarios are designed at the detailed Harmonized System (HS) level. COMESA FTA (scenario 1) with standard GTAP model results in a welfare loss for Ethiopia due to negative terms of trade and investment-saving effect, but with unemployment closure (scenario 2); Ethiopia enjoys a welfare gain mainly due to endowment effect. In scenario 3 (COMESA customs union) and scenario 4 (European Partnership Agreement), Ethiopia loses due to negative terms of trade and investment-saving effect. There is a large increase in demand for unskilled labor force in Ethiopia by around US$23 million, US$112 million, and US$43 million for scenario 2, 3, and 4 respectively. Moreover, there is a positive output effect for oilseeds, leather, and basic metals across all scenarios. The world, as a whole, enjoys welfare gains with COMESA FTA (scenario 1 and 2). However, with scenario 3 and 4, there is an overall welfare loss. There is no strong reason for Ethiopia to move to the customs union, and the EPA in the short run. Therefore, a transition period is necessary, but it is recommended for Ethiopia to join COMESA FTA.

The Adaptation of Japanese Economic Statecraft: Trade, Aid, and Technology

AbstractThis article examines how Japan has adapted economic statecraft to serve changing strategic aims through case studies of trade arrangements, official development assistance, and dual-use technology. After World War II, Japan continuously adapted these economic tools to pursue shifting non-economic goals related to international reintegration, comprehensive security, human security, and traditional security. More recently, in response to escalating US–China strategic competition, Japan has employed economic statecraft to simultaneously reduce international instability and to counter China in targeted ways as part of a broader hedging approach. First, Japan has attempted to bolster multilateral trade arrangements amid a volatile policy environment, while also using them to both engage and counter China. Second, Japan has used official development assistance to stabilize and build defense capacity in Asian countries facing pressure from China. Third, Japan has increasingly militarized its dual-use technologies to enhance its ability to respond to Chinese activity in outer space.

Principal Trading Arrangements: Optimality under Temporary and Permanent Price Impact

We study the optimal execution problem in a principal-agent setting. A client contracts to purchase a large position from a dealer at a future point in time. In the interim, the dealer acquires the position from the market, choosing how to split the parent order into smaller child orders. Price impact may have a temporary and a permanent component. There is hidden action in that the client cannot directly dictate the dealer’s trades. Rather, she chooses a contract with the goal of minimizing her expected payment, taking as given how the dealer’s trading will depend on the contract. We characterize explicitly the optimal contract: it is symmetric, and numerical experimentation suggests it is U-shaped.

Trade in Intermediates and Agro-Food Value Chain Integration: The Case of the Arab Region

Arab intra-regional trade in agro-food accounts for more than half of the total Arab agro-food trade, displaying strong “trade-intensity” over the past decade. This indicates the potential of developing agro-food regional production networks aligning with the region’s comparative advantage in agro-food products. However, intermediates trade, as an indicator of value chain integration, has been low and sluggish due to various structural and policy factors. This article aims to analyze the determinants of trade in agro-food intermediates in the Arab region, focusing on the role and significance of regional trade arrangements and trade facilitation. The Broad Economic Category (BEC) classification is used to categorize goods into intermediate and final goods. Our analysis, using the gravity model, shows that regional trade arrangements in their current form do not significantly affect regional trade (except in the Gulf Cooperation Council [GCC]). We also reveal that timeliness in export delivery is an important determinant of trade in agro-food intermediates. Thus, Arab countries should simplify their customs clearance procedures and engage in a deeper form of regional integration to help build trade corridors and enhance regional value-added chains (RVCs).

The Belt and Road Initiative and the AIIB: Potential Impact on the Economic Architecture of Asia

Dynamics of economic development in Asia in the first two decades of the 21st century can be visualized schematically as a series of waves with different focuses of economic activities of regional powers and prevailing regional economic agenda. The first decade of this century was marked by an increasing number of bilateral free trade agreements, the establishment of ASEAN+1 free trade zones and very general in nature discussions on the prospects for the establishment of a large regional integration block. The US ‘Pivot to Asia’ has promoted transformation of these abstract discussions into substantive debates on parameters and principles of a broader regional trading and economic cooperation arrangement. The second wave in the development of economic processes in Asia (from 2010 to 2017) was characterized by a ‘soft’ rivalry between the US and China for setting the priority model of economic integration in the region (Trans-Pacific Economic Partnership vs. Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) and for establishing rules of a regional trade and investment system. The third wave followed the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative and AIIB, which expanded the focus of the regional countries’ activities from trade liberalization to promoting regional infrastructure development and connectivity. The author aims to assess the role of the Belt and Road and AIIB initiatives in consolidating China’s position in Asia, as well as their potential impact on the regional economic architecture. The first section outlines economic processes in China and in the region in general, which provided a context for establishing the Belt and Road and AIIB initiatives. The second and third sections examine their impact on regional economic processes and on the PRC’s regional positions. The author accentuates substantive changes that these initiatives underwent in 2013-2019 and identifies their intermediate outcomes. The author concludes that the Belt and Road and AIIB initiatives reflect the PRC’s intent to convert its growing economic and financial capabilities into regional influence. The establishment of new multilateral financial institutions, development of new rules governing trade, investment and economic activities, adoption of new production and technical standards, transformation of the regional transport and logistics system, development of new value chains, and other outcomes of foreign economic activities of China already has the potential to reshape the regional economic architecture.

Traders' dilemma: Developing countries' response to trade wars

AbstractAs the United States engages in a trade war with its major trading partners, policymakers in developing countries face the ‘traders’ dilemma’: should they join the trade war, stay out or do something different, including continuing to pursue regional trading arrangements? Using a global, general equilibrium model, we paper simulate an increase in U.S. tariffs to non‐MFN rates and retaliation in kind by its major trading partners—the European Union, China, Mexico, Canada and Japan. We consider four possible responses by developing countries to this trade war: (a) join the trade war; (b) do nothing; (c) form regional trading arrangements with all regions outside the United States; and (d) unilaterally liberalise tariffs on imports from the United States. We find that joining the trade war is the worst option for developing countries (twice as bad as doing nothing); and forming RTAs with non‐U.S. regions and liberalising tariffs on U.S. imports (“turning the other cheek”) is the best. The reason is that a trade war between the United States and its major partners creates opportunities for developing countries to increase their exports to these markets. Liberalising tariffs increases developing countries’ price competitiveness, enabling them to further capitalise on these opportunities.

ASSESSING LONG-RUN GROWTH PROSPECTS FOR THE UK’S REGIONS

The UK faces a number of economic challenges in the short to medium term. Prior to COVID-19, renegotiation of trading arrangements with the European Union was the most prominent of these. We build on existing macroeconomic analysis by assessing prospects for the UK’s regions generated by combining a global macroeconometric model and a regional computable general equilibrium of the UK. A central macroeconomic scenario shows a national average annual GDP growth rate of 1.7 per cent to 2044. When the macroeconomic scenario is applied across regions, growth rates range from 1.6 per cent for Cambridge to 2.2 per cent for Pembrokeshire; the standard deviation is low at 0.07 per cent and the coefficient of variation is 0.04 per cent. In contrast, much wider variation is observed in the standard deviation for exports (0.36 per cent), investment (0.11 per cent) and consumption (0.14 per cent). The country results favour Scotland, which grows at an annual rate of 1.8 per cent, whereas Wales is the slowest growing of the countries at 1.7 per cent. Consistent with the macroeconomic analysis, international trade is the most important contributor to the regional variation in growth rates. We also analyse the effects of higher government consumption relative to the forecasts and find most regions are predicted to experience lower economic activity except the handful in which government consumption is a much higher share of GDP than average.

The Implications of Brexit for UK and EU Regional Competitiveness

Any form of Brexit will impact heterogeneously in terms of sectors and regions on the competitiveness of firms in both the UK and Europe. The ongoing uncertainty about the conditions under which the UK will be leaving the EU, creates difficulties in structurally estimating these impacts. Using uniquely-detailed interregional trade data on goods and services for the EU, we apply a novel methodology that disentangles region-sector sensitivities (elasticities) of firms’ competitiveness to (non)tariff barriers from the implications of different post-Brexit UK-EU trade scenarios. This enables us to derive the impact of Brexit on the competitiveness of firms along with the degree of uncertainty that surrounds these impacts, independently from the scenarios. Our analysis demonstrates that the adverse international competitiveness shocks on UK firms are much larger than those on the rest of the EU due to the dependency of the UK on the EU via global value chains. The competitiveness shocks mean that within the UK, Brexit is likely to increase both interregional inequalities and also intra-regional inequalities. In contrast interregional inequalities across Europe may actually fall, depending on the nature of the post-Brexit UK-EU trading arrangements.

The Implications of Brexit for UK and EU Regional Competitiveness

Any form of Brexit will impact heterogeneously in terms of sectors and regions on the competitive position of firms in both the UK and Europe. The ongoing uncertainty about the conditions under which the UK will be leaving the EU creates difficulties in structurally estimating these impacts. Using uniquely detailed interregional trade data on goods and services for the EU, we apply a novel methodology that disentangles region-sector sensitivities (elasticities) of firms’ competitive positions to (non)tariff barriers from the implications of different post-Brexit UK–EU trade scenarios. This enables us to derive the economic geography of competitive opportunities and vulnerabilities of Brexit of firms, along with the degree of uncertainty that surrounds these effects, independently from scenarios. Our analysis demonstrates that the adverse international competitive vulnerabilities of UK regions are much larger than those of the rest of the EU due to the dependency of the UK on the EU via global value chains. The impact on the competitive positions of firms means that within the UK, Brexit is likely to increase interregional inequalities. In contrast, interregional inequalities across Europe may actually fall, depending on the nature of the post-Brexit UK–EU trading arrangements. Moreover, the key political focus on the nature of the post-Brexit arrangements appears to be misplaced in that most UK regions are rather insensitive to the specific nature of the deal. As such, the economic geography implications of Brexit appear to be largely unrelated to UK domestic political narratives.

Exploring the factors causing the poor performance of most irrigation schemes in post-independence sub-Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT This article explores the factors causing the current poor performance of most government irrigation schemes in sub-Saharan Africa. The literature review finds that the poor performance is not primarily caused by socioeconomic and biophysical conditions inherent to sub-Saharan Africa. African farmers have adapted to diverse biophysical conditions and expanded or contracted their area under agricultural water management in response to market signals. Rather, this poor performance is predominantly linked to the production systems introduced during colonialism and developments since independence, such as agricultural policies restraining rural economic development, unsuitable irrigation technologies and agricultural practices, and international lending practices and trade arrangements.

European Agriculture after Brexit: Does Anyone Benefit from the Divorce?

AbstractThe UK exited the EU on 31 January 2020, with a transition period agreed as part of the Withdrawal Agreement. During this transition period the UK and the EU will decide on their future trading relationship. No matter what form this relationship takes, there will be disturbances to agri‐food markets. This study analyses four different scenarios with increasing barriers to trade, ranging from a very close relationship similar to the European Economic Area to a distant relationship in which the UK and EU trade on Most Favoured Nation terms, using the EU focused global agricultural sector model CAPRI. In the UK, food prices will increase in all scenarios, making consumers in the UK the biggest losers. Only in a free trade agreement scenario does the UK show an unambiguous positive net welfare gain in just the agri‐food sector. In the case of the European Economic Area scenario, which assumes continued access to the single market, the net welfare impact would depend on the size of the UK’s continued contribution to the EU. In the EU, declining food prices would benefit consumers but the sum of the loss in farmers’ incomes and the UK’s EU CAP contribution would be much greater than the consumer’s gain. These impacts in agricultural markets under different future trade arrangements will also be influenced by the UK’s agricultural policy changes in direct payments as well as by possible further UK trade liberalisation after the end of the transition period.

National-level innovation in Africa

Why are some African nations moving ahead in innovation? We develop seven hypotheses for what determines national-level innovation in Africa using seven well established lines of argumentation grouped into two distinct policy areas: international and domestic. The international policy areas are trade arrangements (benefits from economic integration), export specialization (resource curse problem) and inward migration (social capital spillovers). The domestic policy areas are education (investment in human capital), control of corruption (institutional quality), financial inclusion (‘reaching the unbanked’) and internet usage (closing the digital divide). Testing these hypotheses on a unique dataset collated from diverse secondary sources and representing up to 39 African countries, we find that trade arrangements and financial inclusion are the most consistent predictors while the remaining arguments find inconsistent or no support. Exploratory analysis reveals two pathways to innovation in Africa: one internationally oriented, based on trade arrangements for relatively poorer countries, and the other domestically oriented, based on financial inclusion for relatively higher-income countries. The relevance of our findings for policy makers and research is discussed.

From Preferential Trade Arrangements to Free Trade Agreements: One of the Downturns of Cooperation in International Relations?

Since the signing of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO), preferential trade agreements (PTAs) have been an interesting tool to promote international cooperation through the granting of non-reciprocal and/or unilateral tariff preferences by developed countries to developing countries. These international agreements have tended to generate critical trade dependencies for the receiving countries. Due to the circumstances of world trade and due to the lack of interest of the grantors to maintain this type of tariff preference, these developing countries are forced to renegotiate their PTAs into to free trade agreements (FTAs). To demonstrate this, we conducted a qualitative analysis to characterize the behavior of PTAs and their impact on the configuration of FTAs and to obtain indicators and trends. The results suggested a predominance of FTAs and a decline in PTAs. This was done to maintain access to the markets within those granting countries, which also became the main trading partners of these PTA recipient countries.

Economic assessment of high renewable energy penetration scenario in 2030 on the interconnected Irish power system

The Irish Government has set very ambitious targets for the penetration of renewables into the Integrated Single Electricity Market (I-SEM), aiming for 40% electricity generation by 2020. This renewable share is expected to increase further in the I-SEM, British Electricity Trading and Transmission Arrangements (BETTA) and French electricity market by 2030. This research presents a case study testing the various levels of renewable energy integration in the three regions and assessed the economic impacts and benefits at elevated renewables penetration. To measure the economic and environmental sustainability, four indicators, i.e. annual wholesale system marginal prices (SMPs), total generation costs, total generation net revenues and CO2 emissions were selected. The results showed that the I-SEM 2030 wholesale electricity market pricing would range from €101.26/MWh to €50.77/MWh with the increase of renewable integration from 44% to 75%. In the BETTA and French market, the addition of the renewable generation contributes to reductions to SMPs by 51.10% and 51.61% at most, respectively. It was also found that these enhanced renewable targets for 2030 could lower consumers’ electricity bills and expand the total social welfare.

Financial system, trade concentration and economic growth in West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)

It is observed that despite the legislative endorsement of the West Africa Countries there is still a glaring divergence in economic structures, which impedes the performance to realize macroeconomic convergence and economic growth within the region. This paper investigated the effects of trade and financial indexes in WAMZ on economic growth. The paper uses three variables and a host of control measures to focus on six countries of WAMZ covering the periods of 2001-2018. Given the heterogeneous nature of the information gathered for the study, the models are cast in static and dynamic panel frameworks that provided micro-structure for the combined data analysis. The models were tested with various econometric and statistical instruments. Results from the analysis show that exported trade is highly concentrated to fewer goods, while imported trade is concentrated on more products and partners; that is, countries in WAMZ tend to shadow liberal import policy. The weak link was also noticed among financial and trade indexes and economic growth in the WAMZ economies. The implications call for short term economic plans and policies in the WAMZ economies so as to collectively monitor economic policies and growth. We equally observed that the structures of the economies in the region are heterogeneous making it rather difficult for regional trade and financial indicators to accelerate output growth in the region. Thus our basic postulations are an inter-policy approach on social, political and economic (trade and finance) arrangements that would neutralize the heterogeneity and foster institutional and attitudinal reforms, eliminate insecurity challenges, and spur political stability and responsible leadership within the regions.

The WTO is not passé

Abstract The empirical literature on the effect of trade agreements has reached a consensus that WTO effects are insignificant or modest at best especially compared to the robust and strong positive effect of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on bilateral trade (Rose, 2004; Eicher and Henn, 2011; Baier and Bergstrand, 2007, 2009). In this paper, we show that previous work that reports “average treatment effects” on trade flows fails to account for the heterogeneity in the effects of trade arrangements over time, leading to an underestimation of the WTO effect on bilateral trade. We present semi-parametric estimates of the impact of WTO membership, allowing for heterogeneity of WTO effects over time. We find evidence for strong WTO effects over time, with the WTO effects increasing almost monotonically with years of membership. In fact, in the long-term, the magnitude of the WTO effect exceeds those of the PTA effects. We also find that the strongest WTO effect over time is for destinations that are developing countries that underwent rigorous accession procedures to join the WTO. Disaggregating PTAs into bilateral, multilateral, and deep integration (customs union, common markets, and economic union), we find that the long-term effects of WTO membership dominate bilateral and multilateral PTAs but fall short of deep integration arrangements. Finally, we show that WTO membership increases both the extensive and intensive margins of trade over time, with a stronger impact on the former. Our results are consistent with gradual trade liberalization and declining trade policy uncertainty over time, following WTO membership.

Does the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) impact EU-15 imports from Africa?

PurposeAt the heart of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) are substantial trade preferences, which coupled with the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) grant a wide range of goods produced in qualified African countries duty-free access to the USA. To be AGOA-eligible, countries are assessed annually on their progress in undertaking appropriate economic, institutional and human rights reforms. This paper seeks to cover new grounds by exploring whether exports of apparel to US crowds out EU-15's imports from Africa.Design/methodology/approachThis paper employs the gravity model to gauge trade displacement effects from the EU to the US due to AGOA, and whether the more relaxed special waiver embodied in AGOA's apparel provision causes non-knitted exports to EU-15 to be crowded out. The basic gravity model, which posits that trade between two countries is positively influenced by the economic size and negatively affected by the distance between them, is augmented with other trade inhibiting and trade facilitating variables.FindingsThe gravity model provides no evidence of trade displacement but, instead, provides support for the hypothesis of complementarity of African exports to the two key markets. A strong positive impact of the bilateral trade between the US and Africa on the EU–African trade is evident mainly before the phasing out of the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC). This paper finds that Special Rule beneficiaries' exports to the two markets still complement each other, but for every percentage increase in exports to the USA, there is a less than proportionate increase in exports to EU-15 indicating a higher utilisation of the special waiver. This paper also provides evidence for complementary apparel exports to both LDCs (least developing countries) and non-LDCs, with stronger effects on non-LDCs and the non-knitted sector.Research limitations/implicationsFuture work could consider the longer lifespan of AGOA following its latest renewal in 2015. This would allow one to also capture the ongoing changes in EU trade arrangements in particular implementation of Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs). This new agreement comes with more flexible rules of origin requiring single transformation step instead of the double step. As most African nations are still in the process of adopting EPAs, new research can shed more light on complementary or displacement effects once these agreements are adopted.Originality/valueSince the main intent of AGOA is to enhance Africa's integration into the global economy by encouraging trade and investment, generate employment and increase productivity and per capita income growth, its impact on Special Rule beneficiaries' exports to the US has been extensively examined. However, the indirect effects of this trade agreement on African exports to other key markets providing similar preferences such as the EU has not been fully explored. This study also covers new grounds by examining whether there has been any apparel trade displacement from the EU to the US, as a result of the Act, over 2001–2016 period right from AGOA's inception.

Issues in Australian Foreign Policy July to December 2019

Issues in Australian Foreign Policy July to December 2019

Geopolitics, Food Security, and Imaginings of the State in Qatar’s Desert Landscape

AbstractIn June 2017, a geopolitical crisis that emerged in the Arab Gulf between Qatar and several of its neighboring countries resulted in the severing of diplomatic ties and the imposition of a land, sea, and air embargo on Qatar. This article explores how the import, production, and consumption of food in Qatar came to constitute a key geopolitical axis during the first year of the crisis. Building on scholarly work that examines food as not just a part of the economic and social fields but also a form of political engagement, I argue that food became an important arena of politics during the blockade in several ways. First, the state’s reorganization of trade networks and its support for Qatari agricultural production became a site for the expansion of the state’s food security agenda. Second, the consumption of food—and the physical space of the supermarket itself—became a geopolitical battleground as new trade arrangements led to the replacement of products made by “blockading countries” with those from alternative ones. The intensification of local agricultural production, in turn, forged a “buy local” consumer culture that shaped, and was shaped by, nationalist sentiments. Looking closely at the import, production, and consumption of food during the blockade illuminates the ways in which food is an everyday medium through which state ideologies and state imaginings of the nation are constructed and circulated.

Acquiring environmental flows: ecological economics of policy development in western U.S.

The western U.S. faces trade-offs between providing water for urban, agricultural and industrial uses and allocating water to environmental needs. These competing uses have been the subject of many conflicts addressed by courts, legislatures and voluntary water trading arrangements. This paper draws upon Social Ecological Economics of Water (SEEW) and Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET) to evaluate the interdependent roles of voluntary transactions and mandates to provide environmental water. The article presents stages of maturation in water trading, and applies these to two evolving markets in the western U.S. Case studies of the Edwards Aquifer in Texas and the Colorado River Delta illustrate the interplay of voluntary water trading and compulsory reallocation. The cases highlight interdependencies among policy instruments and pathways of water policy innovation.The SEEW and PET frameworks shed light on persistent difficulties faced with developing markets to acquire water for environmental needs. The case studies demonstrate SEEW concepts of patrimony and power dynamics in considering why objections to voluntary water trading endure, even though water transactions are a valuable policy instrument. The case studies illustrate PET principles on the role of economic impetus in propelling policy innovation and on pivotal contributions by academics and NGOs.