Trade Area Research Articles

Identifying the determinants of E-commerce offerings among grocery store locations in the United States: A spatial econometric analysis

This paper leverages store location data and analysis software from retail industry vendors to analyze the unique geographies of electronic commerce (e-commerce) offerings among major grocery chains in the United States. Join-Count statistics are calculated to identify patterns of clustering among offerings, and a spatial probit model is implemented to regress various trade area characteristics on a given grocery banner's decision to offer some form of e-commerce (pickup, delivery, or both) or no offering at a given store location. A regional case study of the Southeastern United States demonstrates how model results can shift based on scale, pointing to unique regional dynamics that deviate from broader national trends. This analysis carries implications for location planning and competitive defense strategies in the grocery industry, and also establishes avenues for future research.

Embracing the African continental Free trade Area: Unpacking Malawi’s economy response to trade liberalization

The impact of trade liberalization on Malawi’s economy has been a hotly debated topic. To shed light on the subject, a study was conducted using the PEP-1–1 CGE model and the latest Malawi’s Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) from 2019. The results were eye-opening, revealing the potential effects of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on various sectors of the economy. The removal of trade tariffs is predicted to have a significant impact on prices, with a decrease of 26.31% in the agricultural sector alone, services (−7.88%), public administration (−9.92%), and manufacturing and industry (−11.23%) imposing hopes of improving food affordability and food security. However, it is expected to have adverse impacts on wage rates in the agricultural sectors (−18.78%), manufacturing and construction (−19.01%), services (−2.79%) and public administration (−15.81%). Additionally, while exports are expected to increase, the country’s balance of payments may suffer as imports are likely to outweigh foreign earnings. This could also lead to a decrease in government revenue from taxes. To mitigate these effects, the study suggests implementing export restructuring strategies, particularly in industries like manufacturing and construction, and promoting diversification of local production to boost competitiveness and improve wage rates. With these measures in place, the government will not only offset potential losses but also tap into new sources of taxable income.

Regional (economic) integration, political stability uncertainty and (intra-African) exports

The economic literature reports ambiguous effects of regional economic integration (REI) and political stability on exports. Therefore, this research analyzes the effects of REI and political stability on intra-African exports, compares them to the effects on intra-African imports and explores the combined effect of REI and political stability on intra-African exports. We use the two-stage least squares and fixed-effects approach which includes the two-step feasible generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation to address endogeneity issues in a panel of 49 African countries over the period of 1996–2022. The results show that REI and political stability lead to an increase in intra-African exports. However, while REI results in an increase in intra-African imports, political stability results in a decrease; similar findings are highlighted for overall intra-African trade as well as for total exports of goods and services. The results remain robust across diverse estimation techniques. Furthermore, they reveal that political stability plays a role in amplifying the relationship between REI and intra-African exports. Supporting the African Continental Free Trade Area agenda, these findings imply that African policymakers need to (i) strengthen REI to increase intra-African trade and (ii) improve political stability to ensure that a greater part of REI is canalized in a more effective way in order to boost intra-African exports.

A Commentary on the Jurisdictional Challenges in the Rand- Dollar Exchange Manipulation "Cartel": Competition Commission of South Africa v Bank of America Merrill Lynch International Designated Activity Company [2023] ZACT 26 (30 March 2023)

Cartels are the most egregious of competition law transgressions, because they entail a concerted effort on the part of cartel members to deliberately distort the market through price fixing, bid rigging, market allocation and constraining the supply of goods and services. Despite efforts by national competition authorities in various countries to combat cartelism, cartels have proved to have long tentacles, often extending beyond borders and morphing into "cross-border cartels". This contribution discusses one of the major challenges that cross-border cartels poses to competition authorities, that of prosecutorial and penal jurisdiction. The note focusses on the "banking cartel" that has been and still is the subject of contentious litigation. In March 2023 the Competition Tribunal (the Tribunal) handed down judgment in the matter of the Competition Commission of South Africa v Bank of America Merrill Lynch International Designated Activity Company [2023] ZACT 26 (30 March 2023). There were several questions in the matter, including the jurisdiction of the South African competition authorities to investigate and prosecute firms not incorporated or operating in South Africa (pure peregrini). The Competition Commission (the Commission) had initiated proceedings in the Tribunal against a host of banks for alleged cartel conduct, and some of the respondent banks raised objections and exceptions relating to the jurisdiction of the South African competition authorities. The note observes that while national competition authorities may have prosecutorial jurisdiction against cross-border cartels, there is still a challenge in enforcing an order where cartels are non-resident in the country. The contribution also notes potential challenges to cartel enforcement on the African continent in light of the establishment of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Due to the removal of various trade barriers, there is likely to be a rise in cross-border competition issues, including cross-border mergers and cross-border cartels. The note therefore discusses a pertinent issue, that of jurisdiction, which may well be a challenge within the AfCFTA.

Sino-Africa Relations Post-Covid-19: Issues for Consideration

Sino-Africa relations have been periodised into three phases. The first phase (1950s–1970s) includes the establishment of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1949 and the decolonisation of African states. The second phase (1971–1990s) includes the drift of Sino-Soviet relations, the admission of China into the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), as well as the end of the Cold War. The third phase (2000s–2020) covers the inclusion of China into the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001, as well as the establishment of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in 2010. This article considers the fourth phase of Sino-Africa relations, argued to have begun in 2020 post-Covid-19, taking place at a time of de-globalisation, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the US-China trade war. We assert that the latter changing global dynamics must be considered in making sense of Sino-Africa relations today. The article argues that despite such a changing global political order, there have been continuities and changes in China’s relations with the African continent. This is evident in the tightening of its relations with Africa, irrespective of ongoing dynamics in global affairs. Despite concerns about the USA’s reprioritisation of Africa, the establishment of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), vaccine diplomacy, and China and African States’ “neutrality” stance on various ongoing conflicts, it is safe to say that Sino-Africa relations will triumph even in this new phase.

Proportion of Patients in the United States Who Fill Their Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir Prescriptions.

Although real-world studies demonstrate that those prescribed nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (and particularly within 5days of symptom onset) are less likely to experience severe COVID-19 outcomes, prior studies show that only a small fraction of patients with COVID-19 who are eligible for nirmatrelvir/ritonavir receive a prescription. Studies calculating the proportion of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir prescriptions filled and identifying individual- and pharmacy-level correlates of filling nirmatrelvir/ritonavir are lacking. This retrospective cohort study included individuals aged ≥ 12years with a nirmatrelvir/ritonavir prescription ordered at a large national retail pharmacy (December 22, 2021-August 12, 2023). Those taking contraindicated medications were excluded. For those with only one nirmatrelvir/ritonavir prescription ordered, the outcome was whether the prescription was filled (yes/no). In a subanalysis of these individuals, the outcome was whether the prescription was filled within 5days of symptom onset (yes/no). For those with multiple prescriptions ordered, the outcome was whether > 1 (vs. 0 or 1) prescriptions were filled. A log-binomial regression with generalized estimating equations was used to identify individual (clinical and demographic) and pharmacy-level (percentage of trade area that is non-Hispanic white, urbanicity, US Census region, and tract-level area deprivation index) correlates. A total of 2,103,570 unique nirmatrelvir/ritonavir prescriptions were ordered for 1,985,990 individuals. Among the 95% of individuals prescribed only one nirmatrelvir/ritonavir course, 88% filled their prescription. Among those with > 1 prescription ordered, 77% (82,993/108,411) filled one and 13% (13,662/108,411) filled > 1. Patients ≥ 50years of age and those with documented high-risk conditions were slightly more likely to fill prescriptions, regardless of whether one or multiple courses were ordered. Individuals with cancer, asthma, or taking corticosteroids or immunosuppressive medications were more likely to fill multiple prescriptions. Most patients filled their nirmatrelvir/ritonavir prescriptions. Interventions to improve uptake should focus on increasing patient and provider awareness, reducing nirmatrelvir/ritonavir prescribing disparities, and ensuring treatment initiation within 5days.

Africa’s lingua franca and its role in the successful implementation of the AfCFTA: a case for Kiswahili as the African commerce and epistemological language

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is the largest free trade agreement in the world in terms of its membership and it has tremendous potential to lift millions of Africans out of poverty through boosting intra-Africa trade by ensuring that Africa has one gigantic market of over 1.3 billion people. For this to be achieved, this trade agreement must be implemented rapidly and to the letter. This article therefore argues that, among others, the use and adoption of an African indigenous language such as Kiswahili can play an important role in enabling Africans to trade with one another with ease and mutual trust. The adoption and use of this language as a potential lingua franca for commerce and teaching and learning also has the potential to harness the innovation and creativity of Africans as this would be emanating from the age-old ingenuity of our forebears. The main argument made here is that language is both the reservoir and vessel for culture and indigenous knowledge systems (IKS), and without its maximum exploitation, our societies will not industrialise and develop. Methodologically, qualitative semi-open-ended interviews and non-participant observation were conducted in Kenya, Tanzania and South Africa to gauge experts’ views on the utility of Kiswahili as a potential Pan-African language. Pan-Africanism and Afrocentricity are key theories deployed in giving shape to this study.

Foreign Investment in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations: Opportunities, Challenges and Prospects

African countries remain stubbornly plagued by fragility and conflict-affected conditions. Out of thirty-seven countries categorized as fragile and conflict-affected states, African countries are nineteen in number representing about 51% of the total states. The remaining African countries that are excluded in this list do not fare better in institutional and social fragility index, nor are they delivering enduring peace and sustainable development to their populace. The African Union (AU)’s approval of the Phase II of the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement (AfCFTA) constitutes a pragmatic approach to use investment framework to change the climate of fragility and conflict. Foreign investment presents a veritable opportunity to turn the fragile and conflict-affected African states into a hub of peace and development. The increase in international investment brings with it the spillover of skills, know-how and technology into the host state. Additionally, foreign investment increases employment and revenue generation, diversification and improvement in the quality of products and services, and overall improvement in the standard of living. Equitable and inclusive sharing of revenues from natural resources similarly promotes societal cohesion and limits the triggers of institutional fragility. Consequently, this paper seeks to explore the modalities for the use of foreign investment as a pathway to inclusive development in African countries plagued by fragility and conflict.

Competitive Challenges of the Democratic Republic of Congo Companies in the face of African Continental Free Trade Area Agreements

Competitive Challenges of the Democratic Republic of Congo Companies in the face of African Continental Free Trade Area Agreements

POST-SOVIET SPACE MULTILATERAL INTERACTIONS DYNAMICS PROMOTED BY THE INTRAREGIONAL AND EXTRA-REGIONAL ACTORS: INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL IMPLICATIONS

The article examines the key aspects of multilateral economic cooperation between the countries of the post-Soviet space. In addition to Eurasian economic integration within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), there are other forms of multilateral economic cooperation in the post-Soviet space, mainly, initiated and promoted by the European Union, China and Turkey. On the other hand, the EAEU also seeks to build foreign economic relations with third countries located outside the pro-Soviet space, for example, by creating free trade areas with them. The article analyzes the main characteristics, prospects, limitations and problems of these types of multilateral economic cooperation, and the main aspects of their interaction.

Digitalization and Cyber Security Policies in Uzbekıstan's Institutions and Sectors in One Belt One Road Project

The diffusion of information and communication technologies (ICT) into a rapidly growing area of global trade has contributed significantly to the gains made by companies and governments. Increasing consumption at the international level and the desire for faster and more reliable delivery of goods have led to the emergence of new sectors. In this context, states, other government agencies, and the private sector have sought to enhance their bilateral relations and investments and establish strategic partnerships to develop new fast, and reliable trade networks. While actions and activities in cyberspace and digital spaces have provided significant convenience and opportunities, they have also led to significant security concerns. The purpose of this study is to examine and evaluate the contribution of the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative to the digitalization of Uzbekistan and the policies pursued by Uzbekistan in this regard, and to investigate the effects of public and private sector institutional cooperation in the One Belt, One Road project. The content analysis method was applied, one of the qualitative research methods. The study was also strengthened with the SWOT analysis method. By comparing relevant documents and sources on the subject, the aim of the study was concluded. The studies carried out to increase Uzbekistan's cyber capacity, the importance of maintaining strong cyber security policies through technology transfer, the challenges and legal regulations, institutional and sectoral cooperation, and their effects are the problem statements within the outline of the purpose of the study.

Visa-on-arrival, ECOWAS-free Mobility and the Securitisation of the Intra-African Migration in Nigeria

Over the years, Nigeria’s regional hegemonic leadership in (West) Africa, especially within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) region, has been debated within academic and foreign relations circles. A major component of this regional leadership aspiration was its quest for a ‘borderless Africa’. As an important arrowhead of its pro-African foreign policy, the Nigerian government proactively crafted a benign national border policy to give practical expression to the free mobility of persons and goods within the West African subregion. Despite a demonstrable commitment to free mobility within Africa over the years, Abuja suddenly imposed a restrictive border policy shortly after it signed the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement and approved the contentious visa-on-arrival for African migrants. Considering this context, this study makes three arguments: First, it interrogates the rationale behind the liberal border diplomacy of the Nigerian government. Secondly, the paper contends that the inability to ‘silence the guns’ in Africa despite all efforts has seriously militated against the aspiration for intra-African mobility and borderless Community in West Africa. Lastly, the study examines the dire implications of Nigerian nationalistic border diplomacy and its declining soft power for the future of ‘borderless West Africa’.

DYNAMIC VOLATILITY SPILLOVERS BETWEEN CURRENCIES OF ASEAN MEMBER COUNTRIES AND CHINA: EVIDENCE FROM TVP-VAR APPROACH

Driven by the importance of analyzing interregional volatility spillover effects, this study investigates dynamic volatility spillovers between the currencies of China– ASEAN Free Trade Area (FTA) member countries by applying the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) connectedness approach to a sample spanning January 1, 2006, to October 31, 2022. The results show that (1) dynamic volatility connectedness varies over time and reaches peaks due to economic events, such as the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic; (2) the Chinese yuan (CNY) market assumes more of a net receiving role for volatility spillovers after the 811 exchange rate reform, while the Singapore dollar (SGD) market assumes more of a net transmitting role for volatility spillovers in the whole sample period and (3) negative spillovers are dominant during the study period, except during the European debt crisis. Our findings can help China and ASEAN establish an exchange rate coordination mechanism to prevent the cross-country transmission of exchange rate risk.

The Collaborative Mechanism of Digital Property Rights Protection and Intellectual Property Rights Protection in the Economic Development of the Hainan Free Trade Port

As the Hainan Free Trade Port is vigorously promoted by the Chinese government as a new experimental zone for an open economy, aimed at establishing a high-standard free trade area, it is expected not only to become a significant commercial and trade hub in China and globally but also a crucial window for China's deepened reforms and expanded openness. This article comprehensively analyzes the issues of digital property rights protection and intellectual property rights protection in the economic development of the Hainan Free Trade Port, proposing a series of digital strategies and collaborative approaches to facilitate the efficient implementation of property rights and intellectual property rights protection.

Management Economic Systems and Governance to Reduce Potential Risks in Digital Silk Road Investments: Legal Cooperation between Hainan Free Trade Port and Ethiopia

This research explores the interplay between innovation, economic systems, governance structures, and law, and how they interact with one another in the context of China and Ethiopia’s investments in the Digital Silk Road. The way cutting-edge methods related to governance and economic systems might help lower the risks involved in major infrastructure projects, like the Digital Silk Road, particularly in light of law and 5G developments, is investigated. China–Africa connections are to be strengthened, sustainable development is to be encouraged, and healthy economic progress is the goal of the partnership between Ethiopia and the Hainan Free Trade Port. The impact of these transnational investments on fair growth and sustainable development is assessed, while exploring the evolving agendas and procedures governing investments. This research draws attention to how the law and legal cooperation between Ethiopia and China may promote mutually advantageous outcomes, promote transparency and governance mechanisms, and lessen the likelihood of disputes. This research on the factors influencing the future of the Digital Silk Road and its consequences for long-term, sustainable economic growth, and business in the area, aims to provide valuable insights for policymakers, development professionals, and academics, and for the copromotion of China and Ethiopia in terms of digital investment. This research relates to the promotion of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), in terms of construction and economic development. It also examines how the DSR raises concerns about data security and privacy, cross-border transactions, technology transfer, and cyberterrorism, as well as encourages digital investment, such as through enhancing digital governance regulations, modernizing international investment agreements (IIAs), and bolstering global health, coordination, and cooperation; the article concludes by analyzing the implications for Africa. The findings show that such cooperation would support Africa’s digital transformation and sustainable development, while strengthening China–Africa cooperation.

Conversion of Sidewalks into Vendor Stalls: A Case Study on Mardika Street, Sirimau District, Ambon

This research examines the functional shift of sidewalks into merchant kiosks on Mardika Beach Road, Sirimau District, Ambon. The research type used is a survey method with quantitative and qualitative approaches. The research location is on Mardika Beach Road, with the implementation time from November 16 to December 16, 2023. The research population consisted of 30 merchant kiosks, with a purposive sample of 20 people. Data collection techniques include observation, interviews, documentation, and data analysis. The study results show that the functional shift of sidewalks at Mardika Terminal has positive and negative impacts that need to be considered balanced. Positively, the functional change of sidewalks into trading areas provides economic opportunities for local communities to develop small businesses, create new jobs, and promote economic growth. However, on the other hand, the functional shift of sidewalks has reduced the effectiveness and comfort of pedestrian paths. The sidewalks from Mardika Beach Bridge to the small port have been used as trading locations, resulting in discomfort for pedestrians. Uncontrolled economic activities also impact traffic congestion and environmental cleanliness issues due to scattered waste. Thus, a balance between economic growth and public convenience can be optimally achieved in the Mardika Terminal area, Ambon.

Panel data modeling: Identifying and handling outliers with the VSOM approach

While modeling panel data, identifying outliers is crucial, yet visually spotting them can be challenging. However, not many methods exist for outlier detection in panel data models other than robust estimation methods. This study uses the variance shift outlier model (VSOM) approach to identify and handle outliers in panel data modeling, both in single and simultaneous equation modeling. This study applies the VSOM approach to GDP and FDI data from ten countries that are part of the ASEANChina Free Trade Area (ACFTA). The results demonstrate that the VSOM approach effectively handle outliers in panel data modeling, in both single and simultaneous equation model. Specifically, the VSOM model shows a lower sum of squared residuals (SSR) compared to the null model. This indicates that VSOM successfully reduces the impact of outliers, leading to improved model fit and accuracy in capturing the underlying relationships within the data. Some of the highlights of the proposed approach are:•Identifying the square of the standardized residual.•Generate the distribution of the squared standardized residuals by parametric bootstrapping.•Reducing the impact of observations identified as outliers by downweighting their variance through the addition of a D matrix.

Examining current regional intensity of trade in Africa: How strong are the trade linkages and implications for intra-Africa trade in the African Continental Free Trade Area

Examining current regional intensity of trade in Africa: How strong are the trade linkages and implications for intra-Africa trade in the African Continental Free Trade Area

Evolutionary game analysis and efficiency test of water pollution control driven by emission trading: Evidence from Zhejiang Province, China

Presently, China is actively endorsing the pilot initiative for the remunerative use and trading of emission. By examining the operation and efficacy of emission trading in the context of water pollution control, one can contribute to the advancement and refinement of this system, thereby facilitating the attainment of regional pollution reduction, carbon reduction, and high-quality development objectives. In pursuit of this objective, we develop a theoretical framework for the local government and sewage enterprises evolutionary game of water pollution control, which includes two scenarios without considering and considering emission trading for studying the influencing factors and evolution trajectory of the game subject's. Through the stability analysis, the game interactive mechanism, the difference in evolutionary trajectory, and the response logic of the decision-making body in different situations become clearly visible. Further, the system sensitivity factors are analyzed by solving the partial derivation of the area formula of the phase diagram. And the efficacy of the sewage trading system in water pollution control in Zhejiang Province is empirically examined at the micro level by adopting the trading data of the first pilot area of sewage trading in the country and the case of pollution control in Jinhua City. The research reveals the following conclusions: Under specific circumstances, emission trading can incentivize businesses and even industries to enhance pollution control measures as a whole. The performance and degree of sensitivity factors vary across gaming systems, with public reputation evaluation and central government inspection serving as positive constraints. The initial cost of paid use of emission permits, as a fixed cost component for firms to address pollution, has no effect on the enterprises' behavioral actions to satisfy emission regulations. The findings can furnish local governments with a theoretical foundation and decision support in order to optimize regulatory strategies and enhance pollution control policies.

Assessing the Impact of the AKFTA on Indonesia-South Korea Trade Flows: A Panel Data Analysis

This study examines the impact of the ASEAN-Korea Free Trade Area (AKFTA) on trade flows between Indonesia and South Korea. This cooperation will impact trade diversion or even trade creation between Indonesia and countries in ASEAN-Korea. This study uses panel data regression analysis and secondary data sources on trade and other macroeconomics from various trusted institutions, such as United Nations, World Bank, etc., as well as the results of scientific research. The research results show that the implementation of AKFTA causes trade diversion on the export side and trade creation on the import side. The findings of this study also highlight that the implementation of AKFTA has an impact on the tendency to increase the value of Indonesian imports from both AKFTA members and non-members. However, the aggregate effect of AKFTA on trade creation is still more significant than trade diversion. Therefore, to overcome the trade diversion resulting from AKFTA, the government can make various efforts by negotiating with trading partner countries to obtain tariff reductions and open market access to new products.