Traded Goods Sector Research Articles

The Global Transmission of Real Economic Uncertainty

AbstractUsing a sample of 39 countries representing 88% of global GDP, we find that real economic uncertainty (REU) has negative long‐lasting domestic economic effects and transmits across countries. The international spillover effects of REU are both statistically significant and economically meaningful, and trade ties play a key role in explaining its transmission across countries. Innovations to the foreign component of global REU can contribute up to 16% of the future variation in domestic industrial production. This effect is disproportionately larger on its manufacturing component, which contributes the most to the tradable goods sector, than on its retail sales component.

Fluctuations of the Real Exchange Rate and the Structure of the Iraqi Economy

This paper analyzes how a boom in the oil sector affects the relative prices of non-tradable goods compared to tradable goods, the real exchange rate, and the competitiveness of Iraq’s broader economy. As the oil sector booms, Iraq’s currency appreciates, which reduces the competitiveness of the country’s traditional export sectors. This thesis investigates the presence of Dutch Disease in Iraq, an area previously unexplored. It evaluates the impact of growing oil revenues on the non-oil sectors of the economy and provides empirical evidence showing a contraction in the tradable goods sector and an appreciation of the real exchange rate. The findings suggest that Iraq experienced symptoms of Dutch Disease, including real exchange rate appreciation, a shrinking tradable goods sector, and an expanding non-tradable goods sector. Ultimately, the appreciation of the real exchange rate is responsible for shifting Iraq‘s economy from manufacturing and agriculture (tradable sectors) to construction and services (non-tradable sectors).

Fiscal policy, macroeconomic performance and industry structure in a small open economy

We analyse how fiscal policy affects both the macroeconomy and the industry structure, using a multi-sector macroeconomic model of the Norwegian economy with an inflation targeting monetary policy. Our simulations show that the magnitude of the government spending and labour tax cut multipliers, whether monetary policy is active or passive, is comparable to what is found in the literature. A novel finding from our simulations is that the industry structure is substantially affected by an expansionary fiscal policy, as value added in the non-traded goods sector increases at the expense of value added in the traded goods sector. Moreover, expansionary fiscal policy reduces the mark-ups in the traded goods sector, while the mark-ups are roughly unchanged in the non-traded goods sector. The contraction of activity in the traded goods sector increases when monetary tightening accompanies the fiscal stimulus. Hence, we find that such a policy mix is likely to produce significant de-industrialization in a small open economy with inflation targeting.

‘Good jobs’, training and skilled immigration

AbstractHas skilled immigration into the UK led to a reduction in the training of native‐born workers? To address this concern, this paper describes a theoretical model where immigration can affect the training of native‐born workers both positively and negatively, and where its effects may differ according to the characteristics of the migrant and of the training firm's sector. It then investigates this issue empirically using UK Labour Force Survey data from 1995 to 2018. At the aggregate level, there is a small positive association between skilled immigration and native training rates. However, a more disaggregated analysis finds that the relationship between immigration and native training depends on the skill level of the immigrant, the skill level of trainees, and the sector into which immigration occurs. In particular, traded goods sectors show a positive association between training of UK‐born workers and both unskilled and skilled immigration. In non‐traded high‐wage sectors, the association between skilled immigration and UK‐born training is negative. These findings highlight the importance of allowing for heterogeneous effects from immigration when formulating policy or when modelling immigration's effects across the wider economy.

A Quantitative Appraisal of Adjustment Lending

This paper presents a quantitative analysis of adjustment programmes. This is done by charting changes in various performance indicators fonowing the receipt of the first adjustment loan, and by further contrasting the results with those for the comparator group of countries that did not receive adjustment loans. h is found that the average decline in the GOP growth rate in the loan-recipient countries was less than in the comparator groups. Similar results were obtained in regard to per capita GOP. At the same time, in both cases, a majority of loan-recipient countries experienced an improvement in their relative position vis-d-vis the nonrecipient s. It is further apparent that the loan-recipient countries made an adjustment effort in the period following the fIrst loan. To begin with, economic expansion was concentrated in the traded goods sectors, industry and agriculture, both of which experienced an improvement in the loan-recipient countries relative to the comparator groups. Also, the growth of consumption declined substantially in absolute terms as well as relative to the non-recipient countries. In turn, an acceleration is observed in the growth of investment that holds the promise for future economic growth.

Financial globalization and monetary transmission

AbstractThis article studies the way in which international financial integration affects the domestic transmission of monetary policy in a standard New Keynesian open economy model. It extends Woodford's (2010) model to a framework, in which not only a global integration of goods and factor markets, but also financial markets might matter for the monetary transmission mechanism. The article considers two broad types of experiments meant to capture financial integration, a decrease in the costs of international asset trading and an increase in the level of gross foreign asset holdings. The main finding is that none of the analyzed forms of financial integration undermine the effectiveness of monetary policy in influencing domestic output and inflation. On the contrary, under a wide array of parameterizations, and even in an environment where the exchange rate pass‐through elasticity is very low and the Home country's traded goods sector is very small compared to world markets, monetary policy is more, rather than less, effective as the positive impact of strengthened exchange rate and wealth channels more than offsets the negative impact of weakened interest rate channels. Monetary policy is most effective in simulations interacting the highest degrees of the two forms of financial integration.

The Global Transmission of Real Economic Uncertainty

<ns3:p>Using a sample of 30 countries representing about 65% of the global GDP, we find that real economic uncertainty (REU) has negative long-lasting domestic economic effects and transmits across countries. The international spillover effects of REU are (i) additional to those of domestic REUs, (ii) statistically significant, and (iii) economically meaningful. Trade ties play a key role in explaining why uncertainty generated in one country can affect economic outcomes in other countries. Based on this evidence, we construct a novel index for global REU as the trade-weighted average of all countries' REUs. We disentangle the effects of the domestic and foreign components of global REU and find that, on average, innovations to the foreign component can contribute up to 28% of the future variation in domestic industrial production, with the effect being disproportionately larger on its manufacturing component, the component contributing the most to the tradable goods sector, than on its retail sales component.</ns3:p>

Excess Labor Supply, Structural Change and Real Exchange Rate

Since China joined the World Trade Organisation in 2001, the Chinese economy has grown rapidly, especially the tradable goods sector. However, the Chinese real exchange rate did not exhibit a persistent and stable appreciation until 2005. This is a puzzling fact that is inconsistent with theories. This paper documents several stylized facts during the economic transition and argues that two features of the Chinese economy may help explain the puzzling real exchange rate pattern for the Chinese economy: i) the faster total factor productivity (TFP) growth in the export sector compared with the import sector; and ii) excess supply of unskilled labor. We construct a small open economy model with an H-O trade structure. We show that, due to heterogeneous skilled labor intensity in export and import sectors, faster TFP growth in the export sector over that in the import sector will lead to the decline of return to capital and a rise of the skilled wage. Therefore, the decrease of return to capital and the persistent low unskilled wage, which is caused by the excess supply of unskilled labor, inhibit the rise in the relative price of non-tradable goods to tradable goods and the appreciation of the real exchange rate. Furthermore, we develop a dynamic small open economy model with multiple tradable goods sectors. We show that the model does fairly well in explaining the Chinese real exchange rate and other stylized facts in the economic transition. Finally, we demonstrate that our hypotheses are supported by cross-country evidence.

Demand induced fluctuations

We build a variation of the neoclassical growth model in which households increased desire to save generate recessions. Our economy features three departures from the standard model: (1) goods markets (for nontradables) require active search from households wherein increases in consumption expenditures increase measured productivity; (2) adjustment costs make it difficult to expand the tradable goods sector by reallocating factors of production from nontradables to tradables; (3) labor markets have Nash bargaining wage setting and Mortensen-Pissarides search and matching frictions labor markets. These departures provide a novel quantitative theory to explain recessions like those in southern Europe without relying on technology shocks.

Structural changes and the real exchange rate dynamics

Since China joined the WTO in 2001, the Chinese economy has grown very rapidly, especially, the tradable goods sector. However, the Chinese real exchange rate did not exhibit a persistent and stable appreciation until 2005. This is a puzzling fact that is inconsistent with theories. This paper documents several stylized facts during the economic transition and argues that two features of Chinese economy may help explain the puzzling real exchange rate pattern for Chinese economy: (i) the faster total factor productivity (TFP) growth in export sector compared with the import sector; (ii) excess supply of unskilled labor. Our hypotheses are supported by cross-country evidence. Furthermore, we construct a small open economy model with an H-O trade structure and show that, due to heterogeneous skilled labor intensity in export and import sectors, the faster TFP growth in the export sector over that in the import sector will lead to the decline of return to capital and the rise of skilled wage. Therefore, the decrease of return to capital and the low unskilled wage, which is caused by the excess supply of unskilled labor, inhibit the rise in the relative price of non-tradable goods to tradable goods as well as the appreciation of real exchange rate. Finally, we show that a dynamic small open economy model with multiple tradable goods sectors does fairly well in explaining the Chinese real exchange rate and other stylized facts in the economic transition.

Male‐biased Demand Shocks and Women's Labour Force Participation: Evidence from Large Oil Field Discoveries

Do male‐biased labour demand shocks affect women's labour market outcomes? To study this question, we examine large oil field discoveries in the southern USA from 1900 to 1940. We find that oil wealth has an overall positive effect on female labour force participation that is driven by single women. While oil discoveries increase demand for male labour and raise male wages, they do not drive women out of the tradable goods sector or the labour force. Our findings suggest that the absence of any crowding out effects of oil wealth can be explained by compensating forces such as demand effects within the tradable sector, or by income effects that lead to growth in the non‐tradable sector.

The Determinants of Real Exchange Rates in Transition Economies

Real exchange rates in the transition region have been relatively volatile over the past two decades, with major variation across countries and over time. In most countries, there was a shift between the pre-global crisis period, when the region saw significant real appreciation of currencies, and the post-crisis period during which real exchange rates have been mostly stable or depreciating. In broad terms, real exchange rates have tended to move in line with GDP growth and productivity rates, albeit with important exceptions. Our empirical results show some support for the traditional Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis, according to which real appreciation is driven by productivity differentials in the traded goods sector. Other factors, including government consumption, terms of trade, and capital inflows, do not seem to be significant drivers of real exchange rate movements.

Efficiency wage, unemployment and tourism development: a theoretical analysis

PurposeInternational tourism has experienced a substantial growth during the second half of twentieth century. Tourism development can contribute substantially to the reduction of poverty problem by creating new employment opportunities. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effect of tourism development on unemployment problem using an efficiency wage framework.Design/methodology/approachThe authors developed a two-sector two-factor static competitive general equilibrium model of a less-developed open economy called South with an imported traded goods sector and with a non-traded tourism service sector, and with two factors, capital and labour. Labour is measured in efficiency unit; there exists unemployment in the labour market which is explained by the efficiency wage hypothesis. The authors also consider extensions of the basic model by introducing an exportable traded goods sector as well as sector-specific capital in the tourism sector.FindingsThe authors show that, with perfect intersectoral mobility of capital and with only one traded good, tourism development in South lowers unemployment rate and raises national income. However, this tourism development neither affects unemployment rate nor national income in South, in the mobile-capital model when there are two traded goods. When tourism sector uses sector-specific capital but capital is mobile between two traded goods sectors, tourism development keeps the unemployment rate unchanged but raises national income in South.Originality/valueThere exists a lot of debate about economic benefits of tourism development in a less-developed economy. A few works analyse the economic effects of tourism without developing formal models. However, no existing work analyses the effect on unemployment in an efficiency wage model. Although Harris–Todaro model is of relevance to explain unemployment in low-income countries, efficiency wage models are relevant for middle-income countries.

РЕГИОНАЛЬНАЯ ДИНАМИЧЕСКАЯ СТОХАСТИЧЕСКАЯ МОДЕЛЬ ОБЩЕГО РАВНОВЕСИЯ КАК ИНСТРУМЕНТ АНАЛИЗА ФИСКАЛЬНОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ

Using the tools of regional dynamic models for analyzing the economy of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, in particular, for studying regional business cycles is currently an urgent task. It is determined by the need to develop system conceptions about the factors, conditions and prerequisites for the development of regions, about the features and trends of the dynamics of their sector and territorial structure. The purpose of the article is to develop a dynamic stochastic multi-sector model for analyzing the effects of regional economic policy. The scientific novelty of the research concerns the development and implementation of dynamic models with microeconomic justification to formalize the processes of regional development, the sustainability of regional policy and spatial development. Similar class of models, that forms the theoretical foundation of contemporary macro-economics, is currently used for the analysis of national economy mostly. Models of such class that describe the processes in the regional economy are practically absent. The original tools for the construction of a regional dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, suggested by the authors, describe the structure of a real sector of the economy of Sverdlovsk region. Parameterization of the model was made on the empirical data basis about the economy of Sverdlovsk region for 2003–2016. The behaviour of the following economic operators has been considered in the model: households; firms operating in the real sector of economy, the regional and federal government, and the Central Bank. Fiscal multipliers for three sectors of the economy – tradable goods sector, non-tradable goods sector and resource sector have been calculated with impulse response functions. The analysis of fiscal multipliers has revealed that the shock of the effective tax rate on individual income and the sock of regional costs have the most significant effect on the output in the above considered sectors of economy among all the rest fiscal shocks. The use of the tools in the form of a historical decomposition of regional variables demonstrates the results of the impact of supply and demand shocks in a time perspective on the output in the three sectors of the regional economy. The results of temporal decomposition of the variations of the endogenous variables mentioned above suggest that the cyclic processes in the regional economy of Sverdlovsk region during the study period are largely due to factors of supply rather than demand. The research results may be used both for the analysis of the regional economic policy priorities and for the development of measures aimed at the decrease of possible crisis phenomena in the regional economy. The trend to the construction of multi-sector models of regional economy in the framework of general equilibrium approach with the macroeconomics justification and rational expectations of economic operators described in the article stresses the importance and prospects of further studies. In particular, to reflect the specifics of the regions, it is necessary to take into account the institutional factors of each region in the model. This issue is an interesting theme for further research in the field of modeling of regional social and economic systems. Keywords region, regional economic policy, dynamic stochastic model, tradable and non-tradable goods sector, resource sector, fiscal multipliers, demand shocks, supply shocks, impulse response functions, historical decomposition of variations of endogenous variables. Acknowledgements The article has been written according to the Plan of Research and Development of the Institute of Economics, the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences for 2019–2021.

Collateral Shocks and Corporate Employment*

We analyze how firm-level shocks to collateral values influence employment outcomes among US corporations. Using comprehensive employment data from the US Census Bureau, we estimate that employment expenditures increase by $0.10 per $1 increase in firms’ real estate collateral values. These effects are stronger among financially constrained firms, and additional hiring is funded through debt issuance, consistent with a collateral channel. This relation holds among firms in tradable goods sectors, alleviating concerns about local demand shocks. Thus, through a collateral lending channel, fluctuations in the US commercial real estate market are an important driver of corporate labor demand.

Determinantes de la competitividad del sector español de la informática industrial, 1995-2015: Un análisis de datos de panel

The main aim of this research is to explain the factors that govern the competitive position of the sector of industrial computing in Spain during the period 1995-2015. To achieve this objective, we adopt the Shaikh (2016) theoretical approach of the absolute cost advantage, which postulates that the real terms of exchange between nations are regulated in the long term by the real unit labor costs of the companies from tradable goods sectors. The hypothesis of the research is that the competitive position of the Spanish sector of industrial computing is determined in the long term by the relative real unit labor costs. To test this hypothesis, unit root and cointegration tests are carried out, and the Granger causality test is applied.

Deindustrialization and economic stagnation in El Salvador

This study will analyse the deindustrialization process in El Salvador. Deindustrialization has been a factor in the Latin American countries since the 1980s and contributes to economic stagnation and quality job loss. The first section reviews selected studies in the literature on this subject and is followed by an exploration of the possible causes of deindustrialization in El Salvador. The idea that remittances may have triggered a bout of Dutch disease is the first possibility to be examined, but it is then ruled out. The focus then turns to the repercussions of economic reforms carried out in the 1990s and, by estimating cointegration equations, evidence is found that the extreme form of trade liberalization that was implemented in El Salvador is the chief reason for the contraction of tradable goods sectors. The study closes with a series of recommendations and conclusions.

Competitiveness at the Country-Sector Level: New Measures Based on Global Value Chains

We propose the so-called domestic embodied unit labor (EULC) at the country-sector level as a new cost-related basis for measures of international competitiveness. EULC take into account that a sector's labor costs constitute only a small share of its total cost which to a large extent consist of expenses for intermediate goods from other sectors. In line with a simple Leontief-type model, the proposed measure is constructed as a weighted average of unit labor costs of all domestic sectors contributing to the final goods of a specific sector. The contribution is expressed in value-added terms and takes global supply chains into account.We also show how EULC can be consistently calculated for sectoral aggregates such as the tradable goods sector. Based on EULC we propose the embodied real effective exchange rate (EREER) at the country-sector level as a new competitiveness indicator where the relevance of trading partners is quantified by an appropriate value-added measure. The chosen value-added concept replaces gross exports traditionally used as the weight basis in effective exchange rates. Using the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) we employ the proposed indicators to shed new light on changes in cost competitiveness at the sectoral level for Germany, and compare the empirical evidence with selected other euro area countries.

Non-Tariff Trade Regulations in Indonesia: Nominal and Effective Rates of Protection

Non-tariff regulations on imports and exports have spread in Indonesia since 2011. I report findings of a study of many of these regulations, in which a variety of methods were used to estimate the associated nominal rates of protection. These findings were then used to estimate effective rates of protection (ERPs) across 140 tradable-goods sectors in the Indonesian economy in early 2015, taking into account also the effects of the most-favoured-nation and preferential-import tariff schedules, anti-dumping and safeguard duties, export levies, duty drawbacks and exemptions, domestic sub-sidies, and excise taxes. I find that the magnitude and dispersion of ERPs were higher in 2015 than in early 2008, for which a similar study was previously conducted, and that much of the variability was related to quantitative trade restrictions. In particular, the regulations examined boosted a measure of the cost of living by 7.6% in 2015, compared with 2.5% in 2008.

Determinants of India’s Exports

The objective of this paper is to examine the key determinants of India’s exports. The estimated equations show that the two variables influencing India’s export demand are the real effective exchange rate and world exports. The time trend variable which was introduced to take care of the stationarity problem and India’s GDP which is a proxy for availability also are statistically significant. Equations were also estimated at a disaggregated level of commodity groups. The article also focuses on measuring the relative contribution of the variables. For this, a new methodology is proposed. World exports which emerges as the dominant variable is however exogenous to Indian policy makers. This leaves nominal exchange rate as the tool available to policy makers. In the market determination of exchange rate, besides current account deficit, capital flows also play an important part. There is need to moderate the impact of large capital inflows on exchange rate through appropriate intervention so long as we continue to have current account deficit. An appreciating currency will erode the competitiveness of exports. Truly speaking, the critical factor is not so much exchange rate as competitiveness. In this context, maintaining domestic price stability and improving the productivity, particularly of the traded goods sector are equally important.