Trade Restrictions Research Articles

Financial Consequences of Geopolitical Turmoil and Trade Restrictions

Financial Consequences of Geopolitical Turmoil and Trade Restrictions

Deepening youth precarity: How the COVID‐19 pandemic impacted the livelihoods and mobility pathways of rural youth in South Sulawesi, Indonesia

AbstractIndonesia's young people renegotiate the constraints on rural‐based livelihood opportunities by participating in a diverse array of off‐farm activities, circular migration, and rural to urban mobility flows. While these strategies work to overcome the insecurity of farm‐based work, they can also introduce new forms of precarity, which are compounded when other major life events or crises occur. Drawing on a period of in‐depth qualitative research with two villages in South Sulawesi, we describe how young people were impacted by, and responded to, the mobility and trade restrictions on their daily livelihood activities during the fallout of the COVID‐19 pandemic. Travel restrictions and company layoffs forced some young people to return to their villages, where they faced limited employment prospects, while other young people remained isolated or idle in urban settings and unable to return home. Furthermore, fluctuating commodity prices and an absence of buyers for agricultural and seafood commodities led to even fewer opportunities in rural areas. The impacts of the pandemic were also gendered, as young women faced increased demands for unpaid care work, while also stepping into new markets (e.g., ginger powder) or retail work, to counter the loss of household incomes and return of male migrants. In the context of broad‐scale landscape change, declining rural opportunities, and precarious work contracts in urban areas and resource frontiers, our findings exemplify how the economic fallout of the COVID‐19 pandemic represents just one of the many crises that rural youth contend with on a daily basis.

Trump tariffs and the U.S. defense industry.

In March 2018, U.S. President Trump announced that the U.S. would start imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from most exporting countries around the world. This study explores the impact of introducing these tariffs on the equity return of U.S. defense companies. As the defense industry stands among the largest metal consumers in the U.S., it is expected that these import restrictions have deteriorated the business performance of the U.S. defense industry. For this study, a novel trade uncertainty indicator has been constructed that is based on the key events related to the invocation of Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. This section empowers the President to impose trade restrictions when the quantity of imports threatens to impair national security. My empirical analysis reveals that investors perceived the introduction of the steel and aluminum tariffs as detrimental to U.S. defense companies. The negative abnormal stock returns in the days around several key tariff-related events evidence this. Already in the period before the Department of Commerce released the findings of its investigation, investors were speculating on the possible introduction of trade barriers. However, the height of the imposed tariff exceeded their expectations since the negative sentiment was further reinforced after the official announcement of the tariff by President Trump.

The impact of climate change on Korea's agricultural sector under the national self-sufficiency policy.

Evolving environmental conditions due to climate change have brought about changes in agriculture, which is required for human life as both a source of food and income. International trade can act as a buffer against potential negative impacts of climate change on crop yields, but recent years have seen breakdowns in global trade, including export bans to improve domestic food security. For countries that rely heavily on imported food, governments may institute policies to protect their agricultural industry from changes in climate-induced crop yield changes and other countries' potential trade restrictions. This study assesses the individual and combined effects of climate impacts and food self-sufficiency policies in Korea, which is highly dependent on imports. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a global integrated assessment model, to explore (1) the direct impact of climate change on Korea's agricultural yields, (2) the full impacts of global climate change on agricultural production, including trade-induced changes due to yield changes in other regions, (3) the impacts of food self-sufficiency policy, and (4) the interactive impact of climate change and self-sufficiency policies. We find that, in Korea, the direct impact of climate change on agricultural yields would be overshadowed by the impact of global climate change due to changing trade patterns. Second, global climate change leads to a rise (rice and wheat) or a decline (soybeans) in Korean producer revenues, while simultaneously raising consumer expenditures on both staples and non-staples. Third, implementing self-sufficiency policies for wheat and soybeans in Korea boosts the nation's producer revenues, in conjunction with the effects of climate change, at the cost of additional increases in consumer expenditures for both staples and non-staples.

An Impact of Digital Services Trade Restrictiveness on Fruit Imports in Southeast Asian Countries

An Impact of Digital Services Trade Restrictiveness on Fruit Imports in Southeast Asian Countries

State management of the import substitution process in the Russian economy

At the present moment the Russian economy is being seriously influenced by foreign trade restrictions, international economic sanctions and measures of political pressure. Under these conditions the Government of Russia is using a wide range of measures to implement the import substitution policy aimed at compensating for the negative external impact. The article studies the economic essence of import substitution. The periodization of the import substitution policy in the Russian Federation has been done. Currently, the Russian economy is maintaining good dynamics in the reducing the import of foreign-made goods. For example, in 2019 the import share was 26% of the GDP, and in 2023 this indicator dropped to 19% or 32 trillion rubles. Consistent implementation of import substitution mechanisms into the structure of the national economy will ensure gradual reduction of the level of dependence of the domestic market on the foreign-made products. At present, companies operate in complicated economic conditions which are accompanied by special conditions for the performing foreign economic activity. With the consideration of these circumstances the authors have developed a model scheme of cooperation of the company management system and the import substitution policy. The proposed model allows detecting the interconnection between the government import substitution policy and the result of operation of the management system of modern companies. Company management systems vary depending on the area of their activity but when applying the existing tools of implementing the import substitution policy a company can achieve economic results of operation on the domestic market as well as in the foreign trade. Special significance in implementing the import substitution policy belongs to the management systems that deal with applying state support measures and tools. Effective functioning of company management systems with regard to the state’s import substitution policy helps to strengthen the country’s position in the world market and guarantees sustainable growth of the indicators of foreign economic activity.

Economy Wide Impact of Trade Restrictions on Exporters: Evidence Based on a New Measurement Applied to India

Significant trade barriers exist worldwide despite formal efforts at lowering these. Against this backdrop, the present article proposes to examine the economy wide impact of import restrictions on an exporting country based on a new measure for trade restrictiveness. This measure is based on tariffs, non-tariff measures (NTMs) and border trade restrictions imposed by importing countries. Using India as a case, the empirical results of the article suggest that Indian exporters have been grappling with substantial trade restrictions over the years, particularly on account of NTMs. The economy suffered welfare losses due to fall in exports, output, employment, terms of trade and loss in allocative efficiency. Tariffs and NTMs have received much attention from academia and policymakers. But, due to their relatively smaller share in trade restrictions, trading across border restrictions has received much lesser attention. However, as observed in the present article, though border restrictions appear marginal, their welfare and other macroeconomic impacts are substantial. Hence, to ignore these restrictions is likely to result in significant underestimation of trade restrictions faced by exporters. JEL Codes: F1, F13, F140

Current Insights into Porcine Bocavirus (PBoV) and Its Impact on the Economy and Public Health.

Effective control of animal infectious diseases is crucial for maintaining robust livestock production systems worldwide. Porcine meat constitutes approximately 35-40% of global meat production with the largest producers being China and the European Union (EU). Emerging viral pathogens in swine, like porcine bocavirus (PBoV), have not garnered significant attention, leaving their pathogenic characteristics largely unexplored. This review aims to bridge this knowledge gap by conducting a comprehensive analysis of the existing literature on PBoV. We explore the virus's genome structure, discovery, classification, detection methods, pathogenesis, and its potential public health implications. Additionally, we discuss the distribution and economic impact of PBoV, which includes potential losses due to decreased productivity, increased veterinary costs, and trade restrictions. By highlighting the current state of knowledge, this review seeks to enhance the understanding of PBoV, thereby aiding in its prevention and control, and mitigating its economic impact on the swine industry.

The Future of China‐Gulf Solar and Wind Supply Chains

ABSTRACTThis paper examines the medium‐term trajectory of China‐Gulf renewable energy supply chains amid growing global trade restrictions on China. The research explores how the Arab Gulf states, key collaborators in China's renewable energy sector, navigate these challenges, focusing on the dominance of China in global supply chains for solar and wind components. Using a demand‐pull, supply‐push framework, qualitative analysis assesses two potential scenarios: ‘Blue Sky’, where China‐Gulf supply chains grow stronger through ambitious renewable energy targets and expanded foreign direct investment, and ‘Sand Storm’, where geopolitical tensions and export restrictions could weaken these ties. The findings indicate that while supply chain engagement with China has risks, on balance China‐Gulf supply solar and wind technology supply chains are currently robust and projected to remain so in the future. The study concludes with policy recommendations for strengthening China's engagement with the broader Global South, highlighting opportunities for countries as they scale up domestic renewable energy deployment.

Main Trends in the Chinese Banks` Activities in Russia at the Beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan

The article analyzes the Chinese banks` activities in Russia in the first years of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025). Four subsidiaries of state-owned commercial banks (ICBC, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank), and two representative offices of China Development Bank and Export-Import Bank of China respectively, operate in the Russian market. The banks provide a full range of banking products and services primarily to companies doing business with China, including lending, accounts opening and maintaining, foreign exchange and financial transactions, and letters of credit business. The author notes a significant increase of Chinese four subsidiaries` assets during 2022–2023. Regarding the liabilities, there was also a growth in the category "amounts due to credit organizations" (other banks` LORO accounts` transactions, interbank operations), which is associated with the necessity of an increased number of client payments due the increasing volume of Sino-Russo trade turnover and restrictions on settlements on USD and EUR. These trends have contributed to the growth of both the client base and profits of Chinese subsidiaries that charge commissions for account maintenance, settlements, and, moreover, had a positive impact on the increase in the volume of settlements in national currencies. The article analyzes the structure of settlements under foreign trade contracts and draws a conclusion about the growing predominance of national currencies. The author notes that in general, Chinese financial institutions pursue a cautious credit policy, focusing on maintaining stability and leveling various risks.

Strategic alliance: The contribution of the “Belt and Road Initiative” to easing trade restrictions for Afghanistan

Afghanistan and most developing, landlocked countries must prioritize regional diplomacy and make strategic alliances to eliminate economic difficulties and create opportunities for trade, partnerships, and markets that will encourage further integration. This research aims to identify workable value chains for integration under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and evaluate their suitability by considering their potential volume. This research investigates how BRI is decreasing trade restrictions and increasing connectivity through the use of quantitative techniques and a survey research approach. The research results demonstrate that BRI can have a major impact on Afghanistan's economic situation, particularly with trade volume, trade restrictions, diplomacy, negotiations, and implementation of such kinds of projects. The Initiative has the potential to significantly reduce trade restrictions, and challenges, and enhance trade connectivity by utilizing significant infrastructure investments and investment in Afghanistan. However, security risks and political concerns prevent the BRI from achieving maximum connectivity in this country. This study contributes to thoughtful strategic alliances such as BRI can facilitate Afghanistan's trade connectivity, sustainable development, and economic integration by giving stakeholders and policymakers useful data to accomplish opportunities and know obstacles.

Implementation of the ISO 33405 requirements and production of a certified reference material for nitrofuran metabolites as incurred chicken muscle.

Certified reference materials (CRMs) contribute to the traceability of measurement results to recognized anchor points, ideally to the International System of Units (SI), and consequently, to their comparability and reliability. In the area of veterinary drugs' residues in foods of animal origin, the important role of CRMs must be highlighted, given the problems caused by trade restrictions in some countries. The results of studies concerning the certification of an incurred matrix certified reference material (IMCRM) for the mass fraction of nitrofuran metabolites in chicken muscles are presented in this work. A batch of IMCRM candidates was produced from chicken muscle samples containing the metabolites 3-amino-2-oxazolidinone (AOZ), 3-amino-5-morpholinomethyl-2-oxazolidinone (AMOZ), semicarbazide (SEM), and 1-aminohydantoin (AHD). All the statistical approaches for the homogeneity and stability assessments were based on the principles contained within ISO Guide 35 (current ISO 33405:2024). All the quantitative analyses of the nitrofuran metabolites were performed by means of high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS). The properties studied were sufficiently homogeneous and stable at -20°C for 360days (the defined storage conditions). Under transport conditions, the AOZ metabolite showed instability at 50°C. The residual moisture content was also monitored and showed instability at 20°C and 50°C. The characterization was performed via an exact matching calibration approach and the assigned values with their respective expanded uncertainties (k = 2) were 5.40 ± 1.2ngg-1, 5.49 ± 0.85ngg-1, 5.08 ± 1.2ngg-1, and 6.01 ± 0.85ngg-1 for the metabolites AOZ, AMOZ, AHD, and SEM, respectively, in the lyophilized chicken muscle. These values ranged from 1.3 to 1.5ngg-1 on a wet basis. The expiration date for the CRM was estimated based on the stated limits for future values calculated from the confidence interval of the stability study's linear regression curve.

Harnessing Probiotics to Combat Aflatoxin: A Natural Approach to Food Safety: A Review

Aflatoxins, toxic secondary metabolites produced primarily by Aspergillus flavus and Aspergillus parasiticus, are among the most significant food safety challenges worldwide. These compounds are classified as Group 1 carcinogens by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) due to their association with liver cancer, immune suppression, and acute toxicity. Aflatoxin contamination commonly affects staple food items such as grains, nuts, and seeds, particularly in regions with warm and humid climates. The economic burden of aflatoxin contamination extends to reduced agricultural productivity and trade restrictions, necessitating innovative and effective mitigation strategies. This review investigates the potential of probiotics as a natural solution to counter aflatoxin contamination. Probiotics, including strains such as Lactobacillus, Bifidobacterium, and Saccharomyces, offer several mechanisms for reducing aflatoxin toxicity. These include bioadsorption, where probiotics bind aflatoxins and limit their bioavailability in the gastrointestinal tract; biotransformation, involving the enzymatic conversion of aflatoxins into less toxic metabolites; and competitive exclusion, which inhibits the growth of aflatoxin-producing molds. Additionally, probiotics contribute to immune modulation, enhancing the host's capacity to counteract aflatoxin exposure. Applications of probiotics in food systems and animal feed are promising. For instance, integrating probiotics into fermented foods has been shown to reduce aflatoxin concentrations significantly. Similarly, probiotics in livestock feed can decrease the absorption of aflatoxins, improving animal health and the safety of derived products. Despite these advances, challenges persist, including strain-specific efficacy, regulatory hurdles, and consumer acceptance of probiotic-enhanced food products. Future research should prioritize the development of innovative probiotic applications, such as bioencapsulation technologies to enhance stability and targeted delivery systems for maximizing their efficacy. Long-term clinical studies are needed to assess the sustainability and safety of probiotic interventions for aflatoxin detoxification. By addressing these challenges, probiotics could play a pivotal role in safeguarding public health, ensuring food safety, and enhancing the resilience of food systems globally.

EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL RISKS ON THE SUPPLY CHAIN: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

Purpose- The lockdowns and restrictions imposed as part of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which first emerged in China, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its broader geopolitical implications, and tensions in other geographies have exacerbated an already problematic global supply chain situation. While freight markets have limited direct contact with Russia and Ukraine, global logistics have exposed supply chains to an increasing number of risk factors, including airspace restrictions, uncertainty about the future path of consumer demand, and China’s ongoing interventions regarding the COVID-19 process. The effects of various economic and geopolitical risks on the supply chain are the main analysis subject of this study. Methodology- In accordance with the scope of the study, the causality analysis suggested by Toda Yamamoto was applied between the Baltic Dry Cargo Index (BALTIC) and Brent oil prices (BRENT). In the study, data covering the period 2020:1-2023:12 at monthly frequency was used. In order to examine the relationship between Baltic Dry Cargo Index (BALTIC) and Brent oil prices (BRENT), data regarding the causality analysis proposed by Toda and Yamamoto are shared in tables. Extended Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test was used to analyze the data. The results are presented in tables and interpreted. Findings- The effects of risks, conflicts and crises that arise in different ways in different geographies on the supply chain are examined in detail with country examples. The problems experienced by countries against supply chain problems, steps taken towards solutions, the effects of crises experienced in the supply chain, and future scenarios are presented in detail in different regions. This study clearly states that geopolitical tensions and the pandemic have dealt a significant blow to the supply chain, and that the disruptions in the supply chain have reached a level that will leave countries helpless Conclusion In the study, the relationship between the Baltic Dry Index (BALTIC) and Brent oil prices (BRENT) was empirically examined. Contrary to studies in the literature, no significant causality relationship was found between the two variables. In the study, it was emphasized that the cost increases in the supply chain and transportation axis were not due to oil prices, but geopolitical and economic risks. Geopolitical and economic risks arise from pandemics, political instability at international borders, trade conflicts and legislative changes. Increases in risks, tariffs, trade restrictions and sanctions disrupt supply chains, increase costs and hinder market access. The increase in risks experienced in recent years has been a determinant in the disruption of supply chains and the increase in costs. Keywords: Economics, supply chain, Toda Yamamoto, geopolitical risk, cost of economic risk JEL Codes: A10, E00, R40

Embargo in the Context of Hybrid Warfare: A Case Study of Diplomatic Crisis in Qatar

This study intends to examine the embargo as a tool for waging a hybrid war using the example of the Qatar diplomatic crisis. The research suggests that the introduction of an embargo may not only be a legitimate restrictive measure under modern international law, but also a hidden tool for waging hybrid warfare. This study confirms the presence of signs of a hybrid war against Qatar, and that the embargo can act as its tool in modern conditions. Herewith, the example of the Qatar diplomatic crisis does not provide univocal proofs that the measures of trade restrictions taken were precisely the tools of an aggressive hybrid war waged against the country. At the same time, the high level of interconnectedness between the economy of Qatar and the economies of the leading Gulf countries before and after the introduction of the embargo can be considered as one of the factors exacerbating the impact of the embargo and enhancing its role as a tool of hybrid pressure. Against this background, the evidence of the genuine motives for imposing an embargo can serve as a qualifying sign of waging a hybrid war.

Assessing the Determinants of Services Exports of Pakistan An Application of Extended Gravity Model

The services sector plays a crucial role in Pakistan's economy based on its contribution to GDP and the engagement of most of the labour force with this sector. Services exports provide valuable foreign exchange earnings, and the focus on promoting services exports can resolve the balance of trade issue. Hence, this study investigates the key determinants influencing Pakistan's services exports with its major trading partners. The study employed an extended gravity model through fixed effect, random effect and Poisson-Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) methods by using data from 2000-2022 and found out that the GDP of the partner country, FDI, employment in services, logistics performance index (LPI), and services trade restrictiveness index (STRI) are important determinants of services exports in Pakistan. Pakistan is the most restrictive economy in the South Asian region which has higher STRI, resultantly the restrictions are negatively affecting the services trade and exports of the country. Moreover, the study evaluated that the USA, UAE, China, and UK are major export markets for export services of Pakistan. Based on these findings, the study suggests that Pakistan should improve its logistics infrastructure and reduce service trade restrictions to boost services exports.

EmTract: Extracting emotions from social media

We developed EmTract, an open-source tool designed to extract investor emotions from financial social media data. We contribute a novel dataset of 10,000 financial social media messages annotated with emotion labels and improve the DistilBERT model by incorporating 4861 tokens, including emojis and emoticons. This augmentation improved the model’s accuracy by over 3 percentage points compared to the standard BERT model, while providing faster inference and reduced computational requirements. Our models and datasets are publicly available to promote broader adoption and further research in financial sentiment analysis. We validated EmTract during the 2021 “meme stock” rally, where it accurately captured spikes in emotions such as anger and disgust following trading restrictions, demonstrating the model’s practical applicability in real-world events. Additionally, heterogeneity tests show that emotions have a stronger impact on smaller, more volatile, and heavily shorted stocks, aligning with established behavioral finance theories. These findings underscore the importance of integrating emotional dynamics into market analysis, particularly for speculative assets. Our contributions represent a significant step forward in understanding the psychological drivers of financial markets and offer practical tools for future research and industry applications.

What Is Prospects for Nong Khai Province Through Sino-Thai High-Speed Railway: Lessons Learned from Yunnan

High-speed rail (HSR) has become a significant catalyst for regional economic development and integration, particularly under initiatives such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This research investigates the development prospects of Nong Khai Province, Thailand, in terms of border trade facilitated by the Sino-Thai high-speed railway, drawing lessons from the impact of HSR on Yunnan Province, China. The study employs the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to prioritize key factors influencing border trade development based on insights from experts and senior executives in relevant public and private sector agencies. The findings reveal that infrastructural connectivity is the most critical factor, specifically emphasizing linking transportation systems through rail and land, improving public transport links, and developing digital infrastructure. Reduction of trade restrictions, mainly through streamlined customs procedures and tax reduction measures, is identified as the second most important factor. Human connectivity, including fast passport issuance and enhanced cultural exchanges, ranks third. Financial support mechanisms and policies promoting regional cooperation are also essential for maximizing the benefits of the high-speed rail project. By addressing these factors, Nong Khai Province can effectively leverage the opportunities presented by the Sino-Thai high-speed railway, fostering sustainable economic growth, and enhancing its role as a key player in regional trade. The study provides actionable insights and strategic recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders to optimize the economic potential of Nong Khai through improved connectivity and integration.

Green Trade Barriers in the Context of Globalization: Legal Challenges and Countermeasures

The acceleration of globalization has brought about the deepening of economic cooperation, but also triggered an urgent need for environmental protection. Green trade barriers, as a trade restriction measure in the name of environmental protection, have gradually become an important factor in international trade. Major countries and regions have widely implemented green trade barriers, which have made enterprises face complex trade obstacles and affected the international trade order and domestic industrial competitiveness. Although previous studies have explored the impact and implementation of green trade barriers, there are still certain research gaps regarding their legitimacy under the framework of international law, their actual effects on environmental protection, and their specific impacts on domestic industries. Studying the legitimacy of green trade barriers under the framework of international law will help to clarify their reasonable limits. Evaluating their actual effects on environmental protection and analyzing their impact on domestic industries will help provide a scientific basis for policy making and promote a win-win situation for the economy and the environment. This article conducts research from three aspects: current dilemma, in-depth analysis, and optimization path, to provide possible opinions and response strategies for solving the problem of green trade barriers.

The Unsettled Governance of the Dual-Use Items under Article XXI(b)(ii) GATT: A New Battleground for WTO Security Exceptions

Abstract In an era marked by the ‘technologization’ of modern warfare and the privatization of military supply chains, numerous items possess dual-use potential, capable of serving both civilian and military ends. Concurrently, governments increasingly view the acquisition of specific goods, materials, services, and technologies by rival states as a threat to their security. As a result, economic restrictions imposed on dual-use items, including export controls, have proliferated in recent years. These measures have elicited concerns regarding disguised protectionism and potential non-compliance with trade agreements. Central to the debate is the difficulty to strike a balance between addressing legitimate security imperatives and preventing economic protectionism. This article delves into the intersection of trade and security in the regulation of dual-use goods. It offers a focused examination of Article XXI(b)(ii) of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) concerning trade restrictions on products destined for military use. The paper first reveals limitations of this provision in governing the regulation of dual-use items. Furthermore, it introduces the concept of a ‘purpose test’ provided by the provision as a safeguard against abusive invocation. Lastly, it sheds light on the challenge posed by the standard of proof issue, which complicates the review and mitigation of bad-faith invocations of security exceptions.