Trade Policy Research Articles

СТАЛИЙ РОЗВИТОК ТОРГІВЛІ: ТЕОРЕТИЧНИЙ АСПЕКТ

The article highlights the theoretical aspect of sustainable trade development. It is found that trade development through more rational and efficient use of resources, production growth, increased income and investment leads to economic growth and employment. It is found that the sustainability of domestic trade is reflected primarily in its impact on human development. It is determined that the sustainable development of Ukraine's trade is laid down in the provisions of trade agreements between Ukraine and other countries and unions of countries. The author analyzes the features of the WTO agreement on sustainable trade development. The article analyzes the provisions of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement in the area of trade policy development with regard to sustainable development. It is noted that trade is key to achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals. It is found that the main direction of implementation of socio-economic management methods for sustainable trade development is performance management, which enhances the social orientation of management through the effect of activity and creates a system of motivation and incentives for labor. It has been found that trade is also important for social integration, which, along with the economy and the environment, is one of the three pillars of sustainable development. In Ukraine, environmental and sustainable development issues are poorly integrated into the process of formulating and implementing public policy, including trade policy. Therefore, environmental protection and sustainable development should be clearly enshrined in trade policy. The presence of environmental factors in a trade agreement cannot depend solely on the policies and approaches of the other party.

СТРАТЕГІЧНИЙ АНАЛІЗ ПІДПРИЄМСТВА АГРАРНОГО СЕКТОРУ

With the development of the economy and constant changes in the external environment, it became more difficult for Ukrainian agricultural enterprises to conduct their activities, especially under the influence of two factors, namely the pandemic and the war. The Ukrainian economy, companies and population had not yet recovered from the consequences of COVID-19 when a full-scale invasion began, which forever changed the realities of both the agricultural sector and entrepreneurship. Global climate changes, international trade conditions, technological development and demographic changes were also important external factors, which created new challenges and opportunities for agricultural enterprises. In this context, there is a need to carry out their strategic analysis to determine competitiveness and develop effective development strategies. However, at the moment there is a need for a more detailed study of issues related to the analysis of internal and external factors, their interrelationship and influence on strategic decision-making in the agricultural sector. Thus, the problem that needs to be solved is the development of an integrated methodological approach for the strategic analysis of agricultural enterprises, which would take into account various aspects of their functioning and the impact of changes in the external environment. The article is devoted to a strategic analysis of the agricultural enterprise «Dekoplant». Based on the performed PEST and SWOT analyses, main threats, opportunities, strengths, and weaknesses of both the internal and external environments were identified. Among the identified threats and weaknesses are changes in trade policy conditions, national legislation, currency exchange rate fluctuations (USD and Euro), a weak development strategy, and ineffective marketing platforms. The opportunities and strengths encompass heightened quality and service level demands, high product quality, a diverse range of products, extensive experience, and a large customer base. The article highlights the significance of strategic analysis for efficient enterprise management and gaining competitive advantages. Additionally, top companies in Ukraine's agricultural sector were investigated to determine key industry trends and competitiveness. The analytical approach enables well-founded recommendations for optimizing the strategy of the «Dekoplant» enterprise considering the identified internal and external threats.

Transformation of the trade policy paradigm: Theoretical and institutional aspects

Transformation of the trade policy paradigm: Theoretical and institutional aspects

Analysing Nigeria’s Trade Policies: Evolution, Achievements, and Challenges

This paper examines the trajectory of Nigeria's trade policies from the pre-independence era to the present day, highlighting their benefits and challenges. Indeed, successive Nigerian governments have implemented various policies to reduce dependence on oil and gas, seeking to diversify the economy base. While noticeable gains have been recorded in the agricultural sector and domestic manufacturing capabilities, the need for improvement is equally not doubtful. There is the strong imperative for improvements in the value-chain of agriculture, enhancement of manufacturing capabilities and efficiency, and capital investments to boost the solid minerals sector. All of these are initiatives that must be considered if the country must develop pragmatic trade policies. The globalisation of trade has clearly shown that Nigeria must move beyond implementing trade policies that are protective of its domestic industries, but to adopt those that balance its economic growth and development objectives.

Trade Liberalization and the Performance of the Manufacturing Subsector in Nigeria

Trade liberalization is a widely accepted policy for fostering economic growth, particularly in developing countries. Advocates argue that open economies, through increased competition, specialization, and access to global markets, outperform closed economies. However, the short-term effects on developing economies like Nigeria remain debated, especially within the manufacturing sector. Nigeria's trade policy has fluctuated between protectionism and openness, significantly influencing its manufacturing performance. Critics, drawing from dependency theory, argue that liberalization exposes weaker economies to exploitation by stronger nations, leading to trade imbalances and inhibiting industrial growth. This study investigates the nonlinear effects of trade liberalization on Nigeria’s manufacturing sector, addressing a gap in the literature by employing a quadratic approach to determine threshold effects. By incorporating a quadratic form of the trade variable, the study tests the hypothesis that trade liberalization initially boosts the manufacturing sector but results in diminishing returns as openness intensifies. The research is framed within the Laffer Curve of Trade, suggesting that beyond a certain threshold, excessive openness may harm the manufacturing sector. The AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is used to assess both short-run and long-run effects, with findings indicating a convex relationship between trade liberalization and manufacturing output, highlighting the critical importance of identifying optimal policy thresholds to maximize industrial growth.

Changing the Trade and Development Consensus: Evidence Building from Little, Bhagwati, Krueger, and Balassa in the 1960s

Economists became skeptical about the benefits of free trade for developing countries during the Great Depression, but in the 1960s some had come to recognize the problems with import substitution policies and the benefits of encouraging exports. This article examines how four economists who led this transition—Ian Little, Jagdish Bhagwati, Anne Krueger, and Bela Balassa—came to their views and helped build a new professional consensus on trade policy and economic development. In each case, practical experience, and empirical observation, particularly from India, helped shape their opinions, persuading two of the four to revise their previous beliefs.

Inhibiting or promoting? The impact of carbon emissions trading on corporate environmental responsibility

Carbon emissions trading (CET) policy presents a crucial market-oriented environmental strategy to shape corporate environmentally responsible behaviour. However, how market-oriented environmental strategy may affect corporate environmental responsibility remains to be further investigated. Based on the practice of China's CET, this paper investigates the impact of market-oriented environmental strategy on the environmental responsibility level of high‑carbon enterprises in China. The relevant results are threefold. 1) Contrary to conventional wisdom and CET policy expectation, China's CET policy discourages high‑carbon enterprises from fulfilling environmental responsibility, leading to an overall decrease of 32.6 % in the environmental responsibility level. 2) China's CET policy strengthens the financing constraints of high‑carbon enterprises, which makes them face a financial dilemma wherein it is challenging to balance environmental management and production operations in the absence of financial support. 3) Compared with non-state-owned enterprises and small- and micro-sized enterprises, the inhibitory effect of China's CET policy on the environmental responsibility level of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and medium- and large-sized enterprises (MLEs) is stronger, whereas the inhibitory effect of financing constraints induced by China's CET policy on the environmental responsibility level of SOEs and MLEs is weaker.

Climate change undermines seafood micronutrient supply from wild-capture fisheries in Southeast Asia and Pacific Island countries

Marine ecosystem functions are affected by climate change impacts such as ocean warming, deoxygenation and acidification. These impacts drive changes in distributions and body size of fish species and directly affect fisheries. Wild-capture fisheries are crucial for providing nutrients, livelihoods, and employment in tropical Southeast Asia and Pacific Island countries, where coastal communities are highly vulnerable to climate change. We examined the impacts of climate change on fish stocks and nutrient availability of seven key micronutrients (calcium, Omega-3 fatty acids, iodine, iron, vitamin A, vitamin B12 and zinc) in Southeast Asia, Pacific Islands, and Oceania (Australia and New Zealand). We combined micronutrient demands by local human populations with Sea Around Us reconstructed catch time series and catch projections from a dynamic bioclimate envelope model for the 21st century. The model predicted a decline in the Maximum Catch Potential (MCP) within Exclusive Economic Zones for Oceania, Pacific Islands, and Southeast Asian countries. Under the ‘strong mitigation’ scenario, catch potential reductions ranged from a decline of 54–66 % in Oceania, 58–92 % in Pacific Islands, and 65–86 % in Southeast Asia by the mid to the end of the 21st century relative to the historical period, respectively. Under the ‘no-mitigation’ climate scenario, reductions were more severe, with a decline of 55–70 % in Oceania, 66–92 % in Pacific Islands, and 70–86 % in Southeast Asia for the same time periods. Our findings indicate that Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to meet the recommended nutrient intake demand for most micronutrients through their fisheries (not considering trade or aquaculture production), except for iodine and vitamin B12. Pacific Island countries will likely follow the same pattern while Southeast Asia is expected to face worsening deficits, except for iodine and vitamin B12. This study highlights the importance of incorporating nutritional considerations of seafood into national food, trade and economic policies.

Ghanaian Small and Medium-Scale Enterprises (SMEs') Readiness for African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Implementation

This paper seeks to assess Ghanaian Small and Medium-Scale Enterprises (SMEs') readiness for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Implementation. The research instrument used to collect data was questionnaires and the study employed descriptive research design. The study randomly selected 250 SMEs from a population of 480 SMEs that were registered members of the Ghana National Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Cape Coast Branch and operating within manufacturing, pharmaceutical, herbal, tourism, hospitality, food and beverage, agribusiness, garment, leather, and textiles. Data collected from the SMEs was analysed using SPSS, version 28. The findings from the study shows that, there is a significant gap between Ghanaian SMEs' readiness for AfCFTA implementation. The study finds out that although majority of SMEs are capable of innovation and developing new products, they also have limited knowledge of export documentation, trade information and infrastructure, trade finance, and funding for expansion. They also have low knowledge and lack a basic understanding of the benefits of AfCFTA, its advantages, components, protocols, and Rules of Origin. The study again revealed that the obstacles facing Ghanaian SMEs exportation are high cost of production, border delays, poor infrastructure, high inflation, difficulty in accessing credit, and language problems. Based on these findings, the study recommended that SMEs needs to be retooled particularly in the area of AfCFTA Rules of Origin, its objectives, components, and Ghana’s trade policy to improve their readiness for AfCFTA implementation. Again, businesses should concentrate more on value addition, and be dedicated to looking for ways to enhance their current or existing products to outperform comparable products from other African nations.

An import(ant) price of Brexit uncertainty

We estimate the impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on CES import price indices, focusing on the implications of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit). Our analysis reveals that a higher probability of Brexit increases U.K. import price indices by raising the prices of existing products and reducing product variety from the E.U. We find evidence that the risk of higher import protection from the 2016 referendum increased current import price indices by 11 log points. This amounted to a 2 log point increase in manufactured goods prices and a 0.6 log point decrease in consumers’ real income.

Natural resources and sustainable development: Evidence from the dynamic correlation between crude oil and gold market

Amidst the uncertainty in markets spurred by globalization and technological advancements, the volatility of the crude oil and gold markets, which are emblematic of natural resource markets (NRMs), profoundly impacts global economic sustainability. This study innovatively quantifies and contrasts the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty factors on the volatility and dynamic correlation of these pivotal NRMs by extending the GJR-GARCH-MIDAS-X and DCC-MIDAS-RC-X models grounded in global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU), trade policy uncertainty (TPU), monetary policy uncertainty (MPU), and geopolitical risk (GPR). Concurrently, employing principal component analysis (PCA) blends numerous uncertainty factors, heightening the models’ explanatory capacity and predictive precision. Empirical findings suggest that all uncertainty factors exert significant positive effects on both crude oil and gold volatility, albeit with heterogeneity. Furthermore, the correlation between crude oil and gold fluctuates over time under the influence of uncertainty factors. Additionally, this study revealed asymmetric effects on realized volatility between the two NRMs. This research not only provides novel theoretical insights and empirical evidence concerning the intricate dynamic interplay between the two NRMs, but also has significant ramifications for policymakers, market regulators, and investors in crafting effective strategies and decisions amidst market uncertainty.

Die neue Geoökonomik und ihre Auswirkungen auf den Wirtschaftsstandort

Abstract Geopolitical rivalries create mistrust between trading partners. These try to guard themselves against the opportunistic abuse of trade policy by de-risking and de-coupling. Indeed, first empirical evidence points towards an increasing division of the world economy into an US-centered and a China-centered block. Western sanctions against Russia have strongly accel-erated this tendency. Increased fragmentation disincentivizes corporate strategies based on serving foreign markets by exports and favors local-for-local models. This endangers value-added creation in small, open economies such as Austria. Countermeasures must include deepening the European Single Market, striking trade agreements with aligned and neutral countries, and promoting cost efficiency of European production.

How to combine different types of prefabricated components in a building to reduce construction costs and carbon emissions?

In the context of industrialized construction and carbon emission reduction globally, prefabrication has gained considerable attention. However, most studies cared the carbon emissions and construction costs from the perspective of a whole prefabricated building rather than the prefabricated components. It makes it difficult to understand the role of prefabricated components play and make improvements from the prefabricated components level. To fill this gap, this study proposes a model to optimize the selection and combination of prefabricated components in a building project to simultaneously reduce the construction costs and carbon emissions. Six common component types were considered: shear wall, beam, floor slab, stair, balcony, and air-conditioning slab. Their costs and carbon emissions were quantified when adopting prefabrication and cast-in-situ technologies. To obtain the optimal solution, we developed an improved multi-objective mayfly algorithm (IMOMA), which incorporates enhanced circle chaos mapping and a global best guiding strategy to generate Pareto solution sets. The performance of IMOMA was evaluated using the Zitzler-Deb-Thiele series test functions, demonstrating its advantages in convergence, diversity, and comprehensive performance through metrics such as generation distance, diversity metric Δ, and inverse generational distance. A case study validated the effectiveness of this proposed method, demonstrating an average reduction of 9.05% in total construction costs and 8.04% in carbon emissions when compared to the initial scheme. Further study revealed that different prefabrication rates correspond to different optimal components combination schemes, with different trends in the costs and carbon emission curves as the prefabrication rate increases. Additionally, carbon trading policies influence the components combination, with construction costs reduced by 10.88% at a carbon trading price of 42.80 CNY/t CO2eq. This study provides valuable guidance for general contractors to design optimal component combinations and for governments to promote the sustainable development of prefabricated construction.

Особенности торговой политики Китая: текущее состояние и направления развития

This article analyzes the current state, main instruments, and directions of development of China's trade policy in the context of the confrontation between the two global economic leaders, China and the USA. Understanding the meaning that China embeds in the concept of "trade policy" will enable Russia to perceive the logic of China's decisions and effectively build cooperation with China in the economic sphere and the related ones. The aim of this study is to identify the peculiarities of China's trade policy. To achieve this, the article examines the main indicators and instruments of China's trade policy, considers the current viewpoints of Chinese economists on trade policy, and analyzes activities concerning its implementation. Particular attention is given to the methods China uses to increase its influence in the global economy. The findings demonstrate that through its trade policy, China aims not only to enhance its economic power but also to shape new global rules and standards, reflecting its aspiration for leadership in international economic relations. China’s tariff system and the enforcement of non-tariff measures effectively protect its domestic market from foreign competition and encourage investments in the development of competitive high-technology production on the global market. The article shows that in China, the concept of "trade policy" encompasses a broader set of tools and measures than the commonly accepted tariff and non-tariff measures. Within its trade policy framework, China addresses a range of tasks, from the internationalization of the national currency to uniting developing countries and gaining priority in setting technical standards for goods and services. It is shown that China has been working in this direction for several decades, specifically since the early 2000s.

Corporate Social Responsibility on Labour under the European Union - Vietnam Free Trade Agreement and Policy Implications for Vietnam

The article provides an in-depth understanding of the commitment to corporate social responsibility (CSR) on labour under the new generation of free trade agreements (FTAs) of the European Union (EU) in general and the Vietnam - EU Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) in particular. Accordingly, this article clarifies the evolution of CSR commitments in the EU's new generation of FTAs via the EU's foreign and trade policies. On that premise, the article conducts a comprehensive examination of the nature of CSR commitments related to labour in EVFTA. The article also examines current legislation of the EU and its member states. Then, it proposes a variety of policy implications for Vietnam and other developing nations to implement CSR commitments in the context of global sustainable development.

The Potential for High‑tech Exports from Selected EU Member States to China and the Related Opportunities Arising from the Belt and Road Initiative

The EU’s economic relations with China are characterised by a significant trade deficit. Enhancing EU exports of high-tech products, in particular, to China is the best way out of this imbalance. In doing so, EU countries can take advantage of the opportunities provided by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that intends to improve connectivity between Europe and Asia. Objective: This study aims to identify the untapped potential for high-tech exports of selected EU countries in trade with China and to evaluate the opportunities arising from the BRI in utilising this potential. Research Design & Methods: To assess the overall high-tech export potential of selected EU countries to China, the export gap was calculated using the concept of revealed comparative advantages. Findings: Among the examined EU countries, Hungary and the Czech Republic were found to have the greatest high-tech export growth potential to China. The largest export gaps were recorded in electrical machinery and equipment. Implications & Recommendations: The findings of the study can be used by European businesses to adjust their export strategies. It can also be used by government institutions of the studied countries when designing their economic and trade policies, particularly vis-à-vis China and the BRI initiative, within the field of supporting infrastructure projects, as well as high-tech industries. Contribution & Value Added: The study contributes to the literature on the potential of EU export growth to China that has not been sufficiently explored yet. The novelty of the study is in identifying specific high-tech commodities with the highest potential for export to China.

Bilateral Trade Welfare Impacts of India’s Export Ban of Non-Basmati Rice Using the Global Partial Equilibrium Simulation Model (GSIM)

India, the world’s leading rice exporter, banned the export of non-Basmati white rice, accounting for 25% of its total exports (or 10% of the global rice trade). The ban aims to ensure availability to domestic Indian consumers and reduce domestic market prices, impacting global rice market accessibility, consumers, and producers across twelve regions. The study utilized the global simulation model (GSIM) to analyze the effects of trade restrictions on industries. The model uses national product differentiation to assess trade policy changes at global, regional, or national scales. It examined importer and exporter effects on trade values, tariff revenues, exporter surplus, and importer surplus. It found that India’s Voluntary Export Restraint (VER) ban on non-Basmati rice resulted in a higher local price and a negative global net welfare impact of USD 1.7 billion. The losses decreased to USD 1.4 billion when importing countries responded by reducing rice import tariffs by 25% and USD 1.1 billion when importing countries reduced tariffs by 75%. Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, North Africa, and the Gulf Cooperation Council regions were most affected. The study also found minimal impact on consumer surplus in India due to inelastic rice demand.

Tariff Negotiations Under Free Trade Agreements: The Case of Mongolia and the Republic of Korea

One of the principal reasons for the establishment of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) between countries is to negotiate the reciprocal reduction and/or elimination of customs tariffs. According to Mongolian law, the Customs General Administration of Mongolia (CGAM) is responsible for determining the optimal rate and amounts of customs duties. As such, it plays a leading role in the negotiation of tariffs and the implementation of FTAs with partner countries. This paper examines the legal text of tariff negotiations and the modality of reducing tariffs, and determines specific goods of interest for tariff negotiations within the framework of the agreement between Mongolia and the Republic of Korea (ROK), based on analysis of the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index. The results of the analysis show that, during the negotiation process, Mongolia should focus on textiles and apparel, as well as agricultural production, while the ROK should concentrate on automobiles, items of machinery and their parts, tobacco, cosmetics and noodles. This study should prove useful to Mongolian Customs experts and tariff negotiation team members, trade policy makers and domestic producers.

A Study on Remanufacturing Supply Chain Decision-Making Considering Greenness Under Carbon Trading Policy

The aim of this paper is to study the impact of carbon trading system and product greenness on remanufacturing strategy, so a Stackelberg game model is constructed to consider a remanufacturing supply chain consisting of a manufacturer and a third-party remanufacturer under carbon trading policy. Through theoretical analysis and numerical simulation, the relationship between decision variables such as product greenness, price of new products and remanufactured products is analyzed. It is found that: the level of carbon emission reduction is conducive to increase the price of new products and remanufactured products; under certain conditions, a stronger green market demand is conducive to increase the greenness of the products and the profits and prices of the remanufacturing supply chain members; an increase in the investment in green technology will lead to a decrease in the manufacturer's profit and the greenness of the products, and even reduce the price of the products under certain conditions; and under certain conditions, the carbon trading price is effective in regulating the price of new products and the price of the products. Under certain conditions, the carbon trading price can effectively regulate the price of new products and remanufactured products, while the greenness of products will decrease with the increase of carbon trading price.

The Effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on China’s Trade, Tariff Revenue and Welfare

Increasing attention is being paid to the role of regional economic integration in facilitating a country's trade. This is especially true for the state like China, which has the second largest GDP in the world. This study explores the effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on China, looking at changes in welfare, trade creation, trade diversion, and tariff revenue under four tariff reduction scenarios with RCEP members. The study evaluates how RCEP affects China's trade relations with Japan, Korea, ASEAN, Australia, and New Zealand by using the World Bank's World Integrated Trade Solution Software for Market Analysis and Restrictions on Trade (WITS-SMART) tool. The findings demonstrate increased market accessibility and competitiveness of commodities in the Chinese market, with notable increases in trade creation and diversion, especially with Korea and Japan. RCEP considerably increases welfare even though it results in lower tariff revenues, indicating that the advantages of lower trade costs and more effective supply chains exceed the fiscal drawbacks. The paper concludes with policy recommendations that emphasize the need for strategic adaptations in China’s trade policies to fully capitalize on the economic opportunities presented by RCEP, ensuring sustainable growth and the equitable distribution of trade benefits among all member states.