Trade Policy Measures Research Articles

The effects of the trade policy measures implemented by the USA and the EU on the Turkish steel industry

Sanayi üretiminin ana girdilerinden olan çelik ürünlerinin tüketimi ülkelerin gelişmişlikleri ile paralellikler teşkil etmektedir. İnşaat, otomotiv, beyaz eşya, enerji, makina vb. birçok sanayi sektöründe kullanılan çelik ürünleri temel girdi durumundadır ve bu sebeple ekonomik açıdan stratejik sektörler arasında gösterilmektedir. 21. yüzyılda sıvı çelik üretimi gelişmiş ülkelerde düşüş eğilimi göstermektedir, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde ise artış eğilimindedir. Başta AB ve ABD olmak üzere, gelişmiş ülkeler de üretimlerindeki bu düşüş eğiliminin önüne geçmek ve iç pazarlarını korumak için ticaret politikası önlemlerine başvurmaktadırlar. Böylelikle çelik ithalatlarını kontrol altına alırken, üretim açısından mevcut durumu koruma veya iyileştirme beklentisindedirler. Nitekim dünyada en fazla korumacılık önlemi uygulanan sektörlerden biri de yine çelik sektörüdür. Korumacılık önlemleri kapsamında vergi ve/ya kota uygulamaları ön plana çıkmaktadır. Türkiye sıvı çelik üretiminde ve çelik ihracatında dünyanın önemli ülkeleri arasında yer almakta olup söz konusu önlemelere sıklıkla maruz kalmaktadır. Özellikle 2015-2020 yılları arasında ABD, geçmiş yıllarda Türkiye’nin en fazla çelik ihracatı yaptığı ülke iken son yıllarda ABD hükümetinin uyguladığı Section 232 kapsamındaki %25 verginin Türkiye aleyhine iki katına çıkartılması nedeniyle bu süre zarfında Türkiye’nin ABD’ye çelik ihracatı durma noktasına gelmiş; Türkiye için uygulanan ilave %25 verginin kaldırılmasını takiben ihracat hacimleri normalleşme sürecine girmiştir ancak vergi öncesi dönemdeki seviyelere ulaşamamıştır. Diğer yandan AB’de uygulanan kotalar sebebiyle de Türkiye’nin bu bölgeye ihracatı sınırlandırılmış ve bu durum da istatistiklere olumsuz olarak yansımıştır. Türk çelik sektörü bu dönemde pazar çeşitlendirmesini gerçekleştirebilmiştir. Türkiye’nin ihracatında önemli yere sahip geleneksel pazarları olarak nitelendirilen ABD ve AB pazarlarında yaşanan daralma, alternatif pazarlar olarak görülen Güneydoğu Asya, Batı Afrika ve Latin Amerika pazarları ile telafi edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin 2015-2020 yılları arasında gerçekleştirdiği çelik ihracatı incelenmekte, ABD ve AB’nin ticaret politikası önlemlerinin, kendi iç pazarlarındaki üretim, ihracat ve ithalatına etkisi analiz edilmektedir.

The Effects of Protectionist Policies in Romania

Protectionism is an economic doctrine that consists of protecting the national economy by limiting or prohibiting the import of foreign products. A country can filter foreign exchange through various protectionist, tariff (involves the use of customs barriers) and non-tariff (using barriers such as quotas, technical rules, administrative formalities, etc.). Governments resort to trade policy measures in a wide variety of situations: to balance the balance of payments, for a better allocation of resources (by promoting certain industries or sectors considered promising), to redistribute the national income, etc. Most commonly, however, they are used when domestic industries cannot cope with external competition. The main cause is their lack of competitiveness concerning foreign producers. For this reason, states often prefer to protect their domestic industries through trade policy measures, despite the negative effects they have on the economy as a whole. This paper outlines some issues specific to protectionist theories in foreign trade and their impact on a small country like Romania also protectionist theories, trade policies, and arguments in support of and against protectionism.

DOMINANT STRATEGIC TRADE POLICY

In implementing trade policy measures, governments usually select from a range of instruments including quotas, subsidies (explicit or implicit) and tariffs. In this paper we consider the potential gain of a government pursuing a two-part trade policy: an import license for entry, along with a per-unit tariff on imports. The model is a three-step game between home and foreign countries in the Cournot duopoly. The paper demonstrates that two-part trade policy is dominant.

Agriculture trade policy measures and geopolitics in major regional trading blocs: Policy advocacy

AbstractTrading blocs are usually groups of countries in specific regions that manage and endorse trade activities. The present status of agricultural support, tariff, and non‐tariff measures of WTO members has critical issues for debate on trade policy. The study is a quantitative analysis and framework of geopolitical effects of WTO measures on the most significant regional trading blocs and global agriculture. The study found that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) trading blocs were highly supporting the agricultural sector followed by South Asian Free Trade Area in terms of total support estimates, whereas reverse trends in terms of producer support estimates. North American Free Trade Agreement imposed the highest number of sanitary and phytosanitary measures, technical barriers to trade, anti‐dumping, countervailing, and special safeguards. However, ASEAN trading bloc imposed more number of safeguards and quantitative restrictions. European Free Trade Area and Common Market of the South, South American Regional Economic Organization trading blocs imposed higher tariff rate quotas and export subsidies, respectively. India gave more price advantage to domestic goods. The United States and the European Union imposed higher tariffs on both agriculture and non‐agriculture sectors. Globally, most of the countries' Agricultural Orientation Index (AOI) has less than unity indicating not giving priority to agriculture in budget allocation except for South Korea and Switzerland. These findings will have significant impact on world trade negotiations, world trading rules, designing WTO agreements or policies or programs, multilateral agreements.

Strategic Narratives in Global Trade Politics: American Hegemony, Free Trade, and the Hidden Hand of the State

Abstract The characterization of the United States as a liberal hegemon seeking to uphold free-market capitalism against the illiberal state capitalism of China and other emerging powers has become commonplace, along with the attendant notion that American economic openness has been exploited by the unfair trade practices of other states. Given their dominance in US political discourse and role in shaping contemporary policy—including fuelling Trump’s trade wars and aggressive unilateral trade actions against all of the United States’ major trading partners, his attacks on the World Trade Organization, and talk of a “new Cold War” between the United States and China—these claims merit far greater scrutiny. In this article, I challenge the stark dichotomy frequently drawn between American “free-market capitalism” and the “state capitalism” of its emerging challengers, arguing that this forms part of a strategic narrative deployed for political purposes, including legitimating the United States’ use of aggressive trade policy measures. An examination of the American hegemon’s actual trade and industrial policies complicates this characterization. Despite presenting itself as a promoter and defender of free trade, I show that the unifying logic of US trade policy has always been the promotion of American economic interests: the United States has engaged in considerable state intervention and trade protectionism, both to shield vulnerable industries and support others to achieve and maintain their global dominance.

The trade policy response to COVID-19 and its implications for international business

Purpose This paper aims to explore trade policy measures taken in response to COVID-19 and analyses in detail their extent and nature. It assesses their compatibility with World Trade Organisation (WTO) agreements: specifically, whether they were necessary and justifiable efforts to protect the security and health of populations and asks how this widespread recourse to trade barriers may impact on international business? Design/methodology/approach This paper analyses an extensive database from the International Trade Centre of trade measures taken in response to COVID-19. It differentiates by type of country, nature and coverage of measures (imports or exports, type of product…). On the basis of existing jurisprudence, this paper analyses whether restrictive measures were likely to be judged legal under WTO rules. Findings This paper finds that, although the majority of trade measures are probably justifiable, there were nevertheless many measures whose coverage and/or nature was such that a justification under existing WTO exceptions is, at the very least, arguable. Such widespread and intense instigation of potentially WTO incompatible measures in such a short period of time undoubtedly undermines the global trade rules on which international business has relied for decades. Originality/value There is little existing analysis of the legality of measures taken under the security exceptions and no substantial analyses of the measures taken in response to COVID-19. Furthermore, little scholarly attention has been paid to the impacts on international business of the increasing use of WTO “exceptions” to justify trade measures to protect national industries and populations.

Improving The Electronic Commerce Development In The Republic Of Uzbekistan

The article there consideredforeign experience in the development of electronic commerce on the basis ofthe study of scientific and methodological aspects of the organization and functioning of e-commerce system and revealed possibilities of its application in the Republic of Uzbekistan. There also studied factors affecting development of e-commerce and correlation-regression model of predicting the improvement of trade in virtual environment. There identified main directions of increasing the efficiency of e-commerce development in the country and additional information on identified subjects or objects of information exchange in order to differentiate the access to the resources and detect the level of privileges of the subject. Reliability service implements maintenance of indisputability of the subject from participation of evidence or facts on the basis of cryptographic verification. And the article were shows the modern requirements of business there proposed to implement such measures of government regulation as licensing activities, standardization and certification of funds and insurance of electronic commerce entities (elements of unification of state regulation) besides the measures of fiscal, money-and-credit, and international trade policy. It’s essential to pay particular attention to the security of electronic transactions. In work we discuss about the issues of structural transformations and development of the sphere of information and communication technologies have been investigated in the Republic of Uzbekistan.

Globalization of EU Trade Policy in the COVID-19 Era

Research background: The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the shape of economic globalization as well as the position of world trade within it. Nation states and several customs unions will have to update their trade policy accordingly to the changing situation. The need for trade policy update is especially related to the EU as one of the most important actors in the world economy. Purpose of the article: This article deals with the priorities of EU trade policy during the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors assess what kind of changes occurred to EU’s trade policy during the first eight months (February to September 2020) since the outbreak of the COVID-19 in Europe. Furthermore, the authors also assess the penetration of unusual protectionist measures into the practical execution of EU’s trade policy. Methods: Our approach is built on a content analysis of various trade policy documents from EU and WTO. In this undertaking we also critically reflect on specific trade policy measures already adopted by the European Commission since the global outbreak of COVID-19. Findings & Value added: The article aims to be one of the first of its kind to analyze the changes caused by COVID-19 to the formation of EU trade policy. The paper concludes that during the first eight months of the pandemic, the EU trade policy followed the liberal path and protectionist measures were applied scarcely. However, in the future, EU will have to deal with increasing protectionist pressures from both internal and external environment.

Changes in world trade and trade policy in the time of the COVID-19 pandemic: challenges and opportunities for Ukraine

The article analyzes the trends of world trade and features of trade policies across the world during the period of economic restrictions imposed to prevent the spread of COVID-19. It also analyzes the development of Ukraine’s foreign trade and trade policy measures, which are applied by the government in the pandemic. Based on the identification of challenges and opportunities for the development of this country’s foreign trade during this pandemic and the analysis of forecasts and recommendations of international organizations, the authors substantiate proposals on the directions of Ukraine’s trade policy with an emphasis on the agri-food market A comparison of world trade developments in 2020 and 2021 forecasted by international organizations is made in the article. In the first half of 2020, the world trade development was closer toward the optimistic scenario of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the World Bank scenario, but the expected second wave of the pandemic may return the world trade trend to the WTO pessimistic scenario, where the world trade could be reduced by 31,9% in 2020. The development of Ukraine's foreign trade also shows a trend close toward the more optimistic scenarios of international organizations - in the first half of 2020 the country’s foreign trade volume only decreased by 10.6% compared to the first half of 2019. In the article, the main channels of the COVID-19 impact on the world trade are indicated, namely: reduction of the production of goods and services due to restrictions on economic activity imposed by countries, disruption of global value chains, rising commercial costs, sharp decline in services, and price decrease of goods with low degree of processing. As in the rest of the world, the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine are largely mitigated by the spread of digital technologies in trade, and conversely, the pandemic stimulates their development. Already in the second quarter of 2020, Ukraine’s exports of ICT services resumed growth and exceeded the pre-crisis level of the fourth quarter of 2019. The authors identify advantages and issues of accelerated digitalization of trade in the pandemic. The protection measures introduced by countries, including Ukraine, after the spread of coronavirus, are analyzed, with an emphasis on policy measures related to agri-food trade. It is proved that the limit of wheat exports during the pandemic is the result of annual memorandum of grain market players, so it cannot be considered a policy measure restricting trade. It was also proved that the ban on the export of buckwheat introduced by the Ukrainian government, which expired on July 1, 2020, had of a rather political nature, since the supply of buckwheat on the domestic market and the level of consumer prices for this product were guaranteed by import deliveries. This conclusion applies to other goods of significant social importance, whose imports increased significantly during the pandemic, especially for products of animal origin. The directions of the formation of Ukraine’s trade policy in the conditions of world trade changes and trade policies revision are determined. The spread of the trend towards country self-sufficiency in food will lead to a reduction in food chains, a decrease in import dependence, an increase in state support and, as a result, a strengthening of competitive position of domestic producers. Therefore, full and timely financing of state budgetary programs to support agriculture in Ukraine is of particular importance. In order to strengthen the competitiveness of small and medium-sized agricultural producers in the context of the accelerated digitalization of trade as a result of the pandemic, it is necessary to rapidly develop the infrastructure that provides rural areas with high-speed fixed broadband Internet access. Along with the spread of protectionism in world trade, there is an opposite trend of liberalization of agri-food markets, typical for food-importing countries. Thus, the countries-exporters of agri-food products, which include Ukraine, will have easier access to the markets of these countries, new markets will open, and the situation on export markets will improve.

PRIORITY FORMATS OF TRADE INTEGRATION OF COUNTRIES

Abstract. The study is devoted to the problem of trade integration of countries, in the context of globalization, the development of foreign trade is one of the main factors in the competitiveness of the national economy. Partnership with the EU is strategic for Ukraine. The aim of the study is to reveal the key characteristics and manifestations of the asymmetric development of trade integration of Ukraine and the EU and to identify priority areas of trade and economic cooperation. The object of the study is the process of trade integration of countries on the example of Ukraine with the EU. Methods, measures and tools of trade and economic cooperation between Ukraine and the EU in the context of integration are the subject of the study. The study is devoted to the characteristics of the partnership between Ukraine and the European Union in the context of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), which came into force on September 1, 2017 and is part of the Association Agreement. The dynamics of indicators of Ukraine’s economy development and foreign trade sphere is quantitatively estimated. An analysis of relations between Ukraine and the EU was conducted and it was concluded that the EU is a priority partner of Ukraine, as on average 42% of Ukraine’s goods and services are exported to Europe in recent years. The existing asymmetries of trade and economic integration of Ukraine and the EU, which are manifested in technological disproportion, raw material exports from Ukraine and high-tech imports, a negative balance and the constant growth of the negative trade balance of Ukraine are pointed out. To assess the effectiveness of Ukraine’s trade policy measures in terms of the DCFTA, a gravity model was built, which allowed to state that bilateral trade between the EU and Ukraine is more elastic than the dynamics of economic growth of EU GDP and less elastic than the dynamics of Ukraine’s GDP. The study confirmed that the DCFTA between Ukraine and the EU has already significantly affected the growth of trade turnover between these countries. The main integration opportunities and threats of cooperation between Ukraine and the EU have been identified. The main tools of trade integration are highlighted and the priority goals of trade integration of countries are identified in our study of Ukraine and the EU. Keywords: trade integration, trade policy, DCFTA, FTA, globalization, international trade. Formulas: 2; fig.: 1; tabl.: 4; bibl.: 19.

Зміни у світовій торгівлі та торговельній політиці в умовах пандемії COVID-19: виклики і можливості для України

The article analyzes the trends of world trade and features of trade policies across the world during the period of economic restrictions imposed to prevent the spread of COVID-19. It also analyzes the development of Ukraine’s foreign trade and trade policy measures, which are applied by the government in the pandemic. Based on the identification of challenges and opportunities for the development of this country’s foreign trade during this pandemic and the analysis of forecasts and recommendations of international organizations, the authors substantiate proposals on the directions of Ukraine’s trade policy with an emphasis on the agri-food market. A comparison of world trade developments in 2020 and 2021 forecasted by international organizations is made in the article. In the first half of 2020, the world trade development was closer toward the optimistic scenario of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the World Bank scenario, but the expected second wave of the pandemic may return the world trade trend to the WTO pessimistic scenario, where the world trade could be reduced by 31,9% in 2020. The development of Ukraine's foreign trade also shows a trend close toward the more optimistic scenarios of international organizations - in the first half of 2020 the country’s foreign trade volume only decreased by 10.6% compared to the first half of 2019. In the article, the main channels of the COVID-19 impact on the world trade are indicated, namely: reduction of the production of goods and services due to restrictions on economic activity imposed by countries, disruption of global value chains, rising commercial costs, sharp decline in services, and price decrease of goods with low degree of processing. As in the rest of the world, the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine are largely mitigated by the spread of digital technologies in trade, and conversely, the pandemic stimulates their development. Already in the second quarter of 2020, Ukraine’s exports of ICT services resumed growth and exceeded the pre-crisis level of the fourth quarter of 2019. The authors identify advantages and issues of accelerated digitalization of trade in a pandemic. The protection measures introduced by countries, including Ukraine, after the spread of coronavirus, are analyzed, with an emphasis on policy measures related to agri-food trade. It is proved that the limit of wheat exports during the pandemic is the result of annual memorandum of grain market players, so it cannot be considered a governmental measure restricting trade. It was also proved that the ban on the export of buckwheat introduced by the Ukrainian government, which expired on July 1, 2020, had of a rather socio-political nature, since the supply of buckwheat on the domestic market and the level of consumer prices for this product were guaranteed by import deliveries. This conclusion applies to other goods of significant social importance, whose imports increased significantly during the pandemic, especially for products of animal origin. The directions of the formation of Ukraine’s trade policy in the conditions of world trade changes and trade policies revision are determined. The spread of the trend towards country self-sufficiency in food will lead to a reduction in food chains, a decrease in import dependence, an increase in state support and, as a result, a strengthening of competitive position of domestic producers. Therefore, full and timely financing of state budgetary programs to support agriculture in Ukraine is of particular importance. In order to strengthen the competitiveness of small and medium-sized agricultural producers in the context of the accelerated digitalization of trade as a result of the pandemic, it is necessary to rapidly develop the infrastructure that provides rural areas with high-speed fixed broadband Internet access. Along with the spread of protectionism in world trade, there is an opposite trend of liberalization of agri-food markets, typical for food-importing countries. Thus, the countries-exporters of agri-food products, which include Ukraine, will have easier access to the markets of these countries, new markets will open, and the situation on export markets will improve.

Export Promotion in Peru: A Historical Review

Since the Spanish conquest, Peru stopped being autonomous and joined the emerging economy of world capitalism. That is, it ceased to be a closed economy and with it two new variables appeared in its economy: exports and imports. The transition to an independent nation did not essentially change this condition of open economy, which was reinforced by the process of globalization of the second half of the 20th century.In this regard, exports have been a significant variable for the economy, for better or for worse. For good, when the international demand generated better prices that were naturally favorable for Peru. To the bad, when international crises generated internal crises in Peru expressed in an economic contraction. To this has been added the problem of the competitiveness of our exports. This is where the government has tried to favor export expansion with trade policy measures, which have focused on protecting exporters and spreading the benefits of our export products, especially non-traditional manufactured products.The objective of this article is to analyze the main norms given by the government, trying to improve the competitiveness of our exports, since the 70s.

Simultaneous equation model for Indian sugar sector

India is the second-largest producer and consumer of sugar and sugarcane-based products. Changes in sugar production in India affect domestic and global markets of sugar and related industries. In this paper, a simultaneous equation model is developed to understand the interrelationship between sugar supply and demand in India using time-series data over 44 years from 1970–1971 to 2013–2014. Three-stage least square regression model was used to estimate the elasticities of supply and demand equations of sugar. Results revealed that price of sugar affected sugar supply positively and demand negatively. Recovery rate and amount of cane crushed have positive relationship with sugar production. Changes in current year area harvested, yield and FRP determine the future area under sugarcane cultivation. Rainfall and technology have supported to increase the yield. Sugar consumption has direct relationship with population rate. These results suggest that technological development, external trade and appropriate sugar policy measures are the primary choice to resolve the sugar complexities in future.

Подходы к оценке уровня цифровизации и мер цифровой торговой политики

Digital technologies and their role in global economic development have been increasing the past two decades. Digitalization has changed many aspects of human society. It had a significant impact on business processes in international trade, reducing costs, increasing the value and speed of cross-border transactions. E-commerce is becoming the most important engine for economic growth. The article examines new digitalization trends in the context of the international trade development. Among the key trends caused by digitalization and affecting international trade, it highlights the following: 1) expanding of globally e-commerce sales and the world marketplaces turnover; 2) increasing the value of international trade in ICT goods and services, and digitally-deliverable services; 3) growth of world exports in services by mode 1 of supply, i.e. cross border supply. The problem of assessing the level of digitalization of the economy and its impact on trade is becoming more and more urgent. Many leading international organizations including OECD, WTO, IMF, UNCTAD are working on developing universal approaches to the formation of terminology in the field of digitalization of trade, measuring digital trade and classifying economic sectors depending on the level of digitalization. The study draws particular attention to these issues. The authors have systematized an extensive list of international indices. The first cluster includes indices characterizing the level of e-commerce markets development. The second cluster contains indices that assess the development of information and communication technologies. Finally, the third cluster of indices assesses penetration of digital technology into economy and life. Indices that assess digital trade policy measures were also examined

Effects of Paperless Trade Policy and Aid for Trade on Export Performance: Evidence from SASEC And CAREC Countries

The study aims to investigate the causal effect of cross-border paperless trade policy reforms and aid for trade on export performance in 14 Asian developing countries. Sample countries are selected based on membership of the South Asia Sub-regional and Economic Cooperation (SASEC) and Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC). This study uses annual panel data from 2005 to 2017, exploits the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) Trade Facilitation Measures survey data to sort out the pre-treatment and post-treatment period of the paperless trade policy transformation, and employs the difference-in-differences method of estimation. The results show that the adaptation of paperless trade facilitation policy measures and aid for trade to trade facilitation and the communication technology sector has a positive and statistically significant impact on export performance in Asian economies including in SASEC and CAREC region. However, the findings of this study also point out that the economic growth, foreign direct investment and the labour force has a positive effect on export performance. Thus the results from this study suggest that the export performance in these regions could be enhanced by adopting paperless trade policy measures and more aid allocation for the trade facilitation and communication technology sectors.

US-China Economic Confrontation: Ideology, Chronology, Meaning

In summer 2018 the United States launched a trade war against China. Before that, there was a chance that both sides would find a compromise, some hopes were still in place during bilaterial negotiations in May. However, new US tariffs on import from China were imposed in July and August with the total of $50 billion. Beijing responded proportionally. September brought another round of US tariffs worth $200 billion. The successful economic growth of China leads to the transformation of the world economic space, where the leading positions are still occupied by the countries of the West. The new US administration, fearing economic competition, announced a policy of containing China. In this case, Washington is going to violate the existing rules of international trade. The tension in the economic relations of the United States and China is growing. The authors look into the history, ideology and details of the conflict between two major powerhouses of the global economy. They try to investigate how both countries will be affected by the emerging trade war, which is also challenging the whole system of international trade regulation. Besides, the conflict between Washington and Beijing is understood as a fundamental shift in the world economy and politics where rising powers take the lead in globalization. For the first time in the history of Sino-American relations economic tensions between the two sides have reached such a scale. Analysis of their consequences far exceeds the standard methods of assessment of trade policy measures.

The trade policy effect in international trade: case of Pakistan

The debate on free trade and protectionism is ravaging in recent years. The industrialized countries are losing more and more market to the benefit of emerging countries. Liberals worry about new tariff barriers, while protectionists fear that unevenly distributed losses and gains will lead to significant economic dislocation of workers in import-competing industries. The economic policy of restricting imports and the economic policy of opening exports remain two critical measures of international trade. This study uses the gravity model to investigate the impacts of trade policy measures on trade flows between Pakistan and its dominant trading pattern for the period 2006 to 2015. The findings revealed the statistically significant correlation of trade policy variables on exports and imports. The study extended the analysis by examining four specificities groups of trade policy and continuing the analysis by estimating different country groups according to geographical or organizational clusters. The findings indicated that the specificities of trade policy have a statistically significant effect on exports and imports. Moreover, the signs of the coefficients are opposite in both models. The main political implication is that the proliferation of free trade agreements can have a positive impact on international trade.

The impact of Chinese technical barriers to trade on its manufacturing imports when exporters are heterogeneous

In the past few decades, China has put substantial efforts into liberalising its trade and economy that accelerated after its accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in December 2001. In this period, China has significantly reduced its tariffs on manufacturing imports. However, the proliferation of non-tariff measures imposed by China has made it the country notifying the second largest number of technical barriers to trade (TBTs) to the WTO after the USA. Nevertheless, there has been no case in the dispute settlement mechanism of the WTO against China violating the TBT agreement. This paper investigates the heterogeneous impact of Chinese TBTs on the imports of manufacturing products at the 6-digit level of the Harmonised System during 2002–2015. Heterogeneity of exporting firms, sample selection bias, multilateral resistances, and endogeneity bias are controlled for according to the recent strands of gravity modelling. Using the disaggregated data and controlling for these problematic issues in the estimations, paper finds no significantly overall impact of Chinese TBT on imports in comparison with earlier studies in the literature. However, the impact differentiated across exporting countries hints at prohibitive effects against few exporters. The impact on traded prices and quantities provide more insights on how these TBTs affect different exporters. The imposed standards and regulations embedded in these trade policy measures allowed the Chinese economy to gain better access to larger exporters from the more developed economies who could easily comply with TBTs without increasing prices but substituting those exporters who did not comply with TBTs, leading to an overall insignificant net impact on imports values to China.

Oilseeds sector in India: A trade policy perspective

The government had been intervening in the oilseed sector from time to time in the form of production, price and trade related policies to improve edible oils availability in India. In this paper, we analyse the impact of trade policy measures adopted by the government to improve domestic oilseeds production. A simultaneous equation simulation model was applied to find out the impact of recent import duty hike on palm oil on production and consumption of edible oils in India. The tariff hike will benefit the oilseeds growers through increase in the price of edible oils. The net impact in the economy will be negative due to the higher reduction in consumer surplus that may outweigh the increase in producer surplus and government revenue. The duty hike may yield short term benefit but improvement in yield, proper procurement and strengthening of edible oils processing industries are the keys for long term strategy for revival of the sector.

Not all trade wars are created equal

▀ When interpreting estimates of the economic impact of trade wars, the devil is in the detail. Our review of more than 30 institutions' trade war projections finds huge variation – much of which can be explained by differences in assumptions rather than differences in models' structures or specifications. Relative to estimates based on extreme financial or tariff assumptions, our main trade war scenario results are moderate and comparable with the IMF's latest analysis. ▀ In our baseline forecast, trade policy measures have a relatively limited overall impact on global growth. This is in line with recent experience: to date, direct effects from higher trade costs have been small, and policy action has acted to offset adverse impacts on confidence. But the risk of further escalation in US‐China trade tensions remains, even following the (fragile) Trump‐Xi truce agreed at the recent G20 summit. ▀ Our review finds that estimates of the impact of such an escalation range from negligible impacts to a deterioration in some countries’ economic conditions approaching that seen during the global financial crisis. Results in Oxford Economics’ “rising protectionism” scenario – from our latest Global Scenarios Service – are moderate in comparison. ▀ We also find that all estimates showing substantial economic effects from a trade war in our sample are predicated on extreme asset price or tariff moves. In some cases, tariffs are assumed to rise more than at the time of the Great Depression in the 1930s. ▀ Such differences in assumptions can largely account for the divergence in trade war impact estimates. This is illustrated in our very low probability “full‐blown global trade war” scenario – incorporating severe tariff and financial assumptions more in line with institutions like the Bank of England – which generates a deterioration in economic conditions that broadly matches extreme estimates in our sample.