Trading Partners Research Articles

The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade between South Africa and her Top Trading Partners: Fresh Insights from ARDL and Quantile ARDL Models

The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade between South Africa and her Top Trading Partners: Fresh Insights from ARDL and Quantile ARDL Models

China's Antidumping Investigations against US Feed Products: Lessons from the Trenches

Abstract China has initiated three antidumping (AD) investigations against US feed products since 2010, despite clear mutual benefits from such exports from the US to China. This article provides a close examination of these investigations, what prompted them, how they were resolved, and the costs they imposed on importers and exporters. The article also describes the political economy around these investigations and how China's antidumping laws provide it with flexibility to manage these investigations. The article concludes that this flexibility makes China well-positioned to continue using AD investigations against some trade partners in the future, particularly if AD use continues to rise globally.

Enhancing International Trade Security: Real-Time Risk Assessment in Brazilian Customs with Blockchain Technology

This study introduces an innovative approach by integrating blockchain technology with risk analysis methods for international trade. The practical application and tangible improvements observed in a real case study highlight the originality and value of this approach, offering a robust framework for future research and practical implementation. The security of exports presents a challenge for customs authorities, requiring the analysis of vast volumes of data from diverse sources and stakeholders. Blockchain technology offers a viable solution by facilitating the sharing of reliable and secure data among participants in the international supply chain. This study proposes a distributed risk analysis method based on Blockchain to detect and prevent fraud and irregularities in Brazilian exports. The technique aims to enhance efficiency and protection in customs clearance, providing real-time risk analysis feedback at various supply chain stages. The method includes four stages: data collection, risk classification, validation, and feedback. It employs a Model Form for Insertion into the Blockchain, the DBSCAN algorithm to identify out-of-pattern transactions (outliers) at the manufacturing stage, and a Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the volume and specific products exported from Rio Grande do Sul. We applied this method in a case study of beef exports from Brazil. Using this method led to significant improvements in processing times, operational costs, transparency, and security in the supply chain. The blockchain-based approach identified fraudulent activities, such as value tampering and undeclared goods, enhancing compliance and trust among trade partners. Implementing this method can significantly reduce operational costs and processing times in international trade while increasing security and transparency. This approach benefits customs authorities and private operators, promoting a more reliable and efficient commercial environment. Adopting blockchain technology in international trade can reduce fraudulent and illicit practices, promoting greater fairness and equity in commercial transactions. Increased transparency strengthens trust among various actors in the supply chain, fostering a sense of social responsibility.

CURRENT TRENDS AND COUNTERMEASURES OF INTERNATIONAL WASTE TRADE BETWEEN CHINA AND UKRAINE

It has been proved in the article that with the development of the global economy and the advancement of the industrialization process, the amount of waste has been increasing, and the international trade of waste is becoming increasingly active. As an important trading partner, exchanges and cooperation between Ukraine and China in the field of waste are of great significance. However, the study of the current situation and problems of the two countries in this respect has shown that waste trade had also brought a series of problems and challenges, which need to be further studied and discussed. It has been appeared to become significance to further promote economic cooperation and environmental protection between the two sides. The authors believe that international waste trade carries significant environmental risks because improper management of imported waste can lead to soil, water and air pollution, which negatively affects the health of the population and the ecosystem. The article examines current trends and measures to counter the international waste trade between China and Ukraine. It has been emphasized that waste trade has a significant economic impact hence it is important to understand how these processes affect the country's economy, in particular, the development of the industry of waste processing and innovative technologies. This study contributes to the strengthening of international cooperation in the field of environmental protection and helps to establish effective mechanisms for joint solutions to problems related to waste trade. China's refusal to import certain types of waste significantly has changed the global market and affected many countries, including Ukraine. Further analysis of these changes will help to understand their consequences and find optimal solutions for adaptation to new conditions. Given the growing international movement of waste, it is important to analyse and improve legal and regulatory mechanisms that ensure control and prevent illegal trade, which can lead to environmental and economic problems. The main aspects of this trade have been analysed, including its scale, the types of waste exported and imported, as well as the legislative and regulatory mechanisms of both countries. Particular attention has been paid to the latest international and national initiatives aimed at reducing environmental risks associated with transboundary movement of waste.

Information technology and business strategic alignment in small and medium organizations: an exploratory study in Mexico

Purpose This qualitative study aims to fill gaps in a widely studied and relevant organizational feature: the alignment between information technologies and business strategies. Design/methodology/approach This research is a qualitative study. The authors used focus groups, content analysis and semantic networks as research approaches to identify the main factors that prevent or foster such alignment. Findings Results reveal a leading role of innovation, organizational culture, access to information and financial factors that could promote or inhibit alignment and competitiveness. Originality/value This research was conducted only in small and medium organizations in Mexico, which represents about 52% of the Mexican Gross Domestic Product (for Mexico as one of the leading trade partners of the USA).

Trade Openness, Export Quality and Economic Growth Nexus in Kenya

Economic growth is a major concern for developing and underdeveloped countries. High economic growth creates opportunities for poverty eradication, employment creation, investment, and wealth creation. While measures to enhance cross-border trade are regarded as effective in enabling economic growth, studies have yielded mixed results on their impacts. Kenya's trade openness level has declined, besides the country implementing various policies to strengthen cross-border trade. Trade openness declined from 57 percent to 27 percent between 1990 and 2020, underscoring the need to understand its effects on Kenya's economy. The general objective of this research was to analyze the impact of trade openness on Kenya's economic growth, and the specific objectives were to determine the impact of trade openness on the economic growth of Kenya and to establish the effects of the quality of exported products on economic growth in Kenya. Ordinary least squares estimation technique was used to determine the relationship among variables. The study established that trade openness does not lead to increased economic growth in Kenya. The research further found that an increase in the quality of exports increases economic growth in Kenya. The study concluded that Kenya should enhance the quality of its exports and diversify them to improve economic growth. Further, the paper observed that Kenya should lower the cost of doing business in the country to make her industries and products competitive, which can help ensure trade openness positively impacts the country's economy. It was observed that attempts to restrict trade openness are likely to lead Kenya to experience similar measures from its trading partners.

An application of gravity models to freight data in Malaysia

Background: Freight transport services and international trade are among important factors in pushing economies’ transition forward. Malaysia’s strategic location along key maritime routes positions it as a vital hub for international shipping and logistics, facilitating efficient trade between Asia, Europe and the Middle East.Objectives: Despite extensive global studies on freight and trade, little specific research exists from Malaysia’s perspective. Thus, this study aims to evaluate how factors such as economic size of trade partners and distance impact Malaysia’s freight transport in international trade, using the gravity model, a tool for analysing bilateral trade flows.Method: Three types of gravity models are employed to assess the impact of economic scale, infrastructure and demographic factors on freight transport. Then the validity of these relationships is further evaluated.Results: The random effect model (REM) is found to be the best fitted model. The study identifies infrastructure and economic scale as pivotal factors influencing both freight export and import. The result showed the volume of container handled in ports is the main determinant in both export and import of freight, whereas air freight has significant impact to boost the export of freight. Distance is statistically significant, however, with marginally small impact.Conclusion: Based on the analysis, we can conclude that the robust port infrastructure and efficient logistical facilities are important in reducing freight costs and enhancing Malaysia’s international trade competitiveness.Contribution: This study mainly contributes on providing empirical evidence and in-depth insight on Malaysia freight transport services through the application of gravity models.

Exploring sustainable food system transformation options in China: An integrated environmental-economic modelling approach based on the applied general equilibrium framework

Our food system drives global environmental change, and differences in environmental concerns of consumers may cause negative environmental ‘spillover effects’ in less concerned countries. While food system transformation is increasingly recognised as crucial for mitigating such negative environmental spillovers, possible unintended negative environmental consequences in other regions and/or economic sectors have received less attention. Using an integrated environmental-economic modelling framework and scenario analyses, we explored options for more sustainable food systems and to mitigate the negative environmental spillovers from trading partners to China. We found that doubling novel soy-based food (soy-based meat) consumption while reducing pork consumption in China decreased Chinese economy-wide emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 1 % and acidification pollutants by 3 %. However, it increased Chinese economy-wide emissions of eutrophication pollutants by 2 %, driven by the increased production of soy-based food and other food with relatively high emission intensities of eutrophication pollutants. Combining a dietary shift with the adoption of cleaner cereals production technology for half of the current resources used for cereals production decreased Chinese economy-wide emissions of GHGs by 1 %, acidification pollutants by 7 %, and eutrophication pollutants by 3 %, but required capital reallocation from other sectors. Implementing a unilateral environmental policy in China (i.e., implementing incentive-based emission permits to reduce emissions of all pollutants by 3 % annually) increased economy-wide emissions of GHGs in trading partners by 2 %. This ‘carbon leakage’ emerges due to the shift of production of products with relatively high emission intensities (i.e., nitrogen fertiliser and livestock) from China to its trading partners through international trade. We demonstrate that indirect environmental impacts are crucial to consider when analysing the economy-wide consequences of food system transformations, as these indirect impacts may inadvertently affect other regions and/or economic sectors that were not initially targeted. Our study offers policymakers insights into designing effective policies for more sustainable food systems and sheds light on trade-offs among competing environmental and economic goals.

The WTO as Multilateral Diffusion Hub: Institutional Learning in WTO Disputes and the Design of Preferential Trade Agreements

Abstract Institutions are not created in a vacuum—but how do extant institutions influence design choices? Leveraging fragmentation in the global trade order, this paper stresses the relevance of experience and argues that the institutional influence of the World Trade Organization (WTO) extends beyond its jurisdiction through its centrality as multilateral diffusion hub: When states negotiate preferential trade agreements (PTAs), previous dispute settlement experiences in the WTO shape the design of dispute settlement mechanisms (DSMs). National bureaucracies undergo institutional learning processes when participating in multilateral trade disputes and subsequently conclude PTAs with DSMs that are similar to the institutions of the WTO, thus fostering their—decentralized—spread to the network of PTAs. The learning effect is particularly pronounced for states with low bureaucratic capacity. Employing a novel, unitary conceptualization of DSMs in terms of complainant rights shows that the results of this diffusion process generally entail increased levels of complainant rights in PTAs. Importantly, institutional learning is more than mere emulation: States also adapt institutional design to individual context by considering the prior dispute experience of their trading partners. A dual empirical strategy and interviews with PTA negotiators corroborate the learning effect and its relevance during PTA negotiations.

Public opinion and Chinese exports: evidence from Twitter sentiment analysis

This paper employs web-crawling and sentiment analysis techniques to quantify public opinion and then investigates its effects on Chinese exports to trading partners during 2007–2019. The empirical results show that, after the control of possible reverse causality, negative China-related public opinion is associated with decreased exports. This relationship could be nurtured through three channels namely consumer preference, economic policy uncertainty and political conflicts. Further analysis reveals that the observed relationship is especially prevalent in developed markets and non-participatory countries of the Belt and Road Initiative as well as for industrial and capital-intensive products. In addition, it is found that political relation is positively associated with exports and plays a mitigating role in the negative relationship between public opinion and exports. Our findings have important policy implications. Policy makers are encouraged to think outside the box and exploit soft power of country image to promote exports.

Maritime security and blue economy development in Nigeria: A structural equation model

The Nigerian Niger Delta region has been described as the epicenter of piracy and kidnapping for ransom of seafarers and other maritime crimes especially in the Gulf of Guinea region. This paper aimed to evaluate Maritime Security and Blue Economy development in Nigeria using structural equation model. The study adopted a quantitative research methodology and expost facto research design. A 33year (1990 - 2022) time series secondary data were sourced from International Maritime Bureau (IMB), Nigerian Ports Authority annual reports, CBN statistical bulletin, NOSDRA, and NPA annual statistics. The data obtained were transformed, cleaned, and subjected to Confirmatory factor analysis, measurement model and Structural equation modelling using AMOS (V23). From the structural equations analysis, the specified models met the minimum/necessary conditions (Df => 0) for model identification. The findings of the study revealed that 56 % of maritime security threats in Nigeria waters can be predicted by the number of crewmen kidnapped for ransom, 55 % by pirates’ attacks and 92 % by crude oil theft in Nigerian waters. Similarly, the results revealed that maritime security threats (MST) have a significant effect on blue economy development in Nigeria. Imperatively, adequate maritime security measures stimulate confidence among local and international stakeholders, attracting investments, encouraging trade partnerships, and enhancing the country’s position as a reliable maritime hub. Therefore, the study recommended that the Nigerian government should prioritise cooperation and collaborations with other regional navies to ensure adequate maritime domain awareness and security interdiction within her exclusive economic zone as provided by the Yaoundé code of conduct security architecture.

The Universe of Germany’s Foreign Trade Prior to World War I

Abstract We present a new disaggregated dataset on Germany’s exports and imports from 1880 to 1913. The data covers trade in both quantity and value at the product level. It thus comprises the universe of the data in terms of products and trade partners, at annual frequency. To ensure comparability over time and to data from other countries, the historical product categories are re-classified according to the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC, Rev. 2 and Rev. 4). Moreover, we integrate Hamburg and Bremen into the German trade statistics – two important port cities, which were not covered by the major German trade records until 1888. We describe the new data in terms of five stylized facts and make suggestions for its use in research.

Did Brexiteers consider the business cycle of the UK trading partners?

Did Brexiteers consider the business cycle of the UK trading partners?

ASEAN and European Union addressing the challenges of the 21st century

Abstract Subject and purpose of work The European Union (EU) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are trade partners and believe in rules-based multilateralism. They have developed strong ties despite starting from different starting points and having different standards. The EU is a mature regional cooperation scheme(union) with a highly institutionalized and legalized architecture. At the same time, ASEAN is an intergovernmental association with low institutionalization and legalization in which decisions are made by consensus. After almost fifty years of establishing a diplomatic dialogue between the EU and ASEAN, their cooperation has been of essential importance in maintaining peace and balancing great power rivalries. Materials and methods Bibliography in books and articles. Results The EU and ASEAN are among the world’s largest economies in terms of gross domestic product. The EU is already the world’s second-largest economy, and ASEAN could become the world’s fourth-largest economy by 2030. The EU looks forward to strengthening its economic cooperation with ASEAN to maintain its competitive position in the dynamically developing region of the Indo-Pacific. ASEAN is a crucial hub for transporting European goods and is essential in regional supply chains. Closer trade and investment relations could also help the EU achieve its goal of a strategic partnership between the two regional blocks encompassing political and economic cooperation. It would be desirable if the EU and ASEAN continue to connect Europe and Asia by acting as balancers and reducing tensions between the major international players. Conclusions In the 21st century, the rise of China, India, and other regional powers is consolidating a multipolar system and new geopolitical balances. In this new era, the EU and ASEAN can continue to connect Europe and Asia by acting as balancers and reducing tensions between the major international players.

The network origins of trade comovement

I develop a production network model of the world economy that features Transcendental Logarithmic (a.k.a. translog) aggregators of varieties. This gives rise to variable substitution elasticities that consistent with the evidence are inversely related to the importer expenditure shares per exporter at the country-sector level. I quantify the model using data for 1970–2018 from 19 OECD economies and 30 sectors. Compared to the analogous constant elasticity version of the model, I find that the translog model amplifies international shock transmission between major trade partners and attenuates transmission elsewhere, which to an extent resolves the “trade comovement puzzle”.

India's Tea Export Potential: Stirring up Global Trade Opportunities

India's tea industry, a significant player in the global market, is poised for growth amidst evolving trade dynamics. This paper explores India's tea export potential by examining production, export trends, and competitiveness on a global scale. In 2022, global tea production reached 6,422 million kilograms, with China and India being the largest producers, while Kenya led in exports. India, the second-largest producer and fourth-largest exporter, shipped tea worth approximately USD 706 million, primarily to the UAE, Iraq, Russia, the USA, and the UK. Methodologically, this study utilizes a gravity model with PPML estimation to analyze India's tea exports to 173 trading partners from 2004 to 2021, addressing zero trade observations. Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) indices are employed to assess competitiveness, revealing an upward trend in India's comparative advantage. Transitional probabilities provide insights into shifting trade patterns, indicating significant market instability in countries like Germany and the UK. The analysis also includes estimation results highlighting the impact of GDP, geographical distance, population, and other factors on India's tea exports. Results demonstrate that India has considerable potential to expand tea exports to 118 countries, with high prospects in Uzbekistan, the USA, France, Hong Kong, and Italy. Current export strategies focus on saturated markets, underscoring the need to explore untapped regions to maximize trade opportunities. This study highlights the necessity for India to diversify its export destinations to enhance its global trade footprint and leverage its growing competitiveness in the tea sector.

From traditional to digital servicification: Chinese services in European manufacturing

AbstractThe study investigates if the advancements in the domestic servicification of manufacturing reflect the rise in Chinese servicification within the manufacturing sectors of its trade partners. In a broader context, the article verifies whether China is following global trends related to servicification and digitalization in GVCs with Europe. The research reveals a growing role for Chinese services in both developed and developing European economies, with a higher absorption observed in Western European countries due to their level of development. However, the study did not fully confirm that China is strengthening its role in European digital GVCs. The Chinese strategy of joining advanced GVCs is two-pronged, with heavy servicification with traditional services and considerable variation in the servicification with digital services.

Assessing the impact of hydrogen trade towards low-carbon energy transition

Hydrogen is increasingly recognized as a pivotal commodity in the low-carbon energy transition, bridging regional disparities in hydrogen production capacity and facilitating international energy trade. Existing research has yet to delve into the impact of global hydrogen trade on energy transitions, as well as the key factors driving the development of hydrogen trade. This study, utilizing the updated GCAM-TU model, which mainly extends the original Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) with a hydrogen trade module, provides a multi-scenario outlook on the characteristics of hydrogen trade and its impact on global and regional energy transition. The findings indicate that by 2050, the global hydrogen trade volume is expected to reach 9-19EJ, accounting for a quarter of the global hydrogen consumption in different scenarios, with green hydrogen trade dominating due to its cost advantages. Pipeline hydrogen and ammonia shipping will govern the trade market, representing 33%–61% and 24%–64% of trade volume, respectively, while liquid hydrogen shipping holds an advantage for medium distances. Hydrogen trade is projected to increase global hydrogen demand by 1.2–5.3EJ and reduce hydrogen prices by 11%–36% in the European Union, Japan, and South Korea, thereby expanding their hydrogen consumption by 8%–55% and reducing regional carbon prices by 1%–6%. Moreover, hydrogen trade significantly alters the regional distribution of global hydrogen production, with major exporting regions such as North and East Africa increasing their hydrogen production for export by up to 150%. To facilitate the development of hydrogen and hydrogen trade, it is crucial for potential importing and exporting regions to enhance global financial and technological cooperation, develop key hydrogen production and transportation technologies, and retrofit existing nature gas infrastructure to reduce costs. Additionally, forming stable trade partnerships is essential for maintaining energy security in the hydrogen trade.

Research on the Inhibitory Effect of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on Carbon Leakage

Associated with more ambitious targets for reducing emissions, the European Union (EU) plans to implement the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) fully in 2026, aiming to reduce carbon leakage and competitiveness concerns by imposing tariffs on carbon-intensive imports, which is expected to significantly impact its trade partners. Existing research has focused on CBAM’s impact on macroeconomic indicators but has insufficiently addressed its effects on global and regional carbon leakage, especially in non-EU countries like China. This research offers a detailed analysis of industry-specific leakage rates and integrates both global and regional impacts by employing the dynamic recursive GTAP-E general equilibrium model to numerically simulate CBAM’s inhibitory effect on carbon leakage under different carbon tariff scenarios, while also exploring the synergistic effects of anti-leakage policies in non-EU countries. Our simulations indicate the following: (1) CBAM effectively inhibits carbon leakage, with greater inhibition observed at higher tax rates and with the expansion of covered industries. (2) Establishing China’s domestic carbon market pricing can further reduce regional carbon leakage rates. Implementing global export carbon tax policies will significantly diminish the risk of global carbon leakage. (3) The implementation of CBAM is projected to reduce China’s total exports to the EU, though this loss will be partly offset by trade diversion effects. Carbon-intensive industries are more adversely affected in the short term, while all industries except fossil fuels face inevitable long-term negative impacts.

Examining the Impact of Economic Policy Shocks on Investment: Evidence from Pakistan and its Trade Partners

The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of both internal and external policy ambiguity on aggregate investment in Pakistan and its bilateral trade partners from the fourth quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2021. To achieve this, study uses economic policy uncertainty index for each country as a proxy for internal policy volatility. External policy volatility is measured by constructing a compound index that accounts for the trade weight of each country's policy uncertainty index. Further to find out the relationship, Panel PMG-ARDL model used and findings indicate that investment decrease with increase in uncertainty. Additionally, the research delves into the nonlinear relationship between investment and uncertainty and results demonstrate a U-shaped relationship between uncertainty and investments. Furthermore, Specific values were calculated to determine whether the effects of policy shocks are positive or negative, showing that internal policy shocks are more harmful than external ones. The study also provides policy implications based on these findings. Since internal policy insecurity has a stronger negative impact on investment than external factors, it is essential for policymakers in Pakistan to prioritize reducing ambiguity in internal policies. Implementing clear, consistent, and stable economic policies can help alleviate the negative effects of uncertainty on investment.