Trading Partners Research Articles

САМОНАЗВАННЫЕ ФРАНЦУЗЫ И «БРАТЬЯ ФРАНЦУЗОВ» В БРАЗИЛИИ XVI ВЕКА

The paper deals with the strategy that some Europeans chose in the 16th century Brazil while finding themselves in a hostile environment. Being captured by Indians and destinated to death and following anthropophagy, a German soldier Hans Staden, a Genovese captain Giuseppe Adorno and an English adventurer Anthony Knivet decided to appoint themselves as Frenchmen (their captors regarded Frenchmen as friends and trade partners). The Indians’ reaction to the declarations of such “impostors” (including some “tests for identity”) reveals the way the Brazilian Indians considered one European nation as friend and ally rather than another. A special attention is paid to the cross-verified elements in Staden’s, Adorno’s and Knivet’s stories. This cross-validation is mostly important for Staden’s testimony (most detailed of all): the German author describes his first unsuccessful attempts to save his life by assuming another identity as an act of faith and a miraculous escape, so it is essential to distinguish the facts from the metaphors. The paper discusses the degree in which Staden, Adorno and Knivet can be considered as impostors. They did not seek to gain something beyond what they had, just to save their lives. So they are more “self-appointed” Frenchmen (in the sense of self-denomination) rather than persistent usurpers of someone else’s identity.

Who benefits from strong patent protection? An oil‐dependent country's perspective

AbstractIn this paper, a complex interplay is demonstrated, indicating that the impact of intellectual property rights (IPR) and patent protection varies in certain trade contexts. We review the IPR and patent laws in Oman and subsequent amendments following the signing of free trade agreements and investigate how strong protection of patents and IPRs affects Oman's trade. A panel data set comprising the majority of Oman's trading partners from 2000 to 2021 was utilized to achieve this objective. Under the Oman Intellectual Property (IP) Laws, 5617 patent applications were used to calculate the patent index scores. This study contributes four significant findings. First, it analyzes how strong IP and patent protection affect Oman's exports and imports. Second, it assesses the variation in overall trade flows and manufacturing trade flows. Third, while most studies use the IPR index, this study offers a more specific perspective by examining the patent index, particularly concerning manufacturing trade, which is primarily associated with patent‐protected technologies. Fourth, this study provides the first comprehensive analysis of a GCC country that is heavily dependent on oil. This study reveals that Oman's strong IPR and patent regimes significantly enhance overall exports. Strong patent protection promotes the import of high‐tech goods, whereas robust IPR protection unexpectedly reduces manufacturing trade.

Reaching people who use drugs with sexual and reproductive healthcare through syringe services programs: potential promise and missed opportunities.

People who use drugs are at elevated sexual and reproductive health risk but experience barriers to services. Syringe services programs (SSP) are an important venue to provide integrated health services. Few studies have examined SSP use within intersecting gender, racial, and ethnic groups, including by injection drug use (IDU), and differences in sexual and reproductive health among these groups. Within a cohort study among people who use unprescribed opioids in New York City, we conducted a nested cross-sectional study from November 2021-August 2022 assessing sexual health with a survey (n = 120). The parent study measured baseline characteristics, and the cross-sectional study survey measured self-reported past-year SSP use and sexual and reproductive health. We estimated SSP use within gender, racial, and ethnic groups by IDU, and the prevalence of sexual and reproductive health outcomes by gender, race, ethnicity, and SSP use. Among men (n = 61) and women (n = 54), SSP use was disproportionately low among Black participants irrespective of IDU. Women reporting SSP use had a higher prevalence of multiple, new, sex trade, and/or casual sex partners, history of STI symptoms, and lack of effective STI prevention, although women who did not use SSP had non-negligible levels of risk with variation between racial and ethnic groups. Among men, sexual and reproductive health varied across racial and ethnic groups but not as clearly by SSP use. SSP offer opportunity to address elevated STI risk among people who use drugs but may miss certain intersecting gender, race, and ethnic groups.

Impact of electronic networks on E‐waste trade: Evidence from ASEAN+6 countries

AbstractThe development of electronic networks promotes economic growth and international trade flows. Because of the short life cycle of electrical and electronic equipment, considerable electronic waste (e‐waste) is generated. We identified the determinants of e‐waste trade, focusing on ASEAN+6 countries and their trading partners for the years 2000 to 2018. The empirical results regarding trade value and trade weight revealed that electronic networks significantly promoted the import of e‐waste into ASEAN+6 countries. The results were robust to using different measures of electronic networks and different estimation methods.

Impact of natural resource rents on global trade dynamics in RCEP: Economic and geopolitical interdependencies

This research analyzes the impact of natural resource revenues on global economic trends in the RCEP countries, emphasizing the importance of resource exploitation in the financial development process. The work explores complex interdependencies between resource extraction, geopolitical risk, economic environment, and trade relationships. Energy efficiency, geopolitical risk, and GDP are the control variables. These findings highlight the importance of natural resource rents, GDP, geopolitical risk, and energy conservation on the trade structure of the RCEP trading partners. Quantile regression studies show the negative effect of oil revenues on world trade, thus providing evidence of the multifaceted link between natural resource earnings and trade outcomes. The findings underscore the significance of policymakers and businesses understanding these interrelated links and their implications for global trade relations. The report offers policy directions for RCEP countries to foster sustainable economic development and enhance export competitiveness. These recommendations aim to further the resource sector's growth, financial infrastructure, and managing geopolitical risks.

Determining the Predictive Power of the Gravity Model: A Case for Zambia

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the predictive power of the gravity model in explaining trade flows in Zambia. Materials and Methods: The study utilized panel data for the period 1990-2020 for the Zambian economy and its 15 top trading partners based on 2018 trade volumes. The data was collected from the Centre for Prospective Studies and International Studies for International Information (CEPII) Gravity Database. The study employed the gravity equation to predict trade flows in Zambia. Findings: The empirical results show that the gravity model accurately predicts Zambia's trade flows, with GDP positively and distance negatively correlated with exports. The results also show that sharing a common border enhances Zambia’s exports. Surprisingly, trade agreements exhibit a negative relationship with exports. Implications to Theory, Practice and Policy: The significant negative impact of distance on trade highlights the need for improved infrastructure and logistics to reduce transportation costs, thus, facilitating Zambia’s trade flows. Further, the findings suggest that Zambia should focus on strengthening trade with neighboring countries. Additionally, Zambia should diversify export bases away from heavy reliance on the mining sector. Besides, there is a need for active participation in regional integration initiatives to address implementation challenges of trade agreements.

Risk Transmission and Hedging Strategies Between Chinese Stock Market and Major Trading Partners Along the Belt and Road in COVID-19 Scenario

This paper focuses on the multi-scale spillover and time-varying dependence of Chinese stock market and its important trading partners along the Belt and Road around the COVID-19 crisis. We use multiple methods - the DY (12) and BK (18) connectedness approaches that investigate dynamic and frequency connectedness; the wavelet coherence and the time-varying CoVaR to examine the connection between price lead lags and systemic risk spillovers. Our empirical results show spillovers to be asymmetric, and short-term spillovers dominating. Meanwhile, the level of spillover in the system increased sharply after the COVID-19. In the medium and long-term frequency domains, wavelet coherence reveals strong co-movement between the Chinese market and its major trading partners. We see that the highest level of systematic risk spillovers occurs at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak. Finally, the weighting of the Chinese stock market in the effective portfolio rises after the COVID-19 outbreak.

Balancing power and prosperity: China’s geo-economic engagement with the Gulf Cooperation Council

Since the 1990s, China’s engagement beyond its geographical periphery, especially with Asian regions, has grown exceptionally, which is best evident in the Gulf sub-region and Western Asian nations. Indeed, energy-based interactions were the first to be established with Gulf Arab countries, and today, more than two decades after the Cold War, such relationships have evolved into tighter partnerships and engagement networks. Thus, in the last decade, China has increased its economic and political footprint in the Gulf region, as it has become one of the region’s largest external investors and trade partners. In its relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, China faces varying challenges as each country pursues its interests, making the Chinese strategy in the region more complex. The Gulf countries have had to balance their relationship between the US as a security guarantor and China as an important economic partner. They strive to maximize their political and economic interests in the process. The main contention of this paper is that the GCC should not be viewed as a homogenous entity and that the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a flexible approach designed to bolster China’s economic objectives in each Gulf country. Our research scrutinizes China’s geo-economic strategy and geopolitical aims about the Gulf States’ aspirations to maximize their economic ties with China. Against this background, this paper discusses the political and economic relationships between the People’s Republic of China and the Gulf Arab states: Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The Impact of the U.S.-China Trade War on Air and Ocean Shipments

This paper estimates the impact of the U.S.-China trade war and the consequent increase in trade costs on air and ocean shipments between the two countries. Using panel data covering U.S. exports and imports with its trading partners from 2016 to 2021, we estimate gravity models and find evidence showing negative impacts of the trade war on both U.S. imports from China and U.S. exports to China. However, there are differential impacts on air shipments and ocean shipments. Specifically, we find that U.S. tariff increases on Chinese goods primarily had a negative effect on air imports from China, whereas China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods mainly had a negative impact on U.S. ocean exports. These findings contribute to the growing body of evidence on the effects of the U.S.-China trade war, highlighting the varying impacts of the trade war on different modes of transportation that drive the U.S.-China trade relationship.

Низкоуглеродное развитие России: вызовы и возможности в новых условиях

Russiaʼs model of economic development, based on hydrocarbon exports, initially determined the countryʼs scepticism to- ward low-carbon transformation. However, the growing negative effects of climate change, manifesting in increased natural disasters (floods, fires, extreme heat), as well as extraterritorial measures imposed by major trading partners, which could potentially limit market access, led to a transformation of the perceived climate change challenge and the adoption of a range of policy documents and regulations to articulate and implement a low-carbon development policy in Russia. The targets and measures have been criticized for lacking ambition and rigour, but still pushed the processes without which the economy would continue to face the negative effects of climate change and increasing constraintsin global markets. The geopolitical crisis of 2022 and widening sanctions have significantly constrained Russiaʼs ability to meet climate targets. Despite this, mechanisms to promote decarbonization in key sectors continue to be developed. In addition, opportunities for cooperation with some major non-western economies have not closed. This article analyzes Russiaʼs strategic documents and key low-carbon development policies, including the activities of major companies. It provides perspective on the role of forest climate projects as well astheir drawbacks and risks, the Sakhalin experiment to achieve carbon neutrality in the region and how it is implemented through concrete initiatives, the prospects and limitations of the hydrogen industry, the challenges and tools for decarbonizing transport, state of play in the carbon capture, use and storage technologies, the criteria for green projects, and the situation on the green bond market. It also identifies two important areas which gain importance as the climate transition scales up: nuclear power and the ex- traction and production of critical raw materials. Based on the analysis, recommendations are given on promising areas of cooperation between Russia and its BRICS and EAEU partners.

Immigrants, legal status, and illegal trade

Nearly $2 trillion of illegally trafficked goods flow across international borders every year, generating violence and other social costs along the way. Due to the absence of legal contracts and the challenge of finding trading partners in an illegal market, traffickers may rely on co-ethnic networks to facilitate trade. In this paper, I use novel microdata on the universe of large illegal drug confiscations in Spain to provide the first causal estimates of how immigrants and immigration policy affect the pattern and scale of illegal drug trafficking. I find that immigrants increase both illegal drugs imported from and exported to their origin country, with irregular immigrants raising illegal drug imports. Doubling the number of immigrants from an origin country raises the likelihood of illegal drug imports from that country by 8 percentage points. I find suggestive evidence that granting legal status to immigrants reduces illegal drug imports.

Understanding the Republic of Malawi’s trade dynamics: A Bayesian gravity model approach

International trade enables countries to expand their markets, access more products, improve resource allocation, and boost economic growth by leveraging comparative advantage and specialization. The aim of this article is to analyze the primary factors that influence Malawi’s international trade flows. The study is relevant because it examines Malawi’s trade patterns with its main partners, which include surrounding nations and traditional trade allies. The novelty is that, through the analysis, the research offers valuable insights into the primary factors that influence Malawi’s international commerce. Panel data is gathered from various sources, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, covering the period from 2000 to 2023 for 11 countries that are trading partners with Malawi. We employ the Bayesian Mindsponge gravity methodology. The results show that the economic size (characterized by the gross domestic product) of the origin and destination countries, bilateral agreements, and the population size of the destination country have a beneficial impact on Malawi’s exports. In conclusion, Malawi’s export performance is significantly enhanced by the economic size of both Malawi and its trading partners, the existence of bilateral agreements, and the population size of the destination countries, underscoring the importance of strategic economic partnerships and targeted trade policies in boosting Malawi’s international trade. We recommend Malawi authorities focus on strengthening bilateral agreements and targeting trade relationships with larger and more populous economies to boost international trade.

The origins of Russia’s Mediterranean trade: the 250th anniversary of the Küçük Kaynarca treaty

The Black Sea trade was a crucial factor in the economic development of the Russian state following the incorporation of Crimea and the Northern Black Sea region into the empire. Nevertheless, even prior to reaching the Black Sea and the establishment of the first harbours, the Don merchants were engaged in commercial activities utilising Greek merchant vessels. The construction of merchant and military fleets in the ports of Nikolaev and Kherson was still a distant prospect. Following the conclusion of the first trade treaties between Russia and France, Turkey, Italy and the Septinsular Republic, the Black Sea trade opened up new prospects. The Mediterranean countries welcomed the new trading power with enthusiasm, anticipating the potential benefits of trade relations with it. This became evident when wheat from Novorossiya, which enjoyed good sales not only across the Mediterranean but also beyond, was shipped to Black Sea ports. Nevertheless, the Ottoman Empire continued to be Russia’s main trading partner. Its vast territory stretched across the Balkans, Asia Minor, and North Africa, including numerous islands of the Archipelago. The southern regions of the Ottoman Empire provided Russia with a range of commodities, including fruit, rice, wine, and olive oil. In return, Russian merchants exported Russian leather, furs, iron, and wheat southwards. Following Greece’s independence in 1830, trade with this state, which had long been a conduit for Russian goods and whose sailors were renowned for their expertise in the Mediterranean, began to flourish. The advancement of the Black Sea trade was contingent upon the construction of ships, which reached a new standard following the establishment of additional ports in the Crimea and the Azov region. The evolution of the Black Sea trade has been a subject of interest for scholars, both Russian and international, who have utilized published statistical data and materials from the archives of Southern Russia. The author draws on a hitherto untapped body of sources, namely information from Russian consuls in the Archipelago, Turkey, and Greece, as well as materials from the Commercial Office of the Russian mission in Constantinople, which kept meticulous records of all commercial ships passing through the Straits. The author draws upon hitherto unexplored records from the Archive of Foreign Policy of the Russian Empire in order to expand the framework of established perceptions concerning the inception of South Russian maritime trade and the initial endeavours of the merchants of Odessa and Taganrog.

Trade Wars and Tariff Policies: Long-Term effects on Global Trade and Economic Relationship

Trade wars and Tariff policies have become serious concerns defining and affecting global trade and economic relations in the 21st century. These policies characterized by the use of tariffs and other trade barriers have impacted the world beyond just the economic or financial effect between countries involved. The paper focuses on the long-term effect of trade wars and tariff policies on global trade and economic relationship between countries. Using historical and modern trade war scenarios such as USA-China trade war, the study indicates that disruption of global supply chain, volatility of financial market, and impact on specific sectors of the country economy such as agriculture are some of the long-term impacts of these policies on global trade. In terms of the impact on economic relationship between countries, the study highlights creation of new trade agreements and diversification of trade partnership as possible effects on economic relationship between countries. It is therefore imperative for countries to diversify their trade relationship by adopting initiatives against the effects of trade war. The study concludes that while national measures could bring some political and economic results in the short term, it is important to note that global prosperity cannot be long-lasting without cooperative and stable international trade policies.

Industrialization, decarbonization, and sustainability: The role of development finance and implications for inequality

ABSTRACT Post-apartheid, the South African economy remains characterised by persistent unemployment and world-leading inequality. Transitioning towards more equal and inclusive economic outcomes is hampered by an industrial base concentrated in powerful firms in upstream resource-based carbon-intensive sectors. Pursuing industrialisation in the context of the push towards decarbonisation and sustainability by significant trading partners depends on a massive investment programme in renewable energy and specific high-emitting sectors and developing linkages between sectors to target a just, equitable, and inclusive transition that tackles the country’s deep-rooted inequalities. This paper evaluates South Africa’s main development finance institution, the Industrial Development Corporation’s role in green industrialisation in South Africa. It investigates whether the investments made and the orientation of the IDC positively impacts the structural transformation of the economy, using disclosed and publicly available data. It suggests a set of criteria with which the IDC can assess the transformational impacts of its climate change funding.

The Benefits of China Funds During Globalization and in a New World Order

Examining data from their inception in the 1990s to 2022, we find that both China mutual funds and China exchange-traded funds (ETFs) outperformed their benchmarks, the S&P 500 index fund and SPY, before the global financial crisis starting in the summer of 2007 but underperformed afterward. We show that the real benefits of China funds in the post-crisis period since May 2009 lie in their hedge effect against U.S. stock market downturns. Current policies in both countries indicate the emergence of a new world order of selective segregation in some sensitive sectors but a continuous trading partnership because each country needs the other. For example, China needs computer chips from the United States, whereas the United States needs key chip-making minerals from China. Paradoxically, this new world order creates growth opportunities in both countries, which is conducive to investing in China funds and makes it necessary for China funds to invest directly in Chinese shares to better serve the U.S. investors.

Econometric analysis of factors influencing export performance of soybean (Glycine max) production in NIGERIA: An auto-regressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach

This study presents an econometric analysis of factors influencing the export performance of soybean (Glycine max) production in Nigeria using an auto-regressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach. The study used a secondary data covering the period from 2011 to 2022. The used data were collected from CBN (Central Bank of Nigeria), NBS (National Bureau of Statistics), FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization), and the General Household Survey-Panel (GHS-P) in conjunction with the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, and the World Bank publication. The data analysis included descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Bound test, ARDL, and principal component model. The result of the ADF unit root test showed that the trade openness, consumer price index, exchange rate, population growth, world trade in oil seeds, agricultural labor, and soybean production were stationary at first difference I (1), while agricultural machinery was stationary at level I (0). The results of ARDL method showed that the consumer price index, population growth rate, world trade in oil seeds, agricultural labor, and agricultural machinery were significant factors influencing export performance of soybean in Nigeria. The trade openness and exchange rate were not different significantly from zero. The trade openness could not expand market access due to non-competitiveness of the Nigerian’s soybean. The exchange rate has lost its role with respect to soybean seed partners in international trade. The policies that would encourage exportation of this crop should be pursued by provision of storage facilities, granting of tax holidays, long term export credit at concessionary interest rate to exporters, and research activities towards improving the quality of produced agricultural products. Keywords: Export Performance, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag, Soybean Production, Nigeria

New insights into Korea's trade relations: A comprehensive FNARDL analysis with 18 global partners

This study applied the Fourier nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (FNARDL) model to investigate the bilateral J-curve effect between Korea and 18 trading partners. As a result, negative asymmetric effects of changes in the real exchange rate were detected in some cases in the short run. However, in other cases, these effects were positive or exhibited both positive and negative trends. This variation stemmed from the heterogeneity of import and export products and the diverse reactions of exporters to exchange rate fluctuations. By contrast, positive asymmetric effects were evident in most cases in the long run. Through the Fourier function, the FNARDL model better captured the J-curve effect compared to the standard NARDL model. Furthermore, by using bilateral trade data, this study mitigated the problem of aggregate misalignment, compared to using a country's gross trade data with the rest of the world. Therefore, the hidden effects of the real exchange rate were unveiled. This study's findings will enhance policymakers' awareness of formulating exchange rate management strategies.

Development of russian-mongolian foreign trade relations in food industry

In the context of shifting trade emphasis to the East, Russia attaches great importance to the development of cooperation with the Asia-Pacific countries, where Mongolia is a key partner. The purpose of the article is to reveal global trade trends and identify key areas for the development of Russian-Mongolian foreign trade relations in the food industry. Having conducted a comprehensive analysis of the economic and political factors shaping bilateral trade, the article provides insights into the challenges and opportunities for expanding cooperation in the food sector. Global trend in the food market is that China a leader. China accounts for the largest share (35%) in Russia turnover also. Mongolian trade ties with Russia are becoming closer year by year. This was demonstrated by the official visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Mongolia in September 2024. We can observe that Mongolia closely cooperates with such a region of Russia as Buryatia. Through a detailed examination of trade patterns, regulatory frameworks, and market trends, the study uncovers areas of untapped potential and identifies barriers to optimal trade flow. Drawing on industry best practices and case studies from other global food trade partnerships, the paper offers a series of practical recommendations for stakeholders. These recommendations cover infrastructure development, promotion of cultural exchange, harmonization of legal and regulatory frameworks, absorption and use of technology to create a more robust and sustainable trade ecosystem.

Transnational Governance of Soybean Land Use in South America: A Polycentric Approach

Abstract The expansion of soybean cultivation in South America has created substantial economic prosperity but has also raised a series of unsustainable land-use issues. Considering the telecoupling system (a system of socio-ecological interactions between distant places) between South America and its soybean trade partners, transnational governance could play an important role in addressing these issues. To achieve effective governance of this specific telecoupling system, this study applies a polycentric approach to improve the existing transnational governance and identify more suitable governance arrangements. This study first explores the telecoupling system and the existing transnational governance system of soybean land use in South America. It then compares the existing governance system with the polycentric approach to examine the gaps between them. Based on these analyses, suggestions for improving the governance system are provided, including increasing the involvement of major governance centres, improving public-private partnerships, and establishing a knowledge-sharing platform.