Trading Losses Research Articles

Agricultural exports and retaliatory trade actions: An empirical assessment of the 2018/2019 trade conflict

AbstractWe estimate the ex‐post agricultural trade impacts of retaliatory measures imposed by foreign countries in response to United States' Section 232 and 301 tariffs using a theoretically consistent, monthly, product line gravity equation. Retaliation led to significant US agricultural export losses of $13.5 to $18.7 billion on an annualized basis. Considerable heterogeneity exists in the average treatment effect of retaliation. First, retaliatory trade actions presented a strong within‐year seasonal impact. Nearly 70% of aggregate trade losses occurred during the US's peak export marketing season. Second, U.S. trade losses were particularly pronounced on homogeneous bulk commodities, whereas product differentiation dampened the impact of retaliation. Third, with few exceptions, the counterfactually estimated direct trade losses line up well with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) trade damage estimates for trade aid programs distributed to farmers impacted by the trade dispute. Finally, we find little evidence that U.S. exports were able to be reoriented to alternative, nonretaliating markets—an indication of high bilateral trade frictions and the destructive consequences of retaliatory trade actions.

Analysing the Impact of COVID-19 on Sri Lanka Economy

Launched in 2019 in Wuhan in china, the corona virus has now affected the entire world community. The World Health Organization has officially stated that it is currently a contagious disease in the world community(2020).Many of these countries have been affected and vaccination is now underway to control the virus. The same is true in Sri Lanka. The impact of COVID-19 on tourist, employment, household income, agriculture and small medium enterprises is revealed below. In 2019 the tourism industry contributed 4.3% to local GDP. (SLTDA , 2020) However, due to the epidemic, the closure of the country and the restrictions on tourism reduced the income of those engaged in tourism. They faced many problems. As a result, many jobs were lost. Closer of some businesses has resulted in job losses due to loss of business revenue. It also highlights the decline in family income due to the loss of small scale entrepreneurial activities and loss of trade. Although the country was initially closed, the sale and distribution of agricultural produce was problematic, but the government made it an essential service and distributed it throughout the country. Decreased export earnings, restrictions on imports, rising unemployment, trade deficits, declining foreign exchange, loss of household income, shortage of fertilizer for agriculture production, problems with bank loan repayments and all these have affected the Sri Lankan economy.

ЕКСПОРТНА ДІЯЛЬНІСТЬ В УМОВАХ ПАНДЕМІЇ

The article highlights the relevance of the study of export activities of domestic enterprises in a crisis; the dynamics of export-import operations during the pandemic is studied; the export-oriented industries with the most devastating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have been identified; the contribution of the enterprises of the mining and metallurgical complex, light, chemical branches to the volumes of commodity exports of Ukraine is considered; the impact of the crisis on the volume and structure of exports of transport services is determined, the issues are updated and the prospects for overcoming the consequences of the crisis by exporters are outlined. The coronavirus pandemic has reached almost every country in the world. Its spread has left national economies and businesses counting the costs, as governments struggle with new lockdown measures to tackle the spread of the virus. The crisis highlights the need for urgent action to cushion the pandemic’s health and economic consequences, protect vulnerable populations, and set the stage for a lasting recovery [8]. Emerging market and developing economies will be buffeted by economic headwinds from multiple quarters: pressure on weak health care systems, loss of trade and tourism, dwindling remittances, subdued capital flows, and tight financial conditions amid mounting debt. Exporters will be particularly hard hit. The article highlights the changes in the state of export activity caused by the pandemic. According to Moody’s Analytics [12] , the coronavirus pandemic could become the "black swan" of 2020, which will have a more significant impact on the world economy than the financial crisis of 2008-2009. Export is one of the most important side of the development of any country. The relevance of the chosen topic is related to the export orientation of domestic producers. Ukrainian export accounts over 30% of Ukraine’s GDP. Export is one of the most important sources of filling the state budget, as well as inflow of foreign currency. However, with the beginning of the active phase of the COVID-19 pandemic on March 25, we may see a sharp decline of export of certain commodity items and into some countries. It is stated that the GDP pf Ukraine can decline in 4-8% in comparison with 2019. The indicators of the decline of export in main industries were identified and analyzed in the article, and ways to solve this problem have been provided [2]. At this point, none of the top-15 trade partner of Ukraine in export has not changed its trade policy, although export to some counties has been reduced considerably. Restrictions, imposed as a part of fight against the pandemic, create additional difficulties for producers. Regulations in the agricultural sector are sophisticated and they lead to the additional losses in business. Uninterruptible performance of the cargo transportation is essential for proper job of the agricultural sector and the manufacturing. As a result of the pandemic supply chains are ruining, the access of the producers to the markets is going to be lost, and the demand for goods is decreasing.

Diversity of native larvivorous fish fauna during pre- and post-tsunami in Car Nicobar, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, India.

Malaria is a serious public health problem in Car Nicobar Island, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, India. Using larvivorous fishes has proved to be the cheapest method for vector management approach, with long suppression of mosquito population. This study aims to scale-up the diversity of larvivorous fishes and their potential larvivoracity to evolve an appropriate biological intervention strategy against the immature stages of malaria vectors. During 2003 (pre-tsunami) and 2014-2016 (post-tsunami), an ecological descriptive survey was carried out in the water bodies around Car Nicobar Island. Fishes were captured using fishing nets and cast nets; and placed in plastic jars and preserved in formalin solution. Fishes were identified and classified according to the available keys. Their abundance and data on the current conservation status was recorded and analyzed. Their potential larvivoracity was graded according to their feeding intensity. Pre-tsunami, a total of 27 larvivorous fish species belonging to 11 orders, 23 families and 23 genera were identified. Order Perciformes and the family Cyprinidae were the most ascendant group constituting 51.9 and 11.1%, respectively. While, 80.8% of species were preferred to inhabit the freshwater region, only 37% of species were surface feeders (SF). According to the conservation, assessment and management plan (CAMP, 1998), 44.4% species were at lower risk least concern (LRlc), while 55.6% species were at least concerned (LC) as per the IUCN, 2017 categorization. However, after the tsunami, 17 fish species had gone extinct and 10 fish species were found to remain alive in the local water bodies. Post-tsunami, the larvivoracity analysis indicated that Ophiocara aporos, Ophiocara procephala, Valamugil seheli, Channa punctata, Kuhlia rupestris, Khulia mugil, and Terapon jarbua possess high-level larvivorous potentiality in nature and are recommended for vector control in the study area. These fish species were facing several anthropogenic threats, such as human interference, loss of habitat, trade, overexploitation, and fishing. Therefore, it is important to protect the water bodies from external impact and implement the conservation strategies. Further, periodic fish fauna surveys, identification of breeding sites, scale-up of the larvivorous potentiality at the field level, creating public awareness through health education on establishment of larvivorous fish ponds and planning for mass rearing of the native fish species should be adopted as part of vector management approach in the endemic malarious region of Car Nicobar Island.

Commonwealth Countries and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Impact Analysis on Merchandise Trade

We examine how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted merchandise trade between and within Commonwealth countries. It uses bilateral trade data and a demand-driven short-term gravity model to (i) estimate trade losses, i.e. variations in intra- and extra-Commonwealth trade in goods from the pre-pandemic trend, and (ii) simulate the impact of the pandemic on potential trade flows of Commonwealth countries under three scenarios: Consensus, Pessimistic and Optimistic. The scenarios are based on macroeconomic forecasts released by internaitonal organizations in the third and fourth quarters of 2020. The simulation results suggest that developed Commonwealth countries will be impacted more than developing countries. The analysis demonstrates the interconnected nature of these economies, and highlights the need for a coordinated response for recovery.

Exititis in the UK: Gravity Estimates in the Aftermath of Brexit

The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union has had disruptive effects on international trade. As part of its ‘Global Britain’ strategy, in the wake of Brexit, the UK is pursuing a series of Free Trade Agreements with countries around the world, including Canada, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey and possibly the United States. Closer to home, the UK is under mounting pressure to dissuade Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales from seeking independence to regain the severed ties with the EU. We analyze the economic consequences of these scenarios with a state-of-the-art structural gravity model for major economies around the world. We find that ‘Global Britain’ yields insufficient trade creation to compensate for Brexit-induced trade losses. Our results also reveal that independence from the UK in itself would inflict greater post-Brexit economic harm on the devolved nations of Great Britain. Nevertheless, these effects could be entirely removed for each of these devolved nations conditional on a renewed trade deal with the EU.

The Trade Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Using a gravity-like approach, we study how Covid-19 deaths and lockdown policies affected countries’ imports from China during 2020. We find that a country’s own Covid-19 deaths and lockdowns significantly reduced its imports from China, suggesting that the negative demand effects prevailed over the negative supply effects of the pandemic. On the other hand, Covid-19 deaths in the main trading partners of a country (excluding China) induces more imports from China, partially offsetting countries’ own effects. The net effect of moving from the pre-pandemic situation to another where the main variables are evaluated at their 2020 mean is, on average, a reduction of nearly 10% in imports from China. There is also significant heterogeneity. For example, the negative own effects of the pandemic vanish when we restrict the sample to medical goods and are significantly mitigated for products with a high “work-from-home” share or a high contract intensity for products exported under processing trade, and for capital goods. We also find that deaths and lockdowns in previous months tend to increase current imports from China, partially offsetting the contemporaneous trade loss, suggesting that trade is not simply “destroyed,” but partially “postponed”.

The Sectoral Trade Losses from Financial Crises

The Sectoral Trade Losses from Financial Crises

Port Efficiency and Supply Chain: Implication for Bangladesh

Port and supply chains are closely connected to each other as a port is considered as an important node of the global supply chain. Sothe efficiency level of port has an impact on the performance of supply chain operations. Chittagong port is the principal seaport of Bangladesh and it provides a major gateway to the outside world. The cost of doing business is increasing as a result of the inefficiency in the main seaport of the country. In this paper, an effort has been taken to examine the efficiency of Chittagong Port and the causal factors of inefficiency. The impact of inefficiency at Chittagong port on the supply chain of Bangladesh has also been identified. To do this, at first a relationship has been built between port efficiency and supply chain in respect of Bangladesh.
 Relevant data has been gathered through extensive review of the literature, field surveys, interacting with top management of different business entities such as shipping agency, freight forwarder, logistics companies, exporter, importer as well as Government regulatory and monitoring bodies using both the structured and unstructured questionnaires.
 The study has revealed that theinefficiency at Chittagong port causes serious consequences on the supply chain of exporter and importer and lead to loss and disruption of trade and ultimately incur extra costs and time. This paper, therefore, recommends a substantial infrastructure improvement to Chittagong port along with other related measures in order to facilitate the supply chain of exporter and importer.

Unlocking the potential of a validated single nucleotide polymorphism array for genomic monitoring of trade in cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus).

Cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) are listed as vulnerable on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species. Threats include loss of habitat, human-wildlife conflict and illegal wildlife trade. In South Africa, the export of wild cheetah is a restricted activity under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), however, limited legal trade is permitted of animals born to captive parents. To effectively monitor the legal and illegal trade in South Africa, it was thus essential to develop a validated molecular test. Here, we designed a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array for cheetah from Double Digest Restriction Associated DNA sequencing data for individual identification and parentage testing. In order to validate the array, unrelated individuals and 16 family groups consisting of both parents and one to three offspring were genotyped using the Applied Biosystems™ QuantStudio™ 12K Flex Real-Time PCR System. In addition, parentage assignments were compared to microsatellite data. Cross-species amplification was tested in various felids and cheetah sub-species in order to determine the utility of the SNP array in other species. We obtained successful genotyping results for 218 SNPs in cheetah (A. j. jubatus) with an optimal DNA input concentration ranging from 10 to 30ng/µl. The combination of SNPs had a higher resolving power for individual identification compared to microsatellites and provided high assignment accuracy in known pedigrees. Cross-species amplification in other felids was determined to be limited. However, the SNP array demonstrated a clear genetic discrimination of two cheetah subspecies tested here. We conclude that the described SNP array is suitable for accurate parentage assignment and provides an important traceability tool for forensic investigations of cheetah trade.

Crazy gamblers or cautious investors? Evidence from a peer‐to‐peer market in China

AbstractBy data of 10,357 individual investors from Renrendai.com, an established peer‐to‐peer (P2P) lending platform in China over the period of 2011–2014, we examine whether investors’ prior investment outcomes influence their subsequent risk‐taking behavior in the credit market. We find strong evidence that a prior trading loss induces greater subsequent risk‐taking. Specifically, investors decrease their number of bids and the bidding amount; and choose listings with a lower interest rate and higher credit grade. The investors who obtain more prior gains become more cautious and take on less posterior risk. Overall, this study complements the lack of relevant research in the credit market.

PRIOR TRADING OUTCOMES AND SUBSEQUENT PORTFOLIO RISKS: USING SECURITIES DEALER IN TAIWAN AS AN EXAMPLE

This study examines whether the investment behavior of securities dealers is consistent with the predictions of the house money and break-even effects. Using the stock portfolios, dealers hold in Taiwan from 1996 to 2013 as a sample, we test the relationship between trading gains/losses and subsequent changes in portfolio risk. The results show that only gains with low risks, not all gaining situations, cause subsequent risk preferences, and regardless of the size of the trading loss, there is not a significant change in subsequent risk. Controlling dealers’ characteristics, industry competition, and the stock market condition, the evidence shows that the house money effect on dealer behavior exists after earning low-risk profits and does not support the break-even effect. These results are qualitatively unchanged after robustness checks that primarily exclude dealer overconfidence effect and ensure that the risk-taking behavior under low risks results in a decrease in gains and thus not a rational behavior.

Магазинные кражи как вид экономических потерь в розничной сетевой торговле

Магазинные кражи как вид экономических потерь в розничной сетевой торговле

The distributive impact of terms of trade shocks: The case of the oil price changes in Russia

AbstractThe halving of oil prices, during a short period between 2014 and 2015, has generated major terms of trade losses for oil exporting countries. This terms of trade shock has economy‐wide effects and significant distributive impacts. This paper, using a macro‐micro simulation model, describes and quantifies the channels of transmission from the drop of oil prices, to changes in welfare distribution at the household level for the case of the Russian Federation. The oil price reduction generates a reverse Dutch disease impacting sectoral employment, factor returns and consumption prices. It causes a contraction of employment and wages in more skill‐intensive (non‐tradable) sectors, and a reduction in consumption prices that is more pronounced for non‐food than for food goods. When these shifts are mapped to changes in incomes at the micro level, all households are affected. Poverty rates increase by 1 to 4 percentage points, depending on the poverty line used. At the US$ 10 a day threshold, 4.1 million additional people fall into poverty. Along the consumption distribution, richer people are affected more than those in the bottom 40%. However, this minor progressive impact may be reversed due to increases in unemployment and cuts in social programmes.

Integrated environmental impact and risk assessment in rural women entrepreneurs.

This study set out to reveal to what extent women entrepreneurs operating in rural areas have been affected by environmental pollution and climate change. Besides, it emphasises how much they will be affected over the next 5years throughout Turkey. The study covered rural areas of all seven regions in Turkey. Findings were analysed by using SPSS 23 programme. Women entrepreneurs were younger in less developed regions of the country, such as the Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern Anatolia, and were older in the more economically developed coastal areas. One-third of the respondents were microentrepreneurs; 12% employ five or more workers. The problems of rural women entrepreneurs are further complicated by environmental pollution and climate change. Among the significant environmental issues, women entrepreneurs endure a loss of income, loss of trade stock/goods, and loss of livestock, property damage and potable water supply. Women entrepreneurs agreed that, in the next 5years, environmental problems would adversely affect customer demand, the quality of raw materials they use and the products they offer; therefore, customer demand would reduce. On the other hand, they were divided in their opinion about whether environmental problems will be affecting their business location and the need to invest in technology and equipment. The study showed that none of the participants obtained disaster insurance, and none of them was members of an environmental organisation.

Unintended Consequences of Demand-side Housing Policies: Evidence from Capital Reallocation

We empirically investigate how households reallocate their funds in response to an austere housing-market cooling intervention—the Housing Purchase Restriction (HPR) policy in China—that depresses housing demand. Based on a proprietary dataset on individual stock accounts from a large stock brokerage firm, we find a significant increase in new stock accounts opening and capital inflow to the stock market by the affected households immediately after the HPR implementation, which absorbs 54% of the capital that would have flowed into the housing market. The affected investors more likely steer capital toward investment in the listed real estate developers, a pattern that is prevalent across investor demographics and particularly strong in HPR cities with a higher pre-policy house price growth. The capital reallocation results in a significant trading loss for affected investors. We also find listed real estate developers, even the capital-constrained and more HPR-exposed firms, do not reduce corporate investment and employment despite the negative demand outlook.

Do Trading Derivatives Classification Affect Bank Holding Company’s Earnings Volatility And Firm Value?

This study examines the differential impact of bank holding companies (BHCs) that consistently report trading gains (successful speculators) and those that consistently report no gain or trading losses (unsuccessful speculators) on earnings volatility and firm value. Under Accounting Standards Codification (ASC) 815 (previously SFAS 133- Accounting for Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities), all gains/losses related to trading derivatives are recognized in current earnings; whereas, gains/losses on hedging derivatives are netted with changes in the fair value of the underlying asset/liability with only the ineffective portion of the hedge being reported in current earnings. Given differential accounting recognition and underlying risk factors, we expect and find that current period trading gains/losses lead to greater earnings volatility; however, the relationship becomes insignificant when BHCs consistently report trading gains (successful speculators) or no gains and trading losses (unsuccessful speculation). Further we find that successful speculation is significantly negatively associated with firm value, which implies that market participants perceive trading positions held by BHCs as high-risk investments regardless of the outcome of the trading exposure. The findings of this study should be useful to business professionals, bank regulators, and accounting standard setters in determining the economic impact of current accounting standards on bank performance, investors in evaluating the costs and benefits of bank’s derivative risk management policies, and accounting academics in evaluating the impact of current accounting regulation on bank derivative use.

EXPORT-IMPORT OPERATIONS OF THE USSR AND CUSTOMS ACTIVITIES IN THE PERIOD 1941–1945

Introduction. TThe question of the functioning of the customs system during World War II is one of the little-studied but extremely interesting pages in the history of domestic finance, because foreign economic activity did not stop for a single day during the hostilities. The purpose is research on the organization of export-import operations in the USSR during 1941–1945 in the context of their scope and features of implementation and clarification of the role and importance of the customs service in ensuring these processes. Methods. In the course of work on the article were used general and special research methods: analysis, generalization, statistical, graphical, tabular. Results. The article deals with the issue of the USSR foreign economic activity during the active fighting with Germany. It is found that for objective reasons, Soviet imports were 19 times the majority of exports. This trend was absolutely natural, because the country, having suffered huge losses at the initial stage of the war, needed weapons, strategic raw materials, industrial equipment, food, fuel and more. The issue of the organization of import deliveries from the Allied countries was raised on June 29, 1941. Due to the beginning of the armed aggression of Germany, the western direction of foreign trade of the USSR was closed, both on land routes and in the waters of the Baltic and Black seas. When analyzing indicators of imports, it should be understood that the bulk of the revenue, both in physical terms and in value, falls on land-lease – forms of military-economic assistance to allied countries, first and foremost, from the US, which was a free supply of military machinery, vehicles, equipment and equipment, technologies, materials, fuel, food required for combat in World War II. Under these conditions, the importance of the customs service, which, in times of war, exercised control over export-import operations, movement across the customs border of cargoes, vehicles, passengers, postal items; fought smuggling and losses in foreign trade; administer customs payments. The factors that led to the activities of customs authorities in 1941–1945 were: conduct of hostilities; repeated decrease in foreign trade volumes; change of structure of export and import (reorientation on military and strategic goods and cargoes); reduction of passenger traffic; organization of delivery on the system of a lease-lease. The main burden of customs clearance and control fell in the customs of the northern (Arkhangelsk and Murmansk), southern (Baku, Julfin, Gaudan) and Far Eastern (Vladivostok) regions. With the start of hostilities, in the territory of Ukraine, the customs were liquidated, but from January 1944 the process of their restoration in the liberated port cities began.

The Impact of Retaliatory Tariffs on Agricultural and Food Trade

This paper analyzes the short-run trade effects of retaliatory tariffs against agriculture and food exports from the United States. The results indicate that these tariffs caused a substantial decline in U.S. agriculture and food exports and induced a reorientation of international trade patterns. We find that losses in foreign trade with retaliatory countries outweigh the gains from trade with non-retaliatory countries by more than USD 14.4 billion. Our results also indicate that non-retaliatory countries accommodated the increased demand from retaliatory countries by reorienting their trade relationships. We find that countries in South America and Europe benefited the most from these adjustments gaining more than USD 13.5 billion in additional foreign sales. The effects of retaliatory tariff increases across products vary substantially, with soybeans and meat products experiencing the most considerable redistribution effects. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Friendly fire: the trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions

SUMMARY Economic sanctions are a frequently used instrument of foreign policy. In a diplomatic conflict, they aim to elicit a change in the policies of a foreign government by damaging their economy. Sanctions, however, are also likely to affect the sanctioning country. This paper evaluates these costs, in terms of export losses, for the diplomatic crisis between the Russian Federation and 37 countries over the conflict in Ukraine that started in 2014. We first gauge the impact of the diplomatic conflict using a traditional trade framework and quantify the trade losses in a general equilibrium counterfactual analysis. Losses for the Russian Federation amount to US$53 billion or 7.4% of predicted total exports from 2014 until the end of 2015. Western sanctioning countries, however, have also been impacted with an estimated loss of US$42 billion, 0.3% of their total exports. Interestingly, we find that the bulk of the impact stems from products that are not directly targeted by Russian retaliation, an effect that we coin friendly fire – an unintended, largely self-inflicted cost for Western sanctioning countries. We investigate the underlying mechanism at the product- and firm-level data. Results indicate that the drop of Western exports has not been driven by a change in Russian consumers’ preferences, but mainly by an increase in country risk affecting international transactions with Russia.