Trade Links Research Articles

Genomic diversity of Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli isolates recovered from human and poultry in Australia and New Zealand, 2017 to 2019.

We used genomic and epidemiological data to assess and compare the population structure and origins of Campylobacter, a major foodborne pathogen, in two neighbouring countries with strong trade and cultural links, similar poultry production systems and frequent movement of people and food products. The most common sequence types (STs) differed between Australia and New Zealand, with many unique to each country. Over half of all STs were represented by a single isolate. Multidrug-resistant (MDR) genotypes were detected in 0.8% of all samples, with no MDR isolates detected in poultry. Quinolone and tetracycline resistant ST6964 was prevalent in New Zealand (10.6% of C. jejuni). Closely related isolates suggested some similar food sources or contacts. We have shown that there is little genetic overlap in human and poultry STs of Campylobacter between the countries, which highlights that this common foodborne pathogen has domestic origins in Australia and New Zealand.

The macro driving factors of co-movement of RMB with other currencies in FX markets

The co-movement of the RMB exchange rate with other currencies highlights the global standing of the RMB and its significance in FX markets. This paper employs the rational expectations present-value model of exchange rates to identify the macroeconomic factors influencing this co-movement. Our finding reveals a general increase in the RMB's co-movement with other currencies, especially after the 2015 reform of the RMB exchange rate regime, known as the “811 Reform”. Factors such as the synchronizations of output and monetary policy, as well as global market sentiment significantly, can affect this co-movement significantly. However, this explanatory power is relatively weaker compared to trade linkage. The market-oriented reforms in the RMB exchange rate regime and the liberalization of capital account in China have indeed strengthened this co-movement. Additionally, various international cooperation policies taken by the Chinese government have demonstrated promotional effects. This study echoes the traditional exchange rate determination theory and offers some policy implications for the internationalization of the RMB.

Supply chain adjustments to tariff shocks: Evidence from firm trade linkages in the 2018-2019 U.S. trade war

We use the 2018-2019 U.S. trade war to examine how supply chains adjustments to a tariff cost shock affect imports. Using confidential trade data, we show that the decline in imports of tariffed goods during the trade war was driven primarily by the exit of U.S. firms from import markets, discontinued buyer–supplier relationships, and reduced entry into importing. However, tariffed products where imports were concentrated in fewer suppliers exhibited smaller declines in import growth.

Proximity to War: The Stock Market Response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

AbstractWe identify a “proximity penalty” in the stock market response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine: the closer countries are to Ukraine, the lower their equity returns in a four‐week window around the start of the war. This result holds even at the firm level within Ukraine's neighbors. Trade linkages explain two‐thirds of the proximity penalty. We attribute the remainder—1.1 percentage points in equity returns per 1,000 km of extra distance—to military disaster risk. Evidence from other financial data, geopolitical risk indicators, and aid flow statistics supports the relevance of military tail risk as a spillover channel.

Potential for Cooperation between Russia and MERCOSUR under Sanctions

Under the pressure of the unprecedented economic sanctions, the Russian Federation faces the tasks of reformatting its foreign economic strategy, transforming its trade policy, changing supply chains, and expanding cooperation with the partners that maintain economic neutrality, particularly with the countries in Latin America, the Asia-Pacific region, and the Middle East. The purpose of this research is to determine to what extent economic sanctions can serve as a factor for activating trade and economic relations between Russia and the countries of MERCOSUR as the most significant potential partners from the Latin American region. The research question of the article is to what extent it is possible to sooth the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy by stimulating trade links with MERCOSUR countries. The article attempts to compare the relative significance of Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay as trade and economic partners for Russia at the time of sanctions. The article identifies factors contributing to the growth of potential of mutual trade and economic cooperation and those constraining it; provides an assessment of the current development of trade and investment relations between the parties; calculates indicators to determine the possibility of substituting the lost markets for export-import operations by the new ones.

Central banks, economic statecraft and offshore banking: Comparing financial internationalization strategies in Latvia and Estonia

Small states play a critical role in the operation of the Global Wealth Chains, storing capital assets and funnelling financial flows. However, the knowledge of how such practices of financial transit emerge remains scant. Focussing on the 1990s as the formative decade of post-Soviet capitalism, the article focuses on the variegated financial internationalization in the Baltics, as Latvia developed a vibrant offshore banking sector, whereas Estonia pursued complete Westernization in bank ownership. Challenging the literature that relates the emergence of Baltic offshore finance with right-wing politics, and existing trade and cultural links with Russia, the article argues that the varieties of financial internationalization in the Baltics were due to ‘economic statecraft’ by the Central Banks (CBs). Drawing upon a survey of CB reports, parliamentary speeches, press archives, memoirs, and elite interviews, the article argues that the Baltic CBs’ path-setting decisions shaped the two distinct financial internationalization paths through three interventions: currency reforms, agenda setting, and banking regulation. Drawing on the literature on social embeddedness of CBs, the article attributes the differences in the two CB approaches to their informal alliances with broader society – domestic financiers in Latvia and the government in Estonia.

Comparative Dynamics of the Belt and Road Initiative: Unveiling the Unique Position and Implications of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

The Belt and Road Initiative introduced by China is one of the biggest infrastructure and development projects striving to facilitate commercial exchanges and stimulate growth through construction, trade, and investment links across countries and continents. Under this grand framework, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) arose as a significant and novel dimension of the deepening bilateral relationship between Beijing and Islamabad Meanwhile CPEC plays a strategic role as a critical artery that aims to redefine the regional dynamics. This article undertakes analytical research to disclose the position as well as consequences of CPEC among other projects comprising the BRI on a global scale. Through fine-grained analysis of the political, economic, and social dimensions of CPEC somehow positioned next to other BRI projects, this study can identify the uniqueness of CPEC at the level of its ambitions, challenges, and implications on both regional geopolitics and economic frameworks. The paper draws upon a combination of qualitative and quantitative data, comprising CPEC project results, bilateral agreements, and economic indicators, among others, to demonstrate how CPEC functions as a driving force towards economic transformation in Pakistan with associated implications for international trade corridors. Moreover, the research sheds light on the geopolitical strategies behind China’s investments and brings to the surface how CPEC is not only employed in economic affairs but rather military and geopolitical interests for China in South Asia as well. Such a comparative study assists in the process of knowing the multilayered nature of the BRI, and bringing forth those emerging insights on how projects like CPEC can form the structure of global economic and governance engagement of the 21st century.

Re-examining international spillovers: An Asian perspective

This study investigates the transmission and the business cycle implications of Chinese export shocks to other Asian economies. Based on a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model, we provide evidence that a positive export shock originating from China simultaneously stimulates aggregate demands for both China and other Asian economies. The PVAR model takes into account three main sources of potential interactions among ten Asian economies. Simulations from a two-country DSGE model featuring endogenous trade links suggest that positive trade spillover is essential to explain the macroeconomic comovement pattern. Our findings further indicate the importance of the Chinese economy to business cycle synchronization.

Prospects for further development of logistics and trade in Central Asian Countries

This paper examines the conditions of foreign trade of the Central Asian countries and their impact on economic growth. Currently, the transport corridors of Central Asia are at the peak of their demand. The current positive changes and achievements of the region are considered. Attention is drawn to the geopolitical trends that create conditions for the development of alternative transport corridors and infrastructure projects. Special attention is paid to improving transport connectivity. It is proposed to develop transit and transport potential and increase the production of finished products. The comprehensive analysis carried out in this work allows us to take a broader look at the potential of the region and propose measures for its full development. Due to the growing role of Central Asia in the international arena, this paper also examines the impact of foreign policy on the development of the region’s economy. The strategic location of Central Asia between China, Russia, Iran and other countries makes the region an important partner in international trade and transport links. The paper analyses the current positive developments in the region, such as the creation of new transport corridors, the development of logistics infrastructure and the strengthening of trade relations with other countries. Special attention is paid to projects for the development of regional integration and economic unions, which contribute to improving competitiveness and economic stability in Central Asia.

Archaeoparasitology and pathoecology of Buchta Nakhodka, a medieval settlement in the far north of Western Siberia, dating from the 13th century

Buchta Nakhodka, which was inhabited by the Northern Samoyeds, is one of the few sites in the far north of Western Siberia that has been explored archaeologically and archaeoparasitologically. Many factors complicate research work in this region; therefore, any additional study of known sites can provide valuable data. Here, we report the results of soil samples from the cultural layer taken during the excavation of structures of the medieval settlement of Buchta Nakhodka. Six types of human and animal parasite eggs were found in the studied samples. The extent of contamination and number of parasite species varied, depending on the sampling location. The analysis of research results in the historical and archaeological context enabled the reconstruction of certain nutritional habits of the population of Buchta Nakhodka in the 13th century and such activities as hunting, fishing, and dog breeding, as well as an evaluation of the level of hygiene and possible population movements and trade links with neighbouring settlements.

Evolution of Food Trade Networks from a Comparative Perspective: An Examination of China, the United States, Russia, the European Union, and African Countries.

In the intricate landscape of the global food system, a nuanced understanding of dynamic evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of food trade network is essential for advancing insights into the African food trade and maintaining the food security of Africa. This paper constructs a framework for analyzing the food trade network from a comparative perspective by comparing and analyzing the evolution of food trade networks in China, the United States, Russia, the European Union, and African countries. The development trend of food trade between China, Russia, the United States, the European Union, and African countries is relatively good. China, the United States, Russia, and the European Union export far more food to African countries than they import, and bilateral food trade plays an important role in alleviating food supply shortages in Africa. The food trade networks between China, the United States, Russia, the European Union, and African countries exhibit a butterfly-shaped structure centered in Africa, and the overall intensity of bilateral trade linkages is gradually increasing. France has the greatest control over the food trade network between China, the United States, Russia, the European Union, and African countries, and the influence of the United States on the food trade network between China, the United States, Russia, the European Union, and African countries is increasing. China's independence in the food trade network between China, the United States, Russia, the European Union, and African countries is enhanced, but its control ability is limited. The impact of differences in total population, differences in food production, and geographical borders on the trade network between China, the United States, the European Union, and African countries tends to decrease, while the influence of differences in the proportion of agricultural employment, differences in the arable land available for food production, and institutional distance tends to increase.

What determines global sentiment towards China’s Belt and Road Initiative?

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is one of the most important geopolitical phenomena of this century. It signals China’s increasing clout overseas while focussing on trade links and infrastructure in general. An important question which has not yet been fully answered is how different countries perceive this initiative, whether they are part of it or not. To answer this question, a large media repository, GDELT, is used to assess each country’s perceptions of the BRI and how they evolve over time. The main finding is that global sentiment on the BRI deteriorated significantly in most geographies from 2017 to 2022, although generally still in positive territory. Further, an empirical analysis is conducted to test the relationship between individual countries’ sentiment towards the BRI and three possible determinants, i.e. economic linkages with China, geopolitical closeness with China, and a country’s perceptions and attitudes about some China-related issues. The results suggest that import dependence on China seems to worsen the image of the BRI. Instead, a country’s geopolitical alignment with China, whether by being a member of the BRI or by voting at the United Nations (UN) like China, is positively correlated with its perceptions of the BRI.

Analysis of lithium trade patterns and influencing factors in the regions along the "Belt and Road".

Lithium has broad applications in several emerging industries and fields, including high energy batteries, energy storage, aerospace, and controlled nuclear reactions. Currently, the discrepancy between the supply and demand for lithium resources increases, and its distribution is uneven. Within the framework of the "Belt and Road" Initiative, the lithium trade pattern evolves constantly. However, the trade pattern of lithium in the nations along the "Belt and Road" is likely to face substantial repercussions in modern world of unilateral protectionism and geopolitical conflicts. Taking the social network analysis approach as a tool, this study first examines the characteristics of the lithium trade network structure as it has evolved over the years in the Belt and Road countries, from 2000 to 2022. Additionally, this study uses the quadratic assignment problem approach to analyze the factors influencing the evolution of the lithium trade network. The study shows that: (1) The spatial patterns of import and export trade network of lithium in countries along the route has a certain path dependence. And the market is mainly concentrated in East Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, South America and Southeast Asia. (2) The network density of the countries along the route has increased year after year, but it remains low. And the fluctuation of the network's reciprocity has increased, with a huge magnitude of variation. The number of core countries in the network has decreased over time, but the core-periphery structure has stayed largely steady. China, Chile, and South Korea are the network's main node countries. (3) Regarding the influencing factors, the differences in economic and technological development between these countries have a beneficial impact on the formation of lithium trade; whether or not regional trade agreements have been signed, the differences about average tax rates for mineral products, bordering countries, and similar languages and cultures are all conducive to the establishment of close trade links. The contribution of this essay is of paramount importance for understanding different countries' role along the Belt and Road in the lithium trade network pattern, and promoting regional trade cooperation.

Trade Complementarity and Substitutivity between China and Nigeria in Exports: Evidence from the Data in 1996-2022

This study examined the China and Nigeria’s export relations with a view to determining the mutuality of the trade benefits to both countries. Using data for the period 1996 to 2022 from World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) database, the paper estimated four distinct measures of trade relations (the revealed comparative advantage index, the trade integration index, the complementarity index and the export similarity index) and then analyzed the effect of trade complementarity and substitutivity on exports of Nigeria and China respectively. Based on the findings, China’s top export destination in sub-Saharan Africa is Nigeria, and one of Nigeria’s top export destinations globally is China. Furthermore, the comparative advantage index showed that China has a comparative advantage in manufactured goods, capital goods, consumer goods, intermediate goods, and mechanical and electrical goods, whereas Nigeria has a comparative advantage in fuels and basic materials. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s trade integration index showed that Nigeria’s trade connections to China are weak, while China’s trade integration index showed that its ties to Nigeria are strong. This implies that China depends less on Nigeria’s exports and that Nigeria is more dependent on China’s exports. In addition, Nigeria’s and China’s export structures differed significantly, but it was determined that these trade links are advantageous to both parties and increased their respective export trade. However, the two countries’ trade rivalry will jeopardize their mutual benefits from trade in addition to sharply lowering the volume of their respective exports.

Information Communication Technology's Influence on Exchange Rate

Investigated in this study is the influence of information communication technology (ICT) on the exchange rate in Zambia from 2010 to 2021. The research methods employed involve using descriptive, exploratory, and experimental designs. The results are reported focusing on ICT acquisition, usage, and production in relation to the performance of the exchange rate: imports of ICTs from the Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA) represented the uptake while the performance of the exchange rate from the Bank of Zambia represented actual volatilities. It was further discovered that the ICTs influence movements in financial transactions by increasing the quantum of transactions. The impact on the movements of currencies advertently affects the exchange rate causing volatility. The role of ICTs in the amalgamation of markets, trade linkages, and openness, is key. Conclusively, ICTs influence the exchange rate: inherent in productive means and permeate consumptive aspects of ICTs and financial transactions. The main limitation arose from data collection on ICT software and services due to lack of a consolidated data capturing information system.

Examining current regional intensity of trade in Africa: How strong are the trade linkages and implications for intra-Africa trade in the African Continental Free Trade Area

Examining current regional intensity of trade in Africa: How strong are the trade linkages and implications for intra-Africa trade in the African Continental Free Trade Area

Trade networks and corporate ESG performance: Evidence from Chinese resource-based enterprises

Trade network connects enterprises together, while its impact on corporate ESG performance is unknown. Drawing on unbalanced panel data of resource-based enterprises in China from 2009 to 2021, this study decomposes the trade network into purchasing network and sales network based on trade directions, and explores their impact on corporate ESG performance and the mechanisms involved. The findings indicate that: (1) The trade networks exhibit a negative correlation with corporate ESG performance. Meanwhile, purchasing network demonstrates a more pronounced adverse impact on corporate ESG than sales network. After a series of endogeneity tests, the above results still hold. (2) Heterogeneity analysis shows that trade networks have a more significant effect on the ESG performance of state-owned enterprises, mature enterprises and heavily polluting enterprises. And the most pronounced negative effect is observed in the governance (G) component of ESG. (3) Mechanism analysis reveals that trade networks negatively influence corporate ESG performance by impeding the progress of green innovation and internal control. (4) Accelerating digital transformation and intensifying government environmental regulations can mitigate the inhibitory impact of trade networks on corporate ESG performance. This study provides theoretical support and empirical evidence for resource-based enterprises to enhance ESG performance while reinforcing trade linkages.

Cross-border ripples: investigating stock market responses to Israel-Hamas conflict in trading partner nations using event study method

PurposeThe study will add to the current discourse on the Israel-Hamas conflict by examining the impact of the war on the stock markets of trading partners. Stock market returns inevitably rise as globalization keeps integrating financial markets and economies around the world. Thus, the impact of war is assessed across a range of indicators that are similar in some way, such as geographic location, political climate or economic standing. Thus, the goal of this study is to investigate how the Israel-Hamas war affects trading partner countries' stock performance.Design/methodology/approachEvent study methodology is applied using Morgan Stanley Capital Index (MSCI) as a benchmark index. The influence of the Israel-Hamas war on the world's major stock markets is evaluated using a market model. The study takes into account Israel and its 23 trading partners. To capture the locational asymmetry in the outcome, the countries are further categorized according to their geographic locations. The official declaration of war came on October 7, 2023, a non-trading day. Consequently, October 9, 2023, is designated as the event day in this study. The data was gathered between January 1, 2023, and December 31, 2023, with an estimation period of 140 days taken into account to minimize bias.FindingsAsymmetric response is shown among the nations due to their economic standing, geographic proximity and trading links with Israel. While Austria, Greece, Egypt, Palestine and Israel had the greatest negative effects, Argentina, Japan and Chile saw significant beneficial effects. The remaining nations had little effect. The market quickly adjusted itself, eliminating anomalous returns.Research limitations/implicationsTaking into account the topic's criticality, the current work has certain limits. The study has used the daily data to limit its reach to the stock market exclusively. In the future, academics can combine high-frequency stock market data with data from other macroeconomic variables, such as currency or different commodities markets, to further their research. Furthermore, a cross-national comparison of the impact in terms of direction and intensity regarding developing global groups such as I2U2, LEVANT, BRICS, MIKTA, SCO, NATO, SAARC and OECD can provide a more comprehensive understanding in this context. To gain insight into the durability and adaptation of financial systems over time, longitudinal studies could be conducted to monitor the long-term effects of geopolitical crises on the stock markets of trading partner countries.Practical implicationsBy better managing investment portfolios and evaluating potential risks associated with trading partners involved in such conflicts, investors and businesses can lessen the impact of geopolitical tensions on stock market performance. These results contribute to our understanding of how geopolitical conflicts affect stock markets.Originality/valueThis research provides an extensive analysis of the global impact of Israel-Hamas tensions on stock market volatility by taking into account trading partners. This allows for the investigation of how various market structures and economic systems react to geopolitical turmoil. The present study is one of the first attempts to look into how disturbances in one region might affect continents to better understand the dynamics of global trade and economic interdependencies.

Heterogeneity analysis of food supply-demand patterns and land carbon loss under different dietary structures in China

China’s diets are undergoing a profound transformation, and carbon storage loss generated by dietary structure change is increasingly serious, accompanied by concerns about sustainable diets and food supply–demand conflicts. This paper designed a dual ‘material–environmental’ framework based on the dietary structure classification, around which we conducted the heterogeneity analysis of food supply–demand patterns and land carbon loss, and then tracked hotspot diets of trade-generated carbon loss through the multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model. The research found that 31 provinces could be classified into five clusters with obvious spatial agglomeration patterns, most of which still had a high proportion of staches, but also showed an evolutionary trend towards diversified compositions. Driven by dietary structure, the national food supply–demand match under the material accessibility dimension showed barely balanced overall, while in terms of environmental effects, ecosystems lost significant amounts of carbon stocks, with losses of 331 and 950 Tg11Tg refers to teragram, a weight unit, 1 Tg = 106 t = 1012 g of vegetation carbon and soil organic carbon, respectively, which together accounted for 14 percent of the total carbon stocks in the vegetation and topsoil carbon pools. The clusters to which Henan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong belong were tracked as hot dietary clusters exhibiting hotspots in inter-regional trade, contributing to carbon loss in external provinces through trade linkages. Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia were at a low level of supply–demand balance but played the role of a carbon storage loser, while Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu not only possessed higher balance levels but also pulled more external carbon loss. China's food system should optimise internal cropping structures and monitor external land use conversion. It is equally important to track food consumption side rights and responsibilities.

Currency internationalization with Chinese characteristics: Is capital‐account convertibility required for the renminbi to acquire reserve‐currency status?

AbstractIt is widely assumed that the renminbi (RMB) cannot acquire a meaningful place in central bank reserve portfolios without full liberalization of China's capital account. We argue that the RMB can in fact develop into an international reserve currency in the absence of capital‐account convertibility. Trade and investment links can drive use despite limited access to Chinese financial markets. But this route to currency internationalization requires policy support. China must provide access to RMB through loans and the People's Bank of China (PBoC) currency swaps. It must ensure the convertibility of RMB into US dollars in offshore markets. It must provide RMB services at a stable and predictable price. Currency internationalization without full capital‐account liberalization thus requires the RMB to be backed by dollar reserves, which the PBoC consequently will continue to hold and use. Hence, we do not foresee RMB internationalization as supplanting dollar dominance.