Trade Links Research Articles

As Time Goes By: colonialism, the revision of the past and Brexit

One component in the vote to leave the European Union was a nostalgic image of Empire and the assertion by Brexiteers like Boris Johnson that after Britain had left the EU new trade links would be made with countries who were members of the Commonwealth, countries that Britain had previously governed as colonies. The foundation for this idea was the understanding that Britain’s governing of its colonies had been benign and, indeed, that British control had brought with it the benefits of civilisation. This view of the British empire was pervasive in the UK. This article focuses on the sitcom As Time Goes By in which the male protagonist, Lionel, is writing a book about his time in Kenya in the 1950s and 1960s. Everybody who reads the ms considers it boring. Yet Kenya during those decades was subject to a grass-roots uprising against the British colonists known as Mau Mau and Kenya was granted independence in 1963 by which time large numbers of white settlers had left the country. The portrayal of Lionel’s book as boring elides this history and reinforces the perception that British colonialism was well received by the indigenous population.

Features of the Car Import into Primorsky Region

Primorsky Region is actively involved into foreign trade with neighboring Asian countries. For past 30 years, the Region has been an important trade and logistics link in the chain of Russian automobile imports, and the center for sales and service of imported passenger cars in the Far East. Because of the export restrictions from a several countries that directly affected the car market, there have been changes in recent months in the field of car imports that are significant for all market participants — consumers, intermediaries, manufacturers-exporters. The purpose of the study is to update trends in the import of passenger cars in the Primorsky Region and assess current events in terms of the developing this area of economic activity. The article reflects the features of car imports from Japan and the Republic of Korea up to 2021, analyzes the changes that have occurred in the field of car imports in the Primorsky Region in 2022-2023, and considers the aspect of increasing car imports from China that is relevant for the current stage of the car market development. The articles main conclusion is that the car market that had developed in the Primorsky Region by 2021, offering mainly used Japanese cars, will diversify its structure and sales conditions from 2022, including through the cars import from China. At the same time, Vladivostok has many reasons to maintain its status as a center of automobile trade in the Far East.

Razvoj inicijative "Pojas i put" u Srbiji

The paper presents a general overview of the projects, observed according to the sectors of the Serbian economy, which were implemented in Serbia through the Belt and Road Initiative or are in the phase of implementation, planning or signed memoranda between China and Serbia. This initiative to strengthen trade, infrastructure and investment links between China and the countries of Asia, Africa and Europe, through a network of land and waterways, has affected the landscape of global trade, investment and financing, thereby expanding China's influence in the world. As a European country which is not a member of the European Union, Serbia found itself in a specific situation and was able to independently manage its relations with China and conclude contracts directly. In addition to the European Union as the main economic partner, Serbia is also turning to China, so this cooperation has a growing trend in the form of Chinese investments in Serbia, which are being investigated here, in contrast to the almost non-existent implementation of Serbian projects in China. Chinese companies in Serbia are actively building infrastructure, investing in the energy sector as well as the privatization and renewal of production of the former metallurgical giants of Serbia, and more. So, despite the large trade deficit with China, this initiative brings tangible economic and social benefits at the local level, creating new opportunities for employment and income generation in the community. That is why it can be said that the Belt and Road Initiative contributed to the development of cooperation between Serbia and China.

Supply Chain Adjustments to Tariff Shocks: Evidence from Firm Trade Linkages in the 2018-2019 U.S. Trade War

Supply Chain Adjustments to Tariff Shocks: Evidence from Firm Trade Linkages in the 2018-2019 U.S. Trade War

Re-evaluating Turkey’s global relationships and its shift toward the South-East Asian region

Turkey is strategically positioned at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and Africa, and is considered an important geopolitical actor in the global arena. Since Turkey embraced neoliberal economic policies in the 1980s, it has emerged as one of the leading emerging economies with major trade links with the US, Russia, EU, and Asia. Turkey has been a longstanding member of the NATO alliance and signed the European Customs Union Agreement in 1995. With the advent of Asia as the global economic powerhouse, Turkey’s foreign and economic policy horizons today extend to the Asia-Pacific Region. Turkey plays a key role in China’s Belt and Road Initiative and with the launching of the Asia Anew Initiative in late 2019, Ankara has redoubled efforts to forge closer ties with the ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and with ASEAN itself. This paper will explore and evaluate Turkey’s foreign policy over the last two decades and the shift from the principle of Strategic Depth to that of Strategic Autonomy. The article will also review Turkey’s current change in international orientation and its international re-orientation toward Asia.

Carbon and energy footprint analysis of Hungarian transportation activities using a multi-region input-output model

The Hungarian transport sector plays a significant role in economic development. Inland transport, air transport, and water transport are the main three modes of moving people and goods in Hungary. Therefore, these three modes affect the environment by contributing a significant amount of carbon and energy footprint. In the literature, there is no such study that identifies the environmental impacts of the Hungarian transport sector. Therefore, the lifecycle-based carbon and energy footprint impacts of Hungarian transport practices were assessed in this study, which took into account international trading links with the rest of the world. The Hungarian economy was modeled as part of a multi-region input-output (MRIO) life cycle evaluation system, which included 40 major economies, including the Hungarian, United States, China, Russia, and others and the rest of the world (ROW) nations. According to the WIOD database definition, each country's economy comprises 35 major industries. The global system of the world economy is equalized by a total of 1435 sectors (41 × 35 = 1435). The method is unique in that the MRIO model was constructed in a stochastic manner, taking into account global trade-related uncertainties. Using data mining and predictive simulation methods, the investigation focused on top carbon-emitting and energy-consuming sectors and countries. The outcome illustrated that Hungary has the highest overall carbon footprint (CFP) and total energy footprint (EFP) contributions, respectively, with 59.94% and 45.18%. Furthermore, the inland transportation market and electricity, gas, and water supply were found to be the most dominant industries in terms of overall CFP, accounting for 46.32% and 18.35%, respectively. With 34.64% of the overall effects, the coke/refined petroleum/nuclear fuel market has the highest proportion of the total energy footprint. The transportation sector has a significant role in the Hungarian economy because of the unique geographic location of the country. In another word, road and train modes are considered the dominant mode of moving goods in Hungary. Therefore, the inland transportation market is the highest contributor sector to the total share of CFP and ranked second in sharing the EFP.

Prevailing Status of Agricultural Trade between India and European Union

This study analysed the current scenario of India-EU trade, composition of trade, growth and instability of agricultural commodities during the period 1997-98 to 2021-22. India’s agricultural export to the EU was US $ 4.7 billion and imported US $ 1.3 billion from the EU in 2021-22. Netherlands, Italy and Germany were three most important EU members for Indian agricultural trade. India mainly exported fishes and marine products, coffee, tea, meat, spices and cotton to the EU. Vegetable oil, raw hides, skin and leather and animal fodder were imported by India from the EU. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and Cuddy-Della Valle Index (CDVI) for instability indicated that the total trade between India and the EU have increased consistently with annual growth rate of 6.59 per cent and instability value of 13.97. This provides impetus to policymakers to establish close trade links with counterparts of EU.

Global Value Chains and Regional Connection: Asia’s Shifting Inter- and Intra-Regional Trade Linkages

The global value chain (GVC) mainly concerns the geographic dispersion and integration of the production-consumption system in the contemporary world economy. However, little work has been done conceptually regarding the GVC’s relationship with macro-regions like Asia, or in conjunction with regionalization. To address the gap, this paper examines the regional connection and interaction within Asia and beyond from the lens of GVCs. It introduces a GVC understanding of the global economy and discusses how the macro-regional dynamics can be comprehended in the context of GVCs and various interactions of intra- and extra-regional firms. The study proposes an analytical framework for GVC configurations relative to inter-regional and intra-regional connections. The paper then examines the evolving nature of Asia’s regional connection as the most dynamic region with contemporary GVCs. It specifically analyzes international trade networks in two GVC-intensive sectors, i.e., textile and apparel, and electronics, and highlights how inter- and intra-regional trade networks vary across sectors and product types and have changed over time. The study concludes by discussing Asia’s future regional connection amid post-pandemic uncertainties over GVCs.

Trade Links: New Rules for a New World by James Bacchus Cambridge University Press, 2022

Trade Links: New Rules for a New World by James Bacchus Cambridge University Press, 2022

Trade and Linkages Using Input-Output Approach: An Empirical Investigation of Bangladesh

Employing a variant of the open-static Leontief model and a 53-sector input-output table, the paper identifies a variant of the key sectors in the Bangladesh economy in terms of trade linkages. The concepts of gross and net linkages are introduced and the analysis is extended to both current (flow) and capital (stock) accounts. On the gross linkage criterion, only a handfnl of sectors emerge as key sectors with three or more linkages. These sectors are from within the manufacturing and services categories. This is also the case with sectors having two strong linkages. Agricultural sectors do not feature at all. A transition from gross to net linkages changes the rankings quite significantly. Most agricultural sectors show two strong linkages in the flow account. The findings suggest that Bangladeshi export sector· is typically undiversified in that it relies heavily on agriculture and related industries, with jute and jute textiles accounting for over 70 percent of net export earnings. Not surprisingly, most sectors in the industrial complex are net importers and the domestic production of industrial goods is highly importintensive.

Regional Dynamics in Global Production Sharing: Evidence from "Factory South America".

The global valuechain (GVC) literature has recognized the regional linkages of global production sharing while overlooking some regions across the globe. This gap may leave unanswered the question of how South American countries' regional trade linkages have changed amid the acceleration of globalization. This study, thus, investigates the regional linkages of global production sharing of South America by relying on value-added trade measures. Additionally, we develop a pioneering value-added hubness measure to illustrate the degree of relative market dependence between countries. The findings suggest that intra-regional forward linkages in South America have increased over time, but there are signs of a re-orientation towards Asia. China's influence extended beyond Asia, and together with the United States, China became an important hub-nation for South America. Brazil appears as a potential regional hub, mainly through its domestic market and not domestic production. Therefore, the study adds to GVC literature with insights about a missing region, reveals signs of changes in the interconnections between regional blocs, and enriches the research on the hub-and-spoke trade systems.

Multiclonal human origin and global expansion of an endemic bacterial pathogen of livestock.

Most new pathogens of humans and animals arise via switching events from distinct host species. However, our understanding of the evolutionary and ecological drivers of successful host adaptation, expansion, and dissemination are limited. Staphylococcus aureus is a major bacterial pathogen of humans and a leading cause of mastitis in dairy cows worldwide. Here we trace the evolutionary history of bovine S. aureus using a global dataset of 10,254 S. aureus genomes including 1,896 bovine isolates from 32 countries in 6 continents. We identified 7 major contemporary endemic clones of S. aureus causing bovine mastitis around the world and traced them back to 4 independent host-jump events from humans that occurred up to 2,500 y ago. Individual clones emerged and underwent clonal expansion from the mid-19th to late 20th century coinciding with the commercialization and industrialization of dairy farming, and older lineages have become globally distributed via established cattle trade links. Importantly, we identified lineage-dependent differences in the frequency of host transmission events between humans and cows in both directions revealing high risk clones threatening veterinary and human health. Finally, pangenome network analysis revealed that some bovine S. aureus lineages contained distinct sets of bovine-associated genes, consistent with multiple trajectories to host adaptation via gene acquisition. Taken together, we have dissected the evolutionary history of a major endemic pathogen of livestock providing a comprehensive temporal, geographic, and gene-level perspective of its remarkable success.

Performance Evaluations and Influencing Factors of the Agricultural Product Trade Supply Chain between China and Central Asian Countries

With the development of global economic integration and the continuous promotion of the “Belt and Road” initiative, the agricultural trade supply chain has become an important part of the agricultural trade supply chain of countries along the “Belt and Road”. Through transnational connectivity, the level of economic and trade cooperation has been improved, providing favorable conditions for the development of a high-quality trade supply chain serving broad areas. Therefore, building a sound and stable supply chain of agricultural products has important practical and theoretical significance for improving the level of economic and trade cooperation of countries along the “Belt and Road” and promoting China’s high-quality economic development. The results show that the trend line of agricultural product trade supply chain performance between China and Central Asia shows a significant downward trend (non-Data Envelopment Analysis efficiency still accounts for a large proportion, and the comprehensive benefits are affected by economies of scale, which is mainly related to the economic conditions of Central Asian countries). The influencing factors of each dimension have significant positive effects on the performance of the agricultural trade supply chain between China and Central Asia to varying degrees and can maximize the performance of China’s Central Asian agricultural trade supply chain through the influencing factors of each dimension of Central Asian countries within the optimal promotion interval. This study recommends improving the information processing efficiency of both parties, predicting market demand, and shortening relevant payment and trade links to improve the efficiency of logistics and transportation between China and Central Asian countries. China’s assistance to the logistics and transportation infrastructure of Central Asian countries can effectively strengthen the connectivity between China and Central Asian countries to promote the overall performance level of the supply chain and achieve mutually beneficial results.

Cross‐country linkages between ASEAN and non‐ASEAN‐RCEP member states: A global VAR analysis

AbstractThe complex global value chains underlying the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) raise an important question on the macroeconomic (output, inflation, exchange rate, and interest rate) exposure of ASEAN to output shocks in the non‐ASEAN‐RCEP members, within the context of expanded regional architecture. This paper uses quarterly data from 1995 to 2018 to estimate a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model, specially constructed for the RCEP. The GVAR model disentangles the effects and spillovers from output shocks originating in the non‐ASEAN‐RCEP through various trade channels – direct and indirect, and total exports and foreign value‐added (FVA). The model also quantifies the impact of global (the price of oil and materials) shocks on ASEAN through trade linkages. The output shocks in the non‐ASEAN‐RCEP have persistent effects on output growth in ASEAN when transmitted through the intermediary FVA channel than the export channel. The FVA channel is also important for propagating global shocks in the form of oil and material prices. The findings confirm that output in ASEAN is also highly exposed to output shocks originating in the non‐ASEAN‐RCEP economies. The FVA trade channel is vital for explaining the spillovers from the regional output shocks and global price shocks.

Interpreting Medieval Scottish Church Stained Glass Windows: Decoration and Colour in Relation to Liturgy and Worship

During the Protestant Reformation of 1560, most of Scotland’s Catholic churches faced widespread destruction. Items considered idolatrous were targeted and destroyed. Significantly, stained glass windows were smashed and buried on site, or otherwise left to decay, and were replaced by austere, plain glass. In recent decades, archaeological excavations have recovered shards of this glass from several ecclesiastical sites across Scotland, allowing scholars the opportunity to better understand medieval liturgy and worship. Scientific analyses have been conducted to determine the ingredients used in manufacturing this glass, and to infer a place and timeframe of origin. These studies have proven invaluable in gaining an understanding of medieval trade links between Scotland and Europe, as well as of building and decorative phases for individual churches. Here, we consider the glass as an integral part of daily worship. Decorative patterns and colours of surviving fragments of glass, approximately dated, are considered in the wider and evolving context of medieval worship, and the prevailing religious Orders that were in Scotland at the time that many of these churches were founded. Two case-study sites are discussed in depth: Elgin Cathedral in Moray, which has yielded a significant number of glass shards through archaeological excavations; and Dunfermline Abbey in Fife, Scotland’s royal mausoleum. This inter-disciplinary study is the first to consider Scottish stained glass in terms of both its physical and chemical properties, as well as its wider religious meaning. This methodology will form the basis of future research to—for the first time—catalogue, scientifically analyse and liturgically contextualise all identifiable assemblages of Scottish medieval church glass.

Trade Flows and Fiscal Multipliers

Abstract We present novel insights on the role of international trade following unanticipated fiscal changes in a flexible exchange rate environment. We show analytically that fiscal multipliers can be larger in economies more open to trade, even when fiscal expansions imply trade deficits. Three factors determine how trade linkages matter: the relative import share of public and private goods, the financing of government debt, and the currency invoicing of exports. A Bayesian prior-predictive analysis shows that a quantitative model bears the same predictions. Conditioning on Canadian and U.S. data, we find support for larger multipliers relative to a counterfactually closed economy.

Mapping the upstream journey of China's indium: A trade-linked substance flow analysis

As a metal raw material for developing emerging industries, many countries have increased the competition and storage of indium. As the country with the largest reserves and supply of indium resources, China's indium supply affects the development of global emerging industries. The current study of indium upstream of the chain is not comprehensive enough, ignoring some objects and the interaction between China and the rest of the world (RoW) in trade. This study establishes a trade-linked substance flow analysis (SFA) framework to explore the sources, pathways, and destinations of China's indium in the upstream flow of the industrial chain. The results indicate that from 2000 to 2019, in addition to the 21,335 tons mined domestically, 3603 tons of indium were brought to China through concentrates import. Faced with the input of so many resources, nearly 20,000 tons of indium flowed into the landfill, and 2526 tons of refined indium flowed into the stock because of the low recovery rate and insufficient downstream consumption. The accumulation of refined indium, disruption of indium refineries and manufacturers, and the dependence of foreign markets on China's low-priced refined indium have resulted in half of the refined indium produced being exported to developed countries. The production bottleneck of high-purity indium makes manufacturers import high-purity indium from these developed countries at high prices. The trade of indium metal causes the loss of resources and capital in China. This study implies that strengthening cooperation between indium refineries and manufacturers, breaking technical barriers, and increasing recovery rates can promote the sustainable development of indium resources in China and the RoW from the perspective of trade links.

Wheat trade tends to happen between countries with contrasting extreme weather stress and synchronous yield variation

Extreme weather poses a major challenge to global food security by causing sharp drops in crop yield and supply. International crop trade can potentially alleviate such challenge by reallocating crop commodities. However, the influence of extreme weather stress and synchronous crop yield anomalies on trade linkages among countries remains unexplored. Here we use the international wheat trade network, develop two network-based covariates (i.e., difference in extreme weather stress and short-term synchrony of yield fluctuations between countries), and test specialized statistical and machine-learning methods. We find that countries with larger differences in extreme weather stress and synchronous yield variations tend to be trade partners and with higher trade volumes, even after controlling for factors conventionally implemented in international trade models (e.g., production level and trade agreement). These findings highlight the need to improve the current international trade network by considering the patterns of extreme weather stress and yield synchrony among countries.

Multinationals, global value chains, and the welfare impacts of economic sanctions

We quantify the welfare impacts of the recent economic sanctions against Russia using a multi-country multi-sector general equilibrium model with trade, multinational production (MP), and input–output linkages. We calibrate our model to the world with 44 economies and 34 sectors prior to the Russia–Ukraine war in 2022. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that the economic sanctions that cut trade and MP linkages between Russia and all other economies except China would decrease the real income in Russia by 11.98%. Moreover, if only trade linkages are cut, the real income in Russia would decrease by 9.55%. • An important aspect of economic sanctions is restricting multinational activities • Restrictions on multinationals are important in quantifying the effects of sanctions • Recent sanctions against Russia would decrease the real income in Russia by about 12%

Assessing the macroeconomic effects of China–Eastern African BRI transport infrastructure on Eastern African countries

AbstractThe Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) intends to enhance China's international integration, strikingly by enhancing infrastructure and bolstering trade and investment links among the economies involved. Poor transport infrastructure and border restrictions are significant deterrents to trade expansion, economic growth, and bilateral trade. Using panel structural gravity model estimations, this study investigates the impact of Transportation infrastructure inheritances on bilateral trade across the Belt and Road member countries, particularly in Eastern Africa. The study considers the potential effect of the BRI roads, railways, and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) infrastructure network on the bilateral trade and economies of the Eastern African countries. The empirical analysis offers robust evidence that transport infrastructure promotes trade. The study found that transport infrastructure has a significant and positive effect on trade. These results imply that transport infrastructure exerts a strong effect on trade and growth in Eastern Africa. Policies for increasing access and affordability of transport infrastructure are highly recommended to promote trade and economic growth in the Eastern Africa sub‐region.