Rice Trade Research Articles

Mapping the Trade Direction of Indian Rice with Markov Chain Analysis

Agriculture is a cornerstone of India’s economy, with rice being a critical crop that ranks second globally, feeding over half of the world’s population and serving as a staple in Southeast Asia. This study explores the direction of India’s rice trade using Markov Chain Analysis, following an examination of the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in rice exports to various global regions. Results reveal a 2.26 per cent CAGR in rice production, while export values surged by 16.8 per cent annually. Specifically, the CAGR for rice exports to Iraq and Iran reached 58.6 per cent and 46.47 per cent, respectively. In quantity, India’s rice exports grew by 10.82 per cent, with Iraq and Iran at 44 per cent and 34 per cent. The Transitional Probability Matrix for 2001-2022 indicates strong regional retention, with Africa maintaining 78 per cent of trade value and Asia 93.7 per cent, and similar trends in quantity, where Asia retained 92.6 per cent and Africa 89.1 per cent. These findings highlight India’s potential to diversify rice exports and strengthen its global competitive edge, urging a focus on enhancing processing, transportation, and quality standards for wider market appeal.

New Dynamics in the World Rice Market

In the last four decades of the 20th century, the world rice market was highly unstable, with price volatility greater than that on world wheat and maize markets. In the 21st century, however, new dynamics (a thicker world rice market, more irrigation, milder export restrictions) have contributed to a reduction in price volatility that is now lower than that on world wheat and maize markets. In addition, the El Niño events that are responsible for many shocks to the world rice market are largely predictable several months in advance. The reduced volatility on the world rice market and the predictability of El Niño events make it easier to use international trade as an instrument for food security. The recent experience with rice trade liberalization by Asian rice importers has been largely positive, helping to improve food security and the affordability of healthy diets, with little impact on domestic price volatility.

Modifying the virtual water trade of rice for global sustainability of freshwater resources

Modifying the virtual water trade of rice for global sustainability of freshwater resources

What explains rice exports? An analysis of major rice‐exporting countries

AbstractThis study examines the drivers of rice trade. The analysis uses the standard comparative advantage model, the Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek (HOV) framework, supplemented with a gravity‐type equation. Using the Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation for data from 2002 to 2020, the analysis broadly confirms HOV model predictions. Results indicate that arable land, along with GDP, distance, precipitation and crop season temperature, significantly influences rice trade dynamics. The results showed that the precipitation play a key role in influencing the rice trade rather than the blue water availability. However, agricultural water stress discouraged exports and encouraged imports.

Beyond yield: Unveiling farmer perceptions and needs regarding weed management in Bangladesh.

More than 3.5 billion people depend on rice for more than 20% of their daily calories. Globally, Bangladesh is the third largest rice producer. With 171 million people, Bangladesh is also among the top consumers. Local rice production not only affects the country's food security but also influences the global rice trade. A large yield gap has been reported due to weeds. Traditional hand weeding is very costly because of labor shortages resulting from industrialization. Limited data showed a higher yield and profits when using herbicides. However, quantitative data on various aspects of weed management and associated issues representing the country's variable rice ecosystem, which is characterized by 30 agroecological zones, are lacking. We collected data on weed management practices from 865 farmers and 69 agrochemical shops covering all 30 agro-ecological zones (AEZs) through a structured survey. We observed a significant regional variation among various parameters. Approximately 82% of farmers use herbicides, and few rely solely on either manual weeding or herbicides. Pre-emergence herbicides are the predominant. Application procedures are almost the same across the country. Although 40% of farmers had secondary and higher-level education, most depend upon local sellers' suggestions rather than reading the product label regarding the dose. Few farmers consider herbicides hazardous, and respondents rarely perceive any environmental impact. Pyrazosulfuron ethyl (35%) and acetochlor-containing bensulfuron methyl (27%) are the most-used chemical species. Approximately 45% of farmers observed that herbicides suppress early seedling growth. Additional fertilizer is required to compensate for this. Multiple weed species that are difficult to control through presently used herbicides were noted in all AEZs. Around 64% of farmers observed that herbicide application contributes to higher yields as a function of timely weeding. Cost comparisons showed that high labor prices will make rice cropping unprofitable in most parts of the country if herbicides are eliminated. Clear adverse effects of pre-emergence herbicides on early crop growth implied the potential benefits of broad-spectrum herbicide-tolerant genetically engineered (GE) rice to sustain the country's food security. Additionally, such GE rice could incentivize the adoption of alternate wet and dry irrigation methods, leading to water and cost savings.

Bilateral Trade Welfare Impacts of India’s Export Ban of Non-Basmati Rice Using the Global Partial Equilibrium Simulation Model (GSIM)

India, the world’s leading rice exporter, banned the export of non-Basmati white rice, accounting for 25% of its total exports (or 10% of the global rice trade). The ban aims to ensure availability to domestic Indian consumers and reduce domestic market prices, impacting global rice market accessibility, consumers, and producers across twelve regions. The study utilized the global simulation model (GSIM) to analyze the effects of trade restrictions on industries. The model uses national product differentiation to assess trade policy changes at global, regional, or national scales. It examined importer and exporter effects on trade values, tariff revenues, exporter surplus, and importer surplus. It found that India’s Voluntary Export Restraint (VER) ban on non-Basmati rice resulted in a higher local price and a negative global net welfare impact of USD 1.7 billion. The losses decreased to USD 1.4 billion when importing countries responded by reducing rice import tariffs by 25% and USD 1.1 billion when importing countries reduced tariffs by 75%. Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, North Africa, and the Gulf Cooperation Council regions were most affected. The study also found minimal impact on consumer surplus in India due to inelastic rice demand.

Analysis of Rice Trade and Food Security in Southeast Asian Countries

The rice trade serves to maintain sufficient rice stocks to meet domestic country demands. The world’s main rice exporters and importers are located in the Southeast Asia region, so the volume change of traded rice can affect the flow of trade. Given the strategic importance of rice, numerous nations have stepped in to control the domestic rice market, to ensure political stability as well as food security. This article aims to examine how the rice trade has evolved in Southeast Asia with respect to food security. The study aims are addressed by the application of the descriptive analysis method. The findings indicate that from 110.5 million tones in 2010–2011 to 128.3 million tones in 2021–2022, Southeast Asian countries accounted for 1.22% of global rice imports, >22% of the world’s total rice consumption. In the meantime, the annual growth rate of rice exports was 3.3%. Over the past 10 years, ASEAN’s net rice exports have made up 53.3% of the world’s total and are expected to reach about 54.8%. Southeast Asian countries intervene in the rice market through international trade policies, both in the form of export bans and domestic rice price stabilization policies, to maintain rice stocks to strengthen the level of food security. Southeast Asia’s economic integration through the ASEAN Economy Community is an important moment to become the basis for achieving food security at the regional levels while at the same time making the rice market more open among Southeast Asian countries. Keywords: rice, trade, policy, Southeast Asia

African food system and biodiversity mainly affected by urbanization via dietary shifts

The rapid urbanization in Africa profoundly affects local food and ecological systems. According to earlier research, urbanization may cause food production and biodiversity losses as agricultural or natural lands are absorbed by expanding cities. Land-use displacement effects may buffer agricultural production losses or may lead to additional biodiversity losses but are often overlooked. Moreover, impacts of dietary changes associated with urbanization are rarely considered. To address this, we combined spatially explicit projections of African urban area expansion with observed rice consumption shifts to inform a partial equilibrium model (the Global Biosphere Management Model). We demonstrate the importance of displacement effects to identify potential food production or biodiversity issues until 2050 and argue for their integration in land-use planning and policymaking across spatial scales. We identify that because of agricultural displacement, the impact of urban area expansion on food production losses is probably limited (<1%)—at the cost of additional losses of natural lands by 2050 (up to 2 Mt). We also show that considering dietary shifts associated with urbanization increases rice consumption, production (+8.0%), trade (up to +2 Mt of required import) and agricultural methane emissions (up to +12 MtCO2-equivalent yr–1), thereby underscoring the need for a systems approach in future sustainability studies.

Trade-driven model of “Hydropower for Rice” cooperation in the Lancang-Mekong River basin

There have been intense conflicts over water resources between upstream and downstream countries in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB) over the past years, primarily due to the trade-off relationship between hydropower and rice production. Great potential for transboundary cooperation has been shown, such as China’s emergency water release in 2016 to alleviate downstream severe drought. However, there is still a lack of systematic cooperation pattern. To address this issue, the study proposes a trade-driven model of “Hydropower for Rice” cooperation, and then derives three key political factors including price weight, export rate, and terminal water level of reservoirs. Our results show that (1) The hydropower and rice production under the trade-driven model can approximate the centralized model, and the “Hydropower for Rice” cooperation is feasible. (2) For downstream countries, rice is the main product, and the rice production and economic benefit can be increased with a higher price weight or export rate. Compared to Thailand and Cambodia, Vietnam needs to engage in deeper trade with China. (3) For upstream China, hydropower is the main product, and the economic benefit of riparian countries can be increased with higher export rates. The discharge in the dry season is increased, which is driven by the trade of rice. Additionally, China’s initiative to reduce the terminal water level of reservoir Nuozhadu has the potential to further increase rice production in downstream countries. This study indicates that the transboundary cooperation in LMRB requires joint efforts of upstream and downstream countries.

Trends of Rainfall and Rice Yield of Cities in Punjab

India, and specifically Punjab, has been one of the major players in the rice trade, and its exports can be considered a necessity. However, at the same time, climate change has played an important role in changing the production of agricultural crops. We know that climate change has caused an impact on temperature of different regions, precipitation, and monsoon patterns. This research paper aims to find the trend relation between precipitation and rice yield of the five most important cities of Punjab. Additionally, this data was collected till the year 2011, and compared the trend over the years using the Mann-Kendall Test.

KONSEP TIJAROH SEBAGAI SOLUSI FENOMENA PERDAGANGAN DENGAN SISTEM TEBAS TERHADAP KOMODITAS PADI DAN MANGGA DI KABUPATEN NGAWI

The total area of Ngawi Regency is 1,298.58 km2, of which 506.6 km2 or about 40% is made up of rice fields. According to the data, farmers employ the bulk of Ngawi people. Mango fruit is the second most abundant good after rice, as most Ngawi people grow mango trees in front or behind their homes. When harvest season rolls around, farmers have trouble finding buyers who will purchase their crops in an honest and profitable manner. This is because buyers, also known as penebas, use the Tebas system to complete the purchase process for these two commodities, which means that the system cannot fulfill the wishes of both parties involved in the transaction if It also goes by the name "profit" in economics.According to the Tijaroh principle, the goal of a trading contract is to find and make money when all requirements have been met. Ijarah, Salam, Murabahah, Istishna', Musyarakah, Muzara'ah, and Mukharabah, musaqah are among the contracts that fall under this category. Or, according to a different editorial, any kind of arrangement involving for-profit transactions is referred to as a tijarah contract (compensational contract).The goal of this research is to stop Maysir and Gharar practices in the trade of rice and mango commodities in the Ngawi district and to make rice trading activities ethical and advantageous for all stakeholders.Issue. The present study employed the Inductive analysis method in a Normative approach to examine the data. This entails evaluating the research object's problems beforehand and utilizing the Tijaroh concept to analyze the data. Keywords: Tebas, Trade, and Tijaroh

The Impact of Participating in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement and Potential Export Markets for Vietnamese Rice: An Application of Augmented Gravity Model

In this study, we investigate the potential effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement on Vietnam’s rice exports from 2000 to 2016. For this analysis, we employ the panel data augmented gravity model with some modifications. The estimated results suggest a positive relationship between Vietnam’s per capita export and the capita real gross domestic product (GDP) of the importer, Vietnam’s rice production, export price, and ASEAN dummy. We confirm that there is a negative relationship between Vietnam’s per capita rice export value and import country agricultural land and import tariffs. Additionally, this paper forecasts Vietnam’s rice export value per capita at each market in RCEP partners by using the autoregressive model. Our forecast results show that among RCEP members, Vietnam has potential markets if import tariff reductions are lowered in Singapore, Brunei, Korea, Japan, and Malaysia. To reap the benefits of rice exports’ potential, Vietnam must move from low-grade and cheap rice to high-quality rice production instead of expanding rice production and exports with the following implications: changing its present rice trading partners to potential markets and adopting market-oriented policies to meet the international demand and to increase the export elasticity of rice.

The effect of dataset construction and data pre-processing on the eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm applied to head rice yield prediction in Australia

Dataset quality heavily impacts the predictive performance of data-driven modelling. This issue can be exacerbated in the prediction of agricultural production due to the complex interactions between the climate, the environment and the way the plant is affected by these conditions during the season. This study aims to create an empirical model to predict Head Rice Yield (HRY), the primary quality metric for rice growers and millers globally. Model development focused on an industry-level dataset made available by SunRice, Australia's most prominent rice trading company. Using the SunRice data, two dataset construction methods were implemented to evaluate the effect of dataset construction and data pre-processing on model accuracy. The first dataset construction method was based on aggregating meteorological conditions using estimates of phenology, while the second method used aggregations based on defined lengths of time. Deviations of each construction method were generated to explore the impact of varying levels in aggregation stages and stage lengths. Each constructed dataset underwent feature selection prior to model training using the XGBoost algorithm with Leave-One-Year-Out Cross-Validation. The time-based dataset construction method proved to be the most accurate dataset construction method, producing the highest mean model accuracy scores across all pre-processing and model training configurations. The single most accurate model came from the two-week aggregation dataset, which yielded a 125% increase in Lin’s Concordance Correlation Coefficient compared to the worst-performing model produced in this study. Developing a highly accurate model that allows for crop stage knowledge discovery is critical for uncovering actionable insights to improve the management of future rice crops for HRY. The knowledge discovered in this study provides actionable insights to improve the management of future rice crops for HRY. The developed model demonstrates the potential for SunRice to predict HRY at the receival point to optimise post-harvest handling and milling. When matched to region-specific data, the dataset construction methods explored can be replicated in other rice-growing regions globally.

Unpacking the Global Rice Trade Network: Centrality, Structural Holes, and the Nexus of Food Insecurity.

The challenging international landscape and exacerbated extreme weather conditions contribute to the instability of global grain trade, complicating its impact on food security. This complexity is particularly pronounced for varieties like rice, which are heavily affected by policy-driven trade restrictions. There is insufficient research on how a country's rice trade characteristics affect food security. A network analysis approach is adopted to intricately dissect the structural characteristics of rice trade. To explore causality with food insecurity, this paper chooses structural holes and centrality as representatives of trade network characteristics and regresses them on the food insecurity indicator. With cross-national data spanning over 30 years, the network analysis provides a clear portrayal of the dynamic changes in international rice trade. The overall resilience of the trade network has increased, but specific countries' vulnerability has also risen. Unlike the changing trends in features observed in grain and food trade networks, there is a notable intensification in the imbalance of power distribution in the rice trade network compared to over 30 years ago. The panel data regression results show that constraint, indicating the scarcity of structural holes or connections to stronger trading partners, significantly and positively influences a country's level of food insecurity. Based on these findings, the policy proposal for importing countries emphasizes creating strategic trade connections. By choosing appropriate trade partners that reduce constraint, food security can be enhanced, even without improvements in other conditions.

Exposure to the global rice trade: A comparative study of arsenic and cadmium in rice consumed in Haiti

Rice makes up nearly a quarter of dietary intake in Haiti. Rice consumption began to rapidly increase during the mid-1980s and 1990s, corresponding to policy interventions that promoted the importation and consumption of U.S.-grown rice, soon making Haiti the second largest export market for Ameri­can rice worldwide. Haitian growers also cultivate and sell local rice. Rice consumption can be a significant source of exposure to toxic metals since rice plants accumulate arsenic and cadmium from their envi­ronment. In August 2020, we collected samples of local (n=48) and imported (n=50) rice from vendor sites in the Lower Artibonite Valley region of Haiti. Cadmium and arsenic concentrat­ions were meas­ured via inductively coupled plasma mass spec­trom­e­try. Levels were compared between local versus imported commercial rice samples. For arsenic, we conducted a simulation study to esti­mate the intake of arsenic from varied quantities of local or imported rice samples on a per-body weight basis for adults and young children. We found that median concentrations were nearly two-fold higher for both arsenic and cadmium in im­ported rice (0.15 µg/g and 0.007 µg/g) compared to local rice (0.07 µg/g and 0.003 µg/g). Our simu­lation of arsenic intake through rice consumption suggests that adults of varying weights consuming 3 or more cups of imported rice per day would exceed a daily minimum risk level for toxicity. The simulation also suggests that most children con­suming 1 or more cups of local or imported rice per day would exceed a health-based arsenic intake limit. In Haiti, imported rice had an average level of arsenic twice that of locally grown product, with some imported sources exceeding the international limits recommended to protect human health. Cur­rent consumption patterns of imported rice over the long-term for children and adults may adversely impact health in Haiti. Strengthening community food systems can promote better health.

Updating the analysis of rice import liberalization in Japan: a dynamic-stochastic CGE modelling approach

ABSTRACT Food self-sufficiency is a central pillar of agricultural policy in Japan, and a high import tariff strictly protects the domestic rice market. Most existing studies investigate the deterministic impacts of the rice trade liberalization policy in the country; one, in particular, developed a static-stochastic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate how risky the policy would be in securing the food supply, which fails to account for the long-term effects of a free trade policy. We analyse the impacts of rice trade liberalization in Japan, constructing the first global-scale dynamic-stochastic CGE model. We update the policy analysis of the previous study by extending the static-stochastic model to a dynamic-stochastic framework that allows us to analyse the long-term impacts of the policy in a probabilistic manner. The primary findings are that household welfare converges at a higher level in the long term than in the short term. Second, the shocks to household welfare from abroad persistently become more significant over time. Finally, we have determined that the optimal level for government strategic rice reserves is 300 thousand tons. Therefore, it is apparent that the current stock level of 1000 thousand tons is not cost-effective.

Global Trends in Rice Production, Consumption and Trade

Global Trends in Rice Production, Consumption and Trade

북한 쌀 시장의 지역 간 통합과 거래 구조

Since the 2000s, North Korea has been shifting away from a socialist planned economy towards a mixed plan-market system, marking a significant transformation in its economic approach. This research concentrates on scrutinizing the North Korean consumer goods market, with a specific focus on rice. The study encompasses nine cities (five/four in Western/Eastern region), covering the period from January 2012 to December 2021. The paper adopts a theoretical framework rooted in the efficient market hypothesis, using statistical analysis to examine absolute and relative prices. Notably, it identifies nearly perfect price parity in two pairs of cities (F-H, West and D-G, East). The relative price analysis shows that all pairs are in relative equilibrium, indicating that market integration has been established across regions. These findings offer statistical evidence of the coexistence of planned and market-based elements in the North Korean rice distribution system. In addition to price analysis, this paper delves into the North Korean rice trading network and associated transaction costs in selected regions. Consequently, this study holds substantial academic distinction, offering valuable insights into North Korea's essential goods distribution system.

Understanding Global Rice Trade Flows: Network Evolution and Implications.

Rice holds a significant position as one of the world's most important food crops, and international trade plays a crucial role in regulating rice supply and demand. Analyzing the structural evolution of the global rice trade from a network perspective is paramount for understanding the global rice-trade supply chain and ensuring global food security. This study utilizes international rice-trade data from 2000 to 2021 and employs various network analysis methods to depict the spatial and temporal patterns of the global rice trade, examines the network topologies of the global rice trade, and reveals the impacts of its evolution on food security. The research findings are as follows: (1) Global rice-trade scale has increased over time, indicating a relatively stable development with the gradual formation of complex rice-trade networks. Since 2000, the global rice-trade networks have shown increasing density characterized by Asia as the primary export source and Africa as an important import market. (2) Network analysis indicators demonstrate a growing trend in the size and density of the global rice-trade networks, along with increasingly optimized network structures and improved network connectivity efficiency. Core positions in the networks are occupied by Thailand, Vietnam, India, China, Pakistan, and the United States, while import partners in European and American countries, such as Germany, France, UK, Canada, The Netherlands, and Belgium, show greater diversification. Asia, Europe, and North America form agglomeration regions for rice-exporting countries. Additionally, importing and exporting countries in the global rice-trade networks exhibit certain geographical concentrations. (3) The network backbones of the global rice trade are continuously evolving and being refined, characterized by dominant large rice-exporting countries in Asia and prominent developed countries in Europe and North America. The backbone structures revolve around India as the core, Thailand and Pakistan as the second cores, and critical nodes represented by Italy, the United States, China, and Vietnam. Regional backbone networks have also formed in Asia and Europe. Based on these findings, this paper clarifies the complex network characteristics of the global rice trade and offers insights to promote international rice-trade cooperation and safeguard global food security.

The trade-environment nexus in global cereal trade: Combing social network and spatial panel econometrics analysis

The global trade networks of maize, wheat, and rice and their carbon emission networks are established from 2000 to 2020. Social network analysis (SNA) is used to quantify countries' roles in the networks. Spatial econometric model is used to analyze the impacts of socio-economic indicators and the countries' roles according to Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model. The results show that the global cereal trade volume and their carbon emissions continues to rise. The overall cereal trade networks tend to be complicated and tight. Global cereal trade networks are highly heterogeneous networks with numerous peripheral economies and a few hub countries. However, with the rise of developing economies in cereal trade, the dominance of hubs decrease. The panel regression shows that the network characteristics of three cereal trade have different effects on carbon emissions as follows: (1) In rice trade network closeness centrality increases carbon emissions, meaning countries or regions with more trade connectivity emit more carbon emission. However, in wheat trade network it has reducing effects in whole and low-income countries, while increasing effects in high-income countries. (2) Among the three cereal trade, betweenness centrality reflecting mediating role has significantly negative effects on carbon emissions only in rice trade network. (3) Regarding the number of importing partners, it has positive effects on carbon emissions for wheat and maize trade, while negative for rice trade. The number of exporting partners has positive effects in all the three cereal trade. This study confirms carbon mitigation potentials from trade relationship. This study also discusses some implications for agriculture and policymakers in different countries or regions involved in the global cereal trade.