Implications For Trade Research Articles

Transforming East Asia: Regional Integration in a Trade War Era

AbstractThis paper evaluates the trade and welfare implications of further East Asian trade integration, through the signing of the China-Japan-Korea FTA, and continued trade tensions between the US and China. Our analysis uses a structural gravity approach to explore the effects of these cooperative and non-cooperative trade policies. Our key findings are: (i) for China, the FTA can compensate for continued trade tensions (ii) in terms of the FTA and for the members involved, reductions in tariffs are expected to lead to larger welfare gains compared to those from lower NTBs (iii) for the members involved, a deeper agreement will be more welfare enhancing. Overall, East Asian integration appears to be a more appealing prospect in light of tensions with the US.

Environmental Concern Leads to Trade Skepticism on the Political Left and Right

Abstract The environmental implications of international trade appear to be associated with public backlash against trade liberalization and efforts at greening international trade. Because public support is essential to environmental and trade policy-making alike, we examine the trade–environment nexus from a public opinion perspective. We investigate whether negative attitudes toward trade are in fact fueled by concern over its environmental consequences. We argue that environmental concern affects how citizens evaluate the costs and benefits of trade, and that such evaluation is moderated by political ideology. The empirical analysis relies on a large representative survey and a population-based survey experiment in Switzerland, a small open economy. We show that environmental concern leads to decreasing appreciation of and support for international trade, with different manifestations of trade skepticism on the political left and right. This suggests (i) that policy-makers should focus more on greening global supply chains, and thus trade, if they wish to sustain public support for liberal international trade policy; and (ii) that the public follows informational cues on the environmental impacts of trade.

Assessing the Economic Implications of Free Trade on Environmental Quality: Empirical Evidence from Africa

Assessing the Economic Implications of Free Trade on Environmental Quality: Empirical Evidence from Africa

중국의 국경 간 전자상거래 현황과 남북한 전자상거래 협력방안에 관한 연구

Purpose - This study considers a realistic plan for introducing e-commerce between South and North Korea in terms of designing a future-oriented inter-Korean trade system, amid the rapid growth of cross-border e-commerce worldwide.
 Design/Methodology/Approach - For this purpose, based on the current status of cross-border e-commerce, we examine the progress and revitalization strategies of cross-border e-commerce in China, and provide implications for inter-Korean trade through the analysis of North Korea's e-commerce introduction and multilateral cooperation cases.
 Findings - As a step-by-step direction for inter-Korean e-commerce cooperation in consideration of internal and external conditions, we suggest a plan to first establish a promotion system between South and North Korea and China, and propose a plan to open and operate dedicated logistics facilities in the North-China border area. Second, it is necessary to improve the system and simplify the procedure to prepare a one-stop system for inter-Korean e-commerce. Third, starting with a B2B method, processes gradually expand to a B2C or C2C method. Fourth, we propose a method of selecting and operating a pilot item group and company, and then examining whether the target items and participants will be gradually expanded.
 Research Implications - In the meantime, study on the introduction of e-commerce between South and North Korea has been cut off for a long time, and in this situation, this study can be meaningful in that it presents a step-by-step approach to market creation while minimizing risks for the proponents.

Pacific Alliance: Trade implications on member countries and other regional trade agreements

AbstractThe Pacific Alliance, born as an alternative to “postliberal regionalism,” aimed at reinforcing the liberalization and openness strategies as well as the North–South agreements previously subscribed by its members. It sought to enhance intraregional trade, promote value chains, and reach out to the Asia‐Pacific region. Ten years after the creation of the Pacific Alliance, it is relevant to assess its effect on trade flows among its members and with other regional trade agreements like the Andean Community and the Southern Common Market. We use an augmented gravity model and the panel data methodology to provide evidence that the Pacific Alliance has not affected trade flows significantly among its members or with other South American regional trade agreements.

Implications of intercontinental renewable electricity trade for energy systems and emissions

A rapid global energy transition, including the ramping up of electricity generation from renewables, is needed to limit global warming to 2 °C or 1.5 °C. However, renewable resource endowments vary widely between regions, and renewable electricity is currently mainly used locally. Here we use a global integrated assessment model to explore the implications of renewable electricity trade via a set of planned direct-current-type ultra-high-voltage (UHVDC) transmission lines for global energy transition and climate change. We find that renewable electricity trade across large world regions via the underlying UHVDC interconnection can boost renewable electricity production and reduce 2020–2100 cumulative CO2 emissions from the power sector up to 9.8%. Financial investments in the UHVDC lines are offset in the long term by reduced investments in other electricity-generation options, including nuclear and storage. Finally, we find that renewable electricity trade can substantially reduce air pollutant emissions in importing regions. Projects are under way for direct-current ultra-high-voltage transmission lines that would allow trading of renewable electricity across world regions. Guo et al. use integrated assessment models to explore different scenarios for the operation of these projects and assess their potential for decarbonization.

Comparative analysis of carbon border tax adjustment and domestic carbon tax under general equilibrium model: Focusing on the Indonesian economy

The carbon border tax adjustment policy is applied to mitigate the carbon leakage issue resulting from unequal carbon tax implementation and encourage associated nations' participation in domestic carbon reduction efforts. The high share of primary energy exports and the carbon emissions generates mean that a global carbon control policy will significantly affect participating countries. This study examines the effects of carbon border tax adjustment policy on developing countries, and evaluates the substitutability between domestic and inter-regional carbon control policies as a development of existing research investigation. The Global Trade Analysis Project energy-environmental version (GTAP-E) model and CGEBox, a global computable general equilibrium user interface tool, were utilized to address the impact of domestic and inter-region carbon policy on the economies, trade levels, and environmental conditions of the participating countries. By reviewing the evidence of the impact analysis, this study investigates the influence of carbon border tariff adjustment implementation on inducing domestic carbon tax participation in non-regulated countries, with Indonesia as a case study. In the scenario we develop, Indonesia imposes various carbon taxes and is subject to border carbon tariff by its trade partners. The analysis reveals that border tax adjustment brings negative trade and economic implications to the affected countries, with a small reduction in global carbon emission. The findings show that Indonesia's low domestic carbon tax levy helps mitigate the adverse economic and trade distortion effects of the carbon border tax adjustment imposed by its trading partners. Additionally, we estimate the level of carbon border tariffs levied on each country that achieves the same employment effects as a carbon tax in the analyzed country. The simulation results indicate that the impact of the carbon border tax imposed is not significant enough to induce carbon control policy implementation in affected countries. Hence, higher carbon border tariffs should be proposed to encourage non-regulated countries to adopt stringent carbon policy measures to maximize global carbon emission abatement.

US―China Green Trade Conflict and Implications for Low-Carbon Energy Transition: The Solar Energy Trade Dispute

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyze the causes of Sino-U.S. solar PV trade disputes by adopting research, comparative research, and case study. It also proposes relevant resolutions over Sino-U.S. solar trade conflicts and the implications for low-carbon energy transition.
 Design/Methodology/Approach - Based on green trade protectionism and comparative advantage theory, this paper combines Chinese solar products export flows to the U.S. with cases of solar trade disputes from 2011 to 2022 to analyze the causes of Sino-U.S. solar trade conflict. Thus, from the perspective of international trade law, WTO reform on the relevant renewable energy agreements, international carbon border tax regime, and a bilateral clean agreement or EGA negotiations, it purposes the resolution of Sino-U.S. solar trade conflict.
 Findings - This paper studies factors leading to the Sino-U.S. solar trade conflict, which is mainly a bilateral trade imbalance, the game of interest groups within the US, non-standard support policies for Chinese solar energy industry, and geopolitical and national green energy security. There is no doubt that trade disputes had had a larger negative impact on Sino-U.S. solar trade flows from 2011 to 2019. Meanwhile, the solar PV trade policies of the US affected the global supply chain of solar PV products, thus hindering the progress of low-carbon energy transition.
 Research Implications - In the management of this paper, this study has important practical significance for the healthy and sustainable development of solar PV trade and achieving low-carbon energy transition for both countries. It can also provide references to solar energy trade disputes among other countries in a broader sense, and propose relevant recommendations for South Korea’s solar energy.

Renewable-energy consumption and international trade

This paper investigates the implications for international trade of a country’s dependence on renewable energy consumption in total energy use. We use data for 152 countries over the period 1990–2014. We estimate a gravity equation of bilateral trade to assess the role of renewable energy consumption on international trade. We find, inter alia, that a 1% increase in the use of renewable energy as a proportion of total energy leads to, on an average, a 1.026% decrease in exports, and a 0.39% increase in imports, suggesting that renewable energy use makes trade less competitive. This outcome is due in part to cost implications of using renewable energy sources. However, we also find some heterogeneity in this respect. Whereas Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries export more with increased use of renewable energy, for non-OECD countries renewable energy use reduces exports.

The Relationship between Animal Welfare and Farm Profitability in Cage and Free-Range Housing Systems for Laying Hens in China.

Simple SummaryWith public concern increasing in China for animal welfare in livestock production, the welfare and economic outcomes of different farming systems for laying hens needs to be examined. Animal welfare outcomes and initiatives are linked to the economic efficiency of the farm, which for the producer may require a balance or trade-off between these issues. This study investigated animal welfare, egg production and economic parameters in cage and free-range farms in China. Our results identified potential welfare issues that can be addressed on both farm types, and potential points of income that can be improved by enhancing hen welfare. Therefore, our results offer some directions for welfare and economic improvements on cage and free-range egg farms in China.Several countries and regions have regulations in place to provide standards for the welfare of production animals, which have implications for breeding, management and trade. In the chicken egg production industry, the welfare impacts of this are not well understood. In the past decades, free-range systems were widely used for local chicken breeds in poultry industry in China, but their use has gradually declined due to the lower competitiveness compared to commercial cage systems. However, the practices of free-range systems for hens raising have gradually increased again over the past decade, as consumer individualized demand for higher food quality and animal welfare has increased. We recruited 14 free-range farms and 45 cage farms from Beijing, Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, Yunnan, Gansu and Jiangsu provinces in China, for an evaluation of hen welfare, production and economic outcomes from farm operations. This study provides data for the welfare outcomes of laying hens in China and preliminarily explored the relationship between welfare level and economic income within farming system types. The researchers visited the farms and used Welfare Quality measures to investigate the welfare, and farm self-reported profits. Nonparametric Mann–Whitney U tests were used to compare the welfare scores between cage and free-range rearing farms. Correlation and regression are used for the analysis of the animal welfare scores, economic data, and production metrics. The general income from free-range farms was linearly correlated with red mite score and stocking density (p < 0.001 and p < 0.05, respectively). The results showed less centimeters of feeder and drinker space per animal in the free-range system than in cage systems (p < 0.05 and p < 0.01, respectively). Welfare scores for both the stocking density and beak condition were significantly better in the free-range systems than the cage systems (p < 0.001), as were qualitative behavior assessment scores (p < 0.05). The total egg production and peak egg production in cage farms were much higher than in free-range farms (p < 0.001), and egg loss rate was significantly lower (p < 0.001). While the production efficiency of free-range farms was lower than that of cage farms, general income per 10,000 hens was actually higher. Our results provide some evidence that some welfare indicators and general income (per 10,000 hens) in free-range farms in China were better than those of cage farms. The results indicate that better parasite control and lower stocking densities may result in improved hen welfare on free-range farms and potentially improve profitability. The level of welfare and economic benefits of free-range farms vary widely, and there was potential room for improvement in feeding space, drinking water space and human–animal relationship.

A Study of the Influence of Cultural Distance on the Retention of Multinational Exhibitors

ABSTRACT Customer retention is an important basis for International Trade shows to obtain sustained competitive advantage, and the retention of multinational exhibitors is largely influenced by cultural heterogeneity. This study intends to explore the influence of cultural distance on the retention of multinational exhibitors based on Hofstede’s national culture model. It is based on an analysis of 4476 multinational exhibitors from 7 famous international trade shows in China through web crawler technology. The results reveal that total cultural distance has a significant positive effect on the retention of multinational exhibitors. However, different sub-dimensions under cultural distance may have different effects. In terms of sub-dimensions including power distance, individualism and uncertainty avoidance, the greater the cultural distance, the easier it is to retain customers. As for sub-dimensions of long term orientation, the estimated results display an opposite tendency. The findings contribute to the literature and have practical implications for international trade shows’ service and management.

Implications of Trade and Trade Adjustment on Forest Transition in Africa and Asia: Based on FMOLS and DOLS Approaches

Implications of Trade and Trade Adjustment on Forest Transition in Africa and Asia: Based on FMOLS and DOLS Approaches

COVID-19 Crisis, Wildlife Trafficking and Environmental Governance in Nigeria

Illegal wildlife trade and wildlife trafficking are global environmental risks which is underscored not just by its convergence with other serious crimes but by the cross-border and trans-boundary nature of the crime, and its implications in many global health problems. The COVID-19 crisis, currently estimated to have been contracted from bats by humans through an intermediate host such as a pangolin, has propelled the global health implications of wildlife trade onto the global stage, thereby questioning global and national environmental governance structures to combat illegal wildlife trade and trafficking. Through a literature-based desk review, this paper appraises international environmental regulation such as the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna (CITES); wildlife regulatory governance in Nigeria such as The Endangered Species (Control of International Trade and Traffic) Act and their implications in the current global pandemic. It finds that weak legal systems, lack of enforcement capacity, high corruption levels and insufficient coordination, knowledge, and capacity are among the critical drivers of this crisis. It recommends legal and policy prioritization and effective environmental governance with regards to combatting wildlife trafficking as a panacea for present and future pandemics.

Uncovering the Effect of Forest Certification on the Dynamic Evolution of the Global Log Trade Network: A Stochastic Actor-Oriented Model Approach

Clarifying the dynamic evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of the global log trade network (GLTN) can provide references for the trade decision-making of various countries. Based on the stochastic actor-oriented model, this paper analyzed the GLTN’s dynamic evolution from 2010 to 2019 and paid more attention to the effect of forest certification on the dynamic evolution of the GLTN. Results indicate that from 2010 to 2019, many changes have occurred in the network. The change rate in the 2010–2015 period is faster than that in the 2015–2019 period. Countries tend to form reciprocity, three-cycles, and transitive trade ties over time. A country with more certified forest area tends to form new log export ties with the other countries. The trade imbalance ratio (TII) has a significant negative mediating effect on the evolutionary relationships between the certified forest area and the log trade network dynamic. Net exporters of log tend to avoid establishing export ties with countries with more certified forest areas over time. Countries with similar cultural backgrounds are easier to establish log trade ties with, while countries with farther geographical distances tend to avoid establishing trade ties over time. A free trade agreement (FTA) has a significant positive impact on the formation of log trade ties among nations. Our findings shed new light on the dynamic evolution mechanism of the global log trade network and offer implications for future trade and forest conservation policy design.

Economic Implications of Trade in Wildlife: From Legality to Illegality

Illegal trade in wildlife has caused the decline of many species in Nigeria, Africa and the world. Illegal killing, smuggling and other forms of illicit trade in wildlife do not only hurt the economy and the ecosystem, but they also fuel organised crime as well as feed corruption and insecurity, undermining the sustainable development of the country. Wildlife in Nigeria is under pressure as most endangered species, are traded both domestically and internationally. Nigeria is not only a source of wildlife products but has also emerged as a major transit country for wildlife trafficking according to the current World wildlife Crime Report. Using a literature-based review, this paper critically examines the legality and illegality of wildlife trade in Nigeria in line with the provisions of extant laws and how this scenario has grossly hampered global efforts toward combating wildlife trafficking. It proffers amendment of the text of extant laws to reflect the intents and global aspirations to curb this scourge and preserve biodiversity for posterity. It further advocates global partnerships efforts to strengthen enforcement capacity to investigate and prosecute offenders.

Phylodynamic and phylogeographic reconstruction of beak and feather disease virus epidemiology and its implications for the international exotic bird trade.

Beak and feather disease virus (BFDV) infects domestic and wild psittacine species and is able to cause progressive beak, claw and feather malformation and necrosis. In addition to having an impact on the health and welfare of domesticated birds, BFDV represents a significant threat to wild endangered species. Understanding the epidemiology, dynamics, viral migration rate, interaction between wild and domestic animals and the effect of implemented control strategies is fundamental in controlling the spread of the disease. With this in mind, a phylodynamic and phylogeographic analysis has been performed on a database of more than 400 replication-associated protein (Rep) gene (ORF1) sequences downloaded from Genbank including some recently generated sequences from fifteen samples collected in Namibia. The results allowed us to reconstruct the variation of viral population size and demonstrated the effect of enforced international bans on these dynamics. A good correlation was found between viral migration rate and the intensity of animal trade between regions over time. A dominant flux of viral strains was observed from wild to domestic populations, highlighting the directionality of viral transmission and the risk associated with the capturing and trade of wild birds. Nevertheless, the flow of viruses from domestic to wild species was not negligible and should be considered as a threat to biodiversity. Therefore, considering the strong relationship demonstrated in this study between animal trade and BFDV viral fluxes more effort should be made to prevent contact opportunities between wild and domestic populations from different countries in order to control disease spread.

The Weaponization of Human Rights in US-China Trade Policy: Impacts and Risks

The hegemonic rivalry between the United States and China has generated tectonic geoeconomic shifts with massive implications for global trade. Global trade, inextricably linked with national prosperity, international politics and global governance, is increasingly driven less by economic realities and more by great power rivalry. Demonstrating both the dynamic nature of US-China trade tensions and the impact of and international political relations, are allegations of Chinese human rights violations being injected by the US as part of trade policy. Invoking human rights in the trade context has already caused multi-dimensional complexities impacting businesses; supply-chains; coalition building; and spurring counter measures. Linking human rights to trade policies might also lead to increasing economic nationalism, regionalism, protectionism, and further counter-measures. Significantly, given economic and trade realism, whether the current Western concern over human rights is sustainable longer-term is an open question. Accordingly, weaponizing human rights in trade relations constitutes an omnipresent risk not only to China, but also to the US since economic practicalities and trade pragmatism could potentially precipitate a more Chinacentric international trade governance. Regardless of the outcome, connecting trade to human rights will likely lead to a re-shaping of the existing trade architecture. global trade, hegemonic rivalry, human rights, national security

Triad Analysis of Global Energy Trade Networks and Implications for Energy Trade Stability

An international push to decarbonize economies has initiated a major transition in the global energy system and has begun to disrupt the intricate network of energy trade. As trade patterns begin to reconfigure, it is important that policy makers understand how vulnerabilities of the existing network may present obstacles to a smooth energy transition. We analyze the topology of the global energy trade network in aggregate, for various energy commodities, and for individual countries. Using the network science technique of triad analysis, which examines the prevalence of 3-node subnetworks in a target network, we calculate triad significance profiles for each network. We then analyze whether various triads are under- or over-represented in our networks and find that triads associated with stability appear more frequently than expected, whereas triads associated with conflict appear less frequently than expected. We further find that the global energy trade network is quite robust against disruptions, maintaining its topological characteristics even after random removal of 80% of the network’s nodes. However, when analyzing individual countries, we find that some exhibit a high prevalence of unstable triads or a low prevalence of stabilizing triads, suggesting that vulnerabilities in global energy trade are more pronounced in some countries than others.

The Green Backlash against Economic Globalization

AbstractDespite the steady increase in environmental provisions being included in trade agreements to address potential environmental risks associated with increased trade, growing public concern about environmental issues has given rise to major public protests against various trade agreements. However, facing the widespread backlash against the liberal international economic order, pro-trade leaders have yet to respond adequately to the public's concern over the potential implications of trade on the environment. A review of European Union (EU) officials’ public communication on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership shows that trade advocates narrowly focus on the economic benefits of trade in their trade-related communication while paying little attention to the environmental impacts of the trade deal. This ignores an important aspect of the public discontent with economic globalization. This article argues that the pro-trade camp's failure to engage the public in an inclusive and transparent debate about the environmental effects of trade presents a missed opportunity that has triggered widespread resistance to trade liberalization. By studying the communication channel, this essay highlights the important role of information and dialogue as a potential response to the current public backlash against economic globalization.

Trade and welfare effects of a potential free trade agreement between Japan and the United States

This paper addresses the trade and welfare implications of a bilateral trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan. In 2019, the two countries signed a “stage one” trade agreement, with the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement (USJTA) and the U.S.-Japan Digital Trade Agreement as two small trade agreements. A comprehensive bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) is currently under discussion between Washington and Tokyo, with the U.S. government alternatively joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Based on the theoretical model of Caliendo and Parro (Rev Econ Stud, 82(1):1–44, 2015) , I analyze the welfare gains of such a bilateral FTA in the style of Aichele et al. (Where is the value added? China’s WTO entry, trade and value chains, ZBW-Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz, 2014). I simulate trade and welfare impacts for the USJTA and the U.S.-Japan Digital Trade Agreement, as well as for a deep bilateral FTA. In addition, I examine and compare the welfare implications of the established CPTPP with the scenario of the U.S. or China joining CPTPP. My findings show that Japan’s welfare increases by 0.3% and U.S. welfare increases by 0.14% as a result of the FTA. Welfare of both countries would increase if the U.S. entered CPTPP, with Japanese welfare being even higher if China acceded to CPTPP.