Trade Flows Research Articles

Impact of Trade Policies, Tariffs, and Sanitary and Phytosanitary Regulations on International Livestock Trade and Market Access for Livestock Producers in Brazil

Purpose: The aim of the study was to evaluate impact of trade policies, tariffs, and sanitary and phytosanitary regulations on international livestock trade and market access for livestock producers in Brazil. Methodology: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries. Findings: it's evident that trade policies, including tariffs and non-tariff measures, significantly influence bilateral trade flows in livestock products. Reductions in tariffs generally lead to increased trade, while increases in tariffs have the opposite effect, demonstrating the importance of tariff liberalization for stimulating trade and enhancing market access. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Theory of comparative advantage & new trade theory may be used to anchor future studies on impact of trade policies, tariffs, and sanitary and phytosanitary regulations on international livestock trade and market access for livestock producers in Brazil. Enhance capacity-building initiatives and technical assistance programs for developing countries to improve SPS compliance and facilitate trade in livestock products, thereby promoting inclusive trade practices. Negotiate comprehensive regional trade agreements (RTAs) that address trade facilitation measures, infrastructure development, and regulatory harmonization to maximize the benefits of market integration for the livestock sector.

Перспективные тенденции и направления развития внешнеторговых отношений сотрудничества РФ со странами АСЕАН

In today’s globalized economy, the trends and prospects of international cooperation actualize the need for an in-depth analysis of bilateral relations. The relations of the Russian Federation with the ASEAN countries (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) remain under-researched in the context of dynamically changing geopolitical landscape and economic sanctions, which forms a gap in modern scientific literature. The attractiveness of this topic for the author is due to the possibility of identifying new vectors of economic interaction, which can contribute to the development of strategies to strengthen the position of the Russian Federation in the international arena. The purpose of the study is to identify and analyze promising trends in foreign trade relations between the Russian Federation (RF) and ASEAN. The tasks include the study of trade structure, dynamics of investment flows and the development of recommendations for deepening economic cooperation. The methodological basis is statistical analysis, modeling of economic processes and expert assessments. To ensure the representativeness of the sample, international trade data for the last decade were used, as well as the results of surveys of representatives of the business and expert communities. The main result is the confirmation of the hypothesis about the significant potential for the development of trade relations in the sectors of high technology, energy and agriculture. It is shown that interaction with ASEAN can contribute to the diversification of Russian exports and reduce dependence on traditional trade partners. The results of the study can be applied in the development of state programs of foreign economic activity and strategies of international cooperation. The article also outlines the limitations of the current research, which include the instability of the international political environment and economic sanctions. In-depth analysis of tariff and non-tariff barriers, the impact of digitalization on trade flows and the study of multilateral cooperation opportunities within the BRICS and SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) frameworks are suggested as areas for future research.

Heterogeneous Impacts of the Korea-Japan Trade Dispute on Bilateral Agri-Food Trade

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to provide a rigorous quantitative assessment of the heterogeneous impacts of the Korea-Japan trade dispute on bilateral agri-food trade across different product categories. Design/Methodology/Approach - Based on a structural gravity model and a difference-in-differences approach, the paper estimates the effects of the dispute on trade flows in both aggregated and disaggregated HS 2-digit product levels. The analysis utilizes annual bilateral trade data from 2017-2022 and monthly data for 2019. Findings - The findings reveal significant declines in Japanese exports of vegetable products and prepared foodstuffs to Korea, consistent with the theoretical prediction that sectors with higher average consumer animosity would be more negatively affected. However, the results also point to potential trade diversion and substitution effects, as evidenced by the increase in Korean exports of animal/vegetable oils to Japan post-dispute. Research Implications - The findings have important implications in understanding the complex effects of trade disputes on sensitive sectors like agriculture. These emphasize the need to consider sector-specific dynamics and both short-term and long-term effects when assessing the consequences of trade tensions. The study contributes to the literature on the heterogeneous impacts of trade conflicts, and provides insights for evidence-based policymaking in navigating the global trade landscape.

ECONOMIC AND FUNCTIONAL DIMENSIONS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORT CORRIDORS IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBALIZATION

Under current conditions of growing interdependence of national economies, global supply chains are being transformed and trade flows are being reoriented. The dynamics and scale of these processes are largely determined by the efficiency of international transport corridors. Investments in transport corridors have a significant multiplier effect on the entire economy by stimulating the development of transport and logistics and related sectors of the economy, creating a growing demand in labour markets, and developing global value chains, international production, trade and logistics networks. The purpose of the article is to study the impact of international transport corridors on the development of territories at the national and regional levels. The use of descriptive statistics allowed to assess the impact of international transport corridors on the level of economic development, trade openness and foreign trade volumes based on the analysis of data from 121 countries. The links between the zones of influence of international transport corridors and other functional types of territories in Ukraine were investigated. The territorial coefficient of environmental load in the context of Ukrainian regions was calculated. The results of the study will be useful for both researchers in the field of logistics and transport infrastructure development and policymakers in the field of transport and economic policy.

Navigating the Complexities of International Economic Law: Implications for Global Trade and Investment

This paper explores the multifaceted landscape of international economic law and its profound implications for global trade and investment. Through a detailed examination of key legal instruments and treaties, including the World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements, Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs), and Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs), the study elucidates how these frameworks shape the regulatory environment for international commerce. Central principles of non-discrimination, most-favored-nation (MFN) treatment, and national treatment are dissected to understand their practical application and impact on trade and investment flows. The role of international organizations in creating, enforcing, and shaping the norms and standards of global economic interaction is critically assessed. Furthermore, the paper delves into the legal challenges and strategic considerations businesses face in navigating international trade, investment protection, intellectual property rights, and the burgeoning digital economy. By examining case studies and practical implementations, the study highlights the dynamic interaction between legal frameworks and business strategy in the context of digital trade, data protection, and the use of digital currencies and blockchain in trade finance. This comprehensive analysis aims to provide insights into the evolving landscape of international economic law and offer strategic guidance for businesses and policymakers navigating these complexities.

Exporting, Global Sourcing, and Multinational Activity: Theory and Evidence from the United States

Abstract Multinational firms (MNEs) dominate trade flows, yet their foreign production decisions are often ignored in firm-level studies of exporting and importing. Using newly merged data on US firms' trade and global production, we show that MNEs are more likely to trade with countries that are proximate to their affiliates. We rationalize these patterns with a new source of firm-level scale economies that arises when fixed costs to source from, or sell in, a market are shared across the MNE's plants. These shared fixed costs create interdependencies between firms' production and trade locations that generate third-market responses to trade policy changes.

Analysis of Interprovincial Trade Relationships Based on Improved Gravity Modeling

This paper analyzes the inter-provincial trade flows estimated by the improved gravity model using the complex network method. The article collects the distance and annual GDP value of each province from Baidu map and China Statistical Yearbook, and uses the gravity model to estimate the inter-provincial trade flow. Considering that the inter-provincial trade in the current year may be related to the GDP value of the previous year, the original model is improved by introducing the Gi-1 index and the results are normalized by multiplying them by 100 as the weights of the network constructed, and a fully connected network is established with the name of each province as a node connected network, and do the analysis of the network's node strength, weighted tight centrality, weight entropy of the three indicators, while using spectral clustering to further explore the trade relationship between the provinces.

Taking stock of trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China’s pre-WTO accession

We study the effects on international trade from the annual tariff uncertainty about China’s MFN status renewal in the U.S. prior to joining the WTO. We have four main findings. First, in the monthly data, trade increases significantly in anticipation of uncertain future increases in tariffs and falls upon renewal. The peak-to-trough swings in trade are 62 percent of the possible tariff change. Second, the probability of a tariff increase was perceived to be relatively small, with an average annual probability of non-renewal of about 3.2 percent. Third, the anticipatory dynamics are entirely driven by the expected increase in tariffs, while uncertainty dampens them. We identify these effects using within-year variation in the risk of trade policy changes around the renewal vote and trade flows. We show that a (s̲,s¯) inventory model generates this behavior and that variation in the strength of the stockpiling in advance of the renewal decision is increasing in the storability of goods. Fourth, the costs associated with the trade policy induced stockpiling reduce entrants’ incentive to operate in a market with tariff uncertainty. Our results explain why trade may hold up in advance of a prospective policy change but may fall sharply even if expected tariff increases do not materialize.

Trade and flow of value in global value chains

AbstractThis paper examines flow of value that goes with trade flows in global value chains (GVCs) by a residence‐based domestic value‐added trade measure. Accordingly, the paper puts forward a concept of residence‐based domestic value‐added exports from activity domains and develops a corresponding trade measure. Export activities of G20 economies are scrutinized empirically, with which sizeable differences are observed between figures in the proposed residence‐based domestic value‐added trade measure and the conventional domestic value‐added trade measure. This calls for new measures, to which the present study responds. It has been demonstrated that the developed G20 gains persistently in residence‐based domestic value‐added exports, increasing from the conventional domestic value‐added exports measure. Whereas trade performance of the developing G20 deteriorates with considerably reduced surpluses in the new measure. Considerable additional value flows out from developing to developed economies in GVCs. Developed economies continue to gain from international trade as a matter of fact.

Potential climate-induced impacts on trade: the case of agricultural commodities and maritime chokepoints

This study assesses the potential macro-economic effects of climate change affecting operations in three maritime chokepoints, i.e., the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Turkish Straits. The analysis focuses on agricultural commodities. It couples a “logistics” model of maritime trade flows with a Computable General Equilibrium model considering three modelling alternatives: (1) increase of “iceberg trade costs”, (2) shadow import tariffs, and (3) shadow export tariffs. Methodologically, we found a comforting qualitative agreement across methodologies in predicting the direction of changes in the main economic variables under scrutiny. However, negative GDP performances are more frequent and larger using the first method that also tends to predict lower import contractions than the other two methods. The impact assessment, examining storylines of climate-change-induced events delaying chokepoints operations, highlights that climate change impacts on chokepoints’ operations can convey detectable effects on production and prices of agricultural commodities associated with negative GDP impacts worldwide. In addition, although trade re-composition generates winners and losers, total losses tend to prevail. The combined GDP losses of the three chokepoints can reach $34 billion (2014 prices) in 2030. It shows that weather events in remote locations, such as the Panama Canal, can have cascading effects on the EU, with potential losses of USD 2 billion $ in GDP. North Africa, Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable. They suffer from a drop in imports of agricultural commodities and GDP losses in all the three cases. This impact assessment emphasizes another mechanism at play that could increase the asymmetry and the adverse distributional impacts of climate change on agriculture.

Trade flows, carbon leakage, and the EU Emissions Trading System

The EU Emission Trading System (EU ETS) has been shown to have reduced emissions in the participating countries and industries since its adoption in 2005. However, there is less evidence on the shifting of production outside EU to avoid emission controls. We study this so-called carbon leakage with gravity analysis of international trade flows and carbon intensities of trade. We utilize the gravity model on a sectoral level and study its implications empirically. Our findings with new OECD data indicate that some carbon leakage has in fact occurred due to the EU ETS, resulting in higher carbon content of imports to the EU. At the same time, we show that the EU ETS has induced lower carbon content of exports from the EU. In further analysis, we show that the carbon leakage we find has caused a moderate increase in total carbon content embodied in the EU’s trade, despite the decreases in exported carbon.

Changes in trade flows between Canada and Mexico: An orchestrated evolution

Changes in trade flows between Canada and Mexico: An orchestrated evolution

Negative allometry of leaf xylem conduit diameter and double-wall thickness: implications for implosion safety.

Xylem conduits have lignified walls to resist crushing pressures. The thicker the double-wall (T) relative to its diameter (D), the greater the implosion safety. Having safer conduits may incur higher costs and reduced flow, while having less resistant xylem may lead to catastrophic collapse under drought. Although recent studies have shown that conduit implosion commonly occurs in leaves, little is known about how leaf xylem scales T vs D to trade off safety, flow efficiency, mechanical support, and cost. We measured T and D in > 7000 conduits of 122 species to investigate how T vs D scaling varies across clades, habitats, growth forms, leaf, and vein sizes. As conduits become wider, their double-cell walls become proportionally thinner, resulting in a negative allometry between T and D. That is, narrower conduits, which are usually subjected to more negative pressures, are proportionally safer than wider ones. Higher implosion safety (i.e. higher T/D ratios) was found in asterids, arid habitats, shrubs, small leaves, and minor veins. Despite the strong allometry, implosion safety does not clearly trade off with other measured leaf functions, suggesting that implosion safety at whole-leaf level cannot be easily predicted solely by individual conduits' anatomy.

Eco-physiological behaviors of some apple genotypes (Malus x domestica Borkh.) in the hot-and-dry climate of an inner area of Southern Italy

The Italian internal areas are distant from the main trade flows and service centers, but have important environmental and cultural resources. The Italian “National Strategy for Inner Areas” represents a novel policy aimed at contrast the abandon of these territories by supporting multiple activities aimed at stimulating economic development and promoting territorial cohesion. The condition of marginality offers the chance to pursue economic development according to the principles of sustainability. These internal areas are often distinguished by a purely rural vocation. Genotypes of fruit crops traditionally grown in inland areas cope often with difficult climatic conditions and low-input farming techniques, showing generally a good tolerance to abiotic tresses. Exploring their eco-physiological behaviors in response to the agri-environmental context is useful for identifying crops capable of stimulating the recovery and expansion of a sustainable agriculture system in inland areas. The present work reports some results of a research conducted on three traditional local apple genotypes grown in an internal hot-arid summer area of Southern Italy, evaluating their water status and the intensity of leaf gas exchange compared to those of a well-known “standard” cultivar, in a hot, dry summer period. The local genotypes tested in this case study proved to be more eco-physiologically performing. The experiment allowed to estimate their probable relative eco-physiological advantages compared to the “standard” apple genotype taken as reference.

Is the impact of environmental regulations on the global value chains biased towards technological effects or refuge effects?

As an important factor endowment, environmental rules have a non-negligible impact on trade flows and patterns. Regarding the existing two completely different debates, this study uses simultaneous equations and the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to assess the interaction and spatial spillover effects of environmental rules and global value chains (GVCs), the aim is to determine whether the impact of environmental rules on GVCs is biased towards “technological effects” or “Refuge effect”. The research findings reveal: (1) When the environmental rules are strengthened by 1 %, the forward participation of GVCs in developed countries decreases by 0.2930 % and the backward participation of GVCs increases by 1.4327 %. This reveals that stricter environmental rules result in GVCs participation bias towards the “refuge effect” in developed countries. (2) When environmental rules are strengthened by 5 % and 1 %, respectively, the GVC forward and backward participation of developing countries decreases by 0.0477 % and 0.5113 %, respectively, which means that when the environmental rules become stricter, both the forward and backward participation of GVCs in developing countries are biased towards the “refuge effect”. (3) Concerning the spillover effects of environmental regulations on participation in GVCs, stricter environmental regulations in developed countries impede their own forward participation in GVCs but promote their backward participation, with insignificant indirect effects. Additionally, stringent environmental regulations in developing countries impede their own forward participation in GVCs and similarly do not contribute to the enhancement of forward participation in neighboring developing countries. Therefore, this study suggests that developed countries can transfer green technology to developing countries through technology transfer agreements to promote mutual development. Moreover, developing countries actively adjust their industrial structure, increase investment in technology R&D, and cooperate with other countries and regions, which will help countries learn from best practices and coordinate their responses to common environmental challenges.

Enhancing Transshipment Decision-making in Transportation Companies through Computational Intelligence: A Bayesian Game Model with Data-Driven Simulations at Guangzhou Port

The challenge of port congestion significantly impedes the efficiency of global trade flows and the economic vitality of hinterland regions. Addressing this issue, our study harnesses computational intelligence to construct a sophisticated Bayesian game model between the government and multiple transportation companies, where the transshipment costs, considered as private information to the companies, play a pivotal role. This research integrates data analytics and machine learning techniques to analyze the strategic decision-making processes of transportation companies, which decide on transshipment based on a critical cost threshold influenced by government subsidies and a probabilistic assessment of transshipment costs. Utilizing backward induction, the study outlines how the government can leverage computational models to devise an optimal subsidy strategy for transshipment, taking into account the anticipated responses of the transportation companies. The Bayesian Nash equilibrium identified through our model suggests that companies with costs below a predefined threshold are incentivized by government subsidies to opt for transshipment. This conclusion is further validated through evolutionary game theory analysis, enriched by data-driven simulations. Employing real-world data from Guangzhou Port, we conducted extensive computational simulations to quantify the impact of transshipment subsidies. The findings reveal a substantial alleviation in port congestion, with a 33.7% reduction in congestion levels and a 35% decrease in congestion-related costs, alongside a notable 1.9% increase in government revenue. These simulations, powered by advanced computational algorithms and data analytics, not only underscore the effectiveness of informed subsidy strategies in mitigating port congestion but also demonstrate the potential of integrating computational approaches in logistical and transportation decision-making. This study contributes a novel computational framework to the logistics and transportation literature, offering practical insights for policymakers to tackle the enduring problem of port congestion through data-driven strategies.

Revisiting methods for estimating interregional input-output accounts: It's not just about trade flows

A basic underlying assumption in most of the research to date is that intermediate industry accounts of the economies in multiregional input-output (MRIO) tables exist and are accurate. In fact, if they exist at the subnational level, such accounts are, at best, roughly estimated and predicated on far less empirical information than is available for economies of nations. Moreover, intra-economy intermediate-industry flows are typically larger than the set of a region's commodity in- and out-flows. So, if intermediate industry flows in a set of MRIO accounts are noticeably mis-estimated, it follows that interregional trade coincidentally derived using them must be even more conspicuously in error.We hypothesize as more information is used to estimate MRIO accounts, the better the estimates should be. We start our experiment by consolidating 2019 FIGARO accounts of the 27 member states of the European Union, while maintaining sectoral detail, to produce a “national account”. We then test several approaches to constructing MRIO tables. The approaches distribute interregional trade fully by receiving industry, as in FIGARO, as well as strictly in the form of a diagonalized matrix as if the commodity inflows are competitive imports. To do this, both a gravity model and RAS are applied to each approach. We then test to see how well the approaches estimate main features of FIGARO's MRIO accounts and detail a rather consistent ranking of the relative accuracy of them. We also find that the level of error inherent to the estimated MRIOs is markedly similar across approaches, particularly for multipliers. Further, relaxing interregional trade to a diagonalized matrix tends to add very little error. The approach that uses the least data is, however, markedly worse in replicating countries’ direct requirements matrices and Leontief inverses, which suggests its use in a more-limited set of applications.

Economic Fundamentals and Real Exchange Rate in African Oil Producing Countries: Evidence from Asymmetric Cointegration

The role of exchange rates is very important in the international market and the variability of exchange rates both in the case of appreciation or depreciation is directly connected with the economic performance of a country. Exchange rate variations in oil-producing countries in Africa have been too high resulting in volatilities due to domestic and foreign shocks. High volatility of exchange rate may translate into reduction of trade flows, foreign direct investment, and instability in both interest rates and inflation rates. Several studies on the relationship between economic fundamentals and exchange rates focused more on Africa or country-specific with limited focus on African oil-producing countries using asymmetric cointegration. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between some economic fundamentals and real exchange rates in oil-producing countries in Africa. The dynamics panel non-linear autoregressive distributed lag and linear autoregressive distributed lag were used to investigate the relationship between economic fundamentals and real exchange rate (RER). The NARDL result shows evidence that there exists both short and long-run asymmetric relationship between economic fundamentals and RER. The study recommended that policymakers in these countries pay more attention to their macroeconomic policies to reduce the production and transaction costs of foreign direct investment (FDI).

Consumerism, absorbing anti-consumer discourse, and socialism, absorbing capitalist culture

This article can be divided into two parts. The first reveals the essence of the process of how capital in the conditions of modern consumer society absorbs anti-consumer discourse and neutralizes the subversive component from it. Films and books that expose manipulative advertising and branding technologies become brands. Cultural products directed against the values of consumer culture are widely replicated and integrated into the trade flow. In the second part, we will consider the reverse side of the phenomenon of absorption, namely, the history of how the Bolshevik movement, in turn, put elements of capitalist culture at its service. The phenomenon of absorption, immanently characteristic of both capitalist and communist projects, is pointed out. The methodological basis of the research is the neo-Marxist method. The work is carried out in an interdisciplinary style: the author uses philosophical, political, sociological and historical approach.

Analysis of Road 3 Asia (R3A)’s Impacts on Border Trade of Thailand

Trade opening has become an important asset for economic development in many countries and an important engine of economic globalization (Wang, Shan-Li, et al, 2020). With continuous foster on the regional economic cooperation, countries with close proximity further promote the mobility and development of infrastructures and policies. Nevertheless, testing a trade integration model of bilateral trade is not sufficiently well estimated with the Bayesian approach to provide practical evidence of trade integration. Moreover, in identifying the factors determining trade integration, testing using the Bayesian gravity equation is essential. After performing a series of simulation experiments, a relationship between bilateral trade volume and simulated trade determinants was predicted for the trade model. The results of the estimated coefficients on GDP in Thailand and GDP of Yunnan province, China are positively significant predictors of the trade growth. The distance between the countries has a negatively significant estimation that implies barriers in trade. The model predicts trade integration, especially towards the trade on route R3A. The Bayesian approach of the gravity model gives robust estimates for determining the impact factor for the bilateral trade, including the fact that the elasticities of total trade volume with respect to distance, population, and the exchange rate of Thailand are negative while the GDP per capita are positively significant. Further, economic size, GDP per capita, and exchange rate of the destination, and population and area of Yunnan province are positively predicted by the model. The estimated parameters are directly the elasticities, in which increases in GDP is consistent with the higher trade volumes. Further, evidence of the gravity equation is used for understanding trade potential, and after some integrations, the estimation is applied for the real trade. The measures of bilateral trade resistance or costs associated with the trade flow has influenced the expanding of the bilateral trade in the model in the GMS economies. Finally, trade integration can be implemented with evidence and estimates of the gravity model. The Bayesian experiment for the estimation of the impacts of the trade integration on route R3A predicts an increase of GDP, population, exchange rate, and GDP per capita as predominant predictors in the Bayesian gravity model. Thus, the results revealed that economic size, bilateral distance, and GDP per capita has affected the plausible trade agreements for trade integration on route R3A.