Trade Complementarity Research Articles

Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of Each Totalization Agreement

Totalization agreements coordinate the United States Social Security program with other countries’ comparable programs. We estimate each totalization agreement’s impact on a variety of bilateral trade outcomes. We find the impact is quite heterogeneous, both across agreements/countries and across sectors within a country. Moreover, we find agreements that entered into force more recently tend to increase total imports and decrease total exports by more than earlier agreements. We find no significant relationship between totalization agreements’ estimated impacts and economic indicators such as the trade complementarity index between the U.S. and the agreement countries. Finally, we find sectors where the U.S. has a larger revealed comparative advantage relative to the agreement country tend to experience a larger increase in exports following the totalization agreement. However, there is no significant relationship between revealed comparative advantage and the estimated impact on imports across sectors. In future work, we will investigate in more detail both the correlation between the heterogeneity across sectors within a country and the heterogeneity across countries, as well as the correlation between totalization agreements and the declining U.S. trade balance in the past few decades.

한국과 신남방국가 간 무역결합도 분석

한국과 신남방국가 간 무역결합도 분석

ANALYSIS AND RESEARCH ON CHINA MONGOLIAN TRADE COMPETITION AND COMPLEMENTARITY


 
 
 The development of trade between China and Mongolia should be based on complementary product trade. On this basis, products with trade potential should be continuously explored to expand the scale and structure of China- Mongolian trade and promote the continuous development of bilateral trade. This paper analyzes the current situation of economic and trade cooperation and trade complementarity between China and Mongolia, and concludes that China and Mongolia have different comparative advantages in export products. Mongolia's export is highly integrated with China's trade, and the two countries are highly complementary in trade.
 
 

International Legal Format for Trans Regionalisation of Trade and Economic Partnership within BRICS in Global Development

An integral part of globalisation is the emergence of a multipolar world. Strategic partnership at the regional, interregional and trans-regional levels is becoming a new institution and an instrument of modern international relations. The research discusses the international legal cooperation framework of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) as a trans-regional association. The importance of rapprochement of the positions of the BRICS countries in the global political and economic system is emphasised. Particular attention is paid to assessing the BRICS countries economic potential and condition of their national economies, as well as analysing the foreign trade partners of Russia with the BRICS countries, development opportunities and prospects. The following results were obtained: positive factors contributing to the BRICS countries’ trade and economic cooperation strengthening are common interests in trade, export activity and export complementarity of some economic sectors, and the absence of direct competition. The measures to increase and expand mutually beneficial trade and economic partnership within BRICS will enable the countries to most effectively use their resource, technological and trade and economic potential to ensure sustainable growth of the national economy and competitiveness in world development. The results obtained can help formulate a trade and economic cooperation strategy within the BRICS framework.

China and South Asia Logistics Industry Development Based on Marine Water Conservation

Liu, L., 2019. China and South Asia logistics industry development based on marine water conservation. In: Guido-Aldana, P.A. and Mulahasan, S. (eds.), Advances in Water Resources and Exploration. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 93, pp. 1066–1072. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.The term “One Belt and One Road”, firstly initiated by the Chinese Government, has brought new opportunities for the effect of China on South Asian countries in the economic and trade cooperation. From 2005 to 2016, the scale of goods trade between South Asian countries and China increased significantly, and South Asia gradually became an important trading partner of China. The structure of China's export products to South Asian countries has not changed much and most of which are technology and capital-intensive processed products. However, the elements of China's import products has changed a lot under marine water conservation and tends to be diversified and rationalized. This paper analyzes the complementarity and competitiveness of trade between China and South Asian countries by applying existing indicators, e.g., revealed comparative advantage index (RCA), trade integration index (TII), trade complementarity index (TCI), export similarity index (ESI) and trade competitiveness index (CI).The results show that China's trade with South Asian countries is more complementary than competitive, and there is great potential for international logistics between China and South Asian countries. According to the situation of marine water conservation, we should make use of trade complementarity to improve the structure of foreign trade, strengthen trade negotiations and advance the development of free trade zones, as well as strengthen infrastructure construction and promote connectivity, in order to increase international trade value and promote logistics industry in China and South Asian countries.

EU AGRICULTURAL INTEGRATED POLICIES: THE CASE OF EU AND MEDITERRANEAN COUNTIES

EU agricultural integrated policies among the EU and the southern Mediterranean countries are more evidently distilled through the EU-Mediterranean process (EUROMED). After 10 years of the Agadir agreement entry into force, this paper attempts to assess the agriculture trade integration among countries signed under the agreement, namely Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan, by evaluating firstly the degree of sectorial and geographical dispersion of the four countries agricultural exports and secondly appraising the extent of agricultural trade complementarity towards EU countries. In this study, using the available agricultural trade data for the period 2007-2016 and the twenty-four agricultural sectors classification (CN codes 01-24), we will build three trade indices; Regional Hirschman, Sectorial Hirschman and the Trade Complementarity Index. And, finally, we will discuss the result and highlight the limitation and the challenges that hinder agricultural trade integration among southern and northern Mediterranean countries.

Competitiveness or Complementarity? A Dynamic Network Analysis of International Agri-Trade along the Belt and Road

The proposal of the Belt and Road Initiative has created new opportunities for agricultural product trading. In this study, we conduct an empirical analysis of the competitiveness and complementarity of agri-trade among countries in the region by constructing dynamic networks based on the Export Similarity Index and Trade Complementarity Index from 2005 to 2016. The results indicate that competitiveness and complementarity came to coexist within 10 years and the density of both competitiveness and complementarity network increased; overall, complementarity was greater than competitiveness. The assortativity and disassortativity of competitiveness and complementarity also coexisted in agri-trade; country pairs with high complementarity in the region increased during the study period, indicating that there are more opportunities for cooperation among countries; there are three important competitive blocks and an important complementary block in the network. One competitive block was led by China, including countries with developed basic agriculture (e.g., Egypt). The other two were composed of countries in Central East Europe and West Asia & Middle East as well as several Southeast Asian countries. Countries in the important complementary block were mainly from CEE and WA & ME in 2005, with some Southeast and South Asian countries joining by 2016.

Complementarity of Trade between Ukraine and the People’s Republic of China as an Indicator of the Effectiveness of Bilateral Cooperation

Complementarity of Trade between Ukraine and the People’s Republic of China as an Indicator of the Effectiveness of Bilateral Cooperation

Pakistan's Trade Complementarities with OECD Countries

This paper has made an empirical analysis to ascertain complementarities of Pakistan with OECD countries. The objective of the study is to check how well export of Pakistan matches with the import of OECD countries in order to find out the suitable courtiers, with them Pakistan can boost its export. Annual data has been taken from Un-Com trade’s webs site over the period 2001-2015, based on SITC Rev.3 at two digit level. 96 Product categories as whole, and used Trade Complementarity Index as a measure for assesses Complementarity of Pakistan with all OECD countries that is 33 in number. Result of Trade complementarity indices shows that if answer of TCI is more near to one that is more favorable and well match partner for trade. Most of the results of our study is above 0.2 that means Pakistan export partially match with the most of the countries just answer of hungry is below than 0.2 meaning that Pakistan need to fuscous upon all OECD countries for boost its export.

An empirical analysis of India’s trade in goods with BRICS

The purpose of this paper is to examine the empirically the trade flows between India and BRICS. The bilateral revealed comparative advantage index (BRCA) is computed for the assessment of comparative advantages of exports by India to BRICS countries for period 2001–2015. In addition, the trade complementarity index (TCI) between India and remaining BRICS countries is examined. The study has employed the gravity model of trade to find the role of selected variables on promoting India’s trade with BRICS countries. The findings of BRCA concluded that India holds a comparative advantage predominantly in agricultural and allied products followed by manufacturing and man-made products. BRCA analysis indicated minor structural changes between the years 2001 and 2015 for India’s export basket with BRICS countries. The higher TCI values suggested the scope of trade potential between India and BRICS countries. The results of panel gravity model for exports, imports and trade showed that most of the variables have the expected sign and are statistically significant. Results suggested that among the other variables, GDPs of trading countries and population can explain export, import and total trade flows. One of the major findings of the gravity analysis confirmed that distance acts negative, as a major constraint in increasing the trade flows of India with BRICS.

Bilateral Trade Performance in West Africa: A Gravity Model Estimation

AbstractThis study provides empirical insights on the functioning of regional trade agreements within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) by identifying bilateral trade barriers that affect the extent of trade flows among member countries. Also, it highlights some trade barrier indicators that are rarely covered in extant studies, such as the multilateral resistance term, the extent of trade complementarity, and the presence of economic integration agreements among ECOWAS member countries. We then provide augmented gravity model estimation on the determinants of bilateral trade in the region. We find, among other things, that trade complementarity had a positive and significant effect on bilateral trade within the sub‐region region. Other important determinants of intra‐regional trade include multilateral trade resistance and economic integration agreements — meaning that countries with some kind of agreement like the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) tend to trade more among themselves than other member countries.

ԵՎՐԱՍԻԱԿԱՆ ՏՆՏԵՍԱԿԱՆ ՄԻՈՒԹՅԱՆ ԱՆԴԱՄ ԵՐԿՐՆԵՐԻ ՓՈԽԱԴԱՐՁ ԱՌԵՎՏՐԻ ՎԵՐԼՈՒԾՈՒԹՅՈՒՆԸ/MUTUAL TRADE ANALYSIS OF EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION MEMBER STATES/АНАЛИЗ ВЗАИМНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ГОСУДАРСТВ-ЧЛЕНОВ ЕВРАЗИЙСКОГО ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО СОЮЗА

The purpose of this article is to identify trends in the development of integration processes in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and present the level of trade and economic relations between the participating countries through an analysis of mutual trade between the member countries of the Union. Studying the movement and structure of trade relations between the EAEU member states, there has been identified those economic areas the development which can hence contribute to the expansion of mutual trade. To present the level of trade complementarity between member states, the author calculated the trade complementarity indexes in accordance with the commodity structure of trade of each country with other EAEU member countries and presented their estimates. Finally, some obstacles to the balanced development of mutual trade of the EAEU member countries has been laid out and a number of ways of eliminating them has been then presented.

Empirical analysis of export trade patterns from China to Latin America

In recent years, the relations between China and Latin America have experienced adramatic deepening. Latin America is expected to become the last part of the magnificent "The Belt andRoad" development program, in order to achieve a new historic opportunity for commercial cooperationbetween China and Latin America. In this case, it is necessary to carry out a deeper analysis of theexport potential between the two parties. First, from a historical perspective, this work analysesthe development and current situation of trade between China and Latin America, the structure ofcommodities of export from China to Latin America and the distribution of the country through the UNstatistical database. Then analyses the competitiveness and trade complementarity between China andthe main Latin American countries using the formula. According to the results, since the 20th centurythe import and export trade between China and Latin America has grown vigorously, but the growthrate has slowed and has even declined in recent years. Between China and Latin American countriesthere is a strong degree of complementarity in trade, but this degree has shown a downward trend.Among Latin American countries, Mexico is the country that dominates the highest competitiveness andthe least narrow trade link with China; While Venezuela, Peru and Chile are the countries that maintainthe greatest complementarity and the strongest trade link with China. Finally, this work proposes welltargetedpolicy recommendations.

Development of trade and economic cooperation between China and Russia in new geopolitical conditions

The article analyzes the trade relations between Russia and China in the modern period characterized by changes in the situation on the world stage and in the domestic political life of countries. The dynamics and commodity structure of bilateral trade of Russia and China have been studied, the Index of trade com-plementarity has been calculated, which showed that Chinese exports are more complementary to the structure of Russian imports than vice versa. Emphasis is placed on traditional trade in goods, excluding services and cross-border e-Commerce. The paper identifies two main directions which the development of Russian exports to China can take in the conditions of the "trade war" of China and the United States. The short-sighted policy of increasing only fuel and energy exports is justified. The reasons hindering the development of non-resource exports of Russia, primarily agricultural products and food, to China have been identified.

Competitiveness Analysis and Factors Affecting Trade of Main Commodities between Indonesia and Turkey

This study aims to analyze the competitiveness, trade integration, trade complementarity, and factors affecting the export and import of main commodities between Indonesia and Turkey. Data used in this study is time series data in 1996-2018 and the methods used are Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Intra-Industry Trade (IIT), Trade Complementarity Index (TCI), and Ordinary Least Square (OLS). Results of RCA showed Indonesia's main export commodities to Turkey are woven fabrics, stearic acid, palm oil and natural rubber. While IIT showed that there is only one way trade from Indonesia. Import commodities from Turkey are carpets, borax, wheat flour, and tobacco. TCI showed low complementarity between Indonesia�s export and Turkey�s import. GDP per capita has positive impact on exports and imports. The exchange rate has positive impact on exports and negative on imports. Price and tariff rate have negative impact on both exports and imports. Dummy Non-tariff barrier has negative impact on exports while in import side, it only affects the wheat flour negatively. The Government of Indonesia should pursue a strategy in trade cooperation as efforts to reduce trade barriers such as tariffs and non-tariffs for some commodities that have competitiveness in the Turkish market.

Research on the Competitiveness and Complementarity of China-Indonesia Bilateral Trade

This paper uses comtrade data to calculate the export similarity index, trade integration index and intra-industry trade index between China and Indonesia. These three indices help to analyze the competitiveness and complementarity of bilateral trade between the two countries. The conclusions are as follows: As the trade between China and Indonesia are progressively closer, and the bilateral trade in the two countries is highly complementary and each has its own advantageous industries. On this basis, we put forward several opinions: Under the background of “Belt and Road”, Chinese enterprises will increase investment in Indonesia's oil and gas exploration, fishery and other industries. Besides, they also can expand investment areas, accelerate the construction of infrastructure in the two countries, and increase the export of superior products.

Assessing the agricultural trade complementarity of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries

This paper aims to investigate the agricultural trade complementarity of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries on the global agricultural market over the period 1997–2015 by employing the trade complementarity index (TCI), the export similarity index (ESI), and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients for competitiveness indicators. The results indicate that: (i) the ASEAN countries’ agricultural export patterns are weakly complementary in matching the regional import demands; while (ii) they are relatively complementary in exporting agricultural products to the world market; (iii) the countries’ agricultural competitiveness patterns are more affected by and benefited from the global integration than the regional integration; and (iv) the countries, moreover, tend to become more substitutable over time. The research results suggest that the ASEAN countries should cooperate and utilise the internal markets to enhance the competitiveness and predominantly focus on the external global markets.

Agricultural trade pattern and potential in China and Russia

It makes use of the trade complementarity index, trade integration index and export concentration index to conduct an in-depth analysis of trade development process and the import and export structure of agricultural products between China with Russia from 2006 to 2017. The results show that degree of integration of China’s agricultural trade with Russia continues to increase, and its trade structure is highly complementary. At the same time, the types of agricultural trade between them have increased significantly. The trade pattern of agricultural products is dominated by medium- and low-end primary agricultural products in China and Russia. The share of deep-processed agricultural products is relatively small, and the trade structure of agricultural products is monotonous, the bilateral trade potential has not yet been fully realized between China with Russia. Under the background of the “One Belt and One Road” initiative and the construction of China- Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor, the trade potential between China and Russia will increase rapidly and the trade space will further expand.

A Study of Trade Complementarity between China and the Baltic States and its Development Strategies

The paper mainly studies trade complementarity between China and three Baltic States, namely Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The paper first introduces China and the three Baltic States’ current trade situation. It then makes an empirical analysis on the trade complementarity between China and the three Baltic States by using models of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and trade complementarity index (TCI) respectively, which reveals that complementarities of China to the Baltic States are mainly in the labor-intensive products, while complementarities of the three Baltic States to China are in the resource-intensive products. However, the current structure of imported goods from the Baltic States to China is different from the results of complementarity analysis. In this study an expanded trade gravity model is used to analyze trade potential, which helps to develop feasible trade strategies and it shows that trade between China and the Baltic States needs to be fully exploited.

Nigeria-India Bilateral Trade Relations: An Analysis of Trade Complementarity Index (TCI)

This study used simple descriptive analysis and trade complementarity index to examine Nigeria-India bilateral trade relation for the period 2000-2014. Evidence from the trade composition result shows that Nigeria’s imports from India are more diversified than its exports. All the major products imported from India by Nigeria accounts for a very much significant share in its total import while for the export only mineral fuels seem to contribute much to the Nigeria’s exports to India. Throughout the whole period, there exist a partial match between Nigeria’s exports supply and the India’s imports demand as the trade complementarity indices lies between 31.98 and 45.21. Despite the existence of partial export and import match between Nigeria and India the trade complementarity index has been steadily increasing from 2000-2014, implying that Nigeria and India trade profiles are becoming more compatible. Thus, the study also recommends that the Nigerian government, export promotion agencies, ministries, exporters and other stakeholders should focus attention on identify realistic export opportunities in Indian markets in order to boost and diversified Nigeria’s export through the use of more scientific, realistic and empirical approach.