Commodity Structure Of Trade Research Articles

Многополярное замедление и оживление мировой торговли

We conduct a statistical study of the global trade slowdown relative to industrial production after the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the revival of the global trade in 2017. We aim to decompose the overall effect by geographical and commodity dimensions, that is, to determine the contribution of regions, major countries and aggregated commodity groups to the global trade slowdown and revival. Calculation scheme implies the two-way analysis, both from the demand and the supply side (imports and exports, respectively), and relies on the customs data. The focus on merchandise trade is confirmed by the fact that the growth rates of world imports and exports in constant prices for services decreased much less after the crisis of 2008-2009 than for goods. We analyze the dynamics of world trade relative to the dynamicsof industrial production, not GDP, due to the very high volatility of trade to GDP. The data comes from the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, WTO, World Bank, OECD, FAO andthe Chatham House Resource Trade Database. The key feature of the proposed scheme is aligning data on international trade growth for largest countries from different sources with CPB data for the world as a whole.The results of the study show that the slowdown in global exports was largely associated with emerging economies of Asia (and, primarily, China), Japan, Germany and the US, while the slowdown in global imports reflected the drop in demand in China and other emerging economies of Asia, the Euro Area, Russia and Brazil. The revival of global exports was driven by China,Japan, Netherlands, South Korea and Mexico, and the revival of world imports boils down to the demand growth in China, India and Russia. Unlike the global trade slowdown, the revival of the world trade was critically concentrated in emerging countries, while the Euro Area has practically not experienced the revival. An important role in the global trade slowdown was played by China and its reorientation to the domestic market after the crisis of 2008-2009. In terms of commodity structure of global trade, the slowdown was almost entirely associated with non-resource goods.The results can be used to refine the forecasts of the global merchandise trade growth by accounting for the contribution of the major countries more accurately.

Similarity assessment of the commodity structure of foreign trade in the European Union countries

An important element of the foreign trade research is an analysis of its commodity and geographical structure. A method of examining the similarity of foreign trade structure was proposed in this article and applied on the example of certain EU countries. The aim of this article is to assess the degree of similarity of foreign trade structures and to indicate the extent to which it reflects differences in economic development. The study was conducted with the use of an original indicator of commodity structure similarity and a hierarchical cluster analysis for the period 2006—2015. It enabled to identify the most similar countries in terms of foreign trade structure. Data for the computations were obtained from the Eurostat. The obtained results proved that countries with similar economic potential have a similar foreign trade structure.

Analysis and Countermeasure Study on the Export Commodity Structure of China in the Post-Crisis Era

In the post-crisis era, the total volume of China’s foreign trade shows a trend of increase, the capacity to earn foreign exchange through exports has enhanced increasingly. China has replaced American to become the first large trading country in the world. However, the world’s trade commodity structure is developing toward the direction of high technology, service and green product, while the export commodity structure of China mismatches the international market demand. How to improve and optimize the export commodity structure of China and stabilize Chinese export trade have become the problems to be solved urgently. This thesis analyzes the current situation of the export commodity structure of China based on introducing the export commodity structure with the object of trade in goods, and proposes relevant optimization measures aimed to the demand of international market.

CHANGES IN FOREIGN TRADE IN AGRI-FOOD PRODUCTS BETWEEN THE EU AND CHINA

The aim of the paper was to identify the changes in bilateral trade in agri-food products between the EU and China, as well as to assess – in mutual relations – ex post competitive advantages of major groups of agri-food products in 2008– 2015. The research is based on data from the Statistical Offi ce of the European Union (Eurostat). The analysis covered the value, trade balance, shares in total trade and commodity structure of trade in agri-food products between the EU and China. Selected indices of revealed comparative advantage (XRCA, MRCA, RTA), Coverage Ratios (CR), Specialization Indicators (SI), and the indices of Intra-Industry Trade (IIT) were calculated for major product groups of the Combined Nomenclature. It was proved that bilateral trade in agri-food products between the EU and China has increased signifi cantly in 2008–2015, and the EU transformed from an importer to a net exporter. Despite the intensifi cation of mutual trade, the importance of China in the EU export of agri-food products remained relatively small. The structure of bilateral trade in agri-food products between the EU and China is consistent with the distribution of comparative advantages obtained by exporters and it is shaped under assumptions of the theory of similarity of preferences, the theory of product diff erentiation of the Armington type, and the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson theorem of resources abundance. It can be considered that the Chinese agri-food sector is still in the stage of a factor-driven economy, while the agriculture and food industry in the EU countries has reached the stage of an innovation-driven economy.

Agricultural Production and Trade Structure Profile in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

The African region represents the weak point of the world economy. Many African countries have still not finished the process of transforming their economy. Agriculture represents only a minor portion of their economies’ performance – however it is still a key sector of the economy (especially considering the number of people working in agriculture or people representing the agricultural population). The agricultural sector in many sub-Saharan countries is extremely sensitive and its stability affects the stability of the whole region. A very good example representing sub-Saharan Africa is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It is a country with a lot of potential, but it is classified among the poorest countries in the world. Its economy is extremely weak (despite its significant share in total GDP formation value), and underdeveloped. The share of agriculture in total GDP formation is over 42.5%. The number of people living in rural areas represents over 45 million out of a total of 75 million. The number of people working in agriculture is over 60% of the total economically active population. The economy of the country is extremely poor and fragile, mainly because of political instability. The aim of this paper is firstly to specify the position of agriculture in the DRC economy, and also to specify the production and trade commodity structure in relation to other African countries. The paper’s ambition is to identify the most perspective commodities (groups of commodities), both for production and also for trade, and to recommend such a production and trade profile which would allow the DRC the possibility of improving its competitiveness - not only in relation to other African countries, but also in relation to the global market. The production and trade commodity structures are analysed through the application of the BCG method and competitiveness analysis. In relation to these objectives, the paper provides the following conclusions. The position of agriculture in the DRC economy is stable one. Furthermore, agriculture probably represents the most stable part of the DRC economy. According to the portfolio and competitiveness analyses, the most important commodity items for the DRC are the following: Rice paddy, Maize, and Cassava. The most competitive trade items are particularly Coffee, Tea, and Cocoa, and Sugar Raw centrifugal. The most notable weakness of DRC agriculture is the production of Wheat, Beverages, Poultry Meat, and Fixed Vegetable Oils.

Зовнішня торгівля товарами Дніпропетровської області

The article substantiates the actuality of the study of foreign trade of Ukraine’s regions as full subjects of foreign economic relations during European integration of Ukraine. The foreign trade of Dnipropetrovsk region in 2004-2015 and its place in the total volume of Ukraine’s foreign trade is investigated. Three maps and statistic graphics showing the geographic and commodity structure, dynamics, balance and efficiency of the foreign trade of Dnipropetrovsk region are presented in the article.The analysis of geographic and commodity structure of foreign trade of Dnipropetrovsk region was conducted on the basis of statistical data and maps. It was found that the largest share in total exports (53.2%) traditionally are ferrous and non- ferrous metals and articles thereof, including copper, nickel, aluminum. Fuel, energy products and chemical products make up the largest share of imports. Volumes of foreign trade of Dnipropetrovsk region are compared with relevant maximum indicators (Kyiv) and averaged regional indicators. The share of EU, CIS and other countries in export and import of goods in Dnipropetrovsk region is presented. The dynamics of development of foreign trade in Dnipropetrovsk region is outlined. Trade trends has been changed during 2013-2015 years: export to CIS countries has decreased, exports to Africa has increased and the share of EU countries in the field of foreign trade has increased markedly. The downward trend in imports from the CIS appeared earlier - in 2010.The weights of cities and administrative districts in the foreign trade of region were analyzed. Major trading volumes are concentrated in large cities. The balance of foreign trade is positive for all of them, except for the regional centre. Dnipropetrovsk and Kryvyi Rig provide 78% of region export. Imports of Dnipropetrovsk is about 65% of the whole region imports. The level of foreign trade development of region is assessed based on indicators of volume, efficiency and differentiation of commodity and geographical structure of foreign trade.The analysis shows the significant structural and territorial imbalance in foreign trade and excessive concentration of international activities in Dnipropetrovsk (regional center). Therefore, the sectoral and geographical structure of foreign trade activities should be diversified by the agricultural production and exclusive metallurgical products like electrical steel, automotive sheet, etc. It is important to engage periphery producers in foreign trade and to find new markets.Keywords: foreign trade, export, import, commodity structure of trade, geographical structure of trade, maps of foreign trade

Foreign trade in agricultural products in the Czech Republic

Th e article analyses trends in the territorial and commodity structure of the Czech foreign agrarian trade and aims to identify changes which have occurred during the last decade. Th e main emphasis has been put on the period after the accession to the EU. Primarily such changes are identifi ed, that occurred in the relation to the EU-Member States and to third countries. Th e results show that the value of agricultural exports and imports was growing during the surveyed period while the growth rate of agricultural exports was above the growth rate of agricultural imports. Agricultural exports increased from CZK 78 billion in 2005 to more than CZK 160 billion in 2013 and the imports rose from CZK 103 billion to more than CZK 184 billion in the same period. Th e territorial structure of the foreign agrarian trace is continuously concentrating on the EU-Single Market, both in terms of exports and imports. Exports of milk, milk products, cereals, beverages, food preparations, tobacco and tobacco manufactures, cereal preparations, food residues and waste, oilseeds, vegetable fats and oils, sugar and confectionery belong to the most important commodity aggregations. Th e share of proce- ssed products in the total exports increased and reached currently about 7%. Th e export - import coverage ratio reached a satisfactory trend as well. Although the Czech Republic does not have ideal conditions for the export-oriented agriculture, the country is able to gain comparative advantages, at least at the level of following aggregations: HS10, HS01, HS12, HS24, HS04, HS17, HS15, HS11, HS16, HS22, HS03 a HS13.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC INTEGRATION OF GEORGIA WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION AND PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT

At the present stage of development the process of integration of Georgia into the world economic system is getting deeper and deeper. That’s why for the formation of the right economic policy of the country it is necessary to assess these processes correctly and analyze the further perspectives. On the basis of proven statistical methods – statistical observation, grouping and methods of analysis – there have been analyzed the data of foreign trade of Georgia from the Geographical point of view, characterized the dynamic of the export and import stream, the commodity structure of foreign trade of Georgia on the basis of which there have been revealed the positive and negative sides of the current changes in this field. There have also been discussed the problems of indexes of foreign trade in Georgia. In order to calculate the main characteristics of foreign trade there have been used the stochastic models of the time series. On the basis of models selected as a result of testing the classical methods of regressive analysis there have been done the forecast calculations and on basis of the received results the corresponding conclusions have been reached. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.em.19.4.8531

Production and Foreign Trade of Mineral Products in Latvia and Belarus

Latvia and Belarus are small countries with limited scope of natural resources. However, the available mineral resources play important role in production of mineral products for domestic and foreign consumption. Main goal of the paper is to characterize the role of extraction industry in national economy and mineral products trade in two neighboring countries - Latvia and Belarus. To achieve the goal, the role of mining and quarrying industry in Latvia and Belarus was identified; trade of mineral resources in Latvia was analyzed. The main trends in the development of its own mineral resources of the Republic of Belarus were identified, the role of mineral resources in the commodity structure of foreign trade of the Republic of Belarus was shown, ways to increase the level of security of the country's own organic and mineral resources were determined, including the improvement of the legal framework. The research was performed in 2012; the following methods were used in the paper: comparative analysis and synthesis, statistical analysis and monographic methods.

The Main Trends of Integration of Georgia into the World Economic System

At the present stage of development the process of integration of Georgia into the world economic system is getting deeper and deeper. That's why for the formation of the right economic policy of the country it is necessary to assess these processes correctly and analyze the further perspectives.On the basis of proven statistical methods – statistical observation, grouping and methods of analysis – there have been analyzed the data of foreign trade of Georgia from the Geographical point of view, characterized the dynamic of the export and import stream, the commodity structure of foreign trade of Georgia on the basis of which there have been revealed the positive and negative sides of the current changes in this field.There have also been discussed the problems of indexes of foreign trade in Georgia. In order to calculate the main characteristics of foreign trade there have been used the stochastic models of the time series. On the basis of models selected as a result of testing the classical methods of regressive analysis there have been done the forecast calculations and on basis of the received results the corresponding conclusions have been reached.

Analýza konkurenceschopnosti českého agrárního zahraničního obchodu v rámci světového agrárního trhu a v rámci agrárního trhu zemí EU27

This paper analyses the commodity structure of Czech (CR) agrarian trade in relation to the EU countries. An emphasis is put on comparative advantages of particular aggregations from the view-point of their application on the EU internal market. This analysis is based on an evaluation of comparative advantages by means of a modified Balassa index. It is studied in two stages, for the internal EU market and the world market. The analysis results are then shown in a graph. Subsequently, the authors implement an idea arising from a BCG matrix on the results of the graphic presentation. The aim is to identify those aggregations (SITC, rev. 3) which are or have a potential to be a pillar of agri-business (ie, the “cash cows” and “stars”), and vice versa to show the aggregation which are non-prospective in the long term or problematic (ie, the “dogs” and “problem children”). As start are identified as those aggregations which are characterised by the highest growth rate of comparative advantage value. From the analysis results, changes are apparent if we compare the CR trade commodity structure in relation to the EU countries. Findings also concern the development of comparative advantages and following CR specialisation on trade with certain aggregations.

The saving rate and the upgrade of the trade commodity structure in developing countries: A dynamic H–O model under an oligopolistic market structure

This paper constructs an oligopolistic dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin (H–O) model of a small open economy to analyze the relationship between the saving rate and the upgrade of the trade commodity structure. The analysis shows that the saving rate determines the trade commodity structure of a country in the long-run equilibrium. Furthermore, a developing country with a low capital–labor ratio in the initial state will change from exporting labor-intensive goods in the initial state to exporting capital-intensive goods in the long-run equilibrium if it has a higher saving rate, and this upgrade of trade commodity structure has a social welfare effect under an oligopolistic market structure. The effect of trade policy on the upgrade of the trade commodity structure is uncertain in our model; therefore, a high saving rate is the irreplaceable driving force for trade commodity structure upgrades in developing countries.

The competitiveness of Czech agrarian trade within the context of the global crisis

World trade underwent a significant shock within the recent years, which caused a decline in the world economy primarily in the year 2009. Within the following years (2010 and 2011), the high rate of growth from the years preceding the crisis could not be restored. The crisis had an impact on all segments of the merchandise trade, whereby the trade in agricultural and food products was affected the least by the crisis. In the case of the Czech Republic, the crisis of the global and national economy was reflected in the case of agricultural trade primarily by the way of a decline in the rate of the growth of export, which was very high in the period prior to the crisis. As far as the territorial structure and commodity structure of agricultural trade is concerned, their development in the years 2008–2011 was not affected in any largely significant manner. In relation to the main objective of this article, which was to identify the effects of the crisis on the competitiveness of Czech agricultural trade, it may be stated that the crisis itself did not worsen the competitiveness of agricultural trade in any significant manner.  

Development of agricultural trade and competitiveness of the commodity structures of individual countries of the Visegrad Group

The paper analyzes the development of the value, commodity and territorial structure and competitiveness of agricultural trade of the countries of the Visegrad Group in 1993–2008. Over the years, there has been a sharp increase not only to the volume, but also to the value of the traded agricultural products. The territorial structure of both exports and imports has narrowed to a decisive extent, primarily to the trade with the countries of the EU27. The commodity structure of agricultural trade has adapted very strongly both to the world and especially to the European market and it has furthermore reacted to the changes in the structure of the individual national markets. In the course of the years, the commodity structure has profiled so that there has been a limitation of aggregation with a strong comparative advantage on the market of the EU countries in relation to the aggregations that did not held this advantage. The analysis that has been performed indicates that the process of the accession to the EU has been reflected positively in the results of agricultural trade especially in the case of Poland. In the case of the Czech Republic and Slovakia, the entry into the EU likewise has not led to a worsening of the results in the area of agricultural trade. Only in the case of Hungary, one does find serious structural problems after the entry into the EU in the case of agricultural trade. It can be assumed that these problems can be attributed for the most part to the Hungary’s current economic problems.    

U.S. Vertical and Horizontal Intra-Industry Trade Patterns with the Middle East

The main objective of this paper is to examine the extent of the U.S. vertical and horizontal intra-industry trade patterns with the countries in the Middle Eastern region. To deepen our understanding of the development of trade and investment relations between the U.S. and the Middle Eastern countries, we consider both the commodity structure of trade as well as the structure of investment. Based on the hypothesis that intra-industry trade is closely related to offshore production by multinational enterprises, then a model have been develop to capture the main determinants of vertical and horizontal intra-industry trade that explicitly includes the role of the U.S. foreign investment in the region. The model is tested empirically using detailed trade and investment data. The findings of the study indicated that foreign investment plays a significant role in the increase in intra-industry trade in recent years.

U.S. Vertical and Horizontal Intra-Industry Trade Patterns with the Middle East

The main objective of this paper is to examine the extent of the U.S. vertical and horizontal intra-industry trade patterns with the countries in the Middle Eastern region. To deepen our understanding of the development of trade and investment relations between the U.S. and the Middle Eastern countries, we consider both the commodity structure of trade as well as the structure of investment. Based on the hypothesis that intra-industry trade is closely related to offshore production by multinational enterprises, then a model have been develop to capture the main determinants of vertical and horizontal intra-industry trade that explicitly includes the role of the U.S. foreign investment in the region. The model is tested empirically using detailed trade and investment data. The findings of the study indicated that foreign investment plays a significant role in the increase in intra-industry trade in recent years.

Competitiveness of agrarian trade of EU-15 countries in comparison with new EU member states

The paper analyses the commodity structure of agrarian trade of the EU countries. The comparative advantages of particular aggregations are accentuated from the view-point of their use on the EU internal market, and on the world market. The analysis is based on an evaluation of comparative advantages by means of a modified Ballas index. It is viewed on two levels, for the EU internal market and the world market. The results of the analysis are shown in a chart. Subsequently, the authors implement an idea arising from a BCG (Boston Consulting Group) matrix on the results of a graphical representation. The aim is to point out mainly those aggregations (SITC, rev. 3) which are, or have a potential to be, a pillar of agri-business, and vice versa to show the aggregations which are non-prospective in the long term, or problematic. The analysis is performed on two levels to utilise differences in the commodity structure of agrarian trade in both the cases of the old (EU-15) and the new EU member states (EU-12) (the member states which enlarged the EU in 2004 and 2007). From the results of the analysis, the significant changes are apparent if we compare commodity structures of trade of the countries of the EU-15 and EU-12.

Konkurencyjność eksportu krajów Unii Europejskiej

Geopolitical and economic changes in European Union modify import/export directions as well as commodity structure of foreign trade. Due to the fact, the competitiveness evaluation of EU-country economics in international trade turnovers can be interesting. The aim of the article is to analyze the export attractiveness of EU-countries using Revealed Comparative Advantage Index (RCA). A research attempt was made, how the export competitiveness reflects in an export specializing level of countries by Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). Calculations were based on reports' data of the International Labour Organisation via data base of the British Company Euromonitor: Global Market Information Database (GMID).

Cross-border Trade and Investment among Emerging Economies

Over the last quarter century or so, the volume of world trade grew at an average rate of 6 per cent. This increase in trade has not been homogenous among regions. Asia has been engaged in a major and admirable transformation. Latin America has pursued integration efforts for long, but with poorer results, and together with Africa it continues to rely on its resource base for growth in trade. The structure of trade in emerging market economies is analysed by examining the geographic and commodity structure of trade as well as trade integration efforts. Increases in trade can be attributed to several reasons: increased formal integration, better use of comparative advantage in relation to the advanced economies, and more complementarily among developing countries. The integration of trade in Asia is attributed largely to market forces but less so in other areas, particularly Latin America. The article also reviews the rise in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), particularly the role of emerging countries as destinations and origins of capital flows. The flows to Asia and Latin America are equivalent to almost one-fourth of the total FDI. Within the total flows, there is a growing role of investments originating in and directed to emerging economies (EEs), particularly within Asia. FDI flows from emerging markets (EMs) are strong in mining, but the areas of investment are being diversified at a rapid pace.

Polish foreign trade between 1990 and 2007

The political and economic changes of the 1990s were followed by major transformations in the structure and volume of Polish foreign trade. Those changes were observed both in geographical and commodity structure of Polish foreign trade, which provides evidence supporting the general thesis that foreign trade is a reflection of the economy.