Total Export Value Research Articles

Competitiveness Analysis and Factors Affecting Indonesian Cinnamon Exports

Cinnamon is one of the plantation spice commodities that contributes to the Indonesian economy. Indonesia is the largest exporter country in the world regarding the total export volume of cinnamon, but regarding the total value of exports, Indonesia comes in second after Sri Lanka. This study aims to analyze the comparative competitiveness of Indonesian cinnamon among major competitors in the United States’ market and to analyze the factors that influence the competitiveness of Indonesian cinnamon exports in the United States. The data used in this study comprise secondary data from 2007 to 2021 obtained from various data sources. The revealed comparative advantage method was used in a comparative competitiveness analysis. Moreover, the factors that affect the competitiveness of Indonesian cinnamon exports in the United States were analyzed using the ordinary least squares method. The results of the analysis show that Indonesian cinnamon is competitive in the United States’ market, but Sri Lanka’s cinnamon exports have stronger competitiveness than Indonesia’s in the United States’ market. The results of the ordinary least squares method show that the exchange rate of the IDR (rupiah) against the USD, the volume of Indonesian cinnamon exports, the GDP per capita of the USA and the value of cinnamon exports to the USA have a significant effect on the competitiveness of Indonesian cinnamon exports to the United States.

Impact of the coronavirus pandemic on financial returns of smallholder coffee plantations in Lao PDR.

Laos is among the top twenty coffee producing country in the world-producing about 39,000 tonnes per year-and most of its production is currently exported to over 26 countries, contributing about 1.1% of the total export value or US$64.3 million in 2019 to Laos' national economy. COVID-19 restrictions on trade and movement of people have largely impacted on coffee markets and production. As a strategic crop in Laos, it is supported by a range of policies and programs to generate greater benefits to both independent smallholder farmers and those involved in cooperatives, including support for agroforestry production models involving coffee and tree crops. However, studies of the profitability of different coffee agroforestry models are limited. This study compares financial returns from four most popular coffee agroforestry models in two coffee production provinces of Laos, before and during COVID-19 pandemic. The data were gathered from 20 farmers, five coffee traders and an integrated coffee processing company. These data were then triangulated with, and supplemented by, interviews with coffee exporters (n = 3) and key informants (n = 4). Financial indicators suggest that all four agroforestry models were profitable before COVID, but profits for cooperative growers were higher than for smallholders due to higher crop productivity and lower costs. Despite higher prices due to COVID restrictions, other factors reduced profitability of all four models and one smallholder model became unprofitable. The reasons for such differences and related policy implications are discussed.

Implications Of The Glasgow Agreement (Cop26) Phasing-Down Of Unabated Coal Power On Indonesia's Trade Balance

ABSTRACT At the 26th annual United Nations climate change conference (COP26) in Glasgow, Scotland, 197 countries succeeded in reaching an agreement to address the “Phase-down of Unabated Coal Power”, i.e. the gradual reduction of coal-fired power generation and to ends fossil fuel subsidies that are not in efficient. Its going with the policy of Indonesia Government, in the General Draft of National Energy (RUEN), they will limit coal production up to 400 million tons per year and the exports will be reduced gradually from year to year and will be stopped on 2046. In another hand, China and India's dependence on coal energy for power generation and industry is still very high. Both countries demanding will affect Indonesia's trade balance considering the proportion of Indonesia's coal exports is 71% compared to domestic consumption. To determine this effect, this study uses the Autoregression Vector (VAR) model with annual data from 2000 to 2021. The test results show that Indonesia's coal exports have an effect on the trade balance by 13.17% in terms of the total export value. International coal price will have a positive impact on the Indonesia’s trade balance by 17.91%. However, the price of coal is very influential on the volume of Indonesia’s coal export. Momentum of Phase-down Coal is a golden opportunity to maximize economic benefits while preparing renewable energy as a substitute for coal.

Energy Logistic Regression and Survival Model: Case Study of Russian Exports.

The importance of environmental sustainability is becoming more and more obvious, so the rationale behind long-term usage of solely non-renewable energy sources appeared questionable. This study aims to identify, using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and logistic regressions, the main determinants that affect the duration of Russian non-renewable energy exports to different regions of the world. Data were retrieved from the databanks of the World Development Indicators (WDI), World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS), and the French Centre for Prospective studies and International Information (CEPII). The obtained results point to the fact that approximately 52% of energy products survive beyond their first year of trading, nearly 38% survive beyond the second year, and almost 18% survive to the twelfth year. The survival of Russian non-renewable energy exports differs depending on the region, and the affecting factors are of different importance. The duration of Russian non-renewable energy exports is significantly linked to Russia's GDP, Total export, and Initial export values. A decline in Russia's GDP by 1% is associated with an increasing probability of a spell ending by 2.9% on average, in turn growing Total export and Initial export values positively linked with the duration of non-renewable energy exports from Russia. These findings may have practical relevance for strategic actions aimed at approaching both energy security and environmental sustainability.

FORECASTING OF INDONESIA'S POST-COVID-19 EXPORT VALUE USING SARIMA

The Covid-19 pandemic that entered Indonesia in early 2020 has more or less had an impact on Indonesia's economic growth. One of the important factors that are indicators of the ups and downs of the economy, especially in Indonesia, is export activities. The Covid-19 pandemic has had quite an impact on the total value of Indonesia's exports, especially from 2020 to 2021. The fluctuation in the export value has made researchers interested in forecasting the total export value, especially after the Covid-19 pandemic. Forecasting of the total value of exports can certainly be used as a reference for the government to determine the direction of policies toward export activities to increase Indonesia's economic growth. Export values usually have seasonal patterns. One of the time series analyses that can be applied to data on total export values is the SARIMA model. Especially after Covid-19, no related studies have been found that use the SARIMA model in predicting the total value of exports in Indonesia. Using reference data on the total export value of Indonesia from January 2019 to March 2022, the best model was obtained and met the assumptions of residual normality and residual freedom, namely the ARIMA model (0,1,1)(0,0,1)12 without an intercept with an AICc value of 675.5562. Forecasting the total export value from April 2022 to March 2023 using this model indicates that the export value will increase slowly but decrease in September 2022 and January 2023.

DETERMINANTS OF EXPORT VALUE OF WEST JAVA PROVINCE: AN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (ECM) APPROACH

West Java is a province with the largest contribution to national export value. In 2018, the export contribution in West Java reached 16.89% of the total national export value. However, in recent years, West Java's trade balance shows that the rate of increase in imports is relatively high, especially for industrial needs. It indicates that West Java has a high dependence on imports, and if it is not controlled, it can cause a deficit in the trade balance. Therefore, the government's role is needed to increase export value to offset the import value increase. This study aims to determine the effect of KITE facilities, exchange rate, interest rate, and Human Development Index (HDI) on the export value of West Java. This research uses the quantitative method based on secondary data from monthly time series for 2016-2019. Analysis of research data using the Error Correction Model (ECM). Research result indicates that only the interest rate negatively and significantly affects West Java's export value. Meanwhile, the KITE facility, exchange rate, and the HDI partially do not affect the export value of West Java. However, the KITE facility, exchange rate, interest rate, and HDI simultaneously affect the export value of West Java.

Study on the Development Strategy of Cross-border E-commerce Platforms-A Comparative Analysis of TikTok and Amazon

In 2019, the total value of China's cross-border e-commerce retail imports and exports reached 180 billion yuan, an increase of 38.3% year-on-year, and China's imports and exports closed through the customs cross-border e-commerce management platform increased by 26.2% in the first half of 2020. The surging cross-border e-commerce imports and exports mainly stem from the transformation of the consumption pattern in major markets such as Europe and America and the landing of a series of policies conducive to the development of cross-border e-commerce.Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus epidemic, China's real economy has been impacted. Cross-border e-commerce and live commerce have given a boost to regional economic development and return to work and production. In the post-epidemic era, cross-border e-commerce has encountered many difficulties as well as many opportunities. This paper mainly aims to find out the strategic measures through the comparative analysis of TikTok cross-border e-commerce and Amazon's traditional e-commerce.

Analysis of The Impact between Fluctuations in the Exchange Rate of RMB against The U.S. Dollar and China's Export Business

In this project, when the exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar rises in the trade between China and the United States, due to the decline in the income of export goods, the decline in total export value will lead to a decrease in the number of dollars exchanged by China, and on the contrary, the income from imports will increase, so Imports also increase, causing more dollars to be spent. In this way, after a certain period, the total amount of U.S. dollars held by China will decrease, which will lead to an increase in China's demand for U.S. dollars, which will lead to the appreciation of the U.S. dollar, that is, the exchange rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar will decline.

ВИМІРЮВАННЯ УЧАСТІ КРАЇН У ГЛОБАЛЬНИХ ЛАНЦЮГАХ СТВОРЕННЯ ВАРТОСТІ

The article is devoted to the generalization and systematization of the main theoretical approaches and practical methods of measuring the participation of countries or industries in global value chains (GVC). The work provides the definition and main content of global value chains. It has been noted that the growing role of global value chains and their importance not only changes the approach to the ways of generating income and ensuring economic growth, but also gives an awareness that the most important driver of economic growth of an industry or country is direct participation in global value chains. Significant arguments have been presented in favor of the participation of countries in global value chains. Summarizing the existing methods of calculating the degree of a country’s participation in global value chains, the authors have singled out four index based methods: Index of Vertical Specialization, Export complexity index, GVC participation index and GVC position index. Index of Vertical Specialization assumes using data on the country’s expenditure-output for the distribution of the value of imported foreign goods contained in export products of a certain industry in this country, on the total export value of the industry. Export complexity index based on export volume and income of a country that participates in global value chains, as well as the export of goods of a specific country and the industry index of goods to measure the national product index. GVC participation index is measured in terms of the value of goods and services added as a result of trade. GVC position index shows the “status” of a certain industry in a country: the higher the value, the higher the “status” of a certain industry in the country’s global value chain, and vice versa. The main formulas for calculating indices, advantages and disadvantages of their use have been presented. Thus, it has been proven that the GVC participation index, which is based on the Index of Vertical Specialization, reflects the dynamics of the integration of countries in the GVC and allows for inter-country and inter-industry comparative analysis, but does not provide an opportunity to assess the benefits received from participation in the GVC. The use of the GVC Status Index allows to solve this task both at the country and at the sectoral level. It has been proposed to use GVC participation index and GVC position index as a basis for analyzing Ukraine’s participation in global value chains. This will allow not only to reveal the degree of Ukraine’s participation in the modern international division of labor but also, based on the conclusions of such an analysis, to develop recommendations for improving the place of Ukraine in the GVC and change the position of Ukraine from a raw material supplier country to a raw material processing country.

Determinant Analysis Of Fresh Demand For Exported Tuna At Bungus Ocean Fishing Port (PPS) Padang City Postpandemic Covid-19 Period

The Covid-19 pandemic is claimed to be the main cause of the decline in world trade including trade in fishery products, where the total export value of world fishery products fell by 7% compared to 2019, which was the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. Therefore, the determinants of demand for fresh tuna exports at PPS Bungus, Padang City, in the post-pandemic Covid-19 period need to be investigated. to maintain and increase the quantity of fresh tuna exports. Based on the description above, the purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of domestic price factors, Japan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), shrimp prices, and the exchange rate on demand for fresh export tuna exports at the Bungus Ocean Fishery Port (PPPS). Padang city Post-pandemic Covid-19 period. To find out how much influence the independent variables and dependent variables have in this study, the method used is multiple regression analysis. The independent variables are tuna prices (X1), Japan's GDP per capita (X2), shrimp prices (X3), exchange rates (X4), and the dependent variable is the export quantity of fresh tuna (Y). Based on the results of the study, it was concluded that the price of tuna, shrimp price and exchange rate had a positive effect on the quantity of fresh tuna exports while Japan's GDP per capita had no effect on the quantity of fresh tuna exports at the Samudera Bungus Fishery Port, Padang City

EXPORTS OF UKRAINIAN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS TO THE EUROPEAN UNION: ANALYTICAL ASSESSMENT, PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS

The purpose of the work is to study the issue of domestic exports of agricultural products to the European Union (EU). Methodology. General scientific economic and mathematical methods as analysis, synthesis, abstraction, concretization and special methods as comparison, tabular were used. Results. It is noted that an important step in terms of deepening trade relations between Ukraine and the EU was the conclusion of the Association Agreement and the establishment of a free trade area in the framework of this Agreement. For Ukraine, this is both one of the greatest achievements (in terms of shaping the worldview and social development) and a challenge (in terms of ensuring economic growth of the country, search for internal sources and incentives). It is noted that European guidelines provide the agricultural sector with an effective direction of development and reveal modern opportunities for its recovery, create additional preferences in the agri-food market. It is investigated that since the beginning of 2014 there have been dramatic changes in the geographical structure of domestic exports. Before that, about a quarter of goods were sent to the EU countries, about a third – to the markets of the CIS countries, the rest – to other countries. During 2014-2020, this distribution changed towards a significant decrease in the share of the CIS countries and a gradual increase in the share of the EU and other countries of the world. The article provides an analytical assessment of the geographical structure of Ukraine's merchandise exports by three main blocks of countries – the EU, the CIS and the rest of the world. The role and importance of the free trade area between Ukraine and the EU, which is a powerful milestone in bilateral trade relations and opens new economic opportunities for both the EU and Ukraine, is determined. The main trading partners of Ukraine in the export of goods are characterized. The geographical structure of exports with the EU countries is investigated and it is noted that Ukraine supplies goods to almost all EU countries. The total value of exports in 2020 decreased by 1552103 thousand US dollars compared to 2018. The largest share of exports falls on Poland, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain. The commodity structure of agricultural exports with the EU countries during 2018-2020 was studied, a significant share of agricultural products was noted, which ranges from 34%. Practical implications. The factors that influenced the formation of exports in 2020 are identified. The problems that affect the development of exports and the prospects for its increase are identified.

TREND SUBSEKTOR KEHUTANAN TERHADAP PDRB, KESEMPATAN KERJA DAN EKSPOR PULANG PISAU PROVINSI KALIMANTAN TENGAH

This study is to analyze the magnitude of forestry subsector trends on the economy,especially on Gross Regional Domestic Revenue, Job Opportunities and Pulang PisauTotal Value. This study uses secondary data and is analyzed by Straight Line Equations.Research results obtained: 1. The contribution of the forestry sub-sector to the PulangPisau Regency economy began to decline in 2010-2018. Where the highest contributionwas in 2010 which was 2.27% with a value of Rp 43,927.30 while the lowest contributionvalue was in 2018 which was 1,44% with a value of Rp 70.494,50 with an averagegrowth of -5.45%. 2. The participation rate of Pulang Pisau Regency's employmentopportunities from 2010-2018 tends to decrease. For the highest contribution, there were73,12% in 2010, while the lowest contribution was in 2017 with a value of 46% with anaverage growth of 4,78%. 3. The Total Value of Forestry Subsector Exports in 2015-2019 increased from year to year from the analysis of the total value of total forestryexports in 2015-2019, the highest value was in 2018, namely USD 6,473,834.63 whilethe lowest was in 2015, which was USD 58,679 60Keywords: Gross Regional Domestic Revenue, Labor, Total Export Value

Genuine performance of China's forest products trade: An evaluation from the perspective of global value chains

This study evaluates the trade performance of China's forest products industry by decomposing its total export value added using the latest world input-output table for the period of 2000–2014 and a novel value-added accounting method. This method enables us to identify and isolate the trade of intermediate products and the double counting embedded in the existing statistics. Our results show that while the domestic value added accounted for more than 80% of the industry's total export value added, statistical deviations caused by including foreign value added and double counting could constitute as much as 15% of the total export value added. In addition, we find that China has narrowed its gap with the U.S. in terms of the bilateral export value added, while its capacity of value-added trade was superior to that of many developing economies. China can enhance its trade performance by targeting particular markets and adjusting its participation and position in the global value chains.

Perdagangan Internasional Indonesia: Sebuah Komparasi di Masa Pandemi COVID-19

COVID-19 pandemic that has attacked almost all countries in the world since the end of 2019 until now certainly has an impact on international trade. This impact is certainly also felt by Indonesia as a open market operation country. Purpose of this study is to see whether the COVID-19 pandemic affects international trade, both export and import activities with oil and gas and non-oil and gas types. The data used is the total value of exports and imports, oil and gas, and non-oil and gas from 2019.8 to 2020.9 or nineteen months before the COVID-19 pandemic and nineteen months during the COVID-19 pandemic obtained from the Monthly Trade report published by the Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia. This study uses data analysis techniques, namely Paired Sample T Test and Mann-Whitney U Test. The results showed that there was no difference in the value of nonoil and gas imports before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, while total exports, oil and gas exports, non-oil exports, total imports, and imports of oil and gas experienced significant changes or differences in value in the period before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Indonesian economy during this crisis turned out to be stronger on the import side because the value of non-oil and gas imports didn’t show a significant difference both before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Economic Scheduling Problem of Nanomaterial Import and Export Trade Based on Redundant Data Compression Algorithm and Its Parameter Adjustment Method

In the context of today’s supply-side structural reform, the research on the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth has received extensive attention from researchers. Since China’s economic reform and opening up in the late 1970s, China’s economy has experienced a relatively long period of rapid growth. From 1978 to the end of 2008, China’s economy grew at an average annual rate of about 10%, and its GDP grew from US$9.75 billion in 1978 to US$1,430.69 billion in 2008. The progress is amazing, the total import and export of goods increased from 20.64 billion US dollars in 1978 to 25.6326 billion US dollars in 2008, and the world ranking rose from 32nd in 1978 to 3rd in 2008, second only to the United States and Germany. The analysis of the test results presented in this paper shows that, from 1995 to 2014, China’s average annual exports accounted for 23.72% of GDP. Since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, China’s share of export trade has increased significantly. In 2004, the total value of exports reached 4910.33 billion yuan, equivalent to more than 29% of China’s GDP, and continued to rise in the following years. China’s total exports as a share of GDP declined between 2009 and 2014 but remained above 20% in both cases.

Ntb’s Potential as a Sorghum Producer for Alternative Food and Export Commodities

The area of sorghum planted in NTB Province is currently around 650 ha, with details of Bima Regency covering 250 ha, Bima City covering 250 ha, Sumbawa Regency covering 150 ha and West Sumbawa Regency 10 Ha (Kementan RI, 2021). Participation of farmers in sorghum farming, farmers tend to cultivate without tillage and intensive care. The level of technology adoption tends to be low, and Government support for sorghum cultivation is also standard. The Regional Government focuses on rice and corn cultivation through the Central Government program. In the end, low public perception of sorghum cultivation was formed. The cultivation of Sorghum in NTB aims to improve farmers' welfare by cultivating alternative food crops with high economic value, becoming one of the alternative food crops and also a leading export commodity. The method used in this study is through a literature study of several scientific articles, national and international journals and other sources, which were analyzed descriptively. Based on the results of this literature review, the development of Sorghum in NTB with a relatively wide dry land condition can potentially make NTB one of the producers of sorghum with export quality. This condition is supported by the Astra Prosperous Village Program, which has exported several processed sorghum products to various countries. Several countries, such as Timor Leste and Malaysia with a total export value of hundreds of millions of rupiah. The limited use of land for sorghum development is an obstacle and a challenge for sorghum productivity in NTB.

A Study on the Current Situation and Problems of Payment Methods in the International Trade between Korea and China

Purpose This study provides practically useful guidelines for Korean companies by analyzing the status of the payment methods of Korea and China, which is increasingly important in accordance with the recent increase in trade volume, discovering problems, and suggesting solutions. Design/Methodology/Approach This study included a comprehensive review of prior domestic and foreign literature as well as e-mail consultations with experts in the payment field around the world. Findings Findings revealed that as for the payment methods of Korea’s exports in 2021, the remittance method accounted for 70.3%, letter of credit method was 7.6%, collection method was 8.3%, and other methods were 13.8%. The remittance method accounts for 70% of the total export value, followed by the collection method and L/C method. Since there are no official statistics on payment methods in China, it is impossible to grasp the status of China’s recent payment methods. Research implications This paper presented the status and problems of payment methods of Korea and China. Korea needs to revise the statistics of payment methods, and China needs to perform official statistical work on payment methods.

How productivity and credit constraints affect exports differently? Firm-level evidence from China

This paper aims to differentiate between the impacts of a firm’s productivity and credit constraints on its export behavior. Based on the different channels through which these two factors influence firm exports, we propose three main hypotheses. First, credit constraints exert a larger impact on export extensive margin than on export intensive margin. Specifically, credit constraints influence the number of export destinations more than the average export value for each destination. Second, productivity has a stronger effect on intensive margin, relative to its effect on extensive margin. That is, productivity exerts greater influence on the average export value than on the number of export destination countries. Third, in aggregate, productivity plays a more important role in a firm’s total export value, compared with credit constraints. We verify the above hypotheses using the firm-level export data in China from 2000 to 2007.

New Asean Member Countries’ Exports to Japan: An Assessment of the New Goods Margin

Growth in exports along extensive margins has been observed during periods of trade liberalization. A rise in new goods margins is important for developing countries as this is a sign of increasing productivity of local firms and a move from overdependence on a small basket of goods. Adapting the methodology of Kehoe and Rul. This study evaluates the changes in the share of total value of the least traded export goods from new ASEAN member countries to Japan before and after the ratification of the ASEAN-Japan FTA. For each of the four countries, a baseline of HS lines of products comprising near 10% of total export value in 2009 was created from the BACI dataset. The analyses show that by 2018 the share of least traded goods to Japan have risen to almost 69% of total export value for Cambodia, 57% for Myanmar and 55% for Laos. For Vietnam, the rise is a modest 29%.

Industrial Systems Product Influencing the Value of Thailand’s Border Trade

This study attempted to identify products in the industrial systems that affect total value, export value and import value of Thailand’s border trade. The variables for analyzing included the export value of rubber, computer, equipment and components, automobile, automotive parts and components, diesel fuel and the import value of natural gas, magnetic tape and magnetic disk for computer, industrial machinery and components, storage media from 2011 to 2018. The multiple regression analysis was tested with the significant level of 0.05. The results revealed that (1) the export value of computer, equipment and components and the import value of industrial machinery and components had an influence on the total value of Thailand’s border trade, (2) the export value of computer, equipment and components had an influence on the export value of Thailand’s border trade, and (3) the import value of industrial machinery and components had an influence on the import value of Thailand’s border trade. The study showed how those products in the industry had an impact upon border trade value of Thailand. As Thailand has production potential to respond to neighboring market needs, meanwhile it still relies on imported product for national industrial development. This study will be useful for the Thai government and entrepreneurs to implement the results for projects and strategies for border trade.