Total Trading Volume Research Articles

CAN SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION BE AN ALTERNATIVE TO THE EUROPEAN UNION FOR TURKEY? ANALYSIS WITH PANEL GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH

Son dönemlerde Avrupa Birliği ve Şanghay İşbirliği Örgütü çok fazla gündeme gelmiş ve özellikle Türkiye açısından örgütlerin birbirlerinin alternatifi olup olamayacağı tartışma konusu olmuştur. Bu çalışma ile Türkiye’nin her iki örgütle olan dış ticaret hacmi panel çekim modeli kullanılarak test edilmiş ve birbirlerinin alternatifi olup olamayacağı sınanmıştır. Yapılan analiz 2003-2019 dönemlerini kapsamaktadır. Bağımlı değişken olarak Türkiye’nin her iki örgütle gerçekleştirdiği ihracat ve ithalat toplamından oluşan dış ticaret hacmi kullanılmıştır. Bağımsız değişken olarak ise ülkelerin ekonomik büyüklüklerini temsilen gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla rakamları, ülkelerin birbirleriyle olan uzaklıklarını temsilen mesafe değişkeni ve 2008 ekonomik krizin etkilerini görebilmek için kukla değişken kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, ülkelerin ekonomik büyüklüklerinin dış ticareti pozitif, mesafe ile ekonomik kriz kukla değişkenlerinin ise dış ticareti negatif yönde etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca, Avrupa Birliği ülkelerinin gelirlerindeki artışın Türkiye’nin toplam dış ticaret hacmi üzerine olan etkisinin daha büyük olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak Türkiye için, Şanghay İşbirliği Örgütünün Avrupa Birliğinin alternatifi olamayacağına karar verilmiştir

Austrian-Hungarian Diplomatic Relations: 2017-2021

Since Sebastian Kurz was elected Chancellor in 2017, Austrian internal politics has changed significantly, and there is a visible rapprochement with several countries in the region, including Hungary. There is a consensus between Hungary and Austria on many issues, including the defense of Christian culture, the European way of life, and the protection of society. Both countries are urging the establishment of a common European military force and the strengthening of border guards. Austria is Hungary's second most important trading partner in terms of total trade volume, and Austria is one of the largest investors in Hungary today. Considering these points, it is worth examining how the system of diplomatic relations between the two countries has developed in recent years.

THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE AND TRADING VOLUME DURING MERS AND COVID-19 ON THE INDONESIA AND MALAYSIA STOCK EXCHANGE

We investigate the differences of financial performance and stock trading volume during the MERS and COVID-19 periods on the Indonesia and Malaysia Stock Exchanges. We used Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test. Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test model is selected because we compared Indonesia and Malaysia to conduct a paired difference test of repeated measurements on a single sample to assess whether their population mean ranks differ. Our sample consist of 140 companies that getting from 713 companies listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange while Malaysia is composed of 345 companies from 597 listed company in Malaysia Stock Exchange. The results showed that MERS and COVID-19 have differences in total asset turnover (TATO) and stock trading volume on the Indonesia and Malaysia Stock Exchanges, while the Current Ratio as liquidity ratio and Debt to equity ratio as risk proxy have no differences on the Indonesia and Malaysia Stock Exchange. There is no difference in the operating Profit Margin as profitability ratio variable on the Indonesia Stock Exchange while there is a significant difference on the Malaysia Stock Exchange.

Global Trade Pattern of Traditional Chinese Medicines and China's Trade Position.

To depict the evolution of the global trade of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) products, this article analyzes the 2001–2020 trade data of TCM products in the World Bank and United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database to discern the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of global and China's trade patterns of TCM products from 2001 to 2020 and thereby assess the changes in the global trade of TCM products and in the positions of various countries or regions in the global trade of TCM products. Research findings are as follows: First, on the whole, the total trade volume of TCM products and the number of participating economies and trade connections are on the rise. Second, in terms of topological structure, with higher network density and rising transmission efficiency, the global trade network of TCM products has typical small-world and scale-free network characteristics and has begun to be controlled by a few countries. Judging from the co-opetition between major trading countries, there are more diversified sources of imports for major trading countries, and there is competition between supplying countries. Third, For China, the trade volume of TCM products between China and various countries worldwide has grown rapidly and exhibits a trend of continuous increase followed by decline. China has established extensive trade partnerships and its position in the global trade network of TCM products has been continuously improved. China's participation has contributed to a closer connection among trading entities, but its network heterogeneity remains to be further improved. From the perspective of trade interdependence, the number of countries or regions maintaining high interdependence with China has been gradually increasing, and most of them are European and American countries, Japan, and Southeast Asian countries. The number of countries or regions maintaining low interdependence with China has gradually decreased, and countries or regions that are completely one-way dependent on China are nonexistent.

Do economic crises cause trading in Bitcoin?

PurposeThe paper provides new evidence for Bitcoin’s safe-haven property by examining the relationship between currency price, return and Bitcoin trading volume.Design/methodology/approachA unique dataset from a person-to-person (p2p) exchange is used to investigate association between Bitcoin trading volume and currency prices. Currency returns are used to identify local economic crises, the 8 crisis affected currencies are Venezuela Bolivar (VES), Iranian Rial (IRR), Ukrainian Hryvnia (UAH), Argentine Peso (ARS), Egyptian Pound (EGP), Nigerian Naira (NGN), Turkish Lira (TRY) and Kazakhstani Tenge (KZT).FindingsThe paper demonstrates that local economic crises are positively associated with increased Bitcoin trading. There is a negative association between trading volume and currency value (and return), suggesting low currency price and currency depreciation are accompanied with increased Bitcoin trading. The results not only hold for the crisis affected currencies but also currencies of advanced economies. Granger causality test also reinforces the negative association results.Originality/valueThe finding indicates some forms of flight-to-safety have occurred during local market crises when capital flight from domestic markets to Bitcoin, strengthening Bitcoin’s hedging asset status. However, total global trading volume declines after the start of the COVID pandemic, suggesting that Bitcoin is still regarded as a speculative asset. Overall, the findings show that Bitcoin is a hedging asset to protect against local currency depreciation, but not a safe-haven asset for the global crisis.

Renminbi (RMB) Appreciation: Discussion and Analysis on China’s Trade Balance, Import and Export from 2005 to 2019

The modern mainstream in economic globalization and integration suggests that trade cooperation is being a trend that forges foreign trade generally contributes as a vital driving force to the national economic development. In particular, changes in the exchange rate due to either market forces or monetary policies have been viewed as a direct effect on a country’s trade balance, industrial development, and macroeconomic growth. Since China acceded to the World Trade Organization (WTO), its economic openness has been further enhanced, and the total foreign trade volume has multiplied. However, the Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate lately has received widespread attention. This paper examines and discusses the impact, if any, of exchange rate changes under currency appreciation on China’s trade balance from 2005 to 2019. For the selection of necessary variables related to trade balance, we use a set of independent variables including income, RMB exchange rate, and FDI to research the correlation between those variables by using the co-integration testing method and impulse response function. The empirical testing results suggest that RMB appreciation could affect China’s trade balance, though not significantly, and most likely reduce the trade surplus. The appreciation in RMB also creates a favorable environment for domestic enterprises to trade. Further, the Chinese government should take appropriate measures to respond to the impact of RMB appreciation on China’s exports.

Emergence and structure of decentralised trade networks around dark web marketplaces

Dark web marketplaces (DWMs) are online platforms that facilitate illicit trade among millions of users generating billions of dollars in annual revenue. Recently, two interview-based studies have suggested that DWMs may also promote the emergence of direct user-to-user (U2U) trading relationships. Here, we carefully investigate and quantify the scale of U2U trading around DWMs by analysing 31 million Bitcoin transactions among users of 40 DWMs between June 2011 and Jan 2021. We find that half of the DWM users trade through U2U pairs generating a total trading volume greater than DWMs themselves. We then show that hundreds of thousands of DWM users form stable trading pairs that are persistent over time. Users in such stable pairs turn out to be the ones with the largest trading volume on DWMs. Then, we show that new U2U pairs often form while both users are active on the same DWM, suggesting the marketplace may serve as a catalyst for new direct trading relationships. Finally, we reveal that stable U2U pairs tend to survive DWM closures and that they were not affected by COVID-19, indicating that their trading activity is resilient to external shocks. Our work unveils sophisticated patterns of trade emerging in the dark web and highlights the importance of investigating user behaviour beyond the immediate buyer-seller network on a single marketplace.

The Analysis for Determinants of Korea’s Agricultural Trade Using Gravity Models

Purpose This paper aimed to analyze the determinants of Korea’s agricultural trade based on a traditional gravity model. Design/Methodology/Approach To examine the determinants, this paper constructed a gravity model including the specified dependent variables of total trade volume, export and import volumes, and by dividing independent variables with linearized and multiplied relationships. After constructing the models, this paper adopted econometric procedures using panel analysis such as pooled OLS, fixed and random effects Findings As a result of panel regressions, there were slight differences between the linearized and multiplied independent variables. First, in Korea’s agricultural trade, the entire market size and economy of the country of trade with Korea played an important role. The economic situations of major agricultural trade countries with Korea were analyzed as an important factor. Second, the physical distance between trading destinations was the same as that of the previous studies, regardless of the differences in the models, and distance and Korea’s agricultural trade showed inversed relations. Finally, the effect of agricultural trade according to the regional trade agreement increased Korea’s agricultural trade, but the effects of FTAs on Korea’s agricultural exports were not large. Research Implications These results suggest that we need to carefully construct the gravity model with respect to simple combined or multiplied independent variables, and also to intensify FTA utilization for an increase in Korea’s agricultural exports.

Closing auctions: Nasdaq versus NYSE

Closing auction volume steadily increased over the last decade, and it reached a peak of about 10% of the total trading volume in 2019. We examine the price impact and resiliency of closing auctions, and we compare closing auction liquidity in Nasdaq and the NYSE. The NYSE offers more depth. In both exchanges, it takes about 3–5 days for the temporary component of the price impact to fully dissipate. Trading strategies that exploit this price impact and its reversals are significantly profitable.

Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth of Nepal: Is Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Nepal?

A voluminous study is available on tourism-growth nexus as tourism industry received considerable attention as a potential source of economic growth. This paper empirically examines the impact of tourism on economic growth of Nepal by using time series data of 1976-2020 and applying autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. Real GDP was used as proxy measure of economic growth, which was the outcome variable whereas the variable of interest was tourism receipts. Foreign aid, total volume of trade and ratio of government consumption expenditure to GDP were taken as control variables. The result of ARDL model shows that tourism has no significant impact on economic growth of Nepal in both short-run and long-run. However, total volume of trade has positive and significant effect on economic growth in short-run whereas foreign aid, total volume of trade and ratio of government consumption expenditure to GDP have positive and significant effect on economic growth in the long-run. In such context of tourism and growth relationship, tourism-led growth hypothesis is rejected for Nepal.

Research on China's Value-Added Export Trade to Countries along the " Belt and Road"

Since the "Belt and Road" initiative was put forward, the cooperation between China and countries along the route has deepened, the content and structure of trade have been enriched, and the total volume of trade has also expanded. Based on UNCTAD-Eora global Value Chain database, this paper summarizes the development of China's export value added (VA) to countries along the Belt and Road in terms of region and industry, and makes a comparative analysis of different countries and industries. It finds that China still has weak links with countries along the Belt and Road, and labor-intensive products are subject to competition. On this basis, suggestions are put forward to improve the trade structure so as to promote the value-added of China's export trade to countries along the "Belt and Road".

АНАЛИЗ РОЛИ ВТО В МЕЖДУНАРОДНОЙ ТОРГОВЛЕ РОССИИ И ОГРАНИЧЕНИЙ В 2011–2020 ГГ.

The paper deals with the analysis of the essential documents of the World Trade Organization (WTO), fiscal and financial requirements, and restrictions contained in them, which influence international trade. Based on the analysis, the authors made an effort to group the principles of institutional international trade relations, relevant tools, and mechanisms of their implementation, highlighting the exceptions. The paper analyzes Russian foreign economic activity indices for 2011–2020 in the context of the total volume of international trade, relative dynamics of indices, international partners (foreign countries); critically evaluates the statistical data on net export. The authors consider the application of WTO’s tools to support Russian export potential during the first year of the coronavirus pandemic spreading. The paper lists the countries and export goods, in respect of which the intentions to introduce restrictive measures were adjusted, and the states employed the heaviest restrictions on Russian commodities. The authors conclude that due to the trade liberalization, the developed and large-scale economies, ready for the radical tariff restrictions reduction, gain foremost; the restrictions adversely affect countries, which do not have production facilities; negative outcomes emerge for a country imposing restrictions when exporting raw materials. The reduction of import goods tariffs for the less developed countries causes the exclusion of native manufacturers from the country’s local market, the decline in manufacturing. The authors sum up the conclusions about the WTO’s role in international trade. WTO principles aim to develop trade relations between countries, but the participants should have relevant commercial intentions. Based on the analysis of statistical indicators, the authors specify the problems and prospects of Russian trade relations, including those involved in the change of countries-stakeholders. A local domestic market where competitiveness persists mainly due to customer intimacy becomes prevailing for primary sales.

DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPETITIVE STRATEGY FOR AN INTERNATIONAL ENTERPRISE

The article considers the most important theoretical and practical problems related to the existing opportunities for development, where there are options for calculations during the election of a competitive strategy that should ensure high competitiveness of trading systems. The use of break-even analysis allows a more objective distribution between these categories, if we focus on the absolute size of break-even points and indicators of financial strength. The article states that along with intellectual and innovative financial strength, there is a costly one based on old trade technologies. Expenditure financial strength can be defined as the difference between the overall financial strength of the trading system and the above parameters. As a result, a structure of financial strength of the system is formed, in which the share of innovative and intellectual developments should mainly determine the total volume of trade. Otherwise, we will see an evolutionary shift to routine, costly trading technologies, the financial strength of which will reduce the competitive attractiveness of trading systems. Such actions are based on differ-ences in the life cycles of goods sold, economic relations, the functioning of the enterprise itself. The life cycle of the product is shorter than the life cycles of economic relations, the existence of the enterprise. It is not the product itself that is the source of additional income received by the enterprise, but the specific relationship of the latter with the environment, which have inde-pendent value. Internal competition will be increasingly determined by the requirements of the global, which will be dominated by innovative and intellectual competitive advantages.

Economic analysis of the world export of educational services

The research looks at the export of educational services as one of the promising spheres for the development of international economic relations. The study focuses on the experience of developed supplier and recipient countries. The theoretical basis of the study is formed by the typology of ways to export services proposed in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. The importance of the issue under consideration is due, among other things, to the fact that, according to forecasts, the number of foreign students wishing to obtain higher education will increase to 150 million in 2025, and the volume of exports of higher education will reach $30 billion, which is 3 % of the total volume of trade in OECD services. Most prior research focuses on methodological aspects of education; however, the experience of foreign countries is presented in a limited scope. Using the example of the USA in the context of the management training program, it is shown that a fairly broad methodological system is used abroad, allowing specialists from all over the world to acquire the necessary skills and develop competencies. It is obvious that the pandemic has led to a sharp reduction in the number of foreign students in Germany, as in other exporting countries of educational services. Of particular interest is the EdTech market, which is attractive in terms of its size and growth rates. The key barriers to the global market of educational services are, among other things, increased competition, the presence of a larger number of exporters-providers of educational services, more active classes at mass open online courses, active use of mobile devices; the use of learning models that include personalized and blended learning methods; increasing the degree of confidentiality of data; active development of the institute of continuing education in conjunction with the active use of advanced training courses and vocational training. The research is expected to provide valuable information about the balance of powers on the global market of educational services and will serve as an information base for further scientific research in the field.

Exchange trade current state and development trends

The article is devoted to the investigation of the state and development trends of exchange trading at the current stage. The main aspects characterizing the stock and commodity stock markets in our country and the world have been analyzed. The authors emphasized the concentration of exchange trading in Ukraine on several licensed exchanges, which resulted in a significant increase in the regulated market. The main groups of goods that prevail on the commodity and stock markets of Ukraine are singled out. It was established that the predominant share of trading volume of financial instruments, which was carried out by operators of organized capital markets in Ukraine in 2021, fell on debt securities, and the total trading volume of shares was insignificant. Emphasis is placed on the determining influence of globalization processes on the exchange market development. It is noted that the financial market occupies a dominant place with a share of about 80% of the total exchange turnover in the total world stock exchange trade. Significant revitalization and development of electronic stock trading and constant improvement of stock trading technologies on an innovative basis have been noted. The paper provides an assessment of the current state of development of international exchange trading. An increase in market capitalization, a trend toward growth in the number of concluded contracts in general and for certain types of exchange contracts on commodity and stock exchanges have been noted. The main factors affecting the current state of stock trading development in the world have been systematized. They include market globalization, the development of the latest information technologies, the strengthening of the influence of global financial market participants, the diversification of existing and the emergence of new financial instruments, the unification of regulations for the stock markets, regional structural changes in the activity of the world stock market with increased concentration of stock trading in the Asia-Pacific region.

АНАЛІЗ РИНКІВ КАПІТАЛУ ТА ОРГАНІЗОВАНИХ ТОВАРНИХ РИНКІВ

The article highlights the organizational aspects of capital markets and organized commodity markets in Ukraine, as a result of the reform of the domestic stock exchange regulation mechanism. It is noted that capital markets and organized commodity markets belong to the exchange segment in the market economy. Without these markets, it is not possible to accumulate and transfer free capital and price risks. In Ukraine, the main legislative and legal principles of the capital markets and organized commodity markets functioning are currently regulated by the Law of Ukraine "On Capital Markets and Organized Commodity Markets". It was noted that now organized markets in Ukraine can function in the following forms: regulated markets (stock, derivative contracts, money); BTM (stock, derivative contracts); OTM (bonds and derivative contracts. The theoretical essence of organized markets is highlighted, as well as the classification of their varieties is given. Organized trade performs important functions for maintaining the stability of the economic system. Organized capital markets and commodity markets are an important place of accumulation and transfer of investment resources at the domestic and international levels. The current state of international trade on organized capital markets and organized commodity markets by types of derivative contracts is analyzed. It was established that the аssessment of the dynamics of international exchange trading in derivative contracts in 2021 had a cardinal increase of 33.8%. The main trends of domestic trade on organized capital markets have been established. In 2021 there was an increase in trading volumes on organized capital markets by 34.9% compared to 2020. The total trading volume amounted to UAH 452 billion. Summing up, the main trends in the international exchange market of derivative contracts are established and the main directions of the development of modern exchange trading in commodity and financial derivative contracts in the conditions of increasing level of globalization influence are highlighted.

An Analysis of the Influencing Factors in the Establishment of the Overseas Agricultural Cooperation Zones under the Belt and Road Initiative Based on Logit Model

A total of 57 overseas agricultural cooperation zones have been selected from 68 countries along the Belt and Road and extended areas from 2006 to 2018 as samples, and the corresponding indexes of bilateral trade in agricultural products, agricultural resource endowments, labor resources, infrastructure, and economic freedom have been chosen for parameter estimation based on the maximum likelihood method under the Logit model for an empirical analysis of the main influencing factors in the establishment of the overseas agricultural cooperation zones. The empirical analysis results indicate that the total import and export trade volume of agricultural products, agricultural land area, and labor resources of the host country have a significant promoting effect on the establishment of overseas agricultural cooperation zones. The economic freedom index has a significant negative impact on the establishment of overseas agricultural cooperation zones, while the port throughput has no significant impact. China should consider several main factors when selecting a host country to establish overseas agricultural cooperation zones, including bilateral trade volume of agricultural products, agricultural resource endowments, labor resources, and economic freedom of the host country, which can provide reference for the spatial layout of the overseas agricultural cooperation zones.

Dynamics between trade openness, FDI and economic growth: evidence from an emerging economy

PurposeThis paper aims to examine the dynamics between trade openness, foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in India over the period 1979 to 2017. This study further considers the role of pre and post-economic reforms in the analysis of these dynamics.Design/methodology/approachThe authors apply the autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the possible long-run associations among the variables. Zivot-Andrew unit root test was applied to detect the structural breaks present in the data series. Toda-Yamamoto causality approach has been applied to examine the direction of causality among the variables.FindingsFindings show that trade openness exerts a negative impact on economic growth in the long-run. Although FDI inflow promotes economic growth in the long-run, FDI inflow does not seem to affect growth in the short-run. As far as causality analysis is concerned, findings confirm a unidirectional causality is flowing from FDI inflow and labour force to per capita gross domestic product growth in India.Practical implicationsThe negative impact of trade openness on growth suggests that policymakers should implement more export-oriented policies to boost economic growth in the long-run. The ratio of exports to the total volume of trade has not increased satisfactorily over the years. Additionally, appropriate policies should aim at extracting the benefits of FDI inflow in the long-run.Originality/valueAlthough several theoretical and empirical literature has investigated the nexus between FDI (or trade) and growth, this study, as a fresh attempt, investigates the long-run dynamics between trade openness, FDI, capital formation, labour force and economic growth in India.

The stock market infrastructure development in formation of the investment bank business model in Ukraine

Introduction. Modern trends in the world economy development cause an objective process of increasing stock market role and stimulate forming of investment bank business model in the domestic financial markets.
 Aim and tasks. The aim is to determine the role of the stock market infrastructure development in formation of the investment bank business model in Ukraine. It is necessary to perform the following tasks to achieve this goal: to determinate direction of Ukrainian financial market development and to analyze dynamic of the structure of loan and investment bank portfolio in last five years which allow to evaluate forming of the investment bank business model in Ukraine; to estimate the stock market infrastructure development through its participants.
 Results. The analysis of the loan and investment bank portfolio structure has shown rising of banks’ interest to the operations in the stock market and forming of the investment bank business model in Ukraine. But the structure of the investment portfolio of Ukrainian banks is dominated by domestic government bonds. The main reasons of such investment structure: the low total trading volume in the stock market; the absence of other financial instruments in the stock market; the low level of stock market development through the need to form stock market infrastructure. Studying the stock market infrastructure essence has substantiated the using of institutional approach to identify the level of its development. To the infrastructure participants in the stock market it is carried out organization of trade in financial instruments, clearing institutions, depository system, information, analytical and rating agencies. The infrastructural participants of the stock market in Ukraine has been characterized and analyzed.
 Conclusions. The Ukrainian stock market infrastructure is actively developing in the direction of creating conditions that brings it as close as possible to European and world standards. Such situation will make foundation of the investment bank business model forming. But conducted research has shown that it is necessary, on the one side, to stimulate the increase in stock trading volume and, on the other side, to make the stock market more accessible not only to investors, but to individuals too. The development of information technologies as an integral part of the stock market infrastructure in Ukraine has been worked out.

Can Africa raise export competitiveness through economic complexity? Evidence from (non)‐parametric panel techniques

AbstractEconomic complexity is an indicator of a nation's productive capabilities. It therefore determines the nature and quality of the products that a country can put up for exports. This suggests that building economic complexity can serve as a channel through which African countries can boost export competitiveness. To this end, the impact of economic complexity on the export volume of Africa's top 10 exporting countries which jointly account for about 78% of total trade volume on the continent for the period 2000–2018, is examined. Employing a parametric common correlated effects mean group estimation technique and a non‐parametric time‐varying model with fixed effects technique, this study shows that economic complexity is indeed a determinant of export competitiveness. However, its effect is not as powerful as those of GDP, real exchange rate, trade openness and foreign direct investment. This suggests that, although policies that emphasize economic complexity are useful, they should not be treated as stand‐alone policies. Instead, governments should adopt holistic trade policy reforms that take economic complexity into account, along with other factors such as exchange rates, economic growth, trade openness and foreign direct investment.