Total Supply Research Articles

Safer and targeted use of antipsychotics in youth: an embedded, pragmatic randomized trial

BackgroundAntipsychotic medications (AP) are inappropriately prescribed to young people. The goal of this pragmatic trial was to test a four‐component approach to improved targeting of antipsychotic prescribing to people aged ≥3 and <18 years.MethodsClinicians in four health systems were cluster randomized by the number of previous AP orders and service line – specialty mental health and all others. Intervention arm clinicians received a best practice alert and child psychiatrist consultation and feedback. Families received system navigation and expedited access to psychotherapy. Primary outcomes were total days' supply of AP medication and proportion of youth with any AP supply at 6 months. We estimated the log‐odds of AP use at 6 months and the relative rate of AP over 6 months. The Safer and Targeted Use of Antipsychotics in Youth (SUAY) trial took place between 3/2018 and 12/2020.ResultsThe trial enrolled 733 patients. The odds ratio (OR) comparing use at 6 months was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.52, 1.09). The mean number of days using AP was 118.5 for intervention patients and 128.2 for control patients (relative risk [RR] = 0.92; 95% CI: 0.81–1.04). Exploratory heterogeneity of treatment effects (HTE) was not detected in groups defined by age, gender, provider specialty, and insurance type. HTE by race/ethnicity was present: among youth of color, mean days' supply was 103.2 for intervention arm and 131.2 for the control arm (RR 0.79, 95% CI: 0.67–0.93). Among secondary outcomes, only new psychotherapy referrals differed with 44.3% (n = 154) of intervention participants having a new order for psychotherapy compared to 33.5% (n = 129) in the control arm (OR 1.47: 95% CI: 1.01–2.14).ConclusionsThis intervention did not result in less AP use at 6 months or a reduction in the days' supply of AP medication, although psychotherapy orders increased. The intervention may be effective for some subgroups.

Bacillus-inoculated organomineral fertilizer in soybean crop during short-term: comparing sources and doses with mineral fertilizer

Bacillus species and organomineral fertilizers can improve various crop responses. The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficiency of organomineral fertilizer with B. subtilis and B. licheniformis, in comparison to mineral fertilizer, on soybean growth, leaf nutrient content, grain yield, and soil characteristics. Two soybean field experiments (305 km apart) were set up in southeastern Brazil. Two sources of fertilizers (inoculated granulated organomineral, 5-26-0 + 0-0-32 N-P2O5-K2O, and coated mineral fertilizer, 10-52-0 + 0-0-60 N-P2O5-K2O), and four doses of P plus K (no fertilizer, 50, 75, 100 kg ha−1 of each P2O5 and K2O) were applied. At 60 days after sowing, plant height and leaf analysis were assessed. Weight of 1000 seeds, grain yield, and soil analysis were evaluated (120 days after sowing). In both fields, there was interaction between source and P plus K dose factors for soybean grain yield. In Site 1, the highest grain yield (4,543.69 kg ha−1) was observed for 100 kg ha−1 of P2O5 and K2O dose of coated mineral fertilizer; in Site 2, the highest grain yield (4,638.55 kg ha−1) was observed for 75 kg ha−1 of P2O5 and K2O dose of organomineral fertilizer. These factors also affected N, P, and K leaf contents. Less effects were observed on plant height, weight of 1000 seeds, and soil characteristics. Inoculated organomineral fertilizer can be used for total or partial supply of nutrients without a clear difference from mineral fertilization. Smaller doses of inoculated organomineral fertilizer could be used without compromising soybean grain yield.

Are narwhals critical for the meat supply in East Greenland ?

In East Greenland, the recommendations for the closure of the narwhal (Monodon monoceros) hunt coincide with a pressing demand to continue hunting for meat to supply local communities. By analysing catch statistics and estimating average meat yields, the available meat from marine mammals, polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and muskox (Ovibos moschatus) in East Greenland can be assessed. On average, there was approximately 426 tonnes of meat available per year during this period. However, this quantity declined due to reduced catches of hooded seals (Cystophora cristata) and ringed seals (Phoca hispida) after 2007. This decline was somewhat offset by the inclusion of new species in the hunt, such as dolphins (Delphinidae), killer whales (Orcinus orca), and pilot whales (Globicephala melas). The average annual meat availability per inhabitant decreased from 150 kg before 2008 to 94 kg afterward. Narwhals consistently contributed approximately 5–6% of the total annual meat supply in Greenland over the observed period, which suggests that narwhal meat is not critical for the overall food supply. The inclusion of the need for meat in discussions surrounding sustainable harvest levels has been a point of controversy, particularly in cases where an urgent halt to hunting is needed.

Russian wheat export to African countries at the present stage: key development features, challenges and opportunities

The Russian Federation traditionally remains one of the most important producers and suppliers of wheat on the world market of agricultural raw materials and food. The countries of the African continent, on the contrary, form the largest group of importers and consumers of this product. The purpose of the article is to identify the main trends in the dynamics of Russian wheat exports to African countries at the present stage, as well as to identify the key features of this aspect of trade relations between the parties. The article examines the dynamics and features of export-import relations between the Russian Federation and African countries in the field of international wheat trade through the prism of food security theory. The paper presents an analysis of numerical indicators of wheat production in Russia and its exports to African countries in comparison with indicators of total supplies to the world market, identifies specific features of Russian exports focused on supplies to the African region, and concludes that Russia needs to expand its participation in ensuring food security in the Global South. The source base is statistical materials containing numerical indicators of wheat production and trade by countries and regions of the world, published by international organizations (FAO, International Trade Center, UNCTAD/WTO), national executive authorities, their subordinate institutions and the Bureau of Statistics (Rosstat, USDA); as well as analytical and information and news publications on the topic.

The safety and feasibility of laparoscopic partial splenectomy: analysis of perioperative indications from different vascular subtypes and improvement of surgical approach.

While laparoscopic splenectomy (LS) has been widely used in benign splenic tumor, more concerns have been raised for postoperatively short-term and long-term complications. Laparoscopic partial splenectomy (LPS) is a surgical option, to preserve splenic function, and reduce postoperative complications. The aim of our study was to retrospectively identify the safety and feasibility of LPS compared with LS in patients with splenic benign tumor. From 2014 to 2024, a total of 165 patients diagnosed with occupational splenic lesions underwent splenectomy, of whom 87 underwent LPS and 78 underwent LS. We compare the perioperative parameters and long term follow up between these two groups. The etiology of splenic space-occupying lesions was nonparasitic splenic cysts, followed by splenic lymphangioma and splenic hemangioma. Of the patients with LPS, 55 underwent conventional surgery with blockage of the splenic arterial branch and resection along the ischemic line (RAIL), and 32 underwent with our modified total splenic blood supply blockade followed by resection alone the tumor edge (RATE). The tumor size, the operative time and estimated blood loss were comparable between the LPS and LS groups. One patient developed abnormal signs during the LPS procedure and was promptly referred for LS. The LPS group had fewer pancreatic leakage, incision infection, and pulmonary infection. As for different vascular types, patients with LS under all branches of the splenic artery had a longer time to resume postoperative feeding. As for the comparison of RAIL and RATE, estimated blood and operative time were significantly reduced in patients receiving RATE. Postoperative complications were the same in patients underwent each surgical procedures. LPS is a viable approach for patients with splenic benign tumor. We introduce the tumor artery supply types to indicate the resection region. Our RATE technique has proven to be clinically effective and safety.

Optimizing Supply Chain Design under Demand Uncertainty with Quantity Discount Policy

In typical business situations, sellers usually offer discount schemes to buyers to increase overall profitability. This study aims to design a supply chain network under uncertainty of demand by integrating an all-unit quantity discount policy. The objective is to maximize the profit of the entire supply chain. The proposed model is formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear programming model, which is subsequently linearized into a mixed integer linear programming model and hence able to obtain a global solution. Numerical examples in the manufacturing supply chain where customer demand follows normal distributions are used to assess the effect of quantity discount policies. Key findings demonstrate that the integration of quantity discount policies significantly reduces total supply chain costs and improves inventory management under demand uncertainty, and decision makers need to decide a balance level between service levels and profits.

Rise of the robots: implementing robotic surgery into the acute care surgery practice.

Acute Care Surgery (ACS) admissions and procedures are substantially increasing. ACS disproportionally accounts for a majority of morbidity and mortality among surgical patients. Minimally invasive techniques are associated with improved outcomes and shorter hospital length of stay within the ACS population. While laparoscopy is widespread, ACS surgeons have been slower to adopt the use of robotics. We aimed to evaluate the feasibility of incorporating robotic surgery within ACS practice. Robotic General Surgery operations performed by 8 Acute Care Surgeons from 5 local facilities within a large integrated healthcare system were queried over a 15 month period. Patients who underwent emergent, urgent, sub-acute, and elective robotic operations by ACS staff were identified. Demographics collected included age, gender, BMI, and ASA score. Outcomes recorded included procedure classification, total supply and implant charges (TSI), conversion to open, hospital length of stay (LOS), 30 day readmission, and 30 day mortality. Of 200 operations, the most common were Cholecystectomy (43.5%), Inguinal hernia repair (26.0%), Ventral hernia repair (18.0%), Appendectomy (5.0%), and Sigmoid Colectomy (3.5%). The median (± std dev) age was 48 ± 16.66years and BMI was 29.9 ± 8.79kg/m2. 46% of cases were sub-acute (n = 92), 33.5% were elective (n = 67), 14% were emergent (n = 28), and 6.5% were urgent (n = 13). Most patients were ASA 2 (107, 46.1%) or ASA 3 (71, 45.9%). The median (IQR) TSI and LOS were $1,770 (889.50) USD and 0.1 (0.9) days. Forty-one inpatient procedures were performed. Median LOS was 3days and expected LOS was 3.1days (O:E = 0.96). Five patients were readmitted within 30days, and there were no deaths within 30days. Robotic techniques may be safely implemented by ACS surgeons, potentially benefitting both patient and surgeon. LOS was similar between laparoscopic and robotic cases and only two cases required conversion to an open procedure. Next steps include a multi-center prospective trial comparing robotic to laparoscopic cases.

Strategic supply and transportation planning of a supply chain for agricultural biomass to hydrogen and syngas

Strategic supply and transportation planning of agricultural biomass to hydrogen and syngas supply chain with inter-fuel and inter-biomass substitution was studied in this paper. The sourcing and transportation decision was modeled, according to bi-level optimization, where suppliers competed on supply capacity by maximizing their profits at minimum transportation and holding cost. Considering supply chain superstructure, dual biomass suppliers were modeled to supply a biofuel producer who produced two different types of biofuels. The supply planning was combined with transportation planning to minimize total supply chain costs. The results showed that the model was capable of finding optimum purchase and selling prices and production capacity, by maximizing inter-fuel and inter-biomass substitutability. Another key finding was that the proposed model was capable of finding optimum order allocation to both biomass suppliers in such a way that there was an equal profit distribution between suppliers and biofuel producers.

Sediment Source Partitioning and Budgeting Over Historical Timescales in a Glacierized, Mountain Catchment

AbstractManaging and living with geohazards is especially challenging in mountain landscapes and requires an understanding of catchment‐scale sediment dynamics and internal system functioning. While sediment budgeting is a valuable framework, challenges remain including partitioning sediment yield by source and grain size and addressing scale issues. This study advances our understanding of bed material dynamics in glacierized mountain catchments by applying a range of complementary techniques to measure sediment transfers in the Fitzsimmons Creek watershed. First, we measured the historical bed material yield using field surveys and historical air photo analysis, revealing an average specific sediment yield of 210 Mg km−2 yr−1, that varied by a factor of 17 over the 76‐year record. Hydro‐meteorological and historical analyses suggest that gravel extraction had the largest impact over the past three decades, while an extreme landslide and flood event produced the highest recorded sediment yield. Second, we constructed a detailed sediment budget along the river system using high‐resolution, multi‐temporal lidar and geomorphic mapping data. Sediment source partitioning indicates that landslide, active channel, and floodplain sources each contributed about one‐third of the total sediment supply. Net degradation occurred along the valley bottom upstream of the fan‐delta, resulting in steadily increasing downstream sediment yield. This trend is punctuated by chronic landsliding near the outlet, driven by postglacial incision through glaciogenic sediments at a hanging valley step. Contemporary glacial and proglacial sources were not measured directly but surprisingly contributed minimally. These findings provide insight into the sediment dynamics of glacierized mountain catchments and their potential controls.

On Waterfall's cryptoeconomic forecast

This work presents a system dynamics modeling approach to evaluate critical economic metrics on the Waterfall platform, a decentralized public network. The constructed model serves as a significant tool for understanding the intricate economic processes within the platform and supports informed decision-making by stakeholders. By using input parameters such as the number of network validators and transactions per second (TPS) over time, the model projects key metrics like the inflation rate and total supply of coins, providing insights into the platform's economic stability. The Waterfall platform is designed as a scalable smart contract ecosystem, underpinned by cryptoeconomics, to ensure a self- sustaining and self-regulating environment that maximizes stakeholder benefits. The platform's mainnet, launched in June 2024, has shown consistency between testnet results and theoretical calculations, demonstrating the robustness of the underlying economic model. However, as with any economic system, forecasting is essential for decision-making and improving efficiency. The system dynamics model allows for the exploration of different scenarios, considering various growth assumptions for validators and TPS, to project future economic conditions of the platform. Three scenarios – pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic – are considered, each with distinct growth trajectories for the number of validators and TPS. The outcomes highlight that while the initial stages of the network are characterized by high reward rates due to a smaller number of validators, these rates decline as more validators join, affecting the inflation rate over time. The relationship between the minting of new coins (as validator rewards) and the burning of transaction fees determines the system's inflationary dynamics. Under certain conditions, an increase in TPS could lead to deflation, enhancing the platform's economic sustainability. The results suggest that Waterfall's cryptoeconomic model has a strong potential for long-term stability and growth. The model's flexibility allows for adjustments based on real-time data and expert judgments, making it a valuable tool for both internal stakeholders and external analysts. This approach could also be applied to studying the cryptoeconomics of other decentralized networks, providing a broader understanding of their economic stability and long-term viability.

Assessing water supply/demand dynamic balance in arid environments with policy options: a case study of Kuwait

ABSTRACT The water situation in arid environments is fragile because of climate change, population growth, economic development, irrational behavior in consumption patterns, and water pollution, which in their entirety threaten water security for such environments. The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) (a planning software) was used to assess the actual (2000–2023) water supply sustainability with realistic annual growth rates to project (2024–2035) water demands for Kuwait's water future. The actual total water supply was found to be 1,375 Mm3/yr, of which 44% was for domestic, 5% for industrial, and 51% for agricultural water uses. It was also found that the per capita consumption for domestic and industrial purposes was 214 m3/yr. Suitable growth rates were as follows: 2, 1.5, and 1% for domestic, industrial, and agricultural sectors, respectively. This will result in water shortage of 235 Mm3/yr during the period 2024–2035. Kuwait is called to implement strategic solutions to fully reuse treated wastewater and the virtual water concept for agricultural development purposes. This study demonstrates that when Kuwait implements these solutions, it can reduce CO2 emissions by 1.175 million tons saving $573 million annually. With the proper measures and policies, Kuwait can reduce their bulk water demand by 235 million cubic meters saving $1.15 billion dollars per year.

Sowing the Seeds of Financial Crises: Endogenous Asset Creation and Adverse Selection

Abstract What sows the seeds of financial crises, and what policies can help avoid them? I model the interaction between the ex-ante production of assets and ex-post adverse selection in financial markets. Positive shocks that increase market prices exacerbate the production of low-quality assets and can increase the likelihood of a financial market collapse. The interest rate and the liquidity premium are endogenous and depend on the functioning of financial markets as well as the total supply of assets (private and public). Optimal policy balances the economy's liquidity needs ex-post with the production incentives ex-ante, and it can be implemented with three instruments: government bonds, asset purchase programs, and transaction taxes. Public liquidity improves incentives but implies a higher deadweight loss than private market interventions. Optimal policy does not rule out private market collapses but mitigates the fluctuations in total liquidity.

Multi-scale matching and simulating flows of ecosystem service supply and demand in the Wuhan metropolitan area, China

Metropolitan areas face the challenge of balancing increasing social needs against limited natural resources. The multi-scale evaluation of ecosystem services (ES) supply, demand and flows is crucial but under explored. Four prominent ES, food provision (FP), carbon sequestration (CS), soil conservation (SC), and outdoor recreation (OR) in Wuhan metropolitan area (WMA) were selected as cases. ES supply and demand were assessed by InVEST model, geographic information system (GIS) spatial analysis, and statistical methods. A linear programming model was employed to reveal the characteristics of ES flows. Results showed the following: (1) the total ES supply capacity can meet the demand of the study area. At different scales, the supply patterns were fundamentally consistent, except for FP, which was significantly higher in Wuhan's suburban areas. In contrast, the other three ES exhibited high supply in the northeast and south WMA, encompassing the Dabie and Mufu Mountains. The high demand for all ES radiated from the city center, except for SC. (2) A significant scale effect of ES mismatch was found, and ecological deficit patches decreased with increasing research scale. The Mismatch was evident on finer scales but lessened at coarser ones. (3) ES flows, consisting of FP, CS, and OR, formed a flow pattern from the suburbs to the city center. Coarse-scale management integrating ecological flows may better maintain ES balance than fine-scale measures. These findings provide insights for multi-scale management strategies that not only contribute to localized ecological restoration, but also optimize strategies for ecological corridors and compensation mechanisms.

257 Total degradable and undegradable protein and carbohydrate supply to dairy cows from the newly developed blended fat stimulated feed product in comparison with commercial protein and energy feeds

Abstract The objectives of this study were to determine total rumen degradable and undegradable protein and carbohydrate supply to dairy cows from the newly developed value-added blended fat stimulated feed product (BFSFP) in comparison with commercial protein and energy feeds. The new blended fat stimulated feed products with three-batch samples (BFSFP1, BFSFP2, BFSFP3) were developed. Barley grain samples (n = 3) and canola meal samples (n = 3) were obtained from Canadian Feed Research Center. Total rumen degradable and undegradable protein and carbohydrate supply to dairy cows were determined using the updated Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System. The treatment design was a one-way structure. The experimental design was a CRD with feed treatments as a fixed effect. The data were analyzed using the Mixed model procedure of SAS. Tukey method was used for mean separation. The results showed that compared with commercially available energy-rich and protein-rich feeds, the BFSFP had less (P < 0.05) total degradable protein supply to dairy cows (TRDP: 17.0 vs. 23.9, 7.4%DM) and total undegradable protein supply (TRUP: 13.9 vs. 17.8, 5.1%DM) than canola meal and greater than barley grain. For carbohydrate degradable and undegradable supply to dairy cows, the results showed that the BFSFP had greater (P < 0.05) total degradable carbohydrate supply to dairy cows (TRUC) than canola meal and less than barley grain (TRDC: 26.0 vs. 20.8, 56.6%DM, respectively). The BFSFP had greater total undegradable carbohydrate supply (TRUC) than canola meal and barley grain (supply (TRUC: 30.3 vs. 28.7, 26.6%DM, respectively, P = 0.09).

Decisions and coordination in low-carbon supply chains with a wholesale price constraint under government subsidies

Motivated by the challenge of meeting carbon-conscious consumers and carbon regulations, this paper expounded on the decisions and coordination in low-carbon supply chains with a wholesale price constraint (WPC). The WPC is the behavior of large retailers (e.g., Walmart, Amazon, and E.Leclerc) that pursue a profit margin that does not fall below a certain level, which can affect supply chain operations. First, we develop a competition model, revealing that the WPC can result in a loss of total supply chain profit and a shortage in carbon emission reduction and then pose systematic challenges. Following this, we design a Nash bargaining-based cooperation model, showing that it can coordinate the supply chain and achieve a continuous allocation of optimal profits according to the bargaining power of firms. Lastly, our extended analysis incorporates the external influence of government subsidies for low-carbon technologies and designs the optimal subsidy mechanism. We demonstrate that, while government subsidies can reduce cost pressures on the supplier and provide incentives to reduce carbon emission, they can also induce the retailer to set a higher WPC for greater profitability, so the performance loss remains prominent. In this circumstance, we construct a Nash bargaining-based cooperation model that can coordinate the supply chain. Overall, our insights can help firms achieve scientific carbon emission reduction and formulate a reasonable WPC, as well as provide a quantitative basis for government carbon regulations.

Parcel-Locker-Sharing Model for E-Commerce Logistics Service Providers

In the e-commerce last-mile delivery process, the asset operators (logistics service providers who own parcel locker facilities) support their delivery service with parcel lockers, while the non-asset operators (logistics service providers without parcel lockers) perform door-to-door delivery. Due to demand fluctuation, asset operators’ parcel-locker slots may be left vacant, while non-asset operators are stuck with the high-cost door-to-door service. The exclusiveness of parcel-locker usage reduces resource utilization and service efficiency in last-mile delivery. Therefore, this paper proposes a parcel-locker-sharing model in which these two parties share the parcel-locker capacity in last-mile delivery. The asset operator rents the unused parcel lockers to the non-asset operator by charging a rental fee,while the non-asset operator rents the parcel lockers for delivery to save logistics costs. The motivation of this alliance is to increase the profits of both parties and that of the total supply chain. This study establishes the supply-chain profit model for the parcel-locker-sharing framework and finds that the profit or loss depends on the comparison of the operation cost savings and delivery-cost savings. A numerical analysis is conducted to validate the final result. The research further suggests the optimal rental quantity and price interval. This paper is the first to study the operational mechanism of sharing the parcel locker between two distinct types of logistics service providers and to offer recommendations for industrial application.

Decarbonization types of medium‐sized and mid‐cap firms in the manufacturing sector

AbstractThe decarbonization of the manufacturing sector is needed to meet the climate goals set by the Paris agreement. Most research so far has focused on large firms. Yet, medium‐sized and mid‐cap firms also face increasing pressures to decarbonize, particularly in their role as suppliers of large firms. Prior research shows that these firms are very heterogeneous and that approaches to decarbonize are not adopted in isolation but within sets or configurations—hence, a detailed investigation of these configurations is fruitful to understand the multiplicity of responses to decarbonization. Such an understanding allows to develop an effective decarbonization policy for medium‐sized and mid‐cap firms and provide meaningful managerial advice. Using a latent‐profile analysis, our study identifies five distinct decarbonization types of medium‐sized firms in the German manufacturing sector that adopt a specific configuration of decarbonization strategies. These types can be described as decarbonization all‐rounders, internal supply chain decarbonizers, total supply chain decarbonizers, decarbonization laggards and decarbonization sceptics. A comparison of these five decarbonization types reveals significant differences in stakeholder pressures, green capabilities and green innovation as well as firm performance and (structural) firm characteristics.

The Effects of Various Internal and External Factors on the Movement of the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange

This study analyzed several factors that affect the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index. The use of the inflation-currency rate, the availability of money, and the BI rate were all internal factors considered in this study. Meanwhile, the external factors used in this study were international gold and oil prices. The Engle-Granger Error Correction Model was used to analyze time series data in this study. The research used the monthly period started from May 2013 until January 2022. The long-term results of the research variables that could influence the exchange rate, total money supply, world oil prices, and world gold prices were all dependent on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index. Meanwhile, the factors that influence the short-term movement of the ISSI exchange rates were inflation, and the BI rate variables.

Shifting Toward Clean Energy Technology: Assessing Vietnam Critical Minerals Demand and Domestic Resources

Abstract Vietnam is progressing toward an energy transition to achieve the 2050 net-zero emissions target by switching from fossil fuel-based to clean energy technologies. According to Politburo’s Resolution No. 55, the renewable energy share in the total primary energy supply will account for 30% by 2045. The newly approved National Power Development Plan set the target to increase the renewables share to 63% of total installed capacity by 2050. The demand for clean energy equipment, such as solar photovoltaic modules, wind turbines, and batteries, is expected to grow rapidly as a result of the decarbonization pathways for the power and transportation sectors in the coming decades. The manufacturing of clean energy equipment will require substantial amounts of critical minerals. Therefore, this study evaluates the demand for major critical minerals in producing clean energy equipment, including cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, silicon, and rare earth elements. The critical minerals demand is estimated based on critical mineral intensities and additional capacities of clean energy equipment to be installed in 2021-2030 and 2031-2050 stages under Vietnam’s current policies. The results show that the total critical minerals demand in 2021-2030 and 2031-2050 is estimated to increase approximately three-fold and 15-fold, respectively, compared to the 2021 level. Furthermore, the article reviews Vietnam’s critical mineral resources and the potential contribution to domestic and global supply in the coming years.

Multi-objective optimal allocation of water resources in Shule River Basin of Northwest China based on climate change scenarios

The optimal allocation of water resources is crucial for addressing regional water scarcity, adapting to climate change, and promoting sustainable development. This study focused on the Shule River Basin and considered three climate scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP5–8.5), which is combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). A water resources optimal allocation model including water supply and demand prediction, multi-objective optimization, decision-making and analysis on optimal water allocation schemes was constructed. This model aims to analyze the optimal allocation of water resources in the Shule River Basin over three planning years (2025, 2030, 2035), considering guarantee rates of 50 % and 75 % under various climate scenarios. The obtained results indicate that: (1) An increasing trend in water demand in the planning year. For instance, under the SSP1–2.6 scenario, the basin's water demand is projected to reach 1.920×10^9 m3, 2.037×10^9 m3, and 2.103×10^9 m3 in 2025, 2030, and 2035, respectively. (2) The total water supply with a guarantee rate of 50 % (75 %) in the planning years is projected to be 1.939 (1.483)×10^9, 1.957(1.502) ×10^9, and 1.974 (1.519) ×10^9 m3, respectively. (3) In the three scenarios of SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5, the water demand for domestic and ecology is met in each planning year. There is a slight water shortage in the industrial sector, with a shortage rate ranging from 0 % to 13.41 %. The agricultural sector experiences the highest water shortage, with a rate of 1.93–44.77 %. (4) The water supply structure of each optimal allocation scheme of water resources was optimized. The economic benefits mainly depend on the industrial and ecological sectors. These findings offer valuable insights for optimizing the distribution of regional water resources in response to changing climatic conditions.