Total Portfolio Research Articles

Comparative Analysis of Conventional (Financial, Network) and Optimized Mixed Integer Linear Programming Scenarios for Telecom Network Investment Decision Making

The telecommunications industry in Indonesia faces numerous challenges in allocating resources for network development, including network complexity, technological changes, market competition, and customer expectations. To achieve optimal financial outcomes and customer satisfaction, investments must be well-managed, well-placed, and well-executed. This study analyses network investment portfolio selection outcomes at Telkomsel; Indonesia's largest cellular operator, comparing conventional scenarios (financial and network) with an optimized scenario using Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). The research evaluates these scenarios based on total portfolio score, incremental revenue, and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). Financial indicators such as net present value (NPV), IRR, EBIT margin, incremental revenue, and network indicators such as capacity and customer satisfaction (download/upload throughput, latency, packet loss, jitter) assess investment feasibility. The MILP optimization scenario strongly correlates with incremental revenue, NPV, and IRR, indicating higher financial performance. Sites selected in the MILP optimization outperscenario formed others in total score (22% better than the financial scenario, 63% better than the network scenario), incremental revenue (3.5% better than the financial scenario, 90.2% better than the network scenario), and portfolio IRR (4% better than the financial scenario, 70% better than the network scenario).

The Effect of Tax Shock on Savings Interest on the Total Portfolio: Financial Computable General Equilibrium (FCGE) Approach

The Effect of Tax Shock on Savings Interest on the Total Portfolio: Financial Computable General Equilibrium (FCGE) Approach

Practical Analysis of Stock Market Under ESG

In today's era, climate change brought about by the greenhouse effect is gradually bringing more and more economic losses and natural disasters. In order to mitigate the negative impact of climate change, many countries have jointly formulated a 1.5°C climate scenario, which has brought a lot of impact on the global economy and industry development (Henderson et al., 2020). At the same time, my client commissioned me to build a portfolio that complies with the 1.5°C climate scenario, and the shares must be included in the S&P 500 Net Zero 2050 Climate Transition ESG Index as of 30/09/2022. The total portfolio is $100,000, and the benchmark designates the S&P 500 Net Zero 2050 Climate Transition ESG Index. Because the investment horizon is short and only six weeks, I chose semi-active management in my portfolio management process, and the rebalancing method was selected as percentage rebalancing. Finally, based on macro and industry analysis and relative valuation and technical analysis of the corresponding stocks, I selected ten stocks: Starbucks Corporation, Tesla, Inc., Amgen Inc., Cisco Systems, Inc., Eversource Energy, The Coca-Cola Company, and Expeditors International of Washington, Inc., Trans Digm Group Incorporated， Netflix, Inc., S&P Global Inc. I calculated their respective shares using the Markowitz model and bought and rebalanced, but unfortunately, my portfolio did not work as expected. The sector index fell by 4.87% in the week of the investment term, but my portfolio fell by 7.45% and performed poorly. Among them, the collapse of Tesla due to special events and my previous judgment of Tesla were greatly affected, and although its share price was only 9.94%, its share price fell by 33.74%. Although the late-stage rebalancing gave me hope for the better, the short investment horizon became a significant obstacle to the improvement of my portfolio.

Investment firms’ carbon targets and their alignment with power and utility assets - A portfolio view to energy transition strategy

The world leaders both in public and private sectors have agreed to set a 1.5 °Celsius ceiling to the global warming and the greenhouse emissions. The commitments to these goals are both voluntary and binding and are designed to lead mid-century anthropogenic emissions to balance to zero. The carbon zero targets can open us a solution and a pathway for change but also, they can be misleading and ambiguous. An important emissions source related to carbon neutrality is carbon-intensive power and utilities. Over 80 % of these critical energy infrastructures are private sector owned and governed by the investment firms and capital markets. In this article we study the connection between the investment firm's carbon targets and their power and utilities company portfolios. The analysis clearly indicates a disconnect between the owner and the assets. Also, investment firm's own operations related carbon targets are highlighted with less emphasis and transparency on total portfolio or asset-based carbon strategies. The high impact activities and alignment with the indicated carbon zero strategies were not transparent and the various indicators showed compelling evidence of lack of positive progress and reaching the targets committed.

Foreign Equity Portfolio Investments and Market Returns at the NSE20 Share Index; Kenya

Purpose: Foreign portfolio investments have continued to play an important role in the world today because investors are more interested in investments that will give them higher returns for their investments. The purpose the study was to establish the effect of foreign portfolio investments and market returns in Kenya. The specific variables studied were foreign equity portfolios, foreign bond portfolios, foreign portfolio of treasury bills and foreign portfolio of exchange traded funds and how they affect the market returns at the NSE20 share index in Kenya.
 Methodology: The research methodology applied panel regression for inferential findings and Langrage multiplier test done to determine the pooled effect with the aid of STATA 18 software. Secondary data was sourced from the NSE annual reports, CMA bulletins, CBK websites of the respective companies listed in the index for the period between 2013 to 2022.
 Findings: The study findings indicated a positive and significant relationship of foreign equity portfolios, foreign portfolio of T Bills and foreign portfolio of ETFs with market returns at the NSE20 share index. Conversely, foreign bond portfolio exhibited a negative significant relationship with market returns at the NSE 20 share index.
 Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: The study supported Modern Portfolio Theory(MPT) that suggests that for an investor to maximize returns, an investor will choose from a wide array of portfolios that will suit his needs and risk profiles and Neoclassical Theory of Investment that suggests that investors will take advantage of location differences to profit from arbitrage opportunities and Total portfolio theory that suggests that combination of securities posits a higher performance due to significant diversification benefits linked to a basket of securities. The Modern portfolio theory measuring market return seemed to hold in that it will give an investor an understanding of the most efficient portfolio that will give the largest returns at a given level of risk. The theory was suggested for future related research because it will give an investor a strategy for successful portfolio investments.

The heterogeneous relationship of owner-occupied and investment property with household portfolio choice

The dual nature of property as both a consumption and investment good presents a challenge for household portfolios. Prior theoretical literature predicts a constraint imposed by property on investment decisions, and empirical studies support this notion. However, previous research often overlooks investigating the heterogeneity of this constraint and fails to differentiate between owner-occupied and investment property. Building on a stochastic control model, we analyse the UK’s Wealth and Assets Survey panel and find that along the distribution of how household allocate their wealth a one percentage point (pp) increase in the share of owner-occupied property in the total portfolio is associated with a 0.07 pp decrease in the share of stocks in liquid assets. However, this association varies significantly based on the value of the owner-occupied property share. For low values of the owner-occupied property share, the association with stockholdings is negligible. As the share of owner-occupied property increases, the negative association with stockholdings becomes more pronounced: when the owner-occupied property share reaches 90%, a further 1 pp increase corresponds to a 0.14 pp decrease in the share of stocks in liquid assets. By contrast, buy-to-let property shows no significant relationship with stockholdings, supporting the idea that the constraint on portfolio decisions is primarily driven by the role of property as a consumption good.

Comprehensive economic analysis and assessment of project implementation efficiency

Subject. The article is devoted to comprehensive analysis of projects to improve the effectiveness of their implementation. Objectives. The aim is to develop a comprehensive methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of project implementation in conditions of uncertainty and risk. Methods. The study draws on systems approach, using general scientific research methods, like deduction, classification, systematization, synthesis, analysis, and empirical research tool, i.e. questionnaires. The theoretical basis of the study was the works of Russian scientists in the field of economic analysis. Results. We developed a methodology for complex economic analysis and evaluation of project implementation efficiency. It includes three analytical blocks: project closure risk assessment by life cycle phase, based on integrated indicators obtained under the method of multidimensional comparison; project ranking, using the hierarchical cluster analysis of time, resource and quality limitation indicators as part of the total portfolio of projects; scoring diagnostics of the level of organizational, methodological and functional maturity of project management system, using the proposed system of test indicators. Conclusions. It is necessary to organize analytical support for projects to increase the efficiency of their implementation and maintain the financial stability of an economic entity applying project management. The developed methodology enables evaluation upon project completion and after the end of individual phases, which makes it possible not only to prepare an information base for making operational management decisions, but also to generate data for adjusting the project management strategy in the organization.

Formation of Optimal Portfolio on JII Stock using Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen Indices during the Period of 2018-2023

Investment is an activity carried out by investors by placing their funds in an asset. The purpose of investment is to gain long-term profits in the future. These profits come from changes in the price of assets in the future, which refers to the increase in the value of an asset over time. Currently, there are several types of investments. However, the type of investment that is quite widely practiced by Indonesian society is stock investment. The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) groups the stocks available in the stock market into several indexes. One index that is currently receiving attention from Indonesian society is the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). The JII is a collection of shares from companies that adhere to sharia principles in their business operations. Investment activities must be carried out carefully by conducting analysis beforehand so that investors do not make mistakes in choosing the stocks to be purchased. Several popular methods for selecting stocks are the Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen indexes. These three indexes can be used to select the best stocks based on their respective criteria. This study combine these three indexes to prioritize the formation of a portfolio. The data used in this study is the closing value of stock prices in the JII index from March 2018 to February 2023. The optimization resulted in a composition of 69.17% for MDKA shares, 26.55% for HRUM shares, and 4.28% for BRIS shares of the total portfolio composition.

Knowledge Management and Blockchain Technology for Organizational Sustainability

Goal: This paper develops a conceptual model representing existing relations between blockchain, knowledge management, and sustainability. Design/Methodology/Approach: A systematic literature review was carried out, and a total portfolio of 43 articles was obtained. These articles were then analyzed using the content analysis technique. Results: Identifying the existing relationships between blockchain and knowledge management and between knowledge management and sustainability was possible. This information allowed the elaboration of the conceptual model, which resulted in the identification of the roles of each theme when related to each other. Limitations of the investigation: The limitations refer to the diversity and complexity of the themes, which made it necessary to limit the search for articles to two databases; the temporality of the research due to the evolution of the blockchain; and the failure to consider the risks arising from the adoption of technology and the negative aspects of the relationships between the themes. Practical Implications: With this article, companies studying blockchain adoption, looking for ways to improve knowledge management, or seeking to adjust their impacts on sustainability, can find information that helps in decision making. Originality/ Value: This article proposes a conceptual model that explains the relationship between three current and increasingly essential topics for organizations. To this end, it seeks to identify in the literature how the application of the first (blockchain) improves the execution of the second (knowledge management) and how this impacts the third (sustainability).

A Model for Risk Adjustment (IFRS 17) for Surrender Risk in Life Insurance

We propose a model for risk adjustment, in the context of IFRS 17, for surrender risk. Surrender rates are assumed to follow a stochastic process, underpinned by data. The distribution of the present value of future individual cash flows is calculated. Using well-known techniques from the theory of convex ordering of stochastic variables, we present closed formula approximations of risk measures, such as quantiles, for the total portfolio. These formulas are easy to program and enable an insurance company to calculate its risk adjustment without time-consuming simulations.

The Determinants of Disaggregated Capital Inflows to Emerging Market Economies: Empirical Evidence from Korea

This paper investigates the key factors in determining disaggregated portfolio investment flows to Korea. I categorize total portfolio investment flows by investor type, such as global banks, investment funds, securities firms, and pension companies. From the structural vector autoregression model with dummy variables, this paper finds that the properties of each institution's capital inflows are quite different. For example, investment funds and securities firm flows are more responsive to stock market index, whereas pension companies are more sensitive to domestic output growth. This implies that the impact of any economic shock on the total foreign capital flows cannot be generalized as the impact on each investment group's capital flow.

Information Content of Hedge Fund Equity Option Holdings

Using a novel sample of 13F reports, the authors document that hedge funds prefer to purchase equity options whose characteristics are particularly well-suited for informed trading. They show that hedge funds purchase liquid high-embedded leverage options without lottery-like skewness. Consistent with informed trading, they find that directional options held by hedge funds deliver superior returns. Although 13F holdings are reported with a 45-day lag, the authors demonstrate that investors can earn profits by utilizing publicly available information on hedge funds’ option holdings. They confirm that hedge funds’ options add value to the total portfolios, indicating that options are economically significant.

Portfolio Concentration and Stock-Specific Risk

In this article, the authors establish a connection between the effective number of portfolio constituents and the ex ante ratio of specific to total portfolio risk. Portfolios with a higher effective number of constituents have lower specific risk, and the decay follows a power law. An easy rule of thumb is that doubling the effective number of constituents approximately halves the proportion of stock-specific risk. The authors investigate the proportion of specific risk of the S&P 500 Index and find that in the period 2002–2022 the S&P 500 portfolio had a proportion of specific risk below the expected range, except for the post–COVID-19 period and that the ratio was never abnormally high.

Analyzing the Relationship between the Features of Direct Real Estate Assets and Their Corresponding Australian—REITs

This study investigated the relationship between a sector-specific Australian Real Estate Investment Trust (A-REITs) and the underlying property assets in its property portfolio. The existing studies have assessed the connectedness/correlation between the A-REITs market and a variety of other asset markets, including the overall stock, bond, and direct real estate markets. This study applied regression analysis methods and discovered that there exists a certain degree of linear correlation between the underlying property assets and the return of the subject A-REITs. The most significant variable is the occupancy of the offices. The higher the occupancy is, the better the dividend can be. Features of the A-REITs also affect the dividend outcomes, specifically, the total portfolio market value and the capitalization rate. This suggests that the annual valuation outcomes show a positive relation with the performance of the A-REITs.

A measurement of dollarization

Purpose- Dollarization refers to the use of foreign currency instead of domestic currency by citizens as a result of macroeconomic instabilities. Generally, due to the instability caused by inflation, the local currency loses its functions as a unit of account, a store of value, and in the last stage, a medium of exchange. Partial dollarization is the fulfillment of any of the three functions of money by a foreign currency. The purpose of this study is to measure the dollarization level of the Turkish economy between 2000 and 2022 (a 23-year period). This study employs the most comprehensive definition of portfolios of Turkish Lira and foreign currency to measure the degree of asset and liability dollarization. This study measures the dollarization degree of the Turkish economy by using the composite dollarization index developed by Reinhart et al., (2003). Methodology- The composite dollarization index based on the definition by Reinhart et al., 2003, has two components; asset dollarization and liability dollarization. This study measures the level of dollarization by using Reinhart's definition of the Turkish economy between 2000 and 2022. We construct the asset dollarization as a ratio of the foreign currency portfolio to the total portfolio. Liability dollarization is defined as the sum of the ratio of foreign currency credit to the total credit, the ratio of the domestic debt in foreign currency to the total domestic debt, and the ratio of total external debt to the GDP. The composite dollarization index is the sum of asset dollarization and liability dollarization. Findings- The dollarization in bank deposits rose to 57%in 2001 and then dropped to 27% in 2010. The dollarization in bank deposits has started to rise again since 2013. The increase in dollarization in bank deposits has accelerated since 2021. It reached 70% by the middle of 2022. Asset dollarization has a similar path to the dollarization in bank deposits. The level of the asset dollarization is generally lower than the level of the deposit dollarization for all years examined. The liability dollarization also follows a similar path. As the degree of asset dollarization increases, the degree of liability dollarization also increases. Finally, the composite dollarization index has been rapidly increasing since 2010. Conclusion- As discussed extensively in the literature, the degree of dollarization is an important indicator of a healthy economy. The literature supports that there is a strong link between the degree of dollarization and macroeconomic indicators. When economic instabilities are on the screen, the use of a stable foreign currency instead of domestic currency increases. Some previous studies measured the dollarization by considering only asset dollarization or only liability dollarization may have deficiencies in the comprehensive definition of dollarization. Therefore, a comprehensive measurement of dollarization should better consider both the assets and liabilities of the balance sheets. The empirical findings of this study indicate that the degree of dollarization has been increasing since 2013 and the rate of increase accelerated especially after 2021 based on the comprehensive dollarization index constructed. Keywords: Dollarization, Turkish economy, composite dollarization index, inflation, macroeconomic instabilities JEL Codes: E31, F31, G01

Portable Beta and Total Portfolio Management

Alternative Risk Premia (ARP) strategies have traditionally been sold as stand-alone products to complement a reference portfolio. We illustrate how ARP can be integrated with a reference portfolio to achieve optimal total portfolio outcomes. From 1931 to 2020, a factor diversifying overlay reduces the risk of the reference portfolio and captures a welfare enhancing diversification premium. The relaxation of the risk budget enhances the fund Sharpe ratios through strategic factor tilts and by levering existing asset class or active management exposures. We provide a modular framework illustrating how ARP overlays may complement the decentralized investment management model to benefit plan constituents.

Mortgage lending market in Russia in terms of exit out of the pandemic

Aim. The work aimed to summarize the results of the development of the mortgage lending market during the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic and predict its development in the near future.Tasks. The work was performed to investigate the volume of issuance and growth rates of mortgage lending in Russia; to analyze the dynamics of the total mortgage portfolio of the banking system of the Russian Federation (RF), as well as the average cost of 1 square meter of housing in the primary and secondary markets in a pandemic, combined with government support; demonstrate possible changes in the Russian mortgage market during the exit out of the COVID-19 pandemic and consequences of the implementation of state market support programs.Methods. The methodological foundation of the study was the general scientific methods of cognition, namely analysis, synthesis, generalization, visualization, and forecasting. In particular, the authors analyzed the indicators of the mortgage lending and real estate markets, identified causal relationships between the state support for mortgage lending and changes in the main parameters of the real estate market, as well as forecasting the dynamics of its individual indicators.Results. The work presents the main indicators characterizing mortgage lending in Russia from 2014 to the present time, including the aggregate mortgage portfolio of Russian banks. The study describes the average cost of 1 square meter of housing in the primary and secondary markets. The authors of the article predicted changes in the mortgage lending market, the state of the quality of bank loan portfolios and trends in the residential real estate market as a whole.Conclusion. Under conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic, mortgage lending has shown its incredible growth in association with government support. However, according to the authors, there will be significant changes in the future, which will be the consequences of such a rapid development, namely an increase in overdue indebtedness on mortgage loans, a shortage of demand for built housing which has sharply become expensive. Banks will be forced to tighten monitoring of mortgage programs and select carefully new borrowers, ensuring their highest quality.

Adjustable-rate mortgages in the era of global reflation: How to model additional default risk?

We investigate the problem of interest rate risk transforming into default risk of adjustable-rate mortgage loans in the EU. Bank regulation is strikingly not neutral in this aspect, it explicitly favors short-duration adjustable-rate loans over long-duration fixed-rate loans in the framework of the gap management. This asymmetry in the regulation creates perverse incentives both for banks and households, which can lead to aggressive risk-taking, over-indebtedness of unhedged households, high procyclicality of mortgage markets, and increased systemic risks. We present a stress test model to quantify potential losses stemming from this specific risk from the perspective of lender institutions. We estimate the average extra capital that is needed to cover the additional risk of adjustable-rate mortgage loans in the EU to be 0.53% of the value of the total mortgage portfolio and 1.97% of the value of the adjustable-rate mortgage portfolio. We propose introducing a stress test model as a new mandatory element into banks’ risk management framework.

A general surplus decomposition principle in life insurance

ABSTRACT In with-profit life insurance, the prudent valuation of future insurance liabilities leads to systematic surplus that mainly belongs to the policyholders and is redistributed as bonus. For a fair and lawful redistribution of surplus, the insurer needs to decompose the total portfolio surplus with respect to the contributions of individual policies and with respect to different risk sources. For this task, actuaries have a number of heuristic decomposition formulas, but an overarching decomposition principle is still missing. This paper fills that gap by introducing a so-called ISU decomposition principle that bases on infinitesimal sequential updates of the insurer's valuation basis. It is shown that the existing heuristic decomposition formulas can be replicated as ISU decompositions. Furthermore, alternative decomposition principles and their relation to the ISU decomposition principle are discussed. The generality of the ISU concept makes it a useful tool also beyond classical surplus decompositions in life insurance.

Special-Rate Life Annuities: Analysis of Portfolio Risk Profiles

Special-rate life annuities are life annuity products whose single premium is based on a mortality assumption driven (at least to some extent) by the health status of the applicant. The health status is ascertained via an appropriate underwriting step (which explains the alternative expression “underwritten life annuities”). Better annuity rates are then applied in presence of poor health conditions. The worse the health conditions, the smaller the modal age at death (as well as the expected lifetime), but the higher the variance of the lifetime distribution. The latter aspect is due to significant data scarcity as well as to the mix of possible pathologies leading to each specific rating class. A higher degree of (partially unobservable) heterogeneity inside each sub-portfolio of special-rate annuities follows, and this results in a higher variability of the total portfolio payout. The present research aims at analyzing the impact of extending the life annuity portfolio by selling special-rate life annuities. Numerical evaluations have been performed by adopting a deterministic approach as well as a stochastic one, according to diverse assumptions concerning both lifetime distributions and portfolio structure and size. Our achievements witness the possibility of extending the annuity business without taking huge amounts of risk. Hence, the risk management objective “enhancing the company market share” can be pursued without significant worsening of the annuity portfolio risk profile.