Insulated gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) is the most important power electronic component in the traction converters of trains. During the operation of the IGBT, the solder layer is continuously subjected to alternating stress, which eventually leads to the fatigue failure of the solder layer. Therefore, an accurate assessment of the lifetime of the IGBT module solder layer is of great importance for the safe and reliable operation of the trains. Firstly, the micromechanism of the plastic deformation of the base solder layer of the IGBT module is introduced, as well as the lifetime model based on the plastic strain energy density. Then the total plastic strain energy density of the base solder layer is determined by conducting the accelerated aging tests on the IGBT module and combining the finite element simulation results. Meanwhile, the relationship between different aging degrees of the base solder layer of the IGBT module and the plastic strain energy density is studied by finite element simulation. Then, the lifetime of the base solder layer at different aging stages is calculated based on the above results so that the total lifetime of the IGBT module is obtained. Finally, the predicted lifetime of the IGBT module by the proposed method is compared with the lifetime obtained by the accelerated aging test and compared with the traditional lifetime prediction method based on the Coffin-Manson-Arrhenius model. The comparison results verify the accuracy of the proposed lifetime prediction method in this paper.