Total Number Of Years Research Articles

Effect of disjunct sampling on calibration of design wind speed

Three main tasks consist of calibrating design wind speed. These include obtaining high quality extreme wind speed records, selecting the most appropriate probabilistic model, and applying the best fitting method to estimate the distribution parameters. The last two aspects have critical impact on the calibrated design wind speeds and have been intensively studied periodically. However, data quality is still the primary factor that affects the reliability of the calibrated design wind speed. The data is typically screened and processed before carrying out extreme value analysis. This includes removing erroneous data and conducting standardization. Besides quality control and standardization, the total number of years of data and the sampling intervals of data in each recording day also need to be considered. The former concern, also known as sample size effect, is well acknowledged and revisited in a recent study. The later concern draws relatively few attentions. One recent study investigated the later concern by using some wind speed observations at ground level. As the sample size is limited, the effect of sample size and disjunct sampling could be mixed in their observation. Moreover, appreciation of the disjunct sampling from sampling theory was not investigated in their study. To better appreciate the impact of disjunct sampling on design wind speed calibration alone, the effect of sample size needs to be eliminated. This requires very long period wind speed records that are not available for historical records. Therefore, this study employs Monte Carlo technique to simulate long term wind speed samples. The simulated wind speeds are used to investigate the impact of disjunct sampling on the design wind speed and the combined effect of disjunct sampling and limited sample size on design wind speed. Effect of disjunct sampling appears in part of the period on the estimated return period wind speeds is also investigated.

Pattern recall, decision making and talent identification in rugby union

The ability to make fast, accurate decisions is an essential skill for all who play sport. However, measuring this ability has proved difficult for coaches and talent identification practitioners. Pattern recognition (a key factor in decision making) has commonly been measured using pattern recall tasks. This study aimed to understand whether accuracy when recalling rugby union patterns is a valid measure of on-field decision making performance. In Study 1, professional players recalled structured patterns of players from still images (N = 20) viewed for 5 s. On-field decision-making markers, including coaches’ rankings of decision-making ability, playing position, number of years playing professionally and total number of years playing rugby union, were used as predictor variables of recall accuracy. Results showed that only total number of years playing rugby union was correlated with recall accuracy, suggesting that caution is necessary when adopting these tasks for talent identification purposes. The structured stimuli used in Study 1 were not representative of a true rugby union game, so Study 2 tested novice and expert players on a pattern recall task that included structured, semi-structured and unstructured rugby union patterns. Experts were significantly more accurate than novices when recalling structured and semi-structured patterns; however, there were no differences when recalling unstructured patterns. It was concluded that structured and semi-structured patterns should be used in future studies to test whether pattern recall tasks can be used for talent identification in rugby union.

Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Rainfall Forecasting in the Geum River Basin, Korea

This study develops a late spring-early summer rainfall forecasting model using an artificial neural network (ANN) for the Geum River Basin in South Korea. After identifying the lagged correlation between climate indices and the rainfall amount in May and June, 11 significant input variables were selected for the preliminary ANN structure. From quantification of the relative importance of the input variables, the lagged climate indices of East Atlantic Pattern (EA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), East Pacific/North Pacific Oscillation (EP/NP), and Tropical Northern Atlantic Index (TNA) were identified as significant predictors and were used to construct a much simpler ANN model. The final best ANN model, with five input variables, showed acceptable performance with relative root mean square errors of 25.84%, 32.72%, and 34.75% for training, validation, and testing data sets, respectively. The hit score, which is the number of hit years divided by the total number of years, was more than 60%, which indicates that the ANN model successfully predicts rainfall in the study area. The developed ANN model, incorporated with lagged global climate indices, could allow for more timely and flexible management of water resources and better preparation against potential droughts in the study region.

Pitching Performance After Ulnar Collateral Ligament Reconstruction at a Single Institution in Major League Baseball Pitchers

Background: Ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) reconstruction (UCLR) has shown reliable rates of return to play, with conflicting results on pitching performance after players’ return. Purpose: To evaluate Major League Baseball (MLB) pitching performance before and after UCLR performed at a single institution. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: MLB pitchers (minor league players were excluded) who underwent UCLR at our institution between 2002 and 2016 were identified. Player information and return to play were determined including pitching level (MLB vs minor league) and total number of years played after surgery. Pitching performance statistics were evaluated for 3 years before surgery and for 3 years after returning to play including earned run average (ERA), walks plus hits per inning pitched (WHIP), innings pitched, wins above replacement, runs above replacement, and pitch velocity. Results: A total of 54 MLB pitchers were identified, with 46 primary and 8 revision reconstructions. The mean time to return to play was 13.8 months (primary reconstruction: 13.7 months). The majority returned to play with a 94% return rate (primary reconstruction: 96%), and 80% returned to MLB play (primary reconstruction: 82%). Three primary reconstructions required revision surgery. Pitchers played a mean of 3.2 years in MLB and 4.6 years total after surgery (39% still playing). Pitching workload and performance were maintained or improved after surgery. The preoperative ERA was 4.63 versus 4.13 after returning to play (P = .268). Fastball velocity (P = .032), ERA (P = .003), and WHIP (P = .001) worsened the first year after surgery and then improved the second year (ERA: 4.63 to 4.06 [P = .380]; WHIP: 1.35 to 1.32 [P = .221]; fastball velocity: 91.3 to 91.9 mph [P = .097]). Compared with a matched control group, pitchers who had UCLR showed improvements or maintained performance after reconstruction including improved ERA (P = .007), WHIP (P = .025), and fastball velocity (P = .006). Conclusion: MLB players experienced a high rate of return to play and previous level of play after UCLR. Pitching workload was maintained after returning to play. Pitching performance initially decreased the first year after returning and then improved or reverted to previous levels after the first year from UCLR.

The Years of Life Lost as a Result of Road Traffic Accidents In Russia in 2000-2012

The road traumatism and its aftermath are global and increasing problem. In 2014 Russia ranked first position in relation to number of deaths because of road accidents per one million of population among countries being members of the UN European economic commission. The purpose of study is to establish gender age characteristics and dynamics of burden of road traffic mortality in Russia. The non-clinical observation study was carried out covering years of life lost as a result of premature mortality due to road traffic accidents in Russia and standard of life expectancy on one-year age groups for males and females during 2000-2012. In 2012, the age interval of 20-34 years covered 50% of total number of years of life lost because of road traffic accidents in males and 37% in females. During the analyzed period, decreasing of number of years of life lost per thousand males/females occurred in all age groups. The dramatic decreasing of rate of increase of losses during 2007-2009 ended in 2010 and their increasing began factually in all age groups. In case of males aged 15-19 years it was thus much significant that number of years of life lost per thousand of males in 2012 (29.8 years per thousand of males) factually returned to level of 2000 (30.8 years per thousand of males).

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas – a cost-effectiveness analysis of management strategies for the branch-duct subtype

BackgroundBranch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (BD-IPMN) presents a clinical conundrum. Rigorous long-term surveillance or surgical resection is recommended. The economic consequences of the management have not been fully investigated. MethodsA Markov decision model compared 4 strategies for low-risk BD-IPMN: I = upfront total pancreatectomy, II = upfront partial pancreatectomy, III = initial surveillance, IV = watchful waiting. Surveillance was based on the Swedish Guidelines for Pancreatic Cancer. Probabilities and costs were obtained from the participating unit and from the scientific literature. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated and sensitivity analyses were performed by varying relevant parameters. Survival was reported in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). ResultsStrategy III was the most cost-effective strategy with an ICER of €31 682 compared to strategy IV. Strategy I was the most expensive but yielded the best QALY (9.32). Total number of years, annual risk of pancreatic cancer and annual risk of a low-risk BD-IPMN turning into a high-risk lesion had the greatest impact in the model. ConclusionsInitial surveillance seems to be the most cost-effective strategy in the management of low-risk asymptomatic BD-IPMN. However, the possibility of personalized approaches remains to be investigated.

Cost-effectiveness of tobacco control strategies towards youths across seven European countries: Measurement, challenges and results

Background Tobacco consumption among adolescents is a major public health concern as it is highly related to smoking addiction in adulthood and, thus, to morbidity and premature mortality. In order to reduce smoking prevalence and its consequences, tobacco control strategies targeting adolescents have been suggested, but only a few have been fully implemented at a large scale. This insufficient implementation is, in part, linked to the concern that some strategies have a high implementation cost, not compensated by their effectiveness. In this study we aimed at estimating the costs and cost-effectiveness of five smoking prevention strategies targeting adolescents (bans on smoking in public places, bans on sales to minors, bans on point-of-sale advertising, bans on smoking at school premises, and school prevention programs), across seven European countries (Finland, Ireland, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Italy, and Portugal) in 2016. Methods We retrospectively collected costs related to (1) the inspection activities and legal procedures related to public bans, (2) the monitoring of school bans and sanctioning of non-compliant students, and (3) school-based education activities related to smoking prevention programs. We used an “ingredients-based” approach, identifying each resource used, quantity and unit value for one full year, under the State perspective. Annual costs were measured at national, local, or school-level, for the year 2016 and were complemented with qualitative data on how these activities were performed in reality, through interviews to key informants at the school, local, regional, and national level. The effectiveness was estimated using the DYNAMO-HIA tool, departing from data on short-term smoking prevalence reduction, collected from the literature. The simulation followed the whole population of each of the seven countries, since year 0 until when the last person of the cohort died, estimating the number of healthy life years (HLY) gained by each intervention, comparing with a no-intervention scenario. The HLY were calculated using estimates for the relationship between smoking and several diseases, as ischemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung, oral, oesophageal, breast and colorectal cancer and for the relationship between these diseases and mortality. Baseline data was adapted to each country, using country-specific epidemiological data. Long-term costs were obtained by multiplying annual cost estimates for a 17-years’ time horizon, in order to reflect the total number of years of implementation for the cohort (to cover all groups that have 0 to 17 years old at year 0). Costs were discounted at a 3.5% annual rate. Results Costs varied between from € 0.07 to € 1.08 per person for public non-school bans, from € 2.28 to € 29.06 for school bans and from € 0.17 to € 3.16 for school programmes, according to the number of person-hours allocated to the implementation of these strategies. Italy was the country with the smallest annual investment on these tobacco-control strategies (€ 2.84 per person), while Ireland had the highest (€ 29.77 per person). Effectiveness estimates ranged from 0.003 HLY gained per person in Portugal, for a 1% short-term relative reduction of smoking prevalence, to 0.39 HLY in Ireland, for a 50% reduction. Public non-school bans were be the most cost-effective interventions, with € 0.18 to € 399.21 per HLY. School bans costed from € 173.41 to € 4315.78 per HLY, and school programmes from € 9.66 to € 11015.38 per HLY. Conclusions These five smoking prevention strategies targeting adolescents are low cost and, considering the WHO cost-effectiveness threshold ratio of each country GDP per capita, highly cost-effective interventions. Hence, investing in tobacco control strategies targeting adolescents may be an economically advantageous approach to tackle one of the main causes of mortality and morbidity in Western Europe.

An Evaluation of Associate Degree Distance Education Programs in Terms of Student Occupancy Rates

This paper will discuss the student occupancy rates between 2007 and 2016 of two-year associate degree distance education programs in Turkey on the basis of both the program and the university and to identify the potential variances. As a result of descriptive analyses, it has been determined that Tour Guiding, Mapping and Cadastral Survey, and Mechatronic programs and Kafkas, Nevsehir Haci Bektas Veli and Celal Bayar Universities have the highest occupancy rates. It has been observed during the statistical analyses that the occupancy rates have not varied based on the period during which the program has been open and the university count. Therefore, the hypothesis that the programs opened by many universities or has accepted students for many years have the highest occupancy rate has not been supported. The university-based analyses have demonstrated that the occupancy rates of universities have varied with regard to the total number of years that distance education programs have been opened. Correspondingly, the universities which have opened the programs in more years than others, those having much experience, in other words, have higher occupancy rates.

Work Activities, Self-Reported Symptoms, and Diminished Lung Function in a Population of Predominantly Hispanic Industrial Hog Operation Workers in North Carolina, United States

Background/Aim: Although swine worker respiratory disease is established, evidence is mainly from predominantly Caucasian farm-owner-operator cohorts whose work exposures may differ from laborers hired to perform day-to-day intensive swine production jobs in confinement barns. The Rural Empowerment Association for Community Help (REACH) has initiated community-based participatory research (CBPR) with Hispanic laborers hired to work in industrial hog operations (IHOs) in eastern North Carolina. Together with REACH, we investigated whether such IHO workers’ occupational exposures were related to respiratory health outcomes. Methods: During 2013-14, we completed a 4-month CBPR panel study, involving baseline and 8 bi-weekly visits to collect demographic, personal, and work exposure data and spirometry measurements. We assessed the relation of IHO work activities with respiratory outcomes at baseline (linear regression) and longitudinally (fixed-effects ordinal logistic regression), adjusting for potential confounders. Results: One hundred and three IHO workers were enrolled (88% Hispanic; 46% male; age mean[±SD] 38±11 years) and completed 782 bi-weekly visits. Asthma prevalence was 8.7% and 92.6% were non-smokers. At baseline, total number of years of IHO work was negatively associated with forced expiratory volume (L) in the first second (FEV1) (ß=-0.031; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.060, -0.001). Longitudinally, positive associations were observed between pressure washing barns and coughing (odds ratio [OR]=3.8; 95%CI: 1.2, 12.3), herd changes and nasal congestion (OR=7.4; 95%CI: 1.2, 44.6) and confinement barn ventilation fans turned off and difficulty breathing (OR=11.2; 95% CI: 2.8, 44.4), eye irritation (OR=5.8; 95%CI: 1.1, 30.7), and chills (OR=5.1; 95%CI: 3.0, 8.9). Conclusions: In a predominantly Hispanic cohort of IHO workers, we observed relations between IHO work activities and adverse respiratory outcomes, particularly prolonged IHO employment and activities that aerosolize and keep waste in-barn. Challenges in exposure assessment from lack of on-IHO access and worker reluctance to enroll in cohorts can be mitigated using an empowering CBPR approach.

Burden of road traffic accidents in Nepal by calculating disability-adjusted life years

Objective To calculate the burden of road traffic accidents in Kathmandu Valley and then extrapolate this to the national level. Methods A prospective study was performed to compute the burden of road traffic accidents by quantification of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) using the Global Burden of Disease Study method on the basis of 1-year data from nine hospitals in Nepal and the Department of Forensic Medicine and cross-checked with the Nepal Traffic Directorate. Multiple methods were applied to the extrapolated population metrics of the burden of road traffic accidents in Nepal. Results The total number of years of life lived in disability, years of life lost, and DALYs in Nepal were 38,848±194, 119,935±1464, and 158,783±1658 (95% confidence interval) respectively. The number of years lost because of morbidity and death was similar in Kathmandu Valley. Most (75%) of the DALYs resulted from years of life lost in Nepal. Males accounted for 73% of DALYs. Almost half (44%) of the DALYs were contributed by the group aged 15–29 years. Conclusion This study is the first to calculate the burden of road traffic accidents in Nepal using Nepal’s own data. Nepal needs to develop and enhance its own system to identify significant public health issues so as to set national priorities for prevention of road traffic accidents.

Estimating the impact of a cancer diagnosis on life expectancy by socio-economic group for a range of cancer types in England

Background:Differences in cancer survival exist across socio-economic groups for many cancer types. Standard metrics fail to show the overall impact for patients and the population.Methods:The available data consist of a population of ∼2.5 million patients and include all patients recorded as being diagnosed with melanoma, prostate, bladder, breast, colon, rectum, lung, ovarian and stomach cancers in England between 1998 and 2013. We estimated the average loss in expectation of life per patient in years and the proportion of life lost for a range of cancer types, separately by deprivation group. In addition, estimates for the total number of years lost due to each cancer were also obtained.Results:Lung and stomach cancers result in the highest overall loss for males and females in all deprivation groups in terms of both absolute life years lost and loss as a proportion of expected life remaining. Female lung cancer patients in the least- and most-deprived group lose 14.4 and 13.8 years on average, respectively, that is translated as 86.1% and 87.3% of their average expected life years remaining. Melanoma, prostate and breast cancers have the lowest overall loss. On the basis of the number of patients diagnosed in 2013, lung cancer results in the most life years lost in total followed by breast cancer. Melanoma and bladder cancer account for the lowest total life years lost.Conclusions:There are wide differences in the impact of cancer on life expectancy across deprivation groups, and for most cancers the most affluent lose less years.

Provider and Practice Factors Associated With Emergency Physicians’ Being Named in a Malpractice Claim

We examine the association between emergency physician characteristics and practice factors with the risk of being named in a malpractice claim. We used malpractice claims along with provider, operational, and jurisdictional data from a national emergency medicine group (87 emergency departments [EDs] in 15 states from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2014) to assess the relationship between individual physician and practice variables and being named in a malpractice claim. Individual and practice factors included years in practice, emergency medicine board certification, visit admission rate, relative value units generated per hour, total patients treated as attending physician of record, working at multiple facilities, working primarily overnight shifts, patient experience data percentile, and state malpractice environment. We assessed the relationship between emergency physician and practice variables and malpractice claims, using logistic regression. Of 9,477,150 ED visits involving 1,029 emergency physicians, there were 98 malpractice claims against 90 physicians (9%). Increasing total number of years in practice (adjusted odds ratio 1.04; 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.06) and higher visit volume (adjusted odds ratio 1.09 per 1,000 visits; 95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.12) were associated with being named in a malpractice claim. No other factors were associated with malpractice claims. In this sample of emergency physicians, 1 in 11 were named in a malpractice claim during 4.5 years. Total number of years in practice and visit volume were the only identified factors associated with being named, suggesting that exposure to higher patient volumes and longer practice experience are the primary contributors to malpractice risk.

A study of the number of female editors-in-chief of dermatology journals.

IntroductionOver the past 50 years the proportion of women entering medical school has vastly increased, however there still exists a gender gap in top leadership positions, including within academic medicine. It is important to investigate the influence of women in this area, and assess change over time. The aim of the study was to assess the number of women who have acted as editors-in-chief of prominent dermatology journals over the 20th and 21st centuries.MethodsA list of 25 journals was collated based on their impact factors and prominence. Information regarding previous and current editors was obtained, compiled and analysed.ResultsOverall there have been 26 female editors and at least 128 male editors in the 25 dermatology journals, which means that less than 19% of editors-in-chief have been female. 45.8% of journals have not yet had a female editor. The percentage of female editors ranged from 0% to 100%, with only one journal having had all female editors (International Journal of Women’s Dermatology). On average, the journals had female editorship for 27.2% of the total number of years in publication. Of the 13 journals that have had a female editor, 61.5% had their first female editor after the year 2000.Discussion and ConclusionThere are various factors that influence these numbers including age of the journals and length of each editorship. It is clear that over time there has been an increase in the number of women holding these prestigious positions however gender equity has not yet been reached.

Cost-Effective Resource Allocator: A decision support tool for threatened species management

Faced with increasing rates of biodiversity loss and modest conservation budgets, it is essential that natural resource managers allocate their financial resources in a cost-effective manner and provide transparent evidence for extra funding. We developed the 'Cost-Effective Resource Allocator', a Microsoft Excel-based decision support tool to assist natural resource managers and policy makers, to prioritize the set of management strategies that maximize the total number of years that a suite of species is expected to persist given a budget constraint. We describe this tool using a case study of four locally threatened species from the Australian Commonwealth National Park of Christmas Island in the Indian Ocean. These include: a native fern (Pneumatopteris truncata), the Christmas Island Red Crab (Gecarcoidea natalis), the Golden Bosun (Phaethon lepturus fulvus), and Abbott's Booby (Papasula abbotti). Under a hypothetical budget of 8,826,000 AUD over ten years, in which all species are considered equal, our tool recommends funding: fern propagation and planting, rat control, cat control, and Yellow Crazy Ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes) survey and control. We found that the cost-effectiveness rankings of these strategies were sensitive to the importance that assessors' assigned to different species. The 'Cost-Effective Resource Allocator' can accommodate input from up to eight assessors, and analyse a maximum of 50 management strategies for 30 species.

Migraine and vascular disease biomarkers: A population-based case-control study.

Background The underpinnings of the migraine-stroke association remain uncertain, but endothelial activation is a potential mechanism. We evaluated the association of migraine and vascular disease biomarkers in a community-based population. Methods Participants (300 women, 117 men) were recruited as a part of the Dutch CAMERA 1 (Cerebral Abnormalities in Migraine, an Epidemiologic Risk Analysis) study. Participants were aged 30-60 (mean 48) years, 155 migraine had with aura (MA), 128 migraine without aura (MO), and 134 were controls with no severe headaches. Plasma concentrations of fibrinogen, Factor II, D-dimer, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), and von Willebrand factor antigen were compared between groups, also stratifying by sex. Results Fibrinogen and hs-CRP were elevated in migraineurs compared to controls. In logistic regression analyses, MO and MA had increased likelihood of elevated fibrinogen, and MA had increased likelihood of elevated Factor II and hs-CRP. Fibrinogen and Factor II were associated with MA in women but not men. In the migraine subgroup, the total number of years of aura, but not headache, predicted elevated hs-CRP, and the average number of aura, but not headache, attacks predicted all biomarkers but Factor II. Conclusions Elevated vascular biomarkers were associated with migraine, particularly MA, as well as with years of aura and number of aura attacks.

Site fidelity and movement of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the western Gulf of Alaska as revealed by photo-identification

We describe feeding-site fidelity in terms of the rate of annual return by individual humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae (Borowski, 1781)) to Kodiak Archipelago and Shumagin Islands feeding areas and the rate of exchange between these Gulf of Alaska feeding aggregations. Individual whales were photo-identified in both regions between 1999 and 2015 during vessel surveys, either throughout the feeding season (Kodiak region) or in brief 7- to 10-day windows (Shumagin Islands). Feeding-site fidelity was assessed in terms of individuals’ annual return rate, sighting interval, total number of years sighted, and movement between feeding areas. We found similarly high degrees of site fidelity in both regions and limited movement of individuals between them, suggesting that the Shumagin Islands and Kodiak Archipelago represent distinct feeding aggregations. Results did not appear affected by temporal differences in sampling strategy in these study areas.

The Role of Mid-Career Nurses in Educating New Nurses: from the Perspective of Self-Efficacy

This study sought to clarify the relationship between the educational role behavior of mid-career nurses toward new nurses, and their sense of self-efficacy. Educational role behaviors of mid-career nurses toward new nurses were set to 13 items related to career ladder and previous researches. To identify the relationship between the sense of self-efficacy in mid-career nurses and performing these 13 behaviors in their educational role toward new nurses, we had 310 mid-career nurses complete a questionnaire survey and analyzed the resulting data using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, Mann-Whitney U test, and Kruskal-Wallis test. We found that mid-career nurses who had served as preceptors (senior nurses who teach practical nursing skills to new nurses on a one-on-one basis) four or more times had a significantly higher sense of self-efficacy than those who had served as preceptors three times or less for four behaviors only (1. demonstrating specific methods when instructing new nurses on various support methods, 7. being receptive to new nurses, 11. striving for professional self-improvement in practical nursing as a mid-career nurse, and 12. co-ordinating interpersonal relationships in the organization). No relationships were observed between the total number of years of nursing experience and the number of years of working at the station concerned. For all 13 educational role behaviors, Spearman's rank correlation coefficients of 0.5-0.7 indicated a significant relationship between implementation of the educational role behavior and a sense of self-efficacy. We believe that the high sense of self-efficacy that results from the performance of the 13 behaviors by mid-career nurses in their role of teaching new nurses leads them to demonstrate these behaviors in their everyday practice. It was also found that experience alone did not mean that mid-career nurses could adopt educational role behaviors with little burden, suggesting that support is universally necessary, regardless of experience.

Optimizing the Timing of HIV Screening as Part of Routine Medical Care.

US federal guidelines recommend that medical providers test all adolescents and adults for HIV infection at least once before the age of 64. The wide age range included in these guidelines may limit their utility and impact. We created an arithmetic model to estimate how HIV screening at different ages would impact the total number of years of undiagnosed HIV infection in the population and the number of persons developing clinical manifestations of HIV/AIDS. Our base case model assumed that age of infection in the screened population was the same as the estimated age of infection among all persons diagnosed with HIV in the United States in 2010. We parameterized a second model assuming age of infection was similar to the younger age distribution observed in African Americans. In the base case model, the number of years of undiagnosed HIV infection and number of persons with clinical manifestations of HIV/AIDS were both minimized by screening at age 34. If age of infection was similar to that estimated to occur among African Americans, testing at age 24 and 27 would minimize the number of years of undiagnosed infection and clinical cases, respectively. For both parameterization scenarios, testing between the ages of 21 and 38 resulted in outcomes within 10% of the model's estimated optimal age for screening. Focusing HIV screening on a narrower age range than is currently recommended may improve the impact of routine HIV screening efforts.

Sport participation in high school and anxiety symptoms in young adulthood

The longitudinal associations between sport participation and symptoms of four anxiety sub-types (panic disorder, generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), social phobia, agoraphobia) were assessed. Participants (n = 781; 45% male; Mage = 20.34 ± 0.71 years) provided data on sport participation over five years of high school and measures of anxiety three years post high school. Sport participation was analyzed both as the total number of years playing sports over five years and the number of years playing team or individual sports. In logistic regression analyses, number of years playing sports was associated with fewer panic disorder and agoraphobia symptoms in young adulthood. Further, number of years playing team sports was associated with fewer symptoms of panic and agoraphobia, while number of years playing individual sports was associated with fewer social phobia symptoms. The results suggest that consistent involvement in sport during high school is beneficial for mental health. Furthermore, this study emphasizes the importance of studying each anxiety symptom subtype as a unique outcome.

Quantification of hazard prediction ability at hazard prediction training (Kiken-Yochi Training: KYT) by free-response receiver-operating characteristic (FROC) analysis

The ability to predict hazards in possible situations in a general X-ray examination room created for Kiken-Yochi training (KYT) is quantified by use of free-response receiver-operating characteristics (FROC) analysis for determining whether the total number of years of clinical experience, involvement in general X-ray examinations, occupation, and training each have an impact on the hazard prediction ability. Twenty-three radiological technologists (RTs) (years of experience: 2–28), four nurses (years of experience: 15–19), and six RT students observed 53 scenes of KYT: 26 scenes with hazardous points (hazardous points are those that might cause injury to patients) and 27 scenes without points. Based on the results of these observations, we calculated the alternative free-response receiver-operating characteristic (AFROC) curve and the figure of merit (FOM) to quantify the hazard prediction ability. The results showed that the total number of years of clinical experience did not have any impact on hazard prediction ability, whereas recent experience with general X-ray examinations greatly influenced this ability. In addition, the hazard prediction ability varied depending on the occupations of the observers while they were observing the same scenes in KYT. The hazard prediction ability of the radiologic technology students was improved after they had undergone patient safety training. This proposed method with FROC observer study enabled the quantification and evaluation of the hazard prediction capability, and the application of this approach to clinical practice may help to ensure the safety of examinations and treatment in the radiology department.