Total Crime Research Articles

The influence of neighborhood factors on biological measures of stress in home‐dwelling multi‐ethnic older adults with dementia

AbstractBackgroundRecently researchers have begun to examine the possible biological pathways through which neighborhood context may affect the health of vulnerable residents. Although stress is often hypothesized to contribute to the effects of neighborhoods on health, no studies have investigated associations of neighborhood characteristics and stress biomarkers in home dwelling persons living with dementia (PLwD). Identifying these biological pathways is fundamental to increasing our understanding of how neighborhoods can influence health and well being in vulnerable residents including those with dementia.MethodsGuided by the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities Framework, this pilot study examined pathways linking both micro (individual level) and macro (neighborhood) level factors in home dwelling PLwD. The model was used to determine what community level factors (density, total crime index, median home value, and noise index) were associated with measures of salivary cortisol controlling for sociodemographics, dementia stage, and comorbid illnesses. The sample included 100 participants: 30 Whites, 39 African Americans, and 31 Latinos with an average age of 73.6. Saliva samples were collected using Salivette collection tubes over two days and stored at −20 °C until analysis.ResultsResidents of neighborhoods with lower housing value and higher noise and density were disproportionately composed of racial/ethnic minorities (with the patterning for Hispanics more pronounced than for blacks.) Significantly lower levels of cortisol at wakeup and a less steep decline was associated with adverse neighborhood environments (higher noise, crime, density, and lower housing value). The strongest relationship between neighborhood characteristics and cortisol levels was found for neighborhood crime. Individuals with dementia residing in higher crime neighborhoods had significant lower levels of cortisol at wakeup and with less pronounced initial declines than those residing in low crime neighborhoods.ConclusionGiven that lower cortisol at wakening and slower rate of decline in cortisol across the day are associated with adverse health outcomes, our analyses can inform the identification of risky communities that are most likely to benefit from health‐supportive community interventions to minimize the negative impacts of unsupportive community environment. These pilot results suggest that further investigation of the effects of neighborhood contexts on stress biomarkers and health outcomes in PLwD is warranted.

The Influence of Temporal Specification on the Identification of Crime Hot Spots for Program Evaluations: A Test of Longitudinal Stability in Crime Patterns

Longitudinal studies from the criminology of place suggest crime hot spots are repeatedly found in the same locations within cities over extended periods of time. Program evaluations of hot spots policing interventions often use much shorter temporal windows to define hot spots. This study examines if stability of patterns is still found when using short and intermediate periods of time to measure crime hot spots. We examined 765,235 total crime incidents reported to the Cincinnati Police Department from 1997 to 2016. These incidents were geocoded to 13,189 street segments. We created measures of crime hot spots based on varying temporal periods using three different strategies: pooled observations, group-based trajectory modeling, and k-means clustering. These measures were compared using techniques associated with survival analyses to determine the influence of temporal specification on the retrospective identification of crime hot spots. Our findings suggest regardless of the temporal specification, most street segments identified as crime hot spots remained crime hot spots across the observed follow-up periods. There was still much variability in patterns based upon temporal specifications and the use of additional years of incident report data did not uniformly provide an improved understanding of which street segments remained crime hot spots. Program evaluations of hot spots policing strategies do not need to use extended periods of time to observe stability in crime hot spots. The criminology of place should provide more attention to the topic of temporal specification and continue exploring the utility of crime hot spots.

Victim-Offender Overlap in Violent Crime: Targeting Crime Harm in a Canadian Suburb

Research QuestionTo what extent are victims of violent crime also offenders, and vice versa, with what concentrations of total crime harm across each person who has ever been reported as both a victim and an offender within the study period?DataWe analyse 27,233 unique individuals who were the subject of violent crime reports to the Peel Regional Police Service in Canada, either as offenders, victims, or both, for crimes reported between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2016. Each individual linked to a violent crime in this period was tracked for the 730 days subsequent to the first crime report naming them.MethodsWe coded each crime with the Canadian Crime Severity Index (CCSI) to calculate victimization and offending harm totals across all incidents for each individual. We then computed each individual’s ratio of total CCSI from victimization to total CCSI from victimization. Based on the distribution of these ratios of CCSI from all offending to all victimization, we show how police can distinguish three categories of victim-offenders (VOs): predominant victims (PVs), predominant offenders (POs), and balanced victim-offenders (BVOs), as well as the single-category absolute offenders (AOs) and absolute victims (AVs).FindingsAcross all 27,233 individuals tracked, 17,138 (64%) appeared first as victims, and 10,095 (36%) appeared first as suspects. Of those appearing first as victims, 997 (6%) are linked to a violent crime as an offender within 730 days. Among those appearing first as offenders, 1019 (10%) are subsequently reported as victimized within 730 days. The total of this combined group (VOs) = 1665 individuals (6% of the entire population). Using a 3.5:1 ratio of victim to offender harm, we subdivide the 1665 VOs further into 322 predominant victims, 280 predominant offenders, and 1063 balanced victim-offenders. The 20% of individuals (n = 5455) with highest harm are linked to 71% of overall harm. On average, predominant offenders (who have also been victimized) are associated with 2.7 times as much harm as absolute offenders, and predominant victims (who have also been offenders) have three times as much harm as absolute victims.ConclusionsThis research shows how combining records of victimization and offending to target higher harm levels with greater potential benefits for police investments in harm reduction and prevention.

Effect of sentencing reform on racial and ethnic disparities in involvement with the criminal justice system: The case of California's proposition 47

AbstractWe analyze the disparate effects of a recent California sentencing reform on the arrest, booking, and incarceration rates experienced by California residents from different racial and ethnic groups. In November 2014, California voters passed state Proposition 47 that redefined a series of felony and “wobbler” offenses (offenses that can be charged as either a felony or misdemeanor) as straight misdemeanors, causing an immediate 15% decline in total drug arrests, an approximate 20% decline in total property crime arrests, and shifts in the composition of arrests away from felonies towards misdemeanors. Using microdata on the universe of arrests in the state in conjunction with demographic data from the American Community Survey, we document a substantial narrowing in interracial differences in overall arrest rates and arrest rates by offense type, with very large declines in the interracial arrest rate gaps for felony drug offenses. We see declines in bookings rates for all groups (conditional on being arrested), though we find a larger decrease for white arrestees. This relatively greater decline for white arrests is largely explained by differences in the distribution of arrests across recorded offenses. Despite the widening of racial gaps in the conditional booking rate, we observe substantial declines in overall booked arrests that are larger for African Americans and Hispanics relative to Whites and Asians. For some offenses (felony drug offenses), interracial disparities in jail booking rates narrow by nearly half. Finally, we use data from the American Community Survey to analyze changes in the proportion incarcerated on any given day and how these changes vary by race and ethnicity. For these results, we present trends for the time period spanning the larger set of policy reforms that have been implemented in the state since 2011. We observe sizable declines in the overall incarceration rate for African Americans, with the largest declines observed for African American males. The one quarter decline in total correctional populations in the state coincided with sizable narrowing in interracial differences in incarceration rates.

Minor covid-19 association with crime in Sweden

The covid-19 disease has a large impact on life across the globe, and this could potentially include impacts on crime. The present study describes how crime has changed in Sweden during ten weeks after the government started to implement interventions to reduce spread of the disease. Sweden has undertaken smaller interventions than many other countries and is therefore a particularly interesting case to study. The first major interventions in Sweden were implemented in the end of week 11 (March 12th) in the year 2020, and we analyze police reported crimes through week 21 (ending May 24th). Descriptive statistics are provided relative to expected levels with 95% confidence intervals for eight crime types. We find that total crime, assaults, pickpocketing and burglary have decreased significantly, personal robberies and narcotics crime are unchanged. Vandalism possibly increased somewhat but is hard to draw any firm conclusions on. The reductions are fairly small for most crime types, in the 5–20% range, with pickpocketing being the biggest exception noting a 59% drop relative to expected levels.

Community monitoring and crime: Evidence from Chicago's Safe Passage Program

This paper investigates the effect of community-based monitoring on crime in the context of a school safety initiative that employed community members to monitor city blocks during students' travel to and from school. Although we find that total crime decreased by 17% relative to neighboring non-treated blocks, these main effects are not the complete story. We find evidence of treatment spillovers in blocks closest to treated areas, but we also uncover cross-crime substitution within treated blocks, intertemporal reallocation of crime to non-monitored periods, and spatial displacement of crime into areas farther away from treated blocks. Our estimates of the benefit-cost ratio associated with each additional civilian-year of community monitoring are much larger than traditional estimates of each additional police officer-year.

Factors correlated with drug use for constipation: perspectives from the 2016 open Japanese National Database

BackgroundThe prevalence of chronic constipation is increased in females and with age or environmental (low temperature), racial, socioeconomic, and habitual risk factors. The impact of low outside temperature on constipation drug use remains unclear. Here, we investigated risk factors for constipation drug use by evaluating data from the Japanese National Database.MethodsThis ecological study used the 2016 open Japanese National Database of health insurance claims (prescriptions) to acquire the number of health insurance prescription claims in all 47 prefectures for drugs to relieve constipation, antihypertensives, vasodilators, as well as medical check-ups and questionnaire responses. Internet survey on room temperatures in 2010 were also used. Pearson correlation coefficients (r) between the number of population-based prescriptions for each item were calculated and multiple linear regression analysis (MLR) was performed.ResultsPrescriptions for magnesium laxatives significantly correlated with aging (r = 0.58), vasodilators (r = 0.53), being female (r = 0.43), antihypertensives (r = 0.39), and inversely with eating ≤2 h before bedtime (r = − 0.37), total crime rate (r = − 0.33), insomnia (r = − 0.33), and population density (r = − 0.31). Stimulant laxatives (sennoside and picosulfate) were significantly correlated with antihypertensives (r = 0.79), aging (r = 0.69), vasodilators (r = 0.67), and being female (r = 0.56), and were inversely associated with average outside temperature (r = − 0.62), total crime rate (r = − 0.52), average income (r = − 0.51), and 30-min of vigorous exercise (r = − 0.44). Fecal interventions were significantly correlated with aging (r = 0.55) and female (r = 0.59), and inversely correlated with population density (r = − 0.41) and total crime rate (r = − 0.38). MLR analysis identified aging as the only significant risk factor for magnesium laxative use (partial slope [β] = 1241.0). Female sex and antihypertensives were independent risk factors for stimulant laxative prescriptions (β = 44,547.0 and 0.2) and average outside temperature and 30-min of vigorous exercise were independent preventive factors (β = − 616.8 and − 219.1).ConclusionWe identified associations of magnesium laxatives with aging, stimulant laxatives with female sex, antihypertensives, low outside temperature and less 30 min of vigorous exercise.

The impact of crime on apartment prices in Hamburg, Germany

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the impact of crime on apartment prices for Hamburg, Germany, for the years 2012 to 2017.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use a panel data setting with fixed effects estimators and temporal lags to moderate the endogeneity concerns related to crime. The authors consider the effect of total crime, violent and property crime and some sub-categories of crime.FindingsThe estimates show that it takes two to three years for prices to react, with the longer run elasticity reaching −0.12 for total crime, −0.15 for property crime and −0.06 for violent crime. The elasticities are much larger in high-crime areas (−0.22 for total crime, −0.28 and −0.09 for property and violent crime) and elevated also in low-income areas.Social implicationsThe finding that property crime matters more in terms of quantitative impact for housing values than violent crime provides reasonable grounds for rethinking the resource allocation of public spending on crime clearance and prevention in Germany. Far more emphasis on preventing property crime appears in order and especially so in the lower income or higher crime areas, which are significantly more affected by crime and in particular property crime than those in high income or low crime areas.Originality/valueThe estimates for Hamburg provide the first detailed results of the impact of crime on real estate prices in Germany. It is also the first study for Continental Europe using panel data.

Does increased access to home mortgage money reduce local crime rates? Evidence from San Diego County

This study provides estimates of the impact of increased access to home mortgage credit on local crime rates and uses national home mortgage loan origination volume as an instrument for local home mortgage loan origination volume. The focus of the study is San Diego County from 2007-Q1 to 2013-Q1. The regression estimates indicate that increased access to home mortgage loans during this time period had a statistically significant negative impact on local crime rates: the baseline specification suggests that a ten percentage point increase in the growth in home mortgage loan originations decreases the growth in total crime incidents by approximately 2.75 percentage points. This finding is robust to different model specifications.

Does higher educational attainment imply less crime? Evidence from the Indian states

PurposeThe primary purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the impact of educational attainment on crime rates across 33 Indian states over the period 2001 to 2013. This paper also examines the role of various macroeconomic, socio-economic and demographic factors in determining the variation of crimes in India.Design/methodology/approachFirst, this paper provides a representative theoretical model and discusses the possible relationship between crime and education. Second, the paper applies a dynamic panel data (DPD) model to extract more precise, unbiased and reliable estimates of the effect of education in abating different crime rates. The main advantage of using the dynamic panel model is to address the problem of endogeneity in some regressors and capture the time persistent effect of education on crime.FindingsEmpirical findings reveal that a 1% increase in gross enrolment ratio leads to the reduction of total crime by 8%. However, a unique finding identifies a positive association between tertiary education and economic crime. This finding further goes against the general belief that criminals tend to be less educated than non-criminals.Practical implicationsThis paper recommends that instead of punishment and mandatory law enforcement for offenders, increase in government expenditure and different educational attainment ratios can go a long way to combat crime in India, which has posed a serious threat to the stability of society. Furthermore, utilizing the information on offenders' educational attainment in examining the crime rates can be a future research agenda for policymakers.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the empirical debate of ‘crime-education nexus’ by examining the role of education on crime in India. This study is the first of its kind that focuses on the aspects of crime and education more recently and investigates the relationship between crime and education due to the recent changes in educational attainment ratios and crime rate.

P-value Problems? An Examination of Evidential Value in Criminology

This study aims to assess the evidential value of the knowledgebase in criminology after accounting for the presence of potential Type I errors. The present study examines the distribution of 1248 p-values (that inform 84 statistically significant outcomes across 26 systematic reviews) in meta-analyses on the topic of crime and justice published by the Campbell Collaboration (CC) using p-curve analysis. The distribution of all CC p-values have a significant cluster of p-values immediately below 0.05, which is indicative of p-hacking. Evidential value (right skewed p-curves) is detected in most meta-analytic topic areas but not motivational interviewing (substance use outcome), sex offender treatment (sexual/general recidivism), police legitimacy (procedural justice), street-level drug law enforcement (total crime), and treatment effectiveness in secure corrections (juvenile recidivism). More studies, especially carefully designed and implemented randomized experiments with sufficiently large sample sizes, are needed before we are able to affirm the presence of evidential value and replicability of studies in all CC topic areas with confidence.

The Relationship between the War on Drugs and Crime

Researchers and policymakers have long considered the War on Drugs with respect to mass incarceration, monetary cost, and impact on minority communities. This paper seeks to take this evaluation one step further and determine whether the War on Drugs policies impact total crime, violent crime, and property crime. Panel data from the years of 1975 to 2002 tracks variables such as drug arrests, determinate sentencing, habitual drug offender laws, minimum sentencing, severity levels for cocaine and marijuana possession, police presence, prison admissions, and more throughout the fifty states. In the OLS, fixed effects, and random effects models, an increased police presence and additional prison admissions contribute to higher crime rates. Increased drug arrests, resulting directly from the War on Drugs, consistently increase overall, violent, and property crime, with significance in every panel data regression. With the exception of determinate sentencing, individual War on Drugs laws, such as minimum sentences, habitual drug laws, and severity levels have mixed results, with no consistent effect on crime rates.

Community Monitoring and Crime: Evidence from Chicago's Safe Passage Program

This paper investigates the effect of community-based monitoring on crime in the context of a school safety initiative that employed community members to monitor city blocks during students' travel to and from school. Although we find that total crime decreased by 17% relative to neighboring non-treated blocks, these main effects are not the complete story. We find evidence of treatment spillovers in blocks closest to treated areas, but we also uncover cross-crime substitution within treated blocks, intertemporal reallocation of crime to non-monitored periods, and spatial displacement of crime into areas farther away from treated blocks.

Why Bail Reform is Safe and Effective: The Case of Cook County

Cook County’s bail reform has resulted in increased use of non-financial pretrial release options (I Bonds) and declines in the monetary cost of bail set for detained felony defendants. These two impacts have served to reduce the number of defendants admitted to the Cook County jail and the duration of their incarceration. Furthermore, the number of people sentenced to state prison has been significantly reduced. As a result, the size of both the Cook County pretrial population and the Illinois state prison population has been significantly reduced. These impacts have occurred as the number of total crimes and violent crimes in Cook County have continued to decline. Claims by critics that crime has increased as a result of the bail reform effort have not been properly tested, are not credible and should be ignored.

The Impact of an Experimental Guaranteed Income on Crime and Violence

AbstractWould unconditional cash payments reduce crime and violence? This paper examines data on crime and violence in the context of an understudied social experiment from the late 1970s called the Manitoba Basic Annual Income Experiment, or Mincome. We combine town-level crime statistics for all medium-sized Canadian Prairie towns with town-level socio-demographic data from the census to study how an experimental guaranteed income affected both violent crime and total crime. We find a significant negative relationship between Mincome and both outcomes. We also decompose total crime and analyze its main components, property crime and “other” crime, and find a significant negative relationship between Mincome and property crime. While the impact on property crime is theoretically straightforward, we close by speculating on the mechanisms that might link the availability of guaranteed annual income payments to a decline in violence, focusing on the mechanisms that shape patterns of inter-partner violence.

Effect of public transit on crime: evidence from SEPTA strikes in Philadelphia

We use the temporary closings of subway stations in Philadelphia to examine the effects of public transit on crime in the nearby communities. The Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA), a regional public transportation authority in Philadelphia, has experienced two labor strikes occurring in 2009 and 2016. During these two strikes, public transit was disrupted for nearly 1 week. We used the closings of 47 subway stations during strikes to evaluate the place-based effect of public transit on crime. We also examined whether these effects varied with the ridership level in each station. Total crime decreased by 38% within 100 m of the stations when subway stations were closed due to the strike and by 10% within 500 m. The primary drivers of the decrease were violent crimes, including assault and robbery. However, there is no obvious relationship between the closings of stations and the change in property crimes and mischief. In addition, crimes in stations with higher ridership declined less than those in stations with medium ridership when strikes occurred. Public transit in Philadelphia appears to be associated with elevated violent crime in the surrounding community. Areas around subway stations may require greater security to control crime during its operational hours. Passengers may serve as guardians to deter some crimes when the public transit is operational.

Migrants and Crime in Sweden in the Twenty-First Century

In 2005, the Swedish Crime Prevention Agency published a report about the link between immigration and crime. Since then, no comprehensive study has been conducted even though Sweden has experienced a large influx of migrants in combination with a rising crime rate. This study conducted by Göran Adamson and Tino Sanandaji is the first purely descriptive scientific investigation on the matter in fifteen years. The investigation (from 2002 to 2017) covers seven distinct categories of crime, and distinguishes between seven regions of origin. Based on 33 per cent of the population (2017), 58 per cent of those suspect for total crime on reasonable grounds are migrants. Regarding murder, manslaughter and attempted murder, the figures are 73 per cent, while the proportion of robbery is 70 per cent. Non-registered migrants are linked to about 13 per cent of total crime. Given the fact that this group is small, crime propensity among non-registered migrants is significant.

Law Incentives for Juvenile Recruiting by Drug Trafficking Gangs: Empirical Evidence From Rio de Janeiro

We evaluate the deterrence effects of the age of criminal responsibility on total drug trafficking and homicide crimes per age, based on a quasi-experiment generated by differences in punishment severity for these crimes prescribed by the Statute of the Child and Adolescent and by the Penal Code in Brazil. To this end, information from arrests conducted by the civil and military police of the state of Rio de Janeiro in 2016 and 2017 is used to estimate the local effects of treatment through a Regression Discontinuity Design. Instead of using recidivism data and/or grouping crimes with distinct punishment severity, we use as outcome variable the total number of arrests (crimes) per age for drug trafficking and homicides, which are the most common crimes related to organized crime in Rio de Janeiro. The results indicate that the increase in punishment severity generated by the Penal Code can reduce the number of drug trafficking-related crimes by 9% and homicides by 37%. Through a simple cost-benefit analysis, we suggest that increasing the punishment severity for minors who commit homicide could reduce juvenile’s engagement in a criminal career associated with gangs and generate gains in social well-being.

Modeling total crime and the affecting factors in Central Java using geographically weighted regression

Analysing the relationship between number of crime cases and affecting factors became an interesting research topic over the last ten years. The total number of crime in Indonesia did not show a consistent decrease. In order to upgrade people safeness quality, the government need to know the factors influence people committing crime acts. Rather than using classical regression analysis, geographically weighted regression (GWR) was preferable since it gave a better representative model by effectively resolve spatial non-stationary problem which is generally exist in spatial data of social phenomenon. Spatial non-stationary is a situation when the relationship between variables are significantly different in each location of observation point, so that classic regression analysis will result a misleading interpretation in some location. GWR handled the spatial non-stationary problem by generating a single model in each observation point which allow different relationship to exist at different point in space. This study used number of crime cases (y) as the dependent variable and the factors which affect the number of crime cases as independent variables that consist of the number of illiterates (X1), the number of unemployed (X2), the number of poor population (X3), population density (X4), the number of victims of drug (X5). This study used secondary data collected by POLRI, BPS and Indonesian Ministry of Social Affairs in Central Java during 2015. GWR generated model for 35 city/regency in Central Java.

Don’t Shoot! The Impact of Historical African American Protest on Police Killings of Civilians

There is a long-standing history of protests in response to police killings of African American citizens. However, it remains a largely unanswered question as to whether these protest events have had any impact on subsequent police killings of African American civilians. To answer this question, we turn to the over 700 racial uprisings that occurred in the 1960s and early 1970s that were largely triggered by negative and often violent interactions between the African American community and police. To determine the impact of racial uprisings on police killings of civilians, we conduct an event-study analysis with a robust set of controls. We employ data on civilian deaths by legal intervention by race, county-level uprising occurrence, and county demographic characteristics. We take advantage of variation in the location and timing of a county’s first uprising to determine the impact of uprisings on police killings of civilians. Our identification strategy relies on pre-existing trends in deaths by legal intervention being uncorrelated with the date of the first uprising in a county. The results show that counties saw a marked increase in both non-white and white deaths due to legal intervention in the years immediately following an uprising. This initial increase is substantially larger for non-whites relative to white civilians. Deaths due to legal intervention for non-white and white civilians diverge over the medium-to-long run. Non-white deaths resulting from legal intervention remain elevated after nearly a decade while deaths of whites revert to their pre-existing trend after a handful of years. Additional analysis regarding the impact of uprisings on policing shows that total crime and police employment do not change in a significant manner over the long run, however, officers are more likely to be killed or injured on duty. The results clearly show that historical protest resulted in an increase in civilian deaths by legal intervention regardless of race in the short-run and a seemingly permanent increase in killings of non-white over the medium-to-long run. These results paint a depressing picture in which uprisings represent a structural change in police-civilian relations, adversely affecting white civilians in the short-run and non-white civilians in the short and long-run.