Top Income Shares Research Articles

The minimum wage, bargaining power, and the top income share

Much of the argument in support of the minimum wage is its ability to lift workers out of poverty. But the minimum wage also has the potential to influence the relative bargaining power between (non-union) workers and firms and historically this was one of its main purposes. In this paper, we review how the minimum wage can improve workers’ bargaining position. We use a state-level panel data set that exploits differences in the minimum wage at the state level to show that higher minimum wages, along with unionization rates and higher top marginal tax rates, are successful in reducing overall income inequality, mainly by reducing the share of income going to the top 1% of the income distribution.

Top Incomes and Human Well-Being Around the World

The share of income held by the top 1 percent in many countries around the world has been rising persistently over the last 30 years. But we continue to know little about how the rising top income shares affect human well-being. This study combines the latest data to examine the relationship between top income share and different dimensions of subjective well-being. We find top income shares to be significantly correlated with lower life evaluation and higher levels of negative emotional well-being, but not positive emotional well-being. The results are robust to household income, individual’s socio-economic status, and macroeconomic environment controls.

Top Incomes and Human Well-Being Around the World

The share of income held by the top 1 percent in many countries around the world has been rising persistently over the last 30 years. But we continue to know little about how the rising top income shares affect human well-being. This study combines the latest data to examine the relationship between top income share and different dimensions of subjective well-being. We find top income shares to be significantly correlated with lower life evaluation and higher levels of negative emotional well-being, but not positive emotional well-being. The results are robust to household income, individual's socio-economic status, and macroeconomic environment controls.

Top Income Shares, Business Profits, and Effective Tax Rates in Contemporary Chile

We contribute to research on inequality and world top incomes by presenting the first calculations of Chilean top income shares and effective tax rates using individual tax return microdata from 2005 and 2009. We pay special attention to business income, which dominates at the top. Our analysis includes not only distributed profits, but also the large proportion of accrued profits retained by firms, which are rarely analyzed given the difficulty of identifying individual owners. Our most conservative top 1 percent income‐share estimate is 15 percent—the fifth highest in the top incomes literature. When distributed profits are adjusted for evasion, the top 1 percent share reaches 22–26 percent. When we broaden the income concept to include accrued profits, which we impute to taxpayers using ownership shares calculated from business tax forms, the top 1 percent share increases to a minimum of 23 percent. Despite this impressive income concentration, the top 1 percent pays modest average effective income‐tax rates of 15–16 percent.

Minimum Distance Testing and Top Income Shares in Korea

We study Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness of fit tests for evaluating distributional hypotheses where unknown parameters need to be fitted. Following work of Pollard (1979), our approach uses a Cramer-von Mises minimum distance estimator for parameter estimation. The asymptotic null distribution of the resulting test statistic is represented by invariance principle arguments as a functional of a Brownian bridge in a simple regression format for which asymptotic critical values are readily delivered by simulations. Asymptotic power is examined under fixed and local alternatives and finite sample performance of the test is evaluated in simulations. The test is applied to measure top income shares using Korean income tax return data over 2007 to 2012. When the data relate to the upper 0.1% or higher tail of the income distribution, the conventional assumption of a Pareto tail distribution cannot be rejected. But the Pareto tail hypothesis is rejected for the top 1.0% or 0.5% incomes at the 5% significance level.

Power, Markets, and Top Income Shares

The rise of the super-rich has attracted much political and academic attention in recent years. However, to date there have been few attempts to explain the cross-national variation in the recent rise of very top incomes. Drawing on the World Top Incomes Database, we study the income share of the top 1% in almost all current postindustrial democracies from 1975 to 2012. We find that extreme income concentration at the very top is a predominantly political phenomenon, not the outcome of economic changes. Top income shares are largely unrelated to economic growth, increased knowledge-intensive production, export competitiveness, market size, financialization, and wealth accumulation. Instead, they are driven by various political and policy changes that reflect a decline in the relative power and resources of labor, such as union density and centralization, secular-right governments, and cuts in top marginal income tax rates as well as in public spending on education.

Top Income Shares and Mortality: Evidence from Advanced Countries

This article examines the effect of top income shares on crude death and infant mortality rates. We use balanced panel data that covers nine advanced countries over the period 1952-1998. Top income shares are measured as the shares of pre-tax income going to the richest 0.1 per cent, 1 per cent, and 10 per cent of the population. The main finding is that there is no overall relationship between top income shares and mortality measures. We also estimate separate effects on both female and male mortality rates. If anything, these estimates suggest that the male death rate is negatively correlated with inequality.

The Rise and Decline of General Laws of Capitalism

Thomas Piketty's (2013) book, Capital in the 21st Century, follows in the tradition of the great classical economists, like Marx and Ricardo, in formulating general laws of capitalism to diagnose and predict the dynamics of inequality. We argue that general economic laws are unhelpful as a guide to understanding the past or predicting the future because they ignore the central role of political and economic institutions, as well as the endogenous evolution of technology, in shaping the distribution of resources in society. We use regression evidence to show that the main economic force emphasized in Piketty's book, the gap between the interest rate and the growth rate, does not appear to explain historical patterns of inequality (especially, the share of income accruing to the upper tail of the distribution). We then use the histories of inequality of South Africa and Sweden to illustrate that inequality dynamics cannot be understood without embedding economic factors in the context of economic and political institutions, and also that the focus on the share of top incomes can give a misleading characterization of the true nature of inequality.

What Do We Know About the Labor Share and the Profit Share? Part III: Measures and Structural Factors

Economic theory frequently assumes constant factor shares and often treats the topic as secondary. We will show that this is a mistake by deriving the first high-frequency measure of the US labor share for the whole economy. We find that the labor share has held remarkably steady indeed, but that the quasi-stability masks a sizable composition effect that is detrimental to labor. The wage component is falling fast and the stability is achieved by an increasing share of benefits and top incomes. Using NIPA and Piketty-Saez top-income data, we estimate that the US bottom 99 percent labor share has fallen 15 points since 1980. This amounts to a transfer of $1.8 trillion from labor to capital in 2012 alone and brings the US labor share to its 1920s level. The trend is similar in Europe and Japan. The decrease is even larger when the CPI is used instead of the GDP deflator in the calculation of the labor share.

Banking Crises in the US: The Response of Top Income Shares in a Historical Perspective

This paper examines the response of the national income shares accruing to different groups within the richest decile in the US to the occurrence of major systemic banking crises since the beginning of the twentieth century. The findings suggest that the impact of banking crises on the US top income shares is mostly small in magnitude. Indeed, the estimated total effect of crises is never bigger than one standard deviation of a specific top shares under investigation. Results are robust to a variety of checks and the analysis also highlights interesting heterogeneity across different income groups. Additional results also point out that the short-term impact of crises may be also temporary in nature as top shares recover faster in the aftermath of a shock. These findings lend indirect support to the idea that only substantial changes in government policies and institutional frameworks can bring about radical changes in income distribution.

Globalization and Top Income Shares

How does globalization affect the income gaps between the rich and the poor? This paper presents a new piece of empirical evidence showing that access to the global market, either through exporting or through multinational production, is associated with a higher executive-to-worker pay ratio within the firm. It then builds a model with heterogeneous firms, occupational choice, and executive compensation to model analytically and assess quantitatively the impact of globalization on the income gaps between the rich and the poor. The key mechanism is that the “gains from trade” are not distributed evenly within the same firm. The compensation of an executive is positively linked to the size of the firm, while the wage paid to the workers is determined in a country-wide labor market. Any extra profit earned in the foreign markets benefits the executives more than the average worker. Counterfactual exercises suggest that this new channel is quantitatively important for the observed surge in top income shares in the data. Using the changes in the volume of trade and multinational firm sales, the model can explain around 33 percent of the surge in top income shares over the past two decades in the United States.

Conditional Status Quo Bias and Top Income Shares: How U.S. Political Institutions Have Benefited the Rich

This article develops and tests a model of conditional status quo bias and American inequality. We find that institutional features that bias policy outcomes toward the status quo have played a central role in the path of inequality. Using time-series analysis of top income shares during the post-Depression period, we identify the Senate as a key actor in the politics of income inequality. Our findings suggest that the supermajoritarian nature of the Senate and policy stagnation, when coupled with economic and social factors that produce rising inequality, create a situation in which inequality becomes difficult to reverse.

Asset Pricing and the 1%

We show that in a general equilibrium model with heterogeneity in risk aversion or belief, shifting wealth from an agent who holds comparatively fewer stocks to one who holds more reduces the equity premium. Since empirically the rich hold more stocks than do the poor, the top income share should predict subsequent excess stock market returns. Consistent with our theory, we find that when the income share of the top 1% income earners in the U.S. rises above trend by one percentage point, subsequent one year market excess returns decline on average by about 3-5%. This negative relation is robust to (i) controlling for classic return predictors such as the price-dividend and consumption-wealth ratios and (ii) predicting out-of-sample. Cross-country panel regressions suggest that the inverse relation between inequality and returns also holds outside of the U.S., with stronger results in relatively closed economies (emerging markets) than in small open economies (Europe).

Trends and Cycles of Top Income Shares in Greece: 1957–2010

This paper analyses the evolution of top income shares in Greece for the period 1957 to 2010 following Piketty (2001) methodology. We present trends and cycles of 10%, 5%, 1%, 0,5% and 0,1% income shares estimates which are based on tax statistics. The empirical results indicate that the behavior of the alternative estimated top income shares is quite similar. A ‘flat’ U-shaped pattern for most cases seems to exist. This common pattern is more apparent for the 1%, 0,5% and 0,1% top income shares. The top 10% and 5% income shares seem to be more volatile, accompanied with an increasing trend by the end of the period. Also, most of the upper income shares yield similar business cycles for the periods 1970-1976, 1976-1984, 1984-1994 and 1998-2007.This paper is an attempt to extend the existing research in southern Europe by presenting the relevant Greek experience. For the whole period, country comparisons show that the 1% top income share in Greece is in lower levels than that of USA and the other European countries (Italy, Portugal, Spain, France, Germany).

Top Income Shares, Business Profits, and Effective Tax Rates in Contemporary Chile

Top Income Shares, Business Profits, and Effective Tax Rates in Contemporary Chile

Do Rising Top Income Shares Affect the Incomes or Earnings of Low and Middle-Income Families?

This paper uses US state panel data to explore the relationship between the share of income received by affluent households and the level of income and earnings received by low and middle-income families. A rising top share of income can potentially lead to increases in the incomes of low and middle-income families if economic growth is sufficiently responsive to increases in inequality. A substantial literature on the impacts of inequality on economic growth exists, but has failed to achieve consensus, with various studies finding positive impacts, negative impacts, and no impacts on growth from increased levels of income inequality. This paper departs from that literature by exploring the effect of inequality on the standard of living of middle-income and low-income families. In the context of rising inequality, increased overall growth is not necessarily a suitable proxy for overall standard of living, since growth patterns are not always uniform for the entire income distribution. The results of this study indicate that increases in the top share of income (particularly the top one percent) are associated with declines in the actual incomes (and earnings) of middle income families, but have no clear impact on families at the bottom of the income distribution.

Finance-Dominated Capitalism and Redistribution of Income: A Kaleckian Perspective

This paper examines a major channel through which financialization or finance-dominated capitalism affects macroeconomic performance: the distribution channel. Empirical data for the following dimensions of redistribution in the period of finance-dominated capitalism since the early 1980s is provided for 15 advanced capitalist economies: functional distribution, personal/household distribution, and the share and composition of top incomes. Based on the Kaleckian approach to the determination of income shares, the effects of financialization on functional income distribution are studied in more detail. Some stylized facts of financialization are integrated into the Kaleckian approach, and by means of reviewing empirical and econometric literature it is found that financialization and neoliberalism have contributed to the falling labor income share since the early 1980s through three main Kaleckian channels: (1) a shift in the sectoral composition of the economy; (2) an increase in management salaries and rising profit claims of the rentiers, and thus in overheads; and (3) weakened trade union bargaining power.

Do Rising Top Income Shares Affect the Incomes or Earnings of Low and Middle-Income Families?

Abstract This paper uses US state panel data to explore the relationship between the share of income received by affluent households and the level of income and earnings received by low and middle-income families. A rising top share of income can potentially lead to increases in the incomes of low and middle-income families if economic growth is sufficiently responsive to increases in inequality. A substantial literature on the impacts of inequality on economic growth exists, but has failed to achieve consensus, with various studies finding positive impacts, negative impacts, and no impacts on growth from increased levels of income inequality. This paper departs from that literature by exploring the effect of inequality on the standard of living of middle-income and low-income families. In the context of rising inequality, increased overall growth is not necessarily a suitable proxy for overall standard of living, since growth patterns are not uniform for the entire income distribution. The results of this study indicate that increases in the top share of income (particularly the top one percent) are associated with declines in the actual incomes (and earnings) of middle income families, but have no clear impact on families at the bottom of the income distribution.

Finance and American Inequality in the Last Century

Rising top income shares in the US have received increased attention both within and outside of academia. In this paper, we argue that the size of the top income share in the US has been consistently shaped by the evolution of the financial sector. We test our hypotheses connecting finance and the top income share over time using empirical methods that probe the co-evolution of historical time series data: Granger causality tests, cointegration tests, and error correction model analysis. We find that the growth of the financial sector has had negative impacts on the equal distribution of market incomes in the US during the last century. Specifically, financial developments have increased the portion of national income accruing to the richest 1%, and the richest 0.01% in particular, as well as increasing the level of poverty in the US during the last century.

Top Incomes, Rising Inequality, and Welfare

We introduce permanently-shifting income shares into a growth model with workers and capital owners. The model exactly replicates the U.S. time paths of the top quintile income share, capital's share of income, and key macroeconomic variables from 1970 to 2014. Welfare effects depend on changes in the time pattern of agents' consumption relative to a counterfactual scenario that holds income shares and the transfer-output ratio constant. Short-run declines in workers' consumption are only partially offset by longer-term gains from higher transfers and more capital per worker. The baseline simulation delivers large welfare gains for capital owners and significant welfare losses for workers.