Impact Assessment Tool Research Articles

Society-centric product innovation in an era of customer obsession

This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the evolving landscape of innovation in the technology sector, with a focus on the intersection of technological progress and social responsibility. The article explores key challenges facing the industry, including public trust erosion, digital privacy concerns, and the impact of automation on workforce dynamics. It investigates responsible innovation frameworks' emergence and implementation across various organizations, highlighting the transformation from traditional development approaches to more society-centric models. The article demonstrates how companies balance innovation speed with social responsibility, incorporate ethical considerations into their development processes, and address digital disparities across different demographics. By examining how companies balance the pace of innovation with ethical responsibilities, integrate social considerations into their processes, and address digital inequities across diverse demographics, the article underscores the transformative potential of these frameworks. Through insights into cross-functional teams, impact assessment tools, and stakeholder engagement strategies, it demonstrates how responsible innovation drives both sustainable business value and societal progress.

Cheong Wa Dae: The Sustainability and Place-Making of a Cultural Landmark, Reflecting Its Role in History and Architecture

Cheong Wa Dae, a site of profound historical and cultural significance, holds great potential to be reimagined as a sustainable cultural landmark that meets contemporary social, economic, and environmental needs. This research explores strategies to preserve its historical identity while transforming it into a dynamic and accessible public space. Using a qualitative approach, this study integrates history and architectural reviews and sustainability frameworks, including alignment with the UN’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Programs were evaluated through the Sustainability Impact Assessment tool to measure their ecological, cultural, and socio-economic impacts. The findings reveal that targeted strategies—such as utilizing the physical environment for global events, promoting biodiversity, and enhancing engagement through cultural and culinary experiences—are essential for sustainable transformation. These initiatives align with 11 of the 17 SDGs, with 7 goals showing a Direct Positive Impact and 4 showing an Indirect Positive Impact. This study concludes that by merging heritage preservation with innovation and sustainability, Cheong Wa Dae can evolve into a vibrant, economically viable public space and a model for cultural place-making, fostering public engagement, economic growth, and long-term ecological benefits.

Examining patient safety protocols amidst the rise of digital health and telemedicine: nurses’ perspectives

BackgroundIntegrating digital health and telemedicine technologies is transforming healthcare delivery. In light of this transition, it is critical to ascertain the efficacy of patient safety protocols and evaluate the awareness of healthcare professionals, particularly nurses, regarding the integration of digital health technologies.AimThis study examines the factors influencing the successful adoption of digital health and telemedicine technologies from the nurses’ perspective, focusing on ensuring patient safety and enhancing organizational readiness for digital health integration.MethodsA cross-sectional study included 246 nurses from outpatient healthcare centers in Egypt. The data collected included demographic information and responses to a series of questionnaires, namely the Patient Safety Culture Survey (PSCS), the Telemedicine Risk Assessment and Mitigation Matrix (TRAMM), the Digital Health Adoption Readiness Assessment (DHARA), and the Digital Health Impact Assessment Tool (DHIA). The descriptive statistical analyses were conducted using the IBM SPSS Statistics software, version 26.ResultsThe sample was predominantly composed of nurses aged 18–35 (40.65%) and 36–55 (44.72%), with a near-equal gender distribution (48.78% male, 51.22% female). Most nurses held college degrees (73.17%) and were familiar with telemedicine (73.17%). The PSCS indicated positive scores for Communication Openness (4.5), Leadership Support (4.2), Teamwork (4.3), and Organizational Learning (4.1), with an overall mean score of 4.275. The TRAMM scores were notably high (total mean score 4.9), indicating effective risk management. The DHARA demonstrated considerable preparedness, as evidenced by a Total Mean Score of 7.85. The DHIA further substantiated this readiness, indicating a robust anticipated impact, particularly in Patient Engagement (9.0) and Usability (8.2).ConclusionThe favorable assessment scores indicate a strong awareness of integrating digital health and telemedicine, suggesting the potential for enhanced patient care and healthcare delivery. It is recommended that healthcare organizations prioritize providing ongoing training and support for nurses, enabling them to utilize digital health tools and thereby enhance patient safety effectively.Clinical trial numberNot applicable.

Probabilistic modeling of ballistic penetration in reinforced concrete panels

AbstractStudying ballistic impact on reinforced concrete (RC) structures is essential for enhancing the safety and cost‐effectiveness of these structures. The depth of penetration (DOP) and residual velocity (RV) of projectiles are critical design parameters requiring precise quantification to improve the ballistic‐resistant design. Traditional empirical models are available for quantifying these parameters but are deterministic and often yield inaccurate results due to the inherent uncertainties in ballistic impacts. This paper introduces a probabilistic approach to quantify DOP and RV accurately. Bayesian inference models are developed using dimensionless explanatory functions to estimate these parameters in RC panels under hard projectile impacts, accounting for associated uncertainties. Numerical modeling is performed using LS‐Dyna, and the model is validated against experimental data from past studies. Data from refined numerical simulations, along with available experiments from the literature, are utilized to develop the probabilistic models. The findings reveal the significant influence of projectile and concrete properties, as well as the projectile's incidence angle, on DOP and RV. The probabilistic models developed are validated with previous experimental results, demonstrating their reliability and accuracy. Consequently, robust design formulae are proposed for estimating DOP and RV for RC panels under hard projectile impacts, providing a valuable tool for precise impact assessments in engineering applications.

Assessing Pantanal fauna through environmental DNA metabarcoding after the 2020 megafire

The environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding is a methodology that, from environmental samples such as soil, water, air, and others, enables the simultaneous identification of multiple species, thus allowing for large-scale mapping of biological diversity in a specific study area. Due to its non-invasive sampling approach, where species are detected from the traces they leave in the environment, eliminating the need to isolate and capture organisms, eDNA metabarcoding emerges as a valuable tool in conservation strategies. This study aims to explore the use of eDNA methodology for biodiversity monitoring and environmental impact assessment caused by the 2020 megafire in the Pantanal of Brazil, focusing on vertebrates. Environmental samples were collected at two protected areas and their surrounding areas, Taiamã Ecological Station (TES) and Pantanal Matogrossense National Park (PMNP), Mato Grosso, Brazil. We identified in TES, 27 mammals, 56 fishes, 12 birds, 4 amphibians, and 4 reptiles, while in PMNP, 43 mammals, 45 fishes, 126 birds, 19 amphibians, and 11 reptiles. Soil sampling proved to be more efficient compared to water sampling: 26 species were exclusively identified in soil samples, while 9 were attributed to water samples. Here, we demonstrated that the primer 12SV5 only a superior efficacy in identifying mammal and herpetofauna species compared to the other markers used (16Smam and MiBird). Moreover, we confirmed the complementary role of eDNA alongside camera trapping, and its advantage to estimate species richness with a single field expedition. We stress the need to optimize sample collection methods for the target group and to reduce the influence of contamination and water flow. This study highlights the importance of eDNA methodology as a crucial tool for biodiversity monitoring and environmental impact assessment, enabling rapid access to biodiversity and long-term monitoring.

Strategies to optimise the health equity impact of digital pain self-reporting tools: a series of multi-stakeholder focus groups

BackgroundThere are avoidable differences (i.e., inequities) in the prevalence and distribution of chronic pain across diverse populations, as well as in access to and outcomes of pain management services. Digital pain self-reporting tools have the potential to reduce or exacerbate these inequities. This study aimed to better understand how to optimise the health equity impact of digital pain self-reporting tools on people who are experiencing (or are at risk of) digital pain inequities.MethodsThis was a qualitative study, guided by the Health Equity Impact Assessment tool—digital health supplement (HEIA-DH). We conducted three scoping focus groups with multiple stakeholders to identify the potential impacts of digital pain self-reporting tools and strategies to manage these impacts. Each group focused on one priority group experiencing digital pain inequities, including older adults, ethnic minorities, and people living in socio-economically deprived areas. A fourth consensus focus group was organised to discuss and select impact management strategies. Focus groups were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analysed using a framework approach. We derived codes, grouped them under four pre-defined categories from the HEIA-DH, and illustrated them with participants’ quotes.ResultsA total of fifteen people living with musculoskeletal pain conditions and thirteen professionals took part. Participants described how digital pain self-reports can have a positive health equity impact by better capturing pain fluctuations and enriching patient-provider communication, which in turn can enhance clinical decisions and self-management practices. Conversely, participants identified that incorrect interpretation of pain reports, lack of knowledge of pain terminologies, and digital (e.g., no access to technology) and social (e.g., gender stereotyping) exclusions may negatively impact on people’s health equity. The participants identified 32 strategies, of which 20 were selected as being likely to mitigate these negative health equity impacts. Example strategies included, e.g., option to customise self-reporting tools in line with users’ personal preferences, or resources to better explain how self-reported pain data will be used to build trust.ConclusionLinked to people’s personal and social characteristics, there are equity-based considerations for developing accessible digital pain self-reporting tools, as well as resources and skills to enable the adoption and use of these tools among priority groups. Future research should focus on implementing these equity-based considerations or strategies identified by our study and monitoring their impact on the health equity of people living with chronic pain.

Integrating SDGs to village development plan through the provision of infrastructure: The case of best village panchayat in Kerala, South India

With the declaration of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the importance of localisation principles and, consequently, the local-level institutions in implementing development policies came to the forefront. India adopted a thematic approach by condensing the seventeen goals into nine themes, to be worked upon by the local administrative units, furthering that each Village Panchayat (constitutionally known as Grama Panchayats) should select a theme in a plan year and strive towards attaining it. For the South Indian state of Kerala, with its good trajectory of decentralised governance, this localisation process of SDGs was rather smooth. In this article, we discuss the case of the best-performing Grama Panchayat (GP) in Kerala, which has identified ‘Village with Self-Sufficient Infrastructure’ as the development theme. Through qualitative research methodology, we examine how the Panchayat included projects specific to this theme in the development plans and how the implementation helped produce effects on multidimensional aspects of SDGs using the SDG Impact Assessment Tool. The case studies of different infrastructure-based projects endorse that with proper planning and implementation of such projects, the lowest tier of administration can significantly contribute to the improvement of development goals. We have delineated full fund utilisation through convergence schemes, community participation, and strong monitoring mechanisms as the factors leading the selected Panchayat to be the champion of the cause. The accomplishment exhibited by the Panchayat by integrating SDGs into the Village Development Plan through the projects on the theme of self-sufficient infrastructure can be well emulated by other local bodies across the world.

Design Thinking Approach to Create Impact Assessment Tool: Cities2030 Case Study

This paper presents the development and testing of an impact assessment tool for the Cities2030 project aimed at transforming city-region food systems to align with the European Union’s Food2030 policy and the European Green Deal. This study highlights the importance of sustainable urban food systems, focusing on food security, environmental sustainability, and public health. Using a design thinking approach, this research emphasizes co-creation, stakeholder engagement, and iterative refinement, developing a flexible, multi-dimensional framework adaptable to diverse city-region contexts. Through collaboration with 65 stakeholders, this tool was tailored to meet the socio-economic and environmental needs of different regions. Case studies from Cities2030 partner cities demonstrate its effectiveness in fostering cross-sectoral collaboration, enhancing community participation, and driving food system innovations. Key findings reveal measurable impacts across social, environmental, and economic dimensions, while addressing challenges like regional disparities in data collection and the need for improved long-term tracking of sustainability metrics. This study concludes by underscoring the role of adaptive, inclusive strategies in assessing urban food systems’ sustainability and resilience and suggests that the tool’s framework could be applied to other urban sustainability areas, such as energy and water management.

Assessment of Mortality Attributable to Air Pollution in the Urban Area of Pisa (Central Italy) Characterized by Multi-Source Exposures

Air pollution is one of the main risk factors for human health. The aim of this study was to provide an Integrated Environmental and Health Impact Assessment (IEHIA) tool to estimate the impacts on both environment and human health in Pisa municipality (central Italy). For each pollutant considered (PM2.5, PM10, and NO2), both Population-Weighted Exposure (PWE) and Attributable Deaths (ADs) were calculated considering the difference between the PWE and the latest air quality guidelines suggested by the World Health Organization. The PWEs were 16.1 µg/m3, 24.9 µg/m3, and 25.9 µg/m3 for PM2.5, PM10, and NO2, respectively. The ADs from natural causes due to exposure to PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 were 63, 29, and 51, respectively. The AD distribution was mainly concentrated in urban areas for particulate matter and in urban and suburban areas for NO2. The results highlighted significantly higher levels of air pollution than the reference levels, with a percentage of ADs from natural causes of approximately 6% of the total mortality in Pisa. IEHIA offers support for environmental and health policies and territorial planning. The authors recommend the adoption of prevention measures aimed at mitigating air pollution in critical areas, with a consequent reduction in avoidable mortality.

Impact Assessments - existing procedures and potentials for health and health equity

Abstract Impact assessment tools are used in policy making all over Europe, some have a legal foundation, others were performed voluntarily for certain measures. Usually, impact assessment procedures are dedicated to specific policy areas or political fields. As policies often have impacts in more than one political area, an interlinkage of impact assessments would be appropriate - also to foster co-benefits of policy making. To follow this approach of a more integrated way of impact assessment, it is necessary to gain an overview and understanding of different procedures in place on national level. As policy making is important for designing healthy living environments, a specific task in the EU Joint Action Prevent NCD is focussing on fostering health and well-being through impact assessment procedures. Therefore, an assessment of the existing impact assessments in the participating member states will be performed in 2024. By using a document analysis of guiding material like guidelines, standards or web applications for the specific impact assessment types, it will be investigated how health and health equity aspects are already included. A qualitative comparison of the results can deliver similarities and differences but also promising practices in the member states. The preliminary results of this analysis will be presented. By learning about the different impact assessment procedures in place, potential synergies and entry points for health and health equity could be found. In a next step, a comprehensive checklist for health and health equity should be developed and piloted in the member states. The final version of checklist should be a guiding material that could be included in various Impact Assessment procedures. Key messages • Impact assessment procedures are important for policy making and can foster co-benefits in various political fields. • By learning about the different impact assessment procedures in place, potential synergies and entry points for health and health equity could be found.

DYNAMO-HIA: A health impact assessment tool fit for quantifying tobacco control policy

Abstract DYNAMO-HIA is a generic, publicly-available and easy to use software tool for health impact assessments of changes in health risk-factors such as obesity, air pollution, processed meat consumption, physical activity, alcohol taxation, or smoking. The tool uses a graphic use interface, does not require programming skills, and has comparatively modest data requirements. Health outcomes that can be investigated are mortality, life expectancy, healthy-life expectancy, disability and prevalence of various chronic disease such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cancer, or coronary heart diseases. DYNAMO-HIA can in principle be used for any tobacco control policy or ordinance-e.g. price increases or pictorial health warning labels-that target changes in smoking prevalence or smoking initiation/quitting rates. Past applications of DYNAMO-HIA for tobacco control policy included country studies for Belgium, Mongolia, or Korea and several comparative country studies. In this presentation we will give a general overview into the use of DYNAMO-HIA and show-case a recently published study. This study quantified the reduction in COPD burden that would occur in Italy, England and Sweden over 40 years if tobacco prices were increased by 5%, 10% and 20% over current local prices.

Company commitments on nutrition and sustainability: A three-country comparison

Abstract Background The Business Impact Assessment (BIA) tools were developed by INFORMAS to document companies’ commitments on population nutrition (BIA-Obesity) and environmental sustainability (BIA-Sustainability). As part of the EU-funded Food Systems that Support Transitions to Healthy and Sustainable Diets (FEAST) project, we used the BIA-Obesity and BIA-Sustainability to map the public commitments of a range of national and international food companies active in Belgium, Ireland, and Portugal. Methods We selected companies (Belgium n = 37; Ireland n = 39; Portugal n = 36) across the packaged food, soft drinks, quick service restaurant, grocery retailers, infant formula, and catering industries. Selection was based primarily on the companies’ market shares in each country, but minor adaptations were made to enable comparison of findings between the countries. We searched each company’s website, annual reports, and other public sources, logging all commitments relevant to the domains of the BIAs. Domains and criteria were adapted to reflect the regulatory and legislative environment in each country. Results In all three countries, commitments on sustainability were significantly stronger than those on nutrition, though still falling short of best practice. Within sustainability, commitments found in Belgium and Portugal were significantly stronger than those found in Ireland. Nutrition-related commitments were more consistent across the three countries, with companies in Ireland and Portugal showing the highest-scoring commitments in relation to product formulation. Conclusions Companies across all industry sectors and countries fall short of best practices, with a stronger commitments to environmental sustainability than to tackling obesity and non-communicable diseases. These results underscore the critical necessity for more ambitious government regulations at both European and national levels. Key messages • Critical necessity for government regulations at both European and national levels to adress environmental and nutritional challenges. • Industry need stronger commitments to tackling obesity and non-communicable diseases.

Wellbeing through Entrepreneurship: Analysis by Using Capability Approach

The core claim of the capability approach is that assessments of the well-being or quality of life of a person, and judgements about justice, or the level of development of a country, on the basis of effective opportunities that people have to lead the lives they have reason to value. Entrepreneurship Development Model for Poverty Alleviation is focused program on pro-poor marginalized community of Nepal. This paper focused on finding of research conducted on different nine indicator of achieved functioning as an impact assessment tool. Capabilities Approach (CA) argued wellbeing is enhanced by expanding the range of things a person could be or do. Secondary data are used from the office of Dhangadhi Sub-metropolitan City and primary data are collected through structured ordinal questionnaire survey to the sample group of 123 persons representing the population of 409. Descriptive assessment is used to analyse the impact of program on peoples’ wellbeing. Individuals reported improved levels of wellbeing. High impact is shown in subjective wellbeing which is measured by overall life satisfaction, moderate impact on health, ability to be oneself, income sufficiency, friendship and decreasing feeling of loneliness and least impact on decreasing discrimination, trust on people and spending for own. The research findings show program has a positive impact on wellbeing, and it is suggested that the capabilities of beneficiaries expanded after joining the MEDEP/MEDPA program.

A realist impact evaluation of a tool to strengthen equity in local government policy-making

BackgroundLocal governments have a critical role to play in addressing health inequities. Health equity impact assessments are recommended to help governments apply an equity lens to the development and implementation of policies and programs. Despite evidence of equity-positive benefits of such tools, adoption remains limited, prompting calls for evaluations to assess their impact and identify factors that will promote uptake across various contexts.MethodsWe conducted a mixed method study to evaluate the impact of an equity impact assessment (EIA) tool and process on policies and organisational capacity in a local government in Victoria, Australia, and identify factors that influenced this impact. We analysed 33 documents related to 18 EIAs, and conducted surveys (n = 40) and in-depth interviews (n = 17) with staff involved in EIAs.ResultsAlmost all (17 of 18) EIAs resulted in equity-positive changes to policies and programs, most frequently addressing individual-level factors, such as making community communications and consultations more accessible to under-represented or under-served groups. Structural-level recommendations from one EIA, such as increasing diversity in decision-making panels, were found to impact both the current policy and a broad range of future, related projects and services. Improvements in equity-centric organisational culture and capacity (including staff awareness, skills and confidence) and increased engagement with under-represented communities were also reported. Factors perceived to influence the impact of EIA’s related to organisational commitment and capacity to prioritise equity, process-level factors related to the type and timing of EIAs, and extent of implementation support.ConclusionOur study supports wider uptake of health equity impact assessments in local government policies and programs. Legislation, leadership and resources from upper-tiers of government can help increase the adoption of equity tools to reduce disparities in population health.

Balancing confidentiality and care coordination: challenges in patient privacy.

In the digital age, maintaining patient confidentiality while ensuring effective care coordination poses significant challenges for healthcare providers, particularly nurses. To investigate the challenges and strategies associated with balancing patient confidentiality and effective care coordination in the digital age. A cross-sectional study was conducted in a general hospital in Egypt to collect data from 150 nurses across various departments with at least six months of experience in patient care. Data were collected using six tools: Demographic Form, HIPAA Compliance Checklist, Privacy Impact Assessment (PIA) Tool, Data Sharing Agreement (DSA) Framework, EHR Privacy and Security Assessment Tool, and NIST Cybersecurity Framework. Validity and Reliability were ensured through pilot testing and factor analysis. Participants were primarily aged 31-40 years (45%), with 75% female and 60% staff nurses. High compliance was observed in the HIPAA Compliance Checklist, especially in Administrative Safeguards (3.8 ± 0.5), indicating strong management and training processes, with an overall score of 85 ± 10. The PIA Tool showed robust privacy management, with Project Descriptions scoring 4.5 ± 0.3 and a total score of 30 ± 3. The DSA Framework had a mean total score of 20 ± 2, with Data Protection Measures scoring highest at 4.0 ± 0.4. The EHR assessments revealed high scores in Access Controls (4.4 ± 0.3) and Data Integrity Measures (4.3 ± 0.3), with an overall score of 22 ± 1.5. The NIST Cybersecurity Framework had a total score of 18 ± 2, with the highest scores in Protect (3.8) and lower in Detect (3.6). Strong positive correlations were found between HIPAA Compliance and EHR Privacy (r = 0.70, p < 0.05) and NIST Cybersecurity (r = 0.55, p < 0.05), reflecting effective data protection practices. The study suggests that continuous improvement in privacy practices among healthcare providers, through ongoing training and comprehensive privacy frameworks, is vital for enhancing patient confidentiality and supporting effective care coordination.

An Innovative Geospatial Monitoring and Health Impact Assessment Tool for Sustainable and Healthy City Planning

An Innovative Geospatial Monitoring and Health Impact Assessment Tool for Sustainable and Healthy City Planning

GeoGOBLIN: A catchment-scale land balance model for assessment of climate mitigation pathways considering environmental trade-offs for multiple impact categories

GeoGOBLIN, a novel environmental impact and land balance assessment tool, builds upon the GOBLIN biophysical land use emissions model for Ireland, offering enhanced resolution and system-level detail. It combines remotely sensed data and national agricultural census data to model climate change, air quality, and eutrophication emissions at the catchment level. Integration of the CBM-CFS3 forest carbon modelling framework (utilised in Ireland's National Inventory Report) increases alignment with national emissions reporting. GeoGOBLIN disaggregates emissions by life cycle assessment impact categories, making it a valuable tool for policymakers and researchers evaluating environmental and economic trade-offs associated with land-use scenarios. Illustrative scenarios demonstrate GeoGOBLIN's ability to assess the multifaceted impacts of alternative land uses, supporting informed decision-making for sustainable land use, food production, and a circular bioeconomy.

El análisis psicológico del Derecho en la regulación jurídica. El sandbox español de inteligencia artificial”.

The close collaboration between Psychology and Law has contributed to the enrichment of the legislative technique. The application of psychological behavioural analysis to law breaks the current paradigm and offers a unique perspective for lawmaking through the study of people's behaviour in the face of laws. Legal experimentation, an innovative practice, emerges as a crucial tool for law-making and regulatory impact assessment in novel areas whose subject matter may be potentially burdensome to individual rights and freedoms. In the context of the Spanish artificial intelligence sandbox, the application of psychology to law is of particular importance, as it contributes to the emerging and much-needed legal regulation. This cooperation between doctrines promises not only to boost normative evolution, but also to ensure a more effective and protective regulation in a world increasingly influenced by technology.

A Synthesis on Impact Assessment Models from the Perspective of Evolution of the EU Common Agricultural Policy

Purpose: This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the current quantitative impact assessment methodologies, examining their strengths and weaknesses in terms of data requirements, as well as their consideration of social, economic, and environmental factors. Furthermore, it aims to elucidate the necessity for new-generation agricultural impact assessment models to incorporate advancements in information technology, communication tools, and big data analytics. Design/Methodology/Approach: In this review, the term "agricultural modelling platforms" is used to denote different equilibrium models and these models are divided into two categories according on their methodological approaches. The first category adopts a "systems approach," which includes general and partial equilibrium type models, as well as sector models. The "agent-based approach" is used by the second category. This review, thus, is primarily concerned with contrasting farm-representative models with farm-based models. Findings: The study emphasizes the importance of methodology and criteria in modelling exercises, considering factors like analysis level, environmental impact, and relationship between agriculture and the environment. It suggests that selecting the right modelling scale and tool requires asking the right research questions in advance. Originality/Value: In this study, general and partial equilibrium models, which allow impact analysis of policies implemented in the agricultural sector, which is increasingly faced with ecological and social problems, and Agent Based Models (ABM), which allow the problems in question to be included in the models, are compared and provided guidance to policy makers. It is aimed to reveal their advantages/disadvantages against each other. The originality of this study is that this comparison is made by taking into account the evolution of the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) since its establishment.

Predicting the Global Extinction Risk for 6569 Species by Applying the Life Cycle Impact Assessment Method to the Impact of Future Land Use Changes

Land use change is considered to be one of the key direct drivers of ecosystem erosion and biodiversity loss. The Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) serves as a robust tool for environmental impact assessment, featuring an advanced framework and indicators for assessing global biodiversity loss. In this research, we utilized the Species Distribution Model (SDM) to evaluate 6569 species across five taxonomic groups. We simulated habitat change and losses induced by land use changes under sustainable future scenarios from the present to 2100. This enables us to assess spatial extinction risks based on shifts in the global distribution of species. Our findings reveal a global biodiversity extinction risk of approximately 4.9 species/year, equivalent to an extinction rate of 745.9 E/MSY. Notably, higher-risk hotspots have been identified in regions such as South America, South Australia, and New Zealand. Although future sustainable scenarios involving land intensification may mitigate the biodiversity extinction rate, the objective of reaching 10 E/MSY by the end of this century remains a distant goal. By providing a more rational basis for biodiversity loss, the indicators of spatial extinction risk demonstrate the advantage of effectively reflecting regional characteristics.