Risk Management Tools Research Articles

Risky business: human-related data is lacking from Lyme disease risk models.

Used as a communicative tool for risk management, risk maps provide a service to the public, conveying information that can raise risk awareness and encourage mitigation. Several studies have utilized risk maps to determine risks associated with the distribution of Borrelia burgdorferi, the causal agent of Lyme disease in North America and Europe, as this zoonotic disease can lead to severe symptoms. This literature review focused on the use of risk maps to model distributions of B. burgdorferi and its vector, the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis), in North America to compare variables used to predict these spatial models. Data were compiled from the existing literature to determine which ecological, environmental, and anthropic (i.e., human focused) variables past research has considered influential to the risk level for Lyme disease. The frequency of these variables was examined and analyzed via a non-metric multidimensional scaling analysis to compare different map elements that may categorize the risk models performed. Environmental variables were found to be the most frequently used in risk spatial models, particularly temperature. It was found that there was a significantly dissimilar distribution of variables used within map elements across studies: Map Type, Map Distributions, and Map Scale. Within these map elements, few anthropic variables were considered, particularly in studies that modeled future risk, despite the objective of these models directly or indirectly focusing on public health intervention. Without including human-related factors considering these variables within risk map models, it is difficult to determine how reliable these risk maps truly are. Future researchers may be persuaded to improve disease risk models by taking this into consideration.

Business Risks in COVID-19 Crisis Dataset Modeling: Regulatory vs. Marketing Tools of Risk Management

The research aims to identify the most promising regulatory and marketing tools for business risk management in the COVID-19 crisis and develop recommendations for improving the practice of these tools from a post-pandemic perspective. This paper is devoted to the scientific search for answers to two research questions: RQ1: What tactical tools of business risk management are most effective in the COVID-19 crisis? RQ2: How to carry out strategic risk management of the business from a post-COVID perspective? The authors perform dataset modeling of business risks in the COVID-19 crisis and data analysis of the post-pandemic perspective of managing these risks, relying on data for 2016–2023, reflecting international experience in a representative sample. The key conclusion of this research is that the most complete and effective business risk management in times of COVID-19 crisis requires the integrated application of tools of state and corporate governance, that is, two-tier management: At the state and business levels. On this basis, the authors recommended applying the systemic approach to business risk management in times of the COVID-19 crisis, which includes a set of the most effective regulatory (financial support from the state budget and protectionism) and marketing (use of big data and analytics) tools of business risk management. The practical significance of the research results is that the recommended systemic approach to using regulatory and marketing tools can improve the effectiveness of tactical and strategic risk management in the COVID-19 crisis, thereby increasing business resilience to this crisis. The novelty is due to the fact that we selected the most effective tools of business risk management under the conditions of the COVID-19 crisis and proved the necessity to combine the tools of state and corporate management, which are substantiated, for the first time, not as mutually interchangeable, but complementary practices of risk management in the unique context of the COVID-19 crisis.

企业财会管理中的风险管理问题探讨

The matter of risk management within enterprise financial and accounting management is of paramount significance. Amid an unpredictable economic and business landscape, companies contend with an array of risks, including financial risks, market risks, regulatory compliance risks, and more. These perils not only jeopardize the operational and financial equilibrium of enterprises but also exert a direct influence on their competitiveness and long-term viability. Consequently, this article commences with an examination of the objectives and principles underpinning risk management. It subsequently delves into the various categories of risks encountered in enterprise financial and accounting management, with a particular emphasis on exploring the associated challenges. Finally, we consolidate and outline tailored risk management tools and methods for practical reference.

Disaster Risk Management and Reduction in Niger: A Review of Tools, Structures, and Mechanisms

Niger, a vast landlocked country in the arid Sahel region of West Africa, is constantly faced with disasters, with their attendant loss of human life, material goods, economic damage, and damage to critical infrastructure. However, in terms of disaster risk management and reduction, the country has policies and strategies that are consistent with regional and global disaster risk reduction frameworks and instruments. An analysis carried out based on secondary data collection on disaster risk management and reduction tools, structures, and mechanisms revealed the need to make better use of what already exists by improving overall coordination. This can be achieved by putting in place a strong structure that can drive the mobilization of resources and by placing a strong emphasis on the development of operational tools that focus on prevention rather than emergency response. To achieve this, it is important to review data collection methods by simplifying them using geographical information, which could lead to the collection of relevant and timely data to improve the alert mechanism so that it is as rapid as possible and allows the implementation of preventive actions rather than emergency responses. Improving the GRC framework will also require the implementation of coherent land use and urban development strategies with appropriate building standards, supported by adequate funding mechanisms to build resilient infrastructure. Keywords: Disaster risk management, Prevention, Emergency response, Recovery, Niger.

Predictive value of the stress hyperglycemia ratio in dialysis patients with acute coronary syndrome: insights from a multi-center observational study

BackgroundVarious studies have indicated that stress hyperglycemia ratio (SHR) can reflect true acute hyperglycemic status and is associated with poor outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, data on dialysis patients with ACS are limited. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score is a well-validated risk prediction tool for ACS patients, yet it underestimates the risk of major events in patients receiving dialysis. This study aimed to evaluate the association between SHR and adverse cardiovascular events in dialysis patients with ACS and explore the potential incremental prognostic value of incorporating SHR into the GRACE risk score.MethodsThis study enrolled 714 dialysis patients with ACS from January 2015 to June 2021 at 30 tertiary medical centers in China. Patients were stratified into three groups based on the tertiles of SHR. The primary outcome was major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and the secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality.ResultsAfter a median follow-up of 20.9 months, 345 (48.3%) MACE and 280 (39.2%) all-cause mortality occurred, comprising 205 cases of cardiovascular death. When the highest SHR tertile was compared to the second SHR tertile, a significantly increased risk of MACE (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.48–2.49), all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.64–2.93), and cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.70; 95% CI, 1.90–3.83) was identified in the multivariable Cox regression model. A similar association was observed in both diabetic and nondiabetic patients. Further restricted cubic spline analysis identified a J-shaped association between the SHR and primary and secondary outcomes, with hazard ratios for MACE and mortality significantly increasing when SHR was > 1.08. Furthermore, adding SHR to the GRACE score led to a significant improvement in its predictive accuracy for MACE and mortality, as measured by the C-statistic, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination improvement, especially for those with diabetes.ConclusionsIn dialysis patients with ACS, SHR was independently associated with increased risks of MACE and mortality. Furthermore, SHR may aid in improving the predictive efficiency of the GRACE score, especially for those with diabetes. These results indicated that SHR might be a valuable tool for risk stratification and management of dialysis patients with ACS.

Probabilistic Approach to Transient Unsaturated Slope Stability Associated with Precipitation Event

The massif rupture is not always reached under saturated conditions; therefore, the analysis of the unsaturated phenomenon is necessary in some cases. This study performed a probabilistic approach for unsaturated and transient conditions to understand the contribution of physical and hydraulic parameters involved in slope stability. The proposed slope stability model was based on the infinite slope method and a new unsaturated constitutive shear strength model proposed in 2021 by Cavalcante and Mascarenhas. The first-order second-moment method, which incorporated multiple stochastic variables, was used in the probabilistic analysis, allowing the incorporation of seven independent variables for the probability of failure analysis as well as for quantifying the contribution of the variables to the total variance of a factor of safety at any state of moisture. This implementation allows a more realistic estimative for the probability of failure, showing in a practical way the decrease and increase of the probability of failure during a rain event. The model provided promising results highlighting the need to migrate from deterministic analyses to more robust probabilistic analyses, considering the most significant number of stochastic variables. The proposed model helps to understand the influence of moisture content on slope stability, being a possible tool in natural disaster risk management.

Risiko dalam Implementasi Free On Board (FOB) Berdasarkan Incoterms 2010 pada Penyelenggaraan Pengangkutan Laut

Incoterms 2010, issued by the International Chamber of Commerce and effective January 1,2011, is a set of rules for the delivery of products between sellers and buyers that are routinelyincluded in international sales contracts. Incoterms 2010 provides harmonized rules ofinterpretation for eleven general trading terms. From these eleven common terms, a trader mustselect the Incoterms that are most appropriate for the specific transaction he wishes to undertake.If used correctly, Incoterms 2010 is an effective risk management tool. However, old tradingpractices create tensions with modern transportation practices and Incoterms 2010, potentiallyincreasing risks for traders. When using Incoterms, Free On Board (FOB) terms are the mostfrequently used in transportation methods. This article intends to examine what risks occur in usingthe term FOB, especially in sea transportation. The type of research used in this paper is normativelegal research (normative analysis) using library materials as a source of research data.Furthermore, this article intends to provide support to traders to learn more about FOB so that theycan propose criteria that might be applied to choose the most appropriate Incoterm. Therefore, thiswill be the basis of how the mode of transport influences and sometimes even determines choices fora certain period of time.

Assets & Liability Management Analysis of IDBI Bank

One of the most important tools for risk management in banks is asset liability management. To improve their performance, the banks must implement appropriate Asset Liability Management procedures. Furthermore, asset liability management has purposes beyond mere risk mitigation. The protection that asset liability management provides creates additional chances to increase net worth. Ratio analysis was used to examine the assets and liabilities of IBDI bank. The IDBI Bank asset liability management will be examined during the sample period of 2013–2022. It offers the structure required to identify, quantify, track, adjust, and manage these risks.

Farm‐level evaluation of area‐ and agroclimatic‐based index insurance

AbstractWe utilize over 190,000 historical farm‐level dryland row‐crop yield observations (corn, sorghum, soybeans, and winter wheat) spanning over 7000 Kansas farms from 1973 to 2018 coupled with agroclimatic variables to assess the performance of a broad range of weather‐ and area‐based insurance products. Results showed substantial levels of basis risk across agroclimatic‐based indices, limited ability to reduce income variability under fair pricing, and underperformance relative to area‐based yield products. Growth‐stage specific heat indices for corn and soybeans may offer an effective risk management tool. Implications in the context of current agricultural policy initiatives and climate change adaptation are discussed.

Artificial intelligence for dementia prevention.

A wide range of modifiable risk factors for dementia have been identified. Considerable debate remains about these risk factors, possible interactions between them or with genetic risk, and causality, and how they can help in clinical trial recruitment and drug development. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) may refine understanding. ML approaches are being developed in dementia prevention.We discuss exemplar uses and evaluate the current applications and limitations in the dementia prevention field. Risk-profiling tools may help identify high-risk populations for clinical trials; however, their performance needs improvement. New risk-profiling and trial-recruitment tools underpinned by ML models may be effective in reducing costs and improving future trials. ML can inform drug-repurposing efforts and prioritization of disease-modifying therapeutics. ML is not yet widely used but has considerable potential to enhance precision in dementia prevention. Artificial intelligence (AI) is not widely used in the dementia prevention field. Risk-profiling tools are not used in clinical practice. Causal insights are needed to understand risk factors over the lifespan. AI will help personalize risk-management tools for dementia prevention. AI could target specific patient groups that will benefit most for clinical trials.

The impact of hurricanes on a property portfolio: an empirical study based on loss data in Portugal

PurposeThe simulated scenarios can be used to compute risk premiums per risk class in the portfolio. These can then be used to adjust the policy premiums by accounting for storm risk.Design/methodology/approachA complete model to analyse and characterise future losses of the property portfolio of an insurance company due to hurricanes is proposed. The model is calibrated by using the loss data of the Fidelidade insurance company property portfolio resulting from Hurricane Leslie, which hit the centre of continental Portugal in October, 2018.FindingsSeveral scenarios are simulated and risk maps are constructed. The risk map of the company depends on its portfolio, especially its exposure, and provides a Hurricane risk management tool for the insurance company.Originality/valueA statistical model is considered, in which weather data is not required. The authors reconstruct the behaviour of storms through the registered claims and respective losses.

Effects of credit risks on growth of commercial banks in Nepal

This study aims to investigate the effects of credit risk management tools on the growth of commercial banks in Nepal. The study utilized a descriptive research design with quantitative research methods. The data were collected from System-X, for a period of 12 years from 2011 to 2022. The results of the study indicate that non-performing loans (NPLs) have a significant negative effect on bank performance and growth of total assets in Nepal. The average non-performing loans of the commercial banks during the study period was 1.5 percent. During this period, the average total assets growth of the banking sector was 19.94 percent. Credit to Deposit Ratio, Non-Performing Loan, and Inflation were statistically significant to predict the growth of commercial banks. The study also revealed that credit management practices among Nepalese commercial banks are suboptimal. This study further suggests that the regulatory authority should periodically review the credit risk management tools employed by banks in order to mitigate the credit risks.

Hedging with futures during nonconvergence in commodity markets

Hedging in grain futures markets offers market participants the opportunity to mitigate the price risk in spot markets by taking offsetting positions in futures. The performance of a traditional minimum variance hedge ratio (MVHR) relies on the correlation between the spot and futures price changes. During 2005–2010, delivery-location cash prices for several crops decoupled from the prices for their related expiring futures contracts—raising concerns over the hedging effectiveness of these contracts. We investigate how short hedgers, like farmers, performed during periods with and without convergence in corn, soybean, and wheat markets. We show that, ex post, MVHR, often does not minimize the variance of wheat producers’ profits during nonconvergence when compared to a range of other hedging choices. We also find that the performance of MVHR weakens during years with low carryover. We further assess hedging performance of MVHR and other hedge ratios in achieving higher net selling prices, and find that nonconvergence particularly impairs their performance in the wheat market where the nonconvergence anomaly was the most prominent. Taken together, our results raise questions on the role of futures markets as risk management tools during nonconvergence episodes regardless of how the hedge ratio is chosen.

Lapsation Risk: Takaful Operators In Malaysia

Insurance serves as a tool for risk management. Takaful is an Islamic insurance where the concepts of mutual cooperation (ta’awun) and donation (tabarru’) are used as the main pillars. Apart from the usual market and credit risk, lapsation risk is one of the main risks faced by a life insurer. It is important to determine factors that may influence policy lapsation as it could affect the solvency and the profitability of insurance or a Takaful operator. Therefore, the relationship between surrender rates and economic variables (Unemployment Rate, Real Interest Rate, Growth Domestic Product (GDP), Inflation - Annual % change in Consumer Price Index and Stock Market Price Index (%) ) were examined for Takaful operator ordinary life and unit investment link products. Out of sample forecast was performed for 2019 to 2020 surrender rates for Takaful operator ordinary life and unit investment link products. Panel data model was applied for both purposes as the method is viable to overcome small sample size issue. The empirical findings revealed that the economic variable displayed a different impact on the surrender rate for both products. Both ordinary life and investment linked products exhibited a significant relationship between unemployment rate and surrender rate; in which higher unemployment rate led to increased surrender rate. Stock also had a statistically significant impact on the surrender rate of both products. Meanwhile, interest rate had an insignificant link with the surrender rate of both products. This outcome is in agreement with several past studies that reported no real relationship between interest rate and surrender rate; thus disregarding the infamous interest rate hypothesis. Lastly, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) displayed an insignificant correlation with the surrender rate of both products. By using Pool OLS model, the trend for ordinary life product decreased in 2020 for all Takaful operators. As for investment linked products, a decreasing trend was noted from 2019 to 2020; the lowest and the highest forecast rates in 2019 were ascribed to Takaful Ikhlas and Takaful Malaysia, respectively.

Managing Spring rain risks in vineyards: A user-centred approach to identify climate decision triggers in seasonal forecasts

In the context of climate risk mitigation strategies seasonal forecasts have been often proposed as a potential climate risk management tool for the wine industry. However, in spite of the recent research advancements, the adoption of climate predictions in strategic decision-making remains complex. This paper aims to support decision-making in the wine sector by providing a methodology to establish the probability thresholds that can trigger a decision based on seasonal forecasts, in an illustrative setting where precipitation occurring in spring could heavily affect the effectiveness of plant protection and canopy management. The results show the probability thresholds obtained for the user involved and the specific decision under three different predicted scenarios. The advantages of this co-production methodology consist in the trust created by the engagement with the user and the high level of tailoring of the analysis performed, posing the basis for user risk profile analysis. The drawbacks lay in the use of a simplified theoretical framework and the need of engaging new users for replication.

A Trans-Theoretical Model for Farmers’ perceived Usefulness of Digital Risk Management Tools – A Case Study from Germany

Digital risk management tools (RMTs) are promising to help farmers manage risk. However, these recently developed tools are still unexplored and hardly used by farmers. This study is the first to investigate how German farmers perceive the usefulness of digital RMTs and which factors influence them. A novel modification of the trans-theoretical model was made to determine farmers’ perceived usefulness gradually. The regression results show that, on average, farmers perceive digital RMTs as potentially useful. Perceptions are positively influenced by a higher level of education, full-time employment on the farm, use of mobile devices and a higher perceived importance of digital tools. The study contributes to the literature by investigating the extent to which farmers are willing to accept the combination of digitisation and risk management. The results are of interest to policy makers involved in digital agriculture and to agricultural tool providers, as they offer first insights into farmers’ acceptance of digital RMTs. Researchers benefit from the successfully applied trans-theoretical model fitting.

Risk Management in Clinical Trials: Assessment of Current Practices at Portuguese Clinical Trial Sites.

Over the last years, in response to the increasing complexity and demand of clinical trials, there has been a growing concern with the application of efficient risk management methodologies. The main objective of this work is to assess the current level of implementation of risk management activities by clinical trials sites' teams and identify points of improvement. A cross-sectional study was conducted through an original, non-validated questionnaire created to assess the risk management practices at Portuguese clinical trial sites. The web-based survey was sent by e-mail to the clinical trial sites identified, and it was available for one month. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the findings. In total, 46 clinical trial sites accepted to participate in this study. The surveys' answers showed that although 57.0% of sites reported the use of a systematic risk management tool, only nine sites (19.6%) described a standard tool or document that captured systematically the analysis of risks at the site level. Most of the sites (87.0%) showed willing to use a risk management tool specifically tailored for their operational needs, with the lack of knowledge about risk management being the main reason against its implementation. This work indicates that the surveyed clinical trial sites generally recognize the importance of risk management methodologies as an opportunity to anticipate difficulties in the trial conduct and optimize the use of sites' resources. However, mainly due to lack of experience with risk management methodologies, sites are not currently implementing these strategies in the management of their trial-related operations. The development of a risk management tool for sites can be useful in this context.

دور المراجعة الداخلية في مكافحة الفساد وسوء استغلال السلطة في المملكة العربية السعودية

Objectives: Financial collapses, scandals and fraud have increased organizational interest in the role of internal auditing in modern business. This study aims to address corruption and abuse of power in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Method: To fulfil the main objective of this study, an analytical approach has been used to review previous studies. The importance of information technology and digitalization in achieving efficient internal auditing in combating corruption and abuse of power were also reviewed. Previous studies have been reviewed and the most important regulatory trends against corruption in Saudi Arabia have been analyzed. Results: Multiple concepts for corruption were discovered, but they entirety imply a breach of job duties and abuse of power. Internal audit strategies can prevent such because it is a tool of governance, risk management and control in general, in addition to being a means to fight corruption in particular. Conclusion: The existence of professional references, binding legislation and international support have proven the necessity for internal auditing to combat corruption and abuse of power.

Risk Management Effects of Insurance Purchase and Organization Participation: Which Is More Effective?

Insurance purchase and organization participation in risk management is of great practical significance for stabilizing agricultural production and household income. The aims of this study were to analyze farm households’ choices of insurance purchase and organization participation, and their effects on crop revenue and its higher-order moments using the multinomial switching endogenous regression (MESR) model. The results showed that the adoption of insurance and organization was significantly affected by household head characteristics, farm household characteristics, and cropland attributes. Insurance purchase, organization participation, and their joint adoption contributed to the increase in crop revenue and decrease in crop revenue variance, and the benefits were larger when adopting two risk management tools in combination. When skewness was taken into account in risk management analysis, insurance purchase, organization participation, and their joint adoption resulted in a reduction in the probability of crop failure, of which, participating in organizations was the most effective. Efforts should be put forth to improve the functioning and effectiveness of agricultural insurance and organization to promote the adoption of risk management tools.

A Bottom-up Look at Mutual Trust and the Legal Practice of the Aranyosi Test

This contribution offers an insight into the legal prac­tice of the Aranyosi test during the EAW proceedings in seven Member States, an outcome of the research conducted during the ImprovEAW Project. Only the executing judicial authori­ties of some Member States do trigger the test. Member States are roughly differentiated between those having facilities with usually bad or usually good detention conditions, promoting antagonistic relationships instead of equal partnership. The lack of streamlining of the communication when supplementary information is requested, the lack of common standards and approach towards guarantees lead to further misunderstand­ings and frustration. The findings of this research have revealed the importance of departing from a pure legal understanding of mutual trust and follow a more empirical, experiential or bot­tom-up concept. Mutual trust is not only a legal concept, but it underpins the legal culture of the cooperation and collegial attitudes of authorities towards one another. This expression of mutual trust remains quite undiscovered: how is miscom­munication affecting mutual trust? Do judicial authorities of legal systems express collegiality to one another? How do cul­tural aspects and preconceived ideas regarding the quality of other legal systems influence mutual trust? Accordingly, some suggestions have been made to improve the cooperation and the establishment of rapport when supplementary information is requested. Finally, I advocate for a more neutral view towards the Aranyosi test. As opposed to considering it as a supervisory mechanism, I have explored the idea of approaching it as a risk management tool: it tackles risks created by mutual trust. Such approach helps both sides to take responsibility to avert ad hoc risks, instead of experiencing Aranyosi as a testing moment. Such approach centres the real problem, i.e. the risks created by mutual trust for individuals and it can stimulate more proactive policy-making in this regard.