Preoperative Risk Assessment Tool Research Articles

Frailty in cardiothoracic surgery: systematic review of the literature.

A preoperative surgical risk analysis is necessary and important for predicting clinical and surgical outcomes in a clinical setting. Various tools for evaluating the patient characteristics in order to forecast perioperative clinical outcomes have previously been described; however, an objective and precise preoperative risk assessment has not yet been established. In the last decade, the concept of frailty, which is a geriatric assessment that identifies disabilities and weaknesses in patients, has been used in order to predict clinical mortality and morbidity following invasive surgical interventions because the prevalence of elderly patients among those undergoing surgical interventions is increasing. Since there is currently no single generally accepted clinical definition of frailty, many clinical modalities are needed to evaluate the patients' geriatric activity of daily living. Quantifying the quality of frailty is an evolving challenge for predicting surgical risks preoperatively. In recent years, with the development of transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI), this newly definitive preoperative surgical risk assessment tool, frailty, has become more important and is attracting interest in cardiothoracic surgical settings. Thus, this review summarized current consideration on the preoperative risk analysis by frailty as well as future perspectives and the potential of an ideal frailty risk assessment in cardiothoracic surgery, including the management of elderly patients and high-risk aortic valve stenosis by TAVI.

Development and Validation of a Risk Stratification Score for Ventral Incisional Hernia after Abdominal Surgery: Hernia Expectation Rates in Intra-Abdominal Surgery (The HERNIA Project)

Ventral incisional hernias (VIH) develop in up to 20% of patients after abdominal surgery. No widely applicable preoperative risk-assessment tool exists. We aimed to develop and validate a risk-assessment tool to predict VIH after abdominal surgery. A prospective study of all patients undergoing abdominal surgery was conducted at a single institution from 2008 to 2010. Variables were defined in accordance with the National Surgical Quality Improvement Project, and VIH was determined through clinical and radiographic evaluation. A multivariate Cox proportional hazard model was built from a development cohort (2008 to 2009) to identify predictors of VIH. The HERNIAscore was created by converting the hazards ratios (HR) to points. The predictive accuracy was assessed on the validation cohort (2010) using a receiver operator characteristic curve and calculating the area under the curve (AUC). Of 625 patients followed for a median of 41 months (range 0.3 to 64 months), 93 (13.9%) developed a VIH. The training cohort (n = 428, VIH = 70, 16.4%) identified 4 independent predictors: laparotomy (HR 4.77, 95% CI 2.61 to 8.70) or hand-assisted laparoscopy (HAL, HR 4.00, 95% CI 2.08 to 7.70), COPD (HR 2.35; 95% CI 1.44 to 3.83), and BMI ≥ 25 kg/m(2) (HR1.74; 95% CI 1.04 to 2.91). Factors that were not predictive included age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, albumin, immunosuppression, previous surgery, and suture material or technique. The predictive score had an AUC = 0.77 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.86) using the validation cohort (n = 197, VIH = 23, 11.6%). Using the HERNIAscore: HERNIAscore = 4(∗)Laparotomy+3(∗)HAL+1(∗)COPD+1(∗) BMI ≥ 25, 3 classes stratified the risk of VIH: class I (0 to 3 points),5.2%; class II (4 to 5 points),19.6%; and class III (6 points), 55.0%. The HERNIAscore accurately identifies patients at increased risk for VIH. Although external validation is needed, this provides a starting point to counsel patients and guide clinical decisions. Increasing the use of laparoscopy, weight-loss programs, community smoking prevention programs, and incisional reinforcement may help reduce rates of VIH.

Predicting Mortality and Morbidity After Elective Cardiac Surgery Using Vasoactive and Inflammatory Biomarkers With and Without the EuroSCORE Model

In cardiac surgery, preoperative mortality risk assessment tools like the EuroSCORE help to guide physicians in optimizing perioperative care of patients. We investigated the value of preoperative levels of inflammatory (procalcitonin [PCT]) and vasoactive (C-terminal pro-arginine vasopressin [CT-proAVP], midregional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide [MR-proANP], midregional proadrenomedullin [MR-proADM], and C-terminal pro-endothelin-1 [CT-proET-1]) biomarkers for risk assessment of mortality and morbidity and compared it with the EuroSCORE. We performed a prospective observational cohort study in a single-center academic medical hospital and analyzed 746 consecutive patients undergoing elective cardiac surgery. In a directly preoperative blood sample, we assessed PCT, CT-proAVP, MR-proANP, MR-proADM, and CT-proET-1 levels. In single-variable logistic regression models, all biomarkers predicted 30-day mortality. The biomarkers CT-proET-1 (C statistic, 0.785; 95% CI, 0.687-0.883) and MR-proADM (C statistic, 0.780; 95% CI, 0.671-0.889) predicted 30-day mortality. For the EuroSCORE, the C statistic was 0.689 (95% CI, 0.594-0.784). There was a significant improvement in the prediction of 30-day mortality when the EuroSCORE was combined with MR-proADM (C statistic, 0.792; 95% CI, 0.699-0.884) or CT-proET-1 (C statistic, 0.798; 95% CI, 0.715-0.880). The model with EuroSCORE, MR-proADM, and CT-proET1 had the highest C statistic of 0.803 (95% CI, 0.717-0.890) and was significantly better than the EuroSCORE alone. In elective cardiac surgery, preoperative levels of MR-proADM and CT-proET-1 are predictors of 30-day mortality and could improve the predictive accuracy of the EuroSCORE. Further research should confirm the place of these new biomarkers in the prediction of mortality and identification of patients at risk.

Assessing frailty in surgical candidates.

Older adults account for an increasingly large proportion of the population. These patients have more comorbidities as well as indications for surgical interventions. Current preoperative risk assessment tools have limited utility. This article describes methods of assessing patient frailty, which offers superior predictive power about postoperative complications, discharge disposition, and mortality.

Post-operative nausea and vomiting in the cardiac surgery population: Who is at risk?

ObjectivesPost-operative nausea and vomiting (PONV) is a common and distressing complication following cardiac surgery. Therefore, our primary objective was to explore the predictors of severe PONV in the cardiac surgery population. MethodsA retrospective study was completed on cardiac surgery patients (N = 150). A modified preoperative PONV risk assessment tool was utilized to identify patients at high and low risk for PONV. Results54% of the high-risk group versus 13% of the low-risk group experienced ≥2 nausea events in the early post-operative period (p < 0.0001). The high-risk group had a uniquely elevated and sustained number of PONV events post-operatively. History of PONV (p = 0.03) and female gender (p = 0.01) emerged as significant predictors of any nausea event. ConclusionsA specific PONV risk assessment tool may be useful for predicting those at highest risk following cardiac surgery. Further research is required to identify strategies to reduce PONV.

Do prostate cancer nomograms give accurate information when applied to European patients?

Objective. The aim of this study was to validate and compare the performance of preoperative risk assessment tools in a population of men treated with radical prostatectomy at a single European institution. Material and methods. Patients were identified from databases of radical prostatectomy between 1996 and 2011 from a single UK centre. Information was obtained on demographics, prostate-specific antigen, staging, biopsy and specimen histopathology, and follow-up. Data were inputted into the Memorial Sloan–Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC), Partin 1997 and Makarov/Partin 2007 nomograms, and the University of California San Francisco–Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment tool (UCSF-CAPRA). The risks of extracapsular extension (ECE), seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) and lymph-node involvement (LNI) were calculated and compared with known outcomes. Nomogram performance was measured using Hosmer–Lemeshow (HL) goodness-of-fit tests, calculating concordance indices (c-indices) and calibration curves. Results. Data were obtained for 541 patients. Prediction of ECE was relatively poor using all nomograms, with the Makarov/Partin 2007 the most accurate at prediction over the range of risk stratification (HL 9.9, c-index 0.62). Predictions of SVI and LNI were better than for ECE, with the MSKCC nomogram performing best for SVI (HL 10.9, c-index 0.73) and all nomograms performing well for LNI prediction (c-indices 0.8 to 0.815). CAPRA predicted best for SVI (OR 1.49, 95% confidence interval 1.27–1.74). Conclusions. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first head-to-head comparison of the accuracy of these commonly used risk calculators in a North European population. Caution should be used when counselling patients using nomograms. Although nomograms may be used as a guide, patients should be warned that they often have not been validated on different European populations and may give misleading information regarding a patient’s specific risks.

Perioperative Assessment of Elderly Surgical Patients

As the population continues to age, there will be a concomitant increase in the need for surgical intervention for a variety of disease processes for this group of patients. To date, surgical decision-making is overly subjective, and preoperative risk assessment tools are imprecise, lacking an ability to fully predict an elderly patient’s physiologic reserve to withstand the intended insult of surgery. Frailty is an emerging concept that incorporates multiple functional, cognitive, and physiologic measurements to better grasp a patient’s reserve. The preoperative measurement of frailty may offer an improved risk assessment tool to predict for adverse peri-operative outcomes, especially in the elderly population.

Preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing in England – a national survey

BackgroundCardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) has become well established in the preoperative assessment of patients presenting for major surgery in the United Kingdom. There is evidence supporting its use in risk-stratifying patients prior to major high-risk surgical procedures.We set out to establish how CPET services in England have developed since the only survey on this subject was undertaken in 2008 (J Intensive Care Soc 2009, 10:275–278).MethodsAvailability of preoperative CPET and contact details were collected via a telephone survey and email invites to complete the online survey were sent to all contacts. The survey was live during March and April 2011.ResultsWe received 123 (74%) responses from the 166 emails that were sent out. In total, 32% (53/166) of all adult anesthetic departments in England have access to preoperative CPET services and a further 4% (6) were in the process of setting up services. The number of departments offering preoperative CPET, including those in the process of setting up services, has risen from 42 in 2008 to 59 in 2011, a rise of over 40%. Only 61% of the clinics are run by anesthetists and 39% of clinics have trained cardiorespiratory technicians assisting in the performance of the test. Most of the clinics (55%) rely solely on a bicycle ergometer. Vascular surgical patients are the largest group of patients tested, and the majority of tests are run to a symptom-limited maximum. We estimate that 15,000 tests are performed annually for preoperative assessment in England. Only 37% of respondents were confident that the tests performed were being billed for.ConclusionsCPET is increasing in popularity as a preoperative risk assessment tool. There remains a lack of consistency in the way tests are reported and utilized. The results highlight the extent and diversity of the use of preoperative CPET and the potential for further research into its use in unstudied patient groups.

Increased preference of surface ablation over laser in situ keratomileusis between 2008&amp;ndash;2011 is correlated to risk of ecatasia

PurposeTo evaluate the trends in corneal refractive procedure selection for the correction of myopia, focusing on the relative proportions of laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) and surface ablation procedures.MethodsOnly eyes that underwent LASIK or surface ablation for the correction of myopia between 2008–2011 were included in this retrospective study. Additional recorded parameters included patient age, preoperative manifest refraction, corneal thickness, and calculated residual corneal bed thickness. A risk score was given to each eye, based on these parameters, according to the Ectasia Risk Factor Score System (ERFSS), without the preoperative corneal topography.ResultsThis study included 16,163 eyes, of which 38.4% underwent LASIK and 61.6% underwent surface ablation. The risk score correlated with procedure selection, with LASIK being preferred in eyes with a score of 0 and surface ablation in eyes with a score of 2 or higher. When controlling for age, preoperative manifest refraction, corneal thickness, and all parameters, the relative proportion of surface ablation compared with LASIK was found to have grown significantly during the study period.ConclusionsOur results indicate that with time, surface ablation tended to be performed more often than LASIK for the correction of myopia in our cohort. Increased awareness of risk factors and preoperative risk assessment tools, such as the ERFSS, have shifted the current practice of refractive surgery from LASIK towards surface ablation despite the former’s advantages, especially in cases in which the risk for ectasia is more than minimal (risk score 2 and higher).

When Is Death Inevitable after Emergency Laparotomy? Analysis of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Database

In an era of increasing demands to provide high-quality health care, surgeons need an accurate preoperative risk assessment tool to facilitate informed decision-making for themselves and their patients. Emergency laparotomy procedures have a high risk profile, but the currently available risk-assessment models for emergency laparotomy are either unreliable (eg, small sample size or single center study), difficult to calculate preoperatively, or are specific to the geriatric population. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database (2005 to 2009) was used to develop logistic regression models for 30-day mortality after emergency laparotomy. Two models were created, one with the knowledge of the postoperative diagnosis and one without. Models' calibration and discrimination were judged using the receiver operating characteristics curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. There were 37,553 patients who had undergone emergency laparotomy, with a 14% mortality rate. The American Society of Anesthesiologists classification system, functional status, sepsis, and age were the variables most significantly associated with mortality. Patients older than 90 years of age, with an American Society of Anesthesiologists class V, septic shock, dependent functional status, and abnormal white blood cell count have a <10% probability of survival. The models developed in this study have a high discriminative ability to stratify the operative risk in a broad range of acute abdominal emergencies. These data will assist surgeons, patients, and their families in making end-of-life decisions in the face of medical futility with greater certainty when emergency surgery is being contemplated.

Are the frail destined to fail? Frailty index as predictor of surgical morbidity and mortality in the elderly

America's aging population has led to an increase in the number of elderly patients necessitating emergency general surgery. Previous studies have demonstrated that increased frailty is a predictor of outcomes in medicine and surgical patients. We hypothesized that use of a modification of the Canadian Study of Health and Aging Frailty Index would be a predictor of morbidity and mortality in patients older than 60 years undergoing emergency general surgery. Data were obtained from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Participant Use Files database in compliance with the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Data Use Agreement. We selected all emergency cases in patients older than 60 years performed by general surgeons from 2005 to 2009. The effect of increasing frailty on multiple outcomes including wound infection, wound occurrence, any infection, any occurrence, and mortality was then evaluated. Total sample size was 35,334 patients. As the modified frailty index increased, associated increases occurred in wound infection, wound occurrence, any infection, any occurrence, and mortality. Logistic regression of multiple variables demonstrated that the frailty index was associated with increased mortality with an odds ratio of 11.70 (p < 0.001). Frailty index is an important predictive variable in emergency general surgery patients older than 60 years. The modified frailty index can be used to evaluate risk of both morbidity and mortality in these patients. Frailty index will be a valuable preoperative risk assessment tool for the acute care surgeon. Prognostic study, level II.

Transapical Minimally Invasive Aortic Valve Implantation and Conventional Aortic Valve Replacement in Octogenarians

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has been developed to minimize the operative trauma in high-risk patients. Patient selection for TAVI is still subject to debate and octogenarians are often regarded as high-risk patients. In this single-center study, data of 169 octogenarians who received conventional AVR (90) or TAVI (79) have been analyzed retrospectively according to the endpoint definitions of the Valve Academic Research Consortium to answer the following questions: (a) Should patients due to their age of 80 years or older be considered as high risk? (b) Is the EuroSCORE a suitable tool for estimating mortality after AVR or TAVI in octogenarians? (c) Is TAVI the procedure of choice for octogenarians? TAVI patients showed higher comorbid conditions concerning an existing renal dysfunction (31 vs. 56%, p = 0.001), peripheral vascular disease (6 vs. 30%, p < 0.001), diabetes (19% vs. 49%, p < 0.001), a decreased ejection fraction (LVEF < 30%: 2 vs. 13%, p < 0.05), and pulmonary hypertension (23 vs. 48%; p < 0.005) with an increase of the perioperative risk represented by logistic EuroSCORE (AVR 11% ± 1.27 vs. TAVI 38% ± 1.35; p < 0.0005) and STS Score (7% ± 0.52 vs. 14% ± 0.56; p < 0.0005). All-cause and cardiovascular-cause in-hospital or 30-day mortality was 5.6% (n = 5) and 3.4% (n = 3) in the AVR cohort and 8.8% (n = 7) and 7.6% (n = 6) in TAVI-patients (p = 0.55; p = 0.31), respectively. The overall combined safety endpoint at 30 days was 22.2% (n = 20) in AVR patients and 29.1% (n = 23) with regard to the TAVI group (p = 38). Analysis of cerebrovascular complications, vascular complications, and pacemaker revealed no significant differences. In the AVR group, actuarial survival at 6 months and 1 and 2 years was 89, 78, and 74%, respectively. Data of the TAVI patients are only available for a follow-up of 6 months and revealed a survival of 85%. AVR and TAVI in octogenarians show comparable results, but the analyzed cohorts differ significantly in their risk profile. The results indicate an overrated perioperative mortality using the EuroSCORE but on the other hand logistic EuroSCORE represents articulately the different risk profile of the two groups. For this reason, we consider the EuroSCORE still to be a useful tool for preoperative risk assessment. Moreover, octogenarians cannot per se be considered as "true high risk" patients. Differentiated clinical judgment is most important for reasonable decision making.

THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO CANCER OF THE PROSTATE RISK ASSESSMENT SCORE: A STRAIGHTFORWARD AND RELIABLE PREOPERATIVE PREDICTOR OF DISEASE RECURRENCE AFTER RADICAL PROSTATECTOMY

Multivariate prognostic instruments aim to predict risk of recurrence among patients with localized prostate cancer. We devised a novel risk assessment tool which would be a strong predictor of outcome across various levels of risk, and which could be easily applied and intuitively understood. We studied 1,439 men diagnosed between 1992 and 2001 who had undergone radical prostatectomy and were followed in the Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavor (CaPSURE) database, a longitudinal, community based disease registry of patients with prostate cancer. Disease recurrence was defined as prostate specific antigen (PSA) 0.2 ng/ml or greater on 2 consecutive occasions following prostatectomy or a second cancer treatment more than 6 months after surgery. The University of California, San Francisco-Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (UCSF-CAPRA) score was developed using preoperative PSA, Gleason score, clinical T stage, biopsy results and age. The index was developed and validated using Cox proportional hazards and life table analyses. A total of 210 patients (15%) had recurrence, 145 by PSA criteria and 65 by second treatment. Based on the results of the Cox analysis, points were assigned based on PSA (0 to 4 points), Gleason score (0 to 3), T stage (0 to 1), age (0 to 1) and percent of biopsy positive cores (0 to 1). The UCSF-CAPRA score range is 0 to 10, with roughly double the risk of recurrence for each 2-point increase in score. Recurrence-free survival at 5 years ranged from 85% for a UCSF-CAPRA score of 0 to 1 (95% CI 73%-92%) to 8% for a score of 7 to 10 (95% CI 0%-28%). The concordance index for the UCSF-CAPRA score was 0.66. The UCSF-CAPRA score is a straightforward yet powerful preoperative risk assessment tool. It must be externally validated in future studies.