Tobacco Expenditure Research Articles

Alcohol consumption and community hospital admissions in the United States: a dynamic regression analysis, 1950–1992

The annual time-series analysis examines the impact of changes in per capita alcohol consumption (NIAAA,AEDS) on changes in community hospital admission rates (AHA) in the United States from 1950 to 1992 (n = 43). Increases in per capita alcohol consumption were expected to increase hospital admission rates contemporaneously and several years thereafter following an exponential risk function. Distributed lag models based on differenced data controlling for changes in: (1) per capita cigarette consumption; (2) private hospital insurance coverage; (3) the drinking age population; (4) per capita disposable personal income; and (5) health care regulatory interventions show a contemporaneous effect of per capita alcohol consumption on hospital admission rates. The time-series analyses imply that between 22-26% of US community hospital admissions are alcohol related. A comparable analysis indicates that per capita alcohol and tobacco expenditures contribute to approximately 28% of US community hospital admissions. The absence of statistically significant lagged effects is inconsistent with an exponentially declining risk functions. However, the contemporaneous effects of per capita alcohol and tobacco consumption suggest that a reduction in smoking and drinking will produce quick reductions in morbidity and hospitalizations.

The Economic Implications of Tobacco Product Sales in a Nontobacco State

The tobacco industry claims that tobacco makes a significant economic contribution to each of the states in the United States. We sought to determine whether Michigan, a nontobacco state, would reap more economic benefits from the presence or absence of tobacco product sales. Computer simulation of the Michigan economy, with and without tobacco product sales, for the years 1992 through 2005. We simulated Michigan's economy with tobacco expenditures eliminated or reduced and the equivalent spending redistributed to other goods and services, according to consumers' normal spending patterns. We compare these results with baseline forecasts of the economy. Numbers of jobs and tax revenues. Michigan would have had 5600 more jobs in 1992 had there been no expenditure on tobacco products, with equivalent spending redistributed to other goods and services (and to other taxes, to replace half of lost cigarette excise tax revenues). By the year 2005, a tobacco-free Michigan would still have almost 1500 more jobs than it will have if sales trends for tobacco products continue (ie, gradually declining over time). If, instead of tobacco expenditures ceasing, the contemporary rate of decline in tobacco consumption had doubled, the state would have had over 300 more jobs in 1992 and would have nearly 800 more in 2005. With cigarette excise tax revenues not replaced, the elimination of spending on tobacco products would have decreased Michigan's tax revenues by $254 million in 1992. The more realistic doubling of the expected decline in smoking would have decreased revenues by $14 million that year. Reducing or eliminating tobacco product spending in Michigan will increase employment in the state, as well as health.

A NOTE ON COMPUTATION OF THE DOUBLE‐HURDLE MODEL WITH DEPENDENCE WITH AN APPLICATION TO TOBACCO EXPENDITURE

ABSTRACTThis note shows how the sample likelihood of the full double‐hurdle model with dependence can be reformulated to allow estimation with standard econometric software. An illustrative example is provided, using data on tobacco expenditure by households in the 1984 UK Family Expenditure Survey.

Geographic pattern of lung cancer in Japan and its environmental correlations.

Standardized lung cancer mortality ratios, 1969–1978, for basic administrative units of Japan were related to various environmental characteristics by multiple regression analysis. Elevated lung cancer mortality was demonstrated in the areas along the sea coast, particularly those with fishing ports, low socioeconomic status, and high level of air pollution. High mortality was also observed in coal mining areas and areas with shipyards. Data on tobacco expenditures provided partial adjustment for the effects of cigarette smoking on these correlations.

Statistical models for zero expenditures in household budgets

Household budget surveys are an important source of data on consumer’s expenditure, not just for individual consumers, but also for estimating national aggregates. However, it is a widespread finding that for certain commodities, most notably tobacco and alcohol, the estimate from the household survey falls short of the known consumption total calculated (with some confidence) from data on production, imports, exports and excise duties. For example, in the British Family Expenditure Survey (with which we shall largely be concerned) total tobacco expenditure was underestimated in 1976 by 21 percent [see Kemsley, Redpath and Holmes (1980, p. 51)]. Much of this understatement, together with that on alcohol, is thought to occur because of the design of the survey which excludes many persons amongst whom consumption of such items is thought to be atypically high (e.g. prisoners, hoteliers and their residents, merchant seamen). Even so, the possibility remains that some of the understatement is due to various types of misreporting by households included in the survey. In this paper we consider a model in which the standard tobit specification [Tobin (1958)] is supplemented by the operation of a simple binary censor. The tobit model is essentially a linear regression model in which non-positive observations of the dependent variable are replaced by zero. We take this specification as our starting point but add a second censoring process that randomly replaces a fraction of the observations generated by the tobit model bv zeroes. The combined model can serve as a representation of several types of

On the Functional Form of Engel Curves: The Australian Household Expenditure Survey 1975–76*

This paper considers the properties of a class of models which is based on the Addilog demand system. These models not only fulfil the adding‐up criterion but also ensure that the predicted expenditures are non‐negative and a subset of these models permits the existence of saturation levels for certain commodities. A goodness of fit comparison between this class and other systems of Engel curves favours the Addilog model. The estimated expenditure elasticities compare favourably with previous estimates of Australian household expenditure patterns and it is observed that the elasticities for health and alcohol and tobacco expenditures have decreased substantially from their levels in the late 1960s.