Tipping Point Model Research Articles

Improved prediction for failure time of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs): A physics-based machine learning approach

Multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC) play a vital role in electronic systems, and their reliability is of critical importance. The ongoing advancement in MLCC manufacturing has improved capacitive volumetric density for both low and high voltage devices; however, concerns about long-term stability under higher fields and temperatures are always a concern, which impact their reliability and lifespan. Consequently, predicting the mean time to failure (MTTF) for MLCCs remains a challenge due to the limitations of existing models. In this study, we develop a physics-based machine learning approach using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting method to predict the MTTF of X7R MLCCs under various temperature and voltage conditions. We employ a transfer learning framework to improve prediction accuracy for test conditions with limited data and to provide predictions for test conditions where no experimental data exists. We compare our model with the conventional Eyring model (EM) and, more recently, the tipping point model (TPM) in terms of accuracy and performance. Our results show that the machine learning model consistently outperforms both the EM and TPM, demonstrating superior accuracy and stability across different conditions. Our model also exhibits a reliable performance for untested voltage and temperature conditions, making it a promising approach for predicting MTTF in MLCCs.

(492) The Sexual Tipping Point®: Why We Should Employ A “Biomedical-psychosocial & Cultural Model Versus, The Current “Bio-psychosocial” One

Abstract Introduction Healthcare professionals need to embrace the term “Biomedical-psychosocial & Cultural” to describe our model for understanding, diagnosing, and treating sexual disorders. The “Bio-psychosocial model,” widely accepted by mental health professionals, is progressively the predominant view of physicians generally. However, it is incomplete and represents an outdated over-reaction to the formerly exclusively held “Biomedical Model.” Additionally, the term “Cultural” should be added our model’s lexicon. Healthcare’s “biomedical” view of disease was upended with the publication of Engel’s (1977) “biopsychosocial model”, which emphasized multiple etiological determinants. Evidence gradually accumulated that a combined pharmacologic and psychotherapeutic approaches were the most effective treatment for most conditions. Urologists were late to this realization, in part because of sildenafil’s successful launch (1998), which catalyzed urology’s ascendancy over other specialties (psychiatry, psychology, and gynecology) which traditionally managed sexual issues. The educational efforts of sexual medicine societies (ISSM, SMSNA, ISSWSH, etc.) in the early 21st century helped rebalance appreciation for multidisciplinary expertise and multidimensional understanding. Subsequently, most sexual medicine specialists have adopted a “bio-psychosocial model,” recognizing that sexual disorders always have a psychosocial component even when organicity is significant. But it is time to change terminology again, to incorporate “biomedical” and “cultural” to capture a better understanding of sexual disorder etiology and treatment. Why? The last 25 years have seen many significant advances in our capacity to identify biological causes/correlates (imaging, etc.) of sexual disorders. Additionally, pharmaceutical marketing success has generated the greatest levels of drug consumption in history, including drugs to improve sexual functioning. But there is an ever-increasing list of disease-treating drugs with anti-sexual side effects, which often cause/contribute to sexual disorders. Changing medication, dosing patterns or timing sometimes helps overcome negative side effects. Pro-sexual drugs (e.g., PDE5s) sometimes reverse side-effects. But iatrogenic factors’ role in sexual disorder(s) etiology is still not fully appreciated. Incorporating the term “Biomedical” back into our model’s lexicon will help enhance recognition of that reality. The need to incorporate the term “culture” within our sexuality models, is best exemplified by current discussions surrounding gender and the continuing controversy as to what constitutes “normal.” The various “identity movements,” advancements and their messaged tenants of the late 20th and early 21st century (amplified by social media), have resulted in raised international consciousness of additional psychosocial and cultural factors which should at least be considered when diagnosing and/or treating sexual disorders. The Sexual Tipping Point Model’s® (STP) dynamic framework provides for continuous and evolving evaluation which recognizes cultural context, while allowing for better formulation of needed clinical intervention(s) whether biomedical and/or psychosocial. Objective Advocating healthcare professionals adopt a “biomedical-psychosocial and cultural” model to better understand, diagnose and treat sexual disorders. Methods Literature review. Results “Bio-psychosocial” models may result in the risk of under-emphasizing biomedical and cultural factors’ role in sexual disorder etiology and treatment. Conclusions Healthcare professional nomenclature should employ “Biomedical-psychosocial & Cultural,” used by the STP as the phrase that best describes our model for understanding sexual response and for diagnosing and treating its disorders. The public could then be educated accordingly. Disclosure Any of the authors act as a consultant, employee or shareholder of an industry for: Merck, Palatin, Pfizer, Sprout.

The shift from disbelieving underperformance to recognising failure: A tipping point model.

Coming face to face with a trainee who needs to be failed is a stern test for many supervisors. In response, supervisors have been encouraged to report evidence of failure through numerous assessment redesigns. And yet, there are lingering signs that some remain reluctant to engage in assessment processes that could alter a trainee's progression in the programme. Failure is highly consequential for all involved and, although rare, requires explicit study. Recent work identified a phase of disbelief that preceded identification of underperformance. What remains unknown is how supervisors come to recognise that a trainee needs to be failed. Following constructivist grounded theory methodology, 42 physicians and surgeons in British Columbia, Canada shared their experiences supervising trainees who profoundly underperformed, required extensive remediation or were dismissed from the programme. We identified recurring themes using an iterative, constant comparative process. The shift from disbelieving underperformance to recognising failure involves three patterns: accumulation of significant incidents, discovery of an egregious error after negligible deficits or illumination of an overlooked deficit when pointed out by someone else. Recognising failure was accompanied by anger, certainty and a sense of duty to prevent harm. Coming to the point of recognising that a trainee needs to fail is akin to the psychological process of a tipping point where people first realise that noise is signal and cross a threshold where the pattern is no longer an anomaly. The co-occurrence of anger raises the possibility for emotions to be a driver of, and not only a barrier to, recognising failure. This warrants caution because tipping points, and anger, can impede detection of improvement. Our findings point towards possibilities for supporting earlier identification of underperformance and overcoming reluctance to report failure along with countermeasures to compensate for difficulties in detecting improvement once failure has been verified.

An integrated model to assess and treat compulsive sexual behaviour disorder.

Contrary to common belief, hypersexual or compulsive sexual behaviour disorder is not a current fashion diagnosis. Nevertheless, the introduction of dedicated diagnostic guidelines for International Classification of Diseases 11th Revision (ICD-11) brings an opportunity for more accurate diagnosis and, therefore, improved research into the disorder's aetiology, assessment and therapy. A considerable proportion of both men and women consider themselves to have a problem with pornography and an even greater proportion experience their sexual behaviour as insufficiently controllable. For these people, the interplay between excitatory and inhibitory factors could be in dysbalance. In this context, biological correlates are important, but social factors, such as negative attitudes towards pornography or hostile attitudes to sexuality, also have a role. In patients with compulsive sexual behaviour disorder, excessive pornography consumption, masturbation and/or promiscuity that are out of control and lead to distress and impairment are usually present. Differential diagnoses, such as neuropsychiatric syndromes that can exhibit hypersexuality as a symptom, such as frontal lobe lesions, should be investigated and treated, as should comorbid disorders such as depression. Therapeutic approaches can be based on the Dual-Control Model and the Sexual Tipping Point Model. In each patient, an individualized therapeutic approach is multimodal and includes psychopharmaceuticals such as selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and naltrexone as well as specific psychotherapeutic approaches. The efficacy of some therapeutic approaches has now also been supported by initial randomized controlled trials in this patient population.

Sex Coaching for Non-Sexologist Physicians: How to Use the Sexual Tipping Point Model

Sex Coaching for Non-Sexologist Physicians: How to Use the Sexual Tipping Point Model

State Capacity and Welfare Politics in India: Implementing the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme in Undivided Andhra Pradesh

This article argues that the Indian state can develop the capacity to deliver economic rights in a citizen-friendly way, despite serious challenges posed by patronage politics and clientelism. Clientelistic politics reveals why the Indian state fails to deliver the basic rights such as the right to work, health and education. We argue that the ability of the state to deliver owes a lot to bureaucratic puzzling and political powering over developmental ideas in a path-dependent way. We combine powering and puzzling within the state to argue the case for how these ideas tip after they have gained a fair amount of traction within the state. We test the powering and puzzling leading to a tipping point model on the implementation of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) in undivided Andhra Pradesh (AP). How and why did undivided AP develop the capacity to make reach employment to the rural poor, when many other states failed to implement the right to work in India?

Psychosexual therapy for delayed ejaculation based on the Sexual Tipping Point model.

The Sexual Tipping Point® (STP) model is an integrated approach to the etiology, diagnosis and treatment of men with delayed ejaculation (DE), including all subtypes manifesting ejaculatory delay or absence [registered trademark owned by the MAP Educational Fund, a 501(c)(3) public charity]. A single pathogenetic pathway does not exist for sexual disorders generally and that is also true for DE specifically. Men with DE have various bio-psychosocial-behavioral & cultural predisposing, precipitating, maintaining, and contextual factors which trigger, reinforce, or worsen the probability of DE occurring. Regardless of the degree of organic etiology present, DE is exacerbated by insufficient stimulation: an inadequate combination of “friction and fantasy”. High frequency negative thoughts may neutralize erotic cognitions (fantasy) and subsequently delay, ameliorate, or inhibit ejaculation, while partner stimulation (friction) may prove unsatisfying. Assessment requires a thorough sexual history including inquiry into masturbatory methods. Many men with DE engage in an idiosyncratic masturbatory style, defined as a masturbation technique not easily duplicated by the partner’s hand, mouth, or vagina. The clinician’s most valuable diagnostic tool is a focused sex history (sex status). Differentiate DE from other sexual problems and review the conditions under which the man can ejaculate. Perceived partner attractiveness, the use of fantasy during sex, anxiety-surrounding coitus and masturbatory patterns require meticulous exploration. Identify important DE causes by juxtaposing an awareness of his cognitions and the sexual stimulation experienced during masturbation, versus a partnered experience. Assist the man in identifying behaviors that enhance immersion in excitation and minimize inhibiting thoughts, in order to reach ejaculation in his preferred manner. Discontinuing, reducing or altering masturbation is often required, which evokes patient resistance. Coaching tips are offered on how to ensure adherence to this suspension, manage resistance and facilitate success. Depending on motivation level, masturbation interruption may be compromised and negotiated. Encourage a man who continues to masturbate to alter style (“switch hands”) and to approximate the stimulation likely to be experienced with his partner. Success will require most men to be taught to learn bodily movements and fantasies that approximate the thoughts and sensations experienced in masturbation. Fertility issues, as well as patient/partner anger are important causational factors, which often require individual and/or conjoint consultation. Drug treatment would benefit men particularly with severe DE, regardless of concomitant psychosocial-behavioral and cultural complications. When and if a safe effective medication for DE becomes available, this author’s transdisciplinary perspective supports appropriate medication use when integrated with counseling. This approach emphasizes the utility of a biopsychosocial-cultural perspective combined with special attention to the patient’s narrative. Treatment is patient-centered, holistic and integrates a variety of therapies as needed.

Why the Sexual Tipping Point® Model?

The editorial thread of Current Sexual Health Reports aspires to cultivate a biopsychosocial-behavioral and cultural perspective for the reader that also results in more healthcare professionals embracing the importance of a transdisciplinary approach that integrates counseling with current and emerging medical/surgical techniques for the treatment of male and female sexual disorders (Perelman in Curr Sex Health Rep, 7(1):1–2, 2015). Supporting a related goal in 2011, the author founded the MAP Education & Research Fund, a 501(c)(3) public charity dedicated to educating healthcare providers that sexual health is more than just biology. The Fund’s website, mapedfund.org, was just launched in order to offer the resources of its Sexual Tipping Point (STP) model for free! It remains critical to advance a model that would help students, professionals, and the public alike understand that sex is always both “Mental And Physical.” All the biopsychosocial-behavioral and cultural models of sexual dysfunction provide a compelling argument for sexual medicine treatments that integrate sex counseling and medical and/or surgical treatments. Given the choice of so many different biopsychosocial-cultural models, why embrace the Sexual Tipping Point model? Perhaps, the greatest advantage of the STP model is the ease with which it provides clinicians as well as their patients (and their partners) with a common sense explanation of sexual problems and potential solutions. At Weill Cornell Medicine, when contemplating the clinical need for understanding etiology, diagnosis, and treatment, we find the Sexual Tipping Point both helpful and convenient.

Global Warming and a Potential Tipping Point in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation: The Role of Risk Aversion

The risk of catastrophes is one of the greatest threats of climate change. Yet, conventional assumptions shared by many integrated assessment models such as DICE lead to the counterintuitive result that higher concern about climate change risks does not lead to stronger near-term abatement efforts. This paper examines whether this result still holds in a refined DICE model that employs the Epstein–Zin utility specification and that is fully coupled with a dynamic tipping point model describing the evolution of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). Risk is captured by the possibility of a future collapse of the circulation and it is nourished by fat-tailed uncertainty about climate sensitivity. This uncertainty is assumed to resolve in the middle of the second half of this century and the near-term abatement efforts, which are undertaken before that point of time, can be adjusted afterwards. These modelling choices allow posing the question of whether aversion to this specific tipping point risk has a significant effect on near-term policy efforts. The simulations, however, provide evidence that it has little effect. For the more likely climate sensitivity values, a collapse of the circulation would occur in the more distant future. In this case, acting after learning can prevent the catastrophe, implying the remarkable insensitivity of the near-term policy to risk aversion. For the rather unlikely and high climate sensitivity values, the expected damage costs are not great enough to justify taking very costly measures to safeguard the THC. Our simulations also provide some indication that risk aversion might have some effect on near-term policy, if inertia limiting the speed of decarbonisation is accounted for. As it is highly uncertain how restrictive this kind of inertia will be, future research might investigate the effects of risk aversion if additional uncertainty about inertia is considered.

The Asian Grocery Store-Based Cancer Education Program: Creating New Education Modules.

Operating since 1994, the UCSD Moores Cancer Center's Asian Grocery Store-Based Cancer Education Program (the Program) is a proven and sustainable strategy for disseminating cancer and poison control information to Asian and Pacific Islander (API) communities. This paper describes the process taken to identify health topics that can be readily addressed within the Program's infrastructure and reports results of the pilot testing of the educational module that was developed by following that process. The development of each new module is guided by the Health Belief Model and the Tipping Point Model. The process starts with the selection of a health topic demonstrating pressing need and treatment options in the API community. Then, using the Pareto principle, reasonably modifiable risk factors are chosen to be addressed in the module. "Sticky messaging" for the modifiable risk factors is developed to package the health information as memorable and transmissible calls-to-action. Finally, grocery store outreaches were used to pilot test the new module to assess its effectiveness at facilitating health care information to API community members. By adhering to the steps described in this paper, the authors were able to: (1) select liver cancer as a pressing API health issue that could be positively impacted by the Program; (2) identify reasonably modifiable risk factors for the chosen health issue; (3) generate compelling call-to-action messages to decrease risk of exposure; and (4) demonstrate the cultural and linguistic alignment of the liver cancer control module. The development and testing of new health education modules follow a methodical process guided by scientific principles. Understanding and employing the elements of an existing evidence-based and sustainable health education program can increase the likelihood of success in addressing the health needs of the API community.

From Foe to Friend? Business, the Tipping Point and U.S. Climate Politics

This article develops a model for analyzing corporate strategy formation and regulatory change in environmental politics. The model emphasize how conditions that materialize through the dynamic interplay between corporate preferences and multilevel environmental governance can trigger the emergence of “tipping points,” at which a critical mass of leading industries begin to push for regulatory change. It is argued that tipping points often generate new political momentum and may lead to considerable progress in political and legislative bargaining. The model is applied to a case study of U.S. climate politics between 1990 and 2010. The case demonstrates that the tipping point model provides a plausible account of the intersection between business strategies and the failures and successes of federal climate action in this period.

Hearts and Minds: The Theory Oriented Anti-'Daily-Life Corruption' Model

In this paper, we analyze daily-life corruption on the micro-level that affects average citizens in their daily lives. One way to illustrate this is by using what we call The Tipping Point model (Schelling, T., Micromotives and Macrobehavior, 1978). Similar to the spirit of Schelling's tipping model, we study how the preferences of potentially corrupt individuals influence others to exhibit similarly corrupt behavior. Here, we define the tipping point and show the requirements necessary to create a tipping point in the context of corruption. In this model, we introduce variables representing punishment and reward. We also show that there is an inverse relationship between the probability that cheaters will be caught and the tipping point. By analogy, the higher the reward level awarded to the non-cheaters if the cheaters are caught, the lower the tipping point. In addition, the lower the level of intimidation imposed on the non-cheaters if the cheaters are not caught, the lower the tipping point. The policy-making implications of this should focus on introducing a punishment for cheaters, strengthening legal enforcement to increase the probability of catching corrupt individuals, and increasing the rewards given to whistle-blowers who report corrupt practices while providing them with more protection. We further discuss other issues such as legal failures, increasing transparency, and how one should conduct an anti-corruption campaign.

Road Traffic Change: A Catalyst for Segregation?

The paper presents the results from a study of whether road traffic changes can trigger segregation processes in accordance with Thomas Schelling's 'tipping-point model'. Based on register information of all persons who have lived in inner Oslo east in five neighbourhood types that differ with respect to road traffic development during the 1990s, it is concluded that there is a pattern of relocation quite consistent with the tipping-point model but only for some groups and in some neighbourhood types. There are more rapid and profound patterns of relocation in neighbourhoods with road traffic increase, than in neighbourhoods with traffic reductions and, in particular, families with children relocate in response to changes in the physical and social characteristics of the neighbourhood.

An Examination of an Ecological Model of Neighborhood Change, Which Employs a Biased Estimation Technique

The problems created by multicollinearity when estimating a single equation least squares model are well-known. This problem is particularly troublesome in ecological research because of the heavy reliance of this field on census data and other secondary data sources. This paper explores one solution to the problem of multicollinearity in ecological research—ridge regression. Using census-tract data from Cleveland, Ohio for the years 1960–1970, an ecological model, known as the tipping-point model, of neighborhood change, was evaluated. It was determined that multicollinearity was a problem. To minimize the detrimental effects of multicollinearity and to facilitate structural interpretation, the model was reestimated with the ridge regression technique. The result was a total mean square error that was significantly smaller than the total variance resulting from an ordinary least squares solution. Hence, the estimates of the coefficients produced by the ridge regression were closer, on the average, to the true population parameters than the ordinary least squares estimates. Results of the ordinary least squares and ridge regression are presented and discussed and the utility of ridge regression in ecological research is evaluated.

The Tipping-Point Model: Prediction of Change in the Racial Composition of Cleveland, Ohio, Neighborhoods, 1940–1970

The tipping-point model of neighborhood change is tested for the years 1940–1970. The model posits that once a white area reaches a certain percentage of Negro residents the area will become completely Negro. Recent work by Steinnes (1977), who used a regression analysis of a sample of Chicago census tracts, supports the tipping-point concept. The present replication with Cleveland, Ohio, data differs from the earlier work in three ways: (1) control for sectoral growth patterns; (2) use of the entire population of Cleveland's tracts, rather than a sample of tracts, to determine whether the model is generalizable to the entire city; and (3) an expansion of the time frame of the study. The tipping-point model does not appear to be generalizable to the entire city of Cleveland. The findings suggest that social, economic, and historical factors need to be included in the model.

Reply to Carsten Haaland's Comment

Previous articleNext article No AccessCommentary and DebateReply to Carsten Haaland's CommentRoland K. HawkesRoland K. Hawkes Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUS Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail SectionsMoreDetailsFiguresReferencesCited by American Journal of Sociology Volume 80, Number 5Mar., 1975 Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/225954 Citations: 2Citations are reported from Crossref Copyright 1975 The University of ChicagoPDF download Crossref reports the following articles citing this article:F. Martin Hankins The Spatial Determinants of Neighborhood Structure: Cleveland, Ohio, 1930–1980, Sociological Focus 24, no.11 (Feb 1991): 29–44.https://doi.org/10.1080/00380237.1991.10570578W A Schwab, E Marsh The Tipping-Point Model: Prediction of Change in the Racial Composition of Cleveland, Ohio, Neighborhoods, 1940–1970, Environment and Planning A 12, no.44 (Apr 1980): 385–398.https://doi.org/10.1068/a120385