Tipping Elements Research Articles

On Thin Ice: Solar Geoengineering to Manage Tipping Element Risks in the Cryosphere by 2040

AbstractTipping elements are features of the climate system that can display self‐reinforcing and non‐linear responses if pushed beyond a certain threshold (the “tipping point”). Models suggest that we may surpass several of these tipping points in the next few decades, irrespective of which emissions pathway humanity follows. Some tipping elements reside in the Arctic and Antarctic and could potentially be avoided or arrested via a stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) program applied only at the poles. This paper considers the utility of proactively developing the capacity to respond to emergent tipping element threats at the poles as a matter of risk management. It then examines both the air and ground infrastructure that would be required to operationalize such capability by 2040 and finds that this would require a funded launch decision by a financially credible actor by roughly 2030.

Effect of Regional Marine Cloud Brightening Interventions on Climate Tipping Elements

AbstractIt has been proposed that increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) driven climate tipping point risks may prompt consideration of solar radiation modification (SRM) climate intervention to reduce those risks. Here, we study marine cloud brightening (MCB) SRM interventions in three subtropical oceanic regions using Community Earth System Model 2 experiments. We assess the MCB impact on tipping element‐related metrics to estimate the extent to which such interventions might reduce tipping element risks. Both the pattern and magnitude of the MCB cooling depend strongly on location of the MCB intervention. We find the MCB cooling effect reduces most tipping element impacts; though differences in MCB versus GHG climate response patterns mean MCB is an imperfect remedy. However, MCB applied in certain regions may exacerbate certain GHG tipping element impacts. Thus, it is crucial to carefully consider the pattern of MCB interventions and their teleconnected responses to avoid unintended climate effects.

Describing complex interactions of social-ecological systems for tipping point assessments: an analytical framework

Humans play an interconnecting role in social-ecological systems (SES), they are part of these systems and act as agents of their destruction and regulation. This study aims to provide an analytical framework, which combines the concept of SES with the concept of tipping dynamics. As a result, we propose an analytical framework describing relevant dynamics and feedbacks within SES based on two matrixes: the “tipping matrix” and the “cross-impact matrix.” We take the Southwestern Amazon as an example for tropical regions at large and apply the proposed analytical framework to identify key underlying sub-systems within the study region: the soil ecosystem, the household livelihood system, the regional social system, and the regional climate system, which are interconnected through a network of feedbacks. We consider these sub-systems as tipping elements (TE), which when put under stress, can cross a tipping point (TP), resulting in a qualitative and potentially irreversible change of the respective TE. By systematically assessing linkages and feedbacks within and between TEs, our proposed analytical framework can provide an entry point for empirically assessing tipping point dynamics such as “tipping cascades,” which means that the crossing of a TP in one TE may force the tipping of another TE. Policy implications: The proposed joint description of the structure and dynamics within and across SES in respect to characteristics of tipping point dynamics promotes a better understanding of human-nature interactions and critical linkages within regional SES that may be used for effectively informing and directing empirical tipping point assessments, monitoring or intervention purposes. Thereby, the framework can inform policy-making for enhancing the resilience of regional SES.

Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements

AbstractTipping elements are components of the Earth system which may respond nonlinearly to anthropogenic climate change by transitioning toward substantially different long‐term states upon passing key thresholds or “tipping points.” In some cases, such changes could produce additional greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing that could compound global warming. Improved understanding of tipping elements is important for predicting future climate risks and their impacts. Here we review mechanisms, predictions, impacts, and knowledge gaps associated with 10 notable Earth system components proposed to be tipping elements. We evaluate which tipping elements are approaching critical thresholds and whether shifts may manifest rapidly or over longer timescales. Some tipping elements have a higher risk of crossing tipping points under middle‐of‐the‐road emissions pathways and will possibly affect major ecosystems, climate patterns, and/or carbon cycling within the 21st century. However, literature assessing different emissions scenarios indicates a strong potential to reduce impacts associated with many tipping elements through climate change mitigation. The studies synthesized in our review suggest most tipping elements do not possess the potential for abrupt future change within years, and some proposed tipping elements may not exhibit tipping behavior, rather responding more predictably and directly to the magnitude of forcing. Nevertheless, uncertainties remain associated with many tipping elements, highlighting an acute need for further research and modeling to better constrain risks.

Teleconnections among tipping elements in the Earth system

Tipping elements are components of the Earth system that may shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another at specific thresholds. It is not well understood to what degree tipping of one system can influence other regions or tipping elements. Here, we propose a climate network approach to analyse the global impacts of a prominent tipping element, the Amazon Rainforest Area (ARA). We find that the ARA exhibits strong correlations with regions such as the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and West Antarctic ice sheet. Models show that the identified teleconnection propagation path between the ARA and the TP is robust under climate change. In addition, we detect that TP snow cover extent has been losing stability since 2008. We further uncover that various climate extremes between the ARA and the TP are synchronized under climate change. Our framework highlights that tipping elements can be linked and also the potential predictability of cascading tipping dynamics.

Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest

Tipping elements are nonlinear subsystems of the Earth system that have the potential to abruptly shift to another state if environmental change occurs close to a critical threshold with large consequences for human societies and ecosystems. Among these tipping elements may be the Amazon rainforest, which has been undergoing intensive anthropogenic activities and increasingly frequent droughts. Here, we assess how extreme deviations from climatological rainfall regimes may cause local forest collapse that cascades through the coupled forest-climate system. We develop a conceptual dynamic network model to isolate and uncover the role of atmospheric moisture recycling in such tipping cascades. We account for heterogeneity in critical thresholds of the forest caused by adaptation to local climatic conditions. Our results reveal that, despite this adaptation, a future climate characterized by permanent drought conditions could trigger a transition to an open canopy state particularly in the southern Amazon. The loss of atmospheric moisture recycling contributes to one-third of the tipping events. Thus, by exceeding local thresholds in forest adaptive capacity, local climate change impacts may propagate to other regions of the Amazon basin, causing a risk of forest shifts even in regions where critical thresholds have not been crossed locally.

Proxy Voting for the Earth System: Institutional Shareholder Governance of Global Tipping Elements

Proxy Voting for the Earth System: Institutional Shareholder Governance of Global Tipping Elements

Complex networks of interacting stochastic tipping elements: Cooperativity of phase separation in the large-system limit.

Tipping elements in the Earth system have received increased scientific attention over recent years due to their nonlinear behavior and the risks of abrupt state changes. While being stable over a large range of parameters, a tipping element undergoes a drastic shift in its state upon an additional small parameter change when close to its tipping point. Recently, the focus of research broadened towards emergent behavior in networks of tipping elements, like global tipping cascades triggered by local perturbations. Here, we analyze the response to the perturbation of a single node in a system that initially resides in an unstable equilibrium. The evolution is described in terms of coupled nonlinear equations for the cumulants of the distribution of the elements. We show that drift terms acting on individual elements and offsets in the coupling strength are subdominant in the limit of large networks, and we derive an analytical prediction for the evolution of the expectation (i.e., the first cumulant). It behaves like a single aggregated tipping element characterized by a dimensionless parameter that accounts for the network size, its overall connectivity, and the average coupling strength. The resulting predictions are in excellent agreement with numerical data for Erdös-Rényi, Barabási-Albert, and Watts-Strogatz networks of different size and with different coupling parameters.

Modelling nonlinear dynamics of interacting tipping elements on complex networks: the PyCascades package

Tipping elements occur in various systems such as in socio-economics, ecology and the climate system. In many cases, the individual tipping elements are not independent of each other, but they interact across scales in time and space. To model systems of interacting tipping elements, we here introduce the PyCascades open source software package for studying interacting tipping elements (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4153102). PyCascades is an object-oriented and easily extendable package written in the programming language Python. It allows for investigating under which conditions potentially dangerous cascades can emerge between interacting dynamical systems, with a focus on tipping elements. With PyCascades it is possible to use different types of tipping elements such as double-fold and Hopf types and interactions between them. PyCascades can be applied to arbitrary complex network structures and has recently been extended to stochastic dynamical systems. This paper provides an overview of the functionality of PyCascades by introducing the basic concepts and the methodology behind it. In the end, three examples are discussed, showing three different applications of the software package. First, the moisture recycling network of the Amazon rainforest is investigated. Second, a model of interacting Earth system tipping elements is discussed. And third, the PyCascades modelling framework is applied to a global trade network.

Basin stability and limit cycles in a conceptual model for climate tipping cascades

Tipping elements in the climate system are large-scale subregions of the Earth that might possess threshold behavior under global warming with large potential impacts on human societies. Here, we study a subset of five tipping elements and their interactions in a conceptual and easily extendable framework: the Greenland Ice Sheets (GIS) and West Antarctic Ice Sheets, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the El–Niño Southern Oscillation and the Amazon rainforest. In this nonlinear and multistable system, we perform a basin stability analysis to detect its stable states and their associated Earth system resilience. By combining these two methodologies with a large-scale Monte Carlo approach, we are able to propagate the many uncertainties associated with the critical temperature thresholds and the interaction strengths of the tipping elements. Using this approach, we perform a system-wide and comprehensive robustness analysis with more than 3.5 billion ensemble members. Further, we investigate dynamic regimes where some of the states lose stability and oscillations appear using a newly developed basin bifurcation analysis methodology. Our results reveal that the state of four or five tipped elements has the largest basin volume for large levels of global warming beyond 4 °C above pre-industrial climate conditions, representing a highly undesired state where a majority of the tipping elements reside in the transitioned regime. For lower levels of warming, states including disintegrated ice sheets on west Antarctica and Greenland have higher basin volume than other state configurations. Therefore in our model, we find that the large ice sheets are of particular importance for Earth system resilience. We also detect the emergence of limit cycles for 0.6% of all ensemble members at rare parameter combinations. Such limit cycle oscillations mainly occur between the GIS and AMOC (86%), due to their negative feedback coupling. These limit cycles point to possibly dangerous internal modes of variability in the climate system that could have played a role in paleoclimatic dynamics such as those unfolding during the Pleistocene ice age cycles.

Editorial — Tipping Points in Adaptive Capacity and Adaptation Processes

Journal of Extreme EventsVol. 04, No. 01, 1702002 (2017) Open AccessEditorial — Tipping Points in Adaptive Capacity and Adaptation ProcessesMatthias Garschagen and William SoleckiMatthias GarschagenRisk Management and Adaptive Planning (VARMAP), Institute for Environment and Human Security, United Nations University, UN Campus, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, D-53113 Bonn, GermanyCorresponding author and William SoleckiDepartment of Geography, Hunter College, City University of New York, 695 Park Avenue, Rm 1006 HN, New York, NY 10065, USAhttps://doi.org/10.1142/S234573761702002XCited by:4 Next AboutSectionsPDF/EPUB ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsRecommend to Library ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmail References Haasnoot, M, Kwakkel JH, Walker WE and ter Maat J [2013] Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world. Global Environmental Change, 23 (2): 485–498. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.006 Crossref, Google Scholar Kriegler, E, Hall, Jim W, Held, H, Dawson, R and Schellnhuber HJ [2009] Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106 (13): 5041–5046. doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0809117106 Crossref, Google Scholar Lenton, TM and Ciscar J-C [2013] Integrating tipping points into climate impact assessments. Climatic Change, 117 (3): 585–597. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0572-8 Crossref, Google Scholar Lenton, T, Held H, Kriegler E, Hall J, Lucht W, Rahmstorf S and Schellnhuber H-J [2008] Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105 (6): 1786–1793. doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705414105 Crossref, Google Scholar Renaud, FG, Birkmann J, Damm M and Gallopín GC [2010] Understanding multiple thresholds of coupled social–ecological systems exposed to natural hazards as external shocks. Natural Hazards, 55 (3): 749–763. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9505-x Crossref, Google Scholar Scheffer, M [2009] Critical Transitions in Nature and Society. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Crossref, Google Scholar Scheffer, M, Bascompte J, Brock WA, Brovkin V, Carpenter SR and Dakos V [2009] Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature, 461 (7260): 53–59. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08227 Crossref, Google Scholar Schellnhuber, HJ and Martin M [2014] Climate-system tipping points and extreme wheather events. In Sustainable Humanity, Sustainable Nature: Our Responsibility Proceedings of a Joint Workshop, 2–6 May 2014, The Pontificial Academy of Science, Extra Series 41, Vatican. Online available at: http://www.casinapioiv.va/content/accademia/en/publications/extraseries/substainable.pdf. Google Scholar Solecki, W, Pelling M and Garsachagen M [2017] Transitions between risk management regimes in cities. Ecology and Society, 22 (2). doi: https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09102-220238 Crossref, Google Scholar Werners, SE, Pfenninger S, van Slobbe E, Haasnoot M, Kwakkel JH and Swart RJ [2013] Thresholds, tipping and turning points for sustainability under climate change. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 5 (3–4): 334–340. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2013.06.005 Crossref, Google Scholar FiguresReferencesRelatedDetailsCited By 4A stepwise approach for identifying climate change induced socio-economic tipping pointsKees C.H. van Ginkel, Marjolijn Haasnoot and W.J. Wouter Botzen1 Jan 2022 | Climate Risk Management, Vol. 37Climate Change Adaptation as an Idea and a PracticeLeigh Glover and Mikael Granberg30 June 2020Identifying leverage points for strengthening adaptive capacity to climate changeLinda M. Rosengren, Christopher M. Raymond, Mila Sell and Hilkka Vihinen28 January 2021 | Ecosystems and People, Vol. 16, No. 1Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate changeMarjolijn Haasnoot, Susan van ’t Klooster and Jos van Alphen1 Sep 2018 | Global Environmental Change, Vol. 52 Recommended Vol. 04, No. 01 Metrics History Published: 30 November 2017 Information© The Author(s)This is an Open Access article published by World Scientific Publishing Company. It is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY) License. Further distribution of this work is permitted, provided the original work is properly cited.PDF download

Tripping over tipping points/elements

The term ‘‘tipping point’’ has been used to identify a critical threshold susceptible to a tiny perturbation that can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. ‘‘Tipping element’’ has been introduced to describe largescale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. A special issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States (PNAS) recently focused on Tipping Elements in Earth Systems has examined potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system with anthropogenic forcing. Subjects such as the evaluation of El Nino/southern oscillation response to global warming, irreversible ice sheet retreat and unstoppable loss, and climate change induced Amazon rainforest dieback were presented in this special issue. An earlier PNAS research article investigated the imprecision of probability assessments of tipping points identified for the global climate system. The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) has underscored the importance of land degradation by human activity and the condition of the planet’s assessed ecosystems as instances of critical thresholds and tipping points important to the global environment and governments. The UNEP calls global government to establish more environmentally sustainable business practices in response to the concern for these approaching thresholds and tipping points. Proc Nat Acad Sci 2009, 106(49), 20561–20621; 105(6), 1786–1793; 2008, 106(13), 5041–5046; http://www.unep. org/geo/yearbook/yb2009. Next generation biofuel environmental and sustainability factors