Time Inconsistency Research Articles

Human-capital investments as a commitment device

This paper shows that a person with a self-control problem can have the incentive to use human-capital investment as a commitment tool to curb future myopic human-capital decisions. This commitment incentive arises from the property of increasing productivity from human-capital accumulation. Higher human-capital investments in the present increase the return on future investments in human capital, which helps encourage the future self to invest more. Although time inconsistency has often been used to explain why people underinvest in human capital, such as education and health, our findings suggest that time inconsistency can also explain why some people make extremely large human-capital investments.

Zimbabwe’s roadmap for decarbonisation and resilience: An evaluation of policy (in)consistency

Zimbabwe intends to build resilience mechanisms against climate change while at the same time ensuring sustainable development in recognition of its climate change vulnerability and national circumstances, in line with the demands of the Paris Agreement of reducing emissions by 2030. The study examined the consistency of government policies in reducing emissions by 1278GgCO2 by 2030. The study reviewed government policies and environmental projects intended at reducing carbon emissions. The results indicated that, on paper, the government has promising targets; but in reality, there are inconsistencies indicating the release of more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The inconsistencies include the commissioned Hwange thermal power station and fossil fuel-powered locomotives. The study found that there is strategic coherence between policy objectives, aimed at building resilient and low-carbon human settlement, and objectives of international policies such as the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, Paris Agreement and SENDAI Framework. The compulsory mixing of petrol and ethanol and the introduction of electric cars in the transportation sector demonstrated the limited but commendable efforts by the government in embracing renewable energy to reduce carbon emissions. The study established that poor policy implementation and lack of policy harmonisation have led to the failure of the Zimbabwean government to have policy consistency in terms of the decarbonisation roadmap resulting in policy conflicts and contradictions. An example of policy duplication is in, the Environmental Management Act and Forestry Act which can have sections dealing with climate change harmonised into the Climate Change Policy. The study recommends that the government establishes a National Climate Financing mechanism for cleaner technologies and practices to reduce emissions by 2030.

Learning equilibrium mean‐variance strategy

AbstractWe study a dynamic mean‐variance portfolio optimization problem under the reinforcement learning framework, where an entropy regularizer is introduced to induce exploration. Due to the time–inconsistency involved in a mean‐variance criterion, we aim to learn an equilibrium policy. Under an incomplete market setting, we obtain a semi‐analytical, exploratory, equilibrium mean‐variance policy that turns out to follow a Gaussian distribution. We then focus on a Gaussian mean return model and propose a reinforcement learning algorithm to find the equilibrium policy. Thanks to a thoroughly designed policy iteration procedure in our algorithm, we prove the convergence of our algorithm under mild conditions, despite that dynamic programming principle and the usual policy improvement theorem failing to hold for an equilibrium policy. Numerical experiments are given to demonstrate our algorithm. The design and implementation of our reinforcement learning algorithm apply to a general market setup.

Transcending energy transition complexities in building a carbon-neutral economy: The case of Nigeria

Nigeria seeks to transition to a low-carbon economy through the use of renewable energy resources and technologies. However, while some of the Nigerian government's recent policies have emphasized the need for the relative decoupling of energy systems in order to maximize renewable energy, others have concurrently bolstered fossil-fuel power generation as the country's energy system's centerpiece. This paper employs the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning Tool (LEAP) and the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) to evaluate Nigeria's progress toward a carbon-neutral economy. The findings indicate that the transformation to a low-carbon economy offers enormous opportunities for enhanced energy access and the future expansion of fossil fuel infrastructure. Nevertheless, institutional inertia and coordination lapses create barriers within the energy systems, while inconsistent policy priorities and political-economic calculations generate further bias in favor of the currently dominant oil- and gas-based development. Renewable energy will ensure Nigeria reduces its reliance on fossil fuels, but the transition will be fraught with formidable obstacles. Therefore, accelerating carbon neutralization necessitates a suite of energy mitigation pathways at scales that allow for the flexible integration of all energy systems, particularly modern bioenergy and natural gas.

Implications of Religious Fatwa on the Implementation of the COVID-19 Policy in Indonesia

This academic study has been conducted on the intricate interaction between religion and the state in Indonesia. Religion plays a significant role in how the state communicates its policy messages, which includes the COVID-19 policy in Indonesia. This study examines how state power dynamics and religious fatwas in the digital age affect Indonesia's adoption of the COVID-19 policy. A fatwa is a legal opinion or a decree which is passed down by an Islamic religious leader. The research methodology was carried out by looking at a wide range of relevant literature sources such as including books, academic journals, and already published research. The study results demonstrate that implementing government policies relating to the COVID-19 vaccine and the policy followed has produced a lobbying environment for developing power relationships between various role players. The interaction between the state's laws for addressing COVID-19 and the interests of religious organizations is often complicated and changes based on the nation involved and the specific situation that may be faced. The government has used the fatwa issued by the Indonesian Ulema Council to remedy several issues, including that faced during the COVID-19 pandemic. It is argued that in the current digital age, it is vital to allay any fears about the inconsistency of government policies toward religion and then there is also the possibility of fatwas to incite exclusivist views among some religious groups.

Policy Studies Yearbook Annual Review 2022–23: Note from the editor and call for papers

<i>Policy Studies Yearbook Annual Review</i> 2022–23: Note from the editor and call for papers

Democracy in the digital era

Democracy in the digital era

Green growth for whom, how and why? The REPowerEU Plan and the inconsistencies of European Union energy policy

The REPowerEU plan redefines the European Union (EU) energy transition agenda in response to the Russia-Ukraine war. Formally, it aims to boost green growth, defend liberal democracy, and increase Europe's energy sovereignty. Yet, the new course of EU energy policy may be paradoxically yoking the continent into raw materials dependency and lock-in investments in fossil fuel infrastructures, while partnering with other warmonger and dictatorial states. I argue that even a much-needed switch to low-carbon energy sources is not immune from the calamitous consequences of an energy transition based on the growth imperative. Building on the System of Provision approach and integrating it with insights from ecological economics and political ecology, this paper asks how, for what purpose, and on whose terms is the remarkable expansion of solar photovoltaics outlined in the REPowerEU taking place. I find that the mass of raw materials required to meet solar energy targets will increase 3-fold by 2030. This could provide 4.4–6.7 % of EU energy while occupying 5.5–8 % of urbanised spaces. It will also strengthen the dependency on Chinese refining and manufacturing, besides intensifying mining and extractive activities around the globe. The findings in this paper show that the EU economy is not de-materialising, but rather harnessing discontent around rosy narratives like “green growth”. To conclude, I argue that a truly transformative energy policy requires questioning the material foundations of ecological modernisation approaches, abandoning the growth imperative, and reorganising energy systems around sufficiency and decentralised provisioning beyond, rather than within, global capitalism.

Ethno-Tribal Alienation, Anti-Bullet Charms, and other Factors in the Resurgence of Militancy in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria

The resurgence of militant groups and the prevailing insecurity situation in the Niger Delta region is the concern of this study. The incessant bombing and vandalisation of oil installation, kidnapping, robbery, etc, has crippled socio-economic activities in the region and Nigeria at large. Although, there exists reports and studies on insecurity in the Niger Delta region, none has provided complete empirical and quantitative account on the effects of ethno-tribal alienation, proliferation of small arms, anti-bullet charms, and amnesty policy inconsistency on the re-emergence of militancy in the Niger Delta region. This knowledge gap justified the relevance of this study. Thus, this study is design to establish the connects between proliferation of small arms, anti-bullet charms, ethno-tribal alienation, amnesty policy inconsistency, insecurity of local chiefs, and the resurgence of militant groups. Findings revealed that Ethno-tribal alienation, proliferation of arms, anti-bullet charms, amnesty policy inconsistency, and insincerity of local chiefs are among the key factors responsible for re-emergence of militancy in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. Participants noted that they are aware of the potential for repressive and harsh military action as a result of their actions, thus, the study recommended among others that authorities take a more inclusive approach in dealing with the crisis

Catching up with AI: Pushing toward a cohesive governance framework

AbstractArtificial Intelligence (AI) contributes to public administration by augmenting public services, including managing big data and information technology. AI is currently utilized in e‐government services that contribute value to American citizens, including providing a personalized customer experience, such as linking individualized data and processing individual assistance requests. Furthermore, AI can take over redundant routine tasks such as digital information provisioning and delivering services. However, in the United States, there is no overarching policy that governs AI. Inconsistent public policy contributes to public distrust of AI, concerns about privacy intrusion, and fears of inequitable service delivery. This review article discusses the rapid emergence of government applications of AI and provides a systematic review of proposed AI governance models. It then outlines their common components for the purpose of building a coherent, yet adaptable, AI Governance Framework and proposes a research agenda for policy and administration researchers.Related ArticlesGlen, Carol M. 2014. “Internet Governance: Territorializing Cyberspace?” Politics &amp; Policy 42(5): 635–57. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12093.Glen, Carol M. 2021. “Norm Entrepreneurship in Global Cybersecurity.” Politics &amp; Policy 49(5): 1121–45. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12430.Zeng, Jinghan, Tim Stevens, and Yaru Chen. 2017. “China's Solution to Global Cyber Governance: Unpacking the Domestic Discourse of ‘Internet Sovereignty.’” Politics &amp; Policy 45(3): 432–64. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12202.

The impacts of COVID-19 and its policy response on access and utilization of maternal and child health services in Tanzania: A mixed methods study.

The SARS-Cov-2 virus (COVID-19) has had a global social and economic impact. Despite the growing evidence, its effects on access and delivery of maternal and child health services in low-income countries are still unclear. This cross-sectional case study was conducted in Mjini Magharibi, Chake Chake, and Ilala districts in Tanzania to help fill this gap. The study combined qualitative and quantitative data collection methods, providing an account of the evolution of the pandemic and the associated control measures in Tanzania. We drew from 34 in-depth interviews, 60 semi-structured interviews, and 14 focus group discussions with key informants, patients, and health providers, and complemented the findings with a review of pandemic reports and health facility records. We followed the Standards for Reporting Qualitative Research (SRQR) to provide an account of the findings. Our account of the pandemic shows that there was at times an inconsistent policy response in Tanzania, with diverse control measures adopted at various stages of the epidemic. There was a perception that COVID-19 services were prioritized during the epidemic at the expense of regular ones. There were reports of reorganisation of health facilities, reallocation of staff, rescheduled antenatal and postnatal clinics, and reduced time for health education and child monitoring. Scarcity of essential commodities was reported, such as vaccines, equipment, and medical supplies. Such perceptions were in part supported by the routine utilization evidence in the three districts, showing a lower uptake of antenatal, postnatal, family planning, and immunization services, as well as fewer institutional deliveries. Our findings suggest that, although the policy response in Tanzania was erratic, it was rather fear of the pandemic itself and diversion of resources to control COVID-19, that may have contributed most to lower the utilization of mother and child services. For future emergencies, it will be crucial to ensure the policy response does not weaken the population's demand for services.

IMPACT Of LEATHER &amp; LEATHER PRODUCTS IN NIGERIAN ECONOMIC GROWH AND BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT

The production and sale of leather products have played a significant role in Nigeria’s economic growth and business development. However, the industry faces challenges such as inconsistent policies, infrastructure deficiencies, and the need for technological upgrades also the study is designed to access the importance roles of leather products to economic growth and development. The results of the research findings showed that availabilities of tanneries should be discouraged foreign products and encourage patronizing made in Nigeria leather products, and diversification of the leather products and leather goods which is the second command revenue to Nigeria economy. Use of locally available materials for income generation, and solving unemployment among the teeming youths aim of the study, hides and skin conversion into leather product will lead to economy development of Nigeria. There’re needs for both public and private partnership in order to encourage leather and leather product improvement, technical and extension support to development an effective system in leather processing and to finishing stage. Generally, the leather and leather products industry play a prominent role in the world’s economy. UNIDO estimated that world leather export is dominated by developing countries while developed countries dominate export of Finished Leather Products. Global estimate of leather production is about 23 billion square foot annually. Asia accounts for about 57 percent of heavy leather production and 44 percent of light leather production. Europe accounts for 17 percent and 24 percent of global heavy leather and light leather production, respectively while Africa contributes the least accounting for one per cent of heavy leather and 4 percent of light leather production.

Universal basic income, time inconsistency and saving regret

We investigate whether a universal basic income (UBI) programme should replace New Zealand’s public pension system. A UBI programme would increase the number of social benefit recipients and hence increase tax rates. Not only the basic income itself but also its accompanying tax rate hikes would influence intra- and inter-temporal choices of households. We use an overlapping generations model and show that households’ preferences would be time-inconsistent—in hindsight, households regret having saved too little. There are three major findings of this study. First, the public pension system would be preferred to a UBI programme increasing the tax rate of income. Second, a UBI programme increasing the consumption tax rate would be preferred to the public pension system by households at most ages, but they would reverse the preference later in their lives. Third, a decrease in the population growth rate would make the reversal of the preference more noticeable.

Average inflation targeting: Time inconsistency and ambiguous communication

We study the implications of average inflation targeting (AIT). AIT improves the inflation-output trade-off when the private sector believes the central bank’s announcement. Ex post, the central bank has the incentive to implement inflation targeting instead to maximize social welfare. Next, we examine whether and how the central bank can convince the private sector, and find ambiguous communication helps the central bank gain credibility and improve welfare. These results apply to several key aspects of AIT announcement and do not rely on specific modeling assumptions.

Cross-Period Impatience: Subjective Financial Periods Explain Time-Inconsistent Choices

Abstract Inconsistency in consumer time preferences has been well established and used to explain seemingly short-sighted behaviors (e.g., failures of self-control). However, prior research has conflated time-inconsistent preferences (discount rates that vary over time) with present bias (greater discounting when outcomes are delayed specifically from the present, as opposed to from a future time). This research shows that time-inconsistent preferences are reliably observed only when choices are substantially delayed (e.g., months into the future), which cannot be explained by present bias. This seeming puzzle is explained by a novel cross-period discounting framework, which predicts that consumers are more impatient when choosing between options occurring in different subjective financial periods. As a result, they display inconsistent time preferences and are less willing to wait for an equally delayed outcome specifically when a common delay to both options moves the larger-later option into a subsequent financial period. Six studies and multiple supplementary studies demonstrate that sensitivity to subjective financial periods accounts for time-inconsistent consumer preferences better than current models of time discounting based on present bias.

Time-space consistency strategy for live-virtual-constructive (LVC) integrated simulation environment

Constructing a unified Live-Virtual-Constructive (LVC) integrated simulation environment has always been a major goal in the modeling and simulation (M&S) field, and ensuring the time-space consistency is the foundation of its construction. That is, the inconsistency of time and space expression between integrated subsystems must be solved to achieve accurate and effective information interaction. To this end, this paper analyzes the specific causes of time-space inconsistency of LVC system, and gives the overall solution and the corresponding strategies or algorithms involved, including clock synchronization strategy, space coordinate conversion algorithm, time description conversion algorithm, dead reckoning (DR) algorithm and event causality control method. The relevant research has been verified in the integrated simulation system of missile attacking surface targets, and can provide technical support for the construction of large-scale LVC system.

Genezis sistemy obrazovaniya v Rossii v seredine XVIII v.: istoriko-pedagogicheskij i sociokul'turnyj aspekty

The scientific article explores the main trends in the development of the education system in Russia in the middle of the 18th century. The authors conduct a historical and pedagogical analysis of the period of the 1730s 1760s, characterized by the inconsistency of the state educational policy in the post-Petrine era and the formation of stable socio-cultural trends for the transition to subsequent cardinal education reforms. It is shown that during this period the idea of the need for education, enlightenment and determining the orientation towards the secular nature of education matured in Russian society and gradually permeated public consciousness, created the systemic contours of general education in Russia in the second half of the 18th century.

Policy Dynamics and Their Effect on Food Supply Chains in DKI Jakarta: Implications for Food Security

This scholarly paper investigates the complex interplay between policy dynamics, food supply chains, and food security within the urban confines of DKI Jakarta, Indonesia. The research sheds light on the profound impact of policy changes on various sectors of food supply chains, including production, distribution, consumption, and waste management, thereby determining the city's food security status. Emphasizing the importance of policy stability and coherence, the paper illustrates the potential disruptions in food supply chains resulting from inconsistent policy shifts, posing threats to urban food security. The study concludes with strategic recommendations aimed at enhancing the resilience and efficiency of food supply chains through robust policy mechanisms. The findings of this study serve as a crucial reference for policymakers and stakeholders concerned with reinforcing food security in dense urban landscapes like DKI Jakarta.

Captain Pennington’s perplexity: the loan of English ships to France, 1625

Abstract The contentious loan of English ships to France in 1625 has usually been treated as a political scandal contributing to the impeachment of the duke of Buckingham. Here it is examined as a maritime episode, particularly challenging for Captain John Pennington of the royal ship Vanguard. English mariners were opposed to serving under the French, and vehemently against allowing their vessels to combat the Huguenots at La Rochelle. Inconsistencies in policies and directions contributed to the captain’s perplexity, but he was not party to the conspiracy that some historians have detected to thwart the loan and its application.

United States Health Policies on Gender-Affirming Care in 2022.

Within the United States, access to gender-affirming operations covered by health insurance has increased dramatically over the past decade. However, the perpetually changing landscape and inconsistencies of individual state health policies governing private and public insurance coverage present a lack of clarity for reconstructive surgeons and other physicians attempting to provide gender-affirming care. This work systematically reviewed the current U.S. health policies for both private insurance and Medicaid on a state-by-state basis. Individual state health policies in effect as of August of 2022 on gender-affirming care were reviewed using the LexisNexis legal database, state legislature publications, and Medicaid manuals. Primary outcomes were categorization of policies as protective, restrictive, or unclear for each state. Secondary outcomes included analyses of demographics covered by current health policies and geographic differences. Protective state-level health policies related to gender-affirming care were present in approximately half of the nation for both private insurance (49.0%) and Medicaid (52.9%). Explicitly restrictive policies were found in 5.9% and 17.6% of states for private insurance and Medicaid, respectively. Regionally, the Northeast and West had the highest rates of protective policies, whereas the Midwest and South had the highest rates of restrictive policies on gender-affirming care. State-level health policies on gender-affirming care vary significantly across the United States with regional associations. Clarity in the current and evolving state-specific health policies governing gender-affirming care is essential for surgeons and physicians caring for transgender and gender-diverse individuals.