Abstract Background Individual blood markers have been associated with future risk of Crohn's disease (CD). However, there is a need to understand which combination of biomarkers will be most predictive to facilitate CD prevention trial recruitment. We aimed to develop and validate a blood-based integrative risk score for CD development. Methods We analyzed data from 200 patients with CD and 100 age, sex, and race-matched healthy controls (HC) from PREDICTS, a nested case-control study of US active-component service members (ACSM). Longitudinal serum samples were collected at four time points up to 6+ years prior to diagnosis. Anti-microbial antibodies (Prometheus), proteomic markers (Olink inflammation panel), and anti-granulocyte macrophage-colony stimulating factor autoantibodies (anti-GM-CSF) were assayed in each sample. Participants were randomly divided into equal sized training and testing sets. Time-varying trajectories of marker abundance were estimated for each biomarker. Logistic regression modeled disease status as a function of each marker for different time points and multivariate modeling was performed via logistic lasso regression. A risk score to predict CD onset within 2 years was developed using penalized mixed-effects logistic regression. Prediction models were fit on the testing set and predictive performance evaluated via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC). Results The AUCs of individual markers were dynamic over time, with some having stable predictive capacity and others increasing or decreasing closer to time of diagnosis (Figure 1A). The AUCs for a model combining antibodies (Prometheus and anti-GM-CSF) and proteins were consistently above 0.8 starting 4 years prior to diagnosis, primarily driven by proteomic markers (Figure 1B). An integrative model predicting CD onset within 2 years incorporated 10 biomarkers and significantly associated with CD onset (Figure 1C). The model resulted in an AUC of 0.87 with a specificity of 99% and positive predictive value of 84% at a classification threshold of 0.7 (Figure 1D). Stratifying the integrative model scores into quartiles revealed a clear gradient in CD incidence within 2 years, increasing from 2% in the first quartile to 57.7% in the fourth quartile (Figure 1E). The relative risk (RR) for developing CD among ACSM in the top quartile, compared to the lower quartiles, was 10.4 (95% CI 6.9, 15.6). Conclusion An integrative blood-based model combining anti-microbial antibodies and proteins predicts onset of CD. Serologic and proteomic markers have dynamic changes years before diagnosis, highlighting the varying preclinical phases of CD and how leveraging biomarker dynamics can predict time to diagnosis. Figure 1
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