Cross-sectional Time Series Research Articles

DETERMINATION OF IMPAIRMENT LOSSES RESERVE AND ITS IMPACT ON INTEREST EARNED AT PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK FROM 2014-2018

The purpose of this study is: 1) To analyze how the different ways of determining impairment losses reserve will affect the interest earned 2) To make recommendation on the best way to determine the impairment losses reserve. This research method uses a quantitative approach based on time series data and cross sections. The population in this study is PT. Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk. In this study the sampling technique used probability sampling method. Determination of the sample using the simple random sampling method. Data analysis method in this study uses multiple regression analysis with the help of SPSS version 24.00. The results of the study show some conclusions as follows: 1) Delay in debt payment obligations (PKPU) is proven to have an influence on allowance for impairment losses (CKPN) with a positive relationship. 2) Credit quality (KK) is proven to have an influence on allowance for impairment losses (CKPN) in a negative direction. 3) Delayed debt payment obligations (PKPU) have been proven to influence interest earned with a negative relationship. 4) Credit quality (KK) is proven to have an influence on interest earned and 5) Allowance for impairment losses (CKPN) is proven to have an influence on interest earned with a negative relationship.

THE EFFECT OF PROFITABILITY, CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND CORPORATE VALUES ON RETURN OF SHARES (TELECOMMUNICATIONS SUB SECTOR IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE 2014-2018)

The development of increasingly stringent business world in Indonesia will create an increasingly sharp competition between companies. Firms in the industry in Indonesia is a land for investors to invest capital to be invested in various forms of securities. So it is not wrong for the company's various aspects and types become part of the capital market. This study was conducted to determine the effect of ROE, DER and PBV to Stock Return on Telecommunications Sector Sub Listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange. This study uses annual data for the observation period from 2014 until 2018. The research type is descriptive causality. The data used is the data panel that is a combination of annual time series data and cross section were processed using panel data regression analysis. The population is all Sub-Sector Telecommunications listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2014 until 2018 the number of 5 companies. The sampling technique used purposive sampling, found a sample of four companies with the observation of 5 years in order to obtain total observation as much as 20. Data were obtained from the Indonesia Stock Exchange, and Yahoo Finance. Analysis of the data in this study is panel data regression. The model used is the Common Effect Model. The analysis showed that the ROE does not have a significant effect on stock returns, DER has no significant effect on stock returns, while PBV positive and significant effect Stock Return on Telecommunications Sector Sub Listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange.

The Effect Of Fiscal Decentralization And Economic Growth On Poverty In Gorontalo Province

The implementation of fiscal decentralization policy has a good impact on the development of the potential and creativity of local governments. Effectiveness in managing the results of regional wealth will affect the original income of the region which can then be utilized for the welfare of the community. This study aims to determine the effect of fiscal decentralization and economic growth on poverty in Gorontalo Province. This research uses quantitative methods. The data used in this study were sourced from the Central Statistics Agency and the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance so that the data in this study were secondary data using the econometrics method through a panel data regression equation in the form of a combination of 10-year time series data (2008-2017) and cross section data 6 Regency / City areas in Gorontalo Province. Estimation is done using the Fixed Effect Model (FEM). The results of this study indicate that (1) Partially the degree of fiscal decentralization has a negative effect (unidirectional relationship) and significant on poverty means that the greater the fiscal decentralization variable will have an impact on reducing the level of poverty (2) Partially economic growth has a negative effect (unidirectional relationship) and significant to poverty means increasing economic growth can reduce poverty levels (3) Simultaneously the degree of fiscal decentralization and economic growth have a significant effect on poverty in Gorontalo Province.
 
 Keywords: fiscal decentralization, economic growth, poverty

Forecasting with a Panel Tobit Model

We use a dynamic panel Tobit model with heteroskedasticity to generate point, set, and density forecasts for a large cross-section of short time series of censored observations. Our fully Bayesian approach allows us to flexibly estimate the cross-sectional distribution of heterogeneous coefficients and then implicitly use this distribution as prior to construct Bayes forecasts for the individual time series. We construct set forecasts that explicitly target the average coverage probability for the cross-section. We present a novel application in which we forecast bank-level charge-off rates for credit card and residential real estate loans, comparing various versions of the panel Tobit model.

Rumor Has it: The Role of Social Ties in Evacuation to Nearby Shelters after the 2018 Hokkaido Earthquake

When crisis strikes, why do some communities utilize evacuation shelters more than others? This mixed methods study draws on a new dataset of almost-daily tallies of evacuees at 660 local shelters following Japan’s 2018 Eastern Iburi Earthquake in Hokkaido to create a large-N time-series cross sectional (TSCS) dataset of local, short-distance evacuation. We pair time-series cross-sectional data models with qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) of nine affected municipalities to examine why some shelters see higher evacuation rates than others. While past studies have used Facebook user data, post-hoc surveys, or ad-hoc roadside interviews to measure evacuation, this study uses meticulously recorded shelter attendance data to draw inferences about evacuation behavior. Controlling for types of shelters, damage levels, infrastructure quality, social vulnerability, governance capacity, and community resources, we find that in affected communities, stronger bridging social ties, especially when aided by linking ties, motivate greater evacuation to shelters. In unaffected communities, stronger bonding and bridging ties encourage potentially unnecessary evacuation, helping spread rumors during blackouts. These results highlight the necessity of clear, transparent communication with the public, and fostering trust in government during crises.

ANALISIS FAKTOR –FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI PADA PERUSAHAAN PERTAMBANGAN LOGAM DAN MINERAL YANG TERDAFTAR DIBURSA EFEKINDONESIA

his study aims to analyze whether Net Profit, Leverage, Liquidity, Inventory Turnover, and Profitability have an influence on investment decisions of metal and mineral mining companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2018 and 2019. The population in this study are metal and mineral mining companies. listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, amounting to 11 companies. And 7 metal and mineral mining companies in this study were used as samples. Sources of data used in this study are secondary data, the data used are the financial statements of metal and mineral mining companies sampled obtained through the Indonesia Stock Exchange published on the website www.idx.co.id. The analytical method used in analyzing the data in this study is panel data regression analysis. The sampling method used is the panel data method which is a combination of cross section data and time series data. The independent variables in this study are Net Income, Leverage, Liquidity, Inventory Turnover, Profitability, and thedependent variable namely Investment Decision. The results of this study indicate that Leverage,and Profitabilityhave a positive effect on Investment Decisions,Liquidity, and Inventory Turnover, while Net Income has a negative effect on Investment Decisions.Keywords: Investment Decision, Net Income, Leverage,Liquidity, Inventory Turnover, and Profitability

Determinants of Tax Effort and Tax Capacity in Jordan During the Period (2000-2017)

The main objective of this study was to measure the tax capacity and tax effort in Jordan by using cross-sectional time series data for 59 countries during the period (2000-2017), where the modal was estimated by the least squares method and the normal results of the study, (OLS), the result of the study showed a positive relationship between the tax burden and the share of exports of GDP, while the relationship was inverse with the value added of the manufacturing sector, per capita income and the share of the services sector of GDP. As for the estimated tax effort, the results showed that the data of Jordan were compensated in the estimated standard model where the tax capacity in Jordan in 2017 was about 16.1%, this means that Jordan is close to the upper limits of the tax capacity; in 2017 the tax burden has reached about 15.7%. Taking into account the impact of the procedures that the government has taken since the begging of 2018, especially the sales tax and the special taxes on oil, this means that Jordan is close to the limits of tax exhaustion. The results of the study also showed that the tax effort in Jordan is high, thus means that the category that pays taxes pays more than its capacity taxes, and these counts as an exhaustion on the productive sectors, which negatively affects the competitiveness. The study recommended the importance of the effective utilizing of tax capacity for individuals and for the economy and maintains acceptable levels of tax effort and not to exceed these levels.

PENGARUH CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIO (CAR) DAN BIAYA OPERASIONAL PENDAPATAN OPERASIONAL (BOPO) TERHADAP KINERJA BANK SYARIAH

This study aims to determine the effect of capital adequacy ratio, financing to deposite ratio and operating costs of operating income on healthy returns on. This study uses data which is a time series cross section data from sharia banking statistics from 2015-2018 and 2019 (only January to August because the most recent data) is registered with Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). Data collection methods in this study used purposive sampling. Analysis of the data used is multiple linear regression. The classic assumption tests used in this study are the normality test, the multicollinearity test, the heteroscedasticity test, and the autocorrelation test. The results of this study indicate that the capital adequacy ratio does not affect the return on assets, operational costs of operating income negatively affect the return on assets

Assessing the impact of an opioid prescribing guideline for dentists in Ontario, Canada

BackgroundThe Royal College of Dental Surgeons of Ontario introduced a new dental opioid prescribing guideline in November 2015. The authors examined whether introduction of this guideline was associated with changes in opioid prescribing patterns. MethodsThe authors conducted a population-based, cross-sectional time series study of Ontarians who received opioids prescribed by dentists from July 1, 2012 through September 30, 2017. They examined the impact of the guideline on dental prescribing patterns by calculating the monthly rate of opioid dispensing from dentists per 100,000 population, as well as the population exposure to opioids expressed as milligram morphine equivalents per 100 population. ResultsOntario dentists issued 1,571,897 opioid prescriptions to 1,157,102 patients over the study period. The guideline was not associated with a change in opioid dispensing rates, but it was associated with a significant reduction in the volume of opioids dispensed (28.1% reduction, from 22.1 to 15.9 milligram morphine equivalents per 100 population from October 2015 through September 2017; P = .01). ConclusionsIntroduction of the prescribing guideline was associated with no change in the rate of opioid prescribing by dentists, but it was associated with a roughly 25% reduction in the volume of opioids prescribed. Practical ImplicationsIntroduction of the new opioid prescribing guideline for Ontario dentists was associated with a reduction in the overall volume of opioids dispensed.

Vertical upward and downward churn flow: Similarities and differences

Investigation of downward two-phase flows received less attention compared to the vertical upward flows. Downward flows are found in many industries and facilities including; oil/gas production, nuclear industry and petroleum refinery/production facilities such as evaporators, chemical reactors and distillation towers. A thorough understanding of the flow dynamic characteristics occur in such transportation lines, process plants and units is very crucial in terms of design, operation, production and safety.In the current work, air-water two-phase churn flow in a 34 mm I.D. pipe was investigated for two configurations of vertical upward (51 cases) and downward (48 cases). Several conductance probes and pressure transducers were used to measure cross-sectional averaged void fraction time series, and pressure drop along the pipe, respectively.The main objectives of the work were to investigate the similarities and dissimilarities between vertically upward and downward churn flow and specifically understand how gravity could affect the behavior of liquid structures present within the flow. To quantify this, different parameters such as Probability Density Function, distribution coefficient in the drift-flux model, structural velocity, slippage number, dimensionless pressure gradient etc. were used.It was noticed that in both configurations, dimensionless pressure gradient and slippage number demonstrated a strong correlation with the mixture Froude number. There were, however, discrepancies in Probability Density Functions (PDFs) and structural velocities of flow in the two orientations.

An Empirical Study of the Option Pricing Formula with the Underlying Banned from Short Sell

Short sell bans are often imposed during a financial crisis as a desperate measure to stabilize financial markets. Yet, the impact of short sell bans on option pricing and hedging is not well quantitatively studied until very recently when Guo and Zhu (2017) and He and Zhu (2018) formulated a new pricing framework with the underlying being either completely or partially banned from short selling. However, no empirical results were provided to substantiate the usefulness of the formulae, as well as to deepen our understanding on the effects of short sell bans. This paper provides a comprehensive empirical study on the effects of short sell bans to the standard option pricing theory by carrying out both cross-sectional and options time series model calibration of the model devised by He and Zhu (2018). Overall, our empirical results indicate that the alternative option pricing formula considering short sell restrictions has the ability to capture highly-quoted implied volatility, with an evident improvement of 39% out-of-sample performance compared to the benchmark Black-Scholes model during the period of short sell ban.

Environmental Justice from a Political Science Perspective

Mapping Climate Justice proposes a 3-dimensional environmental justice approach to share economic benefits and the burden of climate change right, just and fair around the globe. Scientific data is backed by ethical imperatives. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gains and losses of a warming globe are captured to be distributed unequal around the world. The ethical climatorial imperative demands for an equalization of the gains of climate change around the globe in order to offset losses incurred due to climate change (Kant, 1783/1993; Puaschunder, 2017b, c; Rawls, 1971). First, climate justice within a country should pay tribute to the fact that low- and high-income households carry the same burden proportional to their disposable income, for instance, enabled through a progressive carbon taxation, consumption tax to curb harmful behavior and/or corporate inheritance tax to reap benefits of past wealth accumulation that may have caused climate change (Puaschunder, 2017c). Secondly, fair climate change change burden sharing between countries ensures those countries benefiting more from a warmer environment also bear a higher responsibility regarding climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts (Puaschunder, 2019). Thirdly, climate justice over time is proposed in an innovative climate change burden sharing bonds strategy, which distributes the benefits and burdens of a warming earth Pareto-optimal among generations (Puaschunder, 2016a). All these recommendations are aimed at sharing the burden but also the benefits of climate change within society in an economically efficient, legally equitable and practically feasible way now and also between generations. Future Climate Wealth of Nations is derived from climate flexibility defined as the range of temperature variation of a country. In a changing climate, temperature range flexibility is portrayed as a future asset for production flexibility and international trade of commodities leading to comparative advantages of countries. A broad spectrum of climate zones has never been defined as asset and comparative edge in free trade. But future climate change will require territories being more flexible in terms of changing economic production possibilities on a warming globe. The more climate variation a nation state possesses, this novel project argues, the more degrees of freedom a country has in terms of GDP production capabilities in a changing climate. Modeling and empirical validation: These preliminary insights aid in answering what commodity prices, financial flows and trade patterns we can expect given predictions the earth will become hotter. Climate variation based on cyclical changes or climate zones will become subject to scrutiny for associations with climate-based advantages and risks. Economic modeling, cross-sectional world country comparisons, time series and panel regressions will scrutinize temperature data in relation to production in order to derive inferences for future Climate Wealth of Nations. Already now, the degree of climate flexibility is found to be related to human migration inflows. The previously defined climate change winner and loser index is blended with the novel insights on climate flexibility, leading to an unprecedented outlook on future Climate Wealth of Nations in a climate changing world. Lastly, future climate change induced market changes are planned to be derived from scarcity of agriculture production. Individual commodities price distributions will become the foundation for commodity price expectation estimates in the environmental domain back-tested on actual data. In honor of Natasha Chichilnisky-Heal, special attention will be paid to the role international institutions play to alleviate anti-corruption in commodity pricing and trade wars.

Appearing moderate or radical? Radical left party success and the two-dimensional political space

Challenger parties’ electoral successes have attracted increasing scholarly attention. Based on the example of West European radical left parties, this article investigates whether and how centripetal and centrifugal positional movements on different conflict dimensions influence the election results of these parties. Depending on parties’ issue-linkages, these strategies will have a different effect for the economic and the non-economic issue dimension. Due to radical left parties’ long-term commitment and a strong party-issue linkage on economic issues, more moderate positions will play to their electoral advantage. In contrast, far-left parties compete with social democratic and green-libertarian parties for party-issue linkages on the non-economic issue dimension. Here, they benefit from promoting centrifugal strategies. Based on time-series cross-section analyses for 25 West European far-left parties between 1990 and 2017, the empirical results show that the success of radical left parties’ positional strategies varies with the conflict dimension in question and that this effect is only partly moderated by the positions of competing mainstream left parties.

Social determinants of health and disparities in prenatal care utilization during the Great Recession period\xa02005-2010

BackgroundEarly, regular prenatal care utilization is an important strategy for improving maternal and infant health outcomes. The purpose of this study is to better understand contributing factors to disparate prenatal care utilization outcomes among women of different racial/ethnic and social status groups before, during, and after the Great Recession (December 2007–June 2009).MethodsData from 678,235 Washington (WA) and Florida (FL) birth certificates were linked to community and state characteristic data to carry out cross-sectional pooled time series analyses with institutional review board approval for human subjects’ research. Predictors of on-time as compared to late or non-entry to prenatal care utilization (late/no prenatal care utilization) were identified and compared among pregnant women. Also explored was a simulated triadic relationship among time (within recession-related periods), social characteristics, and prenatal care utilization by clustering individual predictors into three scenarios representing low, average, and high degrees of social disadvantage.ResultsIndividual and community indicators of need (e.g., maternal Medicaid enrollment, unemployment rate) increased during the Recession. Associations between late/no prenatal care utilization and individual-level characteristics (including disparate associations among race/ethnicity groups) did not shift greatly with young maternal age and having less than a high school education remaining the largest contributors to late/no prenatal care utilization. In contrast, individual maternal enrollment in a supplemental nutrition program for women, infants, and children (WIC) exhibited a protective association against late/no prenatal care utilization. The magnitude of association between community-level partisan voting patterns and expenditures on some maternal child health programs increased in non-beneficial directions. Simulated scenarios show a high combined impact on prenatal care utilization among women who have multiple disadvantages.ConclusionsOur findings provide a compelling picture of the important roles that individual characteristics—particularly low education and young age—play in late/no prenatal care utilization among pregnant women. Targeted outreach to individuals with high disadvantage characteristics, particularly those with multiple disadvantages, may help to increase first trimester entry to utilization of prenatal care. Finally, WIC may have played a valuable role in reducing late/no prenatal care utilization, and its effectiveness during the Great Recession as a policy-based approach to reducing late/no prenatal care utilization should be further explored.

DSRIP’s innovation and collaboration in population health management: A cross-sectional segmented time series model

Texas Medicaid Section 1115 waiver approved Delivery System Reform Incentive Payment (DSRIP) program has four categories, namely infrastructure development, program innovation and redesign, reporting of quality improvement outcomes, and population health improvement. A metric of the fourth category, preventable hospitalization rate, was analyzed for a set of eight diagnostic conditions to assess the impact of DSRIP on participating- and non-participating hospitals over two time periods, pre-DSRIP and post-DSRIP, with the help of a cross-sectional segmented time series regression model. Texas Healthcare Information Collection database was leveraged to obtain preventable hospitalization rate data. The dependent variables were preventable hospitalization rates of eight program-specified conditions and the independent variables were time, intervention, and post-implementation intervention. The overall combined preventable hospitalization rate for DSRIP hospitals was observed to decrease by 25.73%, whereas the overall combined preventable hospitalization rate for non-DSRIP hospitals was observed to increase by 37.57%. DSRIP hospitals had invested in coordinating healthcare projects and were subsequently reimbursed by the state for healthcare improvements. The implementation of DSRIP may have had the capacity to decrease preventable hospitalization rates in regions wherein its adoption may have improved the health of the population.

Immigrants in the EU5 labour markets: what happened during the economic crisis?

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to understand: whether the changes that have occurred in migrants’ conditions over time are smaller than the differences in their conditions existing across countries; and whether the comparison between immigrants and native-born conditions allows the verification of the levels of disparities between them and, therefore, the relative disadvantage suffered by migrant. After a general overview of the 28 European Union countries, this paper analyses the changes that have occurred from 2006 to 2017 in the conditions of migrants in the labour market in the big five European countries (Italy, Spain, France, Germany and the UK).Design/methodology/approachVarious statistical methodologies were used. First, to gain an overall picture, taking into account both the spatial and the temporal dimensions, dynamic factor analysis (DFA) was applied. Second, time-dependent and cross-sectional time-series models were estimated to better understand the DFA results.FindingsThe results highlight very different scenarios in terms of labour market vulnerabilities, both affecting immigrants and native-born workers. The results also highlight the existence of a very complex framework, due to the high heterogeneity of immigrants’ characteristics and labour market capacities to integrate migrants and also to promote good conditions for the native-born population.Originality/valueThe picture emerging from this study and the evaluation of the policies and legislation in force to cope with migration and to promote integration suggests some reflections on the most efficacious actions to take in order to improve migrants’ integration, counteracting social exclusion and promoting economic growth.

City Manager Turnover Revisited: Effects of the Institutional Structure and Length of Tenure on City Manager Turnover

This study attempts to test a well-known model of city manager turnover. We use a Binary TSCS (Time-Series Cross-Section) analysis to address the problem of duration dependence, which typically occurs when the assumption is that a turnover decision at a certain point of time is entirely independent of previous decisions in the turnover data. In essence, manager turnover should be understood not as a single event at a given point in time but rather as being affected by the duration of tenure. Our empirical analysis of turnover data from 156 large cities in the United States for the period 1984–1999 indicate that, particularly when the length of manager tenure was controlled for, political push factors had significant effects on city manager turnover that were not detected by means of the ordinary logit analysis. The result on time duration suggests that longer tenure can reduce the likelihood of city manager turnover.

PENGARUH LIKUIDITAS TERHADAP NILAI PERUSAHAANMELALUI STRUKTUR MODAL PADA PERUSAHAAN MANUFAKTUR DI INDONESIA

This study attempts to answer some questions around liquidity that affect the Capital Structure and corporate value in the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The analysis is done in stages by placing the capital structure as intervening variable. The purpose of this study is to examine the influence of liquidity on capital structure and corporate value. The basic theories used to support this research are two established financial theories, namely agency theory and capital structure theory. This study uses a sample of companies in the manufacturing industry whose shares are actively traded on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The data used is data pooling, the cross section data and time series data, the period 2010 to 2014. Sampling by purposive sampling, while the analysis technique using phat analysis. First result: liquidity has a negative and significant effect on company's capital structure. Second: Liquidity has no significant effect on firm value. Third: The results of capital structure analysis have a significant effect on firm value. Fourth: Liquidity negatively affects firm value through capital structure.

Effect of Capital Structure on Financial Performance of Listed Banks in Nigeria

Corporate entities all over the world are faced with the problem of determining appropriate finance that will boost the value of the entity and maximize the wealth of shareholders. However, for overall wealth of shareholders to be met and consistent increase in value of Banks to be achievable, capital either debt in form of customers deposit or equity capital raised from investors is inevitable. This study therefore examined the effect of capital structure on the performance of some selected banks in Nigeria. The objectives were to examine the relationship that exists between capital structure and financial performance and to investigate the effect of capital structure on the financial performance of quoted deposit money banks in Nigeria.
 To achieve these, a cross sectional time series secondary data covering the period of seven years (2012-2018) was extracted from the audited financial statement of ten (10) banks listed on the floor of stock exchange. The descriptive statistics, Pearson moment correlation and multiple linear regressions were used.
 The correlation results showed that capital structure is negatively correlated with financial performance (ROA and ROE). Result from panel regression revealed that debt to equity though significant, impacted negatively on return on assets and return on equity , asset tangibility significantly impacted return on asset but insignificantly impacted return on shareholder’s equity and also Age have a significant impact on return on asset and insignificant effect on return on equity .
 This study therefore concluded that capital structure have a negative effect on the financial performance of deposit money banks in Nigeria and recommended that appropriate proportion of capital should be tailored towards viable investment opportunities for maximum return of shareholders wealth and increase in value of the firm. More so, while finance manager is alert to the movement in the stock market, banks should take precautionary measures for mitigating credit risk associated with lending and borrowing.

Who's at the helm? When party organization matters for party strategy

ABSTRACT Why do parties change their policy positions? A growing literature suggests that the internal balance of power between leaders and activists affects how a party responds to changing environmental incentives. This paper explores when and how party organization matters for party strategy. It argues that a key prediction – that leadership-dominated and activist-dominated parties are responsive to the positional shifts of the mean voter and the party voter, respectively – is conditional on two factors, namely a party's electoral performance and party system polarization. Cross-sectional time series analyses of fifty-five parties in 10 European democracies between 1977 and 2003 confirm that (1) leadership-dominated parties' responsiveness to the mean voter decreases as their electoral fortunes improve, (2) increases as a party system becomes more polarized, while (3) activist-dominated parties more reliably follow the positional shifts of the party voter. This study's findings have important implications for our understanding of how intra-party politics influences inter-party competition, and thus democratic representation more generally.