Cross-sectional Time-series Data Research Articles

Democratic Age, Credibility, And Exchange Rate Policies

The inconsistency between the deeds and words of national governments on their exchange rate policies has long been recognized in the international political economy literature. The political roots of this inconsistency, however, has only begun to be studied despite its strong implication for institutional performances. This paper studies how 'democratic age' affects a government's choice between under- and over-reporting the stability of its exchange rates, the phenomena also known as 'fear of floating' and 'fear of pegging', respectively. Focusing on the incentives and constraints democratic age generates on governments, the paper finds that younger democracies with high (low) policy transparency are more likely to have fear of floating (pegging). This argument is tested on time-series cross-section data covering 73 democracies from 1981 to 2010.

Political Context, Government Redistribution, and the Public’s Response to Growing Economic Inequality

While most Americans appear to acknowledge the large gap between the rich and the poor in the United States, it is not clear how the public has responded to recent changes in income inequality. The goal of this study is to make sense of several existing, and at times conflicting, perspectives on how changes in inequality affect public preferences for government action, by demonstrating that each of these perspectives can simultaneously coexist in a logical manner. The argument put forward here is that growing inequality systematically shapes preferences for redistribution in different ways, depending on two important factors: economic context and the type of redistribution being considered. Using time-series cross-sectional data covering over three decades and all 50 states, the findings show that context does affect the degree of the public’s response to inequality and that support for action is stronger for particular types of redistributive policy.

Blessing and Curse

Recent studies on the subnational resource curse contend that subnational rentier units suffer from the same nondemocratic tendency as their national counterparts. However, subnational rentier states worldwide exhibit contrasting political outcomes. Why are some subnational rentier units politically competitive whereas others are not? This article argues that rent-sharing regimes—the fiscal institutions for sharing resource revenues among levels of government—condition political competitiveness at the provincial level. Using novel time-series cross-sectional data on Argentina, a case with several hydrocarbon-rich units with exogenously created rent-sharing regimes, I show that oil creates negative political effects at the provincial level only when these institutions do not share—or share minor amounts of—rents with municipal governments. Conversely, political competition emerges when rent-sharing regimes distribute rents to municipal governments, as this shrinks large provincial budgets, allows municipalities to deliver public and private goods, and gives municipal politicians fiscal independence from provincial governments.

'Gimme Shelter': The Role of Democracy and Institutional Quality in Disaster Preparedness

Natural disasters cause suffering for millions of people around the globe every year and as climate change unfolds the likelihood of natural catastrophes is increasing. While weather shocks, such as earthquakes, tornadoes, and floods are beyond our control, a governments’ capacity to protect populations largely determines the degree of human suffering in disasters. Democracies, with freedom of speech, broad public participation and representation, are believed to protect their populations better than non-democratic regimes. However, democratic institutions are insufficient for securing protection from disasters in contexts of corruption, poor planning and public administration incompetence. We argue that the effect of democracy on the extent of human suffering in disasters is contingent on the ability of governments to implement their tasks or the quality of implementing institutions. We test this interaction hypothesis using time series cross-sectional data from the Varieties of Democracy project, the Quality of Government dataset and data from the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. The results show that more democracy is associated with fewer people being affected by natural disasters only in settings where institutional quality is high. When institutional quality is low, more people seem to suffer in democracies than in authoritarian states.

ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON AMAN AND BORO RICE YIELDS IN BANGLADESH

Despite substantial volumes of research on the impacts of climate change on rice productivity little attention has been paid in evaluating how these impacts differ between traditional varieties (TVs) and high yielding varieties (HYVs). In this study, Aman and Boro rice yields are examined, as respective examples. Cross-sectional time series data over 41 years for four climatic regions of Bangladesh has been used to explore this issue. Each region was examined individually and then across region comparisons were made to try to understand the impacts of major climate variables: average temperature, temperature range, and seasonal rainfall. Using both linear regression and panel data regression models, the major findings are that HYVs for both Aman and Boro rice varieties have less capacity to cope with changing climate conditions in contrast to TVs. Therefore, government should help to promote research and development aimed at developing more climate tolerant varieties, particularly temperature tolerant HYVs which have the potential to solidify the country’s food security situation at least in terms of food availability.

The impact of accession to the European Union on suicide rates: A cross-national time-series analysis

Building upon prior research, this study examines the effects of European Union (EU) accession on suicide rates in the Eastern European countries that joined the EU in 2004 and 2007 using pooled cross-sectional time-series data that cover approximately 20 years (1990–2011). Results from fixed-effects regression analyses indicate that EU entry has no effect on total suicide rates and suicide rates among males, but has a negative effect on female suicide rates in the fully specified models. In addition, we find that EU entry also has a negative effect on the ratio of suicide rates to an aggregated indicator of lethal violence (homicide rates + suicide rates, or the suicide–homicide ratio) for the total population and for the female population. Consistent with previous research, we find some significant negative effects on suicide rates for economic growth and life expectancy at birth, and a positive effect for females. When interpreted with reference to the ‘stream analogy’ for understanding the two major forms of lethal violence (suicide and homicide), our findings suggest that the impact of any increase in the ‘flow’ of lethal violence associated with EU entry is likely to be manifested in an ‘outward’ rather than ‘inward’ direction for the nations in the sample. Our analyses also reaffirm previous research documenting appreciable gender differences in lethal violence.

Revolutionary Leaders and Mass Killing

This article argues that revolutionary leaders are more willing to commit mass killing than nonrevolutionary leaders. Revolutionary leaders are more ideologically committed to transforming society, more risk tolerant, and more likely to view the use of violence as appropriate and effective. Furthermore, such leaders tend to command highly disciplined and loyal organizations, built in the course of revolutionary struggles, that can perpetrate mass killing. This study uses time series cross-sectional data from 1955 to 2004 to demonstrate that revolutionary leaders are more likely to initiate genocide or politicide than nonrevolutionary leaders. The violent behaviors of revolutionary leaders are not limited to the immediate postrevolutionary years but also occur later in their tenure. This demonstrates that the association of revolutionary leaders and mass killing is not simply indicative of postrevolutionary instability. This article also provides evidence for the importance of exclusionary ideologies in motivating revolutionary leaders to inflict massive violence.

Presidential coattails and electoral coordination in multilevel elections: Comparative lessons from Brazil

This article seeks to understand how concurrent presidential and gubernatorial elections in strong federal systems affect electoral coordination and coattails voting between national and subnational levels of government. We seek to determine whether the nationalizing effect of presidential elections can overcome the strong incentives for regionalization that can arise in federal systems. We use individual-level survey data and time-series cross-sectional electoral data from Brazil, a federal country with decentralized electoral institutions that has recently adopted concurrent presidential and gubernatorial elections. We find that the congruence between national and subnational elections increases when elections are temporally proximate and the effective number of presidential candidates is low. In short, the coattails effect can not only operate “horizontally,” by shaping national legislative elections, but also “vertically,” by shaping subnational elections.

Terrorism, Counterterrorism Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment1

Foreign investors generally refrain from entering countries with high political risks. As an often seen type of political risk, terrorism may deter foreign investors by creating an unsafe investment environment. This paper explores whether terrorism reduces foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and argues that foreign investors adjust their information by observing whether the host country has the capability to deal with terrorism. Foreign aid from the United States used specifically for counterterrorism is an effective signal of a recipient's counterterrorism potential. Using two commonly used terrorism data sets and drawing upon a time-series cross-sectional data analysis, this paper finds that while terrorism can be an obstacle to FDI inflows, countries that receive more counterterrorism aid are less vulnerable to this adverse effect. It also shows that conflict-tied aid mitigates the negative effect of terrorism on FDI because it sends a similar signal to foreign investors.

The Political Economy of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Areas

Recent studies have hypothesized that the Chinese state has sought to use outward flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) to Latin America and Africa in order to promote broad national interests, including securing China's access to oil and other natural resources, and pressuring states to abandon diplomatic ties with Taiwan. To date, however, there has been little systematic empirical study of the influence of these factors on Chinese FDI. In this study, we attempt to fill this gap in the literature. Utilizing a cross-sectional time-series data set for 66 countries for the period of 2003–2010, we investigate the effects of various economic and political variables on Chinese FDI in Latin America and Africa. We find that Chinese FDI is influenced by trade flows and natural resources in host economies, including oil resources and ores and metals, while also being directed to markets with lower per capita income. In addition, the study adds to the prior literature by demonstrating empirically that Chinese FDI flows are negatively associated with recipients who maintain diplomatic recognition of Taiwan. The analysis also suggests that, with the exception of natural resources (oil), there is little overlap in the determinants of Chinese and US FDI.

Money Supply, Class Power, and Inflation

Recent sociological work shows that pro-market neoliberal policies across advanced capitalist countries are due to distributional struggle between classes in the 1970s and 1980s. The orthodox monetarist view, alternatively, sees neoliberal reform as a nonpolitical attempt to end the stagflation crisis of the 1970s. From this perspective, monetary and fiscal expansions brought high inflation, and central bank discipline and government austerity is the solution; but the recent trend of low inflation despite accelerating money growth and government spending contradicts this view. Analyses of time-series cross-section data for 23 OECD countries from 1960 to 2009 support the thesis that the rise and fall of inflation is more about distribution of power between labor and capital than about monetary and fiscal discipline. Inflation in the 1970s originated from a strong working class and hurt capital more than it did workers, while neoliberal repression of workers’ power has kept inflation low from the 1980s onward. Disempowerment of labor created rising inequality and economic imbalances that fueled a financial boom underlying the global financial crisis of 2008. Re-empowering labor is a remedy to such imbalances and the subsequent deflationary pressure.

The Role of Managerial Fit in Determining Organizational Performance: An Empirical Assessment of Presidents in U.S. Higher Education

The question of managerial fit—the congruence between a manager and his or her environment—has become widely debated by policymakers, practitioners, and scholars from a number of fields as the occurrence of non-internal management hires has increased across many types of organizations. Although many assume that higher levels of fit in an organization will generate better performance, others argue that misfits are better suited at leading organizations as motivated change agents. In this study, a measure of person–organization fit is created using original cross-sectional time-series data on U.S. university presidents from 1993 to 2009. Findings indicate that maximizing fit is not always ideal and that fit has a nonlinear relationship with organizational performance such that some fit is healthy but high fit can be detrimental for student performance measures.

Multilevel Mixed Analysis and Mapping on Divorce Problem in UAE

Despite the wealth of research investigating the divorce problem in the developed countries, few and inconsistent studies investigated this problem at emirate-level in developing countries, such as United Arab Emirates (UAE). The Questions are raised whether divorce is changed over time and whether clustering in divorce exists within emirates in UAE. The objectives are to investigate the change in divorce over time, examining the variation between- and within emirates, determining whether the clustering in divorce within-emirates exists and forecasting divorce in each emirate for the next years. The study design was cross-sectional time-series data. Multilevel mixed-effects linear regression was carried out. The data of 7 emirates over 19 years (1995-2013) were obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics. After calculating the Divorce Rate (DR), visual inspection for the DR was investigated using mapping. Three multilevel models for the DR were estimated and comparison between these models was explained in Intra-Class Correlation (ICC), the proportional change in the variance of the DR and the deviance. The p<0.01 of Wald-χ2 was found significant in all models. Given 95% confidence interval, the fixed- and random-effects in all models were found significant. The ICC results were found significant, more than 46%, in all models. In terms of the statistical and social epidemiological concepts of contextual phenomena confirm that the DR from the same emirate is more similar to each other than those from different emirates. Using the time as a predictor for the DR reduced slightly the within-emirates variance and inflated dramatically the between-emirates variance.

Relationship between Board Remuneration and Financial Performance in the Kenyan Financial Services Industry

Board remuneration has attracted considerable interest amongst financial analysts and scholars as it is seen to be a deterrent to financial scandals that have rocked corporates in the 21st Century. This study sought to determine the effect of board remuneration on financial performance, focussing on commercial banks, insurance companies and investment companies listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange from 2003 to 2013. Grounding the study on the agency theory, the study postulated that board remuneration will positively influence financial performance. Secondary data was obtained from audited financial statements for the 11 years ending 2013. Board remuneration was measured by director annual fees, while financial performance was measured using the proxies; return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), dividend yield (DY), and earnings per share (EPS). A linear regression model was used on pooled cross-sectional time-series data to draw the inferences of the study. The results disclose significant variations in the level of board remuneration across the companies and a significant relationship between board remuneration and DY, but not ROA, ROE, and EPS. When disaggregated to financial market segments, the results confirmed a statistically significant relationship between board remuneration and with dividend yield in the banking sector. The same was not reported for ROA, ROE, and EPS. In the insurance segment, there was a statistical significance between board remuneration and ROA only, while in the investment sector, there was no significant relationship between board remuneration and financial performance measures.

Candidate‐centred electoral systems and change in incumbent vote share: A cross‐national and longitudinal analysis

AbstractThis study examines if prime minister's parties are punished or rewarded by voters to a lesser extent in candidate‐centred electoral systems compared to party‐centred systems. Candidate‐centred systems allow the voters greater choice in determining the fate of individual candidates at the district level and create incentives for candidates to cultivate a personal vote rather than pursuing a party vote. Voters in these systems are more likely to focus on individual candidates than on parties, thus fostering individual accountability at the expense of collective (party) accountability. Cross‐sectional time‐series data for 23 OECD countries between 1961 and 2014 were analysed. Two indices of intraparty efficiency (the Farrell–McAllister Index and the Shugart Index) were used to capture the candidate‐centredness of electoral systems. The analysis of aggregate‐level data with almost 300 observations showed that incumbent parties tend to win or lose fewer votes in candidate‐centred electoral systems. This effect has become stronger over time. Candidate‐centredness has a weak moderating impact on the state of the economy on the degree of public sanctioning of government parties.

Contracting with Whom? The Differential Effects of Investment Treaties on FDI

ABSTRACTUnder what conditions can governments use international commitments such as Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) to attract foreign direct investment (FDI)? Although numerous studies have attempted to answer this question, none considers how investment treaties may have heterogeneous affects across industry. I argue BIT effect is strongest when the obsolescing bargaining problem between firms and governments is most protracted, namely, when FDI relies on strong contracts between firms and states. Using a time series cross-sectional data set of 114 developing countries from 1985 to 2011, I find BITs are associated with increases in infrastructure investment, an industry particularly reliant on the sanctity of government contracts, but not with total FDI inflows. Moreover, BITs with strong arbitration provisions display the strongest statistical effect on infrastructure investment, while BITs that do not provide investors with such protections are not associated with increased investment. My results have implications for both scholarship on the relationship between governments and multinational firms as well as for the study of international institutions more broadly. To properly ascertain the effects of international treaties and institutions, scholars should consider not just whether institutions constrain or inform—or matter at all—but also the extent to which the targets of institutions have heterogeneous responses to them.

A Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Panel Models with Endogenous Rarely Changing Variables

Whether democratic and non-democratic regimes perform differently in social provision policy is an important issue to social scientists and policy makers. As political regimes are rarely changing, their long-term or dynamic effects on the outcome are of concern to researchers when they evaluate how political regimes affect social policy. However, estimating the dynamic effects of rarely changing variables in the analysis of time-series cross-sectional data by conventional estimators may be problematic when the unit effects are included in the model specification. This article proposes a model to account for and estimate the correlation between the unit effects and explanatory variables. Applying the proposed model to 18 Latin American countries, this article finds evidence that democracy has a positive effect on social spending both in the short and long term.

Does religion count for religious parliamentary representation? Evidence from Early Day Motions

ABSTRACTThe article addresses one facet of the representation puzzle, namely substantive minority representation in the UK House of Commons. It examines whether a religious Jewish and Muslim minority background stimulates politicians from these backgrounds to address issues of concern for Jewish and Muslim minority groups in Early Day Motions (EDMs), and compares the effects from identity-based and institutional predictors. The study draws upon previous studies that used low-cost parliamentary activities to assess the impact of gender and ethnic minority identities on the representation of women and ethnic minorities, employing quantitative content analysis and time-series cross-sectional data analysis to examine the content of EDMs sponsored by members of parliament from Jewish and Muslim background (plus a control group) between 1997 and 2012. The analyses test for the effects of religious background and institutional predictors on the likelihood of referring to minority issues. They show that identity-based predictors such as a religious background are vastly inferior to institutional factors, including a legislative role, representing a constituency with a significant proportion of minority population, and the length of parliamentary service, in determining such references.

A Comparative Study of the Effects of Institutional Arrangements in Municipal Solid Waste Services in Korea

In Korea, local governments are primarily responsible for providing municipal solid waste services to citizens. This paper examines the effects of different institutional arrangements and characteristics on cost savings, efficiency gains and productivity in the delivery of municipal solid waste services to citizens. In order to carry out this research, a hybrid cost function approach was employed, and cross-sectional time-series data from local governments of Korea covering a ten-year period (2000–2009) were used for empirical analysis. Empirical findings indicated that there were no effects of contracting-out on cost savings, efficiency and productivity gains in Korea. Specifically, the solid waste service costs were not significantly lower under contracting-out than under direct public delivery. In addition, contrary to the arguments of the proponents of privatization or contracting-out, efficiency and productivity gains were actually higher under direct public delivery than when contracted out.

Who commits to the rule of law? Constrained government and foreign direct investment in postcommunist states

Research linking credible commitments to the rule of law in terms of property rights and contract enforcement is a hallmark of recent efforts to explain economic growth and development. However, many postcommunist states have had difficulty making such commitments and spurring growth. Many argue political polarization prevents states from reforming laws and protecting property rights in some countries whereas single-party governance renders state promises incredible in others. I analyze pooled cross-sectional time-series data for twenty-four postcommunist countries and provide evidence effective constraints among elected officials act as democratic commitment mechanisms rendering government policies credible.