Cross-sectional Time-series Data Research Articles

A decade of Eurasian integration: An ex-post non-parametric assessment of the Eurasian economic union

This paper provides a sound ex-post evaluation of the impact of the Eurasian integration on member countries’ bilateral trade after a decade of implementation. We overcome the main limitations of current empirical analyses on the effects of trade agreements, namely the aggregation of tariff and non-tariff barriers and the likely self-selection bias, by applying a non-parametric method specifically designed to fully exploit time-series cross-sectional data. We thus compare the trade flows of the member countries in the Eurasian agreement with the exporter-importer pairs located in the Eurasian continent most similar in terms of pre-treatment trends and features. Our results confirm the previous literature about the lack of a significant impact of the Eurasian customs union, but find more positive net effects of the more recent integration steps. Our results ask for conveying additional efforts to complete the Eurasian integration and let its member countries fully benefit from its hoped-for long-term effects.

Moving the electoral goalposts: State and local strategies of electoral intervention in the U.S.

Central to the partisan divide in American politics is disagreement over the fundamental legitimacy of American elections. Due to the decentralized nature of election administration in the US, these disagreements have led to a complex web of heterogeneous electoral institutions. Scholars have made impressive progress on untangling the effects of these different institutions — unfortunately, less is known about the sources of adoption of such proposals. Using time-series cross-sectional data on the adoption of various electoral policies by state governments from 2001–2018, I examine the role of politics and identity in shaping the types of electoral interventions adopted by state legislatures during an important period of increasing politicization of such interventions. Applying dynamic panel models and constructing a novel measure of the concentration of Black population within competitive congressional districts, I find that the effects of race, competition, and ideology on electoral interventions differ across both partisan lines and issue areas.

Determinants of private-sector antibiotic consumption in India: findings from a quasi-experimental fixed-effects regression analysis using cross-sectional time-series data, 2011–2019

The consumption of antibiotics varies between and within countries. However, our understanding of the key drivers of antibiotic consumption is largely limited to observational studies. Using Indian data that showed substantial differences between states and changes over years, we conducted a quasi-experimental fixed-effects regression study to examine the determinants of private-sector antibiotic consumption. Antibiotic consumption decreased by 10.2 antibiotic doses per 1000 persons per year for every ₹1000 (US$12.9) increase in per-capita gross domestic product. Antibiotic consumption decreased by 46.4 doses per 1000 population per year for every 1% increase in girls’ enrollment rate in tertiary education. The biggest determinant of private sector antibiotic use was government spending on health—antibiotic use decreased by 461.4 doses per 1000 population per year for every US$12.9 increase in per-capita government health spending. Economic progress, social progress, and increased public investment in health can reduce private-sector antibiotic use.

Unions, technology and social class inequalities in the US, 1984–2019

Earnings inequality in the US has risen in recent decades, with social class inequalities being a central component of this trend. While technological change and de-unionisation are considered key contributors to increased earnings dispersion, their specific influence on inequalities between employees’ social classes has received limited attention. This study theoretically and empirically investigates the relationship between technological change, de-unionisation and the earnings trajectories of occupational classes from 1984 to 2019. The empirical analysis uses industry-level time-series cross-section data and industry-level measures of union density, computer investments and class earnings. Descriptive analyses show earnings growth for non-manual classes and stagnant or declining earnings for manual ones. Results provide limited evidence that computerisation affected classes differently in the industries where introduced. In contrast, industry-level de-unionisation reinforced class inequalities in two ways. First, unionisation exhibited a stronger association with lower-class earnings. Second, manual workers were more prevalent in industries that experienced substantial declines in union density.

Varying effects of public pensions: Pension spending and old-age employment under different pension regimes

Socioeconomic consequences of pension reforms have often been discussed without careful consideration of institutional contexts, despite the fact that institutional designs of public pensions differ substantially across countries. This study argues that the outcomes of pension reforms vary depending on the institutional structure of public pensions, by showing that the associations between public pension spending and old-age employment rates of different socio-demographic groups vary across different institutional contexts. Using time-series cross-section data from 20 European countries and the United States from 1998 to 2019, the study examines how changes in public pension spending ‘per older person’, a comparable measure for the welfare state effort towards old-age income security, are associated with gender- and education-specific employment rates in old age. The study also explores how these associations differ under different pension regimes, constructed based on the degree to which financing and benefit structures exhibit redistributive orientations. The results reveal complex gender and educational gradients in the relationship between public pension spending and old-age employment. Female employment rates, especially among the low-educated, are more sensitive to changes in pension spending in the ‘Beveridgean’ regime that focuses on basic income security. In the Bismarckian regime characterized by earnings-related pensions, educational differences in the marginal effects on male employment rates are, in particular, larger. Future pension reforms balancing the goal of activation and social equity should therefore consider the longstanding institutional design of public pensions.

Ideological cleavages beyond the nation-state: The emergence of transnational political groups in international parliaments

AbstractTerritorial divisions are commonly believed to dominate the international realm, supposedly leaving no room for ideological distinctions to take shape. However, the formation of over fifty transnational political groups (TPGs) across thirteen international parliaments challenges this assumption, calling into question the previously accepted insignificance of ideology beyond the boundaries of the nation-state. Previously unexplored in comparative perspective, this paper investigates TPGs’ puzzling existence and delineates the conditions for their emergence within international parliaments. The theoretical argument is that homogeneity across the member states of the international parliament along three dimensions – political systems, economic development levels and geographical proximity – fosters the creation of transnational political groups. Results from regression analysis on time series cross-sectional data lend support to the theory. With the rise of international parliamentary institutions and their increased involvement in supranational decision-making over time, it becomes highly important to understand how they organize as well as the implications of their institutional designs.

Understanding the Impact of Demographic Factors and Education Policy on Enrollment Trends: A Study in China

This study addresses the complex interplay between demographic factors and educational enrollment trends in China, with a focus on understanding how population dynamics and education policies influence enrollment patterns. Utilizing a cross-sectional design and time series data from 2010 to 2020, the research examines the effects of population size, structure, distribution, and birth rate on enrollment trends, moderated by education policy assessments. The findings reveal significant correlations between demographic factors and enrollment trends. Specifically, as population size increases, enrollment tends to decrease, while decreasing birth rates are associated with increased enrollment. Urban areas show higher enrollment rates compared to rural areas, reflecting disparities in access to educational resources. However, the study finds mixed evidence regarding the influence of population average age on enrollment trends. Moreover, the research investigates the moderating effect of education policy assessments on demographic factors. While education policies have a positive moderation effect on population size and birth rate, the study suggests limited impact on the relationship between population average age and enrollment trends. This study provides valuable insights for educational planning and policy development, emphasizing the need for strategic adjustments to accommodate changing population dynamics and ensure continued access to quality education. Additionally, the predictive model developed in this study offers a practical tool for understanding enrollment patterns and guiding policy decisions in the educational sector. However, the study acknowledges limitations related to generalizability and the complexity of external factors influencing enrollment trends, highlighting avenues for future research to enhance the predictive model and deepen understanding of enrollment dynamics.

Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis

This paper empirically analyses the relationship between Economic Growth measured in terms of GDP Growth and Government Expenditure, GDP and Population. It employs annual cross-section time series data of the concerned variable of 117 countries from 2001 to 2021. Random Effect model was used for the analysis. The pool-ability of data is tested by the Breusch and Pagan LM test which confirmed that Pooled OLS is not appropriate for the model. The Hausman Specification Test was then conducted for choosing between the Fixed Effect or Random Effect model. The Hausman Specification Test for the Model suggests the Random effect model is appropriate for the analysis of the data. Thus, Random effect regression is used to find the consequences of explanatory and the control variables on the dependent variable. Government Expenditure as an explanatory variable has a positive relationship with the Economic Growth, even in the case of controlling for Population and the Trade Openness. Both the control variable is depicted to have positive relationship with the Economic Growth.

Where there’s a will, there’s a way: Border walls and refugees

Over the last decade, there has been a notable surge in the movement of refugees across international borders, posing significant challenges for the international community. In response, various policy measures have been implemented, including the construction of border walls, with the aim of impeding refugee influx. However, scholars have expressed doubts regarding the effectiveness of these fortifications, suggesting that walls merely redirect migrants to alternative routes, discourage return migration, or alter migrants’ cost–benefit calculations. Despite these concerns, there has been a lack of rigorous testing to support or refute these claims beyond case-specific evidence. This article addresses this research gap by thoroughly examining the arguments surrounding the impact of border fencing on refugee flows. We conduct a systematic, cross-national test of these arguments with a two-way fixed-effects estimator, an equivalence test, and a recently developed matching estimator designed for use on time-series cross-sectional data. Our results strongly support those who are skeptical of the impact of walls. We consistently demonstrate either that border fencing has not had any causal impact on refugee flows between 1970 and 2017 or that the statistical state-of-the-art is incapable of discerning that true effect. In either scenario, the evidence suggests that border fences fail to deliver the anticipated outcomes. These findings hold significant implications as violence-driven refugee flows persist, underscoring that while walls may serve as politically attractive tools for populist leaders, their actual deterrent effects are highly questionable at best.

獨裁國家之下的權力個人化統治與社會福利支出：跨國資料分析

傳統觀點認為，因為選舉競爭促使民主國家領導人採取社會政策以爭取公民政治支持，所以民主國家比獨裁國家具有更多福利支出。然而，由於獨裁國家沒有選舉、或其選舉並不自由和／或不公平，因此本文的研究問題是：獨裁者與其盟友之間的權力分布如何影響福利支出？本文基於晚近發展的權力分享理論，討論權力分享結構對於威權國家福利支出的影響。當權力個人化統治程度較低，獨裁者面臨被其他精英取代的風險。我們認為，獨裁者藉由福利政策向公民分配資源，換取公民政治支持。當權力更集中於獨裁者，增加權力個人化統治將減少福利支出。我們使用1961年至2006年90個獨裁國家時間序列橫斷面資料檢驗我們論點。我們發現，總福利支出隨著獨裁者權力個人化統治的增加而減少。這種影響在不同模型設定中皆相當穩健。此一發現有助於理解獨裁國家權力個人化統治與福利支出間的聯繫。本文貢獻在於指出福利支出不僅由文獻認為的政權領導人需要公眾支持所決定，在獨裁國家中也是由其統治聯盟內部權力分布所決定。Conventional wisdom posits that democracies have more social welfare expenditure than dictatorships because electoral competition induces democratic leaders to adopt social policies in exchange for ordinary citizens’ political support. However, as elections are absent, unfree, and/or unfair in autocracies, the research question in this paper is: How does the distribution of power between dictators and their allies influence welfare spending? This paper discusses the power-sharing structure’s impact on welfare spending based on the theory of power-sharing in authoritarian regimes. When power is less personalized, dictators face the risk of being replaced by other elites. We argue that dictators allocate resources to citizens through welfare policies in exchange for their political support. Increasing personalism rules will reduce welfare spending when power is concentrated on dictators. We test our arguments using time-series cross-sectional data for 90 dictatorships from 1961 to 2006. We find that total welfare spending decreases as the personalization of power of the dictator increases. This effect is robust to different model specifications. This finding helps us to understand the connection between the personalization of power and welfare spending in dictatorships. This paper contributes to the literature by showing that welfare spending is determined by regime leaders’ need for public support as the conventional wisdom suggests, and by the power dynamics within their ruling coalitions in dictatorships.

Fiscal Moderating Effect for Sustaining the Upstream Petroleum Field Economics and Profitability: Inventory and Purchasing Performance

Introduction: The study literature's obvious limits with a complete fiscal term model for moderating variables are crucial to our investigation. In order to preserve petroleum field economics and profitability in Indonesia's petroleum business context, this study examines the relationship between material inventory performance, purchasing performance, and fiscal term moderating influence with an agglomeration approach. Theoretical Framework: Industry character strongly influences the inventory and purchasing performance relationship (Basu & Wang, 2011); Hofer et al., 2012); (Priniotakis & Argyropoulos, 2018). Despite circumstances and fiscal terms that were not adaptive to environmental dynamism (Acquah-Andoh et al., 2019), Production Sharing Contract (PSC) Contractors' upstream field economics deteriorated compared to the initial (Paramita, 2022). Financial term in fossil sector draws investors, ensuring fair economic performance and cost balance (Mardiana et al., 2019; Yun et al., 2020). Methodology: Cross-sectional time series data were collected over five years from 26 Production Sharing Contract (PSC) Contractors from Indonesia's upstream oil industry in the preliminary Plan of Development (POD) phase. Econometric analysis using multivariate structural equation modeling will test the model. Results and Discussions: The results showed that different financial performance agglomerations showed an inconsistent relationship between inventory performance, petroleum field economics, and profitability, but purchasing performance showed a positive relationship in any scheme, and fiscal terms significantly strengthened the relationship between variables. Conclusion: This study sheds light on whether fiscal term strengthening variables in the upstream petroleum company affect decision-making.

Speed kills? Quantifying the association between police traffic stops, types of stops, and motor vehicle collisions

BackgroundMotor vehicle crashes (MVCs) are a leading cause of traumatic death and injury. Police traffic stops (PTS) are a common approach to enforcing motor vehicle laws intended to prevent MVCs. However, it is unclear which types of PTS are most effective. This study examined the relationship of PTS subtypes among municipal police patrols on non-interstate roads and MVCs and MVC-related deaths. MethodsPTS subtype data were characterized from six North Carolina cities: Charlotte, Durham, Fayetteville, Greensboro, Raleigh, and Winston-Salem. The primary outcomes of this study were yearly non-interstate MVC and MVC-related death rates per 100 population. The data were analyzed as balanced time-series cross-sectional data. The statistical analysis accounted for time-dependent and city-dependent confounding. We used a two-way fixed effects model to analyze the relationship between PTS and MVC or MVC-related deaths. We also utilized the difference in difference (DID) analysis to analyze if the reduction of PTS following a 2012 policing administrative change in Fayetteville had an association with MVC or MVC-related deaths. ResultsWe found no significant overall association between non-interstate PTS and MVCs (Coeff: -0.00006; p = 0.43) or MVC-related deaths (Coeff: -0.00011; p = 0.15). Panel regression suggested no significant relationship between MVCs and MVC-related deaths and PTS related to driving while impaired (p = 0.36), safe movement violation (p = 0.43), or seatbelt violations (p = 0.17). However, speed limit violations (Coeff: -0.00025; p = 0.032) and stop-light/sign violations (Coeff: -0.00147; p = 0.017) related to PTS significantly reduced MVC-related deaths. The DID regression showed no significant impact on MVCs (p = 0.924) or MVC-related deaths (0.706) before and after the police reform period. ConclusionsThe evidence regarding the absence of an overall association and any association with most PTS subtypes suggest that PTS are not effective for MVC death prevention. Policymakers may proceed with exploring modifications to policing efforts without detriments to public safety as defined by MVC and MVC-related deaths. Level of evidenceRetrospective epidemiological study, level IV

Surveillance of Infant Formula Shortages Using Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children Administrative Data

ObjectiveTo quantify self-reported difficulty accessing Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC)-issued infant formula among participants early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, to determine if infant formula redemption was associated with self-reported difficulty accessing infant formula, and to quantify changes in formula redemption during the 2022–2023 US infant formula shortages. DesignA cross-sectional study and time series data. SettingFamilies participating in the WIC program in the Los Angeles metropolitan area from November 2019 to June 2023. ParticipantsFamilies with infants (aged 0–12 months) issued infant formula by WIC with a completed 2020 Los Angeles County WIC Survey (n = 1,897) or issued infant formula by a large WIC program in Southern California between November 2019 and June 2023 (n = 109,135). Main Outcome MeasuresIncidence of ≥ 30% reduction in infant formula redemption and interval-scaled infant formula redemption. AnalysisSpecial Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children formula redemption data were matched to 2020 Los Angeles County WIC Survey data to determine if self-reported difficulty accessing infant formula was associated with administrative infant formula redemption data using negative binomial regression and were used to quantify the prevalence and severity of incomplete formula redemption during 2020–2023 formula shortages using ordinal logistic regression (outcome: interval-scaled formula redemption). ResultsFew (13.0%) caregivers reported difficulty accessing the WIC-issued formula early in the COVID-19 pandemic. The 2.8% who reported an unresolved shortage early in the COVID-19 pandemic had 201% higher rates of ≥ 30% declines in formula redemption (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 3.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.57–5.79, P < 0.001) than those with no difficulties. Incomplete formula redemption odds were significantly elevated throughout the COVID-19 pandemic from March 2020 to January 2022 and increased further during the 2022–2023 infant formula shortages from February 2022 to June 2023, reaching 342% higher in October 2022 than February 2020 (odds ratio, 4.42; 95% confidence interval, 4.14–4.72; P < 0.001). Conclusions and ImplicationsSpecial Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children redemption data are an adequate proxy for population-level infant formula access issues among households with low income but are insufficiently sensitive for screening at a household level. US formula shortages (2020–2023) demonstrate the need for improved coordination between nutrition assistance programs, regulatory bodies, and commercial food systems, particularly during acute supply crises.

The Ambivalent Effect of Autocratization on Domestic Terrorism

This study asks if a decline of democratic regime attributes affects the volume of domestic terrorism. We argue that different forms of autocratization may stimulate or suppress terrorist activities. Democratic backsliding may dampen domestic terrorism, while autocratic consolidation may make autocracies more vulnerable to terrorism. This study empirically tests these assumptions on time-series cross-sectional data on domestic terrorism in 182 countries between 1970 and 2020 with a difference-in-differences design. We find that democratic backsliding reduces the amount of terrorism in the short to medium term. Autocratic consolidation increases the number of terrorist attacks in the short to medium term.

POVERTY PANEL DATA MODELING IN SOUTH SUMATERA

Poverty is still a major problem on Sumatra's island, despite abundant natural resources potential, such as mining and plantation products. Sumatra Island consists of 10 provinces divided into three regions: Northern Sumatra, Central Sumatra, and Southern Sumatra. The island of Sumatra has the highest number of poor people in the Southern Sumatra region, which reaches 2.88 million people. Poverty is an integrated concept with five dimensions: poverty, powerlessness, vulnerability to emergencies, dependency, and alienation, both geographically and sociologically. One method that can be used to analyze poverty data problems is panel data regression analysis, which combines two data, namely cross-sectional data and time series data. It is expected to produce more in-depth and comprehensive information, both the interrelationships between the variables and their development within a certain period. The panel data was related to poverty and included 60 districts in the southern Sumatra region from 2018 to 2020. This study aimed to model poverty panel data in Southern Sumatra. Three estimation methods were used in the panel data regression, including the Common Effect Model (CEM), Fixed Effect Model (FEM), and Random Effect Model (REM. The results of the model specification test show that the best model for estimating the percentage of poor people in the Southern Sumatra region is the Fixed Effect Model (FEM), with a value of R2 = 75.57%. The results of the significance test show that the variables that significantly influence the percentage of poverty in the Southern Sumatra region using the FEM model are the open unemployment rate (), life expectancy (), and the average length of schooling ().

The Impact of FDI on Innovation in Developing Countries: The Mediating Role of Governance

While most studies in the existing literature focused on the direct relationship between FDI and innovation, this paper further analyzes whether governance in developing economies mediates this relationship. A 25-year cross-sectional time-series data from 1995 to 2019 were collected from the World Bank Development Indicators and the Worldwide Governance Indicators (2019) databases. This panel dataset was estimated using a system GMM. A novel finding emerged from the investigation: the positive impact of FDI on domestic innovation is mediated by two governance variables: voice and accountability and regulatory quality. This suggests that the impact of FDI on domestic innovation is strengthened when combined with the effects of mediating variables. The results imply that, in the absence of high governance quality, the traditional policy prescription—such as increasing government spending on R&amp;D and education—may not be adequate to promote FDI's innovation spillovers. The findings suggest that governments in developing nations should work to improve the voice &amp; accountability and regulatory quality indicators by ensuring that citizens take part in the decision-making to promote the flow of knowledge and information that fosters innovation. This will help to strengthen the influence of FDI on domestic innovations. In addition, the governments should foster an environment that is welcoming to foreign investment and implement the appropriate regulatory reforms, such as those that strengthen competition protection, property rights protection, and transparency in the operations of the organizations implementing policies.

No substitute for the real thing? Physical and digital cultural participation in Denmark during the COVID-19 pandemic

In this research note, we analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cultural participation. We use rich survey data from Denmark to construct pooled time-series cross-sectional data for each month of the years 2019–2021 and report three findings. First, participation in physical cultural activities (e.g. attending a concert or a museum) plummeted during two lockdowns and did not return to its pre-pandemic level by the end of 2021. Second, participation in digital activities (e.g. reading a digital book or following a museum on social media) did not change much during the pandemic. Overall, we find little evidence of substitution from physical to digital cultural participation during the COVID-19 lockdown in Denmark. Third, socioeconomic gradients in cultural participation decreased during the pandemic for physical cultural participation, but did not change for digital cultural participation. We end by discussing what we can learn from our results about how social disruptions affect patterns of cultural participation and inequality.

The politics of COVID-19: Government response in comparative perspective

Since its appearance in Wuhan (China) in late December 2019, the geographical spread of COVID-19 and its constituent waves varied in pace and intensity around the world. Responses to the pandemic also varied across the world with high variation in case rates, death rates, and estimated excess mortality rates. This article addresses the political factors that may have shaped this variation. We test the proposition that the observed variation in case rates, death rates, and estimated excess mortality can be partly explained by differences across levels of democracy and autocracy, while controlling for additional possible confounding factors using a cross-section time-series data set for 155 countries between January 2020 and December 2021. The analysis begins with a theoretical consideration of the different ways in which democratic and authoritarian governments can respond to national emergencies such as a global pandemic and the expected effect of regime features on that response. For reported case rates and death rates, our analysis shows that democracies have a far worse record of pandemic response and control than autocracies. For estimated excess mortality rates and the ratio of these rates to reported death rates, however, our analysis shows that variation is more tightly captured by clusters of poor democracies and poor autocracies in particular geographies in the world. The difference in results for recorded COVID data and estimated excess mortality suggest that transparency in reporting within democracies may explain an otherwise spurious relationship between regime type and COVID response. Our findings suggest that future pandemics and other public health threats require much better coordination, control, and transparent reporting protocols that are less encumbered by politics than has been observable during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Just Right”: The Goldilocks Theory of Sanctions Busting’s Causes

Abstract When sender states impose economic sanctions on target states, are the commercially lucrative opportunities for third-party sanctions busters the same across all target states? I develop a time-series cross-sectional data sets using UN Comtrade data between 1963 and 2011 to illustrate how variation in a target state’s economic size impacts the likelihood of sanctions busting. I develop a “Goldilocks” theory of target choice, arguing that target states with medium-sized economies are “just right” with a higher probability of receiving sanctions busting trade than smaller- and larger-sized economies. These “just right” economies likely generate higher rents and more commercially lucrative opportunities than smaller- and larger-sized sanctioned economies. This study has implications for policymakers in that the very policies imposing sanctions tend to target medium-sized economies more frequently. Thus, economic sanctions may stimulate sanctions busting trade and undermine the very behavior these foreign policies are meant to correct.

How differentiated integration shapes the constraining dissensus

ABSTRACT If European Union (EU) member states realise differentiations in EU Treaties, what effect do we see on public and political support for future integration? We argue on the basis of a two-tier integration theory and postfunctionalism that differentiations of member states do lead to a preference for slower future integration by its citizens and parties. Once citizens and parties are used to opting out, they demand more of the same in the future. We test our arguments with time-series cross-sectional data for 1994–2018 on all voluntary primary law opt-outs in the EU. Our panel matching estimates demonstrate that opt-outs decrease integration support. After a differentiation, parties become more Eurosceptic on average and publics express a lower preference for future integration. This suggests that differentiated integration is not a cure against Euroscepticism that leads to a unified EU in the future but rather reinforces two-tier integration.